Lidderer
07-09-2006, 01:28 PM
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/2006/07/07/ramblings/fo-mailbag/3998/
David Brude: I’m just curious to understand how Tatum Bell can average over a yard more per carry and yet have a DVOA that is only half of Mike Anderson�s? This is a general question I always have about teams that use two running backs. What kinds of situations allow the back with seemingly better stats to be rated lower? I mean, I can see where backs that run out the clock a lot will have a low YPA, but I don’t think that is the case here … or is it?
Are TD’s worth that much vs. yards per carry to make that big of a difference? What kinds of situations is Tatum Bell in that keep his DVOA low with such a high yards per rush? Or is it just that most of his runs go for little yardage but he breaks off very long runs that keep his YPA total very high? When he�s averaging a yard more than his closest competitor, something must be going on.
Aaron: First of all, here’s a look at the stats of the three Denver running backs for 2005:
Player DPAR Rank DVOA Rank Runs Yards YPA TD FUM Suc%
Anderson 37.0 8 20.3% 6 239 1014 4.2 12 1 55%
Bell 16.4 13 7.6% 12 173 920 5.3 8 3 43%
Dayne 9.0 – 25.5% – 53 270 5.1 1 0 53% –
Why is Anderson’s DVOA so much higher than Bell’s? The correct answer is definitely “most of his runs go for little yardage but he breaks off very long runs that keep his YPA total very high,” as you can see from this graph of how often each back ran for a given amount of yardage:
worthwhile discussion(at times) takes place in the comments section at the article's close.
David Brude: I’m just curious to understand how Tatum Bell can average over a yard more per carry and yet have a DVOA that is only half of Mike Anderson�s? This is a general question I always have about teams that use two running backs. What kinds of situations allow the back with seemingly better stats to be rated lower? I mean, I can see where backs that run out the clock a lot will have a low YPA, but I don’t think that is the case here … or is it?
Are TD’s worth that much vs. yards per carry to make that big of a difference? What kinds of situations is Tatum Bell in that keep his DVOA low with such a high yards per rush? Or is it just that most of his runs go for little yardage but he breaks off very long runs that keep his YPA total very high? When he�s averaging a yard more than his closest competitor, something must be going on.
Aaron: First of all, here’s a look at the stats of the three Denver running backs for 2005:
Player DPAR Rank DVOA Rank Runs Yards YPA TD FUM Suc%
Anderson 37.0 8 20.3% 6 239 1014 4.2 12 1 55%
Bell 16.4 13 7.6% 12 173 920 5.3 8 3 43%
Dayne 9.0 – 25.5% – 53 270 5.1 1 0 53% –
Why is Anderson’s DVOA so much higher than Bell’s? The correct answer is definitely “most of his runs go for little yardage but he breaks off very long runs that keep his YPA total very high,” as you can see from this graph of how often each back ran for a given amount of yardage:
worthwhile discussion(at times) takes place in the comments section at the article's close.