KC Joyner's new 2007 Scientific Football

[Mediator12]

Just got the complete book from Joyner. Here are some eye opening stats:

1. John Lynch was the highest rated cover safety in the NFL. Period. He had only 5 of 25 passes completed in his direct coverage or direct coverage assist. Those five passes were for 2.8 yards per attempt. That means this HUGE liability in coverage surrendered 69 passing yards ALL SEASON LONG!

The John Lynch is a liability in coverage MYTH is completely disspelled.

2. Nick Ferguson was the Number 3 coverage SS in the NFL. He surrendered 4 completions against 17 attempts in those games he played. He gave up a meager 72 yards for a 4.2 yards per attempt average.

So much for needing a "Cover Safety" ;D

3. Champ Bailey was thrown on 63 times all year and gave up a whopping 4.7 YPA for the absolute Best in the NFL. He only allowed 43% of passes to be completed on him, including zero Bombs of 40+. He was unreal against medium, deep, and Bomb levels giving up just 2.9 YPA. The only place teams had any success at all against him was underneath in short throws.

4. Dre Bly was not as good in 2006 as he was in 2005. Most of that is attached to playing a cover two scheme that never fit his talents. His numbers with man press coverage were twice as good as his off zone numbers.

5. Cutler was not the savior last year, but he showed flashes of brilliance. His learning curve was steep and his bad decisions were much more pronounced than Plummer down the stretch. His passing numbers were slightly better than Plummer's on the surface due to the higher TD/INT ratio, but his YPA was not. In fact, as poorly as Jake played his numbers were better in most cases including bad decisions. That thoroughly surprised me! I guess I just gave Jay a lot more slack playing his first 5 NFL games than Plummer in his ninth season in the league.

6. Javon Walker was better than advertised, even though his numbers with Plummer were much better than with Jay. He was top 15 in YPA, success %, and his SYPA was top 20.

7. No other WR except a declining Rod Smith qualified from DEN last year. This is DEN's most tumultous position. They have guys who can play, but can they regain their health and Contribute? That is the HUGE question on offense. Will the #2 and #3 WR's allow Henry to run with only seven in the box, or will teams continue to stack 8 or 9 to stop the run?

8. TE's were just beneath qualifying as well. Graham also did not qualify last year.

This years edition was completely focused on the passing game as last years was focused on the running game. So, if you ask questions please refrain from asking about Henry's numbers from last year as they are not in this edition.

[vancejohnson82]

I'm not buying it

I saw Lynch get killed on double moves by Reggie Wayne last season twice....darrent had underneath and Lynch had over the top....who do those catches go against

now that is just off the top of my head in ONE game

as a team last year against the pass we were 24th in completions against and 20th in yards against.....where were all the passes being completed than

KC Joyner just stated that Ferguson, Lynch and Bailey were tops...so almost EVERY pass was against Darrent...I'd be interested to see how he does his stat work

[2KBack]

as a team last year against the pass we were 24th in completions against and 20th in yards against.....where were all the passes being completed than

in that 10 yard freebie zone coyer gave all the WR's

[vancejohnson82]

so according to Joyner, who do those completions go against???

because if he is just judging man to man coverage statistics, of course Lynch would have a high efficiency because he never is put in that kind of coverage

[Rock Chalk]

so according to Joyner, who do those completions go against???

because if he is just judging man to man coverage statistics, of course Lynch would have a high efficiency because he never is put in that kind of coverage

Lets see:

TEs who Sam Brandon and later Foxworth and Cox generally covered.

The passes to Darrent's side of the field.

The passes to the 3rd WRs who Foxworth and/or Paymah were assigned to.

Do you have a short memory or something? Because nearly all of the passing yards completed against us last year were short to medium distance away from the safeties and Champ.

[Mediator12]

I'm not buying it

I saw Lynch get killed on double moves by Reggie Wayne last season twice....darrent had underneath and Lynch had over the top....who do those catches go against

now that is just off the top of my head in ONE game

as a team last year against the pass we were 24th in completions against and 20th in yards against.....where were all the passes being completed than

KC Joyner just stated that Ferguson, Lynch and Bailey were tops...so almost EVERY pass was against Darrent...I'd be interested to see how he does his stat work


So, what does that tell you? That teams threw at Darrent, Foxworth in the Nickel and SS, Cox, and Underneath by design. Teams were throwing in front of the defense and not able to complete deep and Bombs against them. They were mediocre in medium routes, and gave up 4 of 5 underneath.

As for your assesment of Lynch that is absolutely horrible. You are basing your opinion of lynch on 2 or 3 passes from over 600 passing plays of material. How the heck do you form an opinion on coverage from that small of a sample, because you were looking for the "liability in coverage" that every worthless broadcaster and analyst was projecting on to Lynch without doing their homework.

By comparison, Ed reed Was beaten deep 6 times last year for receptions and had 5 missed completions that were poorly thrown where he was beat. Everyone dismisses this poor performance becuase Ed Reed is a "Cover Safety". BS. He gambles and screws up almost more than any other FS in the league. He surrenders just as many big plays as he makes. The problem is people believe the hype of his coverage skills and Ballhawking and neglect the fact he was beaten deep more than any other FS that started last year.

Joyner had almost identical numbers in his assessments of the coverages that I did for DEN last year. Meaning the variance was around 5% at the most. Having two different independent sources that say the exact same thing I said makes me believe this is a fairly accurate assesment.

Now, the real reason the coverages were poor underneath ws that the LB's and Safeties had to drop deeper in their zones by 3 to 5 yards based on the extra time QB's had to throw the ball. The longer they hold the ball, the deeper the zones have to drop to the routes.

[cmhargrove]

I'm not buying it

I saw Lynch get killed on double moves by Reggie Wayne last season twice....darrent had underneath and Lynch had over the top....who do those catches go against

now that is just off the top of my head in ONE game

as a team last year against the pass we were 24th in completions against and 20th in yards against.....where were all the passes being completed than

KC Joyner just stated that Ferguson, Lynch and Bailey were tops...so almost EVERY pass was against Darrent...I'd be interested to see how he does his stat work

What safety can really cover Reggie Wayne when Peyton has the time to throw? Even Champ will get burned if Peyton consistently has 6 seconds to dissect a defense.

[Steve Prefontaine]

I'm not buying it

I saw Lynch get killed on double moves by Reggie Wayne last season twice....darrent had underneath and Lynch had over the top....who do those catches go against

now that is just off the top of my head in ONE game

as a team last year against the pass we were 24th in completions against and 20th in yards against.....where were all the passes being completed than

KC Joyner just stated that Ferguson, Lynch and Bailey were tops...so almost EVERY pass was against Darrent...I'd be interested to see how he does his stat work

Here is a quote from his website:

I do this by reviewing game tapes. I record every NFL game and break it down with my unique game-tape scouting system. It is a system similar to ones used by NFL scouts and provides a tremendously detailed analysis of the passing game. I take the breakdowns from this analysis and make a comprehensive review of every player's performance in the passing game, both offensive and defensive.

I've been blasted before for saying this, but I really like what KC Joyner is doing. I understand that people are very skeptical of him. Either they don't believe that he actually does what he says he does, or they think his methods are flawed, or they just have a problem when their perceptions of a player aren't backed up by Joyner's metrics. For example, some people pitch a fit when Joyner considers Ed Reed overrated, even though his coverage metrics were abysmal last year.

