Any U.S. Strike Might Not Destroy Iran Nuclear Sites

[Bronco_Beerslug]

I think I mentioned this a couple times now about how powerless we really are when it comes to demanding Iran not produce nuclear weapons.

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Any U.S. strike might not destroy Iran nuclear sites (http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070223/ts_nm/iran_usa_military_dc_2)
By Kristin Roberts

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Any U.S. attack against Iran could involve thousands of sorties and missile launches lasting weeks, but it still would not eliminate the country's nuclear program, U.S. military officials and analysts say.

A strike -- something the Pentagon insists is not planned -- would be hampered by lack of intelligence on the number and location of nuclear facilities dispersed throughout Iran, the analysts said.

And the most sophisticated U.S. "bunker-buster" bombs might be unable to dig deep enough to reach buried, hardened nuclear sites, according to analysts and defense officials.

"It is highly unlikely all the critical sites are known to U.S. and Western intelligence services, so parts of the program would doubtless survive, perhaps even the most critical elements," said Bruce Riedel, a former National Security Council and Defense Department official, and now a Brookings Institution analyst.

An air strike, raised as the most likely option if any military action were ordered, would at best set Iran's nuclear program back a few years.

"The people who are most optimistic favor it because they think it will delay, not derail, the Iranian nuclear program," said Justin Logan, a Cato Institute analyst in Washington.

Many officials and military analysts say a U.S. attack on Iran is unlikely. The U.S. military is stretched thin by wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and there is little international support for it.
CONT.

[cutthemdown]

LOL cmon beerslug we could knock that whole country back into the stone age in 3 weeks. Don't think we couldn't. They of course could have some operations survive a massive bombing but for sure we could bomb them every few years and keep them from having the nuclear power plants needed to ever extract plutonium. As far as the Uranium based program they have going now they prob couldln't destroy all of nantanz mountain facility but they could really damage it im sure. Hopefully it won't come to that and Iran will give up looking for Nukes in exchange for other things. Thats what Lybia did so there is a precedent even though Iran is persian and much different in thinking then the Lybians. I agree though no missle attack alone will ever completly destroy a countries nuclear program.

[Bronco_Beerslug]

LOL cmon beerslug we could knock that whole country back into the stone age in 3 weeks. .
Really? Then what?

[Bronco Bob]

Many officials and military analysts say a U.S. attack on Iran is unlikely. The U.S. military is stretched thin by wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, and there is little international support for it.
CONT.

The Navy has hardly been used in the Iraq war and the Navy would be
ideally suited to the sorts of operations that would need to be carried
out in attacking Iran. You only need an army if you plan on defeating
another army and then occupying a country. Not saying attacking
Iran is a good idea or that it would accomplish the intended goals.
But this idea that the military has been so degraded by Iraq as to be
useless has been a bit overplayed. There is still plenty of punch left.

[cutthemdown]

Really? Then what?

then you reload and tell them don't try and rebuild nuclear facilities or we will bomb you again. There is no negotiating with these people they only understand force. Thats how their whole society is set up. They force the people to live a certain way. It's how they think. They will never respond to diplomacy. They only respond to the threat of military action. Beerslug I'm curious do you know what Obama's plan is to stop Iran? Or do you think we should just say screw it and let them do it?

[cutthemdown]

The Navy has hardly been used in the Iraq war and the Navy would be
ideally suited to the sorts of operations that would need to be carried
out in attacking Iran. You only need an army if you plan on defeating
another army and then occupying a country. Not saying attacking
Iran is a good idea or that it would accomplish the intended goals.
But this idea that the military has been so degraded by Iraq as to be
useless has been a bit overplayed. There is still plenty of punch left.

exactly I'm not saying it has to come to attacking Iran. But any attack on Iran would be fierce and effective. Hopefully it won't come to that. We can't however let them succeed in building a bomb.

[Bronco_Beerslug]

then you reload and tell them don't try and rebuild nuclear facilities or we will bomb you again.
Fantastic! So then what do you do with the 10s of thousands of newly created terrorists (who have one agenda, to kill Americans) because you attacked yet another Muslim country?

