Wisconsin Primary (2/19)

[Old Dude]

Early turnout reports are "mixed" for key counties (possibly due to bad weather):

The three largest counties for Democratic primary turnout from four years ago have had mixed results from morning voting, according to local election officials.

Dane County Clerk Bob Ohlsen said that the county was at 10 percent turnout as of 11 a.m., but that weather was a factor in the relatively low turnout. Ohlsen had projected as much as a 60 percent turnout last week.

"I would have thought it would have been a little more," Ohlsen said of the morning vote, before adding that he expected things to pick up this afternoon.

"You kill yourself trying to guess, and you're never right," Ohlsen said.

Milwaukee Election Commission Executive Director Sue Edman said that turnout in the state's largest city has ranged from "steady" to "busy" at polling sites.

"We're seeing a lot of activity" on the city's east side and near university campuses. At other locations, she said voting has not contributed to any lines yet.

Waukesha Municipal Clerk Tom Neill described turnout as "average" thus far. He said his office was holding to a 40 percent turnout projection.

http://blogs.wispolitics.com/election/

Meanwhile, McCain campaigned to the last minute in Wisconsin, trying to lock up the nomination ASAP. The concern?

McCain could suffer if his supporters don't turn out in freezing temperatures because they figure the race is over but Huckabee's do because they're still hoping for a miracle, or if Republicans try to help choose their opponent next fall by voting in the Democratic primary, which they can do in Wisconsin.

http://www.miamiherald.com/political-currents/story/424909.html

[frerottenextelway]

Early reports are that Madison is heavily voting Obama, but that was to be expected there.

[Old Dude]

Madison is in Dane County, isn't it?

[frerottenextelway]

Yeah, I didn't mean it was high turnout overall there, but the turnout is suposedly heavy for Obama. It's the home to the University of Wisconsin, so it would make sense for him to do well there.

[Old Dude]

That would make sense. I think Hillary is probably strongest in Green Bay and the Milwaukee suburbs.

[Inkana7]

GoBama.

[frerottenextelway]

I hear early leaked exit polls are 58-41 obama, but I can't 100% verify that. Keep in mind Clinton has tended to do better once actually numbers come in than the exits too.

[Old Dude]

Early Exit polls from Wisconsin:


7 in 10 democratic voters said U.S. trade with other countries takes more jobs from Wisconsin. Less than 1 in 5 said it creates more jobs for the state.

At least half of Wisconsin democrats said the nation's economy is not good and nearly all the rest rated it as poor. No big surprise there.

Wisconsin Republican primary voters felt better about the economy, but a majority still rated it as "not good" or "poor."

As in earlier open primaries this season, far more voters were participating in the Democratic than the Republican contest.

For about 1 in 7 Democratic voters, Tuesday was the first time they ever voted in a primary.

Men outnumbered women in Republican primaries while the reverse was true on the Democratic side. 9 in 10 voters in both primaries were white. The Republican electorate was slightly older than the Democratic.

4 in 10 in each party were college graduates.

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5j-rJkxLbJTFVe7_sztS_x_XcNpQwD8UTL7202

I don't really see any surprises anywhere in that, other than the fairly high rate of college graduates. If this tracks earlier exit polls, the relatively high rate of college grads would favor Obama. (According to census info, about 20% of the over-25 Wisconsin population have college degrees of one sort or another.)

Here's some earlier analysis of the educational demographics:


Clinton won voters without college degrees in 12 of the 16 states surveyed. In many instances, she carried these downscale voters by even larger margins than Obama amassed with his upscale supporters. Clinton won non-college-educated voters by 20 points in New Jersey, 22 points in California and Tennessee, 32 points in Massachusetts, 48 points in Oklahoma and 54 points in Arkansas. In California, exit polls found she carried non-college-educated white women -- the "waitress moms" who constitute her bedrock constituency -- by about 2-to-1.

More than anything else, Clinton's downscale strength explained her strong showing in most interior states. In places such as Oklahoma, Tennessee and Arizona, voters without a college education significantly outnumbered those with advanced degrees. Conversely, in Connecticut, the one state in the New York City metropolitan area that Obama won, college graduates cast nearly three-fifths of the vote.

http://news.nationaljournal.com/articles/080206nj1.htm

[Old Dude]

These early exit polls would seem to favor Hillary:

http://abcnews.go.com/PollingUnit/Vote2008/story?id=4312579&page=1

[A] substantial majority of Democratic voters are women, more than usual for a Wisconsin Democratic primary ...

The preliminary results also indicate that more seniors than usual are voting in the Democratic race -- up from their 2004 level, and also potentially a high for Democratic voters this cycle ...

Seniors and women are demographic groups that tend to favor Hillary.

And ...

nearly half of Democrats ... say they decided more than a month ago.

Hillary had a fairly solid lead there in January, so that might also be good news fo her.

