footballsfuture mock

[oubronco]

http://www.footballsfuture.com/2008/nflmockdraft.html

interesting i don't think that taking a olb is in there best interest i'd take about half of the guys 13 thru 31 than Rivers

pretty good player writeups

[-Slap-]

Drafting Keith Rivers at 12 would make me throw up. I wouldn't want him at 43.

[Smelvin]

man...if wiinning that game v Minn costs us a shot at Ellis without having trade up.....ouch. He and Thomas would be quite the dynamic duo inside....

[brncs_fan]

Ellis won't make it out of the top 5 the way his star has been rising.

[Drek]

Ellis won't make it out of the top 5 the way his star has been rising.

His star would have to rise pretty momentously for that to happen.

Look at draft history. From 2001-2003 there were 13 DTs taken in the first round. Two in the top ten and a DT taken at #12 every one of those seasons.

All of them were pretty much busts except Seymour, Henderson, and to some degree Haynesworth.

Since then teams have been extremely skittish on taking DTs that high. Amobi Okoye was the only top 10 pick, at #10 exactly, last season.

Many of them have gone in the early teens though. As a prospect I'd expect Ellis to rank out fairly comparable to those early teens DTs (Haloti Ngata, Tommi Harris, Justin Harrell, Travis Johnson, Brod Bunkley). Dorsey is clearly the top DT, I could see Ellis sliding right into our laps at #12 in this solid draft class.

[mattob14]

His star would have to rise pretty momentously for that to happen.

Look at draft history. From 2001-2003 there were 13 DTs taken in the first round. Two in the top ten and a DT taken at #12 every one of those seasons.

All of them were pretty much busts except Seymour, Henderson, and to some degree Haynesworth.

Since then teams have been extremely skittish on taking DTs that high. Amobi Okoye was the only top 10 pick, at #10 exactly, last season.

Many of them have gone in the early teens though. As a prospect I'd expect Ellis to rank out fairly comparable to those early teens DTs (Haloti Ngata, Tommi Harris, Justin Harrell, Travis Johnson, Brod Bunkley). Dorsey is clearly the top DT, I could see Ellis sliding right into our laps at #12 in this solid draft class.

I'm not so sure about that. A lot of mocks had Ellis going top-10 before this week and a big week in Mobile will only push him that much higher. Oakland, Cinci, and NO could all be landing spots for him. Ellis doesn't have the questions some of those other guys had (Ngata and Bunkley both had ACL surgeries previously, Harrell had the torn muscle, etc.) and seems to have a good buzz right now. If he's available at #12 though, he's one of the few prospects who I think would actually be worth the pick.

[Drek]

I'm not so sure about that. A lot of mocks had Ellis going top-10 before this week and a big week in Mobile will only push him that much higher. Oakland, Cinci, and NO could all be landing spots for him. Ellis doesn't have the questions some of those other guys had (Ngata and Bunkley both had ACL surgeries previously, Harrell had the torn muscle, etc.) and seems to have a good buzz right now. If he's available at #12 though, he's one of the few prospects who I think would actually be worth the pick.
Ellis had arthroscopic knee surgery last year, FYI, so its not like he's walking into the draft question free.

Ngata was talked about as a top 10 selection and he slid. Tommi Harris was on the cover of ESPN the Magazine and was seen as one of the best one gap DTs in a long time, he slid.

Teams get cold feet with DTs. The three years of momentous busts have scared many teams off and many defenses have moved away from using the DT as a stud and now rely on DEs to be the playmakers. Ellis is a one gapper that also only fits well in certain systems, 4-3 fronts that do actually use the DT to rush the passer.

There aren't really any cover 2 teams in front of us, which would be the best fit for him.

Break it down.

He won't go in the top 3, thats pretty obvious.

Atlanta? There's a need, but they need a marquee draftee to get some credibility back. They're also pursuing Spagnoli of the Giants, so he'd run a front that doesn't really utilize a guy like Ellis to generate pass rush.

Oakland? Terdell Sands and Gerard Warren look like decent options for their defense. I'd imagine they look for help at many other positions before getting a high pick at an already fairly solid position.

KC? Edwards has made it pretty obvious that they'll be going defense here, if not I'd think QB would be high on their list. I'd expect them to be one of the more gun shy teams about taking a DT as well.

Jets? They run a 3-4, Ellis doesn't fit there.

Pats? See above.

