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dragondawg
08-01-2007, 07:52 AM
I haven't written in a few days. I took some time off just to recharge. Now that I'm back it's time to jump head first back into things. What better division to start back up with than the AFC West. Although the Chiefs and the Raiders look like crap, the Broncos and Chargers look like serious contenders again.

We'll start off with the West champs from last year, the San Diego Chargers. First off, they shouldn't have fired Marty Schottenheimer. Second, Norv Turner was a terrible choice. On to the players, they didn't lose much other than Donnie Edwards. Their greatest strength is at running back. Last year's MVP, LT, is apt to repeat last year's performance. In addition to LT, they brought back Michael Turner and Lorenzo Neal. This is the best backfield in the NFL. They are really strong at QB with Phillip Rivers. Rivers is entering his second year as the starter. He's primed to have another good year, although he doesn't have any great receivers other than Antonio Gates. Gates has fast become one of the elite tight ends in the league. He's big, he's fast, he can catch, and he's got it all. But when Vincent Jackson is your elite receiver on your team, you've got a clear need for some pro-bowl talent at the position. They've got a solid o-line with a good young core. They don't need to be great, just good. They just need to do enough to pave the way for LT. On to the defense, the d-line doesn't really impress me outside of Luis Castillo. They may perform, but no one really wows me. They have a good set of linebackers. Shawn Merriman is the leader of this defense, and one of the most explosive players in the NFL. Although he got caught using steroids last year, he served his suspension and I would assume he is clean. I've done it a few times before and I'll do it here, spotlight the kicker. Nate Kaeding is fast becoming one of the elite kickers in the league. He doesn't have the strongest leg, but he's really accurate. I think the Chargers are going to win the West again. They'll go 14-2.

Next in line is the Denver Broncos. Even with the tragedies that have fallen upon this team over the past year, they are still a strong team. They have a great young quarterback in Jay Cutler. He took over starting role in the middle of last year for Jake Plummer, and he instantly thrived under Mike Shanahan. Cutler has a great arm, and in the next few years I think he will be one of the tops in the league. They added Travis Henry over the offseason. He is one of the things this team was really missing last year, a solid starting running back. With the Broncos o-line, Henry should have a great season. The Broncos are a very deep wide receiving corps. Although Rod Smith is reaching the end of his career, he can still be good for some yards this year. They added Brandon Stokley in the offseason and he is a good weapon to add to Cutler's arsenal. Let's not forget the most dangerous receiver Javon Walker. Walker is entering his second season with Denver, and he had a great season last year. As for the d-line, they are taking strides in the right direction. They added Sam Adams from free agency and Jarvis Moss through the draft. In short, it looks like they're done with their Cleveland Browns experiment. Even though Al Wilson is gone, they still have D.J. Williams and Ian Gold. I think they are perfectly capable of picking up the slack. They have a great set of defensive backs led by Champ Bailey. Bailey is still tops as far as d-backs go. The Broncos will have a great year this year. I have them going 13-3.

Next we'll go to the Kansas City Chiefs. The Chiefs have a laundry list of problems. First they have no starting quarterback. It sounds like they're leaning towards Brodie Croyle, btu I think they should go with Damon Huard. Their next problem is Larry Johnson. If LJ holds out, it might not be as bad as it could be. Priest Holmes is on the mend and he looks like he could step in and take the starting role, and it wouldn't be that big of a deal, except for fantasy owners. Next, they don't have any solid wide receivers. They still have Tony Gonzalez, and he's always been a solid target. But, he is on the downside of his career. As for their D, it has some bright spots. Tamba Hali and Jared Allen are two young and capable ends that look like they will have promising NFL careers. They have a great set of linebackers in Donnie Edwards, Derrick Johnson, and Kendrell Bell. However, they have a practically non-existent secondary. Ty Law and Patrick Surtain are old and, like Gonzalez, look to be on the backside of their best years. I don't like this team. I have them finishing 3-13.

