Draft Strategy Picking 5th in a 12 team league... Idea's?

[bpc]

2nd year in a row i'll be picking 5th in the 1st round, 8th in the second and rotating back and fourth. I got stuck with this same situation last year. I won't be able to draft the franchise backs, LT, LJ, or Alexander... and most prognosticators are saying its too early to pick my #1 QB. I usually would take Manning in this situation. The way I feel, he is easily the safest pick amongst the next five or six picks. The guy is always healthy, and he'll always throw at least 25 TD's.

However the challenge is the run that will take place on HB's. HB is deep this year in my oppinion. I hate being stuck with the option of Barber or Portis. I think Portis is going to injured running in Washington and Brunell will not help matters with his limp noodle arm this year. Al Saunders might help but I really feel like Washington's offense is going to fail this season. I don't know what is wrong with Tiki, I just keep thinking he is going to drop off each season.

Now i've learned enough to know that I usually overthink these things. I'm thinking I should draft Peyton and risk losing a butt load of HB's in the process... i'm leary about that. QB would locked up for the year though. I would just have to scramble and try to find some sleepers out of the HB's. I could do it I think.

Tiki should be good this year but he has had so much good luck over the past few years, I would be tempting fate a little. I don't want to draft him so reverse psychology says this is probably what I should do. (I'm out-thinking myself!)

I got stuck with the same pick last year and landed in the same situation I fear with Portis. I drafted Willis McGahee because of his potential though knowing that Losman was going to bomb and he busted. Then with the next few picks I landed Javon Walker (Agh!) and Terrell Owens (double AGH!). My 1st three picks ended up costing me the league.

I still rallied myself out well and made the playoffs but my team was severly hindered based on my 1st pick.

Option A, pick Manning and probably have the best production with my QB out of the league (anybody think that EJ being gone will affect him? He has bounced back both times before with his gone...)

Option B, pick the top HB, probably Barber...

Any suggestions from open draft guru's?

[LonghornBronco]

I think the Giants O is going to score alot this year, and Tiki is going to bring alot of points. However, They have a short yardage back that will probably steal all the goal line attempts from Tiki.

I drafted Portis with the tenth pick. I think he is also good for you because his injury is not severe and there is an outside chance he could start wk 1. Just make sure you handcuff betts w/him.

You might also consider a top wideout there like Steve smith or fitzgerald. Also I think Ronnie Brown will have a big year I picked him 11th.

Good luck

[youcandoit1687]

5th i would go with portis or barber. 20th pick, maybe a guy like anquan boldin(or the other receivers around there are all pretty safe) or a HB like cadillac williams, brian westbrook(injury????), droughns. next pick maybe a willie parker or warrick dunn, might not get the TDs but will produce 100 yards about eveyr week. wait on QB its heavy late this year.

[MechanicalBull]

I think Portis should be fine by week 2 the latest. Both the Giants and Skins should have pretty good offenses this year. It's a risk but you can take Manning first and then get 2 good WR in the next 2 rounds and then try for guys that are on the rebound like Jamal Lewis, Corey Dillon, Ahman Green, Duece Mcallister and so on. I was able to pick up Jamal Lewis very late in my drafts and hoping that he is healthy and now that the Ravens have Mcnair it will open up the offense.