Three-for-one tradedowns

[BowlenBall]

Seems to me that fans (as well as coaches and general managers) often get obsessed over players in the first round, when there's much better value to be had by trading down for multiple picks. Here are three very plausible examples using three different trading partners in this year's draft at three different areas of need:

Defensive Lineman (trading with the Texans)
Pick # 15 (1050 points) - Tamba Hali
or trade down for
Pick # 33 (580 points) - Rodrique Wright
Pick # 65 (265 points) - Darryl Tapp
Pick # 98 (108 points) - Chris Gocong
Summary: Broncos trade their #1 (1050 points) for the Texans #2, #3, and #4 (953 points). Instead of one undersized DE, they get one big run-stuffing DT and two undersized DEs.

Wide Receivers (trading with the Vikings)
Pick # 15 (1050 points) - Chad Jackson
or trade down for
Pick # 48 (420 points) - Derek Hagan
Pick # 51 (390 points) - Maurice Stovall
Pick # 83 (175 points) - Mike Haas
Summary: Broncos trade their #1 (1050 points) for the Vikings #2a, #2b, and #3 (985 points). Instead of one receiver with questions marks, they pick up three receivers with question marks. Guaranteed, one of these guys will outperform Chad Jackson in the pros, if not all three.

Running Backs (trading with the Bills)
Pick # 15 (1050 points) - DeAngelo Williams
or trade down for
Pick # 42 (480 points) - Joseph Addai
Pick # 70 (240 points) - Brian Calhoun
Pick # 73 (225 points) - Maurice Drew
Summary: Broncos trade their #1 (1050 points) for the Bills #2, #3a, and #3b (945 points). Instead of one stud back (I'm a huge Williams fan, by the way), they pick of three backs with upside. One of them will inevitably be almost as productive as Williams in the Broncos system, the depth at tailback will be vastly improved, and the salaries of all three combined will be cheaper than the salary for the #15 pick

Now, obviously, if the Bronos trade down, they won't be selecting three players from the same position. So, let's take one more look at this, projecting possible sliders at any position:

Sliders (trading with the Vikings)
Pick #15 (1050 points) - Broderick Bunkley somehow falls to us.
or trade the pick for
Pick #48 (420 points) - Marcedes Lewis - TE depth causes a slide
Pick # 51 (390 points) - Claude Wroten - 1st round talent with character concerns
Pick # 83 (175 points) - Darryn Colledge - OT only fits in a few zone-blocking schemes
Summary: Claude Wroten may just be as good a player as Broderick Bunkley. In addition, we'll be taking the John Mackey award winner from last year and a very intriguing left tackle prospect who looks to be a good fit in our system.

I can't see a single reason to not trade down, other than whining fans....

[ludo21]

nice first post!

Welcome!

I could definitely go for that!

and after the top 10, i agree, trading down is where the best value in THIS draft is!

[Ballhawk]

Ya but we are already starting to get teams anouncing that they are looking to trade down. Not to many will trade out of the 1st round.

I will be estatic if we came out of this draft with 1 great starter, 2 good ones and 2 decent backups.

That gives Shanny 5 picks to blow on his kneejerk picks.

[SoCalBronco]

Wow....excellent post ExPatFan...I completely agree re: trading down, especially in this deep draft with all our needs.

Welcome to the Mane, friend. :)

[NFLBRONCO]

Sign me up for 15 for 48 51 83

[SoCalBronco]

One problem, which has been mentioned before, by Ballhawk I believe is that since everyone knows this is a good draft, more people are trying to move down and accumulate more picks, than those trying to move up. Its somewhat reflected in the recent DEN-SF trade, as the team moving up did not get raped in the way that generally happens on draft day for example.

[Killericon]

Amen to that.

I've never been for keeping both the #15 and our former #22.....I was alway for either trading down for more picks, or trading up to get VD.

[Ballhawk]

One problem, which has been mentioned before, by Ballhawk I believe is that since everyone knows this is a good draft, more people are trying to move down and accumulate more picks, than those trying to move up. Its somewhat reflected in the recent DEN-SF trade, as the team moving up did not get raped in the way that generally happens on draft day for example.
It is going to get crazy after pick 20. As just about every team not wanting a CB, RB or LB (3-4 more so) will be putting out feelers to trade down. I have a feeling this draft may set a record for most 1st round trades as teams are really going to try and maximize value.

Draft is just that deep, hell there are 4 4th rounders I am targeting and I never target past the third round :)

[NFLBRONCO]

Was driving home this afternoon and they had Tim/Tom/Todd? McShay from Scouts Inc.

1) It was his contention first that Denver is the only team in the top 15 seriously considering taking a WR. Big News

2) Denver is targeting Santonio Holmes NOT Chad Jackson, as they prefer Santonio Holmes over Chad Jackson because the team feels that Santonio Holmes better fits their system.

3) Denver, however, DOESN'T want to take him at pick 15 but would like to move down from the 15th pick as well to take Santonio Holmes.

