49ers rejected a Lelie trade...KFFL

[chaz]

Apparently, we are going to give 37 to GB for Walker this upcoming week.


where have you heard this socal? is it legit? or just a rumor...

[Drek]

We valued Portis more than we did Bailey given the fact that we had Smoot at the time and there was a good FA market for corners that year, Springs being the eventual replacement.

We compensated you what we thought would ensure that you'd send him to us as opposed to another team. Remember, Portis was not returning as a Bronco no matter what.
No, Bailey wasn't returning for various reasons, we had Portis on contract (for another two years if I recall) and he'd never even mentioned a hold out.

When we made the trade Bailey was considered a top 5 CB in the NFL, Portis a top 5 RB. Since the trade Bailey has pro bowled twice as well as set single season career highs for tackles and interceptions. Portis hasn't equaled his career bests in YPC, yardage, TDs, 20+ yard runs, etc..

At the time of the trade both players were expected to have the best parts of their careers ahead of them. I don't see Portis ever equalling his '02 and '03 seasons in Washington, while Bailey has already surpassed his 'skins career.

We got the better end of swapping Portis for Bailey, whatever Tatum Bell does is gravy.

[TheManeMan]

well said drek...

[Ballhawk]

If Skinfans are so happy with CP, then why come over here and try to justify the trade to yourself?

I am absoloutly thrilled with Champ and find no need whatsoever to post about it on a Skins board. I hope everyone in the Skins organization feel that they got a onesided deal and will send us more onesided deals :)

[Mediator12]

We valued Portis more than we did Bailey given the fact that we had Smoot at the time and there was a good FA market for corners that year, Springs being the eventual replacement.

We compensated you what we thought would ensure that you'd send him to us as opposed to another team. Remember, Portis was not returning as a Bronco no matter what.

And WAS overvalued him as well. They do not have Smoot who walked and Springs is no younger.

Portis was going to do his best Javon Walker "Rosenhaus attempt" at getting himself a new contract. How did that work out for Javon BTW? He is still trying to get traded and may end up in DEN now that he fired Rosenhaus ;D

No question that both teams got what they wanted, but Denver has made more from it than Washington in the last two years.

[Rascal]

I'm beginning to doubt that Lelie or Walker will get traded (at least before the draft anyway).

[Drek]

Ignoring the accuracy of Jake over Favre or Favre over Jake(which arguements are nigh impossible to truly make):

Walker: 130 catches in 218 attempts over the past 3(technically 2) years: good enough for 60%.

Lelie: 132 catches in 270 attempts over the past 3 years: awful enough for 48%.

If we wanna include DVOA:

Lelie has been 24.1% better than an AVERAGE reciever. Walker has been 40.1% better.


Yes, these measures are sketchy, but much better than "ashley is faster and I think he will be great with someone else at the helm"--which is so much speculation and inanity. Is the arguement really that hard to make though? A QB's completion percentage would work just fine if you ask me, since we're looking for some kind of relative difference.

Also, your math is a little off, thrown to v. caught % is more like 59.6% v. 49.25%, not a big difference, but the end result jobs Lelie by nearly 2% in comparison, relevant later in this post.

Favre completion percentages in '03 and '04: 65.4%, 64.1% (Walker's big year). Weighted average (completions/attempts) for two years: 64.69%

Plummer's completion percentages, '03-'05: 62.6%, 58.2%, 60.7%. Weighted average (completions/attempts) for three years: 60.01%

Kinda pokes a big hole in the thrown to v. caught arguement, as both are below what their QBs complete to the rest of their teams. Lelie's is more extreme, but the gap (10.35%) doesn't look nearly as bad when you consider that Lelie over his last three years here is 10.76% less reliable than Jake's average, while Walker is 5.09% below Favre's average from his two most recent full seasons. Thats a 5.67% difference in deviation, not nearly as big a percentage as the 12% gap so often misrepresented in this thread and on this board.

As for big man Javon being the kind of athlete who just makes plays, well, Lelie has a higher % of first downs per catch (70.8% v. 67.5%), posted a better YAC last year (5.0) than Javon's career high (4.3), and has a higher career YPC (17.9/15.6). Just to beat the stat horse a little further, Walker career fumbles/lost: 4/4, Lelie: 0/0.

Me personally, I only got one big complaint with Javon coming here, which is that he's a body catcher. Thats ok if Favre is throwing you lasers in the numbers, but Jake doesn't do that. We need a guy with hands, first a foremost, and its why Rod continues to be Jake's #1 option. Is Ash that guy? Clearly not, but I don't think Walker is any better, especially with the health and contract concerns.

Oh, and DVOA is a **** stat. This isn't baseball, the football outsiders need to give it up or significantly step up their data acquisition because they miss the forest (team effects) for the trees (individual player stats) in their player analysis. Looks like it has some good applications for team use though, so they shouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water, just stop trying to apply it to the unapplicable.

[TheManeMan]

I'm beginning to doubt that Lelie or Walker will get traded (at least before the draft anyway).

Yeah I dont believe that a trade is going to happen before the draft...if a trade for Walker is going to happen, I'd put my money on Draft Day...

[Ballhawk]

Is the arguement really that hard to make though? A QB's completion percentage would work just fine if you ask me, since we're looking for some kind of relative difference.
.

Very nice post Drek.

Let Ash come back work his ass off for a new contract and make WR a FA 1st priority next year. By then we will have a much clearer picture on Terrell and Watts ( I think Terrell is going to surprise people and lock down #2 spot).

[yavoon]

Is the arguement really that hard to make though? A QB's completion percentage would work just fine if you ask me, since we're looking for some kind of relative difference.

Also, your math is a little off, thrown to v. caught % is more like 59.6% v. 49.25%, not a big difference, but the end result jobs Lelie by nearly 2% in comparison, relevant later in this post.

Favre completion percentages in '03 and '04: 65.4%, 64.1% (Walker's big year). Weighted average (completions/attempts) for two years: 64.69%

Plummer's completion percentages, '03-'05: 62.6%, 58.2%, 60.7%. Weighted average (completions/attempts) for three years: 60.01%

Kinda pokes a big hole in the thrown to v. caught arguement, as both are below what their QBs complete to the rest of their teams. Lelie's is more extreme, but the gap (10.35%) doesn't look nearly as bad when you consider that Lelie over his last three years here is 10.76% less reliable than Jake's average, while Walker is 5.09% below Favre's average from his two most recent full seasons. Thats a 5.67% difference in deviation, not nearly as big a percentage as the 12% gap so often misrepresented in this thread and on this board.

