Are You a Sitter or a Trader?

[Rohirrim]

Using the old Cowboys’ draft value chart as a guide, I estimate that the Broncos’ two picks at 22 (= 800 pts.) and 29 (= 720 pts.), if combined in an upward trade, would take us to the 7th pick (1500).

Currently, San Francisco has the 7th pick (as near as I can make out, anyway. NFL Draft Countdown has the Raiders at 7 and the Niners at 6. Every other list I’ve seen has the Niners at 7). Shanahan has a relationship with the Niners. They might want to move down for more picks, rather than sit on a 7. So a trade wouldn’t be too far fetched.

Anyway, any one of these players might (I said might) be available at number 7, and give excellent value for the pick, depending how the first six shake out:

*Mario Williams DE 6-6, 285 North Carolina State
D'Brickashaw Ferguson OT 6-5, 294 Virginia
DeAngelo Williams RB 5-9, 215 Memphis (X)
A.J. Hawk LB 6-1, 243 Ohio State
Jimmy Williams CB 6-2, 205 Virginia Tech
*LenDale White RB 6-1, 235 Southern California
Marcus McNeill OT 6-8, 322 Auburn
Tamba Hali DE 6-2, 265 Penn State
Chad Greenway LB 6-2, 243 Iowa
Eric Winston OT 6-6, 310 Miami
*Haloti Ngata DT 6-5, 340 Oregon
Mathias Kiwanuka DE 6-6, 260 Boston College
Michael Huff DB 6-1, 205 Texas
*Laurence Maroney RB 5-11, 205 Minnesota
*Vernon Davis TE 6-2, 255 Maryland
Jonathan Scott OT 6-7, 307 Texas

This is sixteen players. So the mathematical odds are that one or two of these guys will still be on the board at 22.

Depending on how you slice it, maybe only the top half on this list are worth a 7th pick, and the second half aren’t. Presumably the Broncos wouldn’t need Hawk, J. Williams or Greenway, so that further reduces it (although if Hawk was a Bronco and DJ or Ian got traded, I wouldn’t be weeping about it).

So, here’s the question. Is it worth it for the Broncos to trade up, or should they sit tight at 22 & 29 and hope for the best?

Of course, some things might happen that would force your hand, so any decision to sit tight or trade up could be conditional. Say The Brick is suddenly sitting there at 7! If you’re a Sitter, that might make you change your mind.

Of course, if you’d prefer somebody from the second half of this list, the Broncos could combine pick 22 and their second round pick and move up to about 14, keeping their 29 pick.

It’s interesting to think, though, that any of these choices could be a Bronco.

So, are you a Sitter or a Trader?

[azbroncfan]

You would have to throw something else in as if you are moving up you need to have more points than the pick your trading for.

[RocBronc]

Right now I'm a sitter... I'd like to do something to get a 2nd 2nd round pick so we have 4 picks in the top 2 rounds... This is a very deep draft and I think we have alot of "minor" needs on this team as opposed to 1 or 2 major needs so I think trading down to somehow have 4 picks in the top 2 rounds.

[Rohirrim]

You would have to throw something else in as if you are moving up you need to have more points than the pick your trading for.

Depends on who you're dealing with. The value chart is just a guide. Some teams follow it religiously, some don't.

[Rascal]

The only people I would want to trade up for are: Mario, Ngata, Huff, Simpson, and Bunkley.

Use our third to move up to get Bunkley (ahead of KC who I think will take him if he is there), use our second to move up for Huff or Simpson, and combine both of our firsts for either Mario or Ngata.

[Victor]

I am a Sitter with a capital S. Stay put and pick up two nice players. There will be lots and lots of value left on the board.

[TheDave]

Right now I'm a sitter...

Agreed at this point im sitting on what we have. Between the all star games, the combine and individual workouts everything is going to change. Now assuming that it is april and we have a shot at Mario (who by that time has proven to be worthy of the #7 pick) then yes i would consider it. BUT THE FRONT OFFICE BETTER BE SURE THEY ARE RIGHT. I'm going to go Watermock if they trade a few picks to move up and draft a bust!!!

[Mediator12]

The only people I would want to trade up for are: Mario, Ngata, Huff, Simpson, and Bunkley.

