All this talk about Bly - What's he worth straight up for a pick?

[baja]

Bly for Pick = ?

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Assuming he really doesn't want to be in Denver, I would jump all over any offer before pick 45 in the draft.

[SoCalBronco]

Perhaps an early 3rd?

[Dagmar]

Early 3rd, late second maybe.

[Kaylore]

Mid second.

[footstepsfrom#27]

Cover corners are tough to find. He's worth more to a team that's close to a title than he is to one whose not since he's 30. On balance I'd say he's worth the #15 pick in the draft straight up. I'm amazed that people don't value him higher for a straight up pick when you consider how hard it is to find guys who can cover one on one in the NFL. You might get a good CB at the #15 spot and you might get one who flops lke Willie Middlebrooks. To the Skins it depends on whether they think last year was an aberation and they're better than they're record shows or not. If I think I'm close to a Superbowl in the next three years and a cover CB is a missing piece, he's worth the 15th IMO.

[maven]

Cover corners are tough to find. He's worth more to a team that's close to a title than he is to one whose not since he's 30. On balance I'd say he's worth the #15 pick in the draft straight up. I'm amazed that people don't value him higher for a straight up pick when you consider how hard it is to find guys who can cover one on one in the NFL. You might get a good CB at the #15 spot and you might get one who flops lke Willie Middlebrooks. To the Skins it depends on whether they think last year was an aberation and they're better than they're record shows or not. If I think I'm close to a Superbowl in the next three years and a cover CB is a missing piece, he's worth the 15th IMO.

A 30 year old CB is worth a 3rd round pick at best. Now when talking about multiple picks/players exchange in a deal, his value will slightly increase if a team really wants him.

[CHANGSTER]

Cover corners are tough to find. He's worth more to a team that's close to a title than he is to one whose not since he's 30. On balance I'd say he's worth the #15 pick in the draft straight up. I'm amazed that people don't value him higher for a straight up pick when you consider how hard it is to find guys who can cover one on one in the NFL. You might get a good CB at the #15 spot and you might get one who flops lke Willie Middlebrooks. To the Skins it depends on whether they think last year was an aberation and they're better than they're record shows or not. If I think I'm close to a Superbowl in the next three years and a cover CB is a missing piece, he's worth the 15th IMO.

I get what you mean but teams just dont give up high picks just like that.

[maven]

I get what you mean but teams just dont give up high picks just like that.

Teams rarely do.

[Atwater His Ass]

You'd be lucky imo to get a high 2nd. Probably a mid 2nd to early 3rd, like everyone is saying.

[footstepsfrom#27]

A 30 year old CB is worth a 3rd round pick at best. Now when talking about multiple picks/players exchange in a deal, his value will slightly increase if a team really wants him.
Free agency has changed some of this IMO.

Consider the fact that a rookie CB drafted 15th in the first round who turns out to be a good player, might not even want to resign with the team that drafted him in three years when his contract runs out, or if he does he may want an obscene amount of money the team's unwilling or unable to pay. That's about the time that Bly has left as a front line player at that position. So a team that drafts a rookie in the mid first round might see that guy walk in 3 years anyway. He spends his first year as just adequate and you don't get his best production on the level of Bly's till his 3rd season.

Which one made the smarter move?

[footstepsfrom#27]

I get what you mean but teams just dont give up high picks just like that.
And teams don't give up Champ Bailey and a 2nd rounder for a runner who came from a system known to artifically pump up stats either do they? ;D

[maven]

Free agency has changed some of this IMO.

Consider the fact that a rookie CB drafted 15th in the first round who turns out to be a good player, might not even want to resign with the team that drafted him in three years when his contract runs out, or if he does he may want an obscene amount of money the team's unwilling or unable to pay. That's about the time that Bly has left as a front line player at that position. So a team that drafts a rookie in the mid first round might see that guy walk in 3 years anyway. He spends his first year as just adequate and you don't get his best production on the level of Bly's till his 3rd season.

Which one made the smarter move?t r

Doesn't matter. Most teams would rather take a chance on a rookie 1st round pick rather than an established player who is good. Almost every team would rather have a rookie with potential than Bly. Dre bly isn't worth as much as some around here think he is.