Last we have the Oakland Raiders. As with other teams, I will put this out before I start. I hate the Oakland Raiders. JaMarcus Russell looks like he could have a great career, and today the silver and black added the guy everyone was comparing him to (before he was injured) in Daunte Culpepper. I don't like this backfield. They added Dominic Rhodes in the off season, which could work out. I don't think it will, but we'll see. I like the addition of Justin Griffith. Let's hope he doesn't put his talent to waste out west. They added a bunch of nobodies at wide receiver and lose Randy Moss in the process. They pretty much have Jerry Porter, and he still doesn't seem happy to me to be there. They have a terrible o-line. They drafted Zach Miller, which could turn out to be a great pick. If he is as good as advertised, he should be a great target for Russell (or Culpepper, haha). They don't have any names that stand out on the d-line; that includes Warren Sapp. Sapp, although in what seems to be the best shape of his life, is on the backside of his career. They have Kirk Morrison, who had a great rookie season, at linebacker. And they have what could be a great secondary. They add Donovan Darius through free agency, as well as a slew of good young talent in Michael Huff, Stuart Schweigert, Fabian Washington, and Nnamdi Asomugha. And let's not forget good ol' Sebas. With the most massive arms I've ever seen on a kicker, we'll see if he can return to his pro-bowl form of a few years ago. With all that said, this team looks to be a bottom dweller yet again. I have them going 2-14. So, it's either them or the Browns (which would go to the Cowboys) that will get Darren McFadden.

Here's the recap, boys and girls:

San Diego � 14-2
Denver � 13-3
Kansas City � 3-13
Oakland � 2-14

http://yardbarker.com/nfl/articles/2007_2008_NFL_Preview_AFC_WEST_part_6_of_8/21761

Dukes
08-01-2007, 08:26 AM
3-13! Hilarious!

SleepingTiger
08-01-2007, 09:52 AM
jamal williams is pretty dang good! i think he makes the chargers dline.

Rock Chalk
08-01-2007, 09:53 AM
No way in hell the West is that lopsided from top to bottom.

No way in hell SD and Denver both manage 5 losses between them.

Best case scenario is a 12-4 and 11-5 record for the top two teams.

KC will finish 5-11 and Jokeland will finish 6-10, maybe 9-7

Hogan11
08-01-2007, 10:02 AM
I for one don't really get this "done with their Cleveland Browns experiment" stuff I read....I mean, Warren, Ekuban & Lang are still here right? That's three out of five.

Willynowei
08-01-2007, 10:05 AM
SD's D-line is monsterous, I don't know what this guy is talking about.

Any of these experts who think Oakland and KC are going to be that crappy this year simply don't follow the AFC West. I can't remember the last time a division winner repeated, and strength of schedule is extremely important in our division as the AFC West teams almost always split w/ each other.

As much as I hate to say it, I can see Oakland nearing positive within the next two seasons given the defensive base they've built over there. San Diego's had the same top level talent for 5 or so years, they've still been a roller coaster ride over the last few seasons. They'll have the least forgiving schedule next year, and I can easily see them screwing up a few games.

Denver 11-5 (Denver better Div Record)
San Diego 11-5
Oakland 7-9
Kansas 6-10

Heard it here first, I see Oakland nearing 8-8 next year. You're talking about a Defense who played like they were the Ravens last year and an Offense that only needs a little success to grab them a 7-9 record, not to mention, Special teams might steal them a few given their #32 ranked schedule.

fdf
08-01-2007, 11:02 AM
"They added Sam Adams from free agency and Jarvis Moss through the draft. In short, it looks like they're done with their Cleveland Browns experiment."

Ignoring, of course, the fact that two of the four DL starters will almost certainly be Browncos.

400HZ
08-01-2007, 11:36 AM
SD's D-line is monsterous, I don't know what this guy is talking about.

Any of these experts who think Oakland and KC are going to be that crappy this year simply don't follow the AFC West. I can't remember the last time a division winner repeated, and strength of schedule is extremely important in our division as the AFC West teams almost always split w/ each other.

As much as I hate to say it, I can see Oakland nearing positive within the next two seasons given the defensive base they've built over there. San Diego's had the same top level talent for 5 or so years, they've still been a roller coaster ride over the last few seasons. They'll have the least forgiving schedule next year, and I can easily see them screwing up a few games.

Denver 11-5 (Denver better Div Record)
San Diego 11-5
Oakland 7-9
Kansas 6-10

Heard it here first, I see Oakland nearing 8-8 next year. You're talking about a Defense who played like they were the Ravens last year and an Offense that only needs a little success to grab them a 7-9 record, not to mention, Special teams might steal them a few given their #32 ranked schedule.

Oakland has one of the tougher strengths of schedule in the league. All three divisional opponents had winning records last year! I'm pretty sure the Bears have the #32 ranked schedule...like always.

boltaneer
08-01-2007, 12:13 PM
Oakland has one of the tougher strengths of schedule in the league. All three divisional opponents had winning records last year! I'm pretty sure the Bears have the #32 ranked schedule...like always.

