View Full Version : Production Over Upside Draft
rugbythug
02-26-2008, 10:53 AM
1st Round-Dan Conner
2nd Round-Trevor Laws
4thA-Jamie Silva
4thB-Adarius Bowman
LonghornBronco
02-26-2008, 11:04 AM
NFL.com has some vid clips of Dan Conner in senior bowl practices and the guy looks like exactly what we need in the middle, he attacks the blocker and blows up the run at the line of scrimmage. I really like this kid, but how would we pull it off?
Borks147
02-26-2008, 11:07 AM
NFL.com has some vid clips of Dan Conner in senior bowl practices and the guy looks like exactly what we need in the middle, he attacks the blocker and blows up the run at the line of scrimmage. I really like this kid, but how would we pull it off?
you mean trading back so as to not reach for him at 12?
rugbythug
02-26-2008, 11:10 AM
I know 12 is a reach. But all the fake trades in Mocks get annoying, all it does is make the mocker happy because he gets to pick like 8 guys in the first 3 rounds.
Paladin
02-26-2008, 02:01 PM
I wonder. Does the whole thing about a "value" pick screw up the whole point of getting players? I guess I wonder what the point of having a draft is: get players who might well fit your system. or impress people with the "value" of your pick? Sorting out players has no value until they play.
Just what the h3ll is a "value" pick? No one knows how a guy will do until he's been on the team for a year or so.
My point is that if a guy fits what you want in a player, take him, annoint himeor whatever you do, and screw what others may think about it.
rugbythug
02-26-2008, 02:37 PM
Your post draft grade would be terrible
I wonder. Does the whole thing about a "value" pick screw up the whole point of getting players? I guess I wonder what the point of having a draft is: get players who might well fit your system. or impress people with the "value" of your pick? Sorting out players has no value until they play.
Just what the h3ll is a "value" pick? No one knows how a guy will do until he's been on the team for a year or so.
My point is that if a guy fits what you want in a player, take him, annoint himeor whatever you do, and screw what others may think about it.
I'm a fan of this train of thought as well. For any given draft pick, if you have a player who will make a difference for your football team, and he wont be around at your team's next pick...he is a good choice. Too often people fall into the trap of pegging players into slots they HAVE to be drafted in...its crazy.
Your post draft grade would be terrible
Your team might actually improve though. Fancy that... Who cares what outside critics say if you're making your football team better.
rugbythug
02-26-2008, 03:29 PM
Your team might actually improve though. Fancy that... Who cares what outside critics say if you're making your football team better.
http://www.orangemane.com/BB/images/misc/vbulletin3_logo_white.gif
That One Guy
02-26-2008, 04:25 PM
After just reading through some of the Williamson thread and then remembering what I've heard about Bowman lately... no thanks. I remember them saying Bowman was one of the biggest losers in the Senior Bowl and while you can usually use his career production to outweigh a week or two of bad play, you can't justify taking a WR who seems to have forgotten how to catch.
cmhargrove
02-26-2008, 04:33 PM
After just reading through some of the Williamson thread and then remembering what I've heard about Bowman lately... no thanks. I remember them saying Bowman was one of the biggest losers in the Senior Bowl and while you can usually use his career production to outweigh a week or two of bad play, you can't justify taking a WR who seems to have forgotten how to catch.
As a Bowman fan, I have to remind you there were the same knocks of Dwayne Bowe last year. Look at his years of production and game film instead of 1 week of practice with new Qb's, coaches, and plays.
As a matter of fact, just watch the TD catch Bowman made during the Senior Bowl. It was an incredible effort (and then a line judge away from the play over ruled it). In the NFL it would have then been reviewed and stuck as a TD.
I'm not going to whine, because I believe we could do well with many of these receivers, however, Bowman could be a Brandon Marshall type of player for a team with a gifted QB. If he is available in the fourth, he is a steal.
goldengopher1976
02-26-2008, 04:42 PM
Your team might actually improve though. Fancy that... Who cares what outside critics say if you're making your football team better.
I remember when the Pats drafted Logan Mankins a few years back. Not a single draft guru I know of had even mentioned him as a possibility, and if I remember correctly, the "experts" were a bit befuddled at the pick. And now...well...maybe Connor is the perfect choice... (though, like everyone here, I think, the idea that we might be able to trade down 3 spots, gain a 3rd, and get Connor is intriguing--but a gamble for sure).
chickennob2
02-26-2008, 04:47 PM
The idea behind a value pick is that you trade back, grab the guy you want, and get another pick to grab another guy you need.
Also, if you take your guy with a later pick, you pay him less. Helps with the cap.
The idea behind a value pick is that you trade back, grab the guy you want, and get another pick to grab another guy you need.
Also, if you take your guy with a later pick, you pay him less. Helps with the cap.
Don't confuse ''value picks" with trading back...they are completely different. Value picks are, at any given draft slot, taking a player the "experts" thought should have already been taken. Trading back allows you to better position yourself for your targeted players, should they be taken when you expect them to, and can lead to "value picks" but they are not interchangeable. Taking a guy later than he was expected to go doesn't get you the extra pick, trading back does.
