All U.S. adults could be overweight in 40 years

[Chris]

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSCOL66909620080806

All U.S. adults could be overweight in 40 years

NEW YORK (Reuters Health) - If the trends of the past three decades continue, it's possible that every American adult could be overweight 40 years from now, a government-funded study projects.

The figure might sound alarming, or impossible, but researchers say that even if the actual rate never reaches the 100-percent mark, any upward movement is worrying; two-thirds of the population is already overweight.

"Genetically and physiologically, it should be impossible" for all U.S. adults to become overweight, said Dr. Lan Liang of the federal government's Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, one of the researchers on the study.

However, she told Reuters Health, the data suggest that if the trends of the past 30 years persist, "that is the direction we're going."

Already, she and her colleagues point out, some groups of U.S. adults have extremely high rates of overweight and obesity; among African- American women, for instance, 78 percent are currently overweight or obese.

The new projections, published in the journal Obesity, are based on government survey data collected between the 1970s and 2004.

If the trends of those years continue, the researchers estimate that 86 percent of American adults will be overweight by 2030, with an obesity rate of 51 percent. By 2048, all U.S. adults could be at least mildly overweight.

Weight problems will be most acute among African-Americans and Mexican- Americans, the study projects. All black women could be overweight by 2034, according to the researchers, as could more than 90 percent of Mexican-American men.

All of this rests on the "big assumption" that the trends of recent decades will march on unabated, Liang acknowledged.

"This is really intended as a wake-up call to show what could happen if nothing changes," she said.

Waistlines aren't the only thing poised to balloon in the future, according to Liang and her colleagues. They estimate that the healthcare costs directly related to excess pounds will double each decade, reaching $957 billion in 2030 -- accounting for one of every six healthcare dollars spent in the

U.S.

Those financial projections are based on Census data and published estimates of the current healthcare costs attributed to excess weight -- and they are probably a "huge underestimate" of what the actual costs will be, Liang said.

The findings highlight a need for widespread efforts to improve Americans' lifestyles and keep their weight in check, according to the researchers. Simply telling people to eat less and exercise more is not enough, Liang noted.

Broader social changes are needed as well, she said -- such as making communities more pedestrian-friendly so that people can walk regularly, or getting the food industry to offer healthier, calorie-conscious choices.

"It really needs to be more than an individual effort," Liang said. "It needs to be a societal effort."

[crowebomber]

Bob is 40 years ahead of his time.

Someone had to say it.

[2KBack]

using the tragically flawed body mass index?

[Killericon]

If the trends of the past three decades continue, it's possible that every American adult could be overweight 40 years from now
And if the trends continue, then in 80 years, there will be twice as many overweight American Adults in America as there are Adults!

A little common sense, please. There are types of people who will never be overweight.

[Meck77]

Wait a second. Baja already told us all that a killer virus will wipe out most of the world's population soon. I'm confused. Now we're all going to be fat?

*ducks* A killer bee just zoomed by my laptop!

[tsiguy96]

using the tragically flawed body mass index?

i hate all studies that tell everyone what weight they should be to be healthy. if im 240lbs but 10% body fat, im perfectly healthy. if im 200lbs and 30% body fat, not so much. **** is ridiculous, i dont even pay attention to this stuff. but then im training to go into strength and conditioning coach ala rich tuten so none of this average american stuff applies to me.

[2KBack]

hmmm, I plan on being alive in 40 years, and don't plan on becoming a fatty. How alone I will feel.

[Beantown Bronco]

using the tragically flawed body mass index?

It's obviously a flawed measurement tool.....but I don't think there are that many african american female bodybuilders and mexican male bodybuilders out there throwing off the numbers. Facts are facts. This country is getting fat, fat, fat.

Imagine how much money this country would have to improve itself if we just eradicated obesity.

