Home Valuations: 1st Qtr Numbers

[Bronco_Beerslug]

Looks like a huge increase in just two years in overvalued homes. Colorado seems to be around 6-8% overvalued while places in CA and FL are way up there.

------------------------------------------------------------
House Prices in America: Valuation Update

Summary
• Overvaluation became more pervasive during the first quarter of 2006.

• Seventy-one metro areas, accounting for 39 percent of all single family housing value, were deemed to be extremely over-valued at that time. That represents an increase from 64 markets, and 36 percent of all single family market value, during the fourth quarter.

• As recently as the first quarter of 2004, overvaluation was insignificant. At that time only 3 metro areas,
accounting for just 1 percent of all single family house value, were deemed to be extremely overvalued.

• The coastal states of California and Florida continue to show the highest concentration of overvalued markets, accounting for 17 of the top 20.

• Quarter-to-Quarter price appreciation is slowing in most metro areas, and is nearly flat in San Diego and
Boston.

• Property price appreciation remains strongest among the most over-valued metro areas, and visa-versa. Between the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, the correlation between valuation and appreciation was +0.36, suggesting that house prices are diverging, not converging, with respect to normal valuations.


Charts and figures for most cities here... http://www.globalinsight.com/gcpath/1Q2006report.pdf

[smalltowngrll]

LOL...yep, I knew it...my home town...#5 on the list! And home prices have risen even more since the first quarter!

[alkemical]

i can't wait for the correction

[ak1971]

What I find really 'funny' about this, is what I call 'house snobs' People have this mindset that thier home is worth X amount of money. It was worth that last year and it should be worth 5%-10% more this year. So these same people wont let thier homes go for anything less that what they believe thier homes to be worth. all the while the market is declining around them, but yet they need/want to sell thier home right now.

[ak1971]

Looks like a huge increase in just two years in overvalued homes. Colorado seems to be around 6-8% overvalued while places in CA and FL are way up there.

------------------------------------------------------------
House Prices in America: Valuation Update

Summary
• Overvaluation became more pervasive during the first quarter of 2006.

• Seventy-one metro areas, accounting for 39 percent of all single family housing value, were deemed to be extremely over-valued at that time. That represents an increase from 64 markets, and 36 percent of all single family market value, during the fourth quarter.

• As recently as the first quarter of 2004, overvaluation was insignificant. At that time only 3 metro areas,
accounting for just 1 percent of all single family house value, were deemed to be extremely overvalued.

• The coastal states of California and Florida continue to show the highest concentration of overvalued markets, accounting for 17 of the top 20.

• Quarter-to-Quarter price appreciation is slowing in most metro areas, and is nearly flat in San Diego and
Boston.

• Property price appreciation remains strongest among the most over-valued metro areas, and visa-versa. Between the fourth quarter of 2005 and the first quarter of 2006, the correlation between valuation and appreciation was +0.36, suggesting that house prices are diverging, not converging, with respect to normal valuations.


Charts and figures for most cities here... http://www.globalinsight.com/gcpath/1Q2006report.pdf

stuff like this will always be regional though. As one market cools another one takes off. There will never be a .com style bust of real estate.

[Mile High Shack]

stuff like this will always be regional though. As one market cools another one takes off. There will never be a .com style bust of real estate.

no matter how bad some people want it to happen

not mentioning any names

:afro:

[defenseman]

stuff like this will always be regional though. As one market cools another one takes off. There will never be a .com style bust of real estate.

South Carolina, Charleston....Savannah, Ga....Jax, FL...dman..stand by for a year or two appreciation above the norm..

[alkemical]

Actually that's where you guys are wrong. A big time correction of the market will happen. It happened in the 80's, and it will happen again.

Once unemployment goes up again, and people will be forced to forclose on their homes - the banks go back to selling property cheap to cover their costs. So i'm waiting for some of these house 'flippers' who get tied up into too much property and can't cover the loss they will eventually have to cave and sell to me, cheaper.

Buy when the economy is bad, sell when it is good.

[Mile High Shack]

Actually that's where you guys are wrong. A big time correction of the market will happen. It happened in the 80's, and it will happen again.

Once unemployment goes up again, and people will be forced to forclose on their homes - the banks go back to selling property cheap to cover their costs. So i'm waiting for some of these house 'flippers' who get tied up into too much property and can't cover the loss they will eventually have to cave and sell to me, cheaper.

