Ernster or Sauerbrun?

[wabbit]

I'm not normally one to start threads, however, it seems to me that the Broncos face a dilemma of sorts heading into week 5.

Should the Broncos cut ties with Todd Sauerbrun as he finishes his four game suspension, or release a promising Paul Ernster??

I only ask because Ernster has punted almost as well as Todd & has actually been a better KO man.

Sauerbrun was 11th over-all in punting stats in 2005 with a 43.8 ave gross & 38.0 net.

Through three games this season, Ernster is 16th over-all, but with a 44.6 gross & 36.2 yard net...a # that could be attributed (to some degree) to mediocre special teams play.

In addition, he's cheaper, younger, and as far as I know, has no penchant for supplements or illegal substances.

I, for one, think Ernster could be the better prospect in the long term.

Anyone else??

[GreatBronco16]

I think it will depend on how well Ernster does against the Ravens. Hell, Shanny might just keep both of them for some stupid reason.

Me, I say keep Ernster and get rid of Sauerbrun.

[Bronco LB 59]

Cut Sauerbrun so he can go get **** faced and hit on ugly women in another city.

[2KBack]

I'm still on the fence with this one. Sour Brawn is still the better punter as of now, but is more expensive and has the suspension risk hanging over his head. On the other hand Ernster is much better at kickoffs, and has potential as a place kicker. Can you imagine having one guy Punt, place kick, and kickoff? With Ernster there is that roster saving potential in the near future.

[Breck Bronc]

I'm still on the fence with this one. Sour Brawn is still the better punter as of now, but is more expensive and has the suspension risk hanging over his head. On the other hand Ernster is much better at kickoffs, and has potential as a place kicker. Can you imagine having one guy Punt, place kick, and kickoff? With Ernster there is that roster saving potential in the near future.Atlanta did and Michael Koenan laid a huge egg.

[Clockwork Orange]

Cut Sauerbrun so he can go get **** faced and hit on ugly women in another city.

No kidding. There's only room in this town for one Denny Neagle.

[2KBack]

Atlanta did and Michael Koenan laid a huge egg.

That has nothing to do with Ernster though, it's not a strategy thing, it's an athlete thing. IF Ernster sucked at it, I would hope they wouldn't try.

[-Slap-]

Atlanta did and Michael Koenan laid a huge egg.

The last time somebody tried it for a whole year was the Rams with Frank Corral (who sucked at both) about 25 years ago.

There's probably some talented specialist out there who could handle both duties, but I think a team runs a significant risk by putting all of their eggs in one basket like that. If your double duty K/P goes down in the first quarter on a kickoff return, you're double screwed.

The Last Days of Frank Corral (http://community.foxsports.com/blogs/footballoutsiders/2006/09/20/The_Last_Days_of_Frank_Corral)

Sep 20, 2006 | 7:18PM |

With the signing of Morten Andersen, the Michael Koenen experiment in Atlanta is now over. Koenen will punt, kick off, and handle any 50-yard field goal attempts. Andersen will take care of the short stuff. And Frank Corral remains the last player to serve as both a punter and a kicker for a full season.

Corral kicked and punted for the Rams in 1980 and 1981 after kicking for the team in his first two seasons. He finished seventh in the NFL in punting average and converted 17-of-26 field goal attempts 1981. But one awful game took away his job security. Corral missed three field goals and had a fourth kick blocked in a 20-17 loss to the Niners. The Rams entered that game 4-3. They would finish the season 6-10.

The next off-season, the Rams brought in youngsters John Misko and Mike Lansford to punt and kick, respectively. The Rams had signed young "camp kickers" in the past; Corral would rest his leg during training camp and coast through preseason games. But in 1982, the Rams started tracking the progress of their three kickers carefully. Corral didn't ramp up his effort in response to the new competition. "I wasn't going blow-to-blow with those guys," he told The Sporting News. "They were kicking the thunder out of it. If I tried to do that, I could have blown my leg and ruined my career. Besides, I've never been a pretty practice kicker." Misko said that he easily outpaced Corral on punts. "Let's face it, he's not Ray Guy," Misko said.

The Rams didn't mince words when they released Corral in favor of Misko and Lansford before the 1982 season. "Frank never came down to practice once during the off-season," Rams coach Ray Malavasi said. "Then when he comes to training camp he simply goes through the motions. Maybe he'll learn from this."

Corral (who was born in Chihuahua, Mexico) fired back at his former coach. "Ray can say that I'm a dumb, dirty, bean-eating Mexican, but don't fool the public and tell them I can't kick anymore," he said in The Sporting News. But Corral, whose $125,000 was high for a kicker of the era, would never kick or punt in the NFL again. Misko punted for three years in Los Angeles but wasn't very good. Lansford kicked for the Rams throughout the 1980s. Their 1982 salaries combined were less than Corral's. Ironically, the Rams ditched their kicker-punter for the same reason the Falcons created theirs: to save money.


(For more on Koenen and other two-way kicker-punters, read this week's Too Deep Zone, running Friday on FoxSports.com and Football Outsiders.)

Post by Mike Tanier

[Florida_Bronco]

Sauerbrun.

[elsid13]

The question is if we keep both, who the roster spot that cut. Nate Jackson ???

[Tombstone RJ]

I'm not normally one to start threads, however, it seems to me that the Broncos face a dilemma of sorts heading into week 5.

Should the Broncos cut ties with Todd Sauerbrun as he finishes his four game suspension, or release a promising Paul Ernster??

I only ask because Ernster has punted almost as well as Todd & has actually been a better KO man.

Sauerbrun was 11th over-all in punting stats in 2005 with a 43.8 ave gross & 38.0 net.

Through three games this season, Ernster is 16th over-all, but with a 44.6 gross & 36.2 yard net...a # that could be attributed (to some degree) to mediocre special teams play.

In addition, he's cheaper, younger, and as far as I know, has no penchant for supplements or illegal substances.

