playoff possibilities

[Gort]

not counting my eggs before they are hatched, just trying to figure out the best possible scenario for the Broncos this year.

probable seedings...

1. Indy
2. Denver
3. Cincy
4. NE
5. WC#1
6. WC#2

in the first round, Cincy would play WC#6. if WC#6 wins, they'd face Indy. if Cincy wins, they'd face Denver.

i'm not a big believer in Cincy, but just to be on the safe side, i think we want the WC#2 team to advance and be capable of beating Indy. so, i think we need to be rooting for SD to get the WC#2 slot.

WC#1 would therefore likely go to either KC, Jax, or Pitt. the question is, which of those teams would Denver match up against best? we've seen KC twice, Jax once, and NE once already this year. do we want a rematch? or do we want a gimpy Roethlisberger-led Steeler team at Invesco?

what's more, which of those teams can win at NE in the playoffs?

for whatever it's worth, i think the Broncos can beat NE, Jax, KC, or Pitt in the playoffs at Invesco, so i think this is really a push. just to piss off the mullets, i'd like to see KC eliminated. i'm sure they will be. i'm not convinced that Pitt can make the playoffs either (they're 1 game behind KC right now in the standings anyway), so i think Jax is the most probable WC#1 team.

which means...

1. Indy
2. Denver
3. Cincy
4. NE
5. Jax
6. SD

round 1: SD @ Cincy
round 1: Jax @ NE

we want SD to win that game

round 2: SD @ Indy
round 2: Jax/NE @ Denver

we want SD and Denver to win those games

round 3: SD @ Denver

i think we would beat SD in that matchup and head to the superbowl.

so, as much as it sucks, i think we should all be rooting for SD to capture the 2nd WC slot. of course, Denver needs to hold onto the #2 seed or this is all irrelevant, but i think SD gives us our best chance of not having to go to Indy this year.

even if Cincy is capable of winning @ Indy, so long as they look good for the #3 slot, they will avoid facing Indy until the championship game, so they are of no help to us this year.

for the record, i'm not convinced that Indy is unbeatable at the dome, and if the Broncos HAD to go there for the championship game, i think Denver could win that game. it's just that all things being equal, i'd rather see the road to the superbowl go through Invesco, and that means somebody else needs to knock Indy out during the divisional round.

of course, the Broncos need to take care of business in the final 4 games and lock up the #2 slot or the point is moot... i'm just thinking ahead to see what permutation is most favorable. :)

[yavoon]

denver is the probable #2? we are tied w/ two other teams for the same record and have two MORE teams in our division no less 1 loss behind.

[Gort]

denver is the probable #2? we are tied w/ two other teams for the same record and have two MORE teams in our division no less 1 loss behind.

not quite correct. the #2 seed has to be a division winner. Indy has basically wrapped up #1 and NE can't challenge for #2, so the #2 seed is between the AFC West winner and the AFC North winner. Denver wins the 2nd tie breaker over Cincy right now. looking at the remaining schedules for all teams, the probabilities favor Denver for #2, which is precisely what i wrote. however, if both teams finish 3-1, then Cincy could win the 1st tie breaker over Denver. that's why Shanny needs to play all 4 games to win... no resting of starters. no doubt about it, Sunday's loss to KC could end being a big problem if Denver doesn't take care of the rest of their divisional schedule.

Denver has these games to play: Bal, @Buf, Oak, @SD
Cincy has these games to play: Cle, @Det, Buf, @KC

Denver has 1 divison loss. Cincy has 1 division loss. that would be the 1st tiebreaker if both finish with the same records. the 2nd tie breaker would be win/loss % over common opponents.

[yavoon]

not quite correct. the #2 seed has to be a division winner. Indy has basically wrapped up #1 and NE can't challenge for #2, so the #2 seed is between the AFC West winner and the AFC North winner. Denver wins the 2nd tie breaker over Cincy right now. looking at the remaining schedules for all teams, the probabilities favor Denver for #2, which is precisely what i wrote. however, if both teams finish 3-1, then Cincy could win the 1st tie breaker over Denver. that's why Shanny needs to play all 4 games to win... no resting of starters. no doubt about it, Sunday's loss to KC could end being a big problem if Denver doesn't take care of the rest of their divisional schedule.

