Obama - Clinton Breakdown

[frerottenextelway]

Pledged Delegates*
Obama - 910
Clinton - 882

Unpledged Super Delegates*
Obama - 128
Clinton - 211

Total Delegates*
Obama - 1038
Clinton - 1093

*These aren't exact numbers. I don't think official pledged numbers are out yet for all states, and Super Delegates are just an outdated unofficial poll.

-------------------------------------------------------

Feb 9th States

Washington State - 97 delegates
Market Trading*
Obama - 93
Clinton - 10

Louisiana - 66 delegates
Market Trading*
Obama - 94
Clinton - 6

Nebraska - 31 delegates
Market Trading*
Obama - 93
Clinton - 15

Feb 10th

Maine
Market Trading*
Obama - 75
Clinton - 30

Feb 12th

Virginia - 101 delegates
Market Trading*
Obama - 85
Clinton - 30

Maryland - 98 delegates
Market Trading*
Obama - 90
Clinton - 11

DC - 33 delegates
Market Trading*
Obama - n/a
Clinton - n/a

Overal Market Trading*
Obama - 57
Clinton - 43

*Market trading doesn't add up to 100% because candidates are bought and sold seperately, not where you pick one or the other.

Moving past February, Texas and Ohio are both about even on the Market, although it's just way too early to much stock in those.

[TexanBob]

Don't you mean February, not March?

[Bob]

Good for Obama. I know he would be more liberal, but I just could not listen to Bilary's chalk-board-scatching voice for four years...and see Bill appointed to the UN...

I wish I didnt dislike those two so much its not always fair -- but the legacy has got to stop.

[Old Dude]

I don't know about the delegate counts, or about the exact "market" odds on the upcoming states, but it does seem like Clinton would have her best shots in Maine & Virginia and I'd expect her to focus her efforts there, especially Virginia, because Maine is a caucus state and has far fewer delegates at stake.

And it looks like I'm not the only one who sees Virginia as the next big battleground:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/story/2008/02/06/ST2008020604537.html

[baja]

I grew up in Maine and I think they will go for Obama.

[Old Dude]

Well, if Hillary loses 7 to 10 straight contests before we even get to March, the momentum could be too much, even for the Texas "firewall."

[Bronco Bob]

Karl Rove weighs in on the Clinton - Obama contest:

February 07, 2008

Karl Rove on the Democratic Race

Hannity & Colmes (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/alternate_template/hannity_colmes/)

COLMES: We now continue with Karl Rove. Karl, we kind of know what's
happening with the Republicans, but the Democrats are a big question mark.
How do you see it going on from here and the delegate count is what it's all
about. We're going to bring you -- I guess you got the blackboard there with
the Democrats on it.

ROVE: I do. This is really complicated. First of all, the Democrats are very
-- the Associated Press says Hillary has 832 delegates, and Obama has 821.
Now, they need 2025 to nominate. They are both a long way from it.
But closely -- you know, closely bunched up there. This week, there are 182
delegates yet to be chosen in caucuses and primaries on Friday -- or excuse
me on Saturday and Sunday.

COLMES: Right.

ROVE: Louisiana, Washington State and Nebraska vote on Saturday and on
Sunday is Maine with a caucus. These should advantage Obama because
there are three caucuses. As you recall, on Tuesday night he did really
well in the caucus states. And then, of course, Louisiana has a substantial
African-American population. Washington State does not, but it is a caucus
state. Nebraska is a primary and Maine is a caucus.

Then, next Tuesday, we have the so-called Potomac or Chesapeake Primary
with 168 delegates. Senator Clinton should do well in Virginia. It should be
offset by roughly equal performance in Maryland by Senator Obama and then
District of Columbia, which should go to Obama. Again, 168 delegates,
because of the proportional rules, this really means that one candidate
or the other will literally gain 5 or 10 delegates on the opposition.
Then, later in the month we have Wisconsin, which is likely to be good
Obama territory, and Puerto Rico, which is likely to be good for Senator
Clinton. But the big one is March 4th, where we have Texas with 193
delegates, Ohio with 141. Both of those should be good for Clinton.
And Vermont with 15, which should be good for Senator Obama.
But 349 delegates and winning it by the margin that I think Senator Clinton
is likely to get means that she is going to pick up more territory here on the
4th than Obama is going to pick up earlier in February.

COLMES: At this point Karl -- this is risky territory, but could you predict
who the nominee will be for the Democrats based on what you know?