As for big man Javon being the kind of athlete who just makes plays, well, Lelie has a higher % of first downs per catch (70.8% v. 67.5%), posted a better YAC last year (5.0) than Javon's career high (4.3), and has a higher career YPC (17.9/15.6). Just to beat the stat horse a little further, Walker career fumbles/lost: 4/4, Lelie: 0/0.

Me personally, I only got one big complaint with Javon coming here, which is that he's a body catcher. Thats ok if Favre is throwing you lasers in the numbers, but Jake doesn't do that. We need a guy with hands, first a foremost, and its why Rod continues to be Jake's #1 option. Is Ash that guy? Clearly not, but I don't think Walker is any better, especially with the health and contract concerns.

Oh, and DVOA is a **** stat. This isn't baseball, the football outsiders need to give it up or significantly step up their data acquisition because they miss the forest (team effects) for the trees (individual player stats) in their player analysis. Looks like it has some good applications for team use though, so they shouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water, just stop trying to apply it to the unapplicable.

dvoa beats the **** outta the stats u used.

[Drek]

dvoa beats the **** outta the stats u used. Why? I can explain why DVOA sucks, how is my analysis flawed? Its simple, sure, but for a quicky its fairly accurate. The Football Outsiders puts ton of work in DVOA and its still **** on a player to player level.

[yavoon]

Why? I can explain why DVOA sucks, how is my analysis flawed? Its simple, sure, but for a quicky its fairly accurate. The Football Outsiders puts ton of work in DVOA and its still **** on a player to player level.

if stats agreed with perception they would not tell us anything valuable. and I didnt say ur logic was flawed or horrible. just that u made an entire post using stats that do not even come close to taking into account the amount of things dvoa does. its like wading in the kiddy pool and yelling at michael phelps.

[Popps]

As for big man Javon being the kind of athlete who just makes plays, well, Lelie has a higher % of first downs per catch (70.8% v. 67.5%), posted a better YAC last year (5.0)

Waker had more TDs in one season than Lelie has had in his career. I think those are the kind of big plays people are talking about. Lelie led the league in YPC because that's what he does. He catches deep balls. Walker does it all.

YES, Lelie did make some catches over the middle last year. But, it's not his forte'. He's also not nearly as physical as Walker. Lelie gets jammed at the line a lot. He's also not nearly as good as walker when the ball is in the air.
People complained about Walker's "separation"... and yet he managed to put up monster stats. That tells you something about the guys hands, and his ability to make catches in traffic. He's the kind of QB that makes your QB look good, and with Jake having decent, but not phenomenal accuracy... it's better to have a big, long-armed, confident pass-snatcher out there then a track star.

[Pendejo]

No, Bailey wasn't returning for various reasons, we had Portis on contract (for another two years if I recall) and he'd never even mentioned a hold out.

When we made the trade Bailey was considered a top 5 CB in the NFL, Portis a top 5 RB. Since the trade Bailey has pro bowled twice as well as set single season career highs for tackles and interceptions. Portis hasn't equaled his career bests in YPC, yardage, TDs, 20+ yard runs, etc..

At the time of the trade both players were expected to have the best parts of their careers ahead of them. I don't see Portis ever equalling his '02 and '03 seasons in Washington, while Bailey has already surpassed his 'skins career.

We got the better end of swapping Portis for Bailey, whatever Tatum Bell does is gravy.

I've never understood why people are so fixated on who got the better end of the deal. It was a great trade for BOTH teams. They both got what they wanted. Looking at the situation and the results as a whole I'd say it was about as close to a perfectly fair trade as you can get.

[Lidderer]

1. Is the arguement really that hard to make though? A QB's completion percentage would work just fine if you ask me, since we're looking for some kind of relative difference.

2. Also, your math is a little off, thrown to v. caught % is more like 59.6% v. 49.25%, not a big difference, but the end result jobs Lelie by nearly 2% in comparison, relevant later in this post.

3. Oh, and DVOA is a **** stat. This isn't baseball, the football outsiders need to give it up or significantly step up their data acquisition because they miss the forest (team effects) for the trees (individual player stats) in their player analysis. Looks like it has some good applications for team use though, so they shouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water, just stop trying to apply it to the unapplicable.

1. You can't really judge accuracy by pure completion %; the types of throws are hugely important and the receivers factor in as well. Unless you wanna break out some distance numbers and factor in YAC(where dump-offs are dismissed), there are way too many holes in just stating %s.

2. My mistake, I was just taking the numbers off their website.

3. It's in the infant stages, sure, but it's way better than what us posters are putting forth in terms of evaluation.

[Drek]

Waker had more TDs in one season than Lelie has had in his career. TDs, like RBIs and runs scored in baseball, are entirely situational stats, which takes away most of their value as situational stats. Unless of course its a symbol of Walker being "clutch" something baseball statisticians, with a much larger database, have still yet to prove as any real factor in sporting contests.

I think those are the kind of big plays people are talking about. Lelie led the league in YPC because that's what he does. He catches deep balls. Walker does it all.

YES, Lelie did make some catches over the middle last year. But, it's not his forte'. He's also not nearly as physical as Walker. Lelie gets jammed at the line a lot. He's also not nearly as good as walker when the ball is in the air.
People complained about Walker's "separation"... and yet he managed to put up monster stats. That tells you something about the guys hands, and his ability to make catches in traffic. He's the kind of QB that makes your QB look good, and with Jake having decent, but not phenomenal accuracy... it's better to have a big, long-armed, confident pass-snatcher out there then a track star. Wait, wait, you were the one trumpetting Walker's YPC as "ridiculous" right? A sign of his great athletic talent. Lelie beats him significantly, and in many other stats too. Walker had one season of "monster stats" (marginally better than what teammate Donald Driver has put up three of the last four seasons). But hey, I guess I'm probably wrong and Walker was just busy making Favre look good right? Damn, all those MVP awards he won before Walker was even in the NFL must have confused me. My bad.

if stats agreed with perception they would not tell us anything valuable. and I didnt say ur logic was flawed or horrible. just that u made an entire post using stats that do not even come close to taking into account the amount of things dvoa does. its like wading in the kiddy pool and yelling at michael phelps. I wasn't aiming to have it compete with DVOA, no ****. It was a comparision of the percieved v. actual superior catch percentages between two players. Its highly situational, while DVOA tries to do the exact opposite (making a league wide grading tool).