Some also think that Lynch must be horrible in coverage because he is older and has lost a step. You give the example of Lynch getting burned on a double move by Wayne. If Joyner deemed that Wayne was Lynch's coverage responsibility on that play, then that reception counts against him. After all, Joyner didn't say that Lynch didn't let up a reception all year. This is where you have to think outside the numbers. Of course Lynch can't cover Reggie Wayne 1 on 1, but Joyer's analysis reflects that Lynch knows his responsibilities in coverage and is rarely out of position.

Do I think his stats are 100% accurate? No. But I applaud what he is trying to accomplish and appreciate the alternative approach in evaluating a player's performance.

[Mediator12]

Vance,

Lynch never got burned on any double moves by Wayne last year either. Both those plays were Darrent screwing up coverage once in Cover three and once in Cover one man.

It is difficult to see coverages on any given play, but on both of those plays they gave multiple TV angles that easily revealed the coverages.

The game where Lynch got beat deep twice where it was his responsibility and their were missed passes was CIN. Chad Johnson and TJ whoseyourmama both had him beat against blitzes that were picked up and gave Carson Palmer all day to throw deep.

Lynch is not perfect. But he is very well misrepresented by poorly prepared TV commentators and analysts who are afraid to counter the Hype or negative assertions.

[vancejohnson82]

Mediator,

First of all, I typed up a response in about 5 minutes thinking about the last two seasons...so my "horrible" assessment has some merit....obviously, you are an expert and i have no right being in this conversation but I'll "try" and stay up with your level of knowledge

John Lynch is not a coverage safety and the defense has to be designed around that....the reason Darrent got toasted so many times last night is because the safeties were play deep zones and the corners were pretty much left on islands....how is lynch going to be beaten deep if his only responsibility is to not let anyone get behind him???

did you ever think that our zone scheme last year and the year before just so happened to be put in place because of the personnel we had??? or was Coyer just light years behind your vast wealth of football knowledge....the scheme was put in place, partly because of our personnel

the reason Ed Reed gets beat over the top at times is because the Ravens blitz like maniacs....this puts him one on one with a slot or even a wideout and of course thats a tough matchup...but it also pays off when you end up getting 5-6 sacks a game

so perhaps Ferguson and Lynch weren't getting beat but the defense wasn't making plays because we were CONCERNED ABOUT BEING BEAT OVER THE TOP....to prevent this Coyer ran a very timid defense

I'm not saying Lynch isn't the guy we need, because we do need him and he is our safety this year...but lets not say he is a top cover guy...that's ridiculous

in my opinion at least....which really doesnt matter

[Mediator12]

Mediator,

First of all, I typed up a response in about 5 minutes thinking about the last two seasons...so my "horrible" assessment has some merit....obviously, you are an expert and i have no right being in this conversation but I'll "try" and stay up with your level of knowledge

John Lynch is not a coverage safety and the defense has to be designed around that....the reason Darrent got toasted so many times last night is because the safeties were play deep zones and the corners were pretty much left on islands....how is lynch going to be beaten deep if his only responsibility is to not let anyone get behind him???

did you ever think that our zone scheme last year and the year before just so happened to be put in place because of the personnel we had??? or was Coyer just light years behind your vast wealth of football knowledge....the scheme was put in place, partly because of our personnel

the reason Ed Reed gets beat over the top at times is because the Ravens blitz like maniacs....this puts him one on one with a slot or even a wideout and of course thats a tough matchup...but it also pays off when you end up getting 5-6 sacks a game

so perhaps Ferguson and Lynch weren't getting beat but the defense wasn't making plays because we were CONCERNED ABOUT BEING BEAT OVER THE TOP....to prevent this Coyer ran a very timid defense

I'm not saying Lynch isn't the guy we need, because we do need him and he is our safety this year...but lets not say he is a top cover guy...that's ridiculous

in my opinion at least....which really doesnt matter

1. Your assesment is based on emotion and bias for several plays you thought you saw. How can you really ask anyone to believe you based on 2 plays out of 600? The fact that you are trying to justify your position without taking into account the actual performance just says you have made up your mind without considering the facts and actual performance. Do you even know what the coverages where before you assigned blame to Lynch in your examples?

2. Every DC places their players in a position to succeed. So, I am really trying to see what your point is about the coverage differences between Reed and Lynch. Are you saying Coyer played his FS better than Ryan did in BAL since Reed got beaten like a Red headed Stepchild in coverage? you know almost every Interception he got was in Robber coverage underneath when the Blitzes were on right? He had one INT in direct coverage or deep assist.

3. DEN did run a very conservative ZONE base scheme last year based on the fact the DL could not do any part of the game well. They were below average in the running game and were second worst in sack percentage per throw. So, you pick your poison. In 2005, he played cover zero the second half of the year to cover for the poor performance of the DL and get pressurte on the QB. And, it worked until they imploded dropping 5 INT's against PIT in the AFCC Game. In 2006, they had to change scheme's yet again because teams had adjusted to the cover zero.

4. Trying to be sarcastic and condescending at the same time is counterproductive to open discussion. I labeled your assesment horrible since it was completely based on your viewpoint of just two plays you thought you remembered where you assigned blame where it was not there. It is not representative of actual performance, it is an overgeneralization based on 2 plays. It is nothing personal, I think you bring good discussion to the board.

I just want people to see that perception is not the same as performance. Lynch had 4 more passes thrown at him than Ed Reed. He allowed 8 yards less per attempt than Reed, Never was beat deep in direct or assist coverage, and did not have the most talented front seven in the league forcing QB's to throw a full second early like BAL did to give Reed gimme INT's. I ask you this, How good would Ed Reed have been in CLE last year? That is why he is overrated, he plays in the perfect system to be a playmaker from FS.

Lynch also played in a system that accentuated his strengths. However, he did not Blitz or remain in deep coverage as much as Reed. He was used properly in Robber and other Cover three coverages. He has never been a liability in DEN's coverages and Ferguson has not either. This is despite everyone crying for "Cover safeties" on this board. That is the point of this discussion for me. The secondary, including the safeties, are the greatest strength on the whole team. The LB's and DL are the ones who need to perform better than lasdt year in order for the defense to take the next step.

