The one key stat that explains the problem

[elsid13]

I had a question in my mind last night, after reading all the threads about the time of possession was basically equal between Denver and San Diego, where did this offense rank in last couple of years when came to this stat.

And if if the TOP was in line with with those Denver teams in the past which were top offensive powerhouses. And if you think about this really it is true indicator of how good the offense is, since Denver is a run oriented West Coast Offense designed to control the ball game and limit the opponents opportunities to score. (See it whole team thing)

Key Stats

Source Nfl.com/stat

2006 30:14 Minutes (13th in the league)
2005 32:37 (1st)
2004 32:30 (2nd)
2003 33:53 (1st)


It seems to me the coaching staff needs to figure out a way to fix this problem for Denver to be successfully and get back on track.

[Kaylore]

I'm assuming you meant "time of possession." You want to see a good stat the directly correlates with TOP? Look at our third down conversion percentage, particularly when we pass and that will tell you everything.

[SureShot]

You fix it by converting on 3rd down.

[elsid13]

I'm assuming you meant "time of possession." You want to see a good stat the directly correlates with TOP? Look at our third down conversion percentage, particularly when we pass and that will tell you everything.

Kayore I did, but it more then n 3rd down passing completion, it putting this offense in the place to be successful. And right now neither the coaches or Plummer are doing it. And if Cutler comes in that problem still needs to be solved.

[OrangeShadow]

the problems:Jake,no pass rush,the special teams. case closed.

[Jason in LA]

This is way too broad because there are many problems that goes into this one problem.

[Kaylore]

Kayore I did, but it more then n 3rd down passing completion, it putting this offense in the place to be successful. And right now neither the coaches or Plummer are doing it. And if Cutler comes in that problem still needs to be solved.

You tell me what the coaches are doing wrong and I'll explain why they did it. This isn't on a the coaches, they're doing the best they can with guys they have on the team.

[watermock]

Start Jay...the tribe has spoken.

[Mile High Shack]

You tell me what the coaches are doing wrong and I'll explain why they did it. This isn't on a the coaches, they're doing the best they can with guys they have on the team.

that's why Coyer puts Lang on LT in a blitz situation ;)

[elsid13]

that's why Coyer puts Lang on LT in a blitz situation ;)

Lang had short range zone responsibility if watch the replay you can see Foxworth and Ferguson where responsible for over the top coverage and were complete out of position pre snap.

[Mile High Shack]

Lang had short range zone responsibility if watch the replay you can see Foxworth and Ferguson where responsible for over the top coverage and were complete out of position pre snap.

again

coaching

[SoDak Bronco]

Plummer Sucks Plummer Sucks Plummer Sucks

[Taco John]

Jake is 50% on third downs completing 43 of 86 attempts.

To contrast that, David Carr is 62% on third downs, completing 42 of 68 attempts.

Rookie, Matt Leinart is 52% on third downs, completing 35 of 67 attempts.

Rookie, Bruce radkowski is 53% on third downs, completing 39 of 74 attempts.

Philip Rivers is 65%, completing 57 of 87 attempts.

Tony Romo is an amazing 76% on third downs, completing an impressive 32 of 42. HOLY COW!

But then... Drew Bledsoe was 65% on third downs, completing 37 of 57. But still, Romo managed a full 11% improvement with the same players that Drew had.

In any case, Plummer's performance ranks among the rookies. It was the same story last year, when he completed only 50% of his third down opportunities (62 of 123). It's worth noting that Charlie Frye in 5 starts of his rookie season last year, completed 54% of his third down opportunities. And that's without Kellen Winslow or Braylon Edwards to throw to. This year, he's completing 59% of his third down tries.

Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, our defense is ranked 6th overall in stopping third down conversions, allowing 34.8%. That's an improvement from the year previous, where we finished 13th ranked in the league at 36.7% (which was better than the Pittsburgh defense, who gave up almost a full 40% on third downs. New England gave up 42 percent on third downs last year and ranked 29th in the league! That didn't matter to us though, because we only completed 4 of 14 third down tries against them in the playoffs. Thankfully, our defense held up though, and kept them to only 3 of 11. They weren't able to keep that up against Pittsburgh though, giving up 10 of 16 tries. Conversely, our offense only completed 5 of 11 third downs in that game.