I, for one, think Ernster could be the better prospect in the long term.

Anyone else??

Keep Todd. The Broncos STs still need help, that includes punting and field position.

[UKBronco]

How many forced fumbles does Ernster have?

That's what i thought! The special teams coverage improves with Todd on the field ;) :thumbs:

[-Slap-]

I really hope we keep Ernster. Sauerbrun is a trouble magnet.

[BroncosMT]

I think Shanny will keep all three for the rest of this year. Then I hate to say it but I think Elam will be gone next year due to his struggles. Ernster will kickoff and do Field goals and Sauerbrun will continue to punt. My thoughts!

[Hogan11]

In addition, he's cheaper, younger, and as far as I know, has no penchant for supplements or illegal substances.

This, coupled with his performance thus far = Sold.

[BroncoFiend]

I'm not normally one to start threads, however, it seems to me that the Broncos face a dilemma of sorts heading into week 5.

Should the Broncos cut ties with Todd Sauerbrun as he finishes his four game suspension, or release a promising Paul Ernster??

I only ask because Ernster has punted almost as well as Todd & has actually been a better KO man.

Sauerbrun was 11th over-all in punting stats in 2005 with a 43.8 ave gross & 38.0 net.

Through three games this season, Ernster is 16th over-all, but with a 44.6 gross & 36.2 yard net...a # that could be attributed (to some degree) to mediocre special teams play.

In addition, he's cheaper, younger, and as far as I know, has no penchant for supplements or illegal substances.

I, for one, think Ernster could be the better prospect in the long term.

Anyone else??

I would think that we might be able to get a late round pick for Sauerbrun. There are plenty of teams in need of a good punter and for all of his faults he is good at what he does. At the very least, trading him for a 7th would allow us to dictate where he goes.

[BroncoBuff]

Paul Ernster has really earned that spot .... his numbers are excellent, and he's shown himslef to be adept at "backspin" inside the 5-yard line. After years and years of "Touchback Tom" Rouen, I find that extremely refreshing.

BTW - speaking of punters and Touchback Tom - anybody notice that Nick Harris has quietly become just about the best punter around? His touchback to 'inside-the-20" ratio was 34-2 last year for the Lions ....



34 to 2 !

[watermock]

I think Shanny will keep all three for the rest of this year. Then I hate to say it but I think Elam will be gone next year due to his struggles. Ernster will kickoff and do Field goals and Sauerbrun will continue to punt. My thoughts!

Wrong. Ernster will be kept because he's not on misstep away from a year long suspention.

I don't get the Elam hating. He's kicked 5-6, perfect on extra points...there is zero reason to cut him. If his leg can't get it past the 50, Ernster might be able to. It would be idiotic not to keep Ernster. He has been outstanding and is young.

[broncogary]

Paul Ernster has really earned that spot .... his numbers are excellent, and he's shown himslef to be adept at "backspin" inside the 5-yard line. After years and years of "Touchback Tom" Rouen, I find that extremely refreshing.

BTW - speaking of punters and Touchback Tom - anybody notice that Nick Harris has quietly become just about the best punter around? His touchback to 'inside-the-20" ratio was 34-2 last year for the Lions ....



34 to 2 !

How is that good?

[plummershelper]

Trade one of them in a package for a DT or DE

[Play2win]

Sauerbrun. He can flip the field with a single kick. He can impact the game. If we had him in New England, I bet he would have flipped the field early on, and we wouldn't have had our backs to the goalline so many times. It didn't really matter in that game, we were still able to pull off the win, but it will matter sometime this season. Todd can impact an entire game, and we need him on our roster.

[fatcard]

hang time is more important that distance... it seems ernster has a lot longer returns on his punts that sour brown as i recall.

[ludo21]

Great Thread Wabbit!!

You know my answer!! START ERNSTER!!! Drop Sour boy!

Altho if they can keep Paul on the roster till next year somehow, i wouldnt be against letting Todd punt either, he is really good.

[ScottXray]

When is the trade deadline...?

I think we will trade Sourbuns, and keep Ernster. If we can't trade Saeurbrun this year we keep both and get some draft choice for buns after the season.

Although Buns can punt and tackle, Ernster has done a good job. He doesn't get quite as much hang..but pretty good , and he has been doing well with inside the 20 kicks. Our special teams coverage has sucked big time....not Ernsters fault.

Ernster has much higher upside than buns...ergo keep Ernster and get rid of buns if there has to be a choice made.:strong:

[Broncobiv]

Ernster baby!!

Ludo, that's our baby boy, Denver's gotta keep him!

He's played pretty dang well so far this year. I don't see how he would have any trade value, since he basically has just 3 NFL games to his resume. Trade Sauerbrun since we can actually get something for him. Keep Ernster for the next 15 years!

[watermock]

Yeah right...your going to trade a million dollar punter for a top notch DT. We would be lucky to get generic cigs and a 6 pack of Milwalkee's Best. Maybe Snyder needs a punter Ha!

[Moon§hiner]

When the season started I was just hoping we could get thru the suspension without having a major gaffe by Ernster.....up until today I had forgotton all about Saurerbrun...I'd have no problem if the Broncos decide to move on without him.

[TXBRONC]

If we kept Ernster over Sauerbrun I would be comfortable with that, but there is no way Shanahan keeps them both.

[cabronco]

Is there any way we can keep both on the roster the rest of the year, or would we have to cut loose someone else. It seems so far that Ernster has all the right stuff, I love the ability of punters to pin the defenders down next to their own goal line, which he's done rather well. The only thing I've noticed w/ Ernster on his punts ( that are fixable) is the time he takes getting his punts off. It seems to take him a half second or a step longer to get the punt off. I havent studied punters, but I noticed last game, Ernster took a step backwards on a good snap from center, then stepped forward. As Sauerbrun takes one step then booms it out of there.

