The Book on Jake (Ahead Jake/Behind Jake)

[Hulamau]

This article sums up the 'Good Jake - Bad Jake' paradox. Lets hope we get a full dose of the Good Jake tonight!

Precisely what many of us here have been saying for a long while.

Jake is best or trailing the rest
By Mike Klis
Denver Post Staff Writer
10/09/2006 12:10:54 AM MDT

When his team is ahead, no NFL quarterback is better than Plummer. But when the Broncos fall behind, the opposite is true.

Broncos fans might have suspected as much. Now there are statistics to prove it.

No other NFL quarterback has his performance so tied to the scoreboard as the Broncos' Jake Plummer.

When playing with the lead, Plummer is the league's most efficient quarterback statistically. The best. Move over, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady. Make way for Jake.

But when the Broncos are behind, Plummer is the league's least-efficient quarterback. No. 32. Out of 32. Look, up there: It's Tennessee's Kerry Collins and the Raiders' Andrew Walter.

No. 1 and No. 32 are about as different as winning and losing.

"When you're behind, you might try to do a few more things that you normally don't do when you're ahead," Plummer said. "It depends on how far you're behind. If you're within striking distance, obviously you're playing close to your same game plan. But if you're way behind, there are going to be more calls trying to pass downfield."

This year's sampling might be small, but it also marks a continuation of a Plummer trend. In 2004, Plummer posted a 105.1 quarterback rating when ahead, 72.6 when behind. Last season, his ahead/behind ratings were 95.5 and 71.9.

Good Jake/Bad Jake? It's more accurate to call him Ahead Jake/Behind Jake.

Given this, it may behoove the Broncos to get an early lead tonight against the Baltimore Ravens when the teams meet at Invesco Field at Mile High. There's one more stat underlining the importance of an early lead: The Ravens through four games have allowed three second-half points.

"With his abilities to move around and make plays, Jake's going to be one of those guys who goes out and tries to win the football game," said former quarterback Joe Theismann, who will provide color commentary for the game tonight. "Like a Brett Favre, when you're behind, great athletes want it on their shoulders to win the game. It just so happens that in our sport, sometimes the less you do the better."

Before Plummer joined Denver, he spent the first six years of his career known somewhat as a Comeback Kid in Arizona.

Entering last season, his 19 game-winning comebacks in the fourth quarter or overtime were the most among active quarterbacks.

"The 'Comeback Kid' might have been a misnomer because to win in Arizona you had to come back just about every time there," Plummer said. "Coming back became a nature of trying to survive, whereas here, we get a lot of leads."

Plummer has engineered just two late, come-from-behind victories the past two seasons, yet the Broncos are 15-4 in that span.

That's the good news about this Ahead Jake/Behind Jake contrast. Since Plummer has been in Denver, the Broncos have been ahead more than not.

In these situations, Plummer's job is to complement the Broncos' noted running game with check-off completions, mixed with the chain-moving, intermediate passes.

The problem is, it's when the team is behind that all eyes are on the quarterback. After the AFC championship game last season, fans might not have considered the Broncos were trailing Pittsburgh 17-3 before Plummer threw his first interception. More likely, talk focused on how that first interception quickly led to another score that made it 24-3 by halftime.

"It's when you're behind that legends and legacies are made," Theismann said. "You don't become a legend when you're ahead."

Think all quarterbacks play better with a lead? Think again. Of the NFL's 32 passing-title qualifiers this year, 17 have higher ratings when trailing.

This group includes Baltimore's Steve McNair, who has led the Ravens to back-to-back, final-second victories.

"Be patient. Take one play at a time and do your best on that play," McNair said about how he approaches a series when his team is behind. "And every play you run, you forget about it and go on to the next one."

There was a time when Plummer was asked about how he was able to raise his play when the game appeared lost. In 2003, his first year with the Broncos, Plummer had an 82.5 rating when they led, and 100.6 when he stared down a deficit.

This would suggest the Comeback Kid is not dead inside Plummer, merely dormant.

"Those type of stats are for people who burn the midnight oil," Plummer said. "I just go play ball."

[24champ]

Good article Hula, going to be a test tommorow for Jake and Co to overcome this ratbird defense.

[Hulamau]

This article highlights exactly why Shanny should have no hesitation to put Cutler in when Jake and company drop behind by more than 10 points. Jake has never come back that far while a Bronco and Cutler will easliy give us the best chance to pull a victory out of otherwise certain defeat under those circumstances.