The last two bits being new news for us... see it wasn't all repeat news

Interesting though.... I wouldn't move back for anything less than a 4th, hopefully a late 3rd nor less than a couple spots... I don't really see it as plausible though that we could move back... supposedly Miami would like a WR, KC is a possibility as is SD and NE all are in the next 5-6 picks after us. Perhaps we aren't totally enamored with EITHER WR and are looking to move back and draft a RB or maybe we are staying put, but I don't see how we can move back to take Holmes or CJ... Maybe Shanahan who has been known to like some smaller WRs in the past does like Moss and would move back for him... I don't know... I find the news though that we are targeting Holmes comforting as most everyone paid to do this for a living has Holmes ahead of Jackson. Though, in all fairness he made mention of the very thing about Holmes, he is probably a really good #2 WR not a #1, and everyone is already complaining about the #2WR we have that outperforms alot of #2 WRs in this league. Also, the only real flaw is lack of size (with the new rules hasn't been as big a deal) and if he isn't involved in the offense more he gets frustrated, not TO frustrated but can act out... well it took Lelie 4 years to act out after hardly ever being highly involved in the gameplan if someone is already predisposed to it, it is fair to worry Holmes would or could have issues as well... still, overall if we are going to force the issue, Holmes rates better. Apparently, CJ has been sliding a bit according to mr. McShay as well, Greg Jennings has been climbing up people's boards, which meshes with what Gosselin has rated Jennings at (round 2). PFT a few days ago Denver was targeting a WR in Round 2.

Who knows what to make of all these little tidbits, but I figure every bit adds to the texture of the NFL Draft landscape.

Poster on kffl bronco board

[Ballhawk]

Well at least they see that WR is NOT a value pick at #15.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Good to see the value chart trades are still alive and well. The only problem is that it takes a future 1st to move back into the 1st round from the mid-2nd. In fact, when Buffalo moved up from #42 in '04 (what do you know, the same pick in the 2nd they have now), it took them a 5th and a future 1st to move up to #22. It's going to cost more than what the value chart says to move into Denver's spot, and Shanahan should be shot if doesn't pick up a future 1st and moves down around 30 spots and out of the 1st round completely.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

I can't see a single reason to not trade down, other than whining fans....

Maybe it's the fact that you completely undervalued Denver's pick and want to trade down simply for the sake of trading down?

[Drek]

Good to see the value chart trades are still alive and well. The only problem is that it takes a future 1st to move back into the 1st round from the mid-2nd. In fact, when Buffalo moved up from #42 in '04 (what do you know, the same pick in the 2nd they have now), it took them a 5th and a future 1st to move up to #22. It's going to cost more than what the value chart says to move into Denver's spot, and Shanahan should be shot if doesn't pick up a future 1st and moves down around 30 spots and out of the 1st round completely.
Yep, we have 4 first day picks, 7 in the first four rounds, we've got about as many high picks as we can find roster spots for. If we move down from 15 it should be to bolster our '07 draft, ideally looking for that homerun top 15 pick again, since we can't make a move up in this draft and will want one of the top WRs in next year's class.

I don't think we will though, I think we'll be unable to find a trading partner and this board will do its best 3 mile island impression after we take Jay Cutler at 15.

[MechanicalBull]

I've always loved the idea of trading down but would like to stay in the first round and yesterday i posted this in another thread. #15=1050 value points and wouldnt mind trading with the Bucs, Bengals, or Giants. Bucs first 2 picks are 23 & 59=1070, Bengals 24 & 55=1090, and Giants 25 & 56=1060.

It would give us 5 picks in the first 68 and 4 picks in the first 2 rds.

For example a trade with the Bengals gives us 24 & 55 for #15
Rd 1(24) DeAngelo Williams, White or Maroney
Rd 2(37) Hali, Lawson, or Kiwanuka
Rd2(55) Marcedes Lewis, Klop, Pope or Fasano
Rd2(61) Trade for Javon Walker or Stovall, Haas, Hagan
Rd3(68) do the opposite of what ever we did for pick 61

[BowlenBall]

Maybe it's the fact that you completely undervalued Denver's pick and want to trade down simply for the sake of trading down?

It's true that I undervalued Denver's pick in all the examples that I gave - just to illustrate the point that a 1st round pick is usually not worth two 2nd rounders or a 2nd rounder and two 3rd rounders EVEN if you come out ahead on the generic trade value chart you see posted on some websites.

As for wanting to trade down for the sake of trading down...

1. Tamba Hali < Rodrique Wright, Darryl Tapp, and Chris Gocong (by far)
2. Chad Jackson < Derek Hagan, Maurice Stovall, and Mike Haas (by a huge margin)
3. DeAngelo Williams < Joseph Addai, Brian Calhoun, and Maurice Drew (a close one, though)
4. Broderick Bunkley < Marcedes Lewis, Claude Wroten, and Darryn Colledge (by a landslide)

Seems like you're undervaluing Denver's pick by wanting to stay in the first. Just for the sake of having a 1st round pick... ;)

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Seems like you're undervaluing Denver's pick by wanting to stay in the first. Just for the sake of having a 1st round pick... ;)

Good to know that in your short time here you've discerned what I want the Broncos to do with their remaining 1st round pick.