[Play2win]

Is there any way we can keep both on the roster the rest of the year, or would we have to cut loose someone else. It seems so far that Ernster has all the right stuff, I love the ability of punters to pin the defenders down next to their own goal line, which he's done rather well. The only thing I've noticed w/ Ernster on his punts ( that are fixable) is the time he takes getting his punts off. It seems to take him a half second or a step longer to get the punt off. I havent studied punters, but I noticed last game, Ernster took a step backwards on a good snap from center, then stepped forward. As Sauerbrun takes one step then booms it out of there.

Sauerbrun is a sledgehammer back there.

[Popps]

Good stuff, Wabbit... and I think you're right, it's gotta be Ernster. There's just too much upside there. He's continued to impress and doesn't come with the bull**** that seems to come with Sauerbrun. (How does a flippin' punter come with off-field problems!?!?)

I mean, it's definitely a win/win as far as who we'll use this year... but I think it's gotta be Ernster for the future.

[Atwater His Ass]

Sauerbrun is the better punter, but it's not like Ernster has been stinking it up back there etiher. With Ernster's solid play, his young age, and the BIG fact that he's not just a setp away from a year long suspension...I don't see how we cut Ernster.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

I think Shanny will keep all three for the rest of this year. Then I hate to say it but I think Elam will be gone next year due to his struggles. Ernster will kickoff and do Field goals and Sauerbrun will continue to punt. My thoughts!

Elam struggles ???? I sure don't get that. He is still one of the top FG kickers in the NFL and he is 11 years younger than Morton Anderson. While he is obviously the backup FG kicker, no one has ever said that Ernster had any ability to be an NFL place kicker.

Five or six teams are in need of a punter. Trade Sourbutt for a late round pick and keep the kid.

[Requiem]

Ernster long-term without question, he comes at over a million dollars cheaper too.

[Needa Pass Rush]

Ernster.

[Ballhawk]

Ya I like Ernster. Would be nice to have a Kicker that won't get suspended and I can see him punting for us for the next 12 years.

[Paladin]

In the Post, Burger Bill said that Minnesota, Texans and one other team were interested in Sourbuns. That may be a third or a second right there. If tehy trade for a player, the Broncos would have to let someone else go. Right now, I would prefer that Devoe be moved on, and bring on Hixon and trade Sourbuns for a high pick. Auction anyone?

[Atlas]

Here is a pretty good article on Enster.

Ernster keeps attention on job, not Sauerbrun’s return

SoCals link: http://www.thedenverdailynews.com/?page=details&id=4633&t=Archive

By ASSOCIATED PRESS - October 2, 2006
DENVER (AP) — On a camping trip over the bye weekend, Denver Broncos punter Paul Ernster squeezed in some fishing and horseshoes with friends.

He had one strict, unbreakable rule on the trip — no football talk.

With Todd Sauerbrun set to come back from his four-game suspension after Monday night’s game against Baltimore, Ernster has been asked countless times about what he thinks his role will be.

That’s why it was good to escape into the wilderness of southwest Colorado with friends.

“They knew I’d had enough of that question,” Ernster said.

But the question has resurfaced again: Has he d

one enough to keep the punting job once Sauerbrun returns?

“I don’t think about it,” he said Monday as the team reported back to practice. “I can’t think about the future and what’s going to happen.”

The Broncos learned of Sauerbrun’s suspension by the league for using the banned supplement ephedra just before training camp. Ernster has done a solid job in his place. He’s currently 18th in the NFL with a 44.6-yard average. Ernster had a career-best 61-yard punt against Kansas City and pinned New England inside its 20-yard line on four separate occasions.

“I’m hitting the ball pretty smoothly,” Ernster said. “I feel like things are going pretty well. Looking back, there’s always things you could’ve done better, but I’ve done everything I hoped I’d do.”

The imminent return of the three-time Pro Bowler doesn’t cause Ernster any added anxiety. He takes everything in stride, which has impressed Denver special teams coach Ronnie Bradford.

“He’s handled the Todd thing real well,” Bradford said. “He doesn’t let a lot of things faze him. He’s going to work out fine for us.”

Once Sauerbrun returns, the Broncos have a decision to make — keep three kickers on the roster or cut one loose. There are plenty of teams around the league who employ a punter, place kicker and kickoff specialist. Should Denver choose to bring back Sauerbrun as the punter, Ernster could fill the kickoff specialist role.

He’s had three touchbacks this season and the average starting point for the opposition after kickoffs is the 25-yard line. That ranks seventh in the AFC.

Naturally, being the special teams coach, Bradford would like to see all three kept around.

“We talked about that in the beginning of the year, carrying three kickers,” Bradford said. “It wouldn’t be far-fetched for us to consider it. We have to cross that path when we get to it.”

That’s Ernster’s approach as well. He’s not thinking about what lies ahead, only doing his job.

“I’m here to punt like I’m going to be here the whole season,” Ernster said. “I’m not saying I’m going to be, but I’m here to punt like I am.”

Ernster hasn’t talked to Sauerbrun since the suspension officially began the week before the season opener against St. Louis. Sauerbrun can’t report back to the facility until next Tuesday.

“He’s out doing his thing right now,” Ernster said. “I’m sure he’s looking forward to getting the chance to get back on the field.”

Ernster’s known as a placement kicker while Sauerbrun possesses the powerful leg. Sauerbrun averaged 43.8 yards a punt in 2005 and had a long of 66 yards. His career-best is 73 yards in 2001 as a member of Carolina.

“Todd’s going to go out there and unleash bombs,” Bradford said. “Todd has a lot of things in his repertoire. He’s been across the waters and has the experience.”

But Ernster has the job, at least for the time being. He knows that Monday could be his final chance to show he deserves to keep the spot.

“There’s no guarantees in this league,” Ernster said. “If I start punting bad, I’m gone anyway. Every day is an audition.”