[vancejohnson82]

Ok, granted my post was a bit over the top on the sarcasm...for that i apologize...what i will not apologize for is my position on this topic

the point i was making about Reed was that the Ravens coaching staff blitzes their linebackers constantly because they trust their DBs and safeties to stay with their men more than they get beat....their D-line is definitely better than ours but they are also getting the gift of help coming from behind them....something we coudl not afford to do.....basically they give him a great deal of responsibility because he has to cover underneath and over the top

Denver on teh other hand, is forced to rush 4 or 5 while dropping people back in loose zones...LBs underneath, safeties over the top, corners in a man/zone mix...this puts Lynch or Ferguson with the simple task of rolling to the hlep side and not getting beat over the top...and then when the catch happens in between Darrent and Lynch, the fault goes to Darrent because Lynch had "over the top" responsibility

ok, another example i can remember off the top of my head....Chargers at Denver...they spread 4 wide, then motion LT out to the right....leaving Lynch one on one (obvious mismatch)....he basically runs untouched into the endzone right past Lynch....that was the Chargers coaching staff saying, we know you run only a certain amount of man coverage schemes and when we recognize one of them we are going to abuse Lynch or Ferguson...they did the same thing with Gates a few times too

the Bengals, as you alluded to, were also spreading the field and running a few guys deep because they had the roster to do so

the Colts realizing that Lynch would be looking over the top and Darrent was on wayne did two things....they ran double moves and completed the pass behind darrent but in front of lynch and they ran skinny posts behind the linebackers, in front of lynch and ferguson....once they got darrent to start following the slants or posts, they would make an outside move work for them....unfair to put our corner, opposite of bailey in that position

i'm not sure if i'm making sense here but i'll sum it up with this

Lynch has a majorly, minor responsibility in our scheme (at least last year)...it was to not get beat over the top....but that is why darrent looked so bad sometimes....all the time in the world, because of no blitzing and leaving a B- (he would have been a B+ this year) corner in one on one coverage with 17 yards worth of route to cover is not fair

then again, i played corner so i am partial

[TheReverend]

This was a fun read. Lynch gets a bad rep for being old and white in coverage. That being said, he's definitely lucky that ball was overthrown in the Cinci game or thats an easy bomb completion against him.

Bleh, if you don't understand the coverages watch the safeties. Cover1vsCover3 will both have a safety playing deep, but cover1 will usually have a blitzer while cover3 has a robber spying on the QB. Corners man up in cover 1, and take a deep third in cover 3 but can be confusing to watch because they'll usually be as deep as the deepest man, but with the player in/around their zone.

[vancejohnson82]

for the record as well.....i was a big fan of drafting Ko Simpson last year because i thought we could use a "playmaking" safety alongside Lynch so we coudl move him up towards the box more where he is extremely effective

not that I'm hating on the Cutler pick (at all in fact, i love Jay) but i think we are missing out on a complementary playmaker (maybe got it in Bly??) alongside Champ

we will see this year....i think there will be less 3rd down frustration this year but more big plays against the D

[Willynowei]

I'm not buying it

I saw Lynch get killed on double moves by Reggie Wayne last season twice....darrent had underneath and Lynch had over the top....who do those catches go against

now that is just off the top of my head in ONE game

as a team last year against the pass we were 24th in completions against and 20th in yards against.....where were all the passes being completed than

KC Joyner just stated that Ferguson, Lynch and Bailey were tops...so almost EVERY pass was against Darrent...I'd be interested to see how he does his stat work

Its based on Yards per attempt. You're going to get completions and yards if you try enough times.

Denver's defense did not suffer from the passing attack of many teams last year with the exception of the Colts.

San Diego ran all over us, so did the 49ers. Our coverage for most of the year was good. In fact, Darrent Williams was good in coverage as well. His YPA was not much higher than Champ's and infact, he did not get thrown at much more than champ did.

The Indy game though, is most important. Because they are the standard we are measured against, untill our defense can consistently give them trouble, we won't get to sniff the lombardi.

[Willynowei]

Mediator,

First of all, I typed up a response in about 5 minutes thinking about the last two seasons...so my "horrible" assessment has some merit....obviously, you are an expert and i have no right being in this conversation but I'll "try" and stay up with your level of knowledge

John Lynch is not a coverage safety and the defense has to be designed around that....the reason Darrent got toasted so many times last night is because the safeties were play deep zones and the corners were pretty much left on islands....how is lynch going to be beaten deep if his only responsibility is to not let anyone get behind him???

did you ever think that our zone scheme last year and the year before just so happened to be put in place because of the personnel we had??? or was Coyer just light years behind your vast wealth of football knowledge....the scheme was put in place, partly because of our personnel

the reason Ed Reed gets beat over the top at times is because the Ravens blitz like maniacs....this puts him one on one with a slot or even a wideout and of course thats a tough matchup...but it also pays off when you end up getting 5-6 sacks a game

so perhaps Ferguson and Lynch weren't getting beat but the defense wasn't making plays because we were CONCERNED ABOUT BEING BEAT OVER THE TOP....to prevent this Coyer ran a very timid defense

I'm not saying Lynch isn't the guy we need, because we do need him and he is our safety this year...but lets not say he is a top cover guy...that's ridiculous

in my opinion at least....which really doesnt matter

The Ravens actually don't blitz like Maniacs. In fact, we blitzed a heck of a lot more 2 seasons ago than the Ravens ever did.

Our scheme was put in place last year b/c teams started using max protect the previous season, which killed our all out blitzes, which were necessary for pressure to begin with.

Coyer installed heavy stunts and loops in the D-line schemes which had our ends constantly vacate their normal gap assignments. Which made it so easy for San Diego to blast Lorenzo Neil at our linebackers and have LT make a fool out of fergy every down.

[vancejohnson82]

two seasons ago in Denver was ridiculous....like a big game of Red Rover every time the ball was snapped

[Willynowei]

Ok, granted my post was a bit over the top on the sarcasm...for that i apologize...what i will not apologize for is my position on this topic

the point i was making about Reed was that the Ravens coaching staff blitzes their linebackers constantly because they trust their DBs and safeties to stay with their men more than they get beat....their D-line is definitely better than ours but they are also getting the gift of help coming from behind them....something we coudl not afford to do.....basically they give him a great deal of responsibility because he has to cover underneath and over the top

Denver on teh other hand, is forced to rush 4 or 5 while dropping people back in loose zones...LBs underneath, safeties over the top, corners in a man/zone mix...this puts Lynch or Ferguson with the simple task of rolling to the hlep side and not getting beat over the top...and then when the catch happens in between Darrent and Lynch, the fault goes to Darrent because Lynch had "over the top" responsibility

ok, another example i can remember off the top of my head....Chargers at Denver...they spread 4 wide, then motion LT out to the right....leaving Lynch one on one (obvious mismatch)....he basically runs untouched into the endzone right past Lynch....that was the Chargers coaching staff saying, we know you run only a certain amount of man coverage schemes and when we recognize one of them we are going to abuse Lynch or Ferguson...they did the same thing with Gates a few times too

the Bengals, as you alluded to, were also spreading the field and running a few guys deep because they had the roster to do so

the Colts realizing that Lynch would be looking over the top and Darrent was on wayne did two things....they ran double moves and completed the pass behind darrent but in front of lynch and they ran skinny posts behind the linebackers, in front of lynch and ferguson....once they got darrent to start following the slants or posts, they would make an outside move work for them....unfair to put our corner, opposite of bailey in that position

i'm not sure if i'm making sense here but i'll sum it up with this

Lynch has a majorly, minor responsibility in our scheme (at least last year)...it was to not get beat over the top....but that is why darrent looked so bad sometimes....all the time in the world, because of no blitzing and leaving a B- (he would have been a B+ this year) corner in one on one coverage with 17 yards worth of route to cover is not fair

then again, i played corner so i am partial

In the Play you remember, Lynch was not assigned to LT, no one was. It was a stunt play with one of our D-ends I think it was Lang who had the flat responsibility. So yes, we had a D-end on LT. Theres Youtube vids you can see a Denver Dend chasing the guy.

We got beat by Indy in our Cover 2, but Fergy plays on top of Darrent on the weakside. Lynch is on the strong side with Champ, usually. So I'm not sure why Lynch is being painted as the scape goat here, not to mention New England got lit up by the same Colts offense. Again, the Colts are an offense you can only deal with using pressure. I think we should give our Coverage guys a break there.

