Lee Rasizer's take

[Needa Pass Rush]

This thins has probably seen the light of day here on the 'Mane already.... but Justin Case. ;)

http://www.sportingnews.com/yourturn/viewtopic.php?t=167898


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Broncos Team Report
January 14, 2007

Lee Rasizer
Rocky Mountain News


PERSONNEL ANALYSIS: The hiring of Jim Bates as assistant head coach/defense shouldn't bring widescale changes in approach, since he favored a 4-3 alignment Denver already uses. And while the Broncos backed off their all-out blitz approach of two years ago for a more conservative bent this season, expect something in between with Bates and new defensive coordinator Bob Slowik in charge. One variation he has employed in the past is putting his cornerbacks in bump-and-run coverage. But CB Champ Bailey, who previously has been a press corner, recently spoke of how playing off-coverage has made him a better player because it's given him the ability to use his superior vision to read the quarterback, then react to plays in front of him while also guarding against the deep ball. But Bates isn't known as hard-headed and will likely find a happy medium. One item Denver desperately needs is improved edge rushing, and Bates has been on coaching staffs that have helped make stars out of players such as Adawale Ogunleye, Jason Taylor and Aaron Kampman. . . .

LT Matt Lepsis is off crutches following microfracture surgery on his right knee and has finally begun weight-bearing exercises. He had been focusing on range of motion and strengthening his quadriceps previously. It's the second time he's had that kind of procedure, having already done so on the left leg, so he knows the drill. He is expected to be completely healed in time for training camp.

HARD TRUTH: One of the biggest reason the Broncos have failed to consistently field a stout front four in recent seasons is because the team has nearly always passed on taking linemen in early rounds and mostly whiffed on the middle- to late-round selections it did add. Reggie Hayward was an exception but eventually left in free agency. Elvis Dumervil has shown some promise as a pass rusher but appears limited as a full-timer. The rest of the recent draft picks have been depth guys, game-day inactives and outright cuts. Instead, the Broncos have gone the free-agent or trade route for veterans to build depth, with mixed results. It's time Denver uses its first few picks for linemen like it did with cornerbacks a couple seasons back and get a solid core to go with some of the older, stop-gap players up front.

YOUTH MOVEMENT: The anticipated return of Lepsis at left tackle means his replacement, Erik Pears, may be without a position entering the offseason. But the Broncos have been unhappy with George Foster's inconsistency and Adam Meadows has been unable to stay healthy, so don't be surprised if Pears gets a long look at right tackle. He's big enough (6-8, 305) to handle the strong-side blocking aspect, though his height could be detrimental at times because so much is predicated on getting underneath defender's pads and it requires significant knee bend to do it successfully at his size. But he's athletic enough and a tough competitor who plays angles well. And though Pears isn't quite as accomplished in pass protection as he is in the run game, getting him away from the other team's best and fastest pass-rushers could actually boost his performance in that realm and he now has pro experience from which to draw.

[Clockwork Orange]

LT Matt Lepsis is off crutches following microfracture surgery on his right knee and has finally begun weight-bearing exercises.

Microfracture? I thought Lepsis had ACL surgery?

[Paladin]

Jeez. Get with the program. Any and all serious Broncos fans know he had a microfracture! And not just one, mind you. Freaking newbies!!




j/k

[Needa Pass Rush]

LEPSIS ON THE MEND: Left tackle Matt Lepsis needed microfracture surgery when he went under the knife Nov. 7 to repair a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee, an even more serious procedure than just repairing the ACL. He'll remain on crutches for about two more weeks before he can begin any weight-bearing exercises.
A microfracture procedure is when small holes are drilled into the bone to cause some bleeding and create substitute cartilage.
Lepsis, who is wearing a bulky brace on his leg, previously had a similar procedure performed on his left knee and came back to become one of the steadiest players at his position in the league.
His current rehabilitation is focused on keeping range of motion and retaining strength in his quadriceps surrounding the surgically repaired area before beginning gradual weight-bearing work.
The tackle is expected to be healed in time for 2007 training camp, and perhaps ready for a minicamp in June. He was injured in the Oct. 22 game at Cleveland.

[Clockwork Orange]

I must be slipping in my old age. ;D

[OrangeShadow]

good read NPA thanks. Maybe bates will bump and run with fox or paymah and let champ play off?

[Drek]

I think he's underrating Dumervil's potential as an every down DE. I think his run stopping skills are better than a young Hayward's was. He might be small but he's got a good nose for the ball and uses those long arms to make solid tackles. Given some experience and some NFL level weight training I think he could develop into a pretty good full time RDE.