[Dudeskey]

We'll look like those people on Wall-e... ohmygod ohmygod ohmygod, we are soooooooo ****ed...™�
­

[2KBack]

It's obviously a flawed measurement tool.....but I don't think there are that many african american female bodybuilders and mexican male bodybuilders out there throwing off the numbers. Facts are facts. This country is getting fat, fat, fat.

Imagine how much money this country would have to improve itself if we just eradicated obesity.

you don't need anyone to skew the numberts if they start that way. BMI is pretty much the standard used for these "studies." yet it is hardly accurate on anyone, much less the extreme cases. At 5' 9" 185lbs I am considered solidly overweight, yet I have 8% body fat and train 4-5 times a week. On the other hand my friend is the same height, weighs 155lbs, but gets winded going up a flight of stairs. We aren't aberrations, we are rather typical. Weight coupled with height is worthless as a measurement of health.

[elsid13]

The researchers at "Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality" should be ashamed at themselves. They are using liner project and making assumption we know are not to. I bet this didn't got through peer review. Yes, American is becoming to fat, way to fat in many segments of the population. but make the assumption that we all become fat is out of bounds.

[elsid13]

Wait a second. Baja already told us all that a killer virus will wipe out most of the world's population soon. I'm confused. Now we're all going to be fat?

*ducks* A killer bee just zoomed by my laptop!

Just watch out for theDave, he going to mutate into flesh eating zombie that mates with demon dogs. Poor Bea Arthur is going lose her last lover and be stuck with Spider.

[Rulon Velvet Jones]

Aren't George Clooney and Brad Pitt considered obsese, according to the BMI?

[gyldenlove]

America isn't getting fat, America has been fat for a long time. The last time I stopped over in Newark airport I was afraid to get eaten by some of the fatties I saw, and I am 6'6, 240 lbs, but I felt skinny.

[Beantown Bronco]

you don't need anyone to skew the numberts if they start that way. BMI is pretty much the standard used for these "studies." yet it is hardly accurate on anyone, much less the extreme cases. At 5' 9" 185lbs I am considered solidly overweight, yet I have 8% body fat and train 4-5 times a week. On the other hand my friend is the same height, weighs 155lbs, but gets winded going up a flight of stairs. We aren't aberrations, we are rather typical. Weight coupled with height is worthless as a measurement of health.

Trust me, I know it's a flawed measurement tool....which is why my original post started off with "It's obviously a flawed measurement tool..." HOWEVER, anyone who denies that this country is going down the crapper health-wise is kidding themselves. People are getting more and more heavy and out of shape.

Regardless of how flawed one may think the article is, however, one needs to take note of the following, which cannot be taken lightly:

Waistlines aren't the only thing poised to balloon in the future, according to Liang and her colleagues. They estimate that the healthcare costs directly related to excess pounds will double each decade, reaching $957 billion in 2030 -- accounting for one of every six healthcare dollars spent in the U.S.

Those financial projections are based on Census data and published estimates of the current healthcare costs attributed to excess weight -- and they are probably a "huge underestimate" of what the actual costs will be, Liang said.

Weight coupled with height is worthless as a measurement of health.

Not exactly. The BMI is pretty accurate when determining who is morbidly obese. I don't see too many folks under 6 feet tall and weighing in at over 300 pounds that could ever kid themselves into saying they are living a healthy lifestyle.

[crowebomber]

So, we'll start the Orangemane fitness program to be the lone surviving thin people in 40 years.
Fifteen pushups everytime Cutler makes a completion.
Fifty sit ups for each sack.
Fifty jumpingjacks for each turnover that we get.

[2KBack]

Aren't George Clooney and Brad Pitt considered obsese, according to the BMI?

Lance Armstrong was classified as overweight by the BMI when he won the Tour De France

[loborugger]

And if the trends continue, then in 80 years, there will be twice as many overweight American Adults in America as there are Adults!

A little common sense, please. There are types of people who will never be overweight.

No ****ing doubt.

Fortunately, our tax dollars funded this fine piece of science. This is something a 6th grader could have come up with. And, somehow this is news, too. What the headline should have been, IMHO, is "a scientist shows the ability to use a calculator and zero critical thinking."