[Bronco Bob]

For what it's worth, an article I read in rense.com:


Day One -
The War With Iran

By Douglas Herman
A Rense.com Exclusive
1-9-5

The war began as planned. The Israeli pilots took off well before dawn and streaked across Lebanon and northern Iraq, high above Kirkuk. Flying US-made F-15 and F-16s, the Israelis separated over the mountains of western Iran, the pilots gesturing a last minute show of confidence in their mission, maintaining radio silence.

Just before the sun rose over Tehran, moments before the Muslim call to prayer, the missiles struck their targets. While US Air Force AWACS planes circled overhead--listening, watching, recording--heavy US bombers followed minutes later. Bunker-busters and mini-nukes fell on dozens of targets while Iranian anti-aircraft missiles sped skyward.

The ironically named Bushehr nuclear power plant crumbled to dust. Russian technicians and foreign nationals scurried for safety. Most did not make it.

Targets in Saghand and Yazd, all of them carefully chosen many months before by Pentagon planners, were destroyed. The uranium enrichment facility in Natanz; a heavy water plant and radioisotope facility in Arak; the Ardekan Nuclear Fuel Unit; the Uranium Conversion Facility and Nuclear Technology Center in Isfahan; were struck simultaneously by USAF and Israeli bomber groups.

The Tehran Nuclear Research Center, the Tehran Molybdenum, Iodine and Xenon Radioisotope Production Facility, the Tehran Jabr Ibn Hayan Multipurpose Laboratories, the Kalaye Electric Company in the Tehran suburbs were destroyed.

Iranian fighter jets rose in scattered groups. At least those Iranian fighter planes that had not been destroyed on the ground by swift and systematic air strikes from US and Israeli missiles. A few Iranian fighters even launched missiles, downing the occasional attacker, but American top guns quickly prevailed in the ensuing dogfights.

The Iranian air force, like the Iranian navy, never really knew what hit them. Like the slumbering US sailors at Pearl Harbor, the pre-dawn, pre-emptive attack wiped out fully half the Iranian defense forces in a matter of hours.

By mid-morning, the second and third wave of US/Israeli raiders screamed over the secondary targets. The only problem now, the surprising effectiveness of the Iranian missile defenses. The element of surprise lost, US and Israeli warplanes began to fall from the skies in considerable numbers to anti-aircraft fire.

At 7:35 AM, Tehran time, the first Iranian anti-ship missile destroyed a Panamanian oil tanker, departing from Kuwait and bound for Houston. Launched from an Iranian fighter plane, the Exocet split the ship in half and set the ship ablaze in the Strait of Hormuz. A second and third tanker followed, black smoke billowing from the broken ships before they blew up and sank. By 8:15 AM, all ship traffic on the Persian Gulf had ceased.

US Navy ships, ordered earlier into the relative safety of the Indian Ocean, south of their base in Bahrain, launched counter strikes. Waves of US fighter planes circled the burning wrecks in the bottleneck of Hormuz but the Iranian fighters had fled.

At 9 AM, Eastern Standard Time, many hours into the war, CNN reported a squadron of suicide Iranian fighter jets attacking the US Navy fleet south of Bahrain. Embedded reporters aboard the ships--sending live feeds directly to a rapt audience of Americans just awakening--reported all of the Iranian jets destroyed, but not before the enemy planes launched dozens of Exocet and Sunburn anti-ship missiles. A US aircraft carrier, cruiser and two destroyers suffered direct hits. The cruiser blew up and sank, killing 600 men. The aircraft carrier sank an hour later.

By mid-morning, every military base in Iran was partially or wholly destroyed. Sirens blared and fires blazed from hundreds of fires. Explosions rocked Tehran and the electrical power failed. The Al Jazeerah news station in Tehran took a direct hit from a satellite bomb, leveling the entire block.

At 9:15 AM, Baghdad time, the first Iranian missile struck the Green Zone. For the next thirty minutes a torrent of missiles landed on GPS coordinates carefully selected by Shiite militiamen with cell phones positioned outside the Green Zone and other permanent US bases. Although US and Israeli bomber pilots had destroyed 90% of the Iranian missiles, enough Shahabs remained to fully destroy the Green Zone, the Baghdad airport, and a US Marine base. Thousands of unsuspecting US soldiers died in the early morning barrage. Not surprisingly, CNN and Fox withheld the great number of casualties from American viewers.