[BroncoBuff]

It's time Denver uses its first few picks for linemen like it did with cornerbacks a couple seasons back and get a solid core to go with some of the older, stop-gap players up front.


Hey - Rasizer has been reading my posts.

[Drek]

Hey - Rasizer has been reading my posts.

This actually wouldn't surprise me, especially if the FO can trade the #21 overall pick for an '08 1st and an '07 2nd.

When we did a similar trade with Washington they were #9 in draft position, we were #25 (720 points), so using the projection of future picks being worth a round less, their '06 1st was worth 490 (same as their '05 2nd), their '05 3rd was worth 225, and their '06 4th was 37.5 points. So we did a 720 points for 752.5 points trade there, pretty close to even. If the same rule of thumb were to hold true this year we could potentially trade the #21 overall pick for an '08 1st and an '07 2nd as long as the team's first is at #18 or lower, or an '08 first and a 3rd if they're between 3rd-17th.

I'd love to see us make a deal sending #21 to say, San Francisco for their '07 3rd and 4th round picks along with their '08 1st and 4th. They're a team on the rise so they might be more willing to shop their '08 first and getting their 3rd and 4th this year puts us in good position to clean up the sliders in a good DL class.

Maybe even package Tatum Bell and/or George Foster off to new locales to move back up into the late 1st/early 2nd as well. Our 2nd and late 3rd are worth slightly more than the 5th in the 2nd, if Tatum or Foster could return a late 3rd it'd be worth moving back up and sitting in prime slider position, with picks 70 (WAS) and 75 (SF) in our laps to address our depth needs.

I'd honestly love to see the FO take this strategy cyclically. Trade the first one year, draft a bunch of projects at a big need position, then use the two firsts the following year to go after a superstar. Before long we'd get lucky and trade with a team that falls apart the following year, netting us a high first along with our own.

[Popps]

Hey - Rasizer has been reading my posts.

Yea, or any of mine over the last 10 years.

I can't wait to watch this team achieve lift-off when the front office finally embraces that concept.

[eddie mac]

What makes anyone think this offseason will be any different??? If anything the coaching changes Shanahan has already made seem to point the blame at the tutors and not the personnel. I wont hold my breath.

[Paladin]

Isn't there a point at which trading down (particularly the first) might be counterproductive? Case in point: there have been some mocks that imply that either Moses or Johnson from UGA might be available at 21. To trade that off for a first NEXT year and a second this year negates getting a top notch DE or DT, or even Reggie Nelson, a top S prospect. The point is, would you be trading some of the potential help you can use now for a lesser player?

My interest is in seeing the Broncso do it now so that next year is a Title year....

[Play2win]

What makes anyone think this offseason will be any different??? If anything the coaching changes Shanahan has already made seem to point the blame at the tutors and not the personnel. I wont hold my breath.

I think he sees the problem and is going to address (attack) all facets of that problem.

[Play2win]

Isn't there a point at which trading down (particularly the first) might be counterproductive? Case in point: there have been some mocks that imply that either Moses or Johnson from UGA might be available at 21. To trade that off for a first NEXT year and a second this year negates getting a top notch DE or DT, or even Reggie Nelson, a top S prospect. The point is, would you be trading some of the potential help you can use now for a lesser player?

My interest is in seeing the Broncso do it now so that next year is a Title year....

I think it can definitely be counter-productive.

I think we need consistency in the draft. Consistency, to me, means 1 true difference maker in each draft from here on out.

I mean 1 true difference maker. A true impact player. A guy that can take games over at times. A guy that is a true difference make and is a long time solution.

We have a group young player with some vets. Yes we have holes, but if we can amass one difference make on each level of our offense and defense, a guy that can take over a game when needed, we are going to be looking real good.

I'm tired of trading down to get more possible players... when hardly any of them seem to be on our team, just a couple of years later.

QUALITY not quantity...

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Thanks NPR - Great news on Lepsis

[fontaine]

I hope everything goes well for Lepsis.

Be well Matt, you're one of my favorite Broncos and hope to see you back next year destroying speed rushers and getting to the 2nd level to land LBers on their butts.

http://web1.denverbroncos.com/resources/custom/Images/Top%20Stories/2006/nalen_lepsis_js_060720.jpg

[watermock]

We are about 6 starters away still. I thought 07 would be the year but we still have holes. It's early and we might be able to spackle and draft our way back in it.

[Drek]

Isn't there a point at which trading down (particularly the first) might be counterproductive? Case in point: there have been some mocks that imply that either Moses or Johnson from UGA might be available at 21. To trade that off for a first NEXT year and a second this year negates getting a top notch DE or DT, or even Reggie Nelson, a top S prospect. The point is, would you be trading some of the potential help you can use now for a lesser player?

