Week 7 /// STAT’ UPDATE \\\

[DeuceOfClub]

Numbers are looking better in many categories all across the board, but there are still many reasons for concern.


Week 4 (http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=61561)
Week 5 (http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=61835)
Week 6 (http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=62078)


For comparison, if you’re interested, last years final stat can be found here: 2006 (http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=83387), 2005 (http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=50418).

Feel free to suggest more categories if you think they can be helpful or other ideas for improvement.

[DeuceOfClub]

Offense

STAT SCORE RANK FIRST LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
points / game 17.7 26 +1 Patriots(39.9) Rams(11.3)
yards / game 358.3 5 == Patriots(432.9) 49ers(213.8)
1st downs / game 20.0 T8 +2 Patriots(25.6) 49ers(12.7)
3rd down conversions 50.7% 3 +4 Colts(54.5%) 49ers(25.3%)
4th down conversions 37.5% 24 -1 (100.0%) Titans(16.7%)
time of possession 29:39 18 -3 Steelers(34:36) 49ers(26:08)
avg’ starting fp 25.8 32 == Titans(34.7) Broncos(25.8)
run / pass ratio 48.1% 13 -1 Titans(55.1%) Packers(32.9%)

rush yards / game 130.7 9 -1 Vikings(163.7) Packers(65.7)
rush attempts / game 28.0 13 -3 Titans(36.8) (20.2)
average yards / rush 4.7 6 == Vikings(5.5) Texans(3.1)

pass yards / game 227.7 T11 +1 Patriots(299.4) 49ers(125.0)
pass attempts / game 30.2 22 == (41.2) Bills(24.5)
completion percentage 66.3% 6 +6 Patriots(73.3%) Vikings(48.8%)
avg’ yards / attempt 7.5 5 +1 Patriots(9.0) 49ers(4.3)
avg’ yards / completion 11.4 6 +1 Browns(13.7) Bills(8.1)

total giveaway / game *** 2.2 22 +2 Colts(0.7) Ramss(3.3)
Intercepted / game *** 1.3 T23 -5 Bucc’s(0.1) Rams(2.1)
fumbles lost / game *** 0.8 T15 +5 Jets(0.1) Titans(1.5)
total fumbles / game *** 1.8 22 == Jets(0.6) Raiders(2.8)

sacked / game *** 1.3 7 == Saints(0.7) Lions(5.2)
sacked yards / game *** 6.7 5 -3 Saints(4.7) 49ers(29.0)

(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)

Red Zone Efficiency:
Total 1st down inside opp’ 20: 19
Total Touchdowns: 10 (52.6% success)
Total Field-Goals: 8
Total giveaways: 0
Turnovers on downs: 1
Kneel downs: 0



Defense


STAT SCORE RANK FIRST LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
points / game *** 27.3 26 +1 Steelers(13.0) Dolphins(33.0)
yards / game *** 340.8 20 -2 Steelers(250.3) Browns(413.0)
1st downs / game *** 19.8 25 -5 Ravens(13.4) (23.7)
3rd down conversions *** 49.3% 30 -4 Patriots(30.7%) Dolphins(52.9%)
4th down conversions *** 100% T27 -1 (0.0%) (100%)
opp’ avg’ starting fp *** 30.1 18 +1 Patriots(25.6) Browns(34.6)
run / pass ratio *** 60.1% 32 == Titans(31.0%) Broncos(60.1%)

rush yards / game *** 176.2 32 == Titans(59.7) Broncos(176.2)
rush attempts / game *** 34.7 31 == Titans(17.3) Dolphins(35.6)
average yards / rush *** 5.1 31 == Ravens(2.9) Raiders(5.2)

pass yards / game *** 164.7 2 -1 Colts(162.2) Vikings(282.5)
pass attempts / game *** 23.0 1 == Broncos(23.0) Vikings(41.0)
completion percentage *** 67.4% 30 -2 Steelers(55.2%) Lions(72.1%)
avg’ yards / attempt *** 7.2 28 -6 Redskins(5.2) Dolphins(8.5)
avg’ yards / completion *** 10.6 17 -3 Colts(7.9) Dolphins(13.8)

total takeaway / game 1.5 25 +4 (2.7) Saints(0.8)
Interceptions / game 1.0 T16 +8 (1.7) Saints(0.5)
fumbles recovered / game 0.5 T23 +4 Vikings(1.5) Raiders(0.0)
total fumbles / game 1.2 21 +1 Lions(3.5) Raiders(0.3)

sacks / game 2.2 16 +4 Giants(3.9) Panthers(0.7)
sack yards / game 14.8 15 +4 Seahawks(23.9) Bills(4.7)


(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)

Red Zone defense:
Total 1st down inside Denver 20: 20
Total Touchdowns: 13 (65.0% success)
Total Field-Goals: 5
Total takeaways: 1
Turnovers on downs: 1
Kneel downs: 0