Mine succeeds in that it, while not definitive, does show a noticable reason why WR A would have a significantly better completed v. thrown to ratio than WR B, which is simply that QB 1 is much more accurate than QB 2. It therefore shades and raw comparisions of WR's A and B by their numbers alone.

This is exactly what DVOA fails to take into account. On a player to player level they make no efforts to scale a WR's production to how bad his QB was, or vice versa. They don't adjust RB production by OL differences. Its great that its defensively weighted, but that only accounts for the opposing 11 guys. A statistical tool on the magnitude of what they're trying to attempt with DVOA requires consideration for all 22 players on the field, not just the one in question and his direct opposition.

I've more than waded "in the kiddy pool" when it comes to statistical analysis, its just stayed, by and large, in the realms of baseball and climate analysis. Football currently does not offer any acceptable data sets to work with at this time, so I don't waste my efforts. When it does I'll gladly boot up access, matlab, etc. and get cracking away.

[Drek]

1. You can't really judge accuracy by pure completion %; the types of throws are hugely important and the receivers factor in as well. Unless you wanna break out some distance numbers and factor in YAC(where dump-offs are dismissed), there are way too many holes in just stating %s.

2. My mistake, I was just taking the numbers off their website.

3. It's in the infant stages, sure, but it's way better than what us posters are putting forth in terms of evaluation.
See, I totally agree, on all points. Completion % is a weak tool, especially in this case were Jake didn't QB for 5 games in Lelie's worst thrown to v. caught season, 2003. However, even with those inaccuracies it reveals a clear difference in QB accuracy levels, something bore out by their respective careers, and supports an arguement that the gap between Walker and Lelie (as reliable targets) isn't as large as their thrown to v. caught ratios alone would suggest, that QB accuracies are playing some role in the situation, and does so in a direction that favors Lelie. Doesn't make him better than Walker, just "less bad in comparison to..". But obviously its far from a definitive answer.

That leads into the problem I have with DVOA. Its very good on a team level, and don't get me wrong, I applaud and encourage what the football outsiders are doing. But selling it as a very accurate measure of individual players is not feasable at this point, which I don't think they do, but others try to. I'm sure you weren't and I just jumped to an erronous conclusion. If so sorry for misrepresenting you. However, you mentioned a host of problems with completion percentage as a statistical tool. All of those and dozens, if not hundreds, more apply to DVOA on a player level. It'll improve as their data set grows and they expand what they take into consideration, but at this point its still weak, and will be so for a very long time.

Football stats aren't unlike climate analysis. As the old saying goes, a butterfly flaps his wings in South America, several weeks later a hurricane forms in the atlantic. While thats not totally accurate and football isn't on that level of magnitude, there are so many things effecting the outcome of each play, but that remain on the periphery throughout it, that statistically analyzing football, especially in a predictive way, is almost as hard. We (the U.S. and humanity as a whole) spend trillions of dollars on tools, both those to acquire data and those to filter it, for climate and weather analysis, and still we have a hard time accurately predicting weather just 48 hours in advance. Football stats as predictive tools won't be an easy nut to crack.

[yavoon]

I wasn't aiming to have it compete with DVOA, no ****. It was a comparision of the percieved v. actual superior catch percentages between two players. Its highly situational, while DVOA tries to do the exact opposite (making a league wide grading tool).

Mine succeeds in that it, while not definitive, does show a noticable reason why WR A would have a significantly better completed v. thrown to ratio than WR B, which is simply that QB 1 is much more accurate than QB 2. It therefore shades and raw comparisions of WR's A and B by their numbers alone.

This is exactly what DVOA fails to take into account. On a player to player level they make no efforts to scale a WR's production to how bad his QB was, or vice versa. They don't adjust RB production by OL differences. Its great that its defensively weighted, but that only accounts for the opposing 11 guys. A statistical tool on the magnitude of what they're trying to attempt with DVOA requires consideration for all 22 players on the field, not just the one in question and his direct opposition.

I've more than waded "in the kiddy pool" when it comes to statistical analysis, its just stayed, by and large, in the realms of baseball and climate analysis. Football currently does not offer any acceptable data sets to work with at this time, so I don't waste my efforts. When it does I'll gladly boot up access, matlab, etc. and get cracking away.

so u can run analysis with stats that take almost nothing into account and someone else couldn't do an analysis with dvoa which takes vastly more information into account? does that even enter the realm of sanity?

[Ballhawk]

I would be interested to see what the DVOA was for Mushin Muhammed in 2004 when he caught 93 for 1405 and 16 TDs vs his 64 750 and 4 tds for Chicago last year. Then try to explain how it is the player and not the team/QB/System.

[Popps]

I would be interested to see what the DVOA was for Mushin Muhammed in 2004 when he caught 93 for 1405 and 16 TDs vs his 64 750 and 4 tds for Chicago last year. Then try to explain how it is the player and not the team/QB/System.

It's obviously the player, and the system. No one in their right mind is going to disagree with that.

That said, there IS something to how much talent said player possesses, and how well said player FITS the system you're running. All I hear around this place is that it's everyone else's fault but Ashley's that he's not our#1 wide receiver. So, why the fuss over losing him?

A simple look at the contrasts between Walker and Lelie will tell you which one fits our system better... not to mention our QB. There's no question about it. That's not even debatable.

As for which is more talented, I'll take Walker every day and twice on Sunday, but that's just opinion.

But, why do you think it is that Shanahan isn't extending Lelie's contract and IS looking into trading for Walker. Think that might tell you something about who he thinks is more talented and fits the system better?

[Ballhawk]

But, why do you think it is that Shanahan isn't extending Lelie's contract and IS looking into trading for Walker. Think that might tell you something about who he thinks is more talented and fits the system better?

