Taco John
10-05-2007, 03:51 AM
October 4th, 2007 — 6:54 pm
Ron Paul Could Win Iowa
I’m somewhat surprised to be saying this, and it took me a while to come to this conclusion, but I think — given the right set of circumstances — Republican Rep. Ron Paul could win the Iowa Caucuses. I’m not going to say it’s likely, but it isn’t impossible.
Here’s why it could happen:
Huge fundraising: Rep. Paul’s third quarter fundraising was astonishing. If he spends it right (and so far his campaign has proven its ability to stretch every single dollar), he could have enough direct mail and paid media to look like just as “real” a candidate as any others in the eyes of Iowa Republicans.
Good organization: The Paul campaign recently announced that it had brought on veteran Iowa Republican Dr. Drew Ivers as its new Iowa chairman. Ivers has worked in Iowa GOP politics since the Reagan campaign, and he ran Iowa presidential campaigns for Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan. Asked what he was planning to do to change the Paul campaign in Iowa, Ivers smartly said (http://www.iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1203), “the main difference between our strategies is that the old Iowa campaign chair] used a traditional media campaign, whereas I intend to use more of a grass-roots, on-the-ground strategy.” That’s how you win the Iowa Caucuses.
Splintered electorate: Because the evangelicals who dominate the Republican caucuses seem to be splitting between a number of different candidates, Ron Paul’s — ahem — “uniqueness” could serve him quite well. In particular, Paul is the only Republican candidate with a strong anti-war message, and survey results show that half of likely Republican caucus goers agree with him (http://cmondisplay.com/2007/08/23/51-of-republican-caucus-goers-support-iraq-withdrawal-within-six-months/). With a field this large, Paul may only need support of half of the anti-war Republicans — which would represent 25% of the total electorate — to win a plurality of delegates.
Low expectations: The media will not expect Rep. Paul to place in the Iowa Caucuses, to say nothing of whether they think he can win. The three points listed above are intended to demonstrate that he could come in first here with some luck and elbow grease, but it is important to remember that a second or third place finish would be enough to call it a “win.” Just by placing, Ron Paul would get the Iowa bump.
http://cmondisplay.com/2007/10/04/ron-paul-could-win-iowa/
Ron Paul Could Win Iowa
I’m somewhat surprised to be saying this, and it took me a while to come to this conclusion, but I think — given the right set of circumstances — Republican Rep. Ron Paul could win the Iowa Caucuses. I’m not going to say it’s likely, but it isn’t impossible.
Here’s why it could happen:
Huge fundraising: Rep. Paul’s third quarter fundraising was astonishing. If he spends it right (and so far his campaign has proven its ability to stretch every single dollar), he could have enough direct mail and paid media to look like just as “real” a candidate as any others in the eyes of Iowa Republicans.
Good organization: The Paul campaign recently announced that it had brought on veteran Iowa Republican Dr. Drew Ivers as its new Iowa chairman. Ivers has worked in Iowa GOP politics since the Reagan campaign, and he ran Iowa presidential campaigns for Pat Robertson and Pat Buchanan. Asked what he was planning to do to change the Paul campaign in Iowa, Ivers smartly said (http://www.iowaindependent.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=1203), “the main difference between our strategies is that the old Iowa campaign chair] used a traditional media campaign, whereas I intend to use more of a grass-roots, on-the-ground strategy.” That’s how you win the Iowa Caucuses.
Splintered electorate: Because the evangelicals who dominate the Republican caucuses seem to be splitting between a number of different candidates, Ron Paul’s — ahem — “uniqueness” could serve him quite well. In particular, Paul is the only Republican candidate with a strong anti-war message, and survey results show that half of likely Republican caucus goers agree with him (http://cmondisplay.com/2007/08/23/51-of-republican-caucus-goers-support-iraq-withdrawal-within-six-months/). With a field this large, Paul may only need support of half of the anti-war Republicans — which would represent 25% of the total electorate — to win a plurality of delegates.
Low expectations: The media will not expect Rep. Paul to place in the Iowa Caucuses, to say nothing of whether they think he can win. The three points listed above are intended to demonstrate that he could come in first here with some luck and elbow grease, but it is important to remember that a second or third place finish would be enough to call it a “win.” Just by placing, Ron Paul would get the Iowa bump.
http://cmondisplay.com/2007/10/04/ron-paul-could-win-iowa/