Buy when the economy is bad, sell when it is good.

you aren't exactly right in regards to property

sure some of the people who "flip" houses are going to get burned, but most people who buy their house to live in it won't get screwed

[ak1971]

Actually that's where you guys are wrong. A big time correction of the market will happen. It happened in the 80's, and it will happen again.

Once unemployment goes up again, and people will be forced to forclose on their homes - the banks go back to selling property cheap to cover their costs. So i'm waiting for some of these house 'flippers' who get tied up into too much property and can't cover the loss they will eventually have to cave and sell to me, cheaper.

Buy when the economy is bad, sell when it is good.


A nationwide bubble pop will not happen. I would agree with your last comment though.

[alkemical]

you aren't exactly right in regards to property

sure some of the people who "flip" houses are going to get burned, but most people who buy their house to live in it won't get screwed



Actually they will one way or another. If their mortgage (ever wonder why the root for 'death' is in mortgage?) is taken out at the inflated rate, they will then be further upside down in their servitude the the bank (pending if the house values falls, even say $15k). Banks won't loose their money, but people will loose their house.

[alkemical]

A nationwide bubble pop will not happen. I would agree with your last comment though.


oh really?

What happens if gas were to shoot up to $5/gal?

[Mile High Shack]

Actually they will one way or another. If their mortgage (ever wonder why the root for 'death' is in mortgage?) is taken out at the inflated rate, they will then be further upside down in their servitude the the bank (pending if the house values falls, even say $15k). Banks won't loose their money, but people will loose their house.

such a pessimist

you make it sound like everyone is going to lose their job and people will be homeless and pandhandling

geez

[Mile High Shack]

oh really?

What happens if gas were to shoot up to $5/gal?


then people will stop driving as much

[alkemical]

then people will stop driving as much


Yes - As we know - Most americans don't live 'near' their work (i don't - nor most of my coworkers) -

[Rascal]

Looks like I should buy some property in Texas specifically Houston. Geesh.

[Mile High Shack]

Yes - As we know - Most americans don't live 'near' their work (i don't - nor most of my coworkers) -

well
for one
they will cut down on un needed trips to the mall or around the corner to the fast food joint

insted they will walk

like I am doing now, I use to drive to the gym that is about a 1/2 mile away, I just walk there now

[alkemical]

well
for one
they will cut down on un needed trips to the mall or around the corner to the fast food joint

insted they will walk

like I am doing now, I use to drive to the gym that is about a 1/2 mile away, I just walk there now


MHS, not only does gasoline go up, but fuel oil - propane/NG, etc - this isn't just about unneccesary trips - this ripple effect goes through everything.

But then, when our dollar is based up our GDP, when our GDP falls, our money becomes worthless......

[ak1971]

MHS, not only does gasoline go up, but fuel oil - propane/NG, etc - this isn't just about unneccesary trips - this ripple effect goes through everything.

But then, when our dollar is based up our GDP, when our GDP falls, our money becomes worthless......

Again, a national 'bubble pop' isnt going to happen.

Ever heard of adaptation? Things change so people adapt to that change. That used to be the American way. Guess now we just bitch and think its the end of the world

[alkemical]

Again, a national 'bubble pop' isnt going to happen.

Ever heard of adaptation? Things change so people adapt to that change. That used to be the American way. Guess now we just b**** and think its the end of the world


Yeah, because the economy NEVER drops on it's ass. I know it was like 70 years or so - but it will and does happen.

Guess it's better to have my head up my ass and just believe everything is a-ok all the time instead of preparing for a bumpy ride.

[TheDave]

It's all my fault...hehehe

[ak1971]

Yeah, because the economy NEVER drops on it's ass. I know it was like 70 years or so - but it will and does happen.

Guess it's better to have my head up my ass and just believe everything is a-ok all the time instead of preparing for a bumpy ride.

Cheer up dude take some prozac. Things might be bumpy, but it aint all gloom and doom as some want us to believe.

[alkemical]

Cheer up dude take some prozac. Things might be bumpy, but it aint all gloom and doom as some want us to believe.


I'm not sad, i know how to handle such an issue. I have some precious metals saved, i have no car loans - and i have some tidy cash waiting for when the swank wankers to realize that credit means someone owns you.

[ak1971]

I'm not sad, i know how to handle such an issue. I have some precious metals saved, i have no car loans - and i have some tidy cash waiting for when the swank wankers to realize that credit means someone owns you.


credit doesnt really mean someone owns you. Just have to use it like a tool. Much as a carpenter uses a hammer.

[alkemical]

credit doesnt really mean someone owns you. Just have to use it like a tool. Much as a carpenter uses a hammer.