Lynch played like anyother Safey in a Cover 2, 3 or 1 assignment. In a Cover 2, the Safety has deep responsibility. Ed Reed likes to jump intermediate routes, vacating his deep spot. If you like watching Cinci vs. Baltimore games, you'll see a lot of Chad Johnson burning both Ed Reed and McAllister on a double move b/c Reed loves to jump the deep out.

I'm not here to tell you that Lynch is the best thing since sliced bread, but Ed Reed has been overated for a long time, and yes I'm with mediator in that I never knew why Lynch was called such a liability in coverage other than the fact that he's not very fast, though he was never fast to begin with.

[epicSocialism4tw]

1. John Lynch was the highest rated cover safety in the NFL. Period. He had only 5 of 25 passes completed in his direct coverage or direct coverage assist. Those five passes were for 2.8 yards per attempt. That means this HUGE liability in coverage surrendered 69 passing yards ALL SEASON LONG!
The John Lynch is a liability in coverage MYTH is completely disspelled.


I think that playing with Champ Bailey helps quite a bit, but in reality, John Lynch has been an absolute rock for this defense for the past two seasons. We have even seen him take over games (see SD).

I have tried to no avail to prop up Lynch here for Bronco fans, but it seems to be a situation where most of them have made up their minds already about him. He came in as an afterthought and most Bronco fans view him as such. I think that in the minds of Bronco fans that his best years are behind him, and he is a Buc forever. He's been here for three seasons, and is entering his fourth. He's a Bronco now, and has been for some time.

Lynch is still a great player.

He deserves every accolade that he receives.

[vancejohnson82]

i dont think he lacks the ability or the athleticism to still be great...and i appreciate him as a Broncos and respect his spot on our team...he IS VERY IMPORTANT....however, i think his rank as the #1 coverage safety in the NFL last year does open the door for some discussion about Joyner's evaluation process...no?

also, the talks for Wesley have really slowed down......good

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_6569093

[Willynowei]

Lynch is good, he's consistent, smart and efficient. He's a hall of fame player for those three reasons plus his toughness.

There is an on going trend in the NFL to convert corners to safeties, and the success of Eugene Wilson and Bob Sanders will keep that going. Range is considered very valuable at that position now.

But I think when Rodney Harrison went down for the Pats, and they had Eugene take over secondary coverage calls, it began to show that Safety is not all about athleticism. Wilson was easily the better playmaker of the two, but the Pats Coverage hurt bad w/o Rodney. And Rodney was both slow and gambled alot. He was just damn good though.

Sometimes you can't substitute good football instincts and experience with athleticism.

[Mediator12]

Ok, granted my post was a bit over the top on the sarcasm...for that i apologize...what i will not apologize for is my position on this topic

the point i was making about Reed was that the Ravens coaching staff blitzes their linebackers constantly because they trust their DBs and safeties to stay with their men more than they get beat....their D-line is definitely better than ours but they are also getting the gift of help coming from behind them....something we coudl not afford to do.....basically they give him a great deal of responsibility because he has to cover underneath and over the top

Denver on teh other hand, is forced to rush 4 or 5 while dropping people back in loose zones...LBs underneath, safeties over the top, corners in a man/zone mix...this puts Lynch or Ferguson with the simple task of rolling to the hlep side and not getting beat over the top...and then when the catch happens in between Darrent and Lynch, the fault goes to Darrent because Lynch had "over the top" responsibility

ok, another example i can remember off the top of my head....Chargers at Denver...they spread 4 wide, then motion LT out to the right....leaving Lynch one on one (obvious mismatch)....he basically runs untouched into the endzone right past Lynch....that was the Chargers coaching staff saying, we know you run only a certain amount of man coverage schemes and when we recognize one of them we are going to abuse Lynch or Ferguson...they did the same thing with Gates a few times too

the Bengals, as you alluded to, were also spreading the field and running a few guys deep because they had the roster to do so

the Colts realizing that Lynch would be looking over the top and Darrent was on wayne did two things....they ran double moves and completed the pass behind darrent but in front of lynch and they ran skinny posts behind the linebackers, in front of lynch and ferguson....once they got darrent to start following the slants or posts, they would make an outside move work for them....unfair to put our corner, opposite of bailey in that position

i'm not sure if i'm making sense here but i'll sum it up with this

Lynch has a majorly, minor responsibility in our scheme (at least last year)...it was to not get beat over the top....but that is why darrent looked so bad sometimes....all the time in the world, because of no blitzing and leaving a B- (he would have been a B+ this year) corner in one on one coverage with 17 yards worth of route to cover is not fair

then again, i played corner so i am partial

Thanks for continuing the discussion.

1. Players can only execute their assigned duties. Reed was used differently than Lynch because BAL plays the most variant defensive scheme in the NFL. They play every single front, every single coverage, and every single blitz. They had three players that could line up in mulitple positions in Adalius Thomas, Terrell Suggs, and Bart Scott. All three played up or down in the pass rush. This is the single most confusing DEF in the NFL and they easily applied the most pressure on the QB every single snap. DEN used a simple scheme that tried to minimize errors as the Talent up front was nowhere near adequate to rush the passer or play the run sucessfully. Ed reed never had to stand up to an inconsistent pass rush in pass defense, so he routinely gambles to make a big play. Problem is, he surrendered just as many as he made.

2. Not many Deep In's, deep seam, Skinny posts, pure posts or deep crossing patterns were completed against DEN. Most of the medium routes were Deep outs, Comebacks, Stop go's and post corners, and fades to the weak side CB. If you played CB, you know that you play those routes with outside leverage to take them away with Safety help over the top. Despite Knowing this, the #2 CB's routinely played man up coverage and failed to display the proper leverage to take away those patterns.

3. BAL blitzed 13th in the NFL last year. 12 teams blitzed more frequently than them and they only averaged 11% blitzing. In contrast, KC blitzed 12.8% of the time.

4. The Chargers game that play was an overload Zone blitz to the left side. In that responsibility, Ekuban was supposed to Level the RB at the LOS and he dropped 7 yards off at the snap. After the game, he was quoted as not liking the playcall and therefore missing his assignment as he was afraid of LT. It only takes one guy to make a playcall look awful and it was Ekuban not wanting to look bad that allowed a gimme TD to put SD back in that game.

Personally, I love that people question that playcall at that point in the game. Because most people say that Coyer never blitzed or was aggressive with the game on the line. The problem was that DEN had the lowest blitz success rate in the NFL. Now, do you bring the Blitz as a DC when you know the Pressure is not going to get there and you are going to leave the secondary exposed? Yeah, because the fans expect it ;D No, you do it to keep them honest in their protections and alleviate some double teams on every play. Did it backfire? Yeah, because Ekuban did not want to get schooled and did not even try to do his assignment.

[Rock Chalk]

The problem on that play Ekuban chumped on Mediator, is that he shouldnt have been assigned to level LT at the LOS in the first place. LT is an atypical running back and you need to have a faster, more athletic guy trying to make stops against him.

Ekuban is a serviceable enough DE, but in space, I dont want him trying to level a RB of LTs caliber without some freakin help.

It WAS a stupid playcall.

[listopencil]

Now, the real reason the coverages were poor underneath ws that the LB's and Safeties had to drop deeper in their zones by 3 to 5 yards based on the extra time QB's had to throw the ball. The longer they hold the ball, the deeper the zones have to drop to the routes.