By 9:30 AM, gas stations on the US east coast began to raise their prices. Slowly at first and then altogether in a panic, the prices rose. $4 a gallon, and then $5 and then $6, the prices skyrocketed. Worried motorists, rushing from work, roared into the nearest gas station, radios blaring the latest reports of the pre-emptive attack on Iran. While fistfights broke out in gas stations everywhere, the third Middle Eastern war had begun.

In Washington DC, the spin began minutes after the first missile struck its intended target. The punitive strike--not really a war said the harried White House spokesman--would further democracy and peace in the Middle East. Media pundits mostly followed the party line. By ridding Iran of weapons of mass destruction, Donald Rumsfeld declared confidently on CNN, Iran might follow in the footsteps of Iraq, and enjoy the hard won fruits of freedom.

The president scheduled a speech at 2 PM. Gas prices rose another two dollars before then. China and Japan threatened to dump US dollars. Gold rose $120 an ounce. The dollar plummeted against the Euro.

CNN reported violent, anti-American protests in Paris, London, Rome, Berlin and Dublin. Fast food franchises throughout Europe, carrying American corporate logos, were firebombed.

A violent coup toppled the pro-American Pakistan president. On the New York Stock Exchange, prices fell in a frenzy of trading--except for the major petroleum producers. A single, Iranian Shahab missile struck Tel Aviv, destroying an entire city block. Israel vowed revenge, and threatened a nuclear strike on Tehran, before a hastily called UN General Assembly in New York City eased tensions.

An orange alert in New York City suddenly reddened to a full-scale terror alarm when a package detonated on a Manhattan subway. Mayor Bloomberg declared martial law. Governor Pataki ordered the New York National Guard fully mobilized, mobilizing what few national guardsmen remained in the state.

President Bush looked shaken at 2 PM. The scroll below the TV screen reported Persian Gulf nations halting production of oil until the conflict could be resolved peacefully. Venezuelan president, Hugo Chavez, announced a freeze in oil deliveries to the US would begin immediately. Tony Blair offered to mediate peace negotiations, between the US and Israel and Iran, but was resoundingly rejected.

By 6 PM, Eastern Standard Time, gas prices had stabilized at just below $10 a gallon. A Citgo station in Texas, near Fort Sam Houston Army base, was firebombed. No one claimed responsibility. Terrorism was not ruled out.

At sunset, the call to prayer--in Tehran, Baghdad, Islamabad, Ankara, Jerusalem, Jakarta, Riyadh--sounded uncannily like the buzzing of enraged bees.

----------------------------------------------------

USAF veteran, Douglas Herman correctly predicted the aftermath of the attack on Iraq in his column: Shock & Awe Followed by Block-To-Block. A Rense contributer, he is the author of The Guns of Dallas, available at Amazon.com. Contact him at douglasherman7@yahoo.com.

[Spider]

Fantastic! So then what do you do with the 10s of thousands of newly created terrorists (who have one agenda, to kill Americans) because you attacked yet another Muslim country?

Give em tickets to disney land ???

[Bronco Bob]

Give em tickets to disney land ???

Say the worst case scenario comes to pass and the Iranians succeed
in shutting down the Straight of Hormuz and fuel shot up to $10 a
gallon. How would you be able to deal with that as far as making
a living?

[Spider]

Say the worst case scenario comes to pass and the Iranians succeed
in shutting down the Straight of Hormuz and fuel shot up to $10 a
gallon. How would you be able to deal with that as far as making
a living?

fuel sur charge , what we have now .........

[cutthemdown]

Say the worst case scenario comes to pass and the Iranians succeed
in shutting down the Straight of Hormuz and fuel shot up to $10 a
gallon. How would you be able to deal with that as far as making
a living?

No way our economy could survive a 10 dollar a gallon gas price.

[Spider]

No way our economy could survive a 10 dollar a gallon gas price.

Yes we could it wouldnt be pretty ,( the #'s are not exact , just a rough estimate and guideline to follow here ) here is how it would work ....... i get a load fuel is 10.00 per gallon , I charge an extra 3.25 per mile over my going rate making the cost pretty close to 7.00 per mile , the company then passes the cost onto you like they do now , only the cost is broke down over several items , for example pop 5.50 a case would be 6.50 .........etc

[cutthemdown]

Bronco Bob anyone can write a story!!!!!! What a bunch of crap. First of all the Iranians would never shoot down our jets in large numbers. We have radar evading planes that they simpley could not deal with. As far as the rest of the persian gulf halting oil sales they would be so poor in a matter of months their whole countries would shut down and they would have nothing to eat etc etc. If you think the terrorist don't already hate un enough to attack our subways then you are crazy. We could never attack another muslim country agian and they would still hate us. If we bomb Iran it will be because we had no other choice and they wouldn't stop trying to produce a nuclear bomb.