[WABronco]

In addition, he's cheaper, younger, and as far as I know, has no penchant for supplements or illegal substances.

I, for one, think Ernster could be the better prospect in the long term.

Anyone else??

Agreed.

He's more than 1 mil cheaper. He's not on his last strike in the league drug program. He's a triple-threat type player, and his kickoffs are better. We cut him now, we lose him.

[WABronco]

In the Post, Burger Bill said that Minnesota, Texans and one other team were interested in Sourbuns. That may be a third or a second right there. If tehy trade for a player, the Broncos would have to let someone else go. Right now, I would prefer that Devoe be moved on, and bring on Hixon and trade Sourbuns for a high pick. Auction anyone?

I'd trade Sauerbrun for a second day pick...in a heartbeat.

[watermock]

Sourbuns has triple the contract, is quite "advanced" for a punter and is one goof up away from a year long suspension. Keeping a FG kicker to 40 is completely different than a punter. Did I mention Ernster kicks off and can also use his young leg for long FG attempts?

There is no reason to boot Elam thru the uprights till his contract expires. I could see him kicking into his early 40's.

Minnesota certainly could use a punter. Trust me, I have to suffer thru their games every week. Yeah, Saurbaut cause a game changing fumble, but Ernster isn't exactly Ms. Lilly. He can be coached to give his kicks more hang time...no reason to outkick your coverage. I'll take a 5 and Dime (yes, I remember them, Woolworths) punter that is young every time.

[BroncoBuff]

How is that good?

I don't understand your question. Nick Harris's 2005 totals:

34 punts inside the 20 .... and just
2 touchbacks ??

You ask 'how is that good?' It seems self-evident to me. Unless you hate the Lions. But honestly, how could anybody possibly summon the energy to actually "hate" the Lions? Uhh


What would be the point? :~ohyah!:


.

[BroncoBuff]

I'm surprised at the reasons given by pro-Ernster voters in this thread. "He's younger," "He's cheaper," "He's not on banned supplemenmts." That's all true, and Ernster will be the guy at some point. But this is football - and we have a chance to go all the way this year. Remember, Sauerbrun can "flip the field," as Shanny puts it, and he's did it several times last year. I'm not sure why Todd's punter rankings aren't higher, wabbit? I thought he was right at the top last year.... But the Ernster rankings - "18th in the NFL," and "7th in the AFC." Those are very much "middle-of-the-pack" rankings...

I'm not sure which side of this argument I'm on, but I definitely don't care much who's "younger," and the "cheaper" consideration seems like a training camp salary camp situation - not something that matters much 4 games in.

PART OF THE PROBLEM HERE: The NFL's punter statistics are positively stone-age. They should update the way they rank punters. Not as complicated an update as QB Efficiency rating, but rather something that I've long advocated:
For every punt that ends up "inside the 20" - the 'Punter Net Avg.' should include ALL 20 YARDS past the 20, PLUS one extra yard for every yard inside the 20. This would make the NET average reflect both hangtime AND accuracy. The Punter's GROSS average would remain the same, and skew toward pure distance. Over time, the ratio bewteen these two averages could possibly be developed into a third punter stat ... "Net/Gross Ratio" or something.

EXAMPLES: (For these examples, the line of scrimmage is the opponent's 40.)

The punt is fair-caught or goes outta bounds or is downed at the 15 yard line: 40 yards (to the end zone) plus 5 yards past the 20 (to the 15) equals a net punt of 45. Right now that punt would get a 25 yard net.

The punt is fair-caught or goes outta bounds or is downed at the 2 yard line: 40 yards (to the end zone) plus 18 past the 20 (to the 2) equals a net punt of 58 yards - instead of the 38 it would get now.

[fontaine]

If we cut Ernster, then he gets picked up IMMEDIATELY because he can kickoff, punt, is cheap, and very young. Once he's cut from Denver, forget about it, we won't ever see him again in a Broncos jersey.

Saurbruin does have a hyper, ephedra boosted leg but his next suspension is going to be a year long, he costs a million and he's what 32?

If we have to, then maybe keep all three for a couple of weeks until we can work out a trade for Saurbruin for a conditional 7th or something but I suspect if they had any takers it would have been a done deal by now.

[watermock]

They make Ernster learn how to bang the long one on FG's, we can keep Elam for another half decade.

I'm not sure you can trade a player under suspension. I wouldn't put Saurbun back there after he's been kickin' back buds for over a month.

[broncogary]

I don't understand your question. Nick Harris's 2005 totals:

34 punts inside the 20 .... and just
2 touchbacks ??

You ask 'how is that good?' It seems self-evident to me. Unless you hate the Lions. But honestly, how could anybody possibly summon the energy or incentive to actually "hate" the Lions?

Ah, I get it now. When you said "touchback to inside the 20", I interpreted that to be 34 touchbacks to 2 punts downed inside the 20.

That would be only 2 better than Tom Rouen. :thumbsup:

[BroncoInferno]

I don't think Ernster gets cut either way...even if they keep Sauerbraun I think they'll hold on to Paul as the KO specialist and then reevaluate the punting situation in the offseason.

[dbfan21]

I really hope we keep Ernster. Sauerbrun is a trouble magnet.

Totally agree. Although Sauerbrun was helpful last year, he can't stay out of trouble. I am sure many teams with mediocre punters/KO specialists would snatch Ernster up in a second based on his performance this year.

Go with the cheaper, less risky guy.

[defenseman]

I'd go with Ernster at this point. Ernster has made shanahan's decision a little tougher, thats for sure..dman

[broncsyanks]

saurbraten has the stronger leg i'll take him. his crime was e[hedera for fat gain, not roids or drunken driving or narcotics.

he has the job.

[Man-Goblin]

I talked about this 3 months ago in this Lelie and Sauerbrun thread (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/showthread.php?t=43820&highlight=sauerbrun+hardball) and got reemed for saying it at the time. But nothing's changed in three months. Ernster kicked well, so kick Todd to the curb.

