dragondawg
10-26-2006, 10:28 PM
Denver may be able to run against Indy, but they don’t ever score
Sunday is a showdown between the AFC’s two best teams, but also a confrontation of conflicting styles and a measuring stick for both the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts.
It is, in other words, a game about many things, though it all revolves around one concept — offense vs. defense
The Colts have had one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses for years, which has continued this season despite the loss of running back Edgerrin James to free agency. They are third in total offense, Peyton Manning leads the NFL in QB rating and all AFC quarterbacks in touchdowns and yards.
The Broncos have always been a more balanced mix of offense and defense. Yet their success this season is due to one of the league’s stingiest defense, which allows only 7.3 points per game and has given up but two touchdowns in six games.
It has yet to pass the acid test, though. It failed that test in the playoffs in 2003 and 2004, when the Colts dismembered the Broncos by a combined score of 90-34. That has long irritated Denver’s veteran defensive coordinator Larry Coyer, which is why he is looking forward to the confrontation most teams might like to avoid — one with an offense that averages 28.5 points per game.
To make the contrast between the two approaches clearer consider these two facts: Denver has allowed only two touchdowns all season; the Colts' defense has held only two opponents to fewer than 17 points. When one adds in that Indianapolis' offense averages more than twice as many points as Denver's 13.2 per game, it leads to a classic question of physics — who wins out, the immovable object (Denver's defense) or the irresistible force (the Colts' offense)?
"I would think this is kind of what you live for,'' Coyer said. "I'm sure they feel the same way. Let's crank her up and go.''
The Broncos’ formula will be its usual mix — focus on run defense, try to reach the quarterback with a four-man rush instead of blitzing, run the ball conservatively on offense and, perhaps most of all, get the Colts off the field on third down. The Colts’ task to simply outscore a mediocre offensive team may seem simple, but Denver is a team that runs the ball like a tank battalion. It averages 143.3 yards a game and will be opposed by a Colt run defense that is last in the league in average yards per carry allowed (5.2) and next to last in rushing yards allowed (158 per game).
Thus, if Denver can limit Indianapolis' offensive chances by controlling the ball on the ground and limiting Manning on third down, the advantage in this early showdown for AFC supremacy would seem to lean its way.
"With the offense they have, letting them stay on the field to pick you apart on third down, it'll be a long game,'' said Denver's Demetrin Veal this week.
No kidding. One reason the Colts thrashed the Broncos is those two playoff meetings is that they converted 13-of-18 third-down attempts. That’s one of the Colts’ most telling stats. Indianapolis was tops in third-down conversions last season and are at the top of the list again this year at 57.3 percent (43-of-75), the only team in football over 50 percent. Yet in the seven games in which the Colts scored fewer than 20 points during Tony Dungy’s five-year tenure, that conversion rate is 36.8 percent.
That’s where the Broncos’ defense is focusing. It must not only stuff the run, but also harass Manning enough to disrupt the passing game, something they were singularly unable to do in those playoff losses.
"You pretty much know what the key is going into the game and that's to get to Peyton any way possible,'' admits Broncos' defensive back Sam Brandon. "You got to get there and get there quick.''
That's easier said than done. Manning has been sacked only seven times this season. If the Broncos can’t get to him, they may fall behind and not be able to rally. Denver has scored just seven touchdowns this season on 69 possessions.
Then again, the Denver defense has allowed only two touchdowns on 65 possessions and hasn’t allowed a team to reach double digits since its season opener. Can the Colts hang 28 on a defense like that?
We can move the ball, we can score points, we can do all the things that we want to do and not turn the ball over very much,'' said Colts' coach Tony Dungy. The numbers bear him out. Since his arrival in Indianapolis the Colts' turnovers have decreased (12, then 8, 8, 6) and just four this season (two lost fumbles, two interceptions).