[spdirty]

I wonder what Champ Bailey would be worth straight up?

[baja]

washington is rumored to want Bly, our 1st, their 3rd traded to us last year and a 3rd next year for their 6th this year and they really want him.

[baja]

I wonder what Champ Bailey would be worth straight up?

What would take for Champ straight up?

[watermock]

I'm not highly motivated to move him, and the blather out of the Wash post was just that. There is absolutely no evidence he's unhappy opposite Champ at all. It doesn't mean we haven't dangled him in front of Snyder for the right deal.

I've said it before...our 21, Bly and give them back their 3rd this year and our 4th next year and keep their 08 4th. That's basically 3 thirds and two 4ths plus the 21 if you factor in the Detroit deal.

What's the point in overpaying the yearly whore?

[footstepsfrom#27]

washington is rumored to want Bly, our 1st, their 3rd traded to us last year and a 3rd next year for their 6th this year and they really want him.
I'm sure they do. You're always going to try to lowball with your first offer. What will they offer right before draft time? Also...they'd like to score a public relations coup to mitigate the damage from the past trades with Denver.

Look at this from another perspective:

We gave up our 2nd last year for a WR who was coming off a pretty significant knee injury, and nearly everyone on this board would make that trade again. Dre Bly is gong to be 30 in May...and Javon Walker will be 29 in October...a difference in age of 17 months which is not that significant...and Bly's not coming off a knee injury like Walker was. What is easier to find... a good #1 CB who can cover man to man or a wide receiver who can gain 1000 yards? No contest...you'll take the cover corner any day.

So the question becomes...is Bly worth about 30 spots in the draft more than Walker given the fact that he's not had a knee injury and he plays a position that's harder to fill?

I'd say he is. Of couse it comes down to a player being whatever somebody's willing to pay. I'd bet the Skins will come down on their demands if we wait. What does Snyder's history tell us he'll do? If they want Bly bad enough we won't have to sacrifice two 3rds plus that #21 to move up to #6. If Bly is worth a mid first, then a single 3rd plus Bly ought to be enough...maybe a 4th in '08 too. But the #21, plus two 3rds is to much when Bly's included in the deal.

[spdirty]

Think all I would take for Champ is Peppers and 3 1sts.

[footstepsfrom#27]

What would take for Champ straight up?
Champ is worth the #6 straight up but this board would explode if we made that deal. Is Bly worth a pick 9 spots lower in a draft where the top talent will drop off well before that point? I think so. Even if 15 is to high...he's certainly worth a late 1st when you compare him to what we gave up for Javon Walker coming off a knee injury.

Part of the reason we're not valuing Bly much is because he played in Detroit...or may because he's never performed in a Denver uniform.

[footstepsfrom#27]

OK...I just checked because I forgot what we gave up for Walker...it was the 37th pick...so I revise my earlier question and ask this: Is Bly worth 22 more spots than Walker when you consider he's only 17 months older, plays a more difficult position to fill, and is not coming off a serious knee injury?

I say yes.

[maven]

I'm sure they do. You're always going to try to lowball with your first offer. What will they offer right before draft time? Also...they'd like to score a public relations coup to mitigate the damage from the past trades with Denver.

Look at this from another perspective:

We gave up our 2nd last year for a WR who was coming off a pretty significant knee injury, and nearly everyone on this board would make that trade again. Dre Bly is gong to be 30 in May...and Javon Walker will be 29 in October...a difference in age of 17 months which is not that significant...and Bly's not coming off a knee injury like Walker was. What is easier to find... a good #1 CB who can cover man to man or a wide receiver who can gain 1000 yards? No contest...you'll take the cover corner any day.

So the question becomes...is Bly worth about 30 spots in the draft more than Walker given the fact that he's not had a knee injury and he plays a position that's harder to fill?

I'd say he is. Of couse it comes down to a player being whatever somebody's willing to pay. I'd bet the Skins will come down on their demands if we wait. What does Snyder's history tell us he'll do? If they want Bly bad enough we won't have to sacrifice two 3rds plus that #21 to move up to #6. If Bly is worth a mid first, then a single 3rd plus Bly ought to be enough...maybe a 4th in '08 too. But the #21, plus two 3rds is to much when Bly's included in the deal.