LOL, that's funny.

Let me ask you something, if you have a mortgage do you own your house? If your car has a lean on it, do you own it?

Nope, nada - the banks have the title. You are 'renting'.

[ak1971]

LOL, that's funny.

Let me ask you something, if you have a mortgage do you own your house? If your car has a lean on it, do you own it?

Nope, nada - the banks have the title. You are 'renting'.


Like I said, one needs use it like a tool. Right now with a 30 year mortgage on my home in the low 5s, it would be stupid for me to own my home f/c. When currently I can get 18% returns elsewhere. When those go away, you adapt and change gears.
You always need a place to live, might as well use it to your advantage. I'll give you the car part though...crappy things to buy

[Raider Bill]

Hmm, it would appear that my area is only on the order of 17% overvalued, yet I bought this place in 2004 for 206 thousand, and it is now easily worth 290-310k judging by what other cribs around here are going for.

[Bronco_Beerslug]

stuff like this will always be regional though. As one market cools another one takes off. There will never be a .com style bust of real estate.
Yeah, there is no national bubble (because of the different regional economic demographics) but there are the regional bubbles that will have some effect on the economy going forward.

[smalltowngrll]

I don't believe that all markets will "pop". I do believe that some areas will, but when the market is not based upon the interest rate rising or falling, and the market is desireable, then it will continue to grow. It may not grow at the same pace, but it still will grow, or stableize a bit. As for my area...I don't see it dying much. Yeah, homes aren't selling in 5 days like they were a few months back, but they still sell within a month or so of going on the market. We aren't bound by the interest rate, yet!

[broncocalijohn]

Looks like I should buy some property in Texas specifically Houston. Geesh.
Sure, if you like living with the new crime they have thanks to the New Orleans residents. You will be able to buy property soon on this one condition regardless if prices drop extreme or not. Anybody who bought a house that they normally couldnt afford but their loan nazi got them a 0% interest rate then corrects to an adjustable rate, your "i am fu#*ed" time is here! My equity line will be going up from May's $612 minimum payment to $812 next month on about $125,000 owed. Luckily, I got in on a 15 year fixed rate of 5% 15 year loan on the house but you can see just a small loan amount will kill someone who put 1% down on a 600000 home a few years ago. I GOT CASH READY TO SCOOP UP ON THEIR HOUSE......SLURP!

[watermock]

Home overvaluation is Bush's fault. I see.

[broncocalijohn]

LOL, that's funny.

Let me ask you something, if you have a mortgage do you own your house? If your car has a lean on it, do you own it?

Nope, nada - the banks have the title. You are 'renting'.

No if we have a mortgage, we arent "renting". We own our house and the bank holds title to collect on the loan. If i am renting, i cant sell the house i am living in. Renters do not benefit from a house going up or down unless the OWNER decides to increase or decrease rent. The bank cannot change a loan unless their is a default or it is an adjustable loan (which is really decded by the fed not the bank). I own my house and when i sell, the bank cannot tell me how much to sell the house. The bank is involved only to get the amount left on the loan. SO, amesj523 you are wrong. Huge difference of "renting" and owning your property. IF you dont believe it, go rent and try to sell the property.

[watermock]

LOL, that's funny.

Let me ask you something, if you have a mortgage do you own your house? If your car has a lean on it, do you own it?

Nope, nada - the banks have the title. You are 'renting'.

No, but your not a renter. If your more than capable to buy it outright noone is going to stop you. If you can buy your car outright, noone is going to stop you. YOur an idiot. WTF do you think a loan is?

[defenseman]

you aren't exactly right in regards to property

sure some of the people who "flip" houses are going to get burned, but most people who buy their house to live in it won't get screwed

exactly, it all evens out...dman

[defenseman]

Actually that's where you guys are wrong. A big time correction of the market will happen. It happened in the 80's, and it will happen again.

Once unemployment goes up again, and people will be forced to forclose on their homes - the banks go back to selling property cheap to cover their costs. So i'm waiting for some of these house 'flippers' who get tied up into too much property and can't cover the loss they will eventually have to cave and sell to me, cheaper.
Buy when the economy is bad, sell when it is good.