QFT.

[Raider Bill]

Hey Mediator, could you give a brief rundown of the Raiders secondary if you get a chance.?

[Mediator12]

Hey Mediator, could you give a brief rundown of the Raiders secondary if you get a chance.?

Absolutely.

1. Namdi was very good last year with a 6.9 YPA and 54% success% , but he was horrible over the top. In fact, it did not matter what route he was covering a post, go, or corner he was just not solid in his deep coverages. The fact that he had all eight of his career interceptions in one season was telling that he is making excellent progress in route recognition to match his physical skills.

2. Fabian Washington was solid even though teams threw at him a little more than Namdi. His YPA was 7.1 and his S% was 46%. He just failed to make teams pay for throwing at him more than Namdi.

3. Schweigert had overall good metrics with 5.8 YPA and 58% Srate. Again, he was most susceptible over the top in direct assist coverages.

4. Huff was a rookie and played like one as a SS. His YPA was a solid 6.7, but he was only 40% succesful in coverage. He was hot and cold and was best used as a nickle CB instead of SS.

5. Donovin Darius was pretty poor in coverage ranking 27th for SS with 9.1 YPA. He had a fairly succesful Coverage rate of 61%, but he benefitted Highly from some missed passes where he was beaten but the play was not completed. Of course, he is a monster in run support but the SS has to play better in coverage for the passing game Def to remain successful.

That is all he had bill ;D

[Darkdoc]

I gotta say, this is one heck of a great thread to read - now THIS is why I like the Mane so much.

Thanks, gentlemen - great stuff, really.

[vancejohnson82]

Just to give a little more insight (at least from a team statistical standpoint)....Denver gave up 81 of 221 first downs on third last year which is roughly 37%...which is about what the average was....i found that interesting because it felt like the defense couldn't get off the field

however, the defense ranked in the bottom fourth of the league when it came to percentage of passes completed against (60.7)....most of the best defenses had a percentage of around 56 or so....

so, once again, i think it was a bit of a scheme miscalculation because it seemed like our staff was willing to give up shorter intermediate routes and wait for a stop against the shorter field, or force a turnover...it worked sometimes (see Pittsburgh game) but other times, against quarterbacks that were on their game the defense looked stupid

anyone think it could be because of the smaller linebackers we've been sporting? they get gobbled up on blitzes against those big O-lineman

oh and those two stats i mentioned....the Colts finished last in 3rd down stops (efficiency wise) and second to last against percentage of passes completed....so maybe the stats dont really matter if we can put up 28 points a game or so (nod to Cutler)

[Mediator12]

Last year was the worst third down % they have had since 2000. They had been 3rd, 3rd, 13th, and 14th last year under Coyer.

Now, look at this correlation:

2003 3rd in 3rd down % with 29.5% and 2cd in total FD per game with 15.1.

2004 3rd in 3rd down % with 31.1 and first in FD/G with 14.7

2005 13th in 3rd down % with 36.7 and 16th with 18.4 FD/G

2006 14th in 3rd down % with 36.7 and 13th with 18.2 FD/G


What happened to the defense from 2004 to 2005 ??? Browncos. The guys who are being replaced ASAP by Bates on the DL.

[vancejohnson82]

i've got two names that pretty much line up with those numbers

Reggie Hayward (gone 2005) and Trevor Pryce (injured 2005, gone 2006)

granted we boosted the secondary talent but forgot about the big guys up front....i agreed when we let go of Pryce that his contract was too steep to give him that kind of money for the production WE THOUGHT he was going to have but he proved the front office wrong and proved himself invaluable

another problem i have with Joyner's scientific approach is that it doesnt take into accont things like lack of a pass rush....surely our D-backs numbers are skewed a thousand ways from Sunday the way our secondary has to play coverages

or do i just not understand his formulas and studies?

[Raider Bill]

How much is Joyners book? I may pick that up.

[Mediator12]

i've got two names that pretty much line up with those numbers

Reggie Hayward (gone 2005) and Trevor Pryce (injured 2005, gone 2006)

granted we boosted the secondary talent but forgot about the big guys up front....i agreed when we let go of Pryce that his contract was too steep to give him that kind of money for the production WE THOUGHT he was going to have but he proved the front office wrong and proved himself invaluable

another problem i have with Joyner's scientific approach is that it doesnt take into accont things like lack of a pass rush....surely our D-backs numbers are skewed a thousand ways from Sunday the way our secondary has to play coverages

or do i just not understand his formulas and studies?

Actually, our secondary racked up those impressive numbers despite the PATHETIC pass rush. That is what is amazing. Champ could have just been a very good CB last year with the lack of pressure, yet he had his best stats as a pro. Lynch and Ferguson could have had Horrible Numbers with that pass rush, yet they were number 1 and Number three in thr NFL at their respective coverage positions.

As for Pryce, see the ed reed commentary. Pryce was an unbelievable supporting player in that defense where OC's could not gameplan for him as they never knew where he was coming from. He played both Ends and got 9 of his 12.5 sacks form the DT spot where Ngata and Kelly Gregg were usually rushing the passer. The confusion and sheer talent level in their front seven made Pryce a probowl level player again, even though he was the fifth best player on that defense.

Hayward is another guy I wish DEN would have kept in retrospect. I was wrong in not wanting to pay above average money to him when he left. His contract is peanuts compared to say a Dwayne White Contract in DET and White was a part time DE for TB last year.

[Mediator12]

How much is Joyners book? I may pick that up.

I bought his full package this year so I can not recall. It lists for 29.95 I think, but he sells it on Amazon and it may be cheaper there. It is not in stores like FO's Prospectus.

[TheReverend]

Last year was the worst third down % they have had since 2000. They had been 3rd, 3rd, 13th, and 14th last year under Coyer.

Now, look at this correlation:

2003 3rd in 3rd down % with 29.5% and 2cd in total FD per game with 15.1.

2004 3rd in 3rd down % with 31.1 and first in FD/G with 14.7

2005 13th in 3rd down % with 36.7 and 16th with 18.4 FD/G

2006 14th in 3rd down % with 36.7 and 13th with 18.2 FD/G


What happened to the defense from 2004 to 2005 ??? Browncos. The guys who are being replaced ASAP by Bates on the DL.

Who's being replaced aside from Myers? Ekuban and Warren will still be starting and I don't think you can call Engelberger an upgrade from C. Brown...

[Mediator12]

Warrens days are numbered rev and that will happen sooner rather than later. He does not fit this scheme at NT/ UT. He hates to play two gap and that will come back to haunt him.

Ekuban just had two guys drafted to replace him as a starter. Lang is third on the DC and dropping. Dumervil is a better fit than either in this scheme.

The last days of the CLE bunch are here. Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition ;D

[Requiem]

Warrens days are numbered rev and that will happen sooner rather than later. He does not fit this scheme at NT/ UT. He hates to play two gap and that will come back to haunt him.

Ekuban just had two guys drafted to replace him as a starter. Lang is third on the DC and dropping. Dumervil is a better fit than either in this scheme.