[Dedhed]

Get whatever we can in trade for Todd, and call it a day. I think Ernster has the ability to "flip the field" as well. Perhaps a half notch below Supplement Boy in hang time, but he's got plenty of leg, and still has room to improve on his techique. Sauer has peaked, and may have some value in trade; we should take it.

[plummershelper]

Yeah right...your going to trade a million dollar punter for a top notch DT. We would be lucky to get generic cigs and a 6 pack of Milwalkee's Best. Maybe Snyder needs a punter Ha!

"Trade one of them in a package for a DT or DE"


You're right Mock, I did say just a punter for a top notch DT. You got me there, thanks for helping me out there. ROFL! I'm just saying there are some teams out there that coulde use punter that we have no room for. Rather than just dropping him, trade him in a package for someone we could use.

[watermock]

I think it would be easier to simply get a second day pick. Remember, he was acting out in Carolina and had been released. Ernster can be taught to put more hang time in...I think he has been kicking for distance to impress the coaches. Once Todd is gone he won't have to worry about his punting average.

Can't he also kick field goals? Maybe I'm mistaken, but if he can hook up the 50+yarders, that's a keeper. Let him keep practicing at his skills..he's a youngster.

[heydensmom]

Let Sauer play, eval his play coming off the suspension against Ernie, then make a decision. :thumbsup: If his stats are weaker..poof be gone...if not see yeah Ernie, don't let that door hit yeah on the way out. :rofl:

[Rohirrim]

Keep Paul now. Boot Sourbeer. Draft Mason Crosby in April. ;D

[TallyBronco]

EXAMPLES: (For these examples, the line of scrimmage is the opponent's 40.)

The punt is fair-caught or goes outta bounds or is downed at the 15 yard line: 40 yards (to the end zone) plus 5 yards past the 20 (to the 15) equals a net punt of 45. Right now that punt would get a 25 yard net.

The punt is fair-caught or goes outta bounds or is downed at the 2 yard line: 40 yards (to the end zone) plus 18 past the 20 (to the 2) equals a net punt of 58 yards - instead of the 38 it would get now.

For a league that publishes stats widely and uses them profusely in broadcasts, the level of sophistication employed in these stats amounts to about a 1-year-old's grasp of language. Likewise for the use of stats by most of the posters on this board.

Over a large enough sample size, gross average will roughly reflect a punter's power. But only roughly. And we can all judge roughly how good a punter's leg is just by watching games. What we want are stats that fine-tune that judgment.

But your system would confound two different situations: punting inside the 20, and punting deep in your own territory. In both cases you could register a 60-yard punt: punting to the opponent's goaline from the 40 and punting from your own 10 to the opponent's 30. So punter with little power but good accuracy might look on paper like the punter with the most power.

Your system also has the effect of measurement a punt from the opponents 40 to the opponents 19-yard-line as a 41-yard punt, but a punt from the same spot to the 21-yard-line as a 19-yard punt. So a punter who's only 2-yards more effective earns 21-more yards in your system just because his punt landed inside the 20.

What's need is a system that accounts for the amount of yardage taken from an opponent compared to the total potential yardage taken. So a punt from the opponent's 40 to the opponent's 1 would have a 98% ratio, versus a 50% ratio for a touchback. At the same time a punt from your own 40 that goes to the opponent's 10 would have an 83% ratio. The problem, of course, is that punter's have a ceiling on their abilities relative to the length of the field of play. So a 60-yard punt from your own 5-yard-line is great, but in this case the ratio would be only 63%.

This can be solved by setting an upper limit on the ratio, say, at 50 yards. In that case, you have to violate the logic of the model somewhat, because you'll have some ratios above 100%.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Welcome Tally! Are you a Stats professor? :)

[Broncobuddy7]

I say keep Ernster because my sister grooms his dog and he's been nice enough to get my authentic Bailey jersey signed.

[Man-Goblin]

I say keep Ernster because my sister grooms his dog and he's been nice enough to get my authentic Bailey jersey signed.

What kind of dog does Paul Ernster have?

[plummershelper]

I think it would be easier to simply get a second day pick. Remember, he was acting out in Carolina and had been released. Ernster can be taught to put more hang time in...I think he has been kicking for distance to impress the coaches. Once Todd is gone he won't have to worry about his punting average.

Can't he also kick field goals? Maybe I'm mistaken, but if he can hook up the 50+yarders, that's a keeper. Let him keep practicing at his skills..he's a youngster.

We traded a punter and a 7th for Sauerbuns. But, you're right Mock (that gave me shivers), we can teach Ernster and get a pick for Todd, or vice versa.

[bilrob]

It will be a tough decission for Shanny. I hope that he will keep both for at least two or three games. Releasing someone that isn't really needed right now on the squad and informing him to hang tight for a couple of weeks so Shanny can have a better look at the kickers. Then making the right choice. Its would be hard, IMO, to let Ernster go considering his youth, cost and future. And as some have mentioned, there is a good need from other teams for a K/P, so an outright release would be improbable, more like a trade of some sort. Maybe a draft choice, then bring back the player who was released to make room for both on the squad for a couple of weeks.

[kamakazi_kal]

ill take steroidbrun

[BroncoBuff]

What kind of dog does Paul Ernster have?

I'll venture a guess ... he's from Arizona, so not too long of hair. Yet he has the dog goomed, so it's not bald or anything ...

I''ll say ... BEAGLE.

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/7584/snoopyxq2.gif (http://imageshack.us)

[Man-Goblin]

I'll venture a guess ... he's from Arizona, so not too long of hair. Yet he has the dog goomed, so it's not bald or anything ...

I''ll say ... BEAGLE.

http://img443.imageshack.us/img443/7584/snoopyxq2.gif (http://imageshack.us)

Okay, what kind of dog does Sauerbraun have?

