Drafting in the Shanahan Years: Offensive Line

[BowlenBall]

Since it seems somewhat likely that we'll be drafting offensive linemen early in the draft this year, I thought it would be interesting to evaluate Shanahan's draft track record as far as offensive linemen are concerned.

(these picks were pulled from www.drafthistory.com (http://www.drafthistory.com) -- some of the positions for the players seem wrong to me, but may just be where they played in college)

1995, 4th round - Jamie Brown, Tackle (whiff)
1995, 6th round - Fritz Fequere, Guard (whiff)
1996, 7th round - Lesle Ratlffe, Tackle (whiff)
1996, 7th round - Chris Banks, Guard (whiff)
1997, 3rd round - Dan Neil, Guard (good pick)
1998, 7th round - Trey Teague, Center (good pick for the 7th round)
1999, 2nd round - Lennie Freidman, Center (good player, but poor results for high draft position)
2000, 4th round - Cooper Carlisle, Tackle (good pick for where he was taken)
2001, 4th round - Ben Hamilton, Center (another good 4th rounder)
2003, 1st round - George Foster, Tackle (Major League strike-out)
2003, 5th round - Ben Claxton, Center (whiff)
2004, 6th round - Josh Sewell, Center (whiff - I don't even remember this stiff)
2005, 6th round - Chris Meyer, Guard (good pick)
2006, 5th round - Chris Kuper, Tackle (Still early, but looks excellent)
2006, 6th round - Greg Eslinger, Center (whiff - much to my dismay)
2007, 3rd round - Ryan Harris, Tackle (too early to tell)

Patterns?

1. The most obvious pattern is that Shanny doesn't like taking linemen early -- here's the breakdown by round:

1st round - 1 pick
2nd round - 1 pick
3rd round - 2 picks
4th round - 3 picks
5th round - 2 picks
6th round - 4 picks
7th round - 3 picks

Considering that the 1st rounder was a major bust and the 2nd rounder under-achieved, it's safe to say that, as a rule, Shanahan was, is, and will be averse to taking O-lineman early in the draft in general.

2. Overall, Shanny has just plain missed on at least 8 of the players, gotten some value out of another 6-7, and has not hit a home run on any of them -- I don't believe any of these players have made a single pro bowl (unless Dan Neil made it once, not sure there....)

3. Shanahan's best linemen were either inherited (Tom Nalen) or picked up by other means than the draft (Zimmerman, Schlereth, Tony Jones, etc.) I suspect he still feels that trading or picking up proven free agents is the best way to improve the line.

Overall grade for drafting offensive linemen: D+
Prospects for taking a lineman early this year: poor to fair
Prospects for taking a lineman late this year: excellent

[SureShot]

Thanks.

[mattob14]

Since it seems somewhat likely that we'll be drafting offensive linemen early in the draft this year, I thought it would be interesting to evaluate Shanahan's draft track record as far as offensive linemen are concerned.

(these picks were pulled from www.drafthistory.com (http://www.drafthistory.com) -- some of the positions for the players seem wrong to me, but may just be where they played in college)

1995, 4th round - Jamie Brown, Tackle (whiff)
1995, 6th round - Fritz Fequere, Guard (whiff)
1996, 7th round - Lesle Ratlffe, Tackle (whiff)
1996, 7th round - Chris Banks, Guard (whiff)
1997, 3rd round - Dan Neil, Guard (good pick)
1998, 7th round - Trey Teague, Center (good pick for the 7th round)
1999, 2nd round - Lennie Freidman, Center (good player, but poor results for high draft position)
2000, 4th round - Cooper Carlisle, Tackle (good pick for where he was taken)
2001, 4th round - Ben Hamilton, Center (another good 4th rounder)
2003, 1st round - George Foster, Tackle (Major League strike-out)
2003, 5th round - Ben Claxton, Center (whiff)
2004, 6th round - Josh Sewell, Center (whiff - I don't even remember this stiff)
2005, 6th round - Chris Meyer, Guard (good pick)
2006, 5th round - Chris Kuper, Tackle (Still early, but looks excellent)
2006, 6th round - Greg Eslinger, Center (whiff - much to my dismay)
2007, 3rd round - Ryan Harris, Tackle (too early to tell)

Patterns?

1. The most obvious pattern is that Shanny doesn't like taking linemen early -- here's the breakdown by round:

1st round - 1 pick
2nd round - 1 pick
3rd round - 2 picks
4th round - 3 picks
5th round - 2 picks
6th round - 4 picks
7th round - 3 picks

Considering that the 1st rounder was a major bust and the 2nd rounder under-achieved, it's safe to say that, as a rule, Shanahan was, is, and will be averse to taking O-lineman early in the draft in general.