It would be nightmare on defenses too having to prepare for two very different QBs in the outside chance they see both in a game.

[Northman]

Great article, and Theismann is totally on point there.

[meangene]

Another thing about Jake is he is horrible throwing a wet football. If the weather is wet as predicted, we may have another problem.

[BigPlayShay]

Another thing about Jake is he is horrible throwing a wet football. If the weather is wet as predicted, we may have another problem.

Did you see the Philly game last year?

[meangene]

Did you see the Philly game last year?

I was there. It only started raining late and Jake was throwing ducks. Fortunately the one to Devoe was so bad it got the defender out of position and he ran past him to the house. Did you see the Skins game last year?

[Jesterhole]

I hate playing the Ravens in prime time. For whatever reason, we always suck when we play them. Even if we win, it's some squeaker where we look bad all game but find some way to win or let the Ravens beat themselves.

Man, for once I'd like to see a game where we put two up on them quick and the game is never in doubt. Remember when we used to do that to teams on a regular basis? Football was so much easier on the heart back in those days...

[Taco John]

This stat is totally unsurprising and a big part of my criticism of Jake during the post season. This is the stat that I'd bet is responsible for Shanahan bringing Cutler in, despite Jake's impressive regular season record.

[loborugger]

Correct me if I am wrong (I am too lazy to look it up) doesnt Jake have more come from behind victories than any other active QB?

To which of course the comment is, "Well Jake has to come from behind cuz he put his team in a hole."

But, wait, the stats show that he doesnt put his team in a hole until they are already in a hole.

But, wait, he has more come from behind victories than anyone else.

And, suddenly, I feel like a dog going for its tail.

I know this. Jake is a gamer. He tries hard. What he lacks in talent (laser accuracy, strong arm) he tries to make up in effort. His teammates like him. And while he may not be God's gift to the QB position, I like him. And I dont need stats to figure that out. Cutler's time will come (maybe, he is still an unproven commodity) but til then I like Jake.

Enough said

[Bronco Billy]

I hate playing the Ravens in prime time. For whatever reason, we always suck when we play them. Even if we win, it's some squeaker where we look bad all game but find some way to win or let the Ravens beat themselves.

Man, for once I'd like to see a game where we put two up on them quick and the game is never in doubt. Remember when we used to do that to teams on a regular basis? Football was so much easier on the heart back in those days...

My brother-in-law and I were just talking about this yesterday. He's a Bears fan and wanted to know how Denver would do today. He's got a 12-game parlay this week and went 11 for 11 on Sunday so he needs Denver to win to cash out.

[Bronco Billy]

Correct me if I am wrong (I am too lazy to look it up) doesnt Jake have more come from behind victories than any other active QB?



I don't know for sure, but that's what the article stated.

[Taco John]

Correct me if I am wrong (I am too lazy to look it up) doesnt Jake have more come from behind victories than any other active QB?


That's a great stat if you're a Cardinal fan. But I'm not. I don't give a crap what Jake did with the Cardinals by way of come from behind victories.

How many of those come from behind victories came with the Broncos?

[bronco militia]

Down and out?

The Broncos are 2-14 in games in which they have trailed when entering the fourth quarter the past three seasons, with all but three of those games featuring Jake Plummer at quarterback. Ties entering fourth not included.

Date Opponent Deficit in 4th Result

Sep. 10, 2006 St. Louis 15-7 18-10 loss

Jan. 22, 2006 *Pittsburgh 24-10 34-17 loss

Sep. 18, 2005 San Diego 14-10 20-17 win

Sep. 11, 2005 Miami 13-3 34-10 loss

Jan. 9, 2005 *Indianapolis 35-17 49-24 loss

Dec. 19, 2004 Kansas City 35-10 45-17 loss

Dec. 5, 2004 San Diego 20-7 20-17 loss

Nov. 28, 2004 Oakland 13-10 25-24 loss

Oct. 31, 2004 Atlanta 27-14 41-28 loss

Oct. 25, 2004 Cincinnati 20-10 23-10 loss

Oct. 10, 2004 Carolina 17-13 20-17 win

Sept. 19, 2004 Jacksonville 7-6 7-6 loss

Jan. 4, 2004 *Indianapolis 41-3 41-10 loss

Dec. 28, 2003 **Green Bay 17-3 31-3 loss

Oct. 26, 2003 **Baltimore 9-6 26-6 loss

Oct. 19, 2003 **Minnesota 28-10 28-20 loss* Postseason; ** Plummer Did Not Play

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm...986392,00.html

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?p=1271562#post1271562

[elsid13]

Correct me if I am wrong (I am too lazy to look it up) doesnt Jake have more come from behind victories than any other active QB?