A correction? Sure, but select areas will come down a significant amount. San Fran, S. Diego, Seattle, Miami, Las Vegas...the ones truley over inflated. I'm thinking most of the rest of the country will see a minor adjustment. Survivors? Phoenix area is what I'm thinking and in general Arizona, but we'll see. Foreclosures? Yes, I'm thinking they will go up, however, a significant contributor is time is the ARM. Wants interest rates go up enough, those that bet they wouldn't will be priced out of their payment...aka ...MOST of california. I'm seeing prime opportunities to purchase california real estate at below market value in the near future if trends continue. In any case, I see california being hit reasonably hard as well as Hawaii. Yep, same here I'll be looking for some good deals on vacation property and attempting to invest some cash in that direction at a very low market price..dman

[alkemical]

No if we have a mortgage, we arent "renting". We own our house and the bank holds title to collect on the loan. If i am renting, i cant sell the house i am living in. Renters do not benefit from a house going up or down unless the OWNER decides to increase or decrease rent. The bank cannot change a loan unless their is a default or it is an adjustable loan (which is really decded by the fed not the bank). I own my house and when i sell, the bank cannot tell me how much to sell the house. The bank is involved only to get the amount left on the loan. SO, amesj523 you are wrong. Huge difference of "renting" and owning your property. IF you dont believe it, go rent and try to sell the property.


Who owns your house? If you don't have the title, you don't own it. The bank owns it. Just like if you don't pay your taxes, 'the state' owns it.

I'm not wrong at all. If you "OWE" on your car/home, you don't OWN it now do you? Tell me what happens if you don't make a house payment or a car payment. Who do you answer to then? Who do you answer to every month?


See, i'm not wrong - i just learned how to beat capitalism. I don't play the credit/debit game anymore... I'm a cash money operator 90% of the time.

[Bronco_Beerslug]

Who owns your house? If you don't have the title, you don't own it. The bank owns it. Just like if you don't pay your taxes, 'the state' owns it.

I'm not wrong at all. If you "OWE" on your car/home, you don't OWN it now do you? Tell me what happens if you don't make a house payment or a car payment. Who do you answer to then?
Yeah, ownership isn't the correct word when you mortgage a home but renting isn't either. I'm not sure what would be the most appropriate term either.

[alkemical]

Yeah, ownership isn't the correct word when you mortgage a home but renting isn't either. I'm not sure what would be the most appropriate term either.


I will agree to that. My term 'rent' was a poor choice, but really you are paying to stay there... ;)

[defenseman]

Who owns your house? If you don't have the title, you don't own it. The bank owns it. Just like if you don't pay your taxes, 'the state' owns it.

I'm not wrong at all. If you "OWE" on your car/home, you don't OWN it now do you? Tell me what happens if you don't make a house payment or a car payment. Who do you answer to then? Who do you answer to every month?


See, i'm not wrong - i just learned how to beat capitalism. I don't play the credit/debit game anymore... I'm a cash money operator 90% of the time.

I agree to a point. Depending on the credit card, you can make money back to a degree. But, if you "have to" spend the money anyway, might as well make a bit back. AND, don't charge what you cannot cover with cash WHEN THE BILL COMES DUE. Interest payments can be a killer. And yes, it is nice to "own" your house and cars, and not have to make any monthly payments. Depending on where you live though, the six month payment on property taxes really pisses me off sometimes...dman

[enjolras]

Yeah, ownership isn't the correct word when you mortgage a home but renting isn't either. I'm not sure what would be the most appropriate term either.

Ownership is definitely the right word... you hold title on the house (its your name on it, not the banks). They hold the property as collateral on the loan, but they don't own it.

Don't beleive me? Next time it snows don't shovel... and when someone falls on your sidewalk and breaks something who is going ot be liable? THAT person owns the house...

Hell in many circumstances (taxes for one) the mortgage company doesn't even have first lien on the house.

[alkemical]

I agree to a point. Depending on the credit card, you can make money back to a degree. But, if you "have to" spend the money anyway, might as well make a bit back. AND, don't charge what you cannot cover with cash WHEN THE BILL COMES DUE. Interest payments can be a killer. And yes, it is nice to "own" your house and cars, and not have to make any monthly payments. Depending on where you live though, the six month payment on property taxes really pisses me off sometimes...dman


Oh and Dman, i do understand a mortgage is an evil we all must partake for the most part. But i'm glad you got my gist of what i'm getting across.

But i know lots of people that make $30k, and buy a $50k car..... i'm sure most of you do to.

[alkemical]

Ownership is definitely the right word... you hold title on the house (its your name on it, not the banks). They hold the property as collateral on the loan, but they don't own it.

Don't beleive me? Next time it snows don't shovel... and when someone falls on your sidewalk and breaks something who is going ot be liable? THAT person owns the house...

Hell in many circumstances (taxes for one) the mortgage company doesn't even have first lien on the house.