I have never thought Lelie fits our system, and yes I think Walker is a much better fit than Lelie. I also think Lelie is a talented WR that in the right system with the right type of QB could put up 1200-1400 yards and 10 TDs. In 2004 Lelie not only broke 1K but also got about 5 PI penalties called, one huge one in Jax game (kick the damn FG Shanny).

The problem I have with getting JW Popps is not the pick we would have to send but the contract we would have to pay. I do not even have a problem with the $$$ if we knew how well JW will recover. Does he still run a 4.4? can he cut and make the moves he use to. Really not going to know until 2007 how much he lost because of the injury. It only takes half a step to take a great WR and make him average because in the NFL all the players are great athletes.

If he would sign a contract similar to what CB signed last year and GB would take a conditional 2nd, then I am on board, I just do not see him doing it and I don't see Shanny taking the risk (see Gold).

[Popps]

But hey, I guess I'm probably wrong and Walker was just busy making Favre look good right? Damn, all those MVP awards he won before Walker was even in the NFL must have confused me. My bad.

Dude, that's some really ****ing stupid bull****. If you think I was bagging on Favre, or said that he's not talented, you need to have someone at home help you read the posts.

Honestly, that's one of the worst responses I've seen on this thread. At least read the posts.

[Popps]

I have never thought Lelie fits our system, and yes I think Walker is a much better fit than Lelie. I also think Lelie is a talented WR that in the right system with the right type of QB could put up 1200-1400 yards and 10 TDs.


Good, then we agree. Ship Lelie out of here and bring in a guy that fits our system.

When the dust clears, you and I can make a friendly little wager... if you're up for it. In fact, I'll call you blind.

Walker puts up better numbers than Lelie next year, no matter where either one of them plays, coming off of a knee injury, no less.

Up for it? Say.... $100 donation to the charity of the winner's choice?

[Ballhawk]

Good, then we agree. Ship Lelie out of here and bring in a guy that fits our system.

When the dust clears, you and I can make a friendly little wager... if you're up for it. In fact, I'll call you blind.

Walker puts up better numbers than Lelie next year, no matter where either one of them plays, coming off of a knee injury, no less.

Up for it? Say.... $100 donation to the charity of the winner's choice?

Deal

[yavoon]

I would be interested to see what the DVOA was for Mushin Muhammed in 2004 when he caught 93 for 1405 and 16 TDs vs his 64 750 and 4 tds for Chicago last year. Then try to explain how it is the player and not the team/QB/System.

directly from outsiders:
We cannot yet fully separate the performance of a receiver from the performance of his quarterback. Be aware that one will affect the other.
These statistics measure only passes thrown to a receiver, not performance on plays when he is not thrown the ball, such as blocking and drawing double teams.
"Points scored due to plays" is based on a larger model of how yards are translated into points, and is not a measurement strictly of touchdown passes.
All fumbles are considered equal, whether recovered by the offense or defense.

[Popps]

Deal

It's on. With Taco as our witness. Loser gives $100 to winner's charity of choice.... produces receipt to prove it.

Stipulations: Both players must play the same number of games.... if not, the bet will be based on game averages, on a total of 10 games minimum.
(i.e. if Lelie tears an ACL in the pre-season, I'm not going to hold you to it.. unless you just feel like a swell guy.)

We're talking yardage and TDs here. Each is worth 1/2. If they spilt, we both shoot 50 bones to said charity.

Doesn't matter which team either is playing for. Any other stipulations you can think of, let me know.

[Drek]

so u can run analysis with stats that take almost nothing into account and someone else couldn't do an analysis with dvoa which takes vastly more information into account? does that even enter the realm of sanity?
I find you in general to be rather arguementative, so I doubt you have any real interest in the difference, but for the sake of arguement, I'll explain.

I did a 1 on 1 comparison, deviation by each player compared to their team's norm. Its inaccurate, but it shows a clear direction of error when comparing the raw thrown to v. caught ratios of Walker and Lelie, in favor of Lelie. I'm not trying to assemble a grading method, rather just pointing out, statistically, the single most apparent error in thrown to v. caught ratios (QB ability). Its a refinement of one statistic in a very simple way, by referencing the larger data set it came from and determing how it correlates accordingly. What error is present in my comparison was already present in the raw data, but it makes a slight adjustment for the offense in question and the QB throwing these passes. Neither metric takes into account the actual situation of each pass, and that is the inherent error, unavoidable without making a new data set.

DVOA however attempts to take many such refined but far from perfect stats, combine them, and then begin grading. They take a statistic with error as great as raw thrown to v. caught data, combine it with a dozen other equally erronous statistics, and then use those end results to compile an "average player value" as well as a defensive adjustment that everything is then modified by further. The different errors magnify one another repeatedly. They do a good job at minimizing that, better than I'd do if I was to attempt such a feat, but its light years behind where baseball is and so it shouldn't be cited on par with VORP, RAA, RAR, etc.. Thats unavoidable though, due to differences in each sport.

If you don't get the difference I'm sorry, I don't think I can explain it any clearer without analogy, which I pretty much suck at and won't waste my time attempting.

[yavoon]

I find you in general to be rather arguementative, so I doubt you have any real interest in the difference, but for the sake of arguement, I'll explain.

I did a 1 on 1 comparison, deviation by each player compared to their team's norm. Its inaccurate, but it shows a clear direction of error when comparing the raw thrown to v. caught ratios of Walker and Lelie, in favor of Lelie. I'm not trying to assemble a grading method, rather just pointing out, statistically, the single most apparent error in thrown to v. caught ratios (QB ability). Its a refinement of one statistic in a very simple way, by referencing the larger data set it came from and determing how it correlates accordingly. What error is present in my comparison was already present in the raw data, but it makes a slight adjustment for the offense in question and the QB throwing these passes. Neither metric takes into account the actual situation of each pass, and that is the inherent error, unavoidable without making a new data set.

DVOA however attempts to take many such refined but far from perfect stats, combine them, and then begin grading. They take a statistic with error as great as raw thrown to v. caught data, combine it with a dozen other equally erronous statistics, and then use those end results to compile an "average player value" as well as a defensive adjustment that everything is then modified by further. The different errors magnify one another repeatedly. They do a good job at minimizing that, better than I'd do if I was to attempt such a feat, but its light years behind where baseball is and so it shouldn't be cited on par with VORP, RAA, RAR, etc.. Thats unavoidable though, due to differences in each sport.

