Experts: Latest Climate Report Too Rosy

[Spider]

http://www.trib.com/ap/headlines/d8muf17g0.txt

http://www.trib.com/content/articles/2007/01/28/ap/headlines/d8muf17g0.jpg
An ice lake is seen in the Greenland ice cap, in this Aug. 17, 2005, file photo. Scientists say the vast icy landscape is thinning, and many blame global warming. (AP Photo/John McConnico/FILE)
Experts: Latest Climate Report Too Rosy
By SETH BORENSTEIN Sunday, January 28, 2007

An ice lake is seen in the Greenland ice cap, in this Aug. 17, 2005, file photo. Scientists say the vast icy landscape is thinning, and many blame global warming. (AP Photo/John McConnico/FILE)

WASHINGTON - Later this week in Paris, climate scientists will issue a dire forecast for the planet that warns of slowly rising sea levels and higher temperatures.

But that may be the sugarcoated version.

Early and changeable drafts of their upcoming authoritative report on climate change foresee smaller sea level rises than were projected in 2001 in the last report. Many top U.S. scientists reject these rosier numbers. Those calculations don't include the recent, and dramatic, melt-off of big ice sheets in two crucial locations:

They "don't take into account the gorillas _ Greenland and Antarctica," said Ohio State University earth sciences professor Lonnie Thompson, a polar ice specialist. "I think there are unpleasant surprises as we move into the 21st century."

Michael MacCracken, who until 2001 coordinated the official U.S. government reviews of the international climate report on global warming, has fired off a letter of protest over the omission.

The melting ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica are a fairly recent development that has taken scientists by surprise. They don't know how to predict its effects in their computer models. But many fear it will mean the world's coastlines are swamped much earlier than most predict.

Others believe the ice melt is temporary and won't play such a dramatic role.

That debate may be the central one as scientists and bureaucrats from around the world gather in Paris to finish the first of four major global warming reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The panel was created by the United Nations in 1988.

After four days of secret word-by-word editing, the final report will be issued Friday.

The early versions of the report predict that by 2100 the sea level will rise anywhere between 5 and 23 inches. That's far lower than the 20 to 55 inches forecast by 2100 in a study published in the peer-review journal Science this month. Other climate experts, including NASA's James Hansen, predict sea level rise that can be measured by feet more than inches.

The report is also expected to include some kind of proviso that says things could be much worse if ice sheets continue to melt.

The prediction being considered this week by the IPCC is "obviously not the full story because ice sheet decay is something we cannot model right now, but we know it's happening," said Stefan Rahmstorf, a climate panel lead author from Germany who made the larger prediction of up to 55 inches of sea level rise. "A document like that tends to underestimate the risk," he said.

"This will dominate their discussion because there's so much contentiousness about it," said Bob Corell, chairman of the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment, a multinational research effort. "If the IPCC comes out with significantly less than one meter (about 39 inches of sea level rise), there will be people in the science community saying we don't think that's a fair reflection of what we know."

In the past, the climate change panel didn't figure there would be large melt of ice in west Antarctica and Greenland this century and didn't factor it into the predictions. Those forecasts were based only on the sea level rise from melting glaciers (which are different from ice sheets) and the physical expansion of water as it warms.

But in 2002, Antarctica's 1,255-square-mile Larsen B ice shelf broke off and disappeared in just 35 days. And recent NASA data shows that Greenland is losing 53 cubic miles of ice each year _ twice the rate it was losing in 1996.

Even so, there are questions about how permanent the melting in Greenland and especially Antarctica are, said panel lead author Kevin Trenberth, chief of climate analysis at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado.

While he said the melting ice sheets "raise a warning flag," Trenberth said he wonders if "some of this might just be temporary."

University of Alabama at Huntsville professor John Christy said Greenland didn't melt much within the past thousand years when it was warmer than now. Christy, a reviewer of the panel work, is a prominent so-called skeptic. He acknowledges that global warming is real and man-made, but he believes it is not as worrisome as advertised.

Those scientists who say sea level will rise even more are battling a consensus-building structure that routinely issues scientifically cautious global warming reports, scientists say. The IPCC reports have to be unanimous, approved by 154 governments _ including the United States and oil-rich countries such as Saudi Arabia _ and already published peer-reviewed research done before mid-2006.

Rahmstorf, a physics and oceanography professor at Potsdam University in Germany, says, "In a way, it is one of the strengths of the IPCC to be very conservative and cautious and not overstate any climate change risk."

On the Net:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: http://www.ipcc.ch/

A service of the Associated Press(AP)

[Traveler]

Scientists and economists have been offered $10,000 each by a lobby group funded by one of the world's largest oil companies to undermine a major climate change report due to be published today.

Letters sent by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), an ExxonMobil-funded think tank with close links to the Bush administration, offered the payments for articles that emphasise the shortcomings of a report from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Travel expenses and additional payments were also offered.

