Well, as much the Rocks irritate me with whatever draft philosophy they used, Peter Gammons' article is good tonic. Nevertheless, until they can get a quality GM and manager, it does not matter who they pick.
Whatever, but here is an interesting piece by Gammons and the draft:
Uncovering draft gems
posted: Saturday, June 3, 2006
No one knows what Andrew Miller will do in the major leagues, or Luke Hochevar, Brad Lincoln or Evan Longoria for that matter. Maybe Miller will become the next C.C. Sabathia or Randy Johnson, Hochevar the next Jake Peavy.
But while Miller and Hochevar appear to be potential front-end starting pitchers and the prodigies of Tuesday's draft that is considered the weakest in six years, there are no guarantees. Brien Taylor and Todd Van Poppel were sure things. So were Paul Wilson and Darren Dreifort.
Remember how the Twins were ridiculed in 2001 for taking Joe Mauer with the first pick instead of Mark Prior? Five years later, try to see if the Twins will make that trade, as despite a knee injury and the eventual possibility of a move to third base, Mauer is a rising star, while Prior has suffered from the modern pitcher's real world of inexplicable injuries. And since making his Cubs debut on May 22, 2002, Prior is 60th in the majors in wins with 41.
Therein lies Rule No. 1 of baseball draft watching: Nothing is predictable. Hey, David Wright lasted until the second round. Grady Sizemore until the third. The Dodgers have some of the best young players in the game, and Matt Kemp was a sixth rounder, Andy LaRoche a 39th-round pick, Russell Martin the 17th round.
Just go through history. In 1990, the consensus was that Van Poppel was far and away the best player on the board. Then-Braves GM Bobby Cox negotiated with Van Poppel, and in the midst of it didn't like what he saw in the kid's eyes. Cox got up, flew to Jacksonville and made a pre-draft deal with a young shortstop. For weeks after the draft, Cox was ridiculed by scouts, draftniks and some media for making the cheap choice.
The shortstop? Chipper Jones, arguably bound for Cooperstown. Van Poppel was 36-46, 5.50 for his career.
Oakland that year had what was called the greatest pitching draft ever. Their names? Van Poppel, Kirk Dressendorfer, Don Peters, Dave Zancanaro, Curtis Shaw, Chaon Garland. Dressendorfer was the only one other than Van Poppel who ever made it to the show, and he was 3-3 before injuries cut short his career. Area scout J.P. Ricciardi took Tanyon Sturtze in the 23rd round, and he turned out to be their best out of the draft.
In '91, the first eight picks were Taylor, Mike Kelly, David McCarty, Dmitri Young, Ken Henderson, John Burke and Joe Vitiello. In '92, they were Phil Nevin, Paul Shuey, B.J. Wallace, Jeffrey Hammonds, Chad Mottola and -- yeah -- Derek Jeter. In '93, there were many voices in the Mariners organization that preferred the college pitching star named Darren Dreifort over Alex Rodriguez, and when Seattle took A-Rod the next five picks were all college pitchers: Dreifort, Brian Anderson, Wayne Gomes, Jeff Granger and Steve Soderstrom.
Then there was 1994, when Nomar Garciaparra, Paul Konerko and Jason Varitek were taken in succession, 12th, 13th and 14th. Paul Wilson, Ben Grieve, Dustin Hermanson, Antoine Williamson, Josh Booty, McKay Christensen and Doug Million were the first seven; Booty did make it to the NFL.
Matt Anderson was the first pick in the country in '97. Josh Hamilton was No. 1 in '99, followed by Josh Beckett, then Eric Munson, Corey Myers, B.J. Garbe, Josh Girdley, Kyle Snyder and Bobby Bradley.
And, finally, there was the draft often compared to what will unfurl Tuesday -- 2000, when Adrian Gonzalez, Adam Johnson, Luis Montanez, Mike Stodolka, Justin Wayne, Rocco Baldelli, Matt Harrington, Matt Wheatland, Mark Phillips and Joe Torrez were the first ten. Twenty of the 30 players in the first round have never sniffed the big leagues, but Chase Utley did go at 25. But look down the list: The eighth round provided Dontrelle Willis and Brandon Webb, Sizemore and Cliff Lee went in the third and fourth rounds to Montreal, the A's got Rich Harden in the 17th and the Rockies got Garrett Atkins in five and Brad Hawpe in 11. You get the idea. This table below, showing where last year's all-stars came from, further makes the point that non-drafted players are principally international signings.
<!-- INLINE TABLE (BEGIN) --><TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=220 border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=2>Where 2005 All-Stars
Were Drafted</TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>Non-drafted </TD><TD>20 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD>1st round </TD><TD>14 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>2nd round </TD><TD>6 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD>3rd round </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>4th round </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD>5th round </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>6th round </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD>8th round </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>9th round </TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD>10th round </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD>25th round </TD><TD>2 </TD></TR><TR style="FONT-SIZE: 11px; BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD colSpan=2>One each round as follows: 13, 17, 19, 20, 22, 23, 39, 62 </TD>
</TR></TBODY></TABLE><!-- INLINE TABLE (END) -->The ideal equation in development is to get two quality players each year out of the draft, two players internationally and perhaps use professional scouting to steal one player from another organization.