How the chiefs are using up their franchise(outsiders)

[yavoon]

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2007/01/01/ramblings/stat-analysis/4764/

All season long, when talking about Shaun Alexander’s problems, you’ve seen us refer to the “Curse of 370.” You’ve also seen that term as we tracked Larry Johnson’s high number of carries all season long. Now that Johnson has set the NFL record with 416 carries in the regular season, the “Curse of 370? is showing up in everything written by Football Outsiders.
We wanted to help those who were new to our site understand the Curse of 370, which is something we’ve been writing about for three years. The first article about 370 carries appeared in the book Pro Football Forecast 2004, and was also published on our site when Ricky Williams retired in July 2004. You’ll find that article here. A sequel article appeared in the Seattle chapter of Pro Football Prospectus 2006, and it is republished in its entirety below.
Just so people understand, there’s nothing magical about carry number 370 that makes a running back blow out his ACL, any more than there is something special about pitch 100 that makes a pitcher’s arm fall off. It’s simply a useful shorthand to represent the fact that overworking your running back with too many carries is a bad thing. The punishment gets worse and worse with more carries, and 370 is a close approximation of the tipping point.

[WABronco]

Yea, I saw that the other day.

HOORAY NEW CARRIES RECORD HOORAY!

[DomCasual]

I just don't get it. Michael Bennett had 36 carries (2.25/game!) and a 5.6 YPC. He could have easily gotten to, say, 100. Then you'd be looking at Johnson with 350 or so - a pretty manageable number.

I've said it a bunch of times on here. I hope LJ enjoyed running for his black coach - the one that understands him so much. The guy probably shortened his career by a year or two with the abuse he put him through this year.

[crazyhorse]

I just don't get it. Michael Bennett had 36 carries (2.25/game!) and a 5.6 YPC. He could have easily gotten to, say, 100. Then you'd be looking at Johnson with 350 or so - a pretty manageable number.

I've said it a bunch of times on here. I hope LJ enjoyed running for his black coach - the one that understands him so much. The guy probably shortened his career by a year or two with the abuse he put him through this year.

Bennett is always on the injury report.

[Killericon]

I think Herm wants to grind LJ into dust so he can let him walk in FA worry-free.

[OrangeShadow]

I would worry if he continues to carry the ball at this pace fora few years in a row but right now. Hes only played a little over one and a half years. Hes still has considerably fresh legs as far as running back goes. So while it wouldnt be wise to run him at this pace for years in succession i wouldnt make a big deal of it just yet.

[yavoon]

I would worry if he continues to carry the ball at this pace fora few years in a row but right now. Hes only played a little over one and a half years. Hes still has considerably fresh legs as far as running back goes. So while it wouldnt be wise to run him at this pace for years in succession i wouldnt make a big deal of it just yet.

there are two kinds of wear though, there's longterm total carry career wear. and there's hyper wear that happens when u overload. LJ is in overload area.

[ZachKC]

The guy wants the ball...hell...this season there have been times he has said he wanted the ball more. Casting that aside...and moving on from the good points about his lack of use in college and his rookie season something seems to get lost in this.

The guy does not take that many direct hits. Sit and watch a game with Larry Johnson in it. It is true. He doesn't take many brutal hits. It wasn't like this early in his career. When there is a lot of physical play he usually seems to be the one giving punishment and getting stronger as time goes on. I don't think this issue doesn't have merit. I think he is used a bit too much and I would like that to even out but I think it has been overblown into a lot more than it really will be.

The guy is fresh every week. You can see it on the field...people talk about how he hops around practice and has all this energy. I think he is a very unique runner.

[Jetmeck]

The guy wants the ball...




They run him in the ground where would your offense be without him ? That is a sad thought isn't it ? Hence they want to use their heads and back him off some.

[yavoon]

The guy wants the ball...hell...this season there have been times he has said he wanted the ball more. Casting that aside...and moving on from the good points about his lack of use in college and his rookie season something seems to get lost in this.

The guy does not take that many direct hits. Sit and watch a game with Larry Johnson in it. It is true. He doesn't take many brutal hits. It wasn't like this early in his career. When there is a lot of physical play he usually seems to be the one giving punishment and getting stronger as time goes on. I don't think this issue doesn't have merit. I think he is used a bit too much and I would like that to even out but I think it has been overblown into a lot more than it really will be.

The guy is fresh every week. You can see it on the field...people talk about how he hops around practice and has all this energy. I think he is a very unique runner.

u believe that "giving the punishment" thing if u want, while its some help to be setup and expecting it. in the end, physics is not ur side.

[GonzoLays]

What a stupid theory. Hit 370 carries and the wheels falls off? Give me a break.

Walter Payton his 370 twice in his career. How did that turn out?

