Mediator12
01-13-2006, 08:58 PM
Kirwan usually has great stuff. I think this is worthy because most is fresh to this board. NOTE: use link to read charts!
http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9163271
The pressure of divisional games
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Jan. 13, 2006) -- If you like pro football, this is the best weekend of action all year. I'll take my chances with four games over two conference championship games, or one game only for the Super Bowl title. The best eight teams are left standing, and there are two doubleheader days of action with coaches and players taking risks above and beyond the normal weekly action while trying to prevent elimination.
The Super Bowl is so close that all eight teams feel like they can reach out and grab the Lombardi Trophy. But before they actually get to Detroit, I thought I would drill down inside the game in hopes of bringing the fans a little more action than usual. It is truly risk and reward time for every team left in the playoffs.
WHO SHOULD BE BLITZING; WHO CAN HANDLE THE BLITZ?
As you watch the games this weekend, keep in mind that winning on third down, moving the ball through the air, and handling the blitz pressure are all absolutely necessary for any team to win. So I thought I would give you a glimpse at how the final eight offenses handle pressure defenses. Three of the eight teams have thrown double-digit touchdowns this season against the blitz. Defensive coordinators will think twice about the risk of sending heat against the Patriots (10), Broncos (11) and Colts (13). But when I went over all the remaining teams and looked at who the defensive coordinators might be inclined to call a blitz against on passing downs, the numbers are more revealing.
Here's a list of how many times a team was sacked or intercepted per blitz attempt (ratio) during the season. Defensive coordinators are all too willing to send a fifth player, or even a sixth, if the film breakdown says they will make the play at a reasonable rate.
Team Blitzes called against Sacks Intercepted Ratio
Denver 174 10 0 1:17.4
Indianapolis 162 10 1 1:14.7
New England 221 24 3 1:13.8
Seattle 146 11 4 1:10.4
Washington 174 13 4 1:10.2
Carolina 147 9 6 1:9.8
Pittsburgh 141 11 4 1:9.4
Chicago 163 19 3 1:7.4
The first thing you notice is that teams were more willing to "heat it up" against the Patriots than any other team, but the reward for sending extra players wasn't there. Sacking Tom Brady or forcing an interception once every 13.8 pass plays means that he will defeat the pressure scheme close to 14 times for each time the defense wins. It is much more likely that pressuring the Bears, Panthers or the Steelers will create a dividend for the defense. Those teams will give up a sack or interception once in every 7-10 times you go after them. Finally, the Broncos seem to understand how to play the most mistake-free football versus pressure of the remaining teams.
Now let's take a look at how successful defenses are when they send extra people after a quarterback. Calling a blitz in a pass situation is worthless unless you have people who can get to the QB or force an ill-advised pass.
Team Blitz attempts (per game) Sacks Interceptions Ratio
Seattle 166 (10.5) 24 2 1:6.3
Chicago 187 (11.5) 11 15 1:7.1
Indianapolis 38 (2.3) 5 0 1:7.6
Carolina 192 (12.0) 15 9 1:8.0
Pittsburgh 317 (19.8) 30 9 1:8.1
New England 182 (11.3) 17 4 1:8.6
Washington 248 (15.5) 21 6 1:9.1
Denver 261 (16.3) 15 4 1:13.7
The Colts use pressure far less than any other playoff team, but their ratio of causing a problem with a sack or interception is far better than the Broncos, who are willing to bring pressure 14 more times a game and only cause a sack or pick once every 13.7 attempts. Chicago is amazing when it brings pressure with 15 interceptions. I wonder what would happen if Lovie Smith was willing to call for a blitz as many times as the Steelers, Redskins or Broncos.
Is this the week teams bring it more than they did during the regular season with everything on the line? Risk and reward is a challenge to every team in the playoffs.
DON'T BEAT YOURSELF ... THE OPPONENT IS HARD ENOUGH
There are a number of categories that constitute a mental error before the snap that hurts an offense without the defense even doing a thing. Dropped passes can kill a team as well. Each one of the final eight teams will throw the ball this weekend, but how many of them will hold on to it? How do the teams stack up when it comes to giving the ball away? Which teams play on the shortest field because they work hard at field position?
I ranked the teams in these areas from 1-8 to determine which teams have the best chance of not beating themselves in these playoff games. If more than one team had the same grade in an area, they got the same points. The lower the score, the better chance a team has of not beating itself based on the 2005 regular season.
Team Presnap penalty Dropped passes Giveaways Short field Total
Denver 2 2 1 1 6
Seattle 2 2 2 5 11
Carolina 1 2 6 3 12
Indianapolis 6 1 3 6 16
Pittsburgh 5 5 4 4 18
Chicago 8 6 8 2 24
New England 7 6 5 7 25
Washington 4 8 7 8 27
By no means am I suggesting that these numbers indicate who will win or lose each game, but I do think it is important to understand which teams do the best job of not beating themselves, take advantage of the blitz on offense, and get to the QB on defense when they call for pressure. For example, Denver has done a better job of not beating themselves this year than its opponent, New England. The Broncos have done a better job of handling the blitz on offense, but they don't utilize pressure on defense as well as the Patriots. Which factors will play into winning and losing will not be determined until the game is played, but at least you can figure out how each team enters the contest and just maybe enhance the viewing of the games.
