SECOND GUESSER'S POLL: Tim Crowder or Kris Jenkins?

[BroncoBuff]

This weekend brings out such a wide-eyed optimism and irrational exuberance in teams and fans every year (Mike Mayock callls it "falling in love with your draft boards), that I thought I'd put it to a poll, and re-visit it annually to put each of us to the test of time.

I WILL SAVE THESE POLL RESULTS AND RE-OPEN THIS THREAD every draft week for the next few years to see how we're all doing.



THE PREMISE: BroncoBuff believes we screwed up royally by not trading our 2nd round pick - #56 overall - to Carolina for Kris Jenkins. Instead we chose Texas DE Tim Crowder. In my humble opinion ... Kris Jenkins, a 27-year-old three-time Pro Bowler at a position of great need whose measurables are perfect for the Bates scheme, will prove to be a significantly more valuable player than Crowder in hindsight - by a clear cut margin.



In my view, Shanahan "fell in love with his draft boards," and failed to heed the reality that overall, 2nd round draft picks in the NFL fall into three fairly evenly split categories: 1/3 perform up to or above expectations, 1/3 hang on in the league for 3-5 years, and 1/3 wash out on or before their first 3-4 years.

Kris Jenkins is a 6-year vet, and was the Panthers' second round pick in 2001 (taken six picks before our Paul Toviessi - also a DT). The fact that Jenkins is still in the NFL already bumps him up to the middle 1/3 of all 2nd rounders. His three Pro Bowls easily bump him to the top 1/3. He has proven beyond all doubt that he belongs in the league, and plays at a very high - even dominant level. The downsides (which are why he's available for trade), include missing 1 1/2 years (04, 05) with an injury that was compounded by a poor rehab, and by his alcohol abuse during the downtime. He also battles weight issues, and was about 30 pounds overweight on draft day 2007. He also battled weight during the 2006 season, but made the Pro Bowl anyway.

ONE LAST THING BEFORE YOU VOTE: Here are the last six Broncos 2nd round picks: Paul Toviessi, Clinton Portis, Terry Pierce, Tatum Bell, Darius Watts, D-Will. Only Portis and D-Will were solid choices - top 1/3. Tatum Bell was so-so, middle 1/3. The other three bottom 1/3.

[Pendejo]

I've been out pretty much from 1pm to 12 am pacific time, so excuse me if I've missed something.

Has Jenkins been traded? Was it for a 2nd rounder?

Crowder was productive at a major school, and has fine measurables. He looks like a very solid pick.

[BroncoBuff]

No, he's still a Panther. But all the papers and sites (and the Panthers themselves) said they dropped their demand yesterday or Thursday to a 2nd rounder for Jenkins. Nobody made the deal, we took Crowder instead.

I'm thinking Jenkins - for a 2nd rounder - would've been a carbon-copy of the Javon Walker deal last year. A nearly-identical scenario, all the way around. In fact, the Javon deal was a bit more risky because his injury was current - he had missed a great deal of time right up to the trade date. Jenkins, on the other hand, went to the Pro Bowl this year.

[Crushaholic]

Terry Pierce was drafted primarily because of the fear Al Wilson wasn't going to re-sign.

On the other hand, I guess the fact that he never caught on with another team says he was a bust...LOL

[BroncoInferno]

You are being very presumptuous by assuming the Panthers were willing to trade Jenkins for a low 2nd. Most indications in my neck of the woods (Panther country) is that they were not. They thought they could extract 1st round or at least high 2nd value for Jenkins, but it wasn't offered and so they weren't willing budge.

[Atlas]

This weekend brings out such a wide-eyed optimism and irrational exuberance in teams and fans every year (Mike Mayock callls it "falling in love with your draft boards), that I thought I'd put it to a poll, and re-visit it annually to put each of us to the test of time.

I WILL SAVE THESE POLL RESULTS AND RE-OPEN THIS THREAD every draft week for the next few years to see how we're all doing.



THE PREMISE: BroncoBuff believes we screwed up royally by not trading our 2nd round pick - #56 overall - to Carolina for Kris Jenkins. Instead we chose Texas DE Tim Crowder. In my humble opinion ... Kris Jenkins, a 27-year-old three-time Pro Bowler at a position of great need whose measurables are perfect for the Bates scheme, will prove to be a significantly more valuable player than Crowder in hindsight - by a clear cut margin.



In my view, Shanahan "fell in love with his draft boards," and failed to heed the reality that overall, 2nd round draft picks in the NFL fall into three fairly evenly split categories: 1/3 perform up to or above expectations, 1/3 hang on in the league for 3-5 years, and 1/3 wash out on or before their first 3-4 years.