Ravens? I guess they might be interested if Harbaugh wants to move them back to a 4-3 full time, but even then they've got a plethora of guys who can play DT in a 4-3 or 3-4 front, doubt Newsome could be talked into drafting another when they have so many big needs on offense.

Bengals? Probably the most likely person to take him before us, but they have a lot of needs, many more pressing than DT. Marvin Lewis' system has never focused heavily on pass rushing DTs, so he's probably not a great fit in the system as it is currently, and they have big needs at linebacker. I expect the first LB off the board here, not Ellis.

Saints? Gave Hollis Thomas big money to stay last off-season, doubt they'll tie even more big money contracts up at DL, and they have some solid secondary role players. They desperately need linebackers.

Bills? Drafted McCargo in the first just a couple years ago, Tripplett is a solid vet, and they have some ok guys behind them. Far from their biggest need.

So that puts him there for us short of a trade up or someone just being unable to resist BPA even if he isn't a fit for their system. Most GMs find it hard to go BPA on a high 1st DT that doesn't fit your scheme, what with how often those kinds of selections have busted in recent history.

[mattob14]

Drek, I hope you're right. I know DT has traditionally been one of the tougher positions to scout, but Ellis doesn't seem to have any of the usual injury/motivation quesitons that linger with most guys. I don't consider a scope a big deal long-term, it's nowhere near as concerning as the ACL tears a couple of guys had. Ellis also seems to be more of a late-riser in comparison to a few of those guys, which usually seems to help come draft day. Like I said, I hope you're right and he's one of a couple of players I'd actually like to use the #12 pick on. He and Thomas would give us a very nice tandem for a long time if they can both stay healthy. I just think there are enough teams in front of us that would be interested (I already listed 3) that it'll be tough to get him.

[oubronco]

Ellis had arthroscopic knee surgery last year, FYI, so its not like he's walking into the draft question free.

Ngata was talked about as a top 10 selection and he slid. Tommi Harris was on the cover of ESPN the Magazine and was seen as one of the best one gap DTs in a long time, he slid.

Teams get cold feet with DTs. The three years of momentous busts have scared many teams off and many defenses have moved away from using the DT as a stud and now rely on DEs to be the playmakers. Ellis is a one gapper that also only fits well in certain systems, 4-3 fronts that do actually use the DT to rush the passer.

There aren't really any cover 2 teams in front of us, which would be the best fit for him.

Break it down.

He won't go in the top 3, thats pretty obvious.

Atlanta? There's a need, but they need a marquee draftee to get some credibility back. They're also pursuing Spagnoli of the Giants, so he'd run a front that doesn't really utilize a guy like Ellis to generate pass rush.

Oakland? Terdell Sands and Gerard Warren look like decent options for their defense. I'd imagine they look for help at many other positions before getting a high pick at an already fairly solid position.

KC? Edwards has made it pretty obvious that they'll be going defense here, if not I'd think QB would be high on their list. I'd expect them to be one of the more gun shy teams about taking a DT as well.

Jets? They run a 3-4, Ellis doesn't fit there.

Pats? See above.

Ravens? I guess they might be interested if Harbaugh wants to move them back to a 4-3 full time, but even then they've got a plethora of guys who can play DT in a 4-3 or 3-4 front, doubt Newsome could be talked into drafting another when they have so many big needs on offense.

Bengals? Probably the most likely person to take him before us, but they have a lot of needs, many more pressing than DT. Marvin Lewis' system has never focused heavily on pass rushing DTs, so he's probably not a great fit in the system as it is currently, and they have big needs at linebacker. I expect the first LB off the board here, not Ellis.

Saints? Gave Hollis Thomas big money to stay last off-season, doubt they'll tie even more big money contracts up at DL, and they have some solid secondary role players. They desperately need linebackers.

Bills? Drafted McCargo in the first just a couple years ago, Tripplett is a solid vet, and they have some ok guys behind them. Far from their biggest need.

So that puts him there for us short of a trade up or someone just being unable to resist BPA even if he isn't a fit for their system. Most GMs find it hard to go BPA on a high 1st DT that doesn't fit your scheme, what with how often those kinds of selections have busted in recent history.

with your philosophy who takes Dorsey ?

[Drek]

I'm guessing St. Louis or whomever is picking #3, assuming there is a McFadden trade up.

I see Miami taking Chris Long. he's a great fit for a young team moving to the 3-4. If he doesn't fair well at the combine I could see Dorsey taking his place and playing a Richard Seymour type of role, but Long is the ideal if he puts up numbers this scouting season.