If you don't get the difference I'm sorry, I don't think I can explain it any clearer without analogy, which I pretty much suck at and won't waste my time attempting.

I think ur problem is u think dvoa is being used as a magic stat wherein the answer is the number where u feel u can play w/ ur inferior stats.

I'll solve ur problem, dvoa is not a magic stat. it requires interpretation just like every other statistic ever invented or used by man.

it also though happens to be superior to stats that take vastly less information into account.

[Ballhawk]

It's on. With Taco as our witness. Loser gives $100 to winner's charity of choice.... produces receipt to prove it.

Stipulations: Both players must play the same number of games.... if not, the bet will be based on game averages, on a total of 10 games minimum.
(i.e. if Lelie tears an ACL in the pre-season, I'm not going to hold you to it.. unless you just feel like a swell guy.)

We're talking yardage and TDs here. Each is worth 1/2. If they spilt, we both shoot 50 bones to said charity.

Doesn't matter which team either is playing for. Any other stipulations you can think of, let me know.

Sounds fine and if we do get Walker there will be two people rooting for me to lose :)

[Popps]

Sounds fine and if we do get Walker there will be two people rooting for me to lose :)

More like 2000... from this forum alone. ;D

Just thought of a funny possibility... they both end up on the same team. That would be interesting.

Hey, I'll take them both as Broncos.

[Drek]

Dude, that's some really ****ing stupid bull****. If you think I was bagging on Favre, or said that he's not talented, you need to have someone at home help you read the posts.

Honestly, that's one of the worst responses I've seen on this thread. At least read the posts.

You said, and I quote:
He's the kind of WR (assuming you meant WR here, not QB) that makes your QB look good, and with Jake having decent, but not phenomenal accuracy... it's better to have a big, long-armed, confident pass-snatcher out there then a track star.
Favre is the only QB Walker has played with at the NFL level. You claim he makes QBs look good. So does he make QBs look good, and in turn has made life easy on Favre, or vice versa? Favre's stack of MVP awards makes me lean towards the later. Sorry if the response offends you so greatly, but if you really need to homer on about Walker I'll continue to argue counterpoints. Walker has a rep as a body catcher (Scouts Inc. even includes it in his profile) and he's spent his entire (short) NFL career on a team with one of the all time great throwing QBs in NFL history, a guy who puts the ball in the breadbasket consistantly within 30 yards. I've seen what Jake does with guys who can't catch the ball outside of their body, its not pretty. Ask Jeb Putzier how he made "Jacked Up" more times than any player in the league last year, he knows all about it.

[Drek]

I think ur problem is u think dvoa is being used as a magic stat wherein the answer is the number where u feel u can play w/ ur inferior stats.

I'll solve ur problem, dvoa is not a magic stat. it requires interpretation just like every other statistic ever invented or used by man.

it also though happens to be superior to stats that take vastly less information into account.
I think you're mistaking the origins of my criticism. I've checked the metric out as much as the football outsiders reveal on their site. The basis for it is much less accurate on a player level than baseball's similar stats, yet people play it off on sports message boards as being comprable. As I said in an earlier post with Lidderer, it has a good foundation to build on, if they can ever find a way to gather all the data needed to take it several steps further. I'm not sure if thats really feasable, but regardless, where it stands now it doesn't have much use regardless of interpretation, outside of supporting already obvious observations, like that Javon Walker was damn good in '04. The source data is just too circumstantial. Hell, baseball's is pretty arguable and it has many less uncontrolable factors in play along with a much larger historical database to work from.

Is it superior to things like QB rating? Yes it is. But thats a really bad stat, just because its better than something really bad doesn't automatically make it good.

[yavoon]

I think you're mistaking the origins of my criticism. I've checked the metric out as much as the football outsiders reveal on their site. The basis for it is much less accurate on a player level than baseball's similar stats, yet people play it off on sports message boards as being comprable. As I said in an earlier post with Lidderer, it has a good foundation to build on, if they can ever find a way to gather all the data needed to take it several steps further. I'm not sure if thats really feasable, but regardless, where it stands now it doesn't have much use regardless of interpretation, outside of supporting already obvious observations, like that Javon Walker was damn good in '04. The source data is just too circumstantial. Hell, baseball's is pretty arguable and it has many less uncontrolable factors in play along with a much larger historical database to work from.

Is it superior to things like QB rating? Yes it is. But thats a really bad stat, just because its better than something really bad doesn't automatically make it good.

my problem with ur post is ur using inferior stats to make a point then dissing a superior statistic. its nonsensicle to me. if u think dvoa is bad then all the stats u used are beyond bad to god awful useless pieces of trash.

I mean I guess i could see if ur a guy who hates stats in general. but the dichotomy of using crappier stats while deriding superior ones is too odd.

and outsiders has lots of good uses IMO it regularly is able to hit on a lot midseason turnarounds and midseason swoons of teams. u should checkup the articles on it. its not 100% but it hits pretty damn well. certainly vastly better than some other stat could.

I think it has also identified several players who perform well in their positions and aren't given credit for so as well as pointing out a lot of players who are vastly overhyped in comparison to their real performance.

[12th man]

It's on. With Taco as our witness. Loser gives $100 to winner's charity of choice.... produces receipt to prove it.

Stipulations: Both players must play the same number of games.... if not, the bet will be based on game averages, on a total of 10 games minimum.
(i.e. if Lelie tears an ACL in the pre-season, I'm not going to hold you to it.. unless you just feel like a swell guy.)

We're talking yardage and TDs here. Each is worth 1/2. If they spilt, we both shoot 50 bones to said charity.

Doesn't matter which team either is playing for. Any other stipulations you can think of, let me know.
sorry for butting in, but I have a question. what if Lelei stays here? I mean Walker will be a number one wr, and getting more balls thrown his way, and Lelie will still be the number two guy and less balls thrown his way. or what if he is a number two guy somwhere else?

But either way, if Lelie stay here, I think this is going to be a close bet, and I wouldnt' be suprised if Lelie is better than walker in stats. some things you have to think about. Lelie will be in a contract year, and that means he is going to play his ass off, and realy try to make plays and do things to the best of his abilites to get the best offer from us or another team the following season. Also he is a year older/wiser in our system. Plus with Heimerdinger here, Lelie can be a very good wr, from what he learns from Dinger. Everywhere Heimerdinger has gone, he has done great things for teams passing games and WR's. He's done it here, tennesse, the jets, and he'll do it here again. So I think this is going to be a close bet.