Kris Jenkins is a 6-year vet, and was the Panthers' second round pick in 2001 (taken six picks before our Paul Toviessi - also a DT). The fact that Jenkins is still in the NFL already bumps him up to the middle 1/3 of all 2nd rounders. His three Pro Bowls easily bump him to the top 1/3. He has proven beyond all doubt that he belongs in the league, and plays at a very high - even dominant level. The downsides (which are why he's available for trade), include missing 1 1/2 years (04, 05) with an injury that was compounded by a poor rehab, and by his alcohol abuse during the downtime. He also battles weight issues, and was about 30 pounds overweight on draft day 2007. He also battled weight during the 2006 season, but made the Pro Bowl anyway.

ONE LAST THING BEFORE YOU VOTE: Here are the last six Broncos 2nd round picks: Paul Toviessi, Clinton Portis, Terry Pierce, Tatum Bell, Darius Watts, D-Will. Only Portis and D-Will were solid choices - top 1/3. Tatum Bell was so-so, middle 1/3. The other three bottom 1/3.

Crowder by a wide margin. There is a reason why Jenkins hasn't been traded and it's not because Carolina is asking too much. The guy wants his contract re-done on any trade and that will amount to somewhere around $8 million a year. HE just isn't worth it. Too many risks involved for some guy that eats too much. Crowder is really good. He is a true end and he is a workout warrior. He is 274 lbs now and he could be a mean 290. HE is raw and needs some coaching. Denver got a pass rush spexialist and a true everydown DE. How can anyone not like that?

[Drek]

Jenkins isn't actually a great comp to Walker.

Javon was coming back from an ACL injury, many guys have come back from them in the NFL to be 100% and not carry any lingering concerns. Jenkins meanwhile had shoulder and knee problems. The likelihood he saw a flare up is much higher than Walker.

Also, he wanted a new deal, Walker got an extension that we could've opted out after last season if he wasn't up to snuff. Big difference between guaranteeing the money before he's put on your team's uni and having a year evaluation period.

I wouldn't have send #56 for him and am very happy we took a super athlete like Crowder who could become an excellent LDE for us.

Thats not to say I didn't want Jenkins, just not for our 2nd and not if it means giving him a fat new deal. We were in three party negotiations in which the other parties both wanted us to pick up all the slack. No thanks.

[Arkansas Bronco]

I love the Crowder pick but i wanted a Big Fatty yesterday so i was dissapointed.

[Willynowei]

This is not fair at all dude. OBVIOUSLY you go for Jenkins if all things are equal. But the problem is the Broncos would have to agree on a brand new contract in the area of what they are paying Champ Bailey. You can think of it how you want, but I'm saying, Jenkins is something like a 2nd round pick + 8million this year in cap, whereas, Crowder is a 2nd round pick + a couple hundred thousand.

I also can't be dissapointed that Bates wants to go after home grown talent. When we were discussing trade options with New York this year, i was very jealous that they seamed to have limitless impact defensive ends, all of them drafted and groomed.

For me, if you factor in the money, even though obviously Jenkins seems like the much better player, I would have to say that we can't treat him as a real option considering 30 other teams in the NFL had the same opportunity and there isn't a single one of them who couldn't use the services of a guy who was once the most dominating defensive player in the NFL, there must be some reason.

I think the atmosphere in Carolina suggests that if anyone is willing to shell out 8 million this year, they might get him for the same amount of money next year in free agency no matter how well he plays this season, in other words, he's asking for top 5 money, so regardless of what happens over this season, next year Carolina has no choice but to dump him, and he can't possibly cost much more than what he's asking for, and he would be less risky anyway.

[footstepsfrom#27]

In my view, Shanahan "fell in love with his draft boards," and failed to heed the reality that overall, 2nd round draft picks in the NFL fall into three fairly evenly split categories: 1/3 perform up to or above expectations, 1/3 hang on in the league for 3-5 years, and 1/3 wash out on or before their first 3-4 years.

ONE LAST THING BEFORE YOU VOTE: Here are the last six Broncos 2nd round picks: Paul Toviessi, Clinton Portis, Terry Pierce, Tatum Bell, Darius Watts, D-Will. Only Portis and D-Will were solid choices - top 1/3. Tatum Bell was so-so, middle 1/3. The other three bottom 1/3.
Impossible to call at such an early junction... Shanahan hits on roughly 38% of his 2nd round picks (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?p=1566596&highlight=38%25#post1566596) so the odds say Jenkins would have been a better choice ASSUMING he would come for the #2. I posted several times on the prior Jenkins threads that they'd already stated that they wouldn't trade him for less than a 1st rounder, but nobody wanted to believe that. No other NFL teams landed him either, which leads me to believe they held fast to that position and the rest of the league also agreed with that view and considered him not worth the risk for that price.