Finally, NE is much worse on the road at pressure. Brady is 1:1 in TD/INT Ratio. Plummer is 3:1. NE is going to have to play their A game ;D
http://www.superbowl.com/news/story/9163271
The pressure of divisional games
By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
(Jan. 13, 2006) -- If you like pro football, this is the best weekend of action all year. I'll take my chances with four games over two conference championship games, or one game only for the Super Bowl title. The best eight teams are left standing, and there are two doubleheader days of action with coaches and players taking risks above and beyond the normal weekly action while trying to prevent elimination.
The Super Bowl is so close that all eight teams feel like they can reach out and grab the Lombardi Trophy. But before they actually get to Detroit, I thought I would drill down inside the game in hopes of bringing the fans a little more action than usual. It is truly risk and reward time for every team left in the playoffs.
WHO SHOULD BE BLITZING; WHO CAN HANDLE THE BLITZ?
As you watch the games this weekend, keep in mind that winning on third down, moving the ball through the air, and handling the blitz pressure are all absolutely necessary for any team to win. So I thought I would give you a glimpse at how the final eight offenses handle pressure defenses. Three of the eight teams have thrown double-digit touchdowns this season against the blitz. Defensive coordinators will think twice about the risk of sending heat against the Patriots (10), Broncos (11) and Colts (13). But when I went over all the remaining teams and looked at who the defensive coordinators might be inclined to call a blitz against on passing downs, the numbers are more revealing.
Here's a list of how many times a team was sacked or intercepted per blitz attempt (ratio) during the season. Defensive coordinators are all too willing to send a fifth player, or even a sixth, if the film breakdown says they will make the play at a reasonable rate.
Team Blitzes called against Sacks Intercepted Ratio
Denver 174 10 0 1:17.4
Indianapolis 162 10 1 1:14.7
New England 221 24 3 1:13.8
Seattle 146 11 4 1:10.4
Washington 174 13 4 1:10.2
Carolina 147 9 6 1:9.8
Pittsburgh 141 11 4 1:9.4
Chicago 163 19 3 1:7.4
The first thing you notice is that teams were more willing to "heat it up" against the Patriots than any other team, but the reward for sending extra players wasn't there. Sacking Tom Brady or forcing an interception once every 13.8 pass plays means that he will defeat the pressure scheme close to 14 times for each time the defense wins. It is much more likely that pressuring the Bears, Panthers or the Steelers will create a dividend for the defense. Those teams will give up a sack or interception once in every 7-10 times you go after them. Finally, the Broncos seem to understand how to play the most mistake-free football versus pressure of the remaining teams.
Now let's take a look at how successful defenses are when they send extra people after a quarterback. Calling a blitz in a pass situation is worthless unless you have people who can get to the QB or force an ill-advised pass.
Team Blitz attempts (per game) Sacks Interceptions Ratio
Seattle 166 (10.5) 24 2 1:6.3
Chicago 187 (11.5) 11 15 1:7.1
Indianapolis 38 (2.3) 5 0 1:7.6
Carolina 192 (12.0) 15 9 1:8.0
Pittsburgh 317 (19.8) 30 9 1:8.1
New England 182 (11.3) 17 4 1:8.6
Washington 248 (15.5) 21 6 1:9.1
Denver 261 (16.3) 15 4 1:13.7
The Colts use pressure far less than any other playoff team, but their ratio of causing a problem with a sack or interception is far better than the Broncos, who are willing to bring pressure 14 more times a game and only cause a sack or pick once every 13.7 attempts. Chicago is amazing when it brings pressure with 15 interceptions. I wonder what would happen if Lovie Smith was willing to call for a blitz as many times as the Steelers, Redskins or Broncos.
Is this the week teams bring it more than they did during the regular season with everything on the line? Risk and reward is a challenge to every team in the playoffs.
DON'T BEAT YOURSELF ... THE OPPONENT IS HARD ENOUGH
There are a number of categories that constitute a mental error before the snap that hurts an offense without the defense even doing a thing. Dropped passes can kill a team as well. Each one of the final eight teams will throw the ball this weekend, but how many of them will hold on to it? How do the teams stack up when it comes to giving the ball away? Which teams play on the shortest field because they work hard at field position?
I ranked the teams in these areas from 1-8 to determine which teams have the best chance of not beating themselves in these playoff games. If more than one team had the same grade in an area, they got the same points. The lower the score, the better chance a team has of not beating itself based on the 2005 regular season.
Team Presnap penalty Dropped passes Giveaways Short field Total
Denver 2 2 1 1 6
Seattle 2 2 2 5 11
Carolina 1 2 6 3 12
Indianapolis 6 1 3 6 16
Pittsburgh 5 5 4 4 18
Chicago 8 6 8 2 24
New England 7 6 5 7 25
Washington 4 8 7 8 27
By no means am I suggesting that these numbers indicate who will win or lose each game, but I do think it is important to understand which teams do the best job of not beating themselves, take advantage of the blitz on offense, and get to the QB on defense when they call for pressure. For example, Denver has done a better job of not beating themselves this year than its opponent, New England. The Broncos have done a better job of handling the blitz on offense, but they don't utilize pressure on defense as well as the Patriots. Which factors will play into winning and losing will not be determined until the game is played, but at least you can figure out how each team enters the contest and just maybe enhance the viewing of the games.
Finally, NE is much worse on the road at pressure. Brady is 1:1 in TD/INT Ratio. Plummer is 3:1. NE is going to have to play their A game ;D