Denver has these games to play: Bal, @Buf, Oak, @SD
Cincy has these games to play: Cle, @Det, Buf, @KC

Denver has 1 divison loss. Cincy has 1 division loss. that would be the 1st tiebreaker if both finish with the same records. the 2nd tie breaker would be win/loss % over common opponents.

in that case good on us! the team w/ the bye week has an 80% chance of making it to the championship game(tho that game is a lot less homefield oriented)

[eddie mac]

not quite correct. the #2 seed has to be a division winner. Indy has basically wrapped up #1 and NE can't challenge for #2, so the #2 seed is between the AFC West winner and the AFC North winner. Denver wins the 2nd tie breaker over Cincy right now. looking at the remaining schedules for all teams, the probabilities favor Denver for #2, which is precisely what i wrote. however, if both teams finish 3-1, then Cincy could win the 1st tie breaker over Denver. that's why Shanny needs to play all 4 games to win... no resting of starters. no doubt about it, Sunday's loss to KC could end being a big problem if Denver doesn't take care of the rest of their divisional schedule.

Denver has these games to play: Bal, @Buf, Oak, @SD
Cincy has these games to play: Cle, @Det, Buf, @KC

Denver has 1 divison loss. Cincy has 1 division loss. that would be the 1st tiebreaker if both finish with the same records. the 2nd tie breaker would be win/loss % over common opponents.

WRONG.

The 1st tiebreaker in seeding playoff teams is head to head the second is results in AFC Conference games not divisional games. Currently Denver is 6-2 and Cincy 6-3. How can you compare divisional games when neither team is in the same division?

[Jens1893]

www.nfl.com

NFL Tiebreaking Procedures

(March 20, 2002) -- With the NFL realigning into eight four-team divisions to accommodate the arrival of the Houston Texans, the league adopted new tiebreaking rules.

Common opponents will now be the third tiebreaker within a division after head-to-head games and division record because each of the four teams will have 14 common games in the 16-game schedule. The owners also moved the strength-of-victory tiebreaker ahead of the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker.

The six postseason participants from each conference will now be seeded as follows:
1. The division champion with the best record.
2. The division champion with the second-best record.
3. The division champion with the third-best record.
4. The division champion with the fourth-best record.
5. The Wild Card club with the best record.
6. The Wild Card club with the second-best record.

The following procedures will be used to break standings ties for postseason playoffs and to determine regular-season schedules.

NOTE: Tie games count as one-half win and one-half loss for both clubs.

TO BREAK A TIE WITHIN A DIVISION
If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated during any step, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of the two-club format).
1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games among the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.

TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.
1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

Three or More Clubs
(Note: If two clubs remain tied after third or other clubs are eliminated, tie breaker reverts to step 1 of applicable two-club format.)
1. Apply division tie breaker to eliminate all but the highest ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. The original seeding within a division upon application of the division tie breaker remains the same for all subsequent applications of the procedure that are necessary to identify the two Wild-Card participants.
2. Head-to-head sweep. (Applicable only if one club has defeated each of the others or if one club has lost to each of the others.)
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in conference games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

When the first Wild-Card team has been identified, the procedure is repeated to name the second Wild-Card, i.e., eliminate all but the highest-ranked club in each division prior to proceeding to step 2. In situations where three or more teams from the same division are involved in the procedure, the original seeding of the teams remains the same for subsequent applications of the tie breaker if the top-ranked team in that division qualifies for a Wild-Card berth.

OTHER TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURES
1. Only one club advances to the playoffs in any tie-breaking step. Remaining tied clubs revert to the first step of the applicable division or Wild-Card tie breakers. As an example, if two clubs remain tied in any tie-breaker step after all other clubs have been eliminated, the procedure reverts to step one of the two-club format to determine the winner. When one club wins the tie breaker, all other clubs revert to step 1 of the applicable two-club or three-club format.
2. In comparing division and conference records or records against common opponents among tied teams, the best won-lost-tied percentage is the deciding factor since teams may have played an unequal number of games.
3. To determine home-field priority among division titlists, apply Wild-Card tie breakers.
4. To determine home-field priority for Wild-Card qualifiers, apply division tie breakers (if teams are from the same division) or Wild-Card tie breakers (if teams are from different ivisions).

TIE-BREAKING PROCEDURE FOR SELECTION MEETING
If two or more clubs are tied in the selection order, the strength-of-schedule tie breaker is applied, subject to the following exceptions for playoff clubs:

1. The Super Bowl winner is last and the Super Bowl loser next-to-last.
2. Any non-Super Bowl playoff club involved in a tie shall be assigned priority within its segment below that of non-playoff clubs and in the order that the playoff clubs exited from the playoffs. Thus, within a tied segment a playoff club that loses in the Wild-Card game will have priority over a playoff club that loses in the Divisional playoff game, which in turn will have priority over a club that loses in the Conference Championship game. If two tied clubs exited the playoffs in the same round, the tie is broken by strength of schedule.