The better question might be whether we should have used our #1 to risk trading for Jenkins since we reached for a player with a 265 pound bench press who is likely to be a 3rd down situational pass rusher. I opposed the Jenkins trade because I thought Shanny would use the choices in a weak and shallow draft as leverage to trade up for a blue chip player like Anderson or Willis. Since that didn't happen, at this point I'd have preferred the risk on Jenkins since he would fill a higher priority need asssuming he was healthy and ready to play well. I like the Crowder pick better than the Moss pick based on his physical measurables and much longer starting experience in college however.

[AboveAverage]

No clue, ask me in 5 years.

[thebroncosnation]

Kris IMO is the best DT in the game when he is on and healthy. The problem is that as of the past few years he hasn't been healthy. He blamed his alcoholism on Warren Sapp, and had the shoulder injury and the ACL. Crowder is younger and more durable. Only time will tell.

[SureShot]

I really wanted Jenkins and I think the Broncos di too, however in that situation two deals have to be agreed upon. One with the team and the other with the player. Who knows which was the deal breaker.

[Kaylore]

There's no way to tell.

[Turf Shaman]

I wanted them to pick up Jenkins... having him in the middle would help free up the ends, whomever they may be, and it would also help Warren. It would make the line twice as good because it'd make everyone better (assuming of course that he recovers from his injury and returns to Pro Bowl form).

So if you just ask, who would be better value for a 2nd round pick, all else being equal, obviously it's Jenkins. That being said there are other factors... his salary demands, his health, his conditioning and weight. The main thing to me would be his salary, if the Broncos didn't have enough cap room to sign him long term they probably shouldn't give up a 2nd round draft pick to get him. Other than that concern I'd have done it.

[BroncoBuff]

You are being very presumptuous by assuming the Panthers were willing to trade Jenkins for a low 2nd. Most indications in my neck of the woods (Panther country) is that they were not.

No, it was widely reported - I think there might've even been a quote from Panthers management. They lowered their asking price to a second - that was widely reported.

When he site speeds up, I'll find that info and re-post it here.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

I would have laughed if you had given up a 2nd for a fat piece of **** like Kris Jenkins...props to Shanny. As it is you guys have a very nice pair of DEs.

[BroncoInferno]

No, it was widely reported - I think there might've even been a quote from Panthers management. They lowered their asking price to a second - that was widely reported.

When he site speeds up, I'll find that info and re-post it here.

Local radio stated this morning that they never budged from initial demands.

[Triplelefthook]

i really wanted jenkins and moss on our team.

[TheChamp24]

Heck, what if the Broncos DID offer our 2nd for Kris Jenkins and the Panthers turned it down?
we are basically assuming the Panthers would've took the deal if we offered it.

[Requiem]

This thread is **** since it's based on an assumption #56 was enough to get Kris Jenkins.

[Rascal]

Who knows if we could have picked up for #56, and it's too early to tell. Marcus Thomas may fulfill that need at DT, and be considerably cheaper.

I think we got our DE's of the future in Moss and Crowder, so I'm very happy. Plus we got Thomas who can be an excellent DT if he stays clean.

[NFLBRONCO]

Crowder because of $$$$$$$$$$$$$

[BroncoBuff]

Guys ... it was widely reportd that the Panthers had reduced their demands to a second round pick. Even Schefter said that ... although I think he said a "high" second round pick.

And the Broncos do indeed have enough cap room to sign him. That is widely known and reported. I think nearly $9 million in cap space.

[16-JakE-16]

This thread is **** since it's based on an assumption #56 was enough to get Kris Jenkins.
seriously. broncobuff, your block of crap is based on pure speculation which renders this entire thread just about useless.

[WABronco]

I'll take youth and talent over busted-ass and expensive. I don't care if he's established himself in the league...he's on the decline.

[BroncoBuff]

seriously. broncobuff, your block of crap is based on pure speculation which renders this entire thread just about useless.
Jeez, 16, and the rest of this timid lot ... it was widely reported their demands had dropped:
League sources have been saying for nearly a month that the Panthers have made it known Jenkins is available in a trade. If a deal is going to happen, it will likely come Friday or Saturday as teams get ready for the draft. St. Louis is believed to be interested. The asking price for Jenkins isn't known, but there are indications the Panthers want a second-round draft pick this year and another pick either this year or next.
http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/1494/nonamewe8.jpg
http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/5739/alecgi1.jpg


And if you're so certain the Panthers wanted more than this - JUST PICK JENKINS THEN! Don't use that as an excuse ... it's just a prediction thread - JENKINS vs. CROWDER! Grab 'em hard with one hand and click your choice with the other!