It's that way with my townhouse i rent currently. If i don't shovel, i'm still liable for 'maintence and removal of snow, obstacles". The only thing i don't have to pay is if the concrete is actually broken.

When you OWE, you don't OWN. Sorry, you are responsible because you are the principle - but the bank could pretty much do what it wants with ya.

[defenseman]

Oh and Dman, i do understand a mortgage is an evil we all must partake for the most part. But i'm glad you got my gist of what i'm getting across.

But i know lots of people that make $30k, and buy a $50k car..... i'm sure most of you do to.

Trying to keep up with the Jones' can put one into the poor house. And besides, a car is what it is, a car. I believe most cars are designed to quench the thirst of the "egos" of their drivers. Not reasonable transportation for a growing family..dman

[alkemical]

Trying to keep up with the Jones' can put one into the poor house. And besides, a car is what it is, a car. I believe most cars are designed to quench the thirst of the "egos" of their drivers. Not reasonable transportation for a growing family..dman


Oh dman, i know. I used to have an MR2 (poor man's ferrari) -

But, i realized, a vehicle is a vehicle. But then, materialism is a short lived high.....

[Bronco_Beerslug]

Ownership is definitely the right word... you hold title on the house (its your name on it, not the banks). They hold the property as collateral on the loan, but they don't own it.

Don't beleive me? Next time it snows don't shovel... and when someone falls on your sidewalk and breaks something who is going ot be liable? THAT person owns the house...

Hell in many circumstances (taxes for one) the mortgage company doesn't even have first lien on the house.

Well, it's close to the "right" word. The title is in your name but you really are just assuming responsibility for that property not true ownership.

[alkemical]

Well, it's close to the "right" word. The title is in your name but you really are just assuming responsibility for that property not true ownership.


it's like paying to be the maintence man for an apt building... ;) lol j/k

[enjolras]

It's that way with my townhouse i rent currently. If i don't shovel, i'm still liable for 'maintence and removal of snow, obstacles". The only thing i don't have to pay is if the concrete is actually broken.

When you OWE, you don't OWN. Sorry, you are responsible because you are the principle - but the bank could pretty much do what it wants with ya.

The owner of the house you rent (through contract) has placed his liability on you.

There are lots of other examples. Does the state charge the bank for property taxes?

The bank needs no such contract, because they don't own your house in any form. The bank can't do what it wants with you... they can only do what the contract allows them to do. You still own the house.. you've just chosen to use what you own as collateral for a loan. You don't need the banks permission to change the house, make improvements, or do anything with it (that doesn't destroy its collateral value at least) and the bank can't generally stop you. Try doing that in a house you rent.

[defenseman]

Well, it's close to the "right" word. The title is in your name but you really are just assuming responsibility for that property not true ownership.

I "owned" my abode in the islands before I sold it, the bank did not get a dime of the profit. I definitely owned that money, and the bank didn't. Felt pretty damned good if you know what I mean...dman

[defenseman]

The owner of the house you rent (through contract) has placed his liability on you.

There are lots of other examples. Does the state charge the bank for property taxes?

The bank needs no such contract, because they don't own your house in any form. The bank can't do what it wants with you... they can only do what the contract allows them to do. You still own the house.. you've just chosen to use what you own as collateral for a loan. You don't need the banks permission to change the house, make improvements, or do anything with it (that doesn't destroy its collateral value at least) and the bank can't generally stop you. Try doing that in a house you rent.

that said...a "lease hold" vice "fee simple" property is somewhat different..dman

[alkemical]

The owner of the house you rent (through contract) has placed his liability on you.

There are lots of other examples. Does the state charge the bank for property taxes?

The bank needs no such contract, because they don't own your house in any form. The bank can't do what it wants with you... they can only do what the contract allows them to do. You still own the house.. you've just chosen to use what you own as collateral for a loan. You don't need the banks permission to change the house, make improvements, or do anything with it (that doesn't destroy its collateral value at least) and the bank can't generally stop you. Try doing that in a house you rent.


Who do you answer to each month when you write out the check?

As long as you OWE money you are owned yourself. It's a simple matter of that principle. You have legal options that an actual 'renter' many not have - but in reality, until you have that deed in your possesion, and you have no money owned on it - it's not 'yours'.

As dman pointed out the profit was his, but the mortgage is a contract - which affords you some legal rights - but the bank still holds it over you.

[smalltowngrll]

Who do you answer to each month when you write out the check?

