Historical Analysis - 3rd Year QBs in Shanahan's System

[Inkana7]

In my opinion, there's too much doom and gloom going on around here. Everyone's pointing a finger at Shanny and talking about how there's no hope for next year. Well, I really think there is. Shanny's getting back to basics, the principles in both coaching and personell that won 2 Super Bowls.

My breakdown of that theory will come later. Right now, I'll give a short analysis of the progress of every starting QB in Shanahan's offensive system. They've all had big 3rd years in this proven effective system.

Steve Young.

Mike Shanahan came into San Fransisco in 1992, and three years later, in 1994, he engineered one of the greatest offenses of all time to a World Title. This is most attributed to the great year that Steve Young had.

Year 1: 268-402(66.7%), 3465 Yards, 25 TDs, 7 INTs, 107 Rating
Year 2: 314-462(68%), 4023 Yards, 29 TDs, 16 INTs, 101.5 Rating
Year 3: 324 461(70.3%), 3969 Yards, 35 TDs, 10 INTs, 112.8 Rating.

Obviously, Steve was a great QB before Shanny. But with Shanahan, he had the best seasons he ever had, and some of the best in NFL history. After Shanahan, he had one great season in 1998 when he threw 36 TDs, but other than that season, the most TDs he threw after Shanahan was 20 in 1995.

John Elway.

After remarkable success coordinating SF's offense, Shanahan came here to Denver, and inherited another hall of fame Quarterback in John Elway. Even an all-time great improved from year 1 to year 3.

Year 1: 316-542(58.3%), 3970 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 86.4 Rating
Year 2: 287-466(61.6%), 3328 yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs, 89.2 Rating
Year 3: 280-502(55.8), 3635 yards, 27 TDs, 11 INTs, 87.5 Rating

Elway's improvement wasn't as drastic as Young's, but it was there. He threw more TDs, less INTs, and for more yards than in 1996, and brought a Super Bowl to Denver. His passes on average were also for more yardage than the previous two years. Elway never threw more TDs than when he was paired with Mike Shanahan.

Brian Greise.

Yeah, yeah, SOB and such. Greise didn't play much during his rookie year in 1998, but he was still learning the Shanahan system. His most efficent season came in his lone Pro Bowl season of 2000, his third year with Shanahan.

Year 1: 1-3(33.3%), 2 Yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT, 2.7 Rating
Year 2: 261-452(57.7%), 3032 Yards, 14 TDs, 14 INTs, 75.6 Rating
Year 3: 216-336(64.3%), 2688 Yards, 19 TDs, 4 INTs, 102.9 Rating

I feel it's significant to note that Greise did this while starting only 10 games. He averaged almost 2 TDs and 269 Yards a game. That's a pretty nice season. Unfortunatly, Greise owned a dog. And the rest is history.

Jake Plummer.

Jake the Snake may have been the most controversial QB ever to step in to Denver. But for 3 Years, Jake delievered wins and put Denver into semi-contention. In his 3rd Year with Shanahan Plummer had the greatest season of his career and got Denver to the AFC Championship with his effiecent, mistake-free play.

Year 1: 189-302(62.6%), 2182 Yards, 15 TDs, 7 INTs, 91.2 Rating
Year 2: 303-521(58.2%), 4089 Yards, 27 TDs, 20 INTs, 84.5 Rating
Year 3: 277-456(60.7%), 3366 Yards, 18 TDs, 7 INTs, 90.2 Rating

Plummer came in to Denver known as one of the leauge's most mistake-prone Quarterbacks, but in his 3rd year with Shanahan, Jake actually earned the moniker "No Mistake Jake". If I'm not mistaken, he set the franchise record for most consecutive passes without an interception, and was close to tying the leauge record. He was extremely efficent, and Denver won 14 games because of it.

Jay Cutler.

Out of the three Quarterbacks Mike Shanahan has had since John Elway retired, it's fairly easy to tell that Jay Cutler is by far the most talented. His arm is simply a laser, and his accuracy and leadership and poise have impressed many. This may have been the first offseason since Elway retired that no one in the Media is mentioning the QB as any sort of area of concern. Cutler had a pretty good 5 game stretch his rookie season, setting a few records, and his progression from year 1 to year 2 is noticable, especially completion %.

Year 1: 81-137(59.1%), 1001 Yards, 9 TDs, 5 INTs, 88.5 Rating
Year 2: 297-467(63.6%), 3497 Yards, 20 TDs, 14 INTs, 88.1 Rating
Year 3: ?

What will Year 3 bring for our young star in the making? If Shanahan's past history with QBs means anything, we should see great things from Young Cutler. I'm excited.

[yavoon]

elway's second year was better, and plummer's first year was better, also counting year 1 w/ griese going 1-3 is kinda bunk.

[Inkana7]

If you'd like I could add that Greise threw a career high 23 TDs in his 4th year in the system?

[yavoon]

If you'd like I could add that Greise threw a career high 23 TDs in his 4th year in the system?

well ur gna have to make up ur mind at the very least. but yes I would include his third significant starting year.

[goldengopher1976]

elway's second year was better, and plummer's first year was better, also counting year 1 w/ griese going 1-3 is kinda bunk.

Elway's second year and Plummer's first year may have produced better QB ratings, but that doesn't necessarily indicate they were better years.

[yavoon]

Elway's second year and Plummer's first year may have produced better QB ratings, but that doesn't necessarily indicate they were better years.

elway's second also produced a significantly better completion %. Im sure arguments could be made. but even having them close kinda rapes the whole theory. the theory being that players "blossom" in shanny's third year because a shanny offense is like a PHD in nonlinear mathematics.

[CBF1]

I am still waiting for the breakdown.

[BroncoBuff]

Kind of a stretch ... but an interesting stretch.

[Florida_Bronco]

Good start BroncoBuff. I'm excited for next year.

Whoops, for some reason I spaced out and thought BB started this thread. My bad.

[Man-Goblin]

elway's second also produced a significantly better completion %. Im sure arguments could be made. but even having them close kinda rapes the whole theory. the theory being that players "blossom" in shanny's third year because a shanny offense is like a PHD in nonlinear mathematics.

True, and one problem Cutler doesn't have is completion percentage. 63+% for a second year QB is outstanding, and we all know how well he did on 3rd down.

[Jetmeck]

Cutler gets better protection and cuts down on bone head INTS as he should as he gets more seasoned then we'll be fine, actually more than fine considering the talent he has to throw to. One area I am not worried about.

[Cito Pelon]

I guess it is a little exciting. He seems like a solid long term QB, somebody you don't worry about. The big deal is to build a Title-level team around him, and that's a real big deal right now.

[alkemical]

The thing with Cutler, is he has the knack for looking for the big play. He'll cut the Int's down as he understands Defenses more (as well as Defensive players). Increasing the talent around him on the OL will be a huge help. I think the RB situation is fine with henry & young. Maybe another draftee for dept (or to fight for a roster spot).

Building the D up will only help this team not only win games, but be able to close them out. It will soon be that the other team won't want to give Cutler & Co. the ball back.

[elsid13]

I don't know if Cutler numbers will get better, but he should have a full understanding of the offense and understand his reads and location of this recievers.

[OrangeShadow]

His numbers will get better if the offensive line gets better.