Special Teams

STAT SCORE RANK FIRST LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
punts average 51.3 1 == Broncos(51.3) Titans(38.8)
punts net average 38.1 9 +15 49ers(44.0) Colts(30.9)
kickoffs average 67.3 T5 +3 (69.2) Bucc’s(60.5)

punts return average 6.3 T26 == Bills(22.4) Raiders(3.4)
kick return average 23.4 18 +1 Patriots(30.9) Panthers(17.7)

punts return (against) *** 19.9 31 == Titans(3.9) Colts(25.4)
kick return (against) *** 24.0 T17 +5 Buccaneers(16.3) Dolphins(29.6)

field goals percentage 76.9% T21 +1 Dolphins(100.0%) Saints(42.9%)


(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)


Penalties

STAT SCORE RANK FIRST LAST
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total penalties / game *** 4.0 T3 +5 Seahawks(3.4) Card’s(8.4)
penalties yards / game *** 28.5 4 +2 Seahawks(22.3) Card’s(71.0)


opponents penalties / game 4.8 26 -6 Lions(8.3) Colts(3.2)
opp' penalties yards / game 33.7 30 -6 Panthers(66.7) Colts(24.7)


(*** indicates 1st is the lowest score / T = tied)

[DeuceOfClub]

For each team you accumulate the opponent’s records.
(If a team played another team twice you add their record twice)
Then subtract the games against the team in question.
Then you calculate the percentage value.

Example:
Denver opponents: Buf (2-4), Oak (2-4), Jac (4-2), Ind (6-0), SD (3-3), Pit (4-2).
Combined record: 21-15. / 0.583
Removing the games against Denver (3-3).
Combined record is 18-12.
Or 0.600.

Just for reference, you have the “non adjusted SoS” (just the total W/L of the opponents). This is the way the NFL calculate it for ranking purposes.



STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

Team OpW/L-adjusted non-adjusted (rank)
01 San Diego 21-12 0.636 24-15 0.615 (02)
02 Indianapolis 20-12 0.625 20-18 0.526 (14)
03 Buffalo 21-13 0.618 25-15 0.625 (01)
04 Denver 18-12 0.600 21-15 0.583 (05)
05 Chicago 22-15 0.595 26-18 0.591 (03)
06 Jacksonville 19-14 0.576 21-18 0.538 (13)
06 New Orleans 19-14 0.576 23-16 0.590 (04)
08 Tampa Bay 21-16 0.568 24-20 0.545 (11)
09 Green Bay 18-14 0.563 19-19 0.500 (17)
10 Minnesota 19-15 0.559 23-17 0.575 (06)
11 Philadelphia 18-15 0.545 22-17 0.564 (09)
11 Tennessee 18-15 0.545 20-19 0.513 (15)
13 Cincinnati 19-16 0.543 23-18 0.561 (10)
14 Washington 17-16 0.515 19-20 0.487 (20)
15 Houston 19-19 0.500 23-22 0.511 (16)
15 N.Y. Giants 19-19 0.500 21-24 0.467 (23)
15 St. Louis 20-20 0.500 27-20 0.574 (07)
18 Miami 19-20 0.487 26-20 0.565 (08)
19 Atlanta 18-19 0.486 24-20 0.545 (11)
20 Cleveland 16-17 0.485 19-20 0.487 (20)
21 Arizona 18-20 0.474 22-23 0.489 (18)
22 Detroit 15-17 0.469 17-21 0.447 (24)
22 Pittsburgh 15-17 0.469 17-21 0.447 (24)
24 San Francisco 16-19 0.457 20-21 0.488 (19)
25 Dallas 18-22 0.450 19-28 0.404 (28)
26 New England 17-21 0.447 17-28 0.378 (29)
27 Kansas City 16-21 0.432 19-25 0.432 (27)
28 N.Y. Jets 16-23 0.410 22-24 0.478 (22)
29 Oakland 13-19 0.406 17-21 0.447 (24)
30 Seattle 14-24 0.368 17-28 0.378 (29)
31 Carolina 11-24 0.314 13-28 0.317 (31)
32 Baltimore 10-28 0.263 13-32 0.289 (32)

[eddie mac]

3rd down conversions *** 49.3% 30 -4 Patriots(30.7%) Dolphins(52.9%)

That's the killer on D right there.

[Jason in LA]

The offensive stats still aren't producing the points. 5th in yards, 8rd in first downs, and 3rd in 3rd down conversions.

Turnovers and poor field position seem to be the problem. 23rd in turnovers, 22nd in interceptions, and 15th in fumbles. And they are dead last in starting field position. Turnovers plus a long field kills drives.

As for the defense, the passing defense has good looking stats because the run defense is so horrible. Teams aren't passing on the Broncos. The Broncos are first in opponents passing attempts, but 31st in opponents rushing attempts. The Steelers were the first team to really pass on the Broncos, and Ben looked great...when he wasn't throwing interceptions. 30th in completion percentage, 28th in ypa, and 17th in ypc. Being 2nd in yards is BS. The passing defense sucks too.

