This Just In: Denver Secondary is Excellent and Darrant Williams is a Stud

[epicSocialism4tw]

We know that we get passed on alot, and that our rookies are doing well, but the statistics say differently. We're ranked 28th in pass yards against. This statistician actually took some time to debunk the myth that our pass D is vulnerable. This read is a must!


http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/columns/story?columnist=joyner_kc&id=2244786

Secondary No Longer A Primary Concern
K.C. Joyner
espn.com

One of the things I enjoy doing with my analysis is shedding light on players or units that aren't being accurately represented by the standard statistical analysis. The Denver Broncos secondary is a perfect example.

This unit is ranked 28th in the league in passing yards allowed per game and is tied for 23rd in passing touchdowns allowed. The Broncos have the highest number of pass attempts against them, with nearly 40 per game. When you combine these statistics with the fact that two of the Broncos' top three cornerbacks are rookies, you can easily see why it might be perceived that the Broncos secondary is struggling.

How well are the Broncos cornerbacks playing? Have teams been able to target their rookies with success? A metric analysis shows that not only are these rookies more than holding their own, but Champ Bailey is also playing better than is generally thought.

First, let's take a look at rookie starting cornerback Darrent Williams. I have broken down nine of Denver's 11 games this season, with only the Philadelphia and N.Y. Jets games missing. Here are Williams' numbers in those nine games:

Darrent Williams
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen
Short 33 22 198 0 1 0
Medium 12 7 109 0 1 0
Deep 9 0 0 0 0 0
Totals 54 29 307 0 2 0


What really stands out is his ability to play deep passes. One of the things I evaluate on every pass is the quality of the defender's coverage. Good coverage means it will take an excellent pass and catch for a completion, while tight coverage indicates the receiver has almost no chance for the completion. It is a subjective rating, but I find it to be a useful benchmark.

Williams had good coverage on six of the deep passes. He also stripped a pass away from a receiver on one of the plays where the receiver was open, and knocked down another pass that possibly could have been completed. That makes eight deep passes that Williams either shut down the receiver or was directly responsible for the incompletion. Williams did all of this against the deep passes and still didn't allow a high number of yards per short pass attempt (only 6 yards per short pass attempt).

Domonique Foxworth is Denver's nickel cornerback. Foxworth's numbers are not quite as good, but they are very solid:

Domonique Foxworth
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen
Short 30 20 137 1 0 0
Medium 16 8 111 1 0 0
Deep 12 3 101 1 1 18
Totals 58 31 349 3 1 18


Foxworth's has allowed more deep passes than Williams, but he makes up for some of that with his excellent short pass numbers. Foxworth is allowing an identical completion percentage to Williams, but is only allowing 4.6 yards per short pass attempt.

What is remarkable in both cases is that they are stopping the short passes, despite frequently playing very far off the line of scrimmage. I measure how far off a cornerback is positioned at the beginning of a play, ranging anywhere from one to 11 yards. Anything 7 yards or greater is considered by the offense to be an invitation to throw short passes. Both Foxworth and Williams are lining up 7 yards or more off the line of scrimmage between 60 to 70 percent of the time.

The Broncos have Foxworth and Williams lining up this far off because Denver blitzes a lot and doesn't want to give up the deep pass. A team normally has to concede short pass completions when it blitzes, but these talented rookies are making certain the Broncos don't have to pay too heavy of a price against the short passes.

One of the more controversial pieces in "Scientific Football 2005" was my review of Champ Bailey. The statistical evidence from the 2004 campaign showed that Bailey was one of the worst cornerbacks in football against the deep pass.

Bailey has been banged up this year, so I expected something of a repeat in 2005. I was quite surprised to see the actual results:

Champ Bailey
Depth Att Comp Yds TD INT Pen
Short 20 12 83 0 2 0
Medium 11 3 47 1 1 28
Deep 9 2 37 1 1 0
Totals 40 17 167 2 4 28


Bailey is still obviously being thrown at deep, but his performance this year is much improved over last year. In fact, these are the numbers you would expect from Bailey when he is fully healthy, which he has not been this year.