Cont...



http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2004397,00.html

[Spider]

Scientists and economists have been offered $10,000 each by a lobby group funded by one of the world's largest oil companies to undermine a major climate change report due to be published today.

Letters sent by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), an ExxonMobil-funded think tank with close links to the Bush administration, offered the payments for articles that emphasise the shortcomings of a report from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Travel expenses and additional payments were also offered.

Cont...



http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2004397,00.html

and to think some here are ok with whats going on , cause Big Oil made profits ..........

[Hotrod]

Have you even been outside today pfft global warming my ass.

[Rohirrim]

Scientists and economists have been offered $10,000 each by a lobby group funded by one of the world's largest oil companies to undermine a major climate change report due to be published today.

Letters sent by the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), an ExxonMobil-funded think tank with close links to the Bush administration, offered the payments for articles that emphasise the shortcomings of a report from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

Travel expenses and additional payments were also offered.

Cont...



http://environment.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,,2004397,00.html

I guess these people don't have grandchildren. Either that, or their greed addiction has just turned them into mindless, slavering junkies. The tobacco industry had that affliction. Mark my words, one of these seasons, and it won't be long, a hurricane will cross over the Florida panhandle and it won't leave a blade of grass in the ground. If the sea level goes up five feet, that will create two million refugees around the world. We can't even deal with a hundred thousand refugees from Africa. Imagine, two million wandering, starving people, dying of thirst?

[Spider]

Have you even been outside today pfft global warming my ass.

Ha! I had to go outside , 2 women 1 Bathroom , no shirt , no Shoes , and a well water tree .............
but lets look at some facts here , when I came to Wyoming , getting snow waist deep was pretty much normal , or snow difting so high due to wind you couldnt see the stop signs , harsh winters , extremely hot summers , now we get 3 freaking inches of snow and it is a a damn catastrophic event ........

[Hotrod]

Ha! I had to go outside , 2 women 1 Bathroom , no shirt , no Shoes , and a well water tree .............
but lets look at some facts here , when I came to Wyoming , getting snow waist deep was pretty much normal , or snow difting so high due to wind you couldnt see the stop signs , harsh winters , extremely hot summers , now we get 3 freaking inches of snow and it is a a damn catastrophic event ........


Funny you should mention going outside Ha!


http://www.ilovefunlife.com/content/20060309/pictures/19/cra036.jpg

[Spider]

Funny you should mention going outside Ha!


http://www.ilovefunlife.com/content/20060309/pictures/19/cra036.jpg

Hilarious! that had to be taken in alamamosa

[Hotrod]

I guess these people don't have grandchildren. Either that, or their greed addiction has just turned them into mindless, slavering junkies. The tobacco industry had that affliction. Mark my words, one of these seasons, and it won't be long, a hurricane will cross over the Florida panhandle and it won't leave a blade of grass in the ground. If the sea level goes up five feet, that will create two million refugees around the world. We can't even deal with a hundred thousand refugees from Africa. Imagine, two million wandering, starving people, dying of thirst?


Um ever heard of FEMA???

[Stormontheplains]

I'm ok with it. Plus when in science has something been proved when you only have 0.89% of data. Example, me predicting something that would take 2 months of data, and me making my prediction in 15 minuetes.

[Hotrod]

I agree Spider

Growing up here they used to have simply nowhere to put the snow so it would get piled up so high in the middle of the streets it was dangerous because you could not see traffic coming. Eventually they would use trucks and haul it to the city parks etc. Made some damn fine sledding as kids. Then the cold was freaking unreal 40-60 below was not unusual.

Now 20 below is thought to be crazy and as of right now we have about 1" on the ground. 1 freaking inch. We've had some melting already but 1" ???

Im actually starting to worry about my well. :nono: Might have to stop showering in 2007 ;D

[Spider]

I agree Spider

Growing up here they used to have simply nowhere to put the snow so it would get piled up so high in the middle of the streets it was dangerous because you could not see traffic coming. Eventually they would use trucks and haul it to the city parks etc. Made some damn fine sledding as kids. Then the cold was freaking unreal 40-60 below was not unusual.

Now 20 below is thought to be crazy and as of right now we have about 1" on the ground. 1 freaking inch. We've had some melting already but 1" ???

Im actually starting to worry about my well. :nono: Might have to stop showering in 2007 ;D

;D , i figured you knew what I was babbling about ;D

[Spider]

I'm ok with it. Plus when in science has something been proved when you only have 0.89% of data. Example, me predicting something that would take 2 months of data, and me making my prediction in 15 minuetes.

try living out west here , we can see the results ............

[fontaine]

This is why we as a race are totally and utterly boned when it comes to the environmental issues the next couple of decades.

Too much time spent arguing on semantics, details, figures, and the accuracy of computer generated models.