To which of course the comment is, "Well Jake has to come from behind cuz he put his team in a hole."

But, wait, the stats show that he doesnt put his team in a hole until they are already in a hole.

But, wait, he has more come from behind victories than anyone else.

And, suddenly, I feel like a dog going for its tail.

I know this. Jake is a gamer. He tries hard. What he lacks in talent (laser accuracy, strong arm) he tries to make up in effort. His teammates like him. And while he may not be God's gift to the QB position, I like him. And I dont need stats to figure that out. Cutler's time will come (maybe, he is still an unproven commodity) but til then I like Jake.

Enough said


Plummer has ZERO comebacks as the Broncos QB, . He come close a couple of times, but has yet to lead the team to win win losing going to into 4th. I guess you could consider both the Dallas game last year, and KC game this year, but I believe Denver was tied in both going into the 4th and won in OT

EDIT I was wrong Denver was trailing going to 4th against KC and that would count as come back - Didn't see the game- So Plummer has 1 comeback as Bronco

[bronco militia]

Plummer has ZERO comebacks as the Broncos QB, . He come close a couple of times, but has yet to lead the team to win win losing going to into 4th. I guess you could consider both the Dallas game last year, and KC game this year, but I believe Denver was tied in both going into the 4th and won in OT


not true...see above post

[freak6]

Cutler's rating when behind is over 100 so far, he should therefore be plugged in if the Ravens score on thier first possesion.

[Bronco Billy]

Cutler's rating when behind is over 100 so far, he should therefore be plugged in if the Ravens score on thier first possesion.

Cutler's going to be a very good, if not great, QB. However, Baltimore will kill him if he enters the game before it's a blowout. This should not be his first game. Maybe next week.

[Bronco Billy]

Down and out?

The Broncos are 2-14 in games in which they have trailed when entering the fourth quarter the past three seasons, with all but three of those games featuring Jake Plummer at quarterback. Ties entering fourth not included.

Date Opponent Deficit in 4th Result

Sep. 10, 2006 St. Louis 15-7 18-10 loss Blame Plummer.

Jan. 22, 2006 *Pittsburgh 24-10 34-17 loss Not on Plummer, Pitts. kicked our @$$.

Sep. 18, 2005 San Diego 14-10 20-17 win Thank you Champ!!!

Sep. 11, 2005 Miami 13-3 34-10 loss Blame Plummer.

Jan. 9, 2005 *Indianapolis 35-17 49-24 loss Not on Plummer, Indy kicked our @$$ again.

Dec. 19, 2004 Kansas City 35-10 45-17 loss

Dec. 5, 2004 San Diego 20-7 20-17 loss

Nov. 28, 2004 Oakland 13-10 25-24 loss

Oct. 31, 2004 Atlanta 27-14 41-28 loss Not on Plummer. We scored 28 and still lost.

Oct. 25, 2004 Cincinnati 20-10 23-10 loss

Oct. 10, 2004 Carolina 17-13 20-17 win

Sept. 19, 2004 Jacksonville 7-6 7-6 loss Not on Plummer. RB fumbled game away in FG range. Blame Shanahan for not kicking FG.

Jan. 4, 2004 *Indianapolis 41-3 41-10 loss Not on Plummer, Indy kicked our @$$.

Dec. 28, 2003 **Green Bay 17-3 31-3 loss

Oct. 26, 2003 **Baltimore 9-6 26-6 loss

Oct. 19, 2003 **Minnesota 28-10 28-20 loss* Postseason; ** Plummer Did Not Play

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm...986392,00.html

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?p=1271562#post1271562

a

[freak6]

Cutler's going to be a very good, if not great, QB. However, Baltimore will kill him if he enters the game before it's a blowout. This should not be his first game. Maybe next week.

I was kidding B.B., but this article is on point with what the Cutler Crew around here has been saying.

We gotta jump on these guys early.

Shanny has had 2 weeks to gameplan for the Ravens, I am very confident in our first drive of scripted plays will garner us points.