Following this logic, the same following statement would be true:

"Do to the success of the Patriots over the last decade, there are now more Pats fans than there used to be. Using merchandise sales and polling, we have determined that the number of Pats fans has increased by X amount each year. Therefore, by year Y, all the nation will be Patriots fans."

Good grief, Charlie Brown.

[Beantown Bronco]

Aren't George Clooney and Brad Pitt considered obsese, according to the BMI?

Myth.

Pitt was average.
Clooney was overweight (which is a big difference from obese)

[2KBack]

Trust me, I know it's a flawed measurement tool....which is why my original post started off with "It's obviously a flawed measurement tool..." HOWEVER, anyone who denies that this country is going down the crapper health-wise is kidding themselves. People are getting more and more heavy and out of shape.

Regardless of how flawed one may think the article is, however, one needs to take note of the following, which cannot be taken lightly:

Waistlines aren't the only thing poised to balloon in the future, according to Liang and her colleagues. They estimate that the healthcare costs directly related to excess pounds will double each decade, reaching $957 billion in 2030 -- accounting for one of every six healthcare dollars spent in the U.S.

Those financial projections are based on Census data and published estimates of the current healthcare costs attributed to excess weight -- and they are probably a "huge underestimate" of what the actual costs will be, Liang said.



Not exactly. The BMI is pretty accurate when determining who is morbidly obese. I don't see too many folks under 6 feet tall and weighing in at over 300 pounds that could ever kid themselves into saying they are living a healthy lifestyle.

My beef specifically is with the numbers they try to throw around in regards to who is overweight and who isn't. I atke it a little personally since I know I count as one of those 2 thirds of the population that are "overweight." It is quite possible that people are getting fatter, but not at the rate they claim if people like me are part of their argument for a swelling society.

The money might be a slightly better measurement, but are they taking variables into account like increasing populations or healthcare costs? Even then if there are some more fatties around and visit the doctor all the time, it's a free county...unless we end up with socialized medicine, then I'm taking their candy away.

[2KBack]

in addition: Kids being fat is messed up, Adults can make that choice with their health, but children are a whole different story

[skpac1001]

And suddenly I am looking a little better to the ladies....yes!!

[Beantown Bronco]

Even then if there are some more fatties around and visit the doctor all the time, it's a free county...unless we end up with socialized medicine, then I'm taking their candy away.

But you and I are paying for the "fatties" in rising health care costs every year. It's like smoking. Some argue that what they are doing to their bodies is nobody else's business. But it becomes our business when we have to pay higher premiums every month because someone else is using significantly more than their share of the insurance.

[Beantown Bronco]

It is quite possible that people are getting fatter, but not at the rate they claim if people like me are part of their argument for a swelling society.

The BMI hasn't changed their formula in 30 years, so anyone who is overweight according to their system today was overweight 30 years ago. So their rate of increase is accurate, even if we don't agree with their definition of what is overweight.

[Popps]

I was putting the over/under at 5 posts before Bob came up.

It took one.

[Beantown Bronco]

Frankly, I'm shocked he wasn't referenced in the original reuters article.

[skpac1001]

But you and I are paying for the "fatties" in rising health care costs every year. It's like smoking. Some argue that what they are doing to their bodies is nobody else's business. But it becomes our business when we have to pay higher premiums every month because someone else is using significantly more than their share of the insurance.


Its like alot of things. Motorcycles, drinking, tanning, sex....
I would hate to be the one to have to draw the line between personal lifestyle liberty and cost effectiveness of health care. Simply allowing heath care to charge based on health factors would be a good compromise, of course it would not be looked on very highly by those who are heath risks genetically or randomly.

[2KBack]

The BMI hasn't changed their formula in 30 years, so anyone who is overweight according to their system today was overweight 30 years ago. So their rate of increase is accurate, even if we don't agree with their definition of what is overweight.