You and I know buring up fossil fuels at an enormous rate is going to have significant and catastrophic effects to the world we live in. Yet more time/effort/energy/resources are actually spent arguing the exact types of solutions rather than just doing it.

I don't expect things to change. China is just around the corner with a quarter of a billion people waiting in line for SUVs.

[cutthemdown]

and to think some here are ok with whats going on , cause Big Oil made profits ..........

If oil companies don't have the gas to sell us we get mad. If we can't drive everywhere we want we get upset. If our electricity doesn't work we complain. Our water better be hot!!!! Our lights better work and the gas station better have fuel for me cheap. It's not big oils fault its the fault of the human race.

[cutthemdown]

whats funny is if the planet was getting colder that would probably be worst for humans.

[Rohirrim]

whats funny is if the planet was getting colder that would probably be worst for humans.

I might in some places, like Europe. Nobody really knows for sure.

[cutthemdown]

http://www.epa.gov/heatisland/strategies/greenroofs.html


This is a system where you plant vegetation on roofs to diminish the heat that cities absorb and store.

[cutthemdown]

I might in some places, like Europe. Nobody really knows for sure.

I heard it cold mean a longer better growing season for some farmers. Not saying this stuff is good I know it's bad. Things staying the same like the earth was meant to be would be far better. If Europe got colder wouldn't that be worst as far as growing food over slightly warmer? Anyone a farmer?

[Spider]

If oil companies don't have the gas to sell us we get mad. If we can't drive everywhere we want we get upset. If our electricity doesn't work we complain. Our water better be hot!!!! Our lights better work and the gas station better have fuel for me cheap. It's not big oils fault its the fault of the human race.

LOL the right always needs a boogie man .......... yeah there is no other way to get the energy we need .......... oh and by the way , every rest stop in Wyoming has electricity , but it is solar powered ........funnya state with Energy to spare, running on solar power .......... oh well back to your rant ......

[cutthemdown]

i guesss this also means that the new way to get rich will be environmentally friendly alternatives to products that are right now not good for environment.

[cutthemdown]

LOL the right always needs a boogie man .......... yeah there is no other way to get the energy we need .......... oh and by the way , every rest stop in Wyoming has electricity , but it is solar powered ........funnya state with Energy to spare, running on solar power .......... oh well back to your rant ......

wyoming? give me a break that is the least populated state in the country. Oh and stop stealing Montana's water. If you don't think that it's all our faults that the planet is polluted and ozone is gone you are kidding yourself.

[Spider]

i guesss this also means that the new way to get rich will be environmentally friendly alternatives to products that are right now not good for environment.

again it isnt the profits per say , it is how the profits are obtained ............
Look Wyoming and most of the Northern tier is full of low Sulpher coal , Clean burning stuff , hardly any waste , so how come more Electric plats are not Coal ?
Montana even has a more pure grade of coal , but it is buried pretty deep in the ground ..................
i support nuke power and Coal , those 2 forms of Energy are the road to cleaning up the enviorment ..........
have you seen a oil rig up close ?
if not you should

[Spider]

wyoming? give me a break that is the least populated state in the country.

So what does our population have to do with anything ?

Oh and stop stealing Montana's water.
Thats for the courts to decide ..........


If you don't think that it's all our faults that the planet is polluted and ozone is gone you are kidding yourself.
LOL , I point out we have other forms of energy ..........Directly refuting your rant ......... instead of this crap , why not point out the downfalls of the alt. Energy I brought up ?

[Rohirrim]

I heard it cold mean a longer better growing season for some farmers. Not saying this stuff is good I know it's bad. Things staying the same like the earth was meant to be would be far better. If Europe got colder wouldn't that be worst as far as growing food over slightly warmer? Anyone a farmer?

One of the most likely scenarios I've heard is that as the higher latitudes (closer to the poles) become warmer and the precipitation belts move away from the equator. Eventually, the rain forests are turned into deserts. Of course, that's the most populous region on earth. As the droughts persist and all life and vegetation begin to die off, those people begin to migrate north and south.

[Bronco Bob]

I heard it cold mean a longer better growing season for some farmers. Not saying this stuff is good I know it's bad. Things staying the same like the earth was meant to be would be far better. If Europe got colder wouldn't that be worst as far as growing food over slightly warmer? Anyone a farmer?

The problem is that as the earth gets warmer, the amount of deserts increase.
So that means less land to grow crops on. This more than offsets the
increased growing season in cooler climates. Imagine the whole midwest
as one big desert, where there were once wheat and corn fields. Now the
Rocky Mountains would be warmer, but how much wheat and corn can
you grow there?