I predict Brandon Marshall makes a big play for us tonight.

[Sassy]

Oops...sorry Hula...I'll delete mine. Didn't realize it had been posted already ;D

[Blueflame]

Down and out?

The Broncos are 2-14 in games in which they have trailed when entering the fourth quarter the past three seasons, with all but three of those games featuring Jake Plummer at quarterback. Ties entering fourth not included.

Date Opponent Deficit in 4th Result

Sep. 10, 2006 St. Louis 15-7 18-10 loss

Jan. 22, 2006 *Pittsburgh 24-10 34-17 loss

Sep. 18, 2005 San Diego 14-10 20-17 win

Sep. 11, 2005 Miami 13-3 34-10 loss

Jan. 9, 2005 *Indianapolis 35-17 49-24 loss

Dec. 19, 2004 Kansas City 35-10 45-17 loss

Dec. 5, 2004 San Diego 20-7 20-17 loss

Nov. 28, 2004 Oakland 13-10 25-24 loss

Oct. 31, 2004 Atlanta 27-14 41-28 loss

Oct. 25, 2004 Cincinnati 20-10 23-10 loss

Oct. 10, 2004 Carolina 17-13 20-17 win

Sept. 19, 2004 Jacksonville 7-6 7-6 loss

Jan. 4, 2004 *Indianapolis 41-3 41-10 loss

Dec. 28, 2003 **Green Bay 17-3 31-3 loss

Oct. 26, 2003 **Baltimore 9-6 26-6 loss

Oct. 19, 2003 **Minnesota 28-10 28-20 loss* Postseason; ** Plummer Did Not Play

http://www.rockymountainnews.com/drm...986392,00.html

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?p=1271562#post1271562

Interesting... in both of the wins, the team only trailed by four points at the beginning of the fourth quarter...

[Lidderer]

Doing a random backtrack on a top tier qb, one finds that donovan McNabb is 0-6 in his last 6 opportunities to come back when trailing in the 4th quarter, so I'm not sure how revealing or telling such information is re: Jake.

[Hulamau]

not true...see above post

Other than the last KC game where it was very close in the 4th and they we inept on offense as well, JAke hasnt overcome a 4th quarter hole more than 3 or 4 points, nor has the team overcome more than a 11 point deficit at halftime to win. The Charger game at home last year was the closest but that was almost entirely due to Champs big INT return TD and Coyer unleashing the Hounds of Hell on defense and blitzing Bress into the turf and much less on the offense and Plummer.

The article absolutely hit the nail on the head. Jake will always be good enough to get the hopes flying high and win a bunch of games, and with our personel we should be a solid contender each year he is here, but the irony of Jakes achilles heal of an arm on such an otherwise likeable and loveable hero is a real Greek tragedy.

Taco is right too that this fundamental limitation is precisely why Culter is here.

The article also rightly said no one becomes a legend from playing well with the lead. That is a team glory to be good enough to often play with the lead, but the individual effort is what stands out most in come from behind victories and except in rare occasions a QB almost always has to go through such a gauntlet and rescue a few games each year against tough team and survive to win it all in this league.

The thing is, Jake now has the benefit of every possible advantage and maybe he finally overcomes that last hurdle, but going from best at playing with a lead, which means he is playing within his defined comfort zone, and dropping all the way to DEAD LAST over his career here in Denver when playing from behind is extremely revealing of Jake's quandry.

The question we may all see answered some time this year is whether Shanny will acknowledge the fact, if and when we get in truly dire straights and are down by 10+ points in the second half and need a real spark (perhaps conveniently holding the clipboard) to have a chance to win, or will he bury his head in the sand and chalk it all up to next year?

Lets hope it never comes to that and Jake can continue to play like he did the last game, and not the first two, the remainder of the year. I'd love nothing more than for Jake to ride out into the sunset with a Lombardi Trophy under his belt and final redemption for a decent guy.

But if past precident rears it's head once again, I think it will be incresaingly hard for Shanny not to go with the kid, at least in those dire cicumstances. That added pressure will be particularly true with guys like Leinert and now Young playing and doing much better than expected.

Toinight is certainly a key test and I trust we will pass this one.

[Hulamau]

Doing a random backtrack on a top tier qb, one finds that donovan McNabb is 0-6 in his last 6 opportunities to come back when trailing in the 4th quarter, so I'm not sure how revealing or telling such information is re: Jake.