ROVE: I think it's going to be Senator Clinton because I think Senator Obama's
best shots are largely behind him. That is to say, between what has
been voted on through Tuesday night and what comes in February, he has
had more caucus states where he does well and he has had most of the
states that have substantial African-American populations, where he has
done extremely well.
But, look, it's going to be a very close contest. I suspect that it's ultimately
going -- the margin of victory is going to be decided by how the Super
Delegates split. That is to say, the delegates that are actually elected in
caucuses and primaries will be closely divided, probably with a small
advantage to Senator Clinton, maybe with a small advantage to Senator
Obama. But I think ultimately what happens among those Super Delegates
will provide the margin of victory and give a little bit of acceleration to the
winner by giving him or her a slightly larger margin.

HANNITY: Karl, I like that blackboard here. Honestly, that's a fascinating analysis.

COLMES: Very high tech.

HANNITY: Super Tuesday, Obama wins 13 states, she wins eight states.
The news was that night that she won the delegate count. Turns out that
Barack Obama won the delegate count. Then we hear issues of financial
woes that she's having. So my question is one of momentum.
Did Barack Obama, as evidenced by the money that is coming into his
campaign and her money financial struggles, is that going to factor in,
that is he gaining here?

ROVE: Well, she is going to be outspent. She was outspent on Tuesday night.
But, look, if he brings in 7.2 million dollars and she brings in 6.4 million dollars
on the Internet within a 48 hour period, that's roughly equal. We are talking
about who got their email message out first and, you know, I suspect he will
continue to out raise her. But it's not going to be by a margin enough to
guarantee a victory.
She has some intangible assets in the form of the nature of the contests
that are yet to come. You mention he won more state. Think about the
states that he won. He won Idaho. Does anybody realistically think that
Idaho is going to be won by the Democrats in the fall? It was a caucus with
literally with a handful of people voting. North Dakota, there were 17,000
people in North Dakota voted in the Democratic caucuses or 18,000.
That is a small fraction of the state's Democrats, who are an embattled
minority.

HANNITY: Go ahead.

ROVE: The caucuses gave him a big advantage. Without the caucuses,
if those had been primaries -- take a look at Idaho and Utah, I mean,
you know, Clinton did a lot better in a primary state in Utah than she did
in a caucus state just to the north that shares a lot of characteristics.



http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/02/karl_rove_on_the_democratic_race.html

[Old Dude]

(Karl Rove) Nebraska is a primary and Maine is a caucus.




Actually, I think Nebraska is also a caucus state.

From: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/08/648157.aspx

-- Nebraska caucuses: 24 delegates at stake. (16 delegates selected as a result of the caucuses proportionally by CD, of which there are 3, 15% threshold; other 8 are selected at the June 28 state convention based on preferences of state convention delegates, 15% threshold.) There is same-day registration at the caucuses, and they operate similar to how they do in Iowa. Caucusing begins as early as 11:00 am ET and they end as late as 9:30 pm ET.

[Old Dude]

And this is still way too early, but if this poll is accurate, Hillary could have her work cut out in Va.:

http://www.southernpoliticalreport.com/storylink_28_206.aspx

Obama: 52%
Clinton: 37%
Other: 1%
Undecided: 10%

In the survey Obama led among African-American voters, while Clinton and Obama were evenly splitting the white vote in the survey.

I would have guessed that she'd be doing much better there.

[Bronco Bob]

Actually, I think Nebraska is also a caucus state.

From: http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/02/08/648157.aspx

-- Nebraska caucuses: 24 delegates at stake. (16 delegates selected as a result of the caucuses proportionally by CD, of which there are 3, 15% threshold; other 8 are selected at the June 28 state convention based on preferences of state convention delegates, 15% threshold.) There is same-day registration at the caucuses, and they operate similar to how they do in Iowa. Caucusing begins as early as 11:00 am ET and they end as late as 9:30 pm ET.

You are correct. Both Nebraska and Maine are caucus states.

[Old Dude]

I went back and re-read Rove's analysis and it looks like he did mention that initially, and then mis-spoke. It happens.

Again ... I don't really have any big preference for Clinton vs. Obama. I'd be happy with either one. And if I was polled today, I'd be a firm "undecided."

But it sure looks like Obama is poised to hit very hard before the March primaries.

[alkemical]

I went back and re-read Rove's analysis and it looks like he did mention that initially, and then mis-spoke. It happens.

Again ... I don't really have any big preference for Clinton vs. Obama. I'd be happy with either one. And if I was polled today, I'd be a firm "undecided."

But it sure looks like Obama is poised to hit very hard before the March primaries.

Seems that with Rove and allot of people that he worked with "mis-spoke" quite a bit.....

[Old Dude]

I mean, seriously ...