The Broncos' playoff nemesis the past two seasons has been the Indianapolis Colts. One of the primary reasons the Broncos drafted Foxworth and Williams is so they would match up better against the Colts.

Indianapolis is possibly the best team in football at attacking a weakness in an opponent's secondary, and Denver had plenty of weaknesses to be exploited in the teams' previous matchups. If these two teams meet in January, Peyton Manning won't have it nearly as easy this year.

KC Joyner, aka The Football Scientist, is a regular contributor to ESPN Insider. He has a Web site at http://thefootballscientist.com.

[rbackfactory80]

good read. I hope that is the truth.

[ludo21]

Great read! Wow Baily has only let up 167 yards passing all year! Thats crazy!! well maybe closer to 300 with the Jets/Eagles game, but still, thats freaking amazing!

[Dr. Broncenstein]

First "expert" I've actually enjoyed reading in.... well, forever.. thanks

[Mile High Shack]

which is why I humble apologize to Coyer

after I've read a few of these types of articles, I realize our pass defense isn't as bad as what I thought

you are going to give up yards when you have like 40 passes a game thrown at you

[GreatBronco16]

Something has to be wrong with those stats, esp Baileys. If you are covering the short, medium and long, then why is it showing Bailey with only 4INTs? He has six on the year. Or am I just missing something?

[ludo21]

Something has to be wrong with those stats, esp Baileys. If you are covering the short, medium and long, then why is it showing Bailey with only 4INTs? He has six on the year. Or am I just missing something?


2 games were left out. Eagles/Jets

[GreatBronco16]

2 games were left out. Eagles/Jets

Doh, now I see it. I just skimmed through the articles and went to the stats.

[GreatBronco16]

I guess my next question should be, why did he leave out those two games?

[Willynowei]

I guess my next question should be, why did he leave out those two games?

I don't know but in the Jets game Bailey didn't let up a thing and had a great pick on Testaverde anyways.

In the Eagles game, Bailey allowed about 130 yards but no TDs.

SO just add like 130 yards and an INT onto those stats.

[Lidderer]

I guess my next question should be, why did he leave out those two games?

he tapes every nfl game and goes through each passing play marking off depth of coverage, openness of wr(3 yards, 5 yards, etc.), and tracks this for each CB and WR, which means that's an awful lot of work. He left them out, I'm assuming, because he hasn't gotten around to breaking them down, which is understandable.

His book is phenomenal if you ever get a chance to glance through it--it's a bit stat-heavy and hard to navigate, but what little of it i've seen is remarkable.

[SteveTensi13]

I don't know but in the Jets game Bailey didn't let up a thing and had a great pick on Testaverde anyways.

In the Eagles game, Bailey allowed about 130 yards but no TDs.

SO just add like 130 yards and an INT onto those stats.

Did you forget the 91 yard TD by T.O against Bailey?:kiddingme

[GreatBronco16]

I don't know but in the Jets game Bailey didn't let up a thing and had a great pick on Testaverde anyways.

In the Eagles game, Bailey allowed about 130 yards but no TDs.

SO just add like 130 yards and an INT onto those stats.


Even if you add that we are still missing 1 INT somewhere. Bailey has 6 total. By his article and adding in those two games, that would give Bailey 5 which is wrong.

[Lidderer]

Even if you add that we are still missing 1 INT somewhere. Bailey has 6 total. By his article and adding in those two games, that would give Bailey 5 which is wrong.

Probably the dallas INT, where he wasn't really guarding anyone at all, just positioned on the sideline where the pass was overthrown. It'd be hard to consider it coverage, what with him manned up on only a line of chalk. I'm pretty sure this accounts for the 5th INT.

[Rascal]

Did you actually look at the play or are you talking out of your ass?