To cut to the chase, I don't think time of possession is the "one key stat that explains the problem." I think third down conversion percentage is.

[elsid13]

TJ

There is direct correlation between the two stats, but the TOP provide overall indicator of issue with the offense.

[Rock Chalk]

Jake Plummer 50%

David Carr 62%

Kubiak means nothing. Stick your heads in the sand you ****ign retards.

[youcandoit1687]

Jake Plummer 50%

David Carr 62%

Kubiak means nothing. Stick your heads in the sand you ****ign retards.

you got some sand in your eyes...

It was the same story last year, when he completed only 50% of his third down opportunities (62 of 123).

[broncogary]

Jake Plummer 50%

David Carr 62%

Kubiak means nothing. Stick your heads in the sand you ****ign retards.

The only thing I can figure is the **** stands for "fore."

[Taco John]

Jake Plummer 50%

David Carr 62%

Kubiak means nothing. Stick your heads in the sand you ****ign retards.



I'll never understand why you feel the need to berate people. I'm sure it's some sort of compensation mechanism, but I don't understand why you feel you need the crutch.

In any rate, you're absolutely right that Kubiak is a great quarterback coach. Consider that last year, Carr was sitting with a 53% third down conversion rating (which is better than what Jake had last year WITH Kubiak -- go figure). That's almost a full 10% improvement that Kubes is getting out of Carr. Impressive.

[youcandoit1687]

I'll never understand why you feel the need to berate people. I'm sure it's some sort of compensation mechanism, but I don't understand why you feel you need the crutch.

In any rate, you're absolutely right that Kubiak is a great quarterback coach. Consider that last year, Carr was sitting with a 53% third down conversion rating (which is better than what Jake had last year WITH Kubiak -- go figure). That's almost a full 10% improvement that Kubes is getting out of Carr. Impressive.

sounds like it just translates into carr being younger and absorbing more of what kubes tells him. any chance you could pull up plummer's third down efficiency pre-kubeS?

[Kaylore]

Kubiak is awesome. I believe he will be able to turn the Texans around after a few years of getting the guys they need. It will take him at least two offseasons to clean up that mess, but between Mario, DeMeco Ryans and Carr they have a good core group of players to build their team around.

[elsid13]

Kubiak is awesome. I believe he will be able to turn the Texans around after a few years of getting the guys they need. It will take him at least two offseasons to clean up that mess, but between Mario, DeMeco Ryans and Carr they have a good core group of players to build their team around.

Kubiak and Smith have learned how to do the right thing when comes to a team. I bet the next 1st draft choice for them will another DE to go opposite Mario.

[broncogary]

Kubiak and Smith have learned how to do the right thing when comes to a team. I bet the next 1st draft choice for them will another DE to go opposite Mario.

Hahaha! Smith was working for the Broncos when the Texans drafted Mario.

[elsid13]

Hahaha! Smith was working for the Broncos when the Texans drafted Mario.

I known, but Kubiak had input to that decision. I am sure that Smith and Kubes are on the same page for what need on that team. Moses or Adams opposite William will help them against the completion in thier division.

[Taco John]

sounds like it just translates into carr being younger and absorbing more of what kubes tells him. any chance you could pull up plummer's third down efficiency pre-kubeS?


Hmmm... That's as easy as ESPN only has splits that go back to 2003. The NFL only has splits available for this year. You'd think they'd have an entire database available that spans at least 10 years, but no dice.

In any case, here's what I dug up.

In 2002 (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/3895/situational;_ylt=AuG_SPsjmJssnxrUuAGB8AX.uLYF?year =2002), his last year with the Cardinals, Jake completed 86 of 168 on 3rd down attempts (they combine them for some reason). This is a 50% conversion percentage Pre-Kubiak. The following year with Kubiak, he was at 56%.