The last days of the CLE bunch are here. Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition ;D

I hate to see any player fail, because when it comes to Warren - I just cry at the money we through at him, but hopefully this is the end. Shanahan can use his pimp cane and slap his ass out of here at the end of the season. :D

Lot of nice young DT's who would really fit well here coming up in this draft. :D

[Derger_Louis]

i dont think he lacks the ability or the athleticism to still be great...and i appreciate him as a Broncos and respect his spot on our team...he IS VERY IMPORTANT....however, i think his rank as the #1 coverage safety in the NFL last year does open the door for some discussion about Joyner's evaluation process...no?

also, the talks for Wesley have really slowed down......good

http://www.denverpost.com/broncos/ci_6569093

I agree. I think Lynch is a great safety, and I have always thought he brought a lot to the team and was one of the key points to the defense. I just don't agree that he is the best coverage safety in the NFL. So if we are just looking at stats without taking anything else into consideration, would you consider a baseball player the best in the game if he had one at bat and hit a home run? I mean, he would have a 1000. batting average and 1000. slugging percentage - obviously, the team wouldn't need to go out and look for a power hitter right? I don't like KC Joyner's work because I don't think you can truely evaluate someone the way that he does it.

[DivineLegion]

I agree. I think Lynch is a great safety, and I have always thought he brought a lot to the team and was one of the key points to the defense. I just don't agree that he is the best coverage safety in the NFL. So if we are just looking at stats without taking anything else into consideration, would you consider a baseball player the best in the game if he had one at bat and hit a home run? I mean, he would have a 1000. batting average and 1000. slugging percentage - obviously, the team wouldn't need to go out and look for a power hitter right? I don't like KC Joyner's work because I don't think you can truely evaluate someone the way that he does it.

Lynch had more passes his way, so using your logic Lynch is WAY better than Reed.

[Derger_Louis]

Lynch had more passes his way, so using your logic Lynch is WAY better than Reed.

How would you come to that conclusion? And what does this have to do with Ed Reed?

[DivineLegion]

:thumbsup: How would you come to that conclusion? And what does this have to do with Ed Reed?

I was trying to use the flow of the tread comparing Lynch to Reed...

This is what I was refering to...

So if we are just looking at stats without taking anything else into consideration, would you consider a baseball player the best in the game if he had one at bat and hit a home run? I mean, he would have a 1000. batting average and 1000. slugging percentage - obviously, the team wouldn't need to go out and look for a power hitter right?

I was using your statment here to compare Lynch to Reed and come to the conclusion that if Lynch was to be compared to Reed becasue he had more passes thrown his way it would make his numbers that more impressive.

[Derger_Louis]

:thumbsup:

I was trying to use the flow of the tread comparing Lynch to Reed...

This is what I was refering to...



I was using your statment here to compare Lynch to Reed and come to the conclusion that if Lynch was to be compared to Reed becasue he had more passes thrown his way it would make his numbers that more impressive.

That is fine, but I am not trying to argue against Ed Reed. My point was that there is more to Football than just stats. There are a lot more variables that need to be analyzed then what KC Joyner does. Teams have different schemes and players are used differently, and I believe that it is hard to gauge who is better when you don't take those things into consideration.

[400HZ]

Joyner has slammed the Chargers every year that I can remember. Does he have any gems this year, Mediator?

[Mediator12]

That is fine, but I am not trying to argue against Ed Reed. My point was that there is more to Football than just stats. There are a lot more variables that need to be analyzed then what KC Joyner does. Teams have different schemes and players are used differently, and I believe that it is hard to gauge who is better when you don't take those things into consideration.

Actually he leaves the numbers to themselves, and then lo and behold he makes an analysis of what the numbers tell you.

I agree that football is a team game and any number of variables contribute to the success or failure on any given play. However, performance can be measured to an extent on any given play as well. Coaches use a grading system to rate a players performance on every play, even at practice in the NFL, and that is what Joyner does.

He has devised a system that breaks down the passing game into matchups and seperates targets, completions, and Yardage per passing attempt. He watches every single NFL pass from every team at least twice in order to record the offensive and defensive performance. I have done this with the broncos games myself, and it is very difficult from the tv angles in some cases. It is an inexact science based on having standard game film that misses 10% of the details that are necessary to be accurate on every play. He never says these are perfect numbers. In fact, he openly acknowledges the flaws up front.

What is unfortunate is people who dismiss them out of hand as a tool to evaluate individual player performance within the context of the teams the players play. It is absolutely amazing to me that the DEN secondary was so extraordinary in the face of a pathetic pass rush. Three of their 4 starters performance were in the top 3 relative to their positions in the NFL. Two of them were number hands down.

What that means to me is that Champ Bailey is BETTER than any other CB in a big way as his numbers should have trended downward in coverage with no consistent pass rush. Instead, they were the best of his career.

What that means to me is tha John Lynch is a dominating coverage safety playing for the DEN Broncos since he came here, despite the lack of a consistent pass rush. He was successful in coverage 80% of the time. No other DB in the league was over 72%. The Lynch is a liability in coverage myth is just that, a myth. He has excelled in coverage despite never being fast, because he understands routes and schemes better than any other FS in the league. He handles HIS coverage better than any other NFL player demonstrated on the field last year.

What that means to me is that Nick Ferguson is a very good SS in coverage, despite the common misperception of most of this board. He also dealt with a poor Pass rushing DL and excelled in covering his assignments.

[Willynowei]

I'm not sure anyone has said Lynch is the best coverage safety in the league on this thread so far. But what I would say is that these numbers show Lynch is good in coverage, and is not the liability some make him out to be.

That said, when someone like Troy Polamalu or Bob Sanders plays over top coverage, I wouldn't be suprised if he's encouraged by coaches to jump on the likely target on that play once the QB has finished his drop.

Now if the QB can get away with throwing a double move on a 3 step drop then is that really even the fault of the safety?

So yeah a lot of things skew it, and no one's going to say they'd rather have Lynch playing safety on a passing down than someone young and fast like Bob Sanders.

But good safeties aren't all athletic, ask any NFC East fans, including Cowboy fans which starter in Dallas is the largest liability in coverage, and 3 out of 4 times, you'd get Roy Williams. Some guys are just bad, others get more responsibilities. But the metrics at the very least show Lynch holds his own and is NOT a liability, like a Roy Williams.

[Mediator12]

Joyner has slammed the Chargers every year that I can remember. Does he have any gems this year, Mediator?

I do not think he has slammed them as much as he has labeled them underachievers. He certainly thinks they are the most talented team in the league from a starters standpoint, he has just had issues with performance outside of Gates, LT, and Merriman on the field. He has hammered Jammer in the past as performing very poorly on the field, and he gives him credit this year for a very solid effort.

He did call Rivers Overrated last year as he fell apart against the blitz in the second half of the season. He had the numbers to back it up, even though the Chargers still ran the ball and played good defense to win.

Overall, he says the loss of a coach like Shottenheimer that built the club on a power concept to the transition of Turner is not going to go smoothly. Turner likes a vertical game and more finesse than power. He does not have the personnel to execute that scheme with SD. He also says having Cottrell calling plays instead of Phillips might cause the defense to be less effective.

I believe the hate towards KC is that he points out the obvious weaknesses of a team that was 14-2 last year. Every team has one if not more and winning makes fans hyper-sensitive to any form of criticism. Talent does not equal championships, putting it all together and playing above your talent level does. Marty had one of the best regular season philosophies in the NFL, but his playoff record speaks volumes about how that record can implode against top level teams that will do what it takes to win. Norv is not much of a proven head coach and their is no indication that getting a new HC is going to help SD turn the corner in the playoffs. His first battle is getting back in a very difficult AFC and winning the AFCW. No team has repeated in the AFCW for awhile.