[frerottenextelway]

According to leaked exit polls numbers, Obama made big gains in women, those w/out a college diploma, and lower incomes w/out giving up anything in his big demographics.

Via Politico:

Democratic officials with access to exit polls say Senator Obama looks like he’s headed for a huge win in today’s Wisconsin primary. The polls could turn out to be off, as they have in the past. But the officials’ revelation reflects the chatter in the campaigns in advance of the 9 p.m. Eastern poll closing.

The party officials said that if the trends reflect in the interviews with hundreds of Badger State voters, the news out of the primary will be: Obama encroached deeply into three of Clinton’s core groups of voters – women, those with no college degree and those with lower incomes – while giving up none of his own. However, Clinton looked to be winning senior citizens, the officials said.

[Rohirrim]

Looks like the Obamacult is growing.

[Old Dude]

This favors Obama:

(AP)

Exit polls show independents cast about one-quarter of the ballots in the Democratic race, and roughly 15% of the electorate were first-time voters. Obama has run well among independents in earlier primaries.

[frerottenextelway]

More from the exits:

Women
Obama 51
Clinton 49


We've seen how accurate the exists have been though.

[frerottenextelway]

What happens if Obama wins WI by 15% - 20%?

Is HC in Huckabee territory? Is the story in the media the next two weeks about Hillary conceding after TX and OH? I really think there will be a lot of pressure from the big wigs in the Democratic Party to have her concede if she doesn't sweep TX and OH convincingly.

Btw, I said this before, but everytime someone attacks Obama negatively, his numbers rise, this would seem to support that. He was consistently up only 4-5 points a week ago, it looks like he will win by 10 or more now. Does she still go negative for the next 2 weeks?

[theAPAOps5]

Found this on the realclear website thread for Wisconsin:

http://time-blog.com/real_clear_politics/

One item of interest from this blog:

Also, in data we haven't seen yet, Jim Geraghty (http://campaignspot.nationalreview.com/post/?q=YTU4NDQ4MDYyNjZkNjNkN2ZkODE1MTY0MDZmNWM0Y2Y=) is hearing a big Obama blowout. Something like 60-40. - BLAKE DVORAK

[TexanBob]

I won't believe Hillary is finished until the house falls on her and her toes curl up.

[frerottenextelway]

Obama has won!

[frerottenextelway]

Exit polling detail officialy released.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/#WIDEM

My numbers above were right. :)

[theAPAOps5]

Well I contend the Clintons will start making preparations for the lawsuits to include Florida and Michigan now that they are important to her. That and they will be in full on woo mode for Super Delegates and Pledged delegates.

[frerottenextelway]

How hilarious was it that Clinton didn't congradulate him (again), and the Obama campaign made the decision to start his speech in the middle of her, shutting her off.

[theAPAOps5]

The media also cut away from her in mid speech to air his victory speech.

[Traveler]

The media also cut away from her in mid speech to air his victory speech.

I've never seen something like that before. Guess the media does have a favorite.

Did you see the MAC-Cane speech. I thought listening to Bush was bad. At times, even his wife looked at him like she wished he would end his speech quickly.

[Rohirrim]

This is kind of an interesting political science experience for me; Watching the media select a president for the American people.

[Old Dude]

One of the talking heads noted that there was a breech of etiquette on both sides ... Hillary for not congratulating Obama on the Wisconsin victory ... or even mentioning Wisconsin, for that matter ... or thanking any of her people who worked for her there.

Obama for starting his speech in the middle of hers.

I don't think the media necessarily played a "favorite." I mean, what do you do if you were them? Both candidates are talking at the same time. Do you cover the night's loser, or the night's winner? I think that most media folks would opt to cover the speech of the "winner" unless there was something unusually dramatic going on in the other speech.

They did cut back to Hillary's speech when Obama was finished, but he took 45 minutes, which is a fairly long time, as these things go. Makes you wonder if he did that on purpose, too, just to shove Hillary further and further out of any sort of "prime time."

The contest became increasingly negative over the past week or two, and I think this is a reflection of that.

At some point, the Dems need to reel it in, or there will be ramifications at the convention and beyond that, to the general election.

[Old Dude]

Note: Hillary, speaking today in NY, was careful to mention that she called Obama yesterday evening to congratulate him on his victory.

[Bronco Bob]

This is kind of an interesting political science experience for me; Watching the media select a president for the American people.

Seems to have worked for some of the Orange Maners. Same sort of mentality
that won Bush the last two elections. The media picks a cute and fuzzy
candidate with no substance over the more competent but unlikable candidate
and the sheeple fall in line. Who ever said you had to like the president?
I'm voting for someone to lead the country, not go have a beer with.

[TailgateNut]

Seems to have worked for some of the Orange Maners. Same sort of mentality
that won Bush the last two elections. The media picks a cute and fuzzy
candidate with no substance over the more competent but unlikable candidate
and the sheeple fall in line. Who ever said you had to like the president?
I'm voting for someone to lead the country, not go have a beer with.