Use our third to move up to get Bunkley (ahead of KC who I think will take him if he is there), use our second to move up for Huff or Simpson, and combine both of our firsts for either Mario or Ngata.

I'm with that all the way in bold.

I am not as interested in safety as you are in the first round. Second or third will have some good players in value.

Losing both firsts for one player is a huge risk IMHO. Much rather get Bunkley and A good DE instead of throwing all my eggs in one basket.

[SpringStein]

I'm in the group of "moderate" trader - not radical. In other words, I'll gladly give up a third (especially if we have a 3rd comp) to trade up with Dallas to #18. Guess who is sitting at 19 and 20? Yep, our two AFC buddies, the Chargers and Chiefs. It would be nice to get a guy we really want, plus steal him from one of them!!

[-Slap-]

I prefer trading down, but everyone situation is different.

[eddie mac]

Far too early to consider what to do with any of our picks. No-one will know until we settle some outstanding roster issues: re: Lepsis, Warren, Pryce, Nalen etc. We've no idea at this point whether we'll need 1 impact player in this draft or 2 or 3 to contribute right away.

[scorpio]

Another element to this is that franchises can only afford to pay so many low first round picks. The 49ers got Smith last year and he is shaping up to be a bust (although admittedly he hasn't had enough time to prove it), do they really want to take another chance on a someone who is going to command such a large salary? I bet the Niners would be eager to trade down as long as they don't come out looking like chumps.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Sit, this draft is too good.

[yavoon]

Another element to this is that franchises can only afford to pay so many low first round picks. The 49ers got Smith last year and he is shaping up to be a bust (although admittedly he hasn't had enough time to prove it), do they really want to take another chance on a someone who is going to command such a large salary? I bet the Niners would be eager to trade down as long as they don't come out looking like chumps.

yah they look like big enough chumps for drafting smith already.

[DomCasual]

Sitter, without a doubt.

[bombquixote]

sit on #22, trade #29 for two lower round picks.

[watermock]

I might make a move if Davis drops to 15...but I'm basically a sitter...we will have a few choices to throw around...We are going to have 10-11 picks, not sure, but we have enough to throw something into the mixer.

It's impossible to tell but we have ammo to move around. No way I give up both firsts. Someone there that wants a first and some other thing, I'm listening, but no freakin' way I trade both our #1s. We have a 3rd we can trade and will still have one, maybe two comp picks there at the end of the day.

Thowing a first and third at Davis might work.Got that is like a poker game...who knows beyond the first 5.

[Clockwork Orange]

Another element to this is that franchises can only afford to pay so many low first round picks. The 49ers got Smith last year and he is shaping up to be a bust (although admittedly he hasn't had enough time to prove it), do they really want to take another chance on a someone who is going to command such a large salary? I bet the Niners would be eager to trade down as long as they don't come out looking like chumps.

This has been rumored for a few weeks now.

http://www.nfldraftcountdown.com/features/rumormill.html

The best bet to make a trade in round one this year is the San Francisco 49'ers, who have a lot of needs and would like to stockpile additional draft choices. Look for them to move down at least once.

[FantomForce]

Sit and take two, it is always better than one;D

[broncohaven]

There are only 3 or 4 elite prospects, and after that there is good depth for legitimate first rounders. Unless we can trade into the top 3 it isn't worth it, and probably not even then.

I think there's a chance Bunmkley is on the board at #22. I've seen a couple mocks with him there. If not I think Tamba Hali might be there. I think you're always better off playing the numbers game when it comes to the draft.

[watermock]

two in the nest is better than one in the bush.

Unless I'm hunting bush...then it's hard to get two in the nest...altho it would be fun...

[Rohirrim]

I'm in the group of "moderate" trader - not radical. In other words, I'll gladly give up a third (especially if we have a 3rd comp) to trade up with Dallas to #18. Guess who is sitting at 19 and 20? Yep, our two AFC buddies, the Chargers and Chiefs. It would be nice to get a guy we really want, plus steal him from one of them!!

I like the way you think. :thumbs:

[gunns]

I'd be a T if it were for the first two. I do not want Kiwi....he's been struggling against Ferguson.