Classic matchup of differing styles. The prevailing style will have the edge on home field advantage for the playoffs, while making a loud statement about its own ability to win playing the way it wants.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15432241/
Sunday is a showdown between the AFC’s two best teams, but also a confrontation of conflicting styles and a measuring stick for both the Denver Broncos and Indianapolis Colts.
It is, in other words, a game about many things, though it all revolves around one concept — offense vs. defense
The Colts have had one of the NFL’s most prolific offenses for years, which has continued this season despite the loss of running back Edgerrin James to free agency. They are third in total offense, Peyton Manning leads the NFL in QB rating and all AFC quarterbacks in touchdowns and yards.
The Broncos have always been a more balanced mix of offense and defense. Yet their success this season is due to one of the league’s stingiest defense, which allows only 7.3 points per game and has given up but two touchdowns in six games.
It has yet to pass the acid test, though. It failed that test in the playoffs in 2003 and 2004, when the Colts dismembered the Broncos by a combined score of 90-34. That has long irritated Denver’s veteran defensive coordinator Larry Coyer, which is why he is looking forward to the confrontation most teams might like to avoid — one with an offense that averages 28.5 points per game.
To make the contrast between the two approaches clearer consider these two facts: Denver has allowed only two touchdowns all season; the Colts' defense has held only two opponents to fewer than 17 points. When one adds in that Indianapolis' offense averages more than twice as many points as Denver's 13.2 per game, it leads to a classic question of physics — who wins out, the immovable object (Denver's defense) or the irresistible force (the Colts' offense)?
"I would think this is kind of what you live for,'' Coyer said. "I'm sure they feel the same way. Let's crank her up and go.''
The Broncos’ formula will be its usual mix — focus on run defense, try to reach the quarterback with a four-man rush instead of blitzing, run the ball conservatively on offense and, perhaps most of all, get the Colts off the field on third down. The Colts’ task to simply outscore a mediocre offensive team may seem simple, but Denver is a team that runs the ball like a tank battalion. It averages 143.3 yards a game and will be opposed by a Colt run defense that is last in the league in average yards per carry allowed (5.2) and next to last in rushing yards allowed (158 per game).
Thus, if Denver can limit Indianapolis' offensive chances by controlling the ball on the ground and limiting Manning on third down, the advantage in this early showdown for AFC supremacy would seem to lean its way.
"With the offense they have, letting them stay on the field to pick you apart on third down, it'll be a long game,'' said Denver's Demetrin Veal this week.
No kidding. One reason the Colts thrashed the Broncos is those two playoff meetings is that they converted 13-of-18 third-down attempts. That’s one of the Colts’ most telling stats. Indianapolis was tops in third-down conversions last season and are at the top of the list again this year at 57.3 percent (43-of-75), the only team in football over 50 percent. Yet in the seven games in which the Colts scored fewer than 20 points during Tony Dungy’s five-year tenure, that conversion rate is 36.8 percent.
That’s where the Broncos’ defense is focusing. It must not only stuff the run, but also harass Manning enough to disrupt the passing game, something they were singularly unable to do in those playoff losses.
"You pretty much know what the key is going into the game and that's to get to Peyton any way possible,'' admits Broncos' defensive back Sam Brandon. "You got to get there and get there quick.''
That's easier said than done. Manning has been sacked only seven times this season. If the Broncos can’t get to him, they may fall behind and not be able to rally. Denver has scored just seven touchdowns this season on 69 possessions.
Then again, the Denver defense has allowed only two touchdowns on 65 possessions and hasn’t allowed a team to reach double digits since its season opener. Can the Colts hang 28 on a defense like that?
We can move the ball, we can score points, we can do all the things that we want to do and not turn the ball over very much,'' said Colts' coach Tony Dungy. The numbers bear him out. Since his arrival in Indianapolis the Colts' turnovers have decreased (12, then 8, 8, 6) and just four this season (two lost fumbles, two interceptions).
Classic matchup of differing styles. The prevailing style will have the edge on home field advantage for the playoffs, while making a loud statement about its own ability to win playing the way it wants.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15432241/