[Drek]

my problem with ur post is ur using inferior stats to make a point then dissing a superior statistic. its nonsensicle to me. if u think dvoa is bad then all the stats u used are beyond bad to god awful useless pieces of trash.

I mean I guess i could see if ur a guy who hates stats in general. but the dichotomy of using crappier stats while deriding superior ones is too odd.

and outsiders has lots of good uses IMO it regularly is able to hit on a lot midseason turnarounds and midseason swoons of teams. u should checkup the articles on it. its not 100% but it hits pretty damn well. certainly vastly better than some other stat could.

I think it has also identified several players who perform well in their positions and aren't given credit for so as well as pointing out a lot of players who are vastly overhyped in comparison to their real performance.

K, nevermind, you've just thoroughly backed up that you don't know **** about statistics from a mathematical sense, instead you just bandwagon onto whatever you read from a site. Thanks, for a bit there I thought you might actually have had a worthwhile point.

[Popps]

You said, and I quote:

Favre is the only QB Walker has played with at the NFL level. You claim he makes QBs look good. So does he make QBs look good, and in turn has made life easy on Favre, or vice versa?

Yea, well... John Elway was good, so Rod Smith must have no skill. I mean, it's got to be one of the other, right?

Get a reasonable argument put together and get back to me.

[broncohaven]

You can take all those stats and eat them. There isn't much debating who's the better receiver, and it isn't close. The only ? is whether Walker's knee will get back to 100%

[Merlin]

Yavoon,

You often talk about the greatness of FO, and the quality of their stats, but it is ironic that like many of the people you criticize, the stats only seem to be of value when they support your view. Quite often I have seen you post about the mediocrity of Jake, and how he is the same QB he was when he came in from Arizona. Well, according to FO, the Jake from Arizona is totally different from the Jake that played the first yr in Denver, thus highlighting the extreme limitations of their stats to gauge a player. Moreover, their stats have not shown Jake to be the same player each yr in Denver, and in fact Jake rates as a top 6 in their ratings, yet you never speak highly of him. The joys of hypocrisy and using stats to advance an ideological perspective.

[chaz]

who gives a damn about stats, walker gets into the endzone, more td's in one season that lelie's entire career....we need a playmaker to catch the god damn ball and put points on the board and he could be the answer, so quit getting so pissy over some stats...

[yavoon]

K, nevermind, you've just thoroughly backed up that you don't know **** about statistics from a mathematical sense, instead you just bandwagon onto whatever you read from a site. Thanks, for a bit there I thought you might actually have had a worthwhile point.

the point all along has been the same, u deride dvoa for problems that exist to a MUCH LARGER degree in the statistics u use. its nonsensical. and wtf I read this on a site? please show me which site I read it? thats a stupid ****ing attempt at sounding important.

[Popps]

the mediocrity of Jake, and how he is the same QB he was when he came in from Arizona.

Wow. Even Taco knows that's not true, and he'd have a hard time picking out a football in a line-up.

[yavoon]

Yavoon,

You often talk about the greatness of FO, and the quality of their stats, but it is ironic that like many of the people you criticize, the stats only seem to be of value when they support your view. Quite often I have seen you post about the mediocrity of Jake, and how he is the same QB he was when he came in from Arizona. Well, according to FO, the Jake from Arizona is totally different from the Jake that played the first yr in Denver, thus highlighting the extreme limitations of their stats to gauge a player. Moreover, their stats have not shown Jake to be the same player each yr in Denver, and in fact Jake rates as a top 6 in their ratings, yet you never speak highly of him. The joys of hypocrisy and using stats to advance an ideological perspective.

actually my contention is that jake has been the same every year in denver. and I'm not a lemming for FO merlin, I just think they are going in the right direction. for the thousandth time, all statistics require interpretation.

but for fun lets use FO and see how it holds my point. jake rated 8th in dpar in 2003 and 6th in dpar in 2005. the two most similar years of jake's denver tenure otherwise and again similar in dpar. BUT WAIT jake didnt play all his games in 2003, he only played 11. so lets use DVOA the metric that is value over average. there he is 5th in 2005 and 6th in 2003. WELL HOLY **** THATS SIMILAR. well hell maybe qbs just sucked one of those years lets use pure dvoa %. 24.4% in 2003 and 30.2% in 2005. still pretty damn close...

so now lets look at the year that isnt nearly identical, 2004. the year jake the same talent of qb was asked to do things a little beyond his means. he finished 10th in dpar, 12th in dvoa with an 11.2% rank. and like I said on the previous thread he was asked to throw more and it hurt his overall stats. so he dropped some.

so in conclusion what does FO think about jake plummer? almost the exact same qb talentwise, check against reality? yup one would suspect an 8 year veteran to not change much. infact the stats are SO SIMILAR that it borders on SPOOKY.

also in the future when u add in the joys of hypocrisy atleast have looked up what is on FO first. I mean seriously, cuz then I dont have to add some senseless flame on the end just because u never went to the website. I mean in this case it was bad either way because of the implication that I am a lemming for FO. but still, it would be nice.

[fdf]

Sassy,

You probably know this, but you can turn off Avtars in Options. Kind of a bummer that this is the only option... but that's what I had to do. I check into the forum at work sometimes, and I realized one day that it would easily look like I was at a porn site. Plus, even at home... I've got an 11 year old son that I'd rather not expose to some chick spreading her ass just quite yet.


Anyway, just a heads up.

I have tried to find where to do this in User CP. What's the magic trick? This forum's great; but I hate having my son (6 years old) come into my office and see the avatars on this forum. He has asked some pointed and embarassing questions about them. Why is she . . . ?

[yavoon]

Wow. Even Taco knows that's not true, and he'd have a hard time picking out a football in a line-up.

never said that, though u could make that case if u WANTED to. I wouldn't bother because the case I make, that jake has been the same qb every year in denver is just so much easier. to make the extra case u would have to try to argue that going from a perennial loser where he was forced to carry the team more to a winner where he wasn't caused a jump in his efficiency blah blah...

but I'm not making that.