[BroncoBuff]

Okay, what kind of dog does Sauerbraun have?

Prolly a mutt ... one that's "comfortable" with Todd's borderline illegal behavior ...

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/1618/180pxmuttley2ep2.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

[ludo21]

Ernster makes the team, he has gotta, right?

At least im hoping.

[BroncoBuff]

For a league that publishes stats widely and uses them profusely in broadcasts, the level of sophistication employed in these stats amounts to about a 1-year-old's grasp of language. Likewise for the use of stats by most of the posters on this board.

Your system also has the effect of measurement a punt from the opponents 40 to the opponents 19-yard-line as a 41-yard punt, but a punt from the same spot to the 21-yard-line as a 19-yard punt. So a punter who's only 2-yards more effective earns 21-more yards in your system just because his punt landed inside the 20.

What's need is a system that accounts for the amount of yardage taken from an opponent compared to the total potential yardage taken. So a punt from the opponent's 40 to the opponent's 1 would have a 98% ratio, versus a 50% ratio for a touchback. At the same time a punt from your own 40 that goes to the opponent's 10 would have an 83% ratio. The problem, of course, is that punter's have a ceiling on their abilities relative to the length of the field of play. So a 60-yard punt from your own 5-yard-line is great, but in this case the ratio would be only 63%.

This can be solved by setting an upper limit on the ratio, say, at 50 yards. In that case, you have to violate the logic of the model somewhat, because you'll have some ratios above 100%.

Some very good points, smart new guy. I like the ratio for "FTA" ... "Field Taken Away," (bold)if I may be so bold as to label your idea ...

But you missed the fact I keep the GROSS AVG. intact ... so that's not the problem you make it out to be. I even said that the ratio between a pnter's 'gross avg' and 'net avg' could develop into a new stat.

As far as a punt to the 21 getting 22 yards less credit that one to the 19 ... THAT'S A COMPLIMENT! Because my stat idea is intended to place a greater PREMIUM on putting one inside the 20 - and you've siezed on the greatest edge where that premium is at its most severe. Maybe that could be fixed by giving a touchback 10 of the 20 final yards (instead of deducting all 20). I know that sounds like a really complicated wrench in the process, but when the whole thing comes together, it's not so complicated. BTW - I'd keep the "Inside the 20" stat. - in addition as I said Gross avg and net avg.

The NFL is so short-sighted sometimes in its effort to help the offenses. I believe - and I don't think I'm alone here - watching offenses being pinned back and punting outta their end zone quite entertaining actually.

We so agree on the stone-age stats the NFL foists up. And when they DID try to "modernize," they went way too far with the needlessly complicated QB Efficiency rating ....



Actually, I have all kinds of stats ideas - some are pretty quirky. EXAMPLE: I think QB stats should be displayed like W-L-T records. Say,
Jake Plummer 15-10-2 with 1 TDThat would be 15 wins (completions), 10 losses (incompletions, ie - nobody caught them) and 2 INTs ... for a total of 27 balls thrown. The way its done now puts too much focus on the TOTAL # of passes, which is not so important really. And the current stat display duplicates INTs with attempts/incompletions, if you follow.



MORE examples:
CURRENT WAY: Jake Plummer 16/29 with 1 int 2 td
MY NEW WAY: Jake Plummer 16-12-1 with 2 TDs


I like mine better! :thanku:

[BroncsRule]

Keep 'em both. Who do we have to cut? 5th string receiver that doesn't dress anyway.

We're on a suberbowl quest here - Hang time does matter. Todd's got the big gun - a difference of 3-4 yards and an extra second and a half of hang time is huge. "flip the field" indeed.

Paulie's an excellent future prospect that we don't want to let slip away.

Lots of teams carry 3 kickers.

[Inkana7]

Micah Knorr.

[Man-Goblin]

Prolly a mutt ... one that's "comfortable" with Todd's borderline illegal behavior ...

http://img269.imageshack.us/img269/1618/180pxmuttley2ep2.jpg (http://imageshack.us)

I'll have to go with the legal beagle then. Ernster stays. Once again, I wish Todd well and I hope the door doesn't hit his fat ass on the way out.

[Killericon]

Try to trade Sauerbraun, and if we can't sluff him off, then cut Ernster.

[Florida_Bronco]

Can't we stash Ernster back on the practice squad?

[SouthStndJunkie]

If Ernster has a solid game on Monday, then I think he keeps the job.

[ludo21]

Can't we stash Ernster back on the practice squad?


no he has been active too long i think.

I agree that if we dont cut or trade Sour boy, we should definitely keep Ernster for at least this season, then let the competition heat up again.

[Cleo McDowell]

lets keep the badass gamechanging kicker that kills the ball from our own end.

[anthonypacino]

I'm not normally one to start threads, however, it seems to me that the Broncos face a dilemma of sorts heading into week 5.

Should the Broncos cut ties with Todd Sauerbrun as he finishes his four game suspension, or release a promising Paul Ernster??

I only ask because Ernster has punted almost as well as Todd & has actually been a better KO man.

Sauerbrun was 11th over-all in punting stats in 2005 with a 43.8 ave gross & 38.0 net.

Through three games this season, Ernster is 16th over-all, but with a 44.6 gross & 36.2 yard net...a # that could be attributed (to some degree) to mediocre special teams play.

In addition, he's cheaper, younger, and as far as I know, has no penchant for supplements or illegal substances.

I, for one, think Ernster could be the better prospect in the long term.

Anyone else??
I totally agree, I think Ernster is kicking just as well as SauerBUM and kicks off much better. His avg is down because of the ST play which must start to step it up. Ernster is younger, cheaper, much better attitude and isn't a risk to be banned from the league, we run the chance of SauerBUM screwing up again Ernster being picked up by someone else and then we would have to welcome back Micah Knorr. KEEP ERNSTER!

