PDA

View Full Version : Zogby...McCain/Palin lead Obama/Biden 49.7%-45.9%


spdirty
09-06-2008, 08:17 PM
might get some a$$holes puckered up.


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1548

Released: September 06, 2008

Zogby Poll: Republicans Hold Small Post-Convention Edge

But the race is tight, as both campaigns consolidate support

UTICA, New York - Republicans John McCain and Sarah Palin left St. Paul, Minnesota, with a smallish bounce overall and some energy in key demographic groups, as the race for the presidency enters a key stage and voters begin to tune in to the contest, the latest Zogby Interactive poll finds.
Data from this poll is available here

The McCain/Palin ticket wins 49.7% support, compared to 45.9% backing for the Obama/Biden ticket, this latest online survey shows. Another 4.4% either favored someone else or were unsure.

The Ticket Horserace


9-5/6


8-29/30

McCain-Palin


49.7%


47.1%

Obama-Biden


45.9%


44.6%

Others/Not sure


4.4%


8.3%

In the two-way contest in which just McCain and Obama were mentioned in the question, the result was slightly different, with McCain leading, 48.8% to 45.7%.

One-on-One Horserace


9-5/6

McCain


48.8%

Obama


45.7%

Others/Not sure


5.5%

In a Zogby Interactive survey conducted last weekend, just after the McCain announcement that Palin would join his ticket, McCain Palin won 47.1% support, while Obama/Biden won 44.6% support.

The interactive survey of 2,312 likely voters nationwide was conducted Sept. 5-6, 2008, and carries a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points.

Pollster John Zogby: "Clearly, Palin is helping the McCain ticket. She has high favorability numbers, and has unified the Republican Party. The striking thing here in this poll is that McCain has pulled ahead among Catholics by double-digits. On the other hand, Palin is not helping with likely voting women who are not aligned with either political party. The undecided independent women voters decreased this week from 15% to 7%, but those women went to Obama. Palin is also helping among men, conservatives, notably with suburban and rural voters, and with frequent Wal-Mart shoppers, who tend to be "values" voters who like a good value for their money."

McCain's favorability rating increased from 50% favorable last week to 57% favorable now, a significant jump that indicates the GOP convention was a success. Among independent voters, 61% now have a favorable impression of him, compared to just 49% who said the same a week ago.

Nearly half - 49% - said they had a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, while 50% they had a negative impression of him. Among independent voters, 47% gave him favorable marks, compared to 46% who said the same thing last week.

Among the vice presidential candidates, 54% said they now hold a favorable view of Palin, while 42% hold an unfavorable view. While 49% have a favorable opinion of Joe Biden, 47% hold an unfavorable view of him.

Just one week ago, 23% told Zogby that they did not know enough about Palin to make a judgment about whether they held a favorable or unfavorable view of her - but this most recent survey shows just 4% were unfamiliar with her - another indication that likely voters paid attention to the GOP convention this week, which won the highest television viewership numbers ever earned by an American political convention.

-Z-

Zogby International was the most accurate pollster in every one of the last three presidential election cycles, and continues to perfect its telephone and interactive methodologies using its own live operator, in-house call center in Upstate New York, and its own secure servers for its online polling projects.

In the 2004 presidential election, not only was Zogby's telephone polling right on the money, its interactive polling also nailed the election as well. In 2006, the Zogby Interactive online polling was on the money in 17 of 18 U.S. Senate races (the 18th was within the margin of error) a record of accuracy that is unmatched in the industry - as no other leading firm even attempts to poll statewide political races using an interactive methodology for public consumption.

Bronco Bob
09-06-2008, 08:21 PM
Zogby has always been a little wacky. Notorious for getting it wrong.


http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

SonOfLe-loLang
09-06-2008, 08:29 PM
Don't pay attention to any poll over the next week...let time pass from the conventions and check the climate then

theAPAOps5
09-06-2008, 08:34 PM
I bet they are a dead heat again in a week. This will come down to the wire.

