Australia threatened by stronger storm than Katrina

[SoCalBronco]

http://thestormtrack.com/archives/2006/04/category_5_moni.html

Monica again threatens Australia, now very strong Category 5
April 23, 2006 - 12:23 PM
This situation continue to deteriorate along the north coast of Australia. It is hard to imagine a worse situation in this area as Australian cyclones almost never reach this strength. Monica is currently much stronger than 1974's Cyclone Tracy which is the benchmark storm for the area. As far as I can tell, Monica may be the most intense cyclone to ever impact the region or even Australia. However, records are hard to find. After striking Queensland a few days ago, Monica has crossed Gulf of Carpentaria and is strafing the coast of the Northern Territory. All of this comes as part of a recent string of cyclone strikes across the country. The latest advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center lists Monica as a category 5 cyclone with sustained wind of 145 knots (167 mph) and a central pressure of 892 mb.

Monica is now over Australia's Wessel Islands, making Monica a far worse hurricane than anything seen in the Atlantic last summer. At 892 mb, Monica is stronger than the dreaded hurricanes Katrina and Rita ever were, never mind at landfall. The symmetry seen is Monica is flawless and it is rare to every see a tropical system look so well-defined.


View infrared satellite image


View visible satellite image

The latest advisory from the Darwin office of the Bureau of Meteorology lists the details below. Please note that their pressure seems erroneously high. However, they are indicating wind gusts up to 350 km/hr (218 mph)!


Details of SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE Monica at 10 pm CST:
. Centre located near...... 11.3 degrees South 136.7 degrees East
. Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
. Recent movement.......... towards the west at 12 km/h
. Wind gusts near centre... 350 kilometres per hour
. Intensity................ CATEGORY 5
. Central pressure......... 905 hectoPascals

REPEATING: A CYCLONE WARNING is current between CAPE SHIELD and POINT STUART, including NHULUNBUY, JABIRU and COBOURG PENINSULA. A CYCLONE WATCH extends southwest to PORT KEATS, including DARWIN and the TIWI ISLANDS.



View threat map

On the other side from the Bureau of Meteorology, satellite based intensity estimates rank Monica as being much stronger than advisories indicate.


----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 23 APR 2006 Time : 153300 UTC
Lat : 11:19:07 S Lon : 136:04:55 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.8 / 877.0mb/164.0kt (189 mph)

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +10.6mb
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23.1km



Monica is now impacting the Northern and will continue to ride along the coast. The Wessel Islands have already borne the brunt of the cyclone.


View track forecast

Monica is showing up well on the weather radar in the city of Gove. Heavy rains remain just along the shore shore and weakening is unlikely as the cyclone remains over warm water, and wind shear is low. No double eyewall is evident on the satellite imagery, but cocentric eyewalls are indicated on the Gove radar, raising the possibility of eyewall replacement cycles modulating Monica's intensity over the next couple of days.


View Gove weather radar

The models are very consistent with a track just along the northern coast turning inland near Darwin. Such a pass by a category 5 cyclone along the coast would be very devastating to the whole region. Darwin residents should be prepared for a strike on Tuesday.


View model track forecast

The American model ensemble forecasts are very consistent with the other models. This leaves little doubt to the destructive path that Monica is likely to take right over Darwin, the region's largest city.

View American ensemble forecast tracks

The models also indicate likely future intensification. With Monica already being an incredible category 5 cyclone, a bad situation is likely to get worse if that is possible.


View model intensity forecast

http://www.thestormtrack.com/images/20060423.1330.gms6.x.ir1km.23PMONICA.145kts-892mb-113S-

http://www.thestormtrack.com/images/20060423.0730.gms6.x.vis1km.23PMONICA.145kts-892mb-113S-1374E.100pc.small.jpg

[scorpio]

poor wallabies :(

[hades]

[Crocdile hunter] Crikies! [/Crocodile hunter]

[Bronco_Beerslug]

Looks pretty bad, making land fall right now.




http://image.weather.com/images/sat/aussiesat_720x486.jpg

[watermock]

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/image.php?u=1673&dateline=1145762460

Looks like they are in for a big blow.

[GreatBronco16]

http://www.orangemane.com/BB/image.php?u=1673&dateline=1145762460

Looks like they are in for a big blow.

Other than boob, only you would look at that pic and starting thinking about getting a blow.

[Rascal]

LOL...great took that as sexual.

Anyway, Aussies are in for a ride. Fortunately the area up there is not populated very much so the loss of life should be low.

[wabbit]

Monica huh??

Wouldn't imagine Bill Clinton will assisting in any relief efforts.

[Vegas_Bronco]

Monica huh??

Wouldn't imagine Bill Clinton will assisting in any relief efforts.

Wwwwwoooooow!!!! LOL LOL LOL

He'll be there with a whole damn cargo shipment of cigars.

[Bronco_Beerslug]

LOL...great took that as sexual.

Anyway, Aussies are in for a ride. Fortunately the area up there is not populated very much so the loss of life should be low.