[broncogary]

What you don't understand is that Ernster could very possibly come out of this game with a sprained pinky toe, which would require placing him on IR.

I think he'll be able to tough it out and finish the game though.

[BroncoInferno]

Keeping Ernster and outright dumping Sauerbrun is risky. Ernster has three games of NFL punting under his belt. He's looked pretty solid, but whether or not he will be consistent is unknown at this point. Todd has a ten year track record of top level kicking, so we know what he can do. I'm leaning towards keeping both with Todd punting and Ernster kicking off. Then revisit the situation in the offseason.

[Man-Goblin]

No way in hell you can sneak Ernster onto the practice squad. I really think you gotta keep him; he was nails tonight. Good, young punter with no failed drug tests.

[SoCalBronco]

Keep them both and dump Adams.

[rovolution]

Keep them both and dump Adams.

Charlie Adams? isnt he gone already? I say axe Devoe and then possibly axe Nate Jackson after Dominique Hixon is ready

[Dukes]

Charlie Adams? isnt he gone already? I say axe Devoe and then possibly axe Nate Jackson after Dominique Hixon is ready

Still to this day i'm suprised Nate Jackson is on the roster. Either him or Adams can go. I'd rather have both kickers.

[Kaylore]

50 yard punt out of bounds pinned inside the 20. Smells like Ernster.

[FireFly]

What you don't understand is that Ernster could very possibly come out of this game with a sprained pinky toe, which would require placing him on IR.

I think he'll be able to tough it out and finish the game though.

Yeah, I have a feeling something's going to happen like that. We won't just let either of them go.

[Broncobuddy7]

What kind of dog does Paul Ernster have?

A mutt named Ace. It's a Lab/Shepherd mix. My sister said that he has her shave it and it makes the dog look really stupid.

[Dedhed]

Trade Dopester.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Bet Baltimore would give up a draft choice for sourbutt this morning.

[broncolife]

Any chance we can bring Todd Sauerbrun back? Didnt Roids have a one year deal with the pats? I miss seeing those booming punts.

[atomicbloke]

Any chance we can bring Todd Sauerbrun back? Didnt Roids have a one year deal with the pats? I miss seeing those booming punts.

Are you crazy?

What about Shanny's ego?

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Any chance we can bring Todd Sauerbrun back? Didnt Roids have a one year deal with the pats? I miss seeing those booming punts.

No - He betrayed Shanahan.

[JCMElway]

No - He betrayed Shanahan.

How did he betray Shanahan?

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Shanhan told him when he signed that he had one chance and he blew it by getting suspended.

[ludo21]

Great Thread Wabbit!!

You know my answer!! START ERNSTER!!! Drop Sour boy!

Altho if they can keep Paul on the roster till next year somehow, i wouldnt be against letting Todd punt either, he is really good.



GREAT TAKE :)

Ernster should improve this year, he was very streaky last year..

[Play2win]

One day we will get a REAL Punter... Oh, wait a second, we DID have one...

[Play2win]

GREAT TAKE :)

Ernster should improve this year, he was very streaky last year..

If by streaky, you mean leaving streak marks (the stinky kind), yeah then I would have to agree...

[Man-Goblin]

I just read my quotes from earlier on this page, and DAMN was I wrong. They should have kept Sauerbraun.

[cutthemdown]

Ernster stinks. He's about as average a punter as we have ever had.

[Kaylore]

Ernster stinks. He's about as average a punter as we have ever had.

He's better than Knorr! :D :'(

[cutthemdown]

He's better than Knorr! :D :'(

Oh I haven't forgot old no more Knorr. As in no more field position.

[Florida_Bronco]

Ernster stinks. He's about as average a punter as we have ever had.

He's only been an NFL punter for 1 year. Give the kid a chance.

[Odysseus]

Interesting....Todd is back! Any change of opinion?

[Clockwork Orange]

Interesting....Todd is back! Any change of opinion?

I don't think it's official yet. The Pats still have a few days to make up their minds on whether or not to match, I believe.

[Odysseus]

I don't think it's official yet. The Pats still have a few days to make up their minds on whether or not to match, I believe.

I guess I should wait until someone posts a two or three brand new threads as if this thread didn't exist.

[Clockwork Orange]

I guess I should wait until someone posts a two or three brand new threads as if this thread didn't exist.

Not what I meant, but take it any way you will.

Anyway, I don't think the Pats will match, so I like it. Sauerbrun did a fine job while he was here, unfortunately he ran afoul of Shanahan and that generally tends to buy a player a ticket out of town.

I think he'll be on his best behavior granted a second chance. He never wanted to leave in the first place and now his old special teams coach from Carolina is here. That combined with the chance to kick at altitude at least eight times a year makes this an ideal spot for him. If he screws it up again, he's beyond hopeless.

[elsid13]

Got to love the fact that we have punter that wants to be lineman.

[Clockwork Orange]

Got to love the fact that we have punter that wants to be lineman.

http://www.nfl.com/u/photos/pl_226949.jpg

:~ohyah!:

[BroncoInferno]

It was a mistake to let Todd go in the first place. Shanny let his ego get the best of him in that instance. Hopefully, NE won't match so we can right the wrong.

[BMF Bronco]

Lovin that the juiced up kicker is back!!!!

[2KBack]

It was a mistake to let Todd go in the first place. Shanny let his ego get the best of him in that instance. Hopefully, NE won't match so we can right the wrong.

at the time it didn't seem like such a mistake. When Ernster was competing with Todd he was doing a really good job. Pretty much went punt for punt, and was a good kickoff guy. It seemed like it was going to be a minimal punt difference and save a roster spot. No one knew Ernster was going **** himself once he was the man.

[BroncoInferno]

at the time it didn't seem like such a mistake. When Ernster was competing with Todd he was doing a really good job. Pretty much went punt for punt, and was a good kickoff guy. It seemed like it was going to be a minimal punt difference and save a roster spot. No one knew Ernster was going **** himself once he was the man.