I'm not against taking him but he would be way to high at 12.
I'm all for drafting proven guys over workout warriors. He's one of those guys.
A nice mock would be Trade back in round 1 for a 3rd, pick up Connor, select Sam Baker in round 2, Laws in round 3, Tashard Choice, and Dajuan Morgan in round 4.
Billy Clyde Puckett
02-26-2008, 08:34 PM
Again - who are the experts??? A bunch of 14 year olds who build web sites and mimic one another without ever seeing the players in a game??
broncogary
02-26-2008, 08:38 PM
Again - who are the experts??? A bunch of 14 year olds who build web sites and mimic one another without ever seeing the players in a game??
Whatcha talkin bout Majikman that way. LOL
mattob14
02-26-2008, 08:47 PM
Don't confuse ''value picks" with trading back...they are completely different. Value picks are, at any given draft slot, taking a player the "experts" thought should have already been taken. Trading back allows you to better position yourself for your targeted players, should they be taken when you expect them to, and can lead to "value picks" but they are not interchangeable. Taking a guy later than he was expected to go doesn't get you the extra pick, trading back does.
I think what he's referring to is maximizing value with every selection. The philosophy of draft who you like when you're on the clock, regardless of where they're slotted, doesn't do this. If the Broncos like player A when pick #12 comes around but player A is slotted to be a late-1st, early-2nd, why take him at #12? Trade back, add a pick or two and move into the early-20's where he should still be available. This maximizes the value of every selection, assuming you can find a reasonable trading partner.
I think what he's referring to is maximizing value with every selection. The philosophy of draft who you like when you're on the clock, regardless of where they're slotted, doesn't do this. If the Broncos like player A when pick #12 comes around but player A is slotted to be a late-1st, early-2nd, why take him at #12? Trade back, add a pick or two and move into the early-20's where he should still be available. This maximizes the value of every selection, assuming you can find a reasonable trading partner.
I completely understand the strategy of trading back, and think it is a great idea for us. I just think it's crazy when people say how terrible it would be to take Connor at 12 because he isn't "worth" it. If he fills a need, and is a big-time player for us, its a good pick...trading back and still getting that impact player is a bonus and adds value.
mattob14
02-26-2008, 09:03 PM
Oh, I understand your point chaz. There's too many people that put too much faith into mock drafts and value charts. That said, if the Broncos took, say, Sam Baker at #12 because they thought he'd be an impact player, I'd be more than a little upset. Even if Baker were to turn into a perennial all-pro, it doesn't mean the Broncos maximized the value at that pick. I am fairly certain we could trade down, add another 2nd or 3rd rounder and still get our target, Baker, later in round 1. Conner's a little different though, in that I don't think we could safely trade down from #12 and be certain that he'd still be there. In that case, it's not worth passing on the guy or trying squeeze an extra pick out of the deal just to end up missing out on him.
Dedhed
02-26-2008, 09:17 PM
My no trade mock would look like this:
1.Ryan Clady
2.Trevor Laws
4.Ezra Butler
4.Jordy Nelson
TheReverend
02-26-2008, 11:36 PM
"Reach" my ass. I'm not sold he's sure to be there at 12.
Don't confuse ''value picks" with trading back...they are completely different. Value picks are, at any given draft slot, taking a player the "experts" thought should have already been taken. Trading back allows you to better position yourself for your targeted players, should they be taken when you expect them to, and can lead to "value picks" but they are not interchangeable. Taking a guy later than he was expected to go doesn't get you the extra pick, trading back does.
I think in addition to picking the best player at where youre at, it also requires you to look at the draft as a whole to maximize the bang for your buck as much as you can up and down the draft...to, say, look at Balmer who is slotted in Rd 1 and recognize that that he's not THAT much better than Moore, Bryant, or Harrison who might be there in the 3rd....in addition to the risk of Balmer being a one year wonder. Sometimes you may stay where youre at but also make a selection based on the lay of the land (so to speak) for the remainder of the draft.
Paladin
02-27-2008, 10:22 AM
Slotted to be picked in the bottom of the first does not lessen the value of a player if the Broncos need to fill a position and the guy fits what the Broncos want to do. Who does the "slotting"? Mel Kipper? Who? Consensus? What consensus? One man's "value pick" is another man's belly laugh.
Whenever hereon someone proposes a fellow to be drafted, there are a dozen guys who "don't like him" because (blah, blah, blah), or is "not sold" on the guy because of (blah, blah, blah). That's nothing but a park bench fart-a-thon.
I agree with Chaz, a trade down is not the same as spending time worrying about value. Again, if a guy is there and fits what you need, get him. When you get beyond the fifth pick or so of the draft, most players are probably at equal risk of being busts until about the middle of the third round. At that time, the odds get worse for "value" picks, IMHO. I don't have the luxury of being able to research out that assertion, so I'll leave it as an opinion. WE can all point to guys who were great players after the middle of the third round, but they were the picks that proved that the draft is largely a crap shoot except in the very early rounds, 1 & 2, and maybe early third.....