fontaine
11-23-2006, 09:50 AM
Accidently because he wasn't a Bronco yet.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=3774
College Quarterbacks Through the Prism of Statistics
3/23/2006
Guest column by David Lewin
At the top of the NFL draft, every general manager dreams of finding the next Peyton Manning or John Elway, but fears he will end up with the next Joey Harrington or Akili Smith. With that balance of high risk and high reward in mind, there has been plenty of debate about which of this year’s big three quarterback prospects will make the best pro. Conventional wisdom says that Matt Leinart is the most accomplished of the three. In the aftermath of the Rose Bowl, Vince Young was all the rage. Some scouts believe that dark horse Jay Cutler will end up better than both of them.
Everyone knows that in football, statistical analysis is no substitute for scouting, but it can be useful as an addition to scouting. And since scouting has been particularly iffy when dealing with first round quarterbacks — how’s Ryan Leaf these days? — there is a need for a system that could use college statistics to identify players who are more or less likely to become quality NFL starters.
Analysis of college numbers has been a goal of Football Outsiders since its inception, and in the upcoming book Pro Football Prospectus 2006 it will become a reality for the first time. PFP 2006 will introduce a rookie quarterback projection system which uses regression analysis to determine which college statistics indicate that a quarterback will be successful in the NFL, with success measured by Football Outsiders’ DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) statistics (explained here).
College statistics are accumulated in widely different offensive systems against a wide variety of competition, but they are not meaningless when it comes to predicting NFL success. Based on my research, the two most predictive college statistics are completion percentage and games started. Some people have previously looked at college completion percentages, but adding games started to the analysis improves the results significantly. Without games started, for example, statistical analysis would not identify Brett Favre and Dan Marino as top prospects. (There are other factors that help predict quarterback success, of course, like the quality of the NFL team drafting each player.)
This projection system has been very accurate for quarterbacks drafted over the past ten years. As of now, the projection system only considers quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds. Quarterbacks taken later in the draft are much less likely to have the talent needed to succeed as an NFL starter, and they are much less likely to get an opportunity to prove themselves. For all the NCAA records that Kliff Kingsbury set at Texas Tech, he has completed just one NFL pass. His numbers were inflated by Texas Tech’s system, and he lacks the talent to be an NFL starter. That is why he was drafted in the sixth round, and that is why we have scouts.
With these limitations in mind, here’s a preview of this research with a look at the big three quarterback prospects in this year’s draft, where they might end up, and how they might do once they get there.
Jay Cutler
Cutler is the most mysterious of this year’s top three quarterback prospects. For a while only SEC fans and draft addicts had heard of him, and then suddenly with no warning, Mel Kiper was calling him a potential top-ten pick and comparing him to Brett Favre.
Look at Cutler’s resume, and the first thing that stands out is that he was a four-year starter. Some recent four-year starters coming out of college include Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees and Carson Palmer. That’s pretty good company.
The second thing that stands out is that Cutler spent his whole career playing for a physically overmatched Vanderbilt team. This ought to be excellent preparation for the trials that usually await highly-drafted quarterbacks. During his career at Vanderbilt he showed himself to be a strong-armed, if only moderately accurate passer.
Cutler has also been quite consistent over his four years. Kyle Boller was a four-year starter too, after all, and so far he’s been a bust. Like Cutler, Boller skyrocketed up draft boards due to a solid senior season and spectacular workouts. But Boller only completed 45 percent of passes prior to his senior year, and despite completing 53 percent as a senior finished his career under 50 percent. That’s not quite as bad as scoring a six on the Wonderlic, but it should still be a red flag for NFL general managers. Cutler, on the other hand, was a 56 percent passer heading into his senior year and completed 59 percent as a senior.
Some critics still question Cutler’s accuracy, arguing that 59 percent as a senior is not really that impressive. The problem with this argument is that it does not consider the context of the numbers. Tim Couch completed 67 percent of his passes in college. At the time, scouts did not realize that Couch was playing for a certified offensive genius, Mike Leach, who now routinely produces 65+ percent passers at Texas Tech. In the decade before Cutler arrived, Vanderbilt’s starting quarterbacks completed 47.6 percent of their passes. For comparision, the quarterbacks before Leinart completed 59.6 percent of their passes, and those prior to Young completed 57.7 percent. This partially indicates that the quarterbacks who preceded Young and Leinart (Major Applewhite, Chris Simms, Carson Palmer, Rob Johnson) were more talented than those who preceded Cutler. But it also reflects the better talent and coaching surrounding quarterbacks at Texas and USC.