2. Overall, Shanny has just plain missed on at least 8 of the players, gotten some value out of another 6-7, and has not hit a home run on any of them -- I don't believe any of these players have made a single pro bowl (unless Dan Neil made it once, not sure there....)

3. Shanahan's best linemen were either inherited (Tom Nalen) or picked up by other means than the draft (Zimmerman, Schlereth, Tony Jones, etc.) I suspect he still feels that trading or picking up proven free agents is the best way to improve the line.

Overall grade for drafting offensive linemen: D+
Prospects for taking a lineman early this year: poor to fair
Prospects for taking a lineman late this year: excellent

If anything, I think this just proves the team's preference to add veteran offensive lineman. Jamie Brown was traded for a 2nd round pick a couple of years later, I don't consider that a whiff. Also, 6 of the other players you consider "whiffs" were taken in round 5 or later. You can't really count on those guys to be big contributors and at least we grabbed players like Teague, Myers, and Kuper in the later rounds. The mid-rounders like Neil, Carlisle, and Hamilton have worked out. The only real busts I see are Foster and maybe Friedman. Does anyone remember what happened to Lennie? I though he was pretty highly regarded for awhile, but then was injured. I'm not positive on that, though.

[nickademus]

the only thing that is different about this year is the shear ammount of good players coming out. this is the first time I can remember a draft so deep in OT's not that I have been following the draft forever first one I can remember watching was the tommy maddux draft but this year just seems different.

[Kaylore]

I think you're being a little hard on Shanahan. Most of those whiffs are sixth and seventh rounders and let's be honest here. Virtually all of the guys past round four will be out football in three years. It's not a whiff so much as a "didn't work out." Foster was a whiff for where he was taken. However he did start most of his time with us, so it's not like he was totally useless...well the last season he was.

He also did some great things with undrafted guys. Turning a too-slow tight end into a solid left tackle in Matt Lepsis and getting serviceable work out of Erik Pears. Those more than make up for those seventh rounders not working out.

My point is that I don't think he's done any worse than all the other teams out there on these offensive linemen. You want to talk about receivers, that's a different story, but he's been ok on the line.

[SpringStein]

Prospects for taking a lineman early this year: poor to fair


If I'm not mistaken, this same argument could have been made for taking DE last year. ;)

[DBBBSBS]

can we make a safe assumption that one of our 4th round and 7th round picks are offensive line men

[cmhargrove]

If I'm not mistaken, this same argument could have been made for taking DE last year. ;)

No, he was saying we should take another first round QB. C'mon get it straight!

Good analysis Expat, but I don't think that means we stop trying, especially if the value is there. However, because of the way the Broncos work, I think our LT is already on the team. RT is a place where we could probably plug in a rookie, lots of talented options there.

I won't be surprised if we "find our guy" later in the draft. As you have pointed out, that seems to be the historical case.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

The only thing predictable about the Broncos is that history is meaningless.

[BowlenBall]

I guess my larger point is not whether players "worked out" or not... it's Mike Shanahan's theory of drafting for the offensive line. He's much more inclined to wait until later in the draft OR go the free agent route to replenish the line.

However, it seems to be a flawed strategy -- 14 years of drafting, 16 offensive linemen, and not one pro bowl among them (as far as I can tell). Personally, I'd like to see them take offensive linemen early and often this year, and try to control the line of scrimmage more than they have in the past few years.

[SpringStein]

Totally agree, Expat. If you look at all pro LT's, it is one of the highest percentage of first round picks of any position.

[CBF1]

I think you're being a little hard on Shanahan. Most of those whiffs are sixth and seventh rounders and let's be honest here. Virtually all of the guys past round four will be out football in three years. It's not a whiff so much as a "didn't work out." Foster was a whiff for where he was taken. However he did start most of his time with us, so it's not like he was totally useless...well the last season he was.

He also did some great things with undrafted guys. Turning a too-slow tight end into a solid left tackle in Matt Lepsis and getting serviceable work out of Erik Pears. Those more than make up for those seventh rounders not working out.

My point is that I don't think he's done any worse than all the other teams out there on these offensive linemen. You want to talk about receivers, that's a different story, but he's been ok on the line.

You must be talking about a different George Foster..... The one I remember was a total waste of human flesh and was not worth a bag of week old bagel chips. Hilarious!

[summerdenver]

I guess my larger point is not whether players "worked out" or not... it's Mike Shanahan's theory of drafting for the offensive line. He's much more inclined to wait until later in the draft OR go the free agent route to replenish the line.

However, it seems to be a flawed strategy -- 14 years of drafting, 16 offensive linemen, and not one pro bowl among them (as far as I can tell). Personally, I'd like to see them take offensive linemen early and often this year, and try to control the line of scrimmage more than they have in the past few years.

