ICON
07-18-2007, 04:05 PM
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/7033282
1. Dallas (1)
After six weeks of Drew Bledsoe, the Cowboys' receivers were struggling. While Terry Glenn had a very respectable 16.8 percent DVOA, Terrell Owens was at a woeful -7.7 percent, and Patrick Crayton (the likely third or fourth target on most plays) had only been thrown 12 passes in six weeks because Bledsoe couldn't stay upright long enough to find him. Even Jason Witten's 17.0 percent DVOA had him at a mediocre 13th amongst tight ends.
By the end of the year, Glenn's DVOA had improved to 20.4 percent, while Owens got all the way up to 12.2 percent. Crayton got 36 more attempts in the final 10 games and was the best third receiver in football. Witten's DVOA went up to 19.1 percent, seventh amongst all tight ends. The point: Having an even competent quarterback can be the difference between a group of receivers struggling, or being amongst the league's elite. While Owens and Glenn are getting up there in age, both have yet to show an appreciable level of decline in their metrics, and Owens will likely see an improved catch rate after healing his finger injury. Crayton remains one of the unsung threats in the league, and Witten, the best tight end in a division full of them. A team's top four receivers will see 65-70 percent of all the throws made by a quarterback over the course of a season; one through four, no one's better than the Cowboys.
2. Indianapolis (3)
On one hand, it would be incredibly interesting to see what would happen if Marvin Harrison ended up playing with Charlie Frye, or someone of that ilk. How much of his performance would he lose? On the other hand, breaking up Manning and Harrison just seems wrong, like sticking Tennille with Tom Jones, Chuck D with Prince Markie D.
What makes Indianapolis so dangerous, though, is their depth. In Harrison and Reggie Wayne (No. 1 and No. 2 in wide receiver DPAR last season), they have a one-two punch to match any in football; when you add Dallas Clark to the equation, you may have the three best pure receivers in the game. What makes this team even scarier in 2007 is the addition of Anthony Gonzalez in the first round; while it's impossible to forecast certain success for the young man, take a gander at the other skill-position players the Colts have used first-round picks on under Bill Polian: Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne. These guys could make Jim Sorgi look good. While Gonzalez will undoubtedly struggle some with the complex Colts playbook, his 3.6 GPA while at Ohio State offers some encouragement that he might be a quick study.
3. Cincinnati (4)
As good as Indianapolis' starting wide receivers were, Cincinnati's star combo of Chad Johnson (5th in DPAR) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (4th) were right behind them. In fact, it's easy to construct a pretty convincing argument that by the time Carson Palmer had come all the way back from his knee injury, the combination were approaching the performance of Wayne and Harrison. Before the Bengals bye in Week 5, the Colts' duo were averaging 5.5 DPAR per game combined, while the Bengals' top two had a measly 2.3 DPAR per game between them. Over the rest of the year, while the Colts' stars kept their numbers up at 5.69 DPAR per game, the Bengals got up to 4.46 DPAR per game; still not at the Colts' level, but approaching it.
What separates the Colts' offense from the Bengals, though, is depth. The Bengals offense does not enjoy a threat at tight end the level of Dallas Clark, although Reggie Kelly has proven to be an effective receiver (17.8 percent DVOA in 2006) when used. While Chris Henry was an excellent third wide receiver, a full season of Anthony Gonzalez will be better than the maximum eight games Henry will be allowed to suit up for in 2007. While they're not the Colts' set of receivers — very few teams in NFL history have been — Johnson and Houshmandzadeh are an elite duo, and they are likely to continue to be for at least two more seasons.
4. Baltimore (18)
A great group of receivers hidden by a quarterback losing his arm strength and pocket dexterity. While neither Derrick Mason nor Mark Clayton had spectacular statistics last season, the offensive scheme they played in, and Steve McNair's quickness to check down caused some deflation in their numbers as opposed to their actual talent level. Mason remains one of the more reliable No. 1 receivers in football, a steady target who runs excellent routes and frees up space underneath while being double-covered. Clayton, on the other hand, is a star waiting to happen, a deep threat in the vein of Chicago's Bernard Berrian with an upside not dissimilar to Carolina's Steve Smith. He gained confidence as the year went along, and by the time the playoffs rolled around, was receiver No. 1A. He may have as good a chance to enjoy a breakout 2007 as anyone in pro football.
While third wideout Demetrius Williams is a step down from those two, he was a serviceable deep threat in his first season of playing time on offense, and is likely to see more action out of the slot as the Ravens open up their offense some in 2007. The real third option, though, is tight end Todd Heap, who's ready to assume the mantle of best non-Gates tight end in football from Tony Gonzalez as he enters his peak and Gonzalez leaves his. Heap remains an excellent end zone option and requires safeties to help out on him, creating space for Clayton behind them.