Ernster's first four games were pretty good, but you don't drop a top 3 punter for a guy with four good games under his belt. Shanny was playing Tony Soprano in this case, and it turned out to be a bad move. Hopefully, the Pats won't match so we can correct the mistake.

[SureShot]

It was a mistake to let Todd go in the first place. Shanny let his ego get the best of him in that instance. Hopefully, NE won't match so we can right the wrong.

You talk alot about Shanahan's ego, but I just don't see it in this case. Todd was coming off suspension, and a decision needed to be made. Cut someone to clear a roster space or keep the status quo with Ernster who was playing well and playing two positions at P and KOS.

[Atlas]

The thing that Saurbrun does best is when he is kicking from his end zone and he can just let it rip. I know few times he was kicking from the end zone and the other team would end up starting from their 40 yard line. That is just huge in terms of field position. With Enster punting more often than not the other team was starting on Denver's side of the field. Ernster was horrible last year worse than Rouen or Knorr ever was. He'll get better but with Saurbrun available Denver has to pick him up if they can. I'll bet if Denver keeps Saurbrun Ernster will not be with a team at mid season.

[BroncoInferno]

You talk alot about Shanahan's ego, but I just don't see it in this case. Todd was coming off suspension, and a decision needed to be made. Cut someone to clear a roster space or keep the status quo with Ernster who was playing well and playing two positions at P and KOS.

He was playing well, but do you cut a top 3 player at his position for a neophyte who has played well for 4 games? I think that was Shanny trying to show he won't put up with sh*t. That's all well and good except when it has an adverse effect on a full third of your team.

[SureShot]

He was playing well, but do you cut a top 3 player at his position for a neophyte who has played well for 4 games? I think that was Shanny trying to show he won't put up with sh*t. That's all well and good except when it has an adverse effect on a full third of your team.

I think Ernster did alot to make that decision for him.

WHo would you have cut to keep him?

[BMF Bronco]

I have ernsters autograph and am happy ol' roids is coming back!

[SureShot]

I am pumped to have him back I hope the Pats don't match.

[Odysseus]

Not what I meant, but take it any way you will.

Anyway, I don't think the Pats will match, so I like it. Sauerbrun did a fine job while he was here, unfortunately he ran afoul of Shanahan and that generally tends to buy a player a ticket out of town.

I think he'll be on his best behavior granted a second chance. He never wanted to leave in the first place and now his old special teams coach from Carolina is here. That combined with the chance to kick at altitude at least eight times a year makes this an ideal spot for him. If he screws it up again, he's beyond hopeless.

I could not agree with you more.

[TheChamp24]

At the time, I agreed with the decision to ax Saurbraun and keep Ernster. Ernster **** the fan though after that. Paul is young and can continue to get better, or just hit the crapper like Nick Harris.
I like bringing Saurbraun back, maybe he can teach Paul if we keep both.

[Rock Chalk]

I think Ernster did alot to make that decision for him.

WHo would you have cut to keep him?

Ernster.

Im with Inferno on this one. Ernster was kicking good, not great those first four games. Sourbraun kicks GREAT. Someone said the drop off wasnt significant at the time of Saurbrauns release, well, that depends on what your definition of significant is. 5 more yards can be a game clincher. Doesnt seem like much, but sometimes it just is. Starting at their own 40 or their own 35, which would you prefer? In a game of inches, take the extra 180 Saurbraun gave you and be happy.

After Todd was released, the difference was more like 10-20 yards per punt. He just f<span>u</span>cking tanked because he knew he wasnt fighting for anything which told me all I needed about his work ethic and character.

Id be happy releasing Ernster and never seeing him again.

[BigPlayShay]

Will Sauerbrun hold for PATs now?

[SureShot]

Ernster.

Im with Inferno on this one. Ernster was kicking good, not great those first four games. Sourbraun kicks GREAT. Someone said the drop off wasnt significant at the time of Saurbrauns release, well, that depends on what your definition of significant is. 5 more yards can be a game clincher. Doesnt seem like much, but sometimes it just is. Starting at their own 40 or their own 35, which would you prefer? In a game of inches, take the extra 180 Saurbraun gave you and be happy.

After Todd was released, the difference was more like 10-20 yards per punt. He just f<span>u</span>cking tanked because he knew he wasnt fighting for anything which told me all I needed about his work ethic and character.

Id be happy releasing Ernster and never seeing him again.

Who's kicking off?

[Rock Chalk]

Todd kicked off as well as Ernster did, better IIRC.

[ward63]

Who's kicking off?

Sourbuns, just like he did the year Ernster was on IR.

[SureShot]

Todd kicked off as well as Ernster did, better IIRC.

I will take your word for it. I can't remember ever seeing him kick off.

[TheChamp24]

Todd's kickoffs were horrible IMO because they were line drive kicks. And if he didn't get a hold of it, it would go to the 10 or so, and being a line drive kick, it was horrible.

[wabbit]

I'm glad the Broncos re-signed Sauerbrun.

Ernsters leg got worse & worse as the season progressed to the point where he was kicking off to the 10 against San Francisco, but that is to be expected among many collge kids used to ten-eleven game seasons.

IF the Broncos had the time to develop him, I've seen enough to convince me the kid could become a premier NFL punter and KO specialist.

Teams just don't have those luxuries today, so I expect Sauerbrun to easily win the job...barring a 2 am jail call during training camp or something similar.

[Man-Goblin]

At the time, I agreed with the decision to ax Saurbraun and keep Ernster. Ernster **** the fan though after that. Paul is young and can continue to get better, or just hit the crapper like Nick Harris.
I like bringing Saurbraun back, maybe he can teach Paul if we keep both.

I'm pretty much in this boat; and there's quotes in this thread to prove it. I was wrong and I really hope Sauerbrun comes back.