[Macnut]

who gives a damn about stats, walker gets into the endzone, more td's in one season that lelie's entire career....we need a playmaker to catch the god damn ball and put points on the board and he could be the answer, so quit getting so pissy over some stats...
Well you'd better get a better QB if you want that to happen. Plummer is a joke and so are some posters here. Get a frickin clue!

[Popps]

I have tried to find where to do this in User CP. What's the magic trick? This forum's great; but I hate having my son (6 years old) come into my office and see the avatars on this forum. He has asked some pointed and embarassing questions about them. Why is she . . . ?

Go under user CP, then Options. You can choose to view (or not view) Avtars.

I agree... too bad about the avtar situation. Didn't used to be like that. But, I think there are a lot of kids that feel like porn in their avtars proves something, and the powers that be aren't likely to crack down on anything like that for fear of a traffic drop.

[GreatWhiteBronco]

the big difference is Walker is a redzone receiver and Lelie isn't... i can't help but to think this would help in one area that i think is pretty important... redzone offense.

as for the Favre thing, i think it probably speaks volumes that Favre, in all his years, publicly criticizes only Walker for holding out. it's probably because he's a damn good receiver and he gives the Packers a better chance of winning! i don't care how good your QB is, you still need good receivers, even Brett Favre knows that! just remember the receivers he had when he was winning those MVPS.

[BroncoInferno]

You said, and I quote:

Favre is the only QB Walker has played with at the NFL level. You claim he makes QBs look good. So does he make QBs look good, and in turn has made life easy on Favre, or vice versa? Favre's stack of MVP awards makes me lean towards the later. Sorry if the response offends you so greatly, but if you really need to homer on about Walker I'll continue to argue counterpoints. Walker has a rep as a body catcher (Scouts Inc. even includes it in his profile) and he's spent his entire (short) NFL career on a team with one of the all time great throwing QBs in NFL history, a guy who puts the ball in the breadbasket consistantly within 30 yards. I've seen what Jake does with guys who can't catch the ball outside of their body, its not pretty. Ask Jeb Putzier how he made "Jacked Up" more times than any player in the league last year, he knows all about it.

If we were talking about the Favre of '96 I would agree, but Favre has not been an elite QB since Holmgren left GB, and the last 3 or 4 years in particular he has been wildly erratic and at times just plain bad. I would not say that the Brett Favre who Walker posted big numbers with in '04 is much better than the guy he'd be playing with in Denver.

[SkinRamon]

No, Bailey wasn't returning for various reasons, we had Portis on contract (for another two years if I recall) and he'd never even mentioned a hold out. His demands for a contract would've been a distraction entering his 3rd year. Even after his rookie year there were contract rumblings that made little waves here (http://www.orangemane.com/BB/archive/index.php/t-3825.html).
When we made the trade Bailey was considered a top 5 CB in the NFL, Portis a top 5 RB. Since the trade Bailey has pro bowled twice as well as set single season career highs for tackles and interceptions. Portis hasn't equaled his career bests in YPC, yardage, TDs, 20+ yard runs, etc.. The first year in D.C. was a rebuilding year. Everyone knew that. Our o-line was unsettled. Gibbs' admitted himself that he struggled to get adjusted to the speed of the game as a play-caller. So of course Portis' numbers suffered. This year was a different story, and Portis carried this team to the playoffs this year with the improvements we made.
At the time of the trade both players were expected to have the best parts of their careers ahead of them. I don't see Portis ever equalling his '02 and '03 seasons in Washington, while Bailey has already surpassed his 'skins career. Well dude, he did play against some whack-ass defenses in KC, Oakland, and a really crappy Chargers team at the time...
We got the better end of swapping Portis for Bailey, whatever Tatum Bell does is gravy. Time will tell my good man. Good luck this weekend in the draft. 8')

[Merlin]

actually my contention is that jake has been the same every year in denver... so lets use DVOA the metric that is value over average. there he is 5th in 2005 and 6th in 2003. WELL HOLY **** THATS SIMILAR. well hell maybe qbs just sucked one of those years lets use pure dvoa %. 24.4% in 2003 and 30.2% in 2005. still pretty damn close...so now lets look at the year that isnt nearly identical, 2004. the year jake the same talent of qb was asked to do things a little beyond his means. he finished 10th in dpar, 12th in dvoa with an 11.2% rank...so in conclusion what does FO think about jake plummer? almost the exact same qb talentwise, check against reality? yup one would suspect an 8 year veteran to not change much. infact the stats are SO SIMILAR that it borders on SPOOKY...also in the future when u add in the joys of hypocrisy atleast have looked up what is on FO first.
It is amazing, your post validates my claims, and you still have the nerve to suggest otherwise and shoot a salvo at the end as if that will affirm your statement. I stated that FOs stats were problematic because they could not be used to clearly judge a player. Further, I stated that their stats did not support your claim about Plummer. Lastly, I claimed you pick and choose stats to your convenience indicating a level of hypocrisy in your statements.

Lets see.

1. 2002 (Ariz) DPAR -19.7 (funny how you ignored stating this stat), DVOA -21.3% (Yeap, that is one pathetic QB, which explains why he rates 45 in the league)

2. 2003 (Denver) DPAR 49.6 (HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE, A QB CANNOT CHANGE HIS STRIPES AFTER 5 YRS) (btw, top 8 in the NFL), DVOA 24.4 % (again, a transformation, I wonder why?)

3. 2004 DPAR 56.4 (small but significant change, 6 points can move you 4 PLACES down the rankings), DVOA 11.5% (a fairly large drop, so much for no change)

4. 2005 DPAR 88 (no wonder you ignored the data, dramatic change); DVOA 30.2% (again, a very significant change from the prior yr.) (btw, the difference between 03 and 05 is larger than the difference between Plummer and the second best in the league this yr).

So you totally ignore the fact that the stats clearly indicate that FOs numbers for QBs cannot account at all for team and coaching. The dramatic difference between Ariz and Denver is HUGE, and you knew it and chose to ignore. Regarding the Denver yrs, you purposely chose not to state the DPAR numbers because they clearly indicate your position is wrong. Moreover, you try to minimize the DVOA differences even though they affect QB rankings by 4 positions. As I said, you cherry pick stats for personal bias, and then you hypocritically criticize others when they use stats to argue their points. Your arrogance aside (to assume nobody could catch your simple debating tactics), what is troubling is your use of FOs. Any person that lauds the value of FOs and stats should at least have the intellectual integrity to attempt to express them in an unbiased fashion, and not as a means of obfuscation and misdirection to advance a personal agenda.

