Broncobuddy7
12-27-2006, 08:00 AM
FOXBORO - The New York Jets cleared up the AFC playoff picture considerably with their Monday night win at Miami. Now if the final weekend breaks down the way the wise guys in Las Vegas believe it will, the Patriots [team stats]’ first- and second-round matchups are all set.
It’s home against Denver in the wild card game and then, with a win, out to San Diego for the second round.
Not that appealing, is it?
For that scenario to play out, Indianapolis must take care of Miami at home Sunday, the Jets need to handle Oakland at the Meadowlands and the Broncos have to dismiss San Francisco in Denver. The Colts are early 7-point favorites, the Jets are giving 11 points to the woeful Raiders and Denver is favored by 10.
If those numbers play out, it doesn’t matter whether the Pats win or lose at Tennessee on Sunday. They’re locked in.
But if you’re thinking a tank job from the Patriots is in store against the Titans, one reminiscent of their 2005 finale against Miami, keep in mind the No. 3 seed is still within reach, and it comes with great value. With the Pats kicking off in Tennessee at 1 p.m. and the Colts-Dolphins game moved to 4:15, thanks to the NFL’s flex scheduling, the Patriots won’t have the benefit of dictating their position like last year.
A No. 3 seed likely would mean a date with the Jets in the first round, not the Broncos. It would also mean a divisional game in Baltimore, which would constitute a much shorter flight and, arguably, a more beatable opponent than San Diego.
But first things first. A look at the Patriots’ prospective first-round opponents and an assessment of who they want, and who they want no part of:
Denver Broncos
The scenario: Laid out above. The Pats also can play the Broncos as the No. 3 seed if Denver loses to the 49ers but still gets in as the sixth seed.
Why the Pats want them: The law of averages. Jay Cutler.
Why they don’t: Champ Bailey. Speed at linebacker. Mike Shanahan.
The skinny: Everyone talks about the Denver running game, but that shouldn’t scare the Patriots. No one’s running on the Pats right now, and the Broncos didn’t run on them in the playoffs last year either (96 yards). What should be far more concerning is the uncanny ability of Shanahan to always get his receivers open against the Pats’ secondary. While the prospect of facing a rookie quarterback in Cutler is appealing, most fans were looking forward to facing Jake Plummer the last two years, too, and Plummer went 3-0.
The coach, the scheme and the receivers are the issue here.
But the biggest problems are on the other side of the ball, where the matchups for the Pats remain unfavorable. The Broncos’ speedy linebacker trio of Al Wilson, Ian Gold and D.J. Williams can neutralize both the Pats’ running game (the Pats ran for 50 yards in the 17-7 loss earlier this year) and their tight ends in the passing game. Cornerback Bailey can shut down half of the field with his eyes closed against whatever Pats receiver he faces.
That leaves Tom Brady [stats] with few options.
Bottom line: The Broncos have won the last three matchups, and most Pats fans just can’t envision a scenario where a Bill Belichick-coached team is beaten four straight times by the same opponent. The law of averages would seem to favor New England, but forgive us if we’re not buying that line of reasoning. The Pats should hope for some upsets this weekend."
http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=174036
It’s home against Denver in the wild card game and then, with a win, out to San Diego for the second round.
Not that appealing, is it?
For that scenario to play out, Indianapolis must take care of Miami at home Sunday, the Jets need to handle Oakland at the Meadowlands and the Broncos have to dismiss San Francisco in Denver. The Colts are early 7-point favorites, the Jets are giving 11 points to the woeful Raiders and Denver is favored by 10.
If those numbers play out, it doesn’t matter whether the Pats win or lose at Tennessee on Sunday. They’re locked in.
But if you’re thinking a tank job from the Patriots is in store against the Titans, one reminiscent of their 2005 finale against Miami, keep in mind the No. 3 seed is still within reach, and it comes with great value. With the Pats kicking off in Tennessee at 1 p.m. and the Colts-Dolphins game moved to 4:15, thanks to the NFL’s flex scheduling, the Patriots won’t have the benefit of dictating their position like last year.
A No. 3 seed likely would mean a date with the Jets in the first round, not the Broncos. It would also mean a divisional game in Baltimore, which would constitute a much shorter flight and, arguably, a more beatable opponent than San Diego.
But first things first. A look at the Patriots’ prospective first-round opponents and an assessment of who they want, and who they want no part of:
Denver Broncos
The scenario: Laid out above. The Pats also can play the Broncos as the No. 3 seed if Denver loses to the 49ers but still gets in as the sixth seed.
Why the Pats want them: The law of averages. Jay Cutler.
Why they don’t: Champ Bailey. Speed at linebacker. Mike Shanahan.
The skinny: Everyone talks about the Denver running game, but that shouldn’t scare the Patriots. No one’s running on the Pats right now, and the Broncos didn’t run on them in the playoffs last year either (96 yards). What should be far more concerning is the uncanny ability of Shanahan to always get his receivers open against the Pats’ secondary. While the prospect of facing a rookie quarterback in Cutler is appealing, most fans were looking forward to facing Jake Plummer the last two years, too, and Plummer went 3-0.
The coach, the scheme and the receivers are the issue here.
But the biggest problems are on the other side of the ball, where the matchups for the Pats remain unfavorable. The Broncos’ speedy linebacker trio of Al Wilson, Ian Gold and D.J. Williams can neutralize both the Pats’ running game (the Pats ran for 50 yards in the 17-7 loss earlier this year) and their tight ends in the passing game. Cornerback Bailey can shut down half of the field with his eyes closed against whatever Pats receiver he faces.
That leaves Tom Brady [stats] with few options.
Bottom line: The Broncos have won the last three matchups, and most Pats fans just can’t envision a scenario where a Bill Belichick-coached team is beaten four straight times by the same opponent. The law of averages would seem to favor New England, but forgive us if we’re not buying that line of reasoning. The Pats should hope for some upsets this weekend."
http://patriots.bostonherald.com/patriots/view.bg?articleid=174036