Many of those 6 games For Donovan were last year with an absolutely decimated team around him and playing all year with a sports hernia that eventually required surgery (another example of how raw stats can mislead when not interpreted in context). McNabb has come from behind a number of times to win, while Plummer has not and while Jake has been here we have been blessed, for the most part, with comparitively few injuries to key playmakers and very good overall teams around him.

The striking and very telling thing in these stats, is going from first to worst just based on the scoreboard!! That reveals Shanny has done a masterful job at building this team and our game plans around minimizing Jakes significant limiations while maximizing his significant strengths.

The $64 dollar question is will that ever be good enough, or will it remain a bridge too far as I suspect? I'd be tickled pink to be proven wrong on this one and see Jake become a complete player, and the good news is we all get to find out in the next 12 weeks which it will be!

[Kaylore]

You could read that stat another way that I think is more accurate. I don't think it's so much that if we're behind Jake plays bad as it is when Jake has a bad day, we're playing from behind. In '03 we had Portis and Sharpe - two guys that could take the pressure off Jake when we were behind. That's part of why his rating was higher in those games. Jake is what he is. He is a winner and does some things very well but is in that "second tier" of QB's in the league, though towards the top of that second tier.

[Taco John]

Doing a random backtrack on a top tier qb, one finds that donovan McNabb is 0-6 in his last 6 opportunities to come back when trailing in the 4th quarter, so I'm not sure how revealing or telling such information is re: Jake.


Is McNabb anywhere near the worst quarterback in the league when the other team has a lead?

[bloodsunday]

Correct me if I am wrong (I am too lazy to look it up) doesnt Jake have more come from behind victories than any other active QB?

Your not wrong. But he has none of those as a Bronco. Whether its our offensive system (it puts a ton of pressure on playcalling, line blocking etc as well) or Jake's faults, he has not been able to pull of the come from behind win in Denver.

[dbroncos31]

Date Opponent Deficit in 4th Result



Jan. 22, 2006 *Pittsburgh 24-10 34-17 loss this was actually 24-3

Sep. 18, 2005 San Diego 14-10 20-17 win

Nov. 28, 2004 Oakland 13-10 25-24 loss can't be blamed on jake. he had us in position for the win, but watts dropped a Td and the FG was blocked.

Oct. 10, 2004 Carolina 17-13 20-17 win

Sept. 19, 2004 Jacksonville 7-6 7-6 loss again, jake had us in position to win. But Q-Tip couldn't hold onto the ball.

he had us in position to win 4 of those games, and if that happened, then he would have won 25% of his games when trailing entering the fourth quarter. thats not bad at all.

[Northman]

Well, lets hope we score first cause if the Ravens score a FG we are DOOOOOOMED. lmao

[dbroncos31]

Well, lets hope we score first cause if the Ravens score a FG we are DOOOOOOMED. lmao
no we won't be. we'll just put in cutler and he'll lead us to a 55-3 win!!!11

[Northman]

no we won't be. we'll just put in cutler and he'll lead us to a 55-3 win!!!11




AWESOME! Ha!

[Hulamau]

Marshall and Scheff couldn't pick a better night to both break out in the NFL. Lets hope they grab the bull by the horns.

Rabvens wil lbe focused on stopping Javon, Rod and Tatum and making Jake as uncomforatble as possible so a lot of qucik slants and outs to those guys could unglue the Ratbiurds gameplan early. Force them to keep their safeties honest and open up sthigns more for Walker.

The wet field could be our biggest enemy though. Or, on the other hand if we use it right with high percentage passes and plenty of double pump fakes, the wet field could become our biggest ally leaving McCalister and Reed sprawling on the ground and screwing up the Raven's overly aggressive rush.

At best they are both going to draw a safety, nickle or LB and each should be able to beat either (just stay away from Reed)!

[Bronco_Beerslug]

But when the Broncos are behind, Plummer is the league's least-efficient quarterback. No. 32

Damn, bad news for O4L's love fest with Plummer!

[BigPlayShay]

I was there. It only started raining late and Jake was throwing ducks. Fortunately the one to Devoe was so bad it got the defender out of position and he ran past him to the house. Did you see the Skins game last year?


Yep, I was at both the Philly and the Skins game, as well as tonight. Guess what, Jake won all 3 of those games over the likes of Mcnabb, Brunell, and McNair.

Winning matters, not opinions.