[cutthemdown]

[QUOTE=§Pide®;1492073]Yes we could it wouldnt be pretty ,( the #'s are not exact , just a rough estimate and guideline to follow here ) here is how it would work ....... i get a load fuel is 10.00 per gallon , I charge an extra 3.25 per mile over my going rate making the cost pretty close to 7.00 per mile , the company then passes the cost onto you like they do now , only the cost is broke down over several items , for example pop 5.50 a case would be 6.50 .........etc[/QUOTE

We would be screwed if truckers had to pay 10 dollars a gallon.

[Spider]

We would be screwed if truckers had to pay 10 dollars a gallon.

well things would cost alot more luxeury Items like Plasma TV's wouldnt be in every home , people would start growing gardens, alot more baking instead of premade food , but like everything else Shít rolls down hill .......

[cutthemdown]

well things would cost alot more luxeury Items like Plasma TV's wouldnt be in every home , people would start growing gardens, alot more baking instead of premade food , but like everything else Shít rolls down hill .......

truckers would be sitting at home and stores would be empty and closing.

[Spider]

truckers would be sitting at home and stores would be empty and closing.

naw , I remember hearing the same thing 10 years ago , or in the 70's during the big gas crunch ,Just like anything else , the price gets passed on to the consumer , and if the consumer cant pay , then the state gives out food stamps , and ups the price of taxes to pay for it .......... Vicious circle , like I said it wouldnt be pretty , but it wouldnt kill us either

[cutthemdown]

naw , I remember hearing the same thing 10 years ago , or in the 70's during the big gas crunch ,Just like anything else , the price gets passed on to the consumer , and if the consumer cant pay , then the state gives out food stamps , and ups the price of taxes to pay for it .......... Vicious circle , like I said it wouldnt be pretty , but it wouldnt kill us either

Of course we would survive somehow but our economy would be in shambles. I stand by that.

[Bronco Bob]

Bronco Bob anyone can write a story!!!!!! What a bunch of crap. First of all the Iranians would never shoot down our jets in large numbers. We have radar evading planes that they simpley could not deal with.

F-18s have no stealth technology, which is the type of plane that
would most likely be used. And there aren't enough of the planes
that do have stealth technology to carry out a massive bombing
campaign.



As far as the rest of the persian gulf halting oil sales they would be so poor in a matter of months their whole countries would shut down and they would have nothing to eat etc etc.


It's not like they would have any choice in the matter. Once the Straight
of Hormuz is shut down nothing gets out of the Persian Gulf.
Look at a map. Look at where the oil nations are, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Oman, Bahrain, Qatar.


If you think the terrorist don't already hate un enough to attack our subways then you are crazy. We could never attack another muslim country agian and they would still hate us.


Maybe, maybe not. It would give them even more incentive none the less.


If we bomb Iran it will be because we had no other choice and they wouldn't stop trying to produce a nuclear bomb.

Maybe, maybe not. Is there any independent proof that Iran is really
intending to build a bomb? Or is this just another case of neo-con nation
building using this as a pretext to attack just like Iraq's supposed
plans to build nuclear weapons. You do remember all the talk about
yellow cake and mushroom clouds prior to the invasion of Iraq, don't you?
Although that eventually proved bogus, it was enough to get a war started.
And another question. North Korea has already built a bomb, several
of them, and has even tested one. Why isn't Bush attacking them?
Instead he is promising to sell NK oil in exchange for getting rid of
their bombs. And yet Bush is ready to attack Iran just because maybe
5 or 10 years from now they might have a bomb. Even though Iran
says they have no plans on building a bomb.