It is obviously extremely difficult to be the quarterback of an overmatched team in the SEC. If Vanderbilt played in the MAC, for example, I suspect Cutler’s completion percentage would have been much higher, because Vanderbilt would have been playing teams of comparable quality. Given the system and situation at Vanderbilt, Cutler was actually quite accurate. He’s also quite athletic, with 1,256 college rushing yards. (Remember, sacks count as negative rushing yards in college, making this total even more impressive.)
Cutler will end up being a top ten pick, but the question of where hinges on the Saints. Given the structure of Brees’ contract — which includes a $12 million option bonus due before the 2007 season — the Saints may still be in the market for a quarterback. With Brees on board, they can afford to take someone who is not ready to play right away. It follows that there is a good chance the Saints will swap spots with the Jets and take whatever quarterback makes it to them. The Jets will take their pick of Cutler and Leinart, with the other going to the Titans. The Saints could then draft Vince Young fourth and sit him for a year behind Brees.
My projection system suggests that Cutler will perform somewhere along the lines of Drew Brees or Byron Leftwich (an average of about 2.5 points above replacement per game over the course of his career), and this does not even take into account his running ability. This would make him a solid top-5 choice. The quarterbacks who had the most similar college careers to Cutler in the past ten years are Shaun King and Jake Plummer.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO! WE ARE DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED
LOL
Looking a little farther back, Brett Favre and Dan Marino also had very similar college careers to Cutler. The Favre comparision is particularly interesting as he was overlooked because he did not come from a traditional football powerhouse.
<<~Cool, maybe we're not boned after all!
. . .
For controversial predictions, you need to go to the second and third rounds. The system projects that Clemson’s Charlie Whitehurst will be a good pro, Bowling Green’s Omar Jacobs a solid starter, and Alabama’s Brodie Croyle a bust. But the most interesting projection is for a player who isn’t even in this year’s draft. According to this projection system, Philip Rivers will emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the league over the next couple of years. It turns out that letting Drew Brees go to New Orleans may not have been a mistake after all.
-
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=3774
College Quarterbacks Through the Prism of Statistics
3/23/2006
Guest column by David Lewin
At the top of the NFL draft, every general manager dreams of finding the next Peyton Manning or John Elway, but fears he will end up with the next Joey Harrington or Akili Smith. With that balance of high risk and high reward in mind, there has been plenty of debate about which of this year’s big three quarterback prospects will make the best pro. Conventional wisdom says that Matt Leinart is the most accomplished of the three. In the aftermath of the Rose Bowl, Vince Young was all the rage. Some scouts believe that dark horse Jay Cutler will end up better than both of them.
Everyone knows that in football, statistical analysis is no substitute for scouting, but it can be useful as an addition to scouting. And since scouting has been particularly iffy when dealing with first round quarterbacks — how’s Ryan Leaf these days? — there is a need for a system that could use college statistics to identify players who are more or less likely to become quality NFL starters.
Analysis of college numbers has been a goal of Football Outsiders since its inception, and in the upcoming book Pro Football Prospectus 2006 it will become a reality for the first time. PFP 2006 will introduce a rookie quarterback projection system which uses regression analysis to determine which college statistics indicate that a quarterback will be successful in the NFL, with success measured by Football Outsiders’ DPAR (Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement) statistics (explained here).
College statistics are accumulated in widely different offensive systems against a wide variety of competition, but they are not meaningless when it comes to predicting NFL success. Based on my research, the two most predictive college statistics are completion percentage and games started. Some people have previously looked at college completion percentages, but adding games started to the analysis improves the results significantly. Without games started, for example, statistical analysis would not identify Brett Favre and Dan Marino as top prospects. (There are other factors that help predict quarterback success, of course, like the quality of the NFL team drafting each player.)
This projection system has been very accurate for quarterbacks drafted over the past ten years. As of now, the projection system only considers quarterbacks drafted in the first two rounds. Quarterbacks taken later in the draft are much less likely to have the talent needed to succeed as an NFL starter, and they are much less likely to get an opportunity to prove themselves. For all the NCAA records that Kliff Kingsbury set at Texas Tech, he has completed just one NFL pass. His numbers were inflated by Texas Tech’s system, and he lacks the talent to be an NFL starter. That is why he was drafted in the sixth round, and that is why we have scouts.