As long as you OWE money you are owned yourself. It's a simple matter of that principle. You have legal options that an actual 'renter' many not have - but in reality, until you have that deed in your possesion, and you have no money owned on it - it's not 'yours'.

As dman pointed out the profit was his, but the mortgage is a contract - which affords you some legal rights - but the bank still holds it over you.

For that matter, even if the deed is iin your own hands...you are still "owned". You are owned by the county you live in, if you live in city limits, you are owned by the city and you are owned by your own neighborhood if you have to abide by any cc&r's. For that matter, you have to pay taxes on that "property", so you are owned their too. If you choose to NOT pay those taxes, then you will lose your property, same as if you don't pay your house payment. So, when do you REALLY own it? I think next to never....if I go by what your thought is. But, I get what your saying....

oh, what I would give to be debt free! About the only thing I do own is my car! Nice feeling, though!

[alkemical]

For that matter, even if the deed is iin your own hands...you are still "owned". You are owned by the county you live in, if you live in city limits, you are owned by the city and you are owned by your own neighborhood if you have to abide by any cc&r's. For that matter, you have to pay taxes on that "property", so you are owned their too. If you choose to NOT pay those taxes, then you will lose your property, same as if you don't pay your house payment. So, when do you REALLY own it? I think next to never....if I go by what your thought is. But, I get what your saying....

oh, what I would give to be debt free! About the only thing I do own is my car! Nice feeling, though!


That's my point Smalltowngirl,

I look at the current system as a very overall negative in terms of actual ownership. Even if you do pay your taxes and 'own' your home, you are still very much subject to 'the state' (taxes, eminent domain, etc).

I learned this after i became homeless. That was probably the most free i ever felt, not that it was all roses mind you. But to understand it from that perspective - and actually see it and live it - was an eye opener. Then i realized in order to beat it and say ahead of the game, was to "owe" as little as humanly possible.

When you really look at it, it's a really great 'scheme' for banks, governements to really bank on you. It really is like the fuedal system of old.

[defenseman]

For that matter, even if the deed is iin your own hands...you are still "owned". You are owned by the county you live in, if you live in city limits, you are owned by the city and you are owned by your own neighborhood if you have to abide by any cc&r's. For that matter, you have to pay taxes on that "property", so you are owned their too. If you choose to NOT pay those taxes, then you will lose your property, same as if you don't pay your house payment. So, when do you REALLY own it? I think next to never....if I go by what your thought is. But, I get what your saying....

oh, what I would give to be debt free! About the only thing I do own is my car! Nice feeling, though!

Property tax? Yep, and in NE it can get pretty damn expensive, then again, it's my only payment, and it's twice a year..dman

[smalltowngrll]

That's my point Smalltowngirl,

I look at the current system as a very overall negative in terms of actual ownership. Even if you do pay your taxes and 'own' your home, you are still very much subject to 'the state' (taxes, eminent domain, etc).

I learned this after i became homeless. That was probably the most free i ever felt, not that it was all roses mind you. But to understand it from that perspective - and actually see it and live it - was an eye opener. Then i realized in order to beat it and say ahead of the game, was to "owe" as little as humanly possible.

When you really look at it, it's a really great 'scheme' for banks, governements to really bank on you. It really is like the fuedal system of old.

I get what your saying! Definitely. I'm not a hater of the "system", I just like to play in it wisely!

I've thought several times about how it would be nice to sell my house and travel all over the place for a good year! I think it would be a lot of fun...but, reality is, I think I would get bored after a month...and it might get a little lonely by myself! :giggle: Not to mention it really would ruin my plans of retiring at 50, too....ok, well, maybe 55!

[alkemical]

I get what your saying! Definitely. I'm not a hater of the "system", I just like to play in it wisely!

I've thought several times about how it would be nice to sell my house and travel all over the place for a good year! I think it would be a lot of fun...but, reality is, I think I would get bored after a month...and it might get a little lonely by myself! :giggle: Not to mention it really would ruin my plans of retiring at 50, too....ok, well, maybe 55!


I wouldn't retire if i can do something i love. I don't mind work.


I've come to the conclusion i probably won't retire... lots of different factors.

[defenseman]

I wouldn't retire if i can do something i love. I don't mind work.


I've come to the conclusion i probably won't retire... lots of different factors.

Same here ames. Have to find suitable employment in the civilian sector. Don't know what it is, but, I'll do something I enjoy once retired..dman

[Garcia Bronco]

Actually that's where you guys are wrong. A big time correction of the market will happen. It happened in the 80's, and it will happen again.