Emmit Smith went over 370 FOUR times in his first six seasons in the league. How did that turn out? (I guess Emmitt never got the memo telling him that he should have been walking with a walker after his second 370+ carry season. Good grief)

Eric Dickerson went over 400 carries early on his career, and two seasons later, when over 370. How did that turn out?

Curtis Martin went over 370 carries three times during the first five seasons of his career. How did that turn out?

And the list goes on and on...

Football outsiders has been coming out with some whack stuff lately. Hit 370 and the wheels fall off? Who are these clowns kidding? What moron is believing this crap?

[Ali Chi3fs]

Its concerning, but that how this offense is run, right now. When you always run on first down...

Hell, chances are he gets 35+ in Indy. Man, I hate the Colts...

[Elway 4 Life]

Earl Cambell came to the dealership that I work at 2 years ago and could barely walk without assitance. He was only 50 at the time. LJ is a bruising runner alot like Cambell. If he keeps this 400 carry a season pace he'll be gone in no more than 5 years and walking with assistance in about 15.

[Atwater His Ass]

u believe that "giving the punishment" thing if u want, while its some help to be setup and expecting it. in the end, physics is not ur side.

I also don't buy the "giving the punishment" argument. LJ is without a doubt an excellent RB even if his personal qualities leave much to be desired. However, the fact remains, if KC continues to drive him into the ground, his long term outlook in the NFL is bleak, eventhough he'll probably put up nice numbers over those few years he plays.

Bottom line is RB is one of the shortest lived positions in the NFL and overworking your RB over the course of a season is not a good way to extend that career.

[ROYC75]

I just don't get it. Michael Bennett had 36 carries (2.25/game!) and a 5.6 YPC. He could have easily gotten to, say, 100. Then you'd be looking at Johnson with 350 or so - a pretty manageable number.

I've said it a bunch of times on here. I hope LJ enjoyed running for his black coach - the one that understands him so much. The guy probably shortened his career by a year or two with the abuse he put him through this year.

We all have wanted Bennett to get more carries, he is always hurt. The guy is like glass, very thin glass. He has missed 8 or 9 games this year but he is suppose to be healthy again this weekend @ Indy.

[fontaine]

The guy wants the ball...hell...this season there have been times he has said he wanted the ball more. Casting that aside...and moving on from the good points about his lack of use in college and his rookie season something seems to get lost in this.

The guy does not take that many direct hits. Sit and watch a game with Larry Johnson in it. It is true. He doesn't take many brutal hits. It wasn't like this early in his career. When there is a lot of physical play he usually seems to be the one giving punishment and getting stronger as time goes on. I don't think this issue doesn't have merit. I think he is used a bit too much and I would like that to even out but I think it has been overblown into a lot more than it really will be.

The guy is fresh every week. You can see it on the field...people talk about how he hops around practice and has all this energy. I think he is a very unique runner.


LJ is a very tough runner but Zach you have to know that he gets hit more often in the backfield than a lot of RBs out there. It's a testament to his drive and ability that he takes the hit so often at the LOS or backfield and still keeps his legs churning. So it's not as easy to say that he doesn't get hit directly.

BTW I think the Curse of 370 is bullshiat. You can't predict injury etc. Some guys are just hard nosed football players and play well year in year out. Some guys gets hurt on the bench and in practice ala Micheal Bennett.

[Kaylore]

370 isn't that bad but 400+ pretty much guarantees there will be problems. Power backs are especially prone to get burned up within a few seasons. LJ has one more season maybe and his legs will be done - especially with Shields retiring, Gonzo leaving, Kennison older and slower and Green's skills degenerating.

[elsid13]

Let be honest, if you were Herm and you knew the key to you winning was pounding this guy into the opponents defense wouldn't rush him almost every down? Screw tomorrow it about winning today.

We all know that Shanahan would, so why wouldn't Sperm???

[Kaylore]

Let be honest, if you were Herm and you knew the key to you winning was pounding this guy into the opponents defense wouldn't rush him almost every down? Screw tomorrow it about winning today.

We all know that Shanahan would, so why wouldn't Sperm???

Shanahan has always had a pretty good 1 to 1 ratio of run to pass and he makes sure he sticks to that. Some games go more one way or another but he always keeps his team balanced. Herm likes it 3 to 1 run to pass.

[yavoon]

Shanahan has always had a pretty good 1 to 1 ratio of run to pass and he makes sure he sticks to that. Some games go more one way or another but he always keeps his team balanced. Herm likes it 3 to 1 run to pass.

1:1 run to pass can kill a rb pretty easy if he's the one running it the whole time.

and shanny did use TD pretty much like LJ is being used. either way though, its bad to pound ur franchise rb into the dirt.