If any ties cannot be broken by strength of schedule, the divisional or conference tie breakers, whichever are applicable, are applied. Any ties that still exist are broken by a coin flip.

[Jens1893]

1. Head-to-head, if applicable. 0-0

2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.

Denver 6-2, Cincy 6-3

DENVER - Baltimore, @ Buffalo, Oakland, @ San Diego
CINCINNATI - Cleveland, @ Detroit, Buffalo, @ Kansas City

3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.

The common games are:

DEN CIN
Jacksonville 1-0 0-1
Baltimore 0-0 2-0
Buffalo 0-0 0-0
Kansas City 1-1 0-0
TOTAL 2-1 2-1


Can you say "Go C ........ h ...... i ..............." ?

[meangene]

3-1 down the stretch will give us the division in all probabilty. But, we may very well have to go 4-0 to hang on to the #2 seed. I keep thinking back to the damn Giants game!

[sirhcyennek81]

Denver has a better conference record then Cinci, that is why we are still the 2 seed. geesh. breathe people. We also have a head to head win against Jacksonville.

[meangene]

Denver has a better conference record then Cinci, that is why we are still the 2 seed. geesh. breathe people. We also have a head to head win against Jacksonville.

We also have the same record and similar schedules in terms of difficulty. We play SD on a Saturday and the Cin-KC game could have no meaning for KC and great meaning to Cincy if we don't take care of business. It's in our hands but there is little margin for error.

[sirhcyennek81]

If Jacksonville ends up with the same record as us, or more wins, they would still be a WC. The team that matters most is Cincy, i would so love it if the browns pulled off the upset, but i doubt they will.

[meangene]

If Jacksonville ends up with the same record as us, or more wins, they would still be a WC. The team that matters most is Cincy, i would so love it if the browns pulled off the upset, but i doubt they will.

I'm not worried about Jacksonville. It's Cincy that concerns me. Wouldn't it be ironic if we end up rooting for the Chefs the last week of the season. The bastards would probably lay down if it had no meaning for them!

[Gort]

WRONG.

The 1st tiebreaker in seeding playoff teams is head to head the second is results in AFC Conference games not divisional games. Currently Denver is 6-2 and Cincy 6-3. How can you compare divisional games when neither team is in the same division?


welll excuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuse me!

that was in response to a follow up post. so sorry to offend you and that i got it wrong. i was looking at that long list (shown below), but in my haste to explain why Denver was currently #2, i read the wrong list of tie breakers.

nevertheless, the main point stands. as a Broncos fan, i want to see Cincy finish worse than Denver, but well enough to take the #3 seed. i also want Jax to get the #5 seed, and SD to get #6. i think that gives the Broncos the best chance of never having to leave Invesco, so long as they are able to hold the #2 spot after the next 4 games.

i figured other people here would be interested in seeing this info as well, since scoreboard watching is something we will all be doing.

[kappys]

I'm not worried about Jacksonville. It's Cincy that concerns me. Wouldn't it be ironic if we end up rooting for the Chefs the last week of the season. The bastards would probably lay down if it had no meaning for them!

They would gladly lay down if it gave them a chance to screw us over, don't even consider a different possibility. WE have to go 4-0 to hold on to a bye week spot.

[sirhcyennek81]

colts go 16-0, get a bye...only to lose to san diego in the div. round...then we would get to play the lovely chargers at mile high.

[broncofan2438]

Whatever, its so frusterating to hear "ok, he wins, they lose, we win 3, and they lose two, then we are in" LETS JUST FREAKIN WIN ALL FOUR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[sirhcyennek81]

agreed. going 4-0 down the stretch renders a KC win last sunday meaningless.

[broncofan2438]

Finally someone agrees with me

[terry251973]

we dont want sd to beat indy and come here for title game.because u know what will happen if that happens and we go to superbowl.all the so called experts and prety much everybody besides us will say only reason we went to superbowl is cause indy got beat and we didnt have to go there.for everything theyve done to us past 2 years in playoffs,i want us to go to indy and slap them in face and beat them in front of there own fans and lay to rest all this peyton is so great crap.hes only as good as his offensive line.