You are correct. Oakland has the toughest SOS this year (tied with Buffalo):

The Bears are actually 31st, with Arizona in 32nd.

BTW, the 49ers are 30th, Rams 28th and Seahawks 24th... You gotta low how all of the NFC West is always in the bottom 25% percent of the SOS.

TheNextStep
08-01-2007, 01:07 PM
The Raiders have nobody of note on their defensive line?

I'd write a rebuttal but if it is this bad to start with, what would be the point of debate?

No, no... you nailed it, dragondawg! Great post!

Paladin
08-01-2007, 02:40 PM
Where them Manningites at?

Vegas_Bronco
08-01-2007, 02:50 PM
FUTURE ODDS - Number of Wins in Season:

<TABLE id=wagerTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=odd vAlign=center><TD width="50%"></TD><TD noWrap>Denver Broncos</TD><TD noWrap align=right>Over 9.5 (-125)</TD><TD align=middle><INPUT onclick=checkBox(this) type=checkbox value=F510-DenverBroncos-123007,11 name=TOTAL_016> </TD><TD width="50%"></TD></TR><TR class=odd vAlign=center><TD width="50%"></TD><TD> </TD><TD noWrap align=right>Under 9.5 (-105)</TD><TD align=middle><INPUT onclick=checkBox(this) type=checkbox value=F510-DenverBroncos-123007,12 name=TOTAL_017> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=wagerTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=odd vAlign=center><TD colSpan=9></TD></TR><TR class=odd vAlign=center><TD width="50%"></TD><TD noWrap>Kansas City Chiefs</TD><TD noWrap align=right>Over 7.5 (+105)</TD><TD align=middle><INPUT onclick=checkBox(this) type=checkbox value=F510-KansasCityChiefs-123007,11 name=TOTAL_028> </TD><TD width="50%"></TD></TR><TR class=odd vAlign=center><TD width="50%"></TD><TD> </TD><TD noWrap align=right>Under 7.5 (-135)</TD><TD align=middle><INPUT onclick=checkBox(this) type=checkbox value=F510-KansasCityChiefs-123007,12 name=TOTAL_029> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE id=wagerTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=even vAlign=center><TD width="50%"></TD><TD noWrap>Oakland Raiders</TD><TD noWrap align=right>Over 5 (-130)</TD><TD align=middle><INPUT onclick=checkBox(this) type=checkbox value=F510-OaklandRaiders-123007,11 name=TOTAL_042> </TD><TD width="50%"></TD></TR><TR class=even vAlign=center><TD width="50%"></TD><TD> </TD><TD noWrap align=right>Under 5 (Even)</TD><TD align=middle><INPUT onclick=checkBox(this) type=checkbox value=F510-OaklandRaiders-123007,12 name=TOTAL_043> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE id=wagerTable cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=2 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR class=odd vAlign=center><TD colSpan=9></TD></TR><TR class=odd vAlign=center><TD width="50%"></TD><TD noWrap>San Diego Chargers</TD><TD noWrap align=right>Over 10.5 (-145)</TD><TD align=middle><INPUT onclick=checkBox(this) type=checkbox value=F510-SanDiegoChargers-123007,11 name=TOTAL_048> </TD><TD width="50%"></TD></TR><TR class=odd vAlign=center><TD width="50%"></TD><TD> </TD><TD noWrap align=right>Under 10.5 (+115)</TD><TD align=middle><INPUT onclick=checkBox(this) type=checkbox value=F510-SanDiegoChargers-123007,12 name=TOTAL_049> </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Appears that Denver has the momentum going into the season - San Diego is 1 game up but with timid odds to sustain the position.

Merlin
08-01-2007, 02:53 PM
Heard it here first, I see Oakland nearing 8-8 next year. You're talking about a Defense who played like they were the Ravens last year.
Sorry, but this is just parroting other people who are just doing poor analysis. There is no way that D could be compared to the Ravens. A great D wins more than 2 games a season regardless of the incompetence of the O. They had a good D, but nowhere near great. However, they are getting better.

NFLBRONCO
08-01-2007, 04:42 PM
13-3 is a stretch for a team with all the changes Denver has made. I predicted 12-4 myself but, I also realize its possible we might not reach that goal this year we'll see.