[Ballhawk]

Not often a thread gets double Hijacked

[Merlin]

Not often a thread gets double Hijacked
Well, you didn't expetct a thread about the 49's rejecting Lelie would last 13 pgs all by itself did you? :D

[yavoon]

It is amazing, your post validates my claims, and you still have the nerve to suggest otherwise and shoot a salvo at the end as if that will affirm your statement. I stated that FOs stats were problematic because they could not be used to clearly judge a player. Further, I stated that their stats did not support your claim about Plummer. Lastly, I claimed you pick and choose stats to your convenience indicating a level of hypocrisy in your statements.

Lets see.

1. 2002 (Ariz) DPAR -19.7 (funny how you ignored stating this stat), DVOA -21.3% (Yeap, that is one pathetic QB, which explains why he rates 45 in the league)

2. 2003 (Denver) DPAR 49.6 (HOW IS THAT POSSIBLE, A QB CANNOT CHANGE HIS STRIPES AFTER 5 YRS) (btw, top 8 in the NFL), DVOA 24.4 % (again, a transformation, I wonder why?)

3. 2004 DPAR 56.4 (small but significant change, 6 points can move you 4 PLACES down the rankings), DVOA 11.5% (a fairly large drop, so much for no change)

4. 2005 DPAR 88 (no wonder you ignored the data, dramatic change); DVOA 30.2% (again, a very significant change from the prior yr.) (btw, the difference between 03 and 05 is larger than the difference between Plummer and the second best in the league this yr).

So you totally ignore the fact that the stats clearly indicate that FOs numbers for QBs cannot account at all for team and coaching. The dramatic difference between Ariz and Denver is HUGE, and you knew it and chose to ignore. Regarding the Denver yrs, you purposely chose not to state the DPAR numbers because they clearly indicate your position is wrong. Moreover, you try to minimize the DVOA differences even though they affect QB rankings by 4 positions. As I said, you cherry pick stats for personal bias, and then you hypocritically criticize others when they use stats to argue their points. Your arrogance aside (to assume nobody could catch your simple debating tactics), what is troubling is your use of FOs. Any person that lauds the value of FOs and stats should at least have the intellectual integrity to attempt to express them in an unbiased fashion, and not as a means of obfuscation and misdirection to advance a personal agenda.

how can u possibly read my post and still bring up arizona dpar? how? explain it to me in detail please.

I also explained every single difference in dpar. u dont contend w/ my explanations only treat them like they dont exist. wtf is that?

to my eyes FO says jake is the exact same qb every year in denver. he is almost identical in dvoa rank in 2003 and 2005. the only year that isnt ridiculously similar is 2004 and thats the same jake plummer just asked to throw the ball more so he became less efficient. thats all. as for cherry picking stats, I used the exact same stats u did(besides ur stupidity in continuing to use arizona's stats).

you obviously thought FO didnt agree w/ me. when u found out they nearly identically agree w/ me u throw this hissy fit. typical.

I might have to start putting things in caps to make sure u read them.

[Merlin]

how can u possibly read my post and still bring up arizona dpar? how? explain it to me in detail please.
Sorry, I didn't realize you were that slow. You argued that FOs that could be used to clearly evaluate a players talent. With a simple comparison from one yr to another with one player I showed you how dramatically different he can perform according to their measures. Thus the conclusion that FO metrics cannot be used to clearly understand the performance of an individual football player, especially at QB.

I also explained every single difference in dpar. u dont contend w/ my explanations only treat them like they dont exist. wtf is that?
No you did not. You merely stated where he placed there without providing the measurements that clearly showed his performance had changed, which was critical to your assessment.

to my eyes FO says jake is the exact same qb every year in denver. he is almost identical in dvoa rank in 2003 and 2005.
No they don't, if you are using metrics, which is the whole point of statistical analysis. But I guess your strategy is to use statistical data only when it applies to your assumptions, at least you are consistent at that level.

PS, why is it so difficult for you to write properly? Do you honestly think that carries some cool factor that translates well into a BB?

[Lidderer]

PS, why is it so difficult for you to write properly? Do you honestly think that carries some cool factor that translates well into a BB?


Jsut as lnog as the wterir laeevs the frist and lsat lteter in the rhgit palce for ecah wrod the manenig wlil sitll cmoe arocrs; tihs deonst epxialn why yoavon witres 'ppl' tohguh.

[Tredici]

Jsut as lnog as the wterir laeevs the frist and lsat lteter in the rhgit palce for ecah wrod the manenig wlil sitll cmoe arocrs; tihs deonst epxialn why yoavon witres 'ppl' tohguh.

That stuff always amazes me. Go brains Go.

[yavoon]

Sorry, I didn't realize you were that slow. You argued that FOs that could be used to clearly evaluate a players talent. With a simple comparison from one yr to another with one player I showed you how dramatically different he can perform according to their measures. Thus the conclusion that FO metrics cannot be used to clearly understand the performance of an individual football player, especially at QB.


No you did not. You merely stated where he placed there without providing the measurements that clearly showed his performance had changed, which was critical to your assessment.


No they don't, if you are using metrics, which is the whole point of statistical analysis. But I guess your strategy is to use statistical data only when it applies to your assumptions, at least you are consistent at that level.

PS, why is it so difficult for you to write properly? Do you honestly think that carries some cool factor that translates well into a BB?

just reread my case for jake plummer being the same qb using normal stats or FO's metrics. both agree w/ me and all fluctuations are accounted for in my analysis. I really am tired of typing it.

if u have any questions on specific fluctuations and not mere grandstanding and posturing then ask those.

[yavoon]

Jsut as lnog as the wterir laeevs the frist and lsat lteter in the rhgit palce for ecah wrod the manenig wlil sitll cmoe arocrs; tihs deonst epxialn why yoavon witres 'ppl' tohguh.

all abbreviations, and yah I saw that study too interesting stuff.

[Natedogg]

I've always been a bit skeptical of Bell once I saw how his helmet fit him.

I've recalled this post more than a few times since 2005. Dead on TJ.