I'll accept that the rate of increase (via BMI) can be accurate, but I do not agree that it means that people are getting fatter at that same rate. Hell there's probably been a significant increase in lean muscle mass of the last 30 years as well, but the BMI doesn't account for that.


and yes, the whole insurance system does suck. I don't blame people in poor health though, even it is within their control.

[Beantown Bronco]

Think about how fat this country would be if we didn't have all these new ways of losing weight through surgery, etc. We're getting heavier and heavier even though technology and medicine has come up with more ways for us to lose weight. It's embarrassing.

[Beantown Bronco]

Its like alot of things. Motorcycles, drinking, tanning, sex....
I would hate to be the one to have to draw the line between personal lifestyle liberty and cost effectiveness of health care. Simply allowing heath care to charge based on health factors would be a good compromise, of course it would not be looked on very highly by those who are heath risks genetically or randomly.

It works for life insurance; why not health insurance? If you have certain risk factors, you pay more. If not, you pay less. It's obviously more complicated than that, but my coworkers and I shouldn't be penalized because 75% of Alabama and Mississippi are obese.

[2KBack]

Think about how fat this country would be if we didn't have all these new ways of losing weight through surgery, etc. We're getting heavier and heavier even though technology and medicine has come up with more ways for us to lose weight. It's embarrassing.

I'm not embarrassed by it, a well fed person is a sign of success. At least it used to be. Also I'm not fat, and don't care to control others that my not mind being as such.

We disagree on it being a problem, but what solution would you suggest?

[2KBack]

It works for life insurance; why not health insurance? If you have certain risk factors, you pay more. If not, you pay less. It's obviously more complicated than that, but my coworkers and I shouldn't be penalized because 75% of Alabama and Mississippi are obese.

I would be 100% behind something like that

[Bronx33]

bob throws this theory into a tailspin.

[Fedaykin]

The BMI is a bull**** worthless statistic. It doesn't discriminate between lean body mass and fat. It would classify jay Cutler as obese, which is absurd.

[Ray Finkle]

Meh,
Eat well, got off the coach and exercise and you won't be a fat ass...

[elsid13]

Meh,
Eat well, got off the coach and exercise and you won't be a fat ass...

**** that, I am ditching the workouts and outside activities to eat fried cheese and processed meat like products.

[Bronx33]

**** that, I am ditching the workouts and outside activities to eat fried cheese and processed meat like products.


Mmmmmmmmmmmmm fried cheese..

[mr007]

This is the dumbest article ever. There are certain areas of the US that this definitely applies to... if anything people are becoming more health conscious and aware in general though media typically projects diets and eating habits that contradict what truly healthy habits are.

Unless acted upon force there is and always will be a % of the population that is anal about the foods they eat and their health and will also educate and bring others into that circle.

[TallyBronco]

And if the trends continue, then in 80 years, there will be twice as many overweight American Adults in America as there are Adults!

A little common sense, please. There are types of people who will never be overweight.

LOL

Some of us are smart enough to count as two people, so maybe there's hope in these new statistical procedures.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

Bob is 40 years ahead of his time.

Someone had to say it.

I exercise and watch what I eat. Don't lump me in with America's fatties.

"Bob" is dead.

[Ray Finkle]

**** that, I am ditching the workouts and outside activities to eat fried cheese and processed meat like products.

spoken like a true NOVA resident....:~ohyah!:

[Taco John]

using the tragically flawed body mass index?

That's what I was thinking. Supposedly, I'm supposed to weigh like 160. That's nuts. I'd be a pencil neck at that weight.

[Taco John]

I exercise and watch what I eat. Don't lump me in with America's fatties.

"Bob" is dead.

Let's see that lean physique...

[Bronx33]

Let's see that lean physique...



You can take a gander at http://www.winchells.com/ it's under the ( our version of jared ) link.