I can't find any splits earlier than 2000, unfortunately, but here's what I did find:

Pre-Kubiak:
2000 - 63% third downs
2001 - 54% third downs
2002 - 51% third downs

Post-Kubiak
2003 - 56% third downs
2004 - 52% third downs
2005 - 50% Third downs
2006 - 50% Third downs (to date)


Over the length of his career: 53% on third downs

Over the last 3 years: 50.7% on third downs




You can view his career situational stats here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/3895/situational;_ylt=AuG_SPsjmJssnxrUuAGB8AX.uLYF?year =career


Use the drop down at the top to change years.

[broncogary]

I don't know that they learned to draft DE's with the Broncos. Or maybe they see the mistakes that the Broncos made.

[elsid13]

I don't know that they learned to draft DE's with the Broncos. Or maybe they see the mistakes that the Broncos made.

it pretty easy to get DEs with talent when stuck in the top 10 draft choices, it become harder and harder the further you are from the top of the draft.

[broncogary]

I should also point out to you that everyone down here thinks Kubiak blew the game when he passed on 3rd and 2 on the Texans last possession. It was sort of reminiscent of the Bronco/NE game a few years back when we had Kannell throwing on third and 2 from their 32 yard line, and then punted into the end zone on 4th for a net 12 yard field position difference.

[spdirty]

Id like to find a stat that says "3 and out percentage" and see where we rank there.

[broncogary]

it pretty easy to get DEs with talent when stuck in the top 10 draft choices, it become harder and harder the further you are from the top of the draft.

The Broncos had the 10th pick in 2000. We got Deltha O'Neal. Oh, and the first pick in that draft was Courtney Brown. So its not exactly easy.

[youcandoit1687]

Hmmm... That's as easy as ESPN only has splits that go back to 2003. The NFL only has splits available for this year. You'd think they'd have an entire database available that spans at least 10 years, but no dice.

In any case, here's what I dug up.

In 2002 (http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/3895/situational;_ylt=AuG_SPsjmJssnxrUuAGB8AX.uLYF?year =2002), his last year with the Cardinals, Jake completed 86 of 168 on 3rd down attempts (they combine them for some reason). This is a 50% conversion percentage Pre-Kubiak. The following year with Kubiak, he was at 56%.

I can't find any splits earlier than 2000, unfortunately, but here's what I did find:

Pre-Kubiak:
2000 - 63% third downs
2001 - 54% third downs
2002 - 51% third downs

Post-Kubiak
2003 - 56% third downs
2004 - 52% third downs
2005 - 50% Third downs
2006 - 50% Third downs (to date)


Over the length of his career: 53% on third downs

Over the last 3 years: 50.7% on third downs




You can view his career situational stats here:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/players/3895/situational;_ylt=AuG_SPsjmJssnxrUuAGB8AX.uLYF?year =career


Use the drop down at the top to change years.


not any real distinct pattern there other than jake plays best when he is first with a team then gradually goes down hill OR jake began to taper off in his career, kubiak taught him some new tricks, but he reverted and continued his fall. whatever the reason, it is inconsistant and still low even at his relative highs. to put it into calculus terms: his relative maximums are no where near the absolute maximums and his relative minimums are close to the absolute minimums. anybody remember their calculus?

[elsid13]

The Broncos had the 10th pick in 2000. We got Deltha O'Neal. Oh, and the first pick in that draft was Courtney Brown. So its not exactly easy.

Detla was the 15th pick and the Brown is very talented but injuries that have hamstrung his career. Denver traded out of the 10 position with Baltimore for additional picks, and because they couldn't get Cory Simon or Urachler.

[elsid13]

not any real distinct pattern there other than jake plays best when he is first with a team then gradually goes down hill OR jake began to taper off in his career, kubiak taught him some new tricks, but he reverted and continued his fall. whatever the reason, it is inconsistant and still low even at his relative highs. to put it into calculus terms: his relative maximums are no where near the absolute maximums and his relative minimums are close to the absolute minimums. anybody remember their calculus?