TheDave
09-06-2008, 08:38 PM
I think some of you are missing the link Bob posted...

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png (http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO.php)

Any poll can come up with a goofy result, but when you average all of them you get a much smoother line and one that shows the gap is widening.

Barring a major mistake by the Dems... This isn't going to be close.

socalorado
09-06-2008, 08:39 PM
SEE! i told you guys the "Britney Spears" tactics would work!


Ok, i gotta go, my girlfreind hates when i get on the computer over the weekend, and she's outside with an umbrella smashing my car.... i gotta go!

SoCalBronco
09-06-2008, 08:50 PM
I bet they are a dead heat again in a week. This will come down to the wire.

Usually, there is a fairly clear break on the last weekend before the election, but I generally agree with you, it will be fairly close. I think Obama needs to be ahead by about 4 points in the final polling to win on election day and he very well might.

spdirty
09-06-2008, 08:51 PM
Don't pay attention to any poll over the next week...let time pass from the conventions and check the climate then

polls wont really matter till late october/early november. I just put that up there to see the reaction.

Bronco Bob
09-06-2008, 08:56 PM
polls wont really matter till late october/early november. I just put that up there to see the reaction.

Troll. ;D

gunns
09-06-2008, 08:56 PM
Polls will start getting a little closer to the truth after the debates. And I believe they run through the middle of October just a few weeks before the election. They are too up and down and there are still those that haven't made up their mind.

SonOfLe-loLang
09-06-2008, 09:01 PM
polls wont really matter till late october/early november. I just put that up there to see the reaction.

:) nice one.

By the way, your avatar has the same effect on me that Mary Hart's voice had on Cosmo Kramer.

Mr.Meanie
09-06-2008, 09:17 PM
Polls are funny... I've never bought into them. A poll is so incredibly dependent on the sample size and who it's drawn from. It's pretty much up to the whim of the pollster... which explains why Kerry and Gore both showed better poll numbers but ultimately lost.

Just have to wait, really

Bronco Bob
09-07-2008, 12:12 AM
Polls are funny... I've never bought into them. A poll is so incredibly dependent on the sample size and who it's drawn from. It's pretty much up to the whim of the pollster... which explains why Kerry and Gore both showed better poll numbers but ultimately lost.

Just have to wait, really

Well, Gore did win the popular vote. So if the national polls showed
that Gore was ahead, they were correct, in that at a national
level the majority of voters wanted Gore to be president.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN
09-07-2008, 03:30 AM
Any poll can come up with a goofy result, but when you average all of them you get a much smoother line and one that shows the gap is widening.

Barring a major mistake by the Dems... This isn't going to be close.

Ding ding ding! :yep:

Drek
09-07-2008, 05:30 AM
I think some of you are missing the link Bob posted...

http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO600.png (http://www.pollster.com/08USPresGEMvO.php)

Any poll can come up with a goofy result, but when you average all of them you get a much smoother line and one that shows the gap is widening.

Barring a major mistake by the Dems... This isn't going to be close.

An often overlooked aspect of these numbers is that Palin has dramatically increased McCain's lead in already solidly red states. He was well ahead of Obama in the southern states, but only by high single digits. They're now topping double digits.

This indicates a consolidation of the base, as in Democratic strongholds Obama has held similarly strong leads.

Meanwhile though Obama has been widening his gap in battleground states. Michigan, Minnesota, and Pennsylvania are getting out of McCain's reach. Recent Ohio polls actually point to it being a few points for Obama wereas just a few weeks ago it was a few points for McCain. Missouri has started to tighten. The Virginia tie is slipping slightly towards Obama. McCain is seeing his lead shrink down some in Florida and North Carolina.

It doesn't matter if he pulls 95% of the vote throughout most of the south. If Obama keeps the states he's now carving out a lead in its in the bag.