[Hotrod]

You'll take Hali and like it mister.

Oh and welcome to the mane.

[Hotrod]

Also how many picks do we need this year. Hell we have 9 already I dont think we need to sign up 12 rooks after making the AFC Championship last year. This puppy aint broke just needs a shot of youth and were fine.

[BowlenBall]

Thanks for the welcome, everyone - long time Broncos fan, 1st time discussion forum user.

As for Tamba Hali - I actually like him quite a bit... at about pick #25. Same with Chad Jackson, same with Santonio Holmes, same with any running back. The problem is, Denver has found themselves in the zone where we'll probably see a run on cornerbacks -- and we've finally gotten our quota of those, a year two early.

The only viable option for this pick is to:
a) trade up, but lose another 1-2 premium picks in a deep draft in the process;
or
b) trade down, and pick up another 1-2 premium picks in a deep draft.

It's becoming apparent that Hercules and I are on opposite sides of this fence. Of course, being a newbie, I could be wrong....

[BowlenBall]

As to the number of picks we've got - I have a feeling two of those 4th round picks and possibly the 5th/6th pick will be used for trading up in the 2nd and 3rd round to grab guys we like. When all is said in done, I bet we don't have more than 7 new faces from this draft.

[Old Dude]

I like the idea of stepping back a couple steps in return for more darts to throw at the target.

But then I think back to 2003, when we adopted that sort of approach to find one good defensive lineman. Whiff, whiff, whiff, whiff.

[Rohirrim]

The only way I want the Broncos to stay at 15 is if somebody like Huff, Bunkley or Haloti falls to them. Second, but still okay IMO, would be to take Lendale or Tamba (if the above three don't fall). Third, but still okay, would be to get somebody's 2007 first (not the Colts, but the Jets or Vikes, etc.) and a third or better. Then you get another pick in the value zone of this draft plus you're loaded to go after a QB (Quinn, Stanton for instance, depending on their seasons) next year.

Fourth, and not okay at all IMO, is to use 15 on any WR in this draft.

[Hotrod]

I agree 15 is too early for anyone we seem to be targeting. My problem with moving back is losing Hali and ending up with a 1st round WR that I dont want. Of course every single year I tell everyone what were doing with our #1 pick and the Broncos never listen so Im pretty sure Hali wont be the pick ;D

Another reason I like staying put atleast for now is someone may fall and we might find ourselves in position to grab him.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Third, but still okay, would be to get somebody's 2007 first (not the Colts, but the Jets or Vikes, etc.) and a third or better. Then you get another pick in the value zone of this draft plus you're loaded to go after a QB (Quinn, Stanton for instance, depending on their seasons) next year.

I doubt you could get the Jets to throw in their '07 1st since I think everyone is pretty sure (even more sure than the Skins last year) that they'll be picking pretty high. You'd want #29 back and #34 (or whatever their 2nd is), if they were to move up.

[Rohirrim]

I doubt you could get the Jets to throw in their '07 1st since I think everyone is pretty sure (even more sure than the Skins last year) that they'll be picking pretty high. You'd want #29 back and #34 (or whatever their 2nd is), if they were to move up.

That still works, because you might be able to sucker some hungry team to switch some 2007 picks for that 29 or 34. The Broncos have done such a great job of loading up for this draft, I just want them to load up for a QB next year, if at all possible.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

That wouldn't be a sucker move, you could get an '07 1st for that 2nd (and the one Denver just got from San Fran), especially since this is considered a deep draft.

[Paladin]

I can appreciate the wisdom of thinking about next years' draft. It's the old Ant and Grasshopper thing, ya know? However, since I am male, I need gratification this year. Therefor, the trades I prefer are those that gives picks this year.

[Rohirrim]

I can appreciate the wisdom of thinking about next years' draft. It's the old Ant and Grasshopper thing, ya know? However, since I am male, I need gratification this year. Therefor, the trades I prefer are those that gives picks this year.

Yeah, but the Broncos are so loaded with picks this year, they can start to think about next year.

[bilrob]

You know, there is a lot of need on the Bronco team this year and Shanny also knows it, and no doubt has figured out what they need. What they need, I don't know, but some in the FO does. In my opinion, since this is such a good draft with lots of talent, I look for Shanny to consentrate on the rest of the undrafted players in addition to his picks. He is really good at seeing talent that others miss. This where the cheepies are.

[JCMElway]

I agree, trading down is the way to go. The only reason to trade up would be to get Vernon Davis. And I think somehow, it's going to happen.

[Ballhawk]

The only real scenario I like another trade down would be to TB or Giants then pick:

Mangold
Joseph
Lewis
Wright/Wroten
Hagen



Oline would be set for the next few years and we would have a TE for the redzone.