If Obama takes the 4 upcoming caucuses, which seems fairly likely, then sweeps the Potomac primaries on February 12 (which looks possible), then that would be following Super Tuesday with 7 straight wins in five different parts of the country (west coast, midwest, south, northeast and mid-atlantic):

Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, D.C., Virginia

And that just seems like an awful lot of momentum, even if Hillary stays reasonably close in the delegate counts.

And if Obama takes Wisconsin on 2-19, where he should do very well and Hawaii, yet another caucus state, the same date, then that would make nine out of ten, broken only by a probable Clinton win in the Virgin Islands.

And that's all before the two week break that comes before we get to the Ohio & Texas contests. That's a lot of time for those victories to "sink in."

[Bronco Bob]

I mean, seriously ...

If Obama takes the 4 upcoming caucuses, which seems fairly likely, then sweeps the Potomac primaries on February 12 (which looks possible), then that would be following Super Tuesday with 7 straight wins in five different parts of the country (west coast, midwest, south, northeast and mid-atlantic):

Washington, Nebraska, Louisiana, Maine, Maryland, D.C., Virginia

And that just seems like an awful lot of momentum, even if Hillary stays reasonably close in the delegate counts.

And if Obama takes Wisconsin on 2-19, where he should do very well and Hawaii, yet another caucus state, the same date, then that would make nine out of ten, broken only by a probable Clinton win in the Virgin Islands.

And that's all before the two week break that comes before we get to the Ohio & Texas contests. That's a lot of time for those victories to "sink in."

It will be interesting to see what Republicans do now that McCain virtually
has the nomination. Some of these states let voters change their party
affiliation right on election day. Do Republican voters just sit it out or
vote for McCain in meaningless primaries? Or do they register as Democrats
to screw the Democrats? So let's say they do that. Do they then
vote for Hillary because they think she's be easier to beat in November,
or do they vote for Obama just to screw Hillary? Be interesting to
see an exit poll on how many recently registered Democrats were
voting for one or the other.

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Or do they register as Democrats
to screw the Democrats?

Of course they do.

Screwing the country is always a small price to pay for screwing the Democrats (see: Clinton years, election '04, etc.)

[W*GS]

Don't you ever get tired of being a hyperpartisan hack, LABF?

What do you care if the GOP screws the Dems, anyway?

Haven't you washed your hands of that GOP-lite party, and are now agitating in favor of far-left socialism?

[L.A. BRONCOS FAN]

Don't you ever get tired of being Ken Starr's cabana boy and a deflection artist for the GOP, W*GS?

What do you care if I point out the truth about the GOP's track record during the Clinton years?

I thought you weren't a republi-con?

[W*GS]

Thanks for proving my point.

[Old Dude]

... Do Republican voters just sit it out or
vote for McCain in meaningless primaries?

I'm not sure about card-carrying registered republicans, but I don't have too much doubt that the closer contest on the democratic will bring in a lot of independents (who otherwise might have been more interested in the GOP) who will toss in their two cents. And then many of those same people might vote GOP in the general election.

[frerottenextelway]

Poll are coming in, not good news for Clinton

Maryland SurveyUSA Clinton 33, Obama 52 Obama +19
Virginia SurveyUSA Obama 59, Clinton 39 Obama +20
Virginia InsiderAdvantage Obama 52, Clinton 37 Obama +15

[frerottenextelway]

Very early exit polls and other indicators expecting Obama to route Clinton in Nebraska. Washington and Louisiana may be closer than expected.

[frerottenextelway]

Results coming in.

Obama more than doubling Clinton in Nebraska and Washington.

No results in for LA yet.


Edit: Obama has won Nebraska, winning nearly 70% of the vote.

[elsid13]

Obama wins Washington accord to Yahoo.

[rugbythug]

I don't get the Obama Love? I get that he is Black and Black people like that. Kinda like Denver Loved Mcaffery more than Rod Even though Rod was the better player. But It seems to me (I am very conservative-and not the compassionate kind) that he has absolutely no ideas or record. He just goes around rallying for change, change to what? Less Gov't Intrusion in our lives (I wish) Or Gov't growing out of control (my fear). The only thing worse than big business is Big Gov't.

[frerottenextelway]

I don't get the Obama Love? I get that he is Black and Black people like that. Kinda like Denver Loved Mcaffery more than Rod Even though Rod was the better player. But It seems to me (I am very conservative-and not the compassionate kind) that he has absolutely no ideas or record. He just goes around rallying for change, change to what? Less Gov't Intrusion in our lives (I wish) Or Gov't growing out of control (my fear). The only thing worse than big business is Big Gov't.

Imo...

It's the "Howard Dean movement". The movment that went with Dean was the same emotional plea of change to the fundamentals of how politics is worked. That movement was almost as strong as this Obama movement, it just ran into the problem that the face of the movement fell flat on his face. This time around, the movement has found a leader that is as poweful as the movement itself.