[vancejohnson82]

[QUOTE=Willynowei;1671200]I'm not sure anyone has said Lynch is the best coverage safety in the league on this thread so far.

Joyner's statistical evaluation came to that conclusion for us and we were just kind of playing with some numbers and misconceptions outside the actual numbers


After this thread I've decided that Joyner's evaluations do have their place in football, and can dispel a number of perceptions we have about players. However, football cannot be broken down into simple numerical equations and individual statistics. As a team, offense or defense, stats over time can definitely tell you something. Individually, I don't believe they can do that.

In baseball, a player's batting average, slugging percentage, HRs, etc... can basically give you the blueprint of that player. I would compare football to the RBI stat in baseball. Sometimes a player is low in RBIs because the TEAM aroudn him can't get on base. In football sometimes there is a TEAM lapse in coverage or tackling and i dont know how you can assign numbers to that.

Then again, I've never read the introduction to Joyner's book, only a few excerpts from his website. So perhaps there is more to it that I'm not taking into consideration.

Also, in my opinion a guy taking a chance and getting beat on a big play every few games is not that big of a deal. Here in Denver the team has struggled to win the turnover battle the last few years (last year was better, however). Players like Ed Reed and even Roy Williams have their place and respect from OCs because they can win a game on one play. Granted, sometimes they can also lose a game on one play but its better than playing conservatively and being eaten alive slowly (a la last year against the Colts and Chargers)

[TheReverend]

Warrens days are numbered rev and that will happen sooner rather than later. He does not fit this scheme at NT/ UT. He hates to play two gap and that will come back to haunt him.

Ekuban just had two guys drafted to replace him as a starter. Lang is third on the DC and dropping. Dumervil is a better fit than either in this scheme.

The last days of the CLE bunch are here. Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition ;D

I disagree about Warren. I know he's not a fan of the scheme but he's going to play it and play it well. Regardless, this has nothing to do with my point. Here's last years Nickel DL that couldn't generate a pass rush:

Ekuban, Warren, Myers, Elvis,
...and rotate a guy in here or there.

This years that is already impressing in camp:
Moss, Ekuban, Warren, Elvis

That's one hell of an overhaul! ROFL!

[Vladimir]

what did KC Joyner say about these players?
Deangelo Hall and the KC secondary?

[Mediator12]

[QUOTE=Willynowei;1671200]I'm not sure anyone has said Lynch is the best coverage safety in the league on this thread so far.

Joyner's statistical evaluation came to that conclusion for us and we were just kind of playing with some numbers and misconceptions outside the actual numbers


After this thread I've decided that Joyner's evaluations do have their place in football, and can dispel a number of perceptions we have about players. However, football cannot be broken down into simple numerical equations and individual statistics. As a team, offense or defense, stats over time can definitely tell you something. Individually, I don't believe they can do that.

In baseball, a player's batting average, slugging percentage, HRs, etc... can basically give you the blueprint of that player. I would compare football to the RBI stat in baseball. Sometimes a player is low in RBIs because the TEAM aroudn him can't get on base. In football sometimes there is a TEAM lapse in coverage or tackling and i dont know how you can assign numbers to that.

Then again, I've never read the introduction to Joyner's book, only a few excerpts from his website. So perhaps there is more to it that I'm not taking into consideration.

Also, in my opinion a guy taking a chance and getting beat on a big play every few games is not that big of a deal. Here in Denver the team has struggled to win the turnover battle the last few years (last year was better, however). Players like Ed Reed and even Roy Williams have their place and respect from OCs because they can win a game on one play. Granted, sometimes they can also lose a game on one play but its better than playing conservatively and being eaten alive slowly (a la last year against the Colts and Chargers)


I am glad you have looked at this more objectively as we have discussed the use of these numbers. The thing that Joyner uses is a Results oriented Binary system or ROBIN to measure performance. The passing game definitely lends more Binary results than most of the rest of football as passes are either completed or they are not. Running plays have way more variables. I think FO does a much better job in gleaning usable rushing game data as they extrapulate more individual position data in the running game than Joyner can do by himself.

What Joyner does right now is to compare actual performance on the field against similar performance by the league. Personally, lining up any Safety on a slot WR in direct coverage is a mismatch no matter who the safety is. The pass rush better be dominant or that Safety is toast. Most Nickle CB's in the NFL are toast against slot WR's. It is not unheard of for DC's to use their #1 or#2 CB in the slot and play their #3 CB on the outside in the nickle to take away the advantage.

I think the safety position as a whole is evolving and not necessarily for the better in the short term. A youth movement is occurring in the NFL and that youth is being exploited by OC's in the passing game despite being better athlete's because they lack experience and understanding of how teams attack them. Many of the top Safeties that have come out and been labeled "cover safety's" have failed in coverage at the NFL level to this point. Playing safety at the NFL level is way more mental than any other position on defense and these guys mental skills are poor right now. I am talking about Both Bullocks brothers, Ko Simpson, Michael Huff, Donte Whitner, Sean Taylor, Sean Jones, Kerry Rhodes, and Roy Williams. All of whom where in the bottom half in coverage for their teams. It takes time for safeties to acclimate to NFL coverage. It is vastly different than their simple College schemes in most cases.

The "Cover Safety" designation is really about as good as "Shutdown CB" as a label in today's passing game. It only exists with one maybe two players. What is more fitting is "Versatile safety" IMHO. Guys who can Blitz, play the run, play robber coverage, and play well in deep and sideline assist coverages. That description fits both of DEN's safety's even though Ferguson is not that adept at Blitzing.

Guys like Adrian Wilson, Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, and Brian Dawkins fit this group and are more athletically inclined than DEN's safety's. Therefore, they get a lot of play based on their playmaking skills and no counter opinions on their equal amount of screwups. The question is do you want to invest in a Playmaking Safety that will help lose as many games as they help win for you? Or do you want solid consistent guys who just out execute the other team 95% of the time? IMHO, its a toss up. Neither is a better solution, but one is way more glorified than the other in the media entertainment world. Heck, Lynch is still called overrated and a liability in coverage because he just does his job instead of ever getting burned!

Teams have to play more nickle than ever before as teams are exploiting the matchups on the safeties in the passing game as well. Unless you have a killer pass rush like PIT, BAL, and usually PHI do do not stick a safety on a slot WR or excellent TE as they will burn you.

[Mediator12]

I disagree about Warren. I know he's not a fan of the scheme but he's going to play it and play it well. Regardless, this has nothing to do with my point. Here's last years Nickel DL that couldn't generate a pass rush:

Ekuban, Warren, Myers, Elvis,
...and rotate a guy in here or there.

This years that is already impressing in camp:
Moss, Ekuban, Warren, Elvis

That's one hell of an overhaul! ROFL!

Why is Warren going to play well when he has not since he joined the NFL? Dude took a straight PAY CUT to stay this year or he would have been cut already. When has he ever made a play or allowed any of his teammates to make one by being double teamed? When has he done ANYTHING to make him more than a bottom level starting DT in this league? Dude has always been inconsistent, but talented.