The rumors about Bly started before the Redskins signed Fred Smoot to a large deal. Ever since the Skins signed Smoot, where have the rumors come from? Newspapers trying to sell papers? Fred Smoot & shawn Springs makes a capable CB tandem. Regardless whether springs declines a paycut, Bly wants to play in Wash, etc. The Skins have a decent CB tandem.

[DomCasual]

I bet we could get Matt Millen to give up the #2 pick for him. I'd take that.

[baja]

I bet we could get Matt Millen to give up the #2 pick for him. I'd take that.

You miss Bob don't you...

[CHANGSTER]

And teams don't give up Champ Bailey and a 2nd rounder for a runner who came from a system known to artifically pump up stats either do they? ;D

Haha. true, but portis was an established player in return and thats the redskins your talkin about, aka. Draft pick outlet.

[Kaylore]

I maintain a mid second. I'd put him at about 400 points on the draft board, give or take.

[watermock]

I honestly pity Tater Tot and Foster Lager in Detroit. Bly has a gold plate for turnovers this year as they will test him. There is absolutely no reason to trade him.

[baja]

I honestly pity Tater Tot and Foster Lager in Detroit. Bly has a gold plate for turnovers this year as they will test him. There is absolutely no reason to trade him.

The question is not rather to trade him but what is he worth

[watermock]

I maintain a mid second. I'd put him at about 400 points on the draft board, give or take.

Bly was taken because of DWill's untimely death. As big as he played, he wasn't the corner Bly is. DWill surprised all of us with his incredible grit...I was a huge fan, but he struggled more in his sophmore season. I would of loved to have Bly, Champ and DWill in the nickle, and moving the Fox to FS...alas, it wasn't meant to be I guess.

Unless Wash or Detroit want to assume the position, I'm fine where we are. :flower:

[cutthemdown]

you guys are crazy whatever we trade Bly for has to be worth 2 starters and a flopped 5 6 round pick. Broncos won't trade Bly for anything less the a first round pick. You can take that to the bank period.

[SonOfLe-loLang]

I don't see why you'd want to give up a pro bowl level corner or a 3rd round pick. Shall we go through the list of Broncos 3rd rounders that failed to pan out? Even if we only have him for a year, that's worth more to me than an extra 3rd rounder. If we keep him, he'll play. He won't tank it in a contract year, he's not dumb. And for those who say he's worth a first rounder, straight up, he's not. While he's good, he's aging, small, and looking for a big contract.

[footstepsfrom#27]

Somebody respond to the Walker comparison please.

[wabbit]

Moot point at this time of year...teams become anal about draft picks this close to the selection process...especially high draft picks.

Teams seem almost cavalier with selections late in the training camp/pre-season process however, about the time they sense that 'one player away' kind of fantasy.

[baja]

Somebody respond to the Walker comparison please.

OK we took a big chance on Walker as it turns out we raped GB.

Bly on the other hand is a risk taking corner that could well be a one year rental that has been rumored to have made noise about wanting to play on the East coast only these issues hurt his value.

[footstepsfrom#27]

OK we took a big chance on Walker as it turns out we raped GB.

Bly on the other hand is a risk taking corner that could well be a one year rental that has been rumored to have made noise about wanting to play on the East coast only these issues hurt his value.
That's not really the point I raised. He's RUMORED to want to be in Washington...may not be true at this point now...but if he's traded that is probably where he may wind up. Springs has a huge contract the Skins want out of and he's not as good as Bly. Smoot certainly isn't either. My point is...most people think we made a good deal giving the #37 pick in the draft for a receiver coming off knee surgery...why isn't a cover corner who is NOT coming off knee surgery worth a move up of 22 spots when he's only 17 months older than Walker? It's much tougher to find those guys than it is to find receivers.

[baja]

That's not really the point I raised. He's RUMORED to want to be in Washington...may not be true at this point now...but if he's traded that is probably where he may wind up. Springs has a huge contract the Skins want out of and he's not as good as Bly. Smoot certainly isn't either. My point is...most people think we made a good deal giving the #37 pick in the draft for a receiver coming off knee surgery...why isn't a cover corner who is NOT coming off knee surgery worth a move up of 22 spots when he's only 17 months older than Walker? It's much tougher to find those guys than it is to find receivers.