It more likely that DCs now have enough film on him in the system to understand what he does well and what he doesn't. SD stayed very disciplined the entire game and stayed in thier pass lanes and didn't over play the run at all. Remember the 6 yard loss on Nash?

[DB84FAN]

It more likely that DCs now have enough film on him in the system to understand what he does well and what he doesn't. SD stayed very disciplined the entire game and stayed in thier pass lanes and didn't over play the run at all. Remember the 6 yard loss on Nash?

elsid... you said it on game day, if you start the thread denver will lose.... did u forget that u started the thread and someone recreated it later... hmm, i know why denver lost. u r just making up stories now... LOL....

[elsid13]

elsid... you said it on game day, if you start the thread denver will lose.... did u forget that u started the thread and someone recreated it later... hmm, i know why denver lost. u r just making up stories now... LOL....

Naw I was just lazy, and didn't want to get out of the chat room. Beside see post three on the offical game thread, and we all know who to blame.


But I will never start another game day thread :~ohyah!:

[SureShot]

Id like to find a stat that says "3 and out percentage" and see where we rank there.

We have had 25 3 and outs out of 108 drives, which ranks surpringly 12th in the league.

[RunSilentRunDeep]

3rd down QB rating. In your face Eli Manning!!!

1 Manning 120.2
2 Rivers 107.5
3 Bulger 96.3
4 Favre 96.3
5 Pennington 93.3
6 Bledsoe 92.9
7 A. Smith 91.7
8 Brees 91.0
9 Carr 88.6
10 Brunell 89.6
11 Gradkowski 83.2
12 Brady 82.3
13 McNabb 80.8
14 McNair 80.5
15 Leinart 79.8
16 Palmer 72.8
17 Vick 72.7
18 Roethlisberger 72.4
19 Frye 72.3
20 Leftwich 72.2
21 Plummer 71.3
22 Walter 71.1
23 Br. Johnson 70.9
24 Huard 70.6
25 Grossman 67.3
26 Kitna 63.6
27 Harrington 56.1
28 Young 53.7
29 Losman 52.7
30 Manning 46.1
31 Delhomme 45.0

[elsid13]

3rd down QB rating. In your face Eli Manning!!!

1 Manning 120.2
2 Rivers 107.5
3 Bulger 96.3
4 Favre 96.3
5 Pennington 93.3
6 Bledsoe 92.9
7 A. Smith 91.7 8 Brees 91.0
9 Carr 88.6
10 Brunell 89.6
11 Gradkowski 83.2
12 Brady 82.3
13 McNabb 80.8
14 McNair 80.5
15 Leinart 79.8
16 Palmer 72.8
17 Vick 72.7
18 Roethlisberger 72.4
19 Frye 72.3
20 Leftwich 72.2
21 Plummer 71.3
22 Walter 71.1
23 Br. Johnson 70.9
24 Huard 70.6
25 Grossman 67.3
26 Kitna 63.6
27 Harrington 56.1
28 Young 53.7
29 Losman 52.7
30 Manning 46.1
31 Delhomme 45.0

Any time you have Vick and Alex Smith in front for completion rating is that good thing?

[youcandoit1687]

It more likely that DCs now have enough film on him in the system to understand what he does well and what he doesn't. SD stayed very disciplined the entire game and stayed in thier pass lanes and didn't over play the run at all. Remember the 6 yard loss on Nash?

yeah i brought that up in another thread. i think thats the first time that a team has camped their OLBs out there(granted it was a 3-4) and challenged jake to beat them from the pocket. im sure there were a ton of passing lanes judging by where those OLBs were most of the game, it was practically a 5-2 from what i saw. if goonther has any bit of intelligence in him he will do something to contain the outside as a first priority.

[loborugger]

Does ANYONE honestly believe that only one stat can explain the problem? Honestly? There is a whole lot going on, folks. Kubes is gone, Jake is looking over his shoulder, its hard to follow a career year, etc... One stat doesnt cover the whole gambit.