[Bronco Bob]

again it isnt the profits per say , it is how the profits are obtained ............
Look Wyoming and most of the Northern tier is full of low Sulpher coal , Clean burning stuff , hardly any waste , so how come more Electric plats are not Coal ?
Montana even has a more pure grade of coal , but it is buried pretty deep in the ground ..................
i support nuke power and Coal , those 2 forms of Energy are the road to cleaning up the enviorment ..........
have you seen a oil rig up close ?
if not you should

Coal is almost pure carbon. When it is burned with air, it produces CO2.
CO2 is the greenhouse gas most responsible for global warming.
Whether it includes some sulfur that happens to get burned along
the way is irrelevant. It still puts CO2 into the air.
So how can burning any kind of coal be good for the environment?

[Spider]

Coal is almost pure carbon. When it is burned with air, it produces CO2.
CO2 is the greenhouse gas most responsible for global warming.
Whether it includes some sulfur that happens to get burned along
the way is irrelevant. It still puts CO2 into the air.
So how can burning any kind of coal be good for the environment?

Scrubbers ......and whats called cleaning , utes take the coal from the dragline to a Crusher

[Swedish Extrovert]

I thought it was a prm example between Fox News and CNN with how they responded to this report. Apparently, this group of scientests that met in Paris concluded that A. Global warming IS caused by humans B. It will continue no matter what we do about it C. We can SLOW it by reducing our carbon emissions.

CNN's headline read like this - "Report concludes humans are source of global warming"

Fox news - "Report concludes global warming inevitible"

****ing fox news.

[N.O.Bronco]

I thought it was a prm example between Fox News and CNN with how they responded to this report. Apparently, this group of scientests that met in Paris concluded that A. Global warming IS caused by humans B. It will continue no matter what we do about it C. We can SLOW it by reducing our carbon emissions.

CNN's headline read like this - "Report concludes humans are source of global warming"

Fox news - "Report concludes global warming inevitible"

****ing fox news.

thats fox news or you. i actually did a report for a journalism class where i watched fox news and took about 4 or 5 stories researched the sources and compared them to other news agencies and was able to show how in every case they cherry picked the info to suit the conservative idealogy. Left out demeaning parts to the party and in some instances lied or misrepresented what the original source concluded.

The paper was 10 pages and it only took 2 hours of watching the channel and a half an hour on their website to find the stories to investigate. In fact I only really focused on 7 stories and 5 of those had what i hypothesized. I really think they need to lose their "News" title they really are dangerous to our society, just go look at the comments section on their website.

[cutthemdown]

nuclear fuel would help greenhouse effect right? I know France gets almost all electricity from that but we don't build any new nuclear power plants. There are safe ways to store the waste. Would something like doing away with old power plants help much?

[cutthemdown]

So what does our population have to do with anything ?


Thats for the courts to decide ..........



LOL , I point out we have other forms of energy ..........Directly refuting your rant ......... instead of this crap , why not point out the downfalls of the alt. Energy I brought up ?

I'm all for nuclear power!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Spider]

I'm all for nuclear power!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Huh , that would cut into big oil profits ...... you want to have some fun , google the Tucker Torpedo , a car light years ahead of its time , several companies didnt want ot see that car on the market

[Bronco Bob]

nuclear fuel would help greenhouse effect right? I know France gets almost all electricity from that but we don't build any new nuclear power plants. There are safe ways to store the waste. Would something like doing away with old power plants help much?

Nuclear plants would be the ideal way to cut the use of oil and coal,
which is the main source of excess CO2 being released into the air.
Fusion would be even better because it doesn't leave radioactive
byproducts, and the oceans are full of hydrogen.

[Bronco Bob]

Scrubbers ......and whats called cleaning , utes take the coal from the dragline to a Crusher

Scrubbers do absolutely nothing to prevent CO2 from being released into the air.
They're just for getting rid of soot and other particulates.

[cutthemdown]

Huh , that would cut into big oil profits ...... you want to have some fun , google the Tucker Torpedo , a car light years ahead of its time , several companies didnt want ot see that car on the market

I could care less what big oil companies make. I for think it would be funny to see oil not worth crap anymore and all these 2 bit countries relying on it being SOL and done. No water, global warming, no oil revenue would bring an end to the money that supports terrorism once and for all. Could you imagine what would happen to the people i countries like Iran/Saudi Arabia/Kuwait without huge oil revenues?

[cutthemdown]

One of the most likely scenarios I've heard is that as the higher latitudes (closer to the poles) become warmer and the precipitation belts move away from the equator. Eventually, the rain forests are turned into deserts. Of course, that's the most populous region on earth. As the droughts persist and all life and vegetation begin to die off, those people begin to migrate north and south.

they already migrate north. In that movie where the planet goes into ice age they had Americans trying to get to mexico, lol. That was funny.

[Spider]

Scrubbers do absolutely nothing to prevent CO2 from being released into the air.
They're just for getting rid of soot and other particulates.

I dont know the name of it , Project Mustang or something like that . but the part of my quote you totaly ignored was the cleaning part .............