Simple Bly is not nearly as good at his position as Walker is at his.

[-Slap-]

I don't see why you'd want to give up a pro bowl level corner or a 3rd round pick. Shall we go through the list of Broncos 3rd rounders that failed to pan out? Even if we only have him for a year, that's worth more to me than an extra 3rd rounder. If we keep him, he'll play. He won't tank it in a contract year, he's not dumb. And for those who say he's worth a first rounder, straight up, he's not. While he's good, he's aging, small, and looking for a big contract.

The most rational viewpoint so far.

[footstepsfrom#27]

Simple Bly is not nearly as good at his position as Walker is at his.
I'm not sure that's true. He played on a terrible team in Detroit. Do we really know how good he'd be on this defense opposite Bailey? Both players have been to the pro bowl...neither is considered the best at thier position though. I want to see him perform here before I say he's not as good as Walker at his position.

[baja]

I'm not sure that's true. He played on a terrible team in Detroit. Do we really know how good he'd be on this defense opposite Bailey? Both players have been to the pro bowl...neither is considered the best at thier position though. I want to see him perform here before I say he's not as good as Walker at his position.

That's fair enough but remember you are claiming he is worth the 15th pick and now you are saying wait and see if he is good...

[footstepsfrom#27]

That's fair enough but remember you are claiming he is worth the 15th pick and now you are saying wait and see if he is good...
Actually what I'm saying is that he's probably worth more than we'd get for him. He's already proven he's good...his numbers speak for themselves...but I think he's likely to be better here than he was in Detroit. I think he's worth the #15 all other things considered, but I'm not sure we could get that...probably not...and even less likely if it's perceived that we're dealing with a player who doesn't want to be here and one who is going to be a free agent next year again. If a team thinks they're a legitimate contender and he's one of the last missing pieces then he's certainly worth the #15...if you're the Houston Texans he's not since you want to build with youth.

[baja]

Who is he worth a 15th over all to?

[footstepsfrom#27]

Who is he worth a 15th over all to?
He's worth whatever somebody's willing to pay...like anything else. But you're question was phrased as a hypthetical...or at least I took it that way...so I think hypothetically speaking he's worth a #15...can we get that? Doubtful. Especially since the stuff came out about him not wanting to be here. In the real world the answer is he's worth that to a team that perceives it's close to a championship and sees an experienced corner as one of the final missing pieces if he's at or near pro bowl quality.

The next best answer is that Danny Snyder's involved here...or rumored to be...so let's hope for another rip off job if he gets moved. ;D

[baja]

Well if it is doubtful anyone would give up the 15th how did you decide he is worth a 15th pick.

I can say Al Wilson is worth a first round pick but no one will pay that for him would I not be talking gibberish?

I know you like to be right Steps but come on admit you valued him at an unrealistic number and let it go at that... ;D

[CBF1]

Dre Bly is worth alot more than anyone is willing to give up.

A 3 time probowl Corner Back -versus- a draft pick that might turn out like a guy named Foster, Nash, Lelie, Pierce (insert name of other bust 1st or 2nd round pick here) Forget age here, Bly is in the prime of his career and some of you think that is only worth a mid 2nd or 3 round pick.... You are nuts.

Bly has more value to me than Javon Walker. Someone remind me how many Pro Bowls has Walker been too?

Man I can not wait for the season to begin and people stop the madness called posting!

[watermock]

First, I believe Bly went to 2 Pro Bowls, and Walker was coming off a Pro Bowl season when he tore his ACL. So the argument has no foundation.

I wouldn't call 1068 yards, 8 TD's and zero turnovers anything less than pro bowl numbers honestly. I never saw him drop a pass all year.

[baja]

He did drop a couple toward the end of the season none the less he is a great receiver and will be a huge asset to the Bronco's O for many a season.

[footstepsfrom#27]

Well if it is doubtful anyone would give up the 15th how did you decide he is worth a 15th pick.
I took your question at face value..."what is he worth?"...not "what will somebody give for him". I bought my daughter a Toyota Camry this week and got a very good deal...it's "worth" more than I paid, but you could also say it's only worth what somebody's willing to pay...in the end I don't care since it left my pocket better than I thought it would.
I can say Al Wilson is worth a first round pick but no one will pay that for him would I not be talking gibberish?