My interest is in seeing the Broncso do it now so that next year is a Title year....

The Broncos aren't winning a title next year thanks to anyone they'll have a shot at with pick #21. Shanahan only starts rookies when the veterans he brings in to play over them flop completely. Moses or Johnson would be perpetually stuck as a second stringer in our DE rotation, Dumervil only got his shot when we were hit by injuries and now he and Lang are the new pass rushing tandem. Nelson wouldn't see the light of day with Ferguson and Brandon playing over him. You might think they'd be oh so impressive but look at Shanahan's history, the guy won't give rookies a starting spot unless there isn't another NFL level choice on the roster.

The only way a rookie will step in and make a difference in '07 is if they address a shallow position's need. That means the only place a rookie has a shot to crack our starting 22 and make a difference is at RB, the one position Shanahan always leaves wide open, and DT where last year we only carried three guys none of which were very good. Can we get a difference making tackle at #21? maybe, but who would it be, Okoye or Tyler? (Pittcock would be an overpick there) Those guys are talented projects, less likely to make a first year difference than more polished DTs who'll go in later rounds. How about RB? Well Lynch might slide if Green Bay passes and no one else trades up, but thats pretty unlikely. At that point we're better off letting Turner and Shanahan pinpoint the 2nd or 3rd round draft steal at RB, which they have history of being very good at.

#21 is a horrible pick in this draft. Its too late for the elite talent at our need positions and too early for us to take a project and get good value for it. Our best move is to either trade up and get one of the NFL ready talents or trade down, in which case the best value is taking an '08 1st along with an '07 2nd or early 3rd.

It doesn't mean we've given up on first round talent though. We already have the 53rd pick, our 2nd, the 70th pick from the Redskins, and the 85th pick, our 3rd. The 53rd and 70th could get us back up to the last few picks in round one. Then we'd be in ideal position to grab a sliding talent where we're getting good value.

An ideal draft for me would involve a trade with SF where we get their '07 3rd and 4th and '08 1st and 4th, moving Tatum Bell on for a 3rd, then using our second and one of our four thirds to move back up into the late first round. Grab Tank Tyler or Pittcock there, trade the latest two 3rd together up for a late second where we grab a the best RB on the board, and use the remaining early 3rd to take either Mason Crosby or Akaika Alama-Francis. We add DL depth, a new horse to the RB mix, and either a really promising LDE prospect in Alama-Francis or a punter who should give us a major boost on change of posession yardage as well as a potential replacement for Elam in a year or two.

[BroncoBuff]

... what Drek said.

[Rock Chalk]

I think he's underrating Dumervil's potential as an every down DE. I think his run stopping skills are better than a young Hayward's was. He might be small but he's got a good nose for the ball and uses those long arms to make solid tackles. Given some experience and some NFL level weight training I think he could develop into a pretty good full time RDE.

I think you are overrating Dumervil's potential as an every down DE. He might be a competant one, but he will be a dominant pass rush specialist.

[elsid13]

I going to disagree with the Drek, Shanahan has no problem playing rookies or less experience players as long as they perform in practice and they show they can handle the prep to be successfull on Sunday. Of course he wants to play vets because they have the experience and know the speed of the game, but Shanahan will play the guys that perform during the week. Example of this: Mobily, Pryce, DWill, Foxworth,Griese

[Inkana7]

I hope everything goes well for Lepsis.

Be well Matt, you're one of my favorite Broncos and hope to see you back next year destroying speed rushers and getting to the 2nd level to land LBers on their butts.

http://web1.denverbroncos.com/resources/custom/Images/Top%20Stories/2006/nalen_lepsis_js_060720.jpg

Dude has some serious good looks. Could retire from football and be a model if he dropped a few pounds.

[Polster60]

I think the worst thing the broncos could do is get into the mind set that there are no impact players available at 21. I think it's huge to draft by BPA. When you go into the draft going by need you risk passing up a player that could help your team just because at that time that player wasn't needed. What would happen if Javon Walker were to get injured and our starting WRs would be an aging Smith(GOD Bless him) and a second year Brandon Marshall ( Baby TO). Yeah, that's good. Now, what if for some reason WR Dwanye Jarrett falls to 21, would you pick him, or would you trade the pick away? For me pesonally he would become the BPA and I would select him. You never know when an injury might occur. Shanny, Sundquist go BPA style.

[Polster60]

Also, trading down should only happen if after the combine and the interviews, you can without a doubt say that the talent at 21 is just as good as that in the 2nd. round. At this moment, I would say there is a pretty clear division in talent from round to round and at some point pick to pick.