[rbackfactory80]

we dont want sd to beat indy and come here for title game.because u know what will happen if that happens and we go to superbowl.all the so called experts and prety much everybody besides us will say only reason we went to superbowl is cause indy got beat and we didnt have to go there.for everything theyve done to us past 2 years in playoffs,i want us to go to indy and slap them in face and beat them in front of there own fans and lay to rest all this peyton is so great crap.hes only as good as his offensive line.


You are saying winning the superbowl without playing Indy isn't legit. That would be fine with me.

[DomCasual]

denver is the probable #2? we are tied w/ two other teams for the same record and have two MORE teams in our division no less 1 loss behind.
I'd say they are a probably #2 based on their remaining schedule. If they lose more than one more game, something went horribly wrong. Nobody out of the AFC East is going to catch them. Pittsburgh is doomed. That leaves Cincinnati and the other teams in the AFC West. If Denver went 3-1, Cincinnati would have to go 4-0 to jump ahead - a possibility, but that game at KC looks tough. San Diego and Kansas City have brutal schedules coming up, and it would be a real upset if either was able to win out.

So yeah, I'd say they are the probably #2.

[No1BroncoFan]

Two Clubs
1. Head-to-head, if applicable.
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four.
4. Strength of victory.
5. Strength of schedule.
6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best net points in conference games.
9. Best net points in all games.
10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
11. Coin toss.

This should be a hint to all the stat geeks on the board (you listening Bob). All but two of these tie-breakers are based on winning and points. The only one that's based on stats is #10, touchdowns. Uh, gee... Points. Guess what stat geeks, the NFL agrees. Stats are for losers. That's why the tie-breakers for winning teams are decided by wins/points.

Ben

[minibronco]

Good lord guys. I'm having a migraine trying the figure this one out. Good analysis. Rep for the hard work.

A #2 would be nice.

[Arkie]

The historic first playoff game at Invesco will be against the Patriots. After knocking out the champs, the Broncos are off to Indianapolis to excorcise some demons.

1. Indy
2. Denver
3. Cincy
4. NE
5. Jax
6. SD

Wildcards
SD over Cincy
NE over Jax

Divisionals
Indy over SD
Denver over NE

AFC Championship
Denver over Indy

[watermock]

probable this, probable that...we could still go 9-7...barfing up yet another hairball in KC in December tightened everything to zero margin of error...

[sirhcyennek81]

No, losing in KC didnt do anything except cut the lead to one game. We go 4-0, which is highly likely, what KC or san diego does the next 4 weeks wont matter.

[watermock]

Tell me exactly why going 4-0 is so likely given our history and the poor play last sunday? What am I missing here?

[watermock]

No, losing in KC didnt do anything except cut the lead to one game. We go 4-0, which is highly likely, what KC or san diego does the next 4 weeks wont matter.

BTW, it didn't "cut the lead to one game"... it put us in a virtual tie with cincy for the second seed...I can't figure that logic out...they win, we lose, they are in the second seed...period...Indy has the first round bye and home field virtually wrapped up...we are far from it...

Want an example? we are 9-3...HornHeads are 7-5...you want to understand how thin that is right now? We also have KC and SD fighing it out thank god...and we have to fight a nemisis in lex luthor, AKA Billick....

[sirhcyennek81]

Denver has a better conference record then Cinci. It is NOT a virtual tie. Also...wtf do the vikings have to do with the Broncos? Denver has a one game lead over KC and San Diego. The next 3 opponents they face are a combined 12-24. Two of those games are at home. Denver should be 12-3 by the time we roll into San Diego.

[azbroncfan]

No, losing in KC didnt do anything except cut the lead to one game. We go 4-0, which is highly likely, what KC or san diego does the next 4 weeks wont matter.
And give Denver a crucial loss in Division games which will probably be the difference in resting players in week 17 vs playing them. That is the worst loss that Denver could have had except vs fade or chargless.

[sirhcyennek81]

KC and San Diego i believe play one another the next 4 weeks, both of them have pretty hard schedules, denver does their job, what KC or SD do will not matter.

[Arkie]

On the other hand, if San Diego does their job and goes 4-0, there is nothing Denver can do about it.

[Means20]

I wouldn't mind seeing Denver beat Indi in the playoffs but i've gotta say I don't see it happening. Denver struggles when they are forced to "out-score" teams. I think it's up to SD or Cinci to stop Indi otherwise, it pains me to say, ready yourself for some severe Manning butt lovin (we should all be used to this by now).