Once unemployment goes up again, and people will be forced to forclose on their homes - the banks go back to selling property cheap to cover their costs. So i'm waiting for some of these house 'flippers' who get tied up into too much property and can't cover the loss they will eventually have to cave and sell to me, cheaper.

Buy when the economy is bad, sell when it is good.


and folks...he's exactly right

[defenseman]

and folks...he's exactly right

Agreed, however the correction won't be nearly as bad as the 80's. If you are invested correctly should be nothing more than a speed bump...dman

Interest rates will have to adjusted to provide somewhat of a cushion. But, the possibility of a boon in low cost real estate will be a definitel possibility, agreed...dman

[bendog]

I'm lost. The "young folks" I see buy because its cheaper than rent. In all likihood, I will pay off the mortgage before moving again.

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/retirement/5952

I'm hoping to "retire" to a college town little girl dog is a grad student in, and begin a second (fifth actually) career as an english teacher. Though, that's where I started out ....

[defenseman]

I'm lost. The "young folks" I see buy because its cheaper than rent. In all likihood, I will pay off the mortgage before moving again.

http://finance.yahoo.com/columnist/article/retirement/5952

I'm hoping to "retire" to a college town little girl dog is a grad student in, and begin a second (fifth actually) career as an english teacher. Though, that's where I started out ....

Depending on how much principal is left AND how much of your payment goes to interest. Well, paying off the mortgage can work for or against, dependent on the interest rate at the time and how much of a buyout you need to shell out.....dman

[bendog]

Sure. The "young kids" I'm thinking of are professionals in their mid/late 20s. I don't know if they're paying off principal, but their payments are less than rent on a townhouse or even apt would be.

As for me, I'd expect that when the principal gets down, Mrs. Dog will either re-fi or even pay it off and buy another house somewhere. We've discussed buying a townhouse in Oxford Miss so I could commute one night a week to take classes, and rent the thing to ... imo, hopefully a georgeous 25 year old graduate student who'd like a meaningless shallow one night a week sex escapde with a "fortyish" lazy fat drunk

[Meck77]

That's my point Smalltowngirl,

I look at the current system as a very overall negative in terms of actual ownership. Even if you do pay your taxes and 'own' your home, you are still very much subject to 'the state' (taxes, eminent domain, etc).

I learned this after i became homeless. That was probably the most free i ever felt, not that it was all roses mind you. But to understand it from that perspective - and actually see it and live it - was an eye opener. Then i realized in order to beat it and say ahead of the game, was to "owe" as little as humanly possible.

When you really look at it, it's a really great 'scheme' for banks, governements to really bank on you. It really is like the fuedal system of old.

I see the point you are trying to make amesj but borrowing money and having debt on real estate isn't bad debt. Car loans and credit cards are another story. My theory is if you have to charge it you shouldn't buy it.

Amesj if you are waiting on the sidelines for the "fix and flip" guys to make a mistake so you can swoop in and grab one of their deals I'm afraid you'll be renting for a long time. Sure there are guys that get in trouble and make mistakes but that's life. The problem with your theory is that while you've been sitting on cash interest rates have obviously been on the rise. You could have found a "good deal" out there and put in your own sweat equity in. You seem like a a resourceful person who isn't afraid to work. With each rate hike it's getting more and more expensive to borrow money. Meanwhile depending on where you live the homes are getting more and more expensive to purchase.

I want to clarify something you said about borrowing money for real estate also. I look at alot of different investments in a given week and I've yet to find one where a Bank is willing to lend me money and I can find someone else to pay MY BILL (tenant) while the asset appreciates over the long term consistently. The key is to be leverged correctly. There is nothing more that a landord loves more than a tenant who is happy to continue renting. There are definetly cicumstances where renting make sense. I'm not saying it's a bad thing but if you are thinking about buying a property and have a little cash on hand DO IT. Being a landlord has it's downside also. There are repairs to make etc and when push comes to shove even evictions. Knock on wood I haven't had to do that for a few years now.

Not every house out there is a good deal. I'll look at 100deals before I make a move unless I know I have a ready, willing, and able tenant. That changes everything.

I love talking to savy old investors. I'm talking about guys who are 80 years old or so. I always ask them what mistakes they've made in real estate. The most common answer I hear is "I shouldn't have sold that house on XYZ street or that piece of land in XYZ city because it's worth 3 times what I sold it for!" I never hear them say " I shouldn't have bought this property". It's rare. Granted you have to turns some property to get started and you can't keep it all but YOU HAVE TO START WITH SOMETHING AND OWNING A PRIMARY RESIDENCE IS THE EASIEST AND BEST PLACE TO START.