To be fair to shanny this strategy worked well till last year. We had one of the best if not dominating OLs during shanahan's tenure. It's only after injuries to Nalen and Lepsis from which i don't think he fully recovered that the productivity went down. If we can get an elite tackle in the draft or Harris/Kuiper pan out we will be fine.

[Kaylore]

You must be talking about a different George Foster..... The one I remember was a total waste of human flesh and was not worth a bag of week old bagel chips. Hilarious!

No one was a bigger anti-Foster advocate than me. I was against him when many on this board didn't get where I was coming from and felt I was being too critical on him. That said, he didn't always horribly suck. His first few years were acceptable. Some believe after he injured that lineman in the Bengals game in '04 that his confidence was shot and he stopped trying. I think he just never loved football and the grind finally broke him down to where he stopped caring. Regardless, he did indeed suck something terrible, but it was not always so.

[dsmoot]

Since it seems somewhat likely that we'll be drafting offensive linemen early in the draft this year, I thought it would be interesting to evaluate Shanahan's draft track record as far as offensive linemen are concerned.

(these picks were pulled from www.drafthistory.com (http://www.drafthistory.com) -- some of the positions for the players seem wrong to me, but may just be where they played in college)

1995, 4th round - Jamie Brown, Tackle (whiff)
1995, 6th round - Fritz Fequere, Guard (whiff)
1996, 7th round - Lesle Ratlffe, Tackle (whiff)
1996, 7th round - Chris Banks, Guard (whiff)
1997, 3rd round - Dan Neil, Guard (good pick)
1998, 7th round - Trey Teague, Center (good pick for the 7th round)
1999, 2nd round - Lennie Freidman, Center (good player, but poor results for high draft position)
2000, 4th round - Cooper Carlisle, Tackle (good pick for where he was taken)
2001, 4th round - Ben Hamilton, Center (another good 4th rounder)
2003, 1st round - George Foster, Tackle (Major League strike-out)
2003, 5th round - Ben Claxton, Center (whiff)
2004, 6th round - Josh Sewell, Center (whiff - I don't even remember this stiff)
2005, 6th round - Chris Meyer, Guard (good pick)
2006, 5th round - Chris Kuper, Tackle (Still early, but looks excellent)
2006, 6th round - Greg Eslinger, Center (whiff - much to my dismay)
2007, 3rd round - Ryan Harris, Tackle (too early to tell)

Patterns?

1. The most obvious pattern is that Shanny doesn't like taking linemen early -- here's the breakdown by round:

1st round - 1 pick
2nd round - 1 pick
3rd round - 2 picks
4th round - 3 picks
5th round - 2 picks
6th round - 4 picks
7th round - 3 picks

Considering that the 1st rounder was a major bust and the 2nd rounder under-achieved, it's safe to say that, as a rule, Shanahan was, is, and will be averse to taking O-lineman early in the draft in general.

2. Overall, Shanny has just plain missed on at least 8 of the players, gotten some value out of another 6-7, and has not hit a home run on any of them -- I don't believe any of these players have made a single pro bowl (unless Dan Neil made it once, not sure there....)

3. Shanahan's best linemen were either inherited (Tom Nalen) or picked up by other means than the draft (Zimmerman, Schlereth, Tony Jones, etc.) I suspect he still feels that trading or picking up proven free agents is the best way to improve the line.

Overall grade for drafting offensive linemen: D+
Prospects for taking a lineman early this year: poor to fair
Prospects for taking a lineman late this year: excellent

Just because he has done poorly in the early rounds, 2 picks out of 16, is not reason enough to avoid picking OL early going forward. In looking at your great information, Denver isn't stellar in the later rounds either. As a matter of fact, he has not picked anyone that is better than average. The best player, Dan Neil, did he even sniff a Pro Bowl. What the Broncos need is someone who can see the talent like we can running backs. The George Foster mistake was a result of a reach by selecting a first round pick out of need rather than taking the best player available. A first round pick should dominate at his position at the collegiate level and not for just one year. Did George Foster dominate at Georgia or wherever he played. I can't believe he did by watching him.

[chrisp]

I think its true that we may think we have a better than average chance of landing a player in the later rounds, becuase we tend to go for smaller linemen, however I'm not sure we're sticking quite so religiously to that principle these days.

During the Plummer years there was no point in trying to get the big pass-protecting linemen that some teams have becuase Plummer was better on the move anyway. Now we actually have a guy who can do some damage from the pocket as well. I don't think we're going to completely throw out the model of the faster, more athletic lineman, however we do seem to be looking to get a little bit bigger and heavier overall.

[orinjkrush]

i think we should also share the blame with our scouting department. Shanny, although he is a mastermind of immense proportions despite his diminuative stature, can't know everything about everybody. Somebody is glowingly referring these pugs to him.