Ekuban is alright as a backup, but you do not want him starting either. He is a solid grinder at DE, but he does not get pressure on the QB consistantly at all.

Dumervil is a good nickle DE prospect, but he abused backups and poor OT's last year. Did he get to Manning, Palmer, Brady, or Rivers when it counted? No. He did have a sack versus SD, but that was a fumbled snap that Rivers fell on and he was the first to touch him down.

Moss is my boy, enough said!

I was at Camp last year too. The first team offense could not move the ball the whole first week either and hardly at all versus their nickle all camp. We shall see if that group produces anyhting at all in the regular season. BTW, Engleberger had 3 Preseason Sacks last year and none in the regular season. Let's wait and see if the Pass rush is improved until we go to BUF who has a totally revamped unfamiliar OL. If they can not get to that group its going to be a difficult year again.

[Mediator12]

what did KC Joyner say about these players?
Deangelo Hall and the KC secondary?

Hall was 76th in YPA with 9.2. He had a pedestrian 47.1% success rate.

Surtain was the highest rated CB at 69th with 8.7 YPA and a horrible 41% success rate.

Law was 80th at 9.7 YPA and a 36.1% success rate. That was the lowest success rate among Starting CB's ;D

Jarrad Page was excellent in Coverage though. He was 5th in FS coverage with only a 5.4 YPA and 68% success rate.

Greg Wesley OTOH was HORRIBLE in coverage. He had a 15.0 YPA and a meager 51% success rate.

Knight was decent and Pollard did not qualify.

Now who were guys saying Wesley was an upgrade? Nice try BOB!

[Willynowei]

Why is Warren going to play well when he has not since he joined the NFL? Dude took a straight PAY CUT to stay this year or he would have been cut already. When has he ever made a play or allowed any of his teammates to make one by being double teamed? When has he done ANYTHING to make him more than a bottom level starting DT in this league? Dude has always been inconsistent, but talented.

Ekuban is alright as a backup, but you do not want him starting either. He is a solid grinder at DE, but he does not get pressure on the QB consistantly at all.

Dumervil is a good nickle DE prospect, but he abused backups and poor OT's last year. Did he get to Manning, Palmer, Brady, or Rivers when it counted? No. He did have a sack versus SD, but that was a fumbled snap that Rivers fell on and he was the first to touch him down.

Moss is my boy, enough said!

I was at Camp last year too. The first team offense could not move the ball the whole first week either and hardly at all versus their nickle all camp. We shall see if that group produces anyhting at all in the regular season. BTW, Engleberger had 3 Preseason Sacks last year and none in the regular season. Let's wait and see if the Pass rush is improved until we go to BUF who has a totally revamped unfamiliar OL. If they can not get to that group its going to be a difficult year again.


Jarvis Moss was given to us by the football gods in honor of Shanahan finally giving two sh*ts about the most important area on Defense. Marcus Thomas was a gift as well. Importing from Florida was a much better idea than importing from Ohio.

Warren played well on his contract year for us, and we can only hope he plays well now that his Jobs on the line. And his job is very much on the line.

If Thomas develops and Kennedy plays well, Warren won't make it through the next offseason.

[TheReverend]

Why is Warren going to play well when he has not since he joined the NFL? Dude took a straight PAY CUT to stay this year or he would have been cut already. When has he ever made a play or allowed any of his teammates to make one by being double teamed? When has he done ANYTHING to make him more than a bottom level starting DT in this league? Dude has always been inconsistent, but talented.

Ekuban is alright as a backup, but you do not want him starting either. He is a solid grinder at DE, but he does not get pressure on the QB consistantly at all.

Dumervil is a good nickle DE prospect, but he abused backups and poor OT's last year. Did he get to Manning, Palmer, Brady, or Rivers when it counted? No. He did have a sack versus SD, but that was a fumbled snap that Rivers fell on and he was the first to touch him down.

Moss is my boy, enough said!

I was at Camp last year too. The first team offense could not move the ball the whole first week either and hardly at all versus their nickle all camp. We shall see if that group produces anyhting at all in the regular season. BTW, Engleberger had 3 Preseason Sacks last year and none in the regular season. Let's wait and see if the Pass rush is improved until we go to BUF who has a totally revamped unfamiliar OL. If they can not get to that group its going to be a difficult year again.

Med we already know our fundamental disagreement here and have hashed it out. You're right, the time has come for both of us to just shut up and wait and see. But really, the defensive line hasnt particularly changed so we WILL see this year whether it was talent or scheme.

[vancejohnson82]

[QUOTE=Mediator12;1671444][QUOTE=mediator12;1671430]
Many of the top Safeties that have come out and been labeled "cover safety's" have failed in coverage at the NFL level to this point. Playing safety at the NFL level is way more mental than any other position on defense and these guys mental skills are poor right now. I am talking about Both Bullocks brothers, Ko Simpson, Michael Huff, Donte Whitner, Sean Taylor, Sean Jones, Kerry Rhodes, and Roy Williams. All of whom where in the bottom half in coverage for their teams. It takes time for safeties to acclimate to NFL coverage. It is vastly different than their simple College schemes in most cases.
QUOTE]


See I find that interesting....because as a team the Bills (with Whitner and Simpson back there) finished very well in most defensive passing rankings...they are highly touted and part of the reason they let go of Clements (other than the fact that he got a HUGE contract from SF)

so i just wonder how those guys did in Joyner's view.... because as a unit they finished very well

[Mediator12]

[QUOTE=Mediator12;1671444][QUOTE=mediator12;1671430]
Many of the top Safeties that have come out and been labeled "cover safety's" have failed in coverage at the NFL level to this point. Playing safety at the NFL level is way more mental than any other position on defense and these guys mental skills are poor right now. I am talking about Both Bullocks brothers, Ko Simpson, Michael Huff, Donte Whitner, Sean Taylor, Sean Jones, Kerry Rhodes, and Roy Williams. All of whom where in the bottom half in coverage for their teams. It takes time for safeties to acclimate to NFL coverage. It is vastly different than their simple College schemes in most cases.
QUOTE]


See I find that interesting....because as a team the Bills (with Whitner and Simpson back there) finished very well in most defensive passing rankings...they are highly touted and part of the reason they let go of Clements (other than the fact that he got a HUGE contract from SF)

so i just wonder how those guys did in Joyner's view.... because as a unit they finished very well

Simpson was 26th as a FS with a 10.4 YPA and 41.9% success rate.

Whitner was better at 10th for SS with a 6.9 YPA and 51.9% success rate. Whitner was the best Safety in coverage from the above list as well. Of Course, that was WITH Clements playing on his side. It will be interesting to see how he does with McGee as the number one.

[Mediator12]

Med we already know our fundamental disagreement here and have hashed it out. You're right, the time has come for both of us to just shut up and wait and see. But really, the defensive line hasnt particularly changed so we WILL see this year whether it was talent or scheme.

I still say that 6 new DL acquisitions says otherwise REV. Sure Warren and Ekuban are starting right now in TC, but that remains to be seen in the regular season. Kennedy, Adams, and Mckinley are all upgrades at DT from last year over Myers who got abused. They also drafted Two DE's to replace Ekuban sooner rather than later. Plus, they sold multiple Draft picks to improve the DL talent in Moss and Thomas.

They are MUCH better everywhere on the DL heading into this season. The talent is there, but how will it respond to this system? That is the gauge IMHO.