Slightly bitter, are we?

[Bronco Bob]

Slightly bitter, are we?

Just disappointed that the media continues to push hype over substance
and that people continue to fall for it.

[frerottenextelway]

Just disappointed that the media continues to push hype over substance
and that people continue to fall for it.

The media absolutely slammed Obama the 2 days leading up to WI over b.s. put out by Wolfson of the Clinton campaign. What happened? Obama went in with a 5 point lead and won by 17. Maybe voters are just tired of the Bush/Clinton foreign policy disasters and petty "he's stealing lines'' politics?

[Bronco Bob]

The media absolutely slammed Obama

Sure, anything you say, chief.

[theAPAOps5]

I would be mad too if my candidate went from pretty much a lock to nearly an also ran in a mere several months. Maybe America needs something other than Bush or Clinton. Maybe this country thinks that Hillary is really just all talk and power hungry. Pretty much Bush like traits. Who knows but not too long ago Hillary was the media darling. Yet you weren't complaining about the press coverage then.

[TailgateNut]

I would be mad too if my candidate went from pretty much a lock to nearly an also ran in a mere several months. Maybe America needs something other than Bush or Clinton. Maybe this country thinks that Hillary is really just all talk and power hungry. Pretty much Bush like traits. Who knows but not too long ago Hillary was the media darling. Yet you weren't complaining about the press coverage then.


This also relates to some of the comments by those who see Obama supporters as glasssy eyed sheep. When I had to pick a 2nd candidate Obama wasn't the media darling nor was he favored to win the nomination, so I have an issue with those comments. (on the other hand most of those comments come from either BroncoBob or the RP cheerleaders who are obviously disappointed in their waste of donations).

IMO the country is tired of the same old ****. Most know that if Billary gets in, Hill will have his hand in the inner workings of the white house. We can't just keep handing off the country from on family to the other and back again.
Her "experience cry" doesn't mean squat when considering the actual longevity of legislative work, and I'm not so sure that I want someone in office who already has played the "game" as it has been played. It's time for some new rules.

[Bronco Jamus]

Obama has big ideas, which is great. But there isn't a way to pay for them. he's the right candidate at the wrong time. 44 trillion dollar debt and counting according to CNN.

[Rohirrim]

Obama has big ideas, which is great. But there isn't a way to pay for them. he's the right candidate at the wrong time. 44 trillion dollar debt and counting according to CNN.

It's actually closer to $9 trillion, but what's a trillion here or there? Ron Paul would have done a much better job of dealing with this than Obama ever will. Just bringing the troops home and closing foreign bases brings in a trillion a year. Hell, Obama is personally responsible for $300 million in earmarks. He's not what you would call a balanced budget kind of guy.

[Bronco Jamus]

It's actually closer to $9 trillion, but what's a trillion here or there? Ron Paul would have done a much better job of dealing with this than Obama ever will. Just bringing the troops home and closing foreign bases brings in a trillion a year. Hell, Obama is personally responsible for $300 million in earmarks. He's not what you would call a balanced budget kind of guy.

I must have heard the 44 as a growth number or prediction. We need to put more pressure on congress. We can recall these people.

[Inkana7]

Alls I know is that this country's in a mess, and someone has to fix it.

And that McCain is not that person.

[Rohirrim]

Alls I know is that this country's in a mess, and someone has to fix it.

And that McCain is not that person.

Hell, McCain is the poster boy for the military/industrial complex. If McCain gets in the WH, Halliburton will think they died and went to heaven, as if Bush/Cheney wasn't paradise enough.

[TailgateNut]

Hell, McCain is the poster boy for the military/industrial complex. If McCain gets in the WH, Halliburton will think they died and went to heaven, as if Bush/Cheney wasn't paradise enough.


So if you think Obama is an airbag, and McCain is a Bush poster boy, who's your "guy/ girl"?

...and don't drag RP out from the back of the cupboard, he's not viable and has never been anything but a small blip on the radar screen.

[Rohirrim]

So if you think Obama is an airbag, and McCain is a Bush poster boy, who's your "guy/ girl"?

...and don't drag RP out from the back of the cupboard, he's not viable and has never been anything but a small blip on the radar screen.

Like I said, it's back to Dumb and Dumber, like every presidential election in my life. SOS. I'll pick whoever the Dem is for two reasons. First, I'm hoping they'll do less harm. Second, my sons will be hitting draft age during the next eight years. I don't want Insane McCain the Warmonger in there.

[Spider]

Second, my sons will be hitting draft age during the next eight years. I don't want Insane McCain the Warmonger in there.

Bingo I vote with my Kids future in mind also I have a 15 year old sass box ....err Daughter , and a 13 year old knothead ....err son that I have to look out for over the next 4 years ...... the rest are to young ;D

[frerottenextelway]

Make it 11 in a row. Obama takes down ''Democrats Abroad'' 66% to 33%.