With these limitations in mind, here’s a preview of this research with a look at the big three quarterback prospects in this year’s draft, where they might end up, and how they might do once they get there.
Jay Cutler
Cutler is the most mysterious of this year’s top three quarterback prospects. For a while only SEC fans and draft addicts had heard of him, and then suddenly with no warning, Mel Kiper was calling him a potential top-ten pick and comparing him to Brett Favre.
Look at Cutler’s resume, and the first thing that stands out is that he was a four-year starter. Some recent four-year starters coming out of college include Peyton Manning, Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper, Chad Pennington, Drew Brees and Carson Palmer. That’s pretty good company.
The second thing that stands out is that Cutler spent his whole career playing for a physically overmatched Vanderbilt team. This ought to be excellent preparation for the trials that usually await highly-drafted quarterbacks. During his career at Vanderbilt he showed himself to be a strong-armed, if only moderately accurate passer.
Cutler has also been quite consistent over his four years. Kyle Boller was a four-year starter too, after all, and so far he’s been a bust. Like Cutler, Boller skyrocketed up draft boards due to a solid senior season and spectacular workouts. But Boller only completed 45 percent of passes prior to his senior year, and despite completing 53 percent as a senior finished his career under 50 percent. That’s not quite as bad as scoring a six on the Wonderlic, but it should still be a red flag for NFL general managers. Cutler, on the other hand, was a 56 percent passer heading into his senior year and completed 59 percent as a senior.
Some critics still question Cutler’s accuracy, arguing that 59 percent as a senior is not really that impressive. The problem with this argument is that it does not consider the context of the numbers. Tim Couch completed 67 percent of his passes in college. At the time, scouts did not realize that Couch was playing for a certified offensive genius, Mike Leach, who now routinely produces 65+ percent passers at Texas Tech. In the decade before Cutler arrived, Vanderbilt’s starting quarterbacks completed 47.6 percent of their passes. For comparision, the quarterbacks before Leinart completed 59.6 percent of their passes, and those prior to Young completed 57.7 percent. This partially indicates that the quarterbacks who preceded Young and Leinart (Major Applewhite, Chris Simms, Carson Palmer, Rob Johnson) were more talented than those who preceded Cutler. But it also reflects the better talent and coaching surrounding quarterbacks at Texas and USC.
It is obviously extremely difficult to be the quarterback of an overmatched team in the SEC. If Vanderbilt played in the MAC, for example, I suspect Cutler’s completion percentage would have been much higher, because Vanderbilt would have been playing teams of comparable quality. Given the system and situation at Vanderbilt, Cutler was actually quite accurate. He’s also quite athletic, with 1,256 college rushing yards. (Remember, sacks count as negative rushing yards in college, making this total even more impressive.)
Cutler will end up being a top ten pick, but the question of where hinges on the Saints. Given the structure of Brees’ contract — which includes a $12 million option bonus due before the 2007 season — the Saints may still be in the market for a quarterback. With Brees on board, they can afford to take someone who is not ready to play right away. It follows that there is a good chance the Saints will swap spots with the Jets and take whatever quarterback makes it to them. The Jets will take their pick of Cutler and Leinart, with the other going to the Titans. The Saints could then draft Vince Young fourth and sit him for a year behind Brees.
My projection system suggests that Cutler will perform somewhere along the lines of Drew Brees or Byron Leftwich (an average of about 2.5 points above replacement per game over the course of his career), and this does not even take into account his running ability. This would make him a solid top-5 choice. The quarterbacks who had the most similar college careers to Cutler in the past ten years are Shaun King and Jake Plummer.
NOOOOOOOOOOOOO! WE ARE DOOOOOOOOOOOOMED
LOL
Looking a little farther back, Brett Favre and Dan Marino also had very similar college careers to Cutler. The Favre comparision is particularly interesting as he was overlooked because he did not come from a traditional football powerhouse.
<<~Cool, maybe we're not boned after all!
. . .
For controversial predictions, you need to go to the second and third rounds. The system projects that Clemson’s Charlie Whitehurst will be a good pro, Bowling Green’s Omar Jacobs a solid starter, and Alabama’s Brodie Croyle a bust. But the most interesting projection is for a player who isn’t even in this year’s draft. According to this projection system, Philip Rivers will emerge as one of the top quarterbacks in the league over the next couple of years. It turns out that letting Drew Brees go to New Orleans may not have been a mistake after all.
-