The Football Outsiders say Anquan Boldin hasn't been as great as his numbers would suggest in Arizona. (Brian Bahr / Getty Images)
5. Arizona (6)
Oh, if they only had a tight end. Last year, we panned former first-round pick and Cardinals' third receiver Bryant Johnson as a bust, and the player holding the Cardinals' wideouts back; Johnson responded with an excellent campaign, ranking 13th in DVOA and 27th in DPAR despite not being a starter. This year, we turn our scornful gaze, surprisingly, toward Anquan Boldin; while he's been a workhorse at wide receiver (his 18.8 points of DPAR were 21st in the league last year), he's yet to post a DVOA above 5 percent in his career, which points somewhat to the source of his success being a significant level of usage as opposed to spectacular performance. Expect that to improve some as the Cardinals' offensive line does. The scary thing is that this threesome is already among the top two or three in football on their own merits, and they're just now getting a good quarterback and slowly developing an offensive line. Oh, and they haven't even hit their peak yet.
6. Denver (14)
It's not often that a team's Hall of Fame receiver suffers a steep decline and yet the receiving corps gets better, but that's exactly what's happened in Denver. Despite the controversy at quarterback, Javon Walker emerged as roughly the same receiver he was in Green Bay before his 2005 ACL tear; he was eighth in DPAR and 22nd in DVOA in 2004, 16th and 30th, respectively, in 2006. The effects of having to adjust to Jay Cutler's development and Jake Plummer's regression peg those as sufficiently similar performances. Of course, to speak of regression would require discussing Rod Smith, who absolutely fell off the cliff in 2006, 78th in DPAR and 77th in DVOA; toast got offended when you mistook it for the far-more-burnt Smith. With Smith still struggling to return from hip surgery, Denver will likely give more playing time to free agent Brandon Stokley and promising second-year player Brandon Marshall, who came on at season's end and looks to be a real player.
The other advantage to Denver's attack are their tight ends, who may be the deepest group in the game. Former Patriots first-round pick Daniel Graham is primarily known as a mauler, but he's also a reliable pair of hands and good underneath option; meanwhile, backup Tony Scheffler posted an 8.7 percent DVOA last year, good enough for 14th in the league. He runs deeper routes than Graham, and the two will serve as solid complements to each other. Last year's starter, Stephen Alexander, will likely remain as a blocker and decoy receiver. All in all, Cutler will be spoiled for choice in his first full season at the helm.
20. Kansas City (7)
24. Oakland (12)
1. Dallas (1)
After six weeks of Drew Bledsoe, the Cowboys' receivers were struggling. While Terry Glenn had a very respectable 16.8 percent DVOA, Terrell Owens was at a woeful -7.7 percent, and Patrick Crayton (the likely third or fourth target on most plays) had only been thrown 12 passes in six weeks because Bledsoe couldn't stay upright long enough to find him. Even Jason Witten's 17.0 percent DVOA had him at a mediocre 13th amongst tight ends.
By the end of the year, Glenn's DVOA had improved to 20.4 percent, while Owens got all the way up to 12.2 percent. Crayton got 36 more attempts in the final 10 games and was the best third receiver in football. Witten's DVOA went up to 19.1 percent, seventh amongst all tight ends. The point: Having an even competent quarterback can be the difference between a group of receivers struggling, or being amongst the league's elite. While Owens and Glenn are getting up there in age, both have yet to show an appreciable level of decline in their metrics, and Owens will likely see an improved catch rate after healing his finger injury. Crayton remains one of the unsung threats in the league, and Witten, the best tight end in a division full of them. A team's top four receivers will see 65-70 percent of all the throws made by a quarterback over the course of a season; one through four, no one's better than the Cowboys.
2. Indianapolis (3)
On one hand, it would be incredibly interesting to see what would happen if Marvin Harrison ended up playing with Charlie Frye, or someone of that ilk. How much of his performance would he lose? On the other hand, breaking up Manning and Harrison just seems wrong, like sticking Tennille with Tom Jones, Chuck D with Prince Markie D.
What makes Indianapolis so dangerous, though, is their depth. In Harrison and Reggie Wayne (No. 1 and No. 2 in wide receiver DPAR last season), they have a one-two punch to match any in football; when you add Dallas Clark to the equation, you may have the three best pure receivers in the game. What makes this team even scarier in 2007 is the addition of Anthony Gonzalez in the first round; while it's impossible to forecast certain success for the young man, take a gander at the other skill-position players the Colts have used first-round picks on under Bill Polian: Peyton Manning, Edgerrin James, Joseph Addai, Reggie Wayne. These guys could make Jim Sorgi look good. While Gonzalez will undoubtedly struggle some with the complex Colts playbook, his 3.6 GPA while at Ohio State offers some encouragement that he might be a quick study.