[Bronco_Beerslug]

Bronco Bob anyone can write a story!!!!!! What a bunch of crap. First of all the Iranians would never shoot down our jets in large numbers. We have radar evading planes that they simpley could not deal with. As far as the rest of the persian gulf halting oil sales they would be so poor in a matter of months their whole countries would shut down and they would have nothing to eat etc etc. If you think the terrorist don't already hate un enough to attack our subways then you are crazy. We could never attack another muslim country agian and they would still hate us. If we bomb Iran it will be because we had no other choice and they wouldn't stop trying to produce a nuclear bomb.Where would those planes have to come from? In case you haven't heard Iran is stocked to the hilt with missile technology to attack an airborne assault and any carriers in the gulf.

Just like N. Korea, we don't have the right to tell any country they can't defend themselves.

[cutthemdown]

Where would those planes have to come from? In case you haven't heard Iran is stocked to the hilt with missile technology to attack an airborne assault and any carriers in the gulf.

Just like N. Korea, we don't have the right to tell any country they can't defend themselves.

so your plan would be to just let them do it? Bush couldn't do anything military wise vs N Korea because they built their bomb under Clinton and now they have that deterent. America has the right to try and stop Iran. Iran has the right to try and do what they want. This is just how world works if they can stand up to America and get Nukes, take over the power role in the mideast, force Saudi Arabia and Egypt to go nuclear as well, that is their right. But we have a right to try and stop them. I'm not sure what rule book you are quoting that puts forth what rights countries have but it's always been the stronger country exerts its might to improve the lives of it's citizens or to maintain the power. By the way we have bombs that could completely knock out all the power in Iran. Nothing would work. They wouldn't shoot down more then 20 jets if they were lucky. By that time we would have destroyed all the radar installations. By the way centrifuges like the ones Iran is building are really only good to make bombs. Russia already offered them the type of fuel needed for the nuclear power plants and they turned that down. They want to enrich. They want to build a bomb. We want to stop them.

[cutthemdown]

It's not like they would have any choice in the matter. Once the Straight
of Hormuz is shut down nothing gets out of the Persian Gulf.
Look at a map. Look at where the oil nations are, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait,
Oman, Bahrain, Qatar.

which is why those countries will support Iran not getting to build a bomb.

[Bronco_Beerslug]

so your plan would be to just let them do it? Bush couldn't do anything military wise vs N Korea because they built their bomb under Clinton BS!


and now they have that deterent. America has the right to try and stop Iran. Iran has the right to try and do what they want. This is just how world works if they can stand up to America and get Nukes, take over the power role in the mideast, force Saudi Arabia and Egypt to go nuclear as well, that is their right. But we have a right to try and stop them. Why?


I'm not sure what rule book you are quoting that puts forth what rights countries have but it's always been the stronger country exerts its might to improve the lives of it's citizens or to maintain the power. By the way we have bombs that could completely knock out all the power in Iran. Nothing would work. They wouldn't shoot down more then 20 jets if they were lucky. By that time we would have destroyed all the radar installations. By the way centrifuges like the ones Iran is building are really only good to make bombs. Russia already offered them the type of fuel needed for the nuclear power plants and they turned that down. They want to enrich. They want to build a bomb. We want to stop them.You really don't have clue when it comes to the military strengths and weaknesses of both countries. I suggest you read up at sites like Janes to get a better understanding.

And like I said, attacking another ME country that is absolutely NO THREAT to us would be a blunder on the scale of Iraq, only bigger.

[Bronco Bob]

so your plan would be to just let them do it? Bush couldn't do anything military wise vs N Korea because they built their bomb under Clinton and now they have that deterent.

WRONG!!!
The North Koreans didn't even restart their reactor until after Bush made
his idiotic "axis of evil" speech. And the bombs were built from plutonium
they processed out from that reactor core months later.

By the way centrifuges like the ones Iran is building are really only good to make bombs. Russia already offered them the type of fuel needed for the nuclear power plants and they turned that down.


Bull****. Where did you pick up this little gem? That so ludicrous as to be
laughable. All a centrifuge does is separate the heavy and light uranium out.
The enrichment come from repeatedly running more and more enriched uranium
through it. At 4% you have reactor fuel. At 90% you have bomb grade
uranium. There is no such thing as a bomb making centrifuge and
a reactor making centrifuge. It just depends on how many times the
process is repeated for a given batch of uranium.

[Spider]

so your plan would be to just let them do it? Bush couldn't do anything military wise vs N Korea because they built their bomb under Clinton and now they have that deterent.

In case you havent heard , this is wrong ;D