That's what I think is fascinating about this race. Their policies are largely the same, but you have the establishment candidate saying she is the better candidate to destroy those on the other side of the aisle. Then you have the movment candidate, who is saying that destroying the other side shouldn't be the goal.

[Bronco Bob]

I don't get the Obama Love? I get that he is Black and Black people like that. Kinda like Denver Loved Mcaffery more than Rod Even though Rod was the better player. But It seems to me (I am very conservative-and not the compassionate kind) that he has absolutely no ideas or record. He just goes around rallying for change, change to what? Less Gov't Intrusion in our lives (I wish) Or Gov't growing out of control (my fear). The only thing worse than big business is Big Gov't.

It's also a generational and income thing. Older people and people who
make under $100,000 a year are going for Hillary. Also while Obama
has the Black vote, Hillary has the Hispanic vote. So in states
with lots of younger well off voters, and high Black populations
Obama does well. In poorer states, state with a lot of elderly, and states
with a high Hispanic population Hillary does well. Also Obama does well
in Caucus states where more of the radical left shows up to vote.
Hillary isn't very popular with the radical left. For example, MoveOn
endorsed Obama.
I think some of it is not so much they like Obama as they hate
Hillary. It's sort of the Anybody But Hillary vote.

[frerottenextelway]

Reported: Obama has won Nebraska, Washington State, Louisiana, and the Virgin Islands, all by substantial amounts.

[Bronco Bob]

Reported: Obama has won Nebraska, Washington State, Louisiana, and the Virgin Islands, all by substantial amounts.

Caucus state. Caucus State. State with 50% African American vote.
Gee, did you expect otherwise? I could have predicted that Feb. 6th.

[frerottenextelway]

Caucus state. Caucus State. State with 50% African American vote.
Gee, did you expect otherwise?

I told you before, I kinda expected him to sweep through March 4th. I didn't expect him to take Nebraska by quite as much as he did though, and really didn't think he'd take Washington by a 2-1 margin.

[Bronco Bob]

I told you before, I kinda expected him to sweep through March 4th. I didn't expect him to take Nebraska by quite as much as he did though, and really didn't think he'd take Washington by a 2-1 margin.

Why not? Obama took Idaho 79% to 17% Clinton. Alaska 75% to 25%.
Kansas 74% to 26%. Nebraska is right next door to Kansas. Idaho
is right next door to Washington. If anything Clinton did a little bit
better tonight in the two caucus states.

[baja]

I fear the Obama movement will turn out to be the O Bowel movement.

[frerottenextelway]

Why not? Obama took Idaho 79% to 17% Clinton. Alaska 75% to 25%.
Kansas 74% to 26%. Nebraska is right next door to Kansas. Idaho
is right next door to Washington. If anything Clinton did a little bit
better tonight in the two caucus states.

Obama had routes in Kansas though, and was endorsed by the very popular female govenor. He also was the only candidate to campaign in Idaho, hosting a rally and running on TV. I think WA was the bigger surprise though, the last poll (a really long time ago) had Clinton winning the state by 26 points. Granted, a lot has changed since then, and we expected Clinton to lose WA, but she lost by 35 points.

[Bronco Bob]

It's interesting that Tailgate accused me of wearing a white sheet
when I mentioned Obama would probably win Louisiana because
it has a high African American population, despite most of the
news commentators saying the same thing. But look at the
Louisiana exit polls.

White 46%
Clinton 70%
Obama 26%

Black 49%
Clinton 18%
Obama 82%

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#LADEM

[rugbythug]

People like people who look like them no news there

[baja]

Whom do you like

[TailgateNut]

I get that he is Black and Black people like that. Kinda like Denver Loved Mcaffery more than Rod Even though Rod was the better player. .

Damn! Where do you keep your robe and dunce cap?

[Rohirrim]

In a general election, which one of these states, Alaska, Kansas, Nebraska and Idaho, would Obama have the slightest chance to win? That's right. Not one of them.

[baja]

He might win Kansas

[frerottenextelway]

Obama beats Clinton in Maine - a place Clinton put in significant effort to win - and also won a Grammy over Bill Clinton for the audio version of his book "The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream."

That makes 5 straight contests Obama has won (6 including the Grammy). Next up the chesapeake states on Tuesday.

[Maximus]

Obama won Maine tonight

[baja]

I predicted that..

[Rohirrim]

He might win Kansas

Last time I looked, registered Repubs outnumber registered Dems in Kansas by a couple of hundred thousand. It would be a surprise for a Dem to win the state. Of course, the Kansas Repubs tend to be socially conservative. I suppose it's possible a lot of them won't turn out for McCain.