[alkemical]

I see the point you are trying to make amesj but borrowing money and having debt on real estate isn't bad debt. Car loans and credit cards are another story. My theory is if you have to charge it you shouldn't buy it.

Amesj if you are waiting on the sidelines for the "fix and flip" guys to make a mistake so you can swoop in and grab one of their deals I'm afraid you'll be renting for a long time. Sure there are guys that get in trouble and make mistakes but that's life. The problem with your theory is that while you've been sitting on cash interest rates have obviously been on the rise. You could have found a "good deal" out there and put in your own sweat equity in. You seem like a a resourceful person who isn't afraid to work. With each rate hike it's getting more and more expensive to borrow money. Meanwhile depending on where you live the homes are getting more and more expensive to purchase.

I want to clarify something you said about borrowing money for real estate also. I look at alot of different investments in a given week and I've yet to find one where a Bank is willing to lend me money and I can find someone else to pay MY BILL (tenant) while the asset appreciates over the long term consistently. The key is to be leverged correctly. There is nothing more that a landord loves more than a tenant who is a happy to continue renting. There are definetly cicumstances where renting make sense. I'm not saying it's a bad thing but if you are thinking about buying a property and have a little cash on hand DO IT.

Not every house out there is a good deal. I'll look at 100deals before I make a move unless I know I have a ready, willing, and able tenant. That changes everything.

I love talking to savy old investors. I'm talking about guys who are 80 years old or so. I always ask them what mistakes they've made in real estate. The most common answer I hear is "I shouldn't have sold that house on XYZ street or that piece of land in XYZ city because it's worth 3 times what I sold it for!" I never hear them say " I shouldn't have bought this property". It's rare. Granted you have to turns some property to get started and you can't keep it all but YOU HAVE TO START WITH SOMETHING AND OWNING A PRIMARY RESIDENCE IS THE EASIEST AND BEST PLACE TO START.



I'm waiting for the old people down the block to put up their small apt building for sale - 10 units, they did well with upkeep - i know they are retiring soon -

and meck - paitence is the biggest assest to long term growth. The money i have earmarked, i knew i wasn't going to 'move' with it, so i dumped half into a cd and the other half is liquid so i can move with it -

I won't go back into the stock market though - i found some better uses for the money than that.

[Meck77]

I'm waiting for the old people down the block to put up their small apt building for sale - 10 units, they did well with upkeep - i know they are retiring soon -

and meck - paitence is the biggest assest to long term growth. The money i have earmarked, i knew i wasn't going to 'move' with it, so i dumped half into a cd and the other half is liquid so i can move with it -

I won't go back into the stock market though - i found some better uses for the money than that.

Right on. I've followed your story over the last couple years. I can tell you are a patient person. Good luck with it.

[alkemical]

Right on. I've followed your story over the last couple years. I can tell you are a patient person. Good luck with it.


meck, i live on about 1/3 of my salary at the moment so - i am used to living without.

[broncocalijohn]

It's that way with my townhouse i rent currently. If i don't shovel, i'm still liable for 'maintence and removal of snow, obstacles". The only thing i don't have to pay is if the concrete is actually broken.

When you OWE, you don't OWN. Sorry, you are responsible because you are the principle - but the bank could pretty much do what it wants with ya.

You own the house you owe on a loan. Title is in the BUYERS NAME NOT THE BANK! How hard is that to understand? Keep buying only in cash and you will be able to afford a trailor somewhere in a park. Rates are going up and when the market comes down, it wont be lower than when you could have entered and a better loan. But keep renting and see what "equity" is in that! Talk to a banker and a real estate agent on "owning". Maybe the pros are wrong and amesj523 is right......sure! BTW: Now you need to time the market. A little tougher now. Good Luck on "owning" that property.

[alkemical]

You own the house you owe on a loan. Title is in the BUYERS NAME NOT THE BANK! How hard is that to understand? Keep buying only in cash and you will be able to afford a trailor somewhere in a park. Rates are going up and when the market comes down, it wont be lower than when you could have entered and a better loan. But keep renting and see what "equity" is in that! Talk to a banker and a real estate agent on "owning". Maybe the pros are wrong and amesj523 is right......sure! BTW: Now you need to time the market. A little tougher now. Good Luck on "owning" that property.



Seeing that i live on 1/3 of my salary - i have a nice nest egg built up - renting is actually more benificial for my future plans. But ownership is an illusion when it comes to using credit.