'Perfect cyclone' bears down on Australian city
39 minutes ago

SYDNEY (AFP) - A hugely destructive cyclone described as a "perfect" storm bore down on the isolated northern Australian city of Darwin, devastated by a killer cyclone in 1974.

Packing winds of up to 350 kilometres (218 miles) an hour, Tropical Cyclone Monica was moving relentlessly towards Darwin as it turned towards the coast from the Arafura Sea, the government's weather bureau said.

"It's probably the best developed cyclone I have seen in many, many years," said David Alexander, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology.

"It's got a perfect circular eye, it's right at the top of a category five range, so it's a very, very severe cyclone."

Category five is the highest and most dangerous ranking for a tropical cyclone. The 1974 storm which killed 71 people and left 20,000 homeless in Darwin, Cyclone Tracy, was a category four storm.

Darwin, capital of Australia's sparsely populated Northern Territories, is now a rebuilt city of 100,000 people, with many new buildings designed to withstand severe storms.

Alexander said Monica was far more dangerous than Cyclone Larry, which smashed into Australia's eastern Queensland coast less than a month ago, causing more than a billion dollars in damage.

The cyclone could weaken after it made landfall but would remain a severe tropical cyclone by the time it reached Darwin Tuesday afternoon, said Darwin Cyclone Warning Centre spokesman Gordon Jackson.

It was "quite possibly" the most severe cyclone to ever hit Australia, Jackson said.

The "very destructive core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, with gusts to 350 kilometres per hour" was expected to approach the Darwin area on Tuesday, the weather bureau said.

Destructive winds with gusts of up to 160 kilometres an hour were already hitting the far north coast and dangerously high tides could cause extensive flooding, the cyclone warning centre reported.

As darkness fell, Monica was 355 kilometres east northeast of Darwin, and moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour, the centre said.
(CONTINUED)
http://tinyurl.com/ljjj4



http://us.news3.yimg.com/us.i2.yimg.com/p/afp/20060424/capt.sge.lon99.240406142429.photo00.photo.default-345x307.jpg?x=345&y=307&sig=pIpt_kcNAXREEfB1jbgB3g--

[Rock Chalk]

At least that's a relatively sparsely populated part of Australia. not sure which direction its going but the real danger is if it turns north to Asia. The entire Indo-China area is densely populated and the damage if it does turn, could be immense.

[Rascal]

'Perfect cyclone' bears down on Australian city
39 minutes ago

SYDNEY (AFP) - A hugely destructive cyclone described as a "perfect" storm bore down on the isolated northern Australian city of Darwin, devastated by a killer cyclone in 1974.

Packing winds of up to 350 kilometres (218 miles) an hour, Tropical Cyclone Monica was moving relentlessly towards Darwin as it turned towards the coast from the Arafura Sea, the government's weather bureau said.

"It's probably the best developed cyclone I have seen in many, many years," said David Alexander, a senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology.

"It's got a perfect circular eye, it's right at the top of a category five range, so it's a very, very severe cyclone."

Category five is the highest and most dangerous ranking for a tropical cyclone. The 1974 storm which killed 71 people and left 20,000 homeless in Darwin, Cyclone Tracy, was a category four storm.

Darwin, capital of Australia's sparsely populated Northern Territories, is now a rebuilt city of 100,000 people, with many new buildings designed to withstand severe storms.

Alexander said Monica was far more dangerous than Cyclone Larry, which smashed into Australia's eastern Queensland coast less than a month ago, causing more than a billion dollars in damage.

The cyclone could weaken after it made landfall but would remain a severe tropical cyclone by the time it reached Darwin Tuesday afternoon, said Darwin Cyclone Warning Centre spokesman Gordon Jackson.

It was "quite possibly" the most severe cyclone to ever hit Australia, Jackson said.

The "very destructive core of Severe Tropical Cyclone Monica, with gusts to 350 kilometres per hour" was expected to approach the Darwin area on Tuesday, the weather bureau said.

Destructive winds with gusts of up to 160 kilometres an hour were already hitting the far north coast and dangerously high tides could cause extensive flooding, the cyclone warning centre reported.

As darkness fell, Monica was 355 kilometres east northeast of Darwin, and moving west southwest at 14 kilometres per hour, the centre said.
(CONTINUED)
http://tinyurl.com/ljjj4



http://us.news3.yimg.com/us.i2.yimg.com/p/afp/20060424/capt.sge.lon99.240406142429.photo00.photo.default-345x307.jpg?x=345&y=307&sig=pIpt_kcNAXREEfB1jbgB3g--

Not sure why you quoted me, but whatever.

Even with Darwin being close to 100k residents it is still not a real populated area.

[Rock Chalk]

Not sure why you quoted me, but whatever.

Even with Darwin being close to 100k residents it is still not a real populated area.
There are MUCH worse places that storm could land at.

[Rascal]

There are MUCH worse places that storm could land at.

I agree. It's still going to be bad for those that live there obviously, but after living in Australia for 6 weeks I've developed a lot of respect for Aussies. They will be fine.