I know you like to be right Steps but come on admit you valued him at an unrealistic number and let it go at that... ;D
We all like to be right. ;D That aside...I think he is worth the #15 for two reasons; 1) corners with his skill are tough to come by, more so than receivers, and we're all happy with the way the Walker deal went, and 2) at #15 in the 1st round if you take a corner there it's possible you get an excellent player and it's possible you get a bust. The youth factor to me is mitigated by the risk of finding the next Middlebrooks or Oneal, so I place the shorter career for Bly at roughly equal to the risk of getting a bust in a CB drafted #15 in round 1.

You asked for my opinion...that's my opinion. I don't see it as a right/wrong question...there is no right answer. I'm telling you what he'd be worth to me if I were a GM.

[cutthemdown]

Somebody respond to the Walker comparison please.

walker was injured and a risk therefore he had reduced value. Plus he had stated he would never play for GB again. Bly has not taken a stance like that. If Walker were to be available for a trade now he would for sure be worth as much as Dieon Branch which was a first round pick.

[Kaylore]

You asked for my opinion...that's my opinion. I don't see it as a right/wrong question...there is no right answer. .
No, actually there is. There is no current GM in the NFL who would give up a top 15 pick for Dre' Bly, therefore he is not worth that. Just because you think he is, doesn't make it so. You can have the opinion that your one dollar bill is really worth a million, but if no one else agrees, it is just worth one dollar.

[Kaylore]

walker was injured and a risk therefore he had reduced value. Plus he had stated he would never play for GB again. Bly has not taken a stance like that. If Walker were to be available for a trade now he would for sure be worth as much as Dieon Branch which was a first round pick.

Yeah, that's when the laws of supply and demand come into play. The Seahawks were desperate and so they went for it. Branch is good, but there will be three receivers in this draft that will have more productive careers than Deion Branch. Walker is superior to Branch but as you said all those "other factors" added reluctance and reduced the demand.

It only takes one guy to make a man expensive (Gibbs for Portis) or just a limited supply (Alex Smith going number one). If Dre' Bly was the only corner on the market, then he could very well be a top 15 pick, especially if there was a team that really, really needed one. If Smoot wasn't snatched up by the 'Skins, then I promise you that Danny Boy would be "all up ons".

[footstepsfrom#27]

walker was injured and a risk therefore he had reduced value. Plus he had stated he would never play for GB again. Bly has not taken a stance like that. If Walker were to be available for a trade now he would for sure be worth as much as Dieon Branch which was a first round pick.
I agree...which also makes my point, that top flight corners are tougher to find than receivers, so that IMO makes Bly worth a #15.

[watermock]

Actually a high second I don't think he will be traded.

[footstepsfrom#27]

No, actually there is. There is no current GM in the NFL who would give up a top 15 pick for Dre' Bly, therefore he is not worth that. Just because you think he is, doesn't make it so. You can have the opinion that your one dollar bill is really worth a million, but if no one else agrees, it is just worth one dollar.
First of all, you don't know if there's a GM who would pay that so that's hardly a valild point. Second, if I gave you a crystal ball when we drafted either Middlebrooks or Oneal...both taken slightly later but close enough to make the point...and I asked you if you'd prefer what you saw in their futures or Dre Bly right now, unless you're a complete idiot you'd take Bly...and so would NFL GM's.

Unlike legal tender that has fixed value...value in this case, much like beauty...is in the eye of the beholder. Some people in here suggest we don't need to draft runners or O-line guys in the first round since we have a system that develops them from later in the draft. Fine...use that same logic to examine our failed rate of return with defensive backs...so much that we had to draft 3 in a row just to be sure we could hit on one of them. A top notch corner is a lot more valuable than most other positions and more necessary for success, so if you can't find one with the draft, you trade for one. In the current free agency market, the youth factor of a 22 year old rookie is somewhat negated because you don't know if he'll still be on your team after his contract runs out. Bly is exhibit A in this regard. So why not choose 4 years of very good production that barring injury is almost a sure thing vs. the bust factor and the other unknown...the player leaving in 3 years anyway?