I don't know if the Broncos can do much with the defense this year, but on O, they need to stop turning the ball over so they can out score teams.

[DeuceOfClub]

Behind the numbers:

Offense:
Coming out of the best offensive game this season most stat will improve, but I want to point out two numbers that deserve a special look: Completion percentage (66.3%) and 3rd down conversion (50.7%). both are ridiculously high for a second year QB.
This season we see Brady and Manning floating at almost 75% Completion rate, which is insane, but anything over 65% is amazing.
As for 3rd downs, in last few years we were very steady at the middle-to-bottom of the NFL with about 35% (rank 15-22). We are now at the top 3 with over 50%. This number translate directly to the amount of yards we are gaining and hopefully will soon lead to more points scored.
On the other hand ‘someone’ need “explain” Jay the importance of ball protection. We’ve seen more than one ‘good’ QBs destroying their career by not protecting the ball. His two interceptions were inexcusable (especially the second one) and Marshall really bailed him out on the bad fumble. This game shouldn’t have gone to the last second.
Other than that, it’s good to see that with almost a completely new O-line the running game is still on par and the protection is more than adequate.


Defense:
If you missed Jason’s post, go back and read it. He is spot on, IMO.
The defense is bad. It’s easy to see how bad the run defense is, but a closer look shows how bad the pass defense is as well.
QB completing passes much too easily, and the only reason the yardage is so low, is because there is really no reason to pass against us. Go back to last Sunday game and remember how nonchalantly Big-Ben came back from two scores down at the end of the game.
We saw a big increase in blitzes last weekend, and my guess is that we will keep it for the remainder of the season. As a result we’ll face more and more screens and quick tosses. As for running play I expect the trend of 1 stop for no gain / 1 big play of 12+ yard to continue.
The X-factor (sorry) will be turnovers. If we can generate 2-3 a game will be in a good position in most of them.

And one more troubling number: the Steelers had 4 1st downs inside Denver 20 that resulted in 4 TDs!

It will be very interesting to watch the Packers game plan for Monday, as so far Green bay is leading the league in numbers of pass plays percentage. (Only 33% of their plays are run)


Special Team / penalties:
Kudos on big improvement from awful to average. Look at the net-punts number: we jumped 15 places to the top-10.
As for penalties, Shanahan teams are always at the top, but lack of penalties by our opponent is worrisome.


Miscellaneous and other random thoughts:

AFC WEST Strength of Schedule- big difference so far between the Chargers / Broncos and the Chiefs / Raiders. As it slowly evens out expect big changes in the ranking as well.

Ravens SoS- I cant remember ever seeing such a low number after 7 games outside of the NFC West. The Ravens 4-3 mediocre record was achieved against the worst competition by far. Based on that I can safely assume we will not see them in the playoff. (They still have to play the Steelers twice, Chargers, Patriots and Colts among others)
On the other hand the Colts 6-0 record was against the 2nd toughest schedule. That’s very impressive. (They already beat all 3 division opponents on the road!!!)

The Chiefs are bottom 5 at all running offense categories.

I’m not sure about that, but I think the Raiders broke the record last Sunday for consecutive defeats by division rivals, currently standing at 17. Hip-Hip… Hurray.

The Joey Harrington Curse: far worst than Madden or SI! Joey Harrington will not be denied. He will be the starting QB. Just ask Garcia, Culpepper, Vick or Leftwich.
GMs take a note: Do not pick Joey to be your back-up QB.

After 7 weeks we already saw 11 TDs on kickoff return, 2 more than the entire 2006 season. Two teams (Patriots, Jets) already scored twice.
The Seahawks Last Sunday broke a 5 years drought. Scoring a KRTD 5 years after their last one (2002 week 7).
Only 2 teams (Ravens, Buccaneers) are in worst drought than the Broncos, who didn’t score a KRTD since 1998 week 16. Click for complete list (http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showpost.php?p=1957758&postcount=136).

And finally, few weeks ago we learned that prior to the Lions game the Raiders started calling their fumble drill ‘Tatum Bell’. They might want to change it based on the fact that they are last on both sides of the field in fumbles.




And now for something completely different:
I’m missing 7 Topps 2007 NFL cards to complete my set. If you are in a similar position and have few extra in good shape, we might be able to help each other. PM me for more info…

[minibronco]

Good work, deuce.

[telluride]

Numbers are looking better in many categories all across the board, but there are still many reasons for concern.


Week 4 (http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=61561)
Week 5 (http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=61835)
Week 6 (http://orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=62078)


For comparison, if you’re interested, last years final stat can be found here: 2006 (http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=83387), 2005 (http://forums.denverbroncos.com/showthread.php?t=50418).

Feel free to suggest more categories if you think they can be helpful or other ideas for improvement.

At least we're trending upward now -- a welcome improvement. Now keep it up, guys!