3. Cincinnati (4)
As good as Indianapolis' starting wide receivers were, Cincinnati's star combo of Chad Johnson (5th in DPAR) and T.J. Houshmandzadeh (4th) were right behind them. In fact, it's easy to construct a pretty convincing argument that by the time Carson Palmer had come all the way back from his knee injury, the combination were approaching the performance of Wayne and Harrison. Before the Bengals bye in Week 5, the Colts' duo were averaging 5.5 DPAR per game combined, while the Bengals' top two had a measly 2.3 DPAR per game between them. Over the rest of the year, while the Colts' stars kept their numbers up at 5.69 DPAR per game, the Bengals got up to 4.46 DPAR per game; still not at the Colts' level, but approaching it.
What separates the Colts' offense from the Bengals, though, is depth. The Bengals offense does not enjoy a threat at tight end the level of Dallas Clark, although Reggie Kelly has proven to be an effective receiver (17.8 percent DVOA in 2006) when used. While Chris Henry was an excellent third wide receiver, a full season of Anthony Gonzalez will be better than the maximum eight games Henry will be allowed to suit up for in 2007. While they're not the Colts' set of receivers — very few teams in NFL history have been — Johnson and Houshmandzadeh are an elite duo, and they are likely to continue to be for at least two more seasons.
4. Baltimore (18)
A great group of receivers hidden by a quarterback losing his arm strength and pocket dexterity. While neither Derrick Mason nor Mark Clayton had spectacular statistics last season, the offensive scheme they played in, and Steve McNair's quickness to check down caused some deflation in their numbers as opposed to their actual talent level. Mason remains one of the more reliable No. 1 receivers in football, a steady target who runs excellent routes and frees up space underneath while being double-covered. Clayton, on the other hand, is a star waiting to happen, a deep threat in the vein of Chicago's Bernard Berrian with an upside not dissimilar to Carolina's Steve Smith. He gained confidence as the year went along, and by the time the playoffs rolled around, was receiver No. 1A. He may have as good a chance to enjoy a breakout 2007 as anyone in pro football.
While third wideout Demetrius Williams is a step down from those two, he was a serviceable deep threat in his first season of playing time on offense, and is likely to see more action out of the slot as the Ravens open up their offense some in 2007. The real third option, though, is tight end Todd Heap, who's ready to assume the mantle of best non-Gates tight end in football from Tony Gonzalez as he enters his peak and Gonzalez leaves his. Heap remains an excellent end zone option and requires safeties to help out on him, creating space for Clayton behind them.
The Football Outsiders say Anquan Boldin hasn't been as great as his numbers would suggest in Arizona. (Brian Bahr / Getty Images)
5. Arizona (6)
Oh, if they only had a tight end. Last year, we panned former first-round pick and Cardinals' third receiver Bryant Johnson as a bust, and the player holding the Cardinals' wideouts back; Johnson responded with an excellent campaign, ranking 13th in DVOA and 27th in DPAR despite not being a starter. This year, we turn our scornful gaze, surprisingly, toward Anquan Boldin; while he's been a workhorse at wide receiver (his 18.8 points of DPAR were 21st in the league last year), he's yet to post a DVOA above 5 percent in his career, which points somewhat to the source of his success being a significant level of usage as opposed to spectacular performance. Expect that to improve some as the Cardinals' offensive line does. The scary thing is that this threesome is already among the top two or three in football on their own merits, and they're just now getting a good quarterback and slowly developing an offensive line. Oh, and they haven't even hit their peak yet.
6. Denver (14)
It's not often that a team's Hall of Fame receiver suffers a steep decline and yet the receiving corps gets better, but that's exactly what's happened in Denver. Despite the controversy at quarterback, Javon Walker emerged as roughly the same receiver he was in Green Bay before his 2005 ACL tear; he was eighth in DPAR and 22nd in DVOA in 2004, 16th and 30th, respectively, in 2006. The effects of having to adjust to Jay Cutler's development and Jake Plummer's regression peg those as sufficiently similar performances. Of course, to speak of regression would require discussing Rod Smith, who absolutely fell off the cliff in 2006, 78th in DPAR and 77th in DVOA; toast got offended when you mistook it for the far-more-burnt Smith. With Smith still struggling to return from hip surgery, Denver will likely give more playing time to free agent Brandon Stokley and promising second-year player Brandon Marshall, who came on at season's end and looks to be a real player.
The other advantage to Denver's attack are their tight ends, who may be the deepest group in the game. Former Patriots first-round pick Daniel Graham is primarily known as a mauler, but he's also a reliable pair of hands and good underneath option; meanwhile, backup Tony Scheffler posted an 8.7 percent DVOA last year, good enough for 14th in the league. He runs deeper routes than Graham, and the two will serve as solid complements to each other. Last year's starter, Stephen Alexander, will likely remain as a blocker and decoy receiver. All in all, Cutler will be spoiled for choice in his first full season at the helm.
20. Kansas City (7)
24. Oakland (12)