[jutang]

Saying the BMI as a tragically flawed or worthless statistic is about as absurd as saying BMI is the end all for categorizing obesity. BMI is only one measurement just like any other vital measurement (Heart Rate, blood pressure) which is a piece of information when together as a whole can give a pretty good picture of someones health.

When taking large population studies, BMI is a pretty good indicator.

Until recently children's growth curves where updated every 15 years or so. Because kids have gotten so fat so quickly, the latest growth curves for children have updated heights but not updated weights. This in all likelyhood has slightly skewed the BMI upwards for children, but really highlights how much of a problem this has become.

It is amazing how many parents will reason that their fat child isn't that bad because another child is fatter.

[Atwater His Ass]

America is fat. I agree BMI is a joke. But you don't need it. Just start looking around during your daily life. I'll guareentee that you'll see more people that obviously don't take any sort of care of themselves then you will people that do.

This is especially eye opening when you travel aboard or visit a place with a high international tourist population (disneyworld for example). Americans for the most part are way out of shape (and don't care) while the majority of the foreigners are not.

My personal opinon is that Americans aren't educated about foods, caliories, what to eat, why certain things are bad for you etc. They have no idea how absolutely terrible soda is for you for example. We eat out too much. People sometimes might have a passing thought that fast food is bad for you, but they don't really understand why. They can't apply any sort of food knowledge to make smart food choices because they are food illiterate.

Being healthy is a lifestyle and a commitment. Most people are too weak to bother to educate themselves or change their lifestyle (even in small ways) to accomodate healthy living. It takes effort and people in America are lazy.

[Jason in LA]

I'm a slim guy with an athletic build. Don't have huge muscles, but I'm not rail thin. Anyways, I did one of the BMI calculators, at 6' 185 lbs I'm overweight with a BMI of 25.1. I don't have much body fat (not sure what the % is, but I'm sure it is under 10%), my blood pressure and cholesterol levels are normal. I'm a very healthy and in shape guy.

If I'm considered overweight, then damn near the entire country is overweight. The BMI is total BS. This country does have a serious weight issue, but it is nowhere near as bad as the BMI would make it out to be.

A body fat test would be a much better indicator, but not that many people ever take the test. Anyone can take the BMI test. That's probably why it is being used.

[Jason in LA]

I exercise and watch what I eat. Don't lump me in with America's fatties.

"Bob" is dead.

Stop fooling yourself.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y19/Jlewis3233/loser.jpg

[Jason in LA]

When taking large population studies, BMI is a pretty good indicator.




I'd say it can work for certain people, but not a large population. There are too many different type of body types. This lumps everybody in together. It just doesn't work.

[Bronco_Beerslug]

The BMI is a bull**** worthless statistic. It doesn't discriminate between lean body mass and fat. It would classify jay Cutler as obese, which is absurd.I sure don't need any type of index to see how "fat" this country is. Just take a look around you. Of course, Colorado isn't the best indicator of the overweight in this country since the Front Range has been deemed the healthiest region of the U.S. :wiggle:

[PaintballCLE]

welcome aboard........we will keep the door open for the rest of you till 2048!

[Bob's your Information Minister]

Stop fooling yourself.

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y19/Jlewis3233/loser.jpg

That picture is three years old, dip****. I've lost 60 lbs.

[broncosteven]

That picture is three years old, dip****. I've lost 60 lbs.

But you still look gay.

[Jason in LA]

That picture is three years old, dip****. I've lost 60 lbs.

That means you're still fat.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

Thanks, asshat. I'm not into anorexia or coke so these things take time.

[Ray Finkle]

That picture is three years old, dip****. I've lost 60 lbs.

this post is worthless without a pic...

[TomServo]

i dont need no stinkin' study to tell me america is getting fat. adults i dont care about but the number of fat kids i see is alarming. yes some kids are just that way no matter what but damn, there cant be that many "big boned" kids in this country.
last year when i went to my girls basketball games... some people brought more snacks to the game for themseslves and their kids for a 45 minute event than my parents took for me and my siblings for a drive in double feature.