It's amazing how cautious people suddenly become when they know the results will be re-visited in a year, two years and more. It's after 4 pm already, and only 29 people have stones enough to play a hand. I shouldda known better.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

Why are you so high-strung, BroncoBuff?

[BroncoBuff]

I dunno ... I guess I'm a bit shocked and disappointed at how self-important people are regarding the draft. When I signed on last night, I fully expected everybody to be shocked at the trade-up for Jarvis Moss, a guy nobody on this board was propping at 21 - much less 17. Instead, all the revisionist historians were applauding the pick.

Now, don't misunderstand - I'm a BIG Jarvis Moss fan .... now.

But I'm not gonna re-write history to say I wanted him, even at 21. Because I didn't.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

Who would you have drafted? Seemed liked just what you guys needed.

[16-JakE-16]

sorry, man. I would definitely take Jenkins over Crowder but I see no reason to think that it was at all possible, so I don't wanna dwell on it.

[BroncoBuff]

A position of need, sure. And unlike most around here, I readily admit I am no expert. But Crowder's ceiling seems tapped out imho. He started a million games in a row there, lining up alongside an astonishing array of talented teamates.

On the other hand, Jenkins is a proven All-Pro - at a position of even greater need. Pick #56, plus even a 4th next year, was an incredible bargain for the 27-year old All Pro.

I love the Marcus Thomas deal though.

[footstepsfrom#27]

I could care less about the poll...you know my position on Jenkins...but you're poll doesn't acureately portray the true situation, and neither does your conclusion drawn from this quote, where I highlight a different portion:
The asking price for Jenkins isn't known, but there are indications the Panthers want a second-round draft pick this year and another pick either this year or next.
How high of a pick next year? Another #2? What speaks the loudest here is that no other NFL team took the bait despite the credentials of the player. That tells me nobody in the league thought he was worth whatever they were asking for him. The Panthers stated all along they would only trade hiim if they got what they perceived as fair market value. Their definition obviously differs from other teams definition on what that means.

Let's just pick up Walter Thomas or Grady Jackson and move on.

[Killericon]

Who would you have drafted? Seemed liked just what you guys needed.

Alan Branch. I've said all along that our need at DT was our biggest. I never wanted Moss. Sure...I'm gonna give him a chance, but I'm with Broncobuff. A thoroughly disappointing draft.

[BroncoBuff]

I just re-read this thread ... I am a whiny b!tch, aren't I? :~ohyah!:

[MileHighMania]

Weird question... based on what is asked, you're wanting to compare a guy that will be coming off his 9th NFL career and wanting to compare to a guy coming off his 3rd.

I'll take Crowder at that point.

[BroncoBuff]

I'll say one thing ... he sure looks like a nice kid, doesn't he?


http://img255.imageshack.us/img255/9396/alecjl3.jpg

And that's a lotta sacks this past season.

Still ... many were coverage sacks, because Texas was always ahead in games. Plus they had the best secondary in the nation the past couppla years (Huff last year, two 1st rounders this year). And he played next to Frank Okam - a sure-fire 1st-round DT.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

How is this even a legit question. There was never any more than speculation that Jenkins was available and all reports said Carolina wanted a first round choice for him. Would I like Jenkins? - Yes, but it can in no way be tied to the second round pick.

[chaz]

This is not fair at all dude. OBVIOUSLY you go for Jenkins if all things are equal. But the problem is the Broncos would have to agree on a brand new contract in the area of what they are paying Champ Bailey. You can think of it how you want, but I'm saying, Jenkins is something like a 2nd round pick + 8million this year in cap, whereas, Crowder is a 2nd round pick + a couple hundred thousand.

I also can't be dissapointed that Bates wants to go after home grown talent. When we were discussing trade options with New York this year, i was very jealous that they seamed to have limitless impact defensive ends, all of them drafted and groomed.

For me, if you factor in the money, even though obviously Jenkins seems like the much better player, I would have to say that we can't treat him as a real option considering 30 other teams in the NFL had the same opportunity and there isn't a single one of them who couldn't use the services of a guy who was once the most dominating defensive player in the NFL, there must be some reason.

I think the atmosphere in Carolina suggests that if anyone is willing to shell out 8 million this year, they might get him for the same amount of money next year in free agency no matter how well he plays this season, in other words, he's asking for top 5 money, so regardless of what happens over this season, next year Carolina has no choice but to dump him, and he can't possibly cost much more than what he's asking for, and he would be less risky anyway.

agree completely...these were my first thoughts when i read this thread and you already said it all. great post.