It's all in how you look at it and who looks at it...but I don't see it as a right or wrong question since value in this context is fluid, unlike the example you used where it's not.

[Kaylore]

Actually a high second I don't think he will be traded.

Yay for you Mock! You finally answered the question in the poll.

And I think you're right. Let him sit and we get contract-year play and he'll help us win some games. Then we can sign him to a long term deal, franchise him and keep him, franchise him and trade him, or let him walk and sign with someone else and get a nice compensatory pick the following year. Either way, we have wiggle room and can let him sit.

[Kaylore]

It's all in how you look at it and who looks at it...but I don't see it as a right or wrong question since value in this context is fluid, unlike the example you used where it's not.
It's not "right or wrong" it's so and not so. It's really micro-economic situation where players and picks are the commodities. Bly does not have that value. They've reported the Broncos being offered a fourth rounder from the Saints and a package deal with several picks to get Washington's sixth overall. The latter has Bly at about 132 points. If someone was offering a top 15 pick for Bly, we'd know about it. No one is offering even my estimated value, which is a mid second for him at this time, so he doesn't have that value.

[footstepsfrom#27]

It's not "right or wrong" it's so and not so. It's really micro-economic situation where players and picks are the commodities. Bly does not have that value. They've reported the Broncos being offered a fourth rounder from the Saints and a package deal with several picks to get Washington's sixth overall. The latter has Bly at about 132 points. If someone was offering a top 15 pick for Bly, we'd know about it. No one is offering even my estimated value, which is a mid second for him at this time, so he doesn't have that value.
Key words there are "at this time"...ie; right after the rumor sprouted that he didn't want to be here. Of course teams will offer crap when they hear that...what does that tell you about what they'll offer later if it turns out not to be true? We gave up a former starting OT and a 1000 yard runner who didn't fit our system...before we knew anything about his desire not to be here...so is that better than a 4th from New Orleans or not? Even if Foster bombs in Detroit is is.

So would you rather have Bly at his current age or Oneal/Middlebrooks as rookies? ;D

[watermock]

He has never said a word, and neither has his agent...your a fool.

[footstepsfrom#27]

He has never said a word, and neither has his agent...your a fool.
I said, "the rumor started". Do you see any place where I said he said it? In point of fact several people have said he did say it but of course you know what he said better than they do since you spend 24 hours a day posting on this board.

Now tell us all about what Beezer's doing and then go sleep it off.

[watermock]

You don't know dick.

[footstepsfrom#27]

You don't know dick.
That's your comeback? BAAAHAAAA! :rofl:

I know alcohol poisoning when I see it...sad really.

[watermock]

I said, "the rumor started". Do you see any place where I said he said it? In point of fact several people have said he did say it but of course you know what he said better than they do since you spend 24 hours a day posting on this board.

Now tell us all about what Beezer's doing and then go sleep it off.

so your concerned about my cat are you? STFU

The rumor started? You idiot...It started at thw Washington Post.

You don't have to send it anywhere, it's allready DOA.

Why don't you name the several people that BlY told he wanted to be traded to Washington.

Your an idiot. Bly hasn't asked for a trade. He said it to several people but noone would mention it correct? Hour holding your balls.

Bly never said he wanted to be traded once.

[-Slap-]

He did drop a couple toward the end of the season none the less he is a great receiver and will be a huge asset to the Bronco's O for many a season.

Yeah, for example, the pass at the end of the Frisco game that would have given us the win in regulation.

[footstepsfrom#27]

so your concerned about my cat are you? STFU

The rumor started? You idiot...It started at thw Washington Post.

You don't have to send it anywhere, it's allready DOA.

Why don't you name the several people that BlY told he wanted to be traded to Washington.

Your an idiot. Bly hasn't asked for a trade. He said it to several people but noone would mention it correct? Hour holding your balls.

Bly never said he wanted to be traded once.
I never said he did you nitwit...but I know you have no idea if he did or not anyway. I said it was a rumor that could likely effect his perceived trade value since other teams might get the idea we'd be dealing from a position of weakness with a player who wanted to leave.

You have the reading comprehension capability of a 7 year old...a slow 7 year old at that.