[watermock]

I'm sure we will be burning up the phone lines. We have dancing room this year.

I am still having trouble with our loss but I just have to get over it. If we looked back to Pearl Harbor we wouldn't of won the battle of Midway or held Omaha beach...

There are more battles to fight. With the extra #1 (which I hoped would be higher) and a couple comp picks we are loaded...The point is here you can only bring so many cakes to the table or something like that. I have no problem dancing around some. We only have so many spots at the table. We have enough picks to kinda pick and choose except a top pick, but they are spendy anyway...and our cap isn't friendly.

We were fussing last year and it was a good draft. DW was obviously still hurt and Foxy simply got picked on. Big Ben isn't to be trifled with.

I don't want Pubes to steal our coaches, but expect a couple to exit...it's normal...

I think Dennison and maybe Watson...but I think we keep our core..but that's just a guess.

It is still breaking my heart we got so close and got home field. *tears*

We are a moving army and will fight on...it's still hurting tho...but I'm shifting gears...give me a few more days...after the SB we can all dig into it.

[The Big E]

Sitter. The draft is such an imperfect science I'd rather have two shots at getting at least one right in the first round. Trading to make a move on a proven veteran is one thing, but I hope we don't trade both picks just to move up in the draft.

[SoCalBronco]

Sitter if the issue is trading up. Trader if the issue is trading down.

[watermock]

Trading down would be idiotic...we have plenty of picks and a good team...WTF are your thinking?

Packaging draft picks together or a pick and a player makes much more sense than winding up with 12 choices..need I remind you we have a roster limit?

We need quality not quanity..we have plenty of quanity...I say we dance around to get who we want. This is a rare year where we have enough picks to move around rather than just hope.

I can guarantee you this team won't be trading down.

[Tombstone RJ]

I'd trade up for LenDale White... but the Broncos don't really need him. However, if the Broncos did draft LenDale White, I see an almost unstoppable running game in their future...

[Popps]

Both #1's and our #3 for Mario Williams.

**** it. We're a player or two away from a Superbowl win. Quit playing games. We don't need 8 more CBs in the middle rounds. Take Williams, draft a couple of OL and a S in middle rounds... pick up a WR in FA, and we're good to go. Why make this complicated?

[Arkie]

Let's sit on the picks or maybe try to get more. Lots of keepers in this draft and I want lots of picks. It's a great year to get younger without compromising our championship calibre team.

[labronco]

Both #1's and our #3 for Mario Williams.

**** it. We're a player or two away from a Superbowl win. Quit playing games. We don't need 8 more CBs in the middle rounds. Take Williams, draft a couple of OL and a S in middle rounds... pick up a WR in FA, and we're good to go. Why make this complicated?

just the way i feel.

[wabbit]

Far too early to consider what to do with any of our picks. No-one will know until we settle some outstanding roster issues: re: Lepsis, Warren, Pryce, Nalen etc. We've no idea at this point whether we'll need 1 impact player in this draft or 2 or 3 to contribute right away.

This seems to be the truth of the matter; how many roster spots will even be available??

Shanahan & Co. draft for position, obviously, but they also draft to push the current player(s).

Denver has quite a few picks this year, so if these FA's don't get new contracts, I'm guessing they'll use them all.

If they do re-sign many of their FA's, I'm betting they make a run at a top ten pick.

The Broncos were built to win NOW, and while they had a great season by most standards...they didn't get the franchise where it wanted to ultimately go.

In Shanahans' way of thinking...that means changes/upgrades, and there will be both.

[Atlas]

Shanny doesn't like trading up. I think he will eye 2 or three players and if they are gone when Denver selects he will try to trade down.

Maybe he will trade up like 3 or so spots if some one is falling but there is no way he trades both 1sts to move up. Denver has too many holes to fill.

[SimonFletcher73]

I'd love to see Maroney in the orange and blue at 22 and the best available DE at 29. We need to leave this offseason with a young speed pass rusher. Even though this is said every year and we never get one.

The 1st round wrs are lackluster. Draft one later, give Devoe some chances, or get the big free agent wr - Moulds. Hate to say it but Watts seems dead to Shanny.

I really do believe we need a TE though. Maybe not in the 1st, but on the 1st day.