If you look at that INT he was covering Glenn but read Bledsoe and checked down for the INT.

It's the same reason why he gave up the TD to Keyshawn later in the game. Bledsoe did the same thing (different WR) and Champ bit, but this time Bledsoe threw over the top to Keyshawn.

[Mile High Shack]

Did you actually look at the play or are you talking out of your ass?

If you look at that INT he was covering Glenn but read Bledsoe and checked down for the INT.

It's the same reason why he gave up the TD to Keyshawn later in the game. Bledsoe did the same thing (different WR) and Champ bit, but this time Bledsoe threw over the top to Keyshawn.

and on that TD to Meshawn, Champ admitted it was busted coverage, but he didn't blame anyone, he just said, yeah, it was busted coverage

so my guess is the safety wasn't there

[Lidderer]

Did you actually look at the play or are you talking out of your ass?

If you look at that INT he was covering Glenn but read Bledsoe and checked down for the INT.

It's the same reason why he gave up the TD to Keyshawn later in the game. Bledsoe did the same thing (different WR) and Champ bit, but this time Bledsoe threw over the top to Keyshawn.

the point being that it wasn't thrown to the man he was covering.

Do a better job Understanding Your Man.

[Rascal]

the point being that it wasn't thrown to the man he was covering.

Do a better job Understanding Your Man.

Dumb logic...so tell me who they are covering in zone coverage then? I guess we should just throw out all INT's that are not made in strictly man-on-man coverage.

[Lidderer]

Dumb logic...so tell me who they are covering in zone coverage then? I guess we should just throw out all INT's that are not made in strictly man-on-man coverage.


Hmm, K.C. Joyner or a guy named Rascal?

Ya, tough call. Gimme a break, bailey did nothing worthwhile on that play other than being there when a horrible pass was thrown and running down the field. You want to lionize him for that, fine, but it's foolish to do so. The other picks aren't nearly as debatable, hence their inclusion.

[listopencil]

Did you actually look at the play or are you talking out of your ass?

If you look at that INT he was covering Glenn but read Bledsoe and checked down for the INT.

It's the same reason why he gave up the TD to Keyshawn later in the game. Bledsoe did the same thing (different WR) and Champ bit, but this time Bledsoe threw over the top to Keyshawn.


I meant to bring that up after the game but forgot about it. On that TD Champ ended up covering two people. He was very obviously hovering between. I think he went for the short route because that's where the Pats had been going and because there obviously wasn't a LB there to make the play, where a Safety could be more reasonably expected to come over and cover. That was blown coverage, and it was incredibly obvious.

[Jetmeck]

Don't worry "statistic man-BOOB" will be along to debunk all of the above info.

[Northman]

Gimme a break, bailey did nothing worthwhile on that play other than being there when a horrible pass was thrown and running down the field.

I think your selling Champ a bit short here. thanks to on demand i was able to view the Dallas game hightlights again and Champ had already made a move to that spot. what that tells me is that Champ knew where the play was going but the Receiver slowed down when he saw Bledsoe overthrow him. Champ was actually in the spot the receiver should have been in and Champ made a play on it.

[OrangeShadow]

<TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=420 border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=7>Darrent Williams</TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Depth</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Att</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Comp</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Yds</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>TD</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>INT</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Pen</TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Short </TD><TD width=56>33 </TD><TD width=56>22 </TD><TD width=56>198 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Medium </TD><TD width=56>12 </TD><TD width=56>7 </TD><TD width=56>109 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Deep </TD><TD width=56>9 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Totals </TD><TD width=56>54 </TD><TD width=56>29 </TD><TD width=56>307 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>2 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<!---------------------INLINE TABLE (BEGIN)---------------------><TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=420 border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=7>Domonique Dominique Foxworth</TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Depth</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Att</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Comp</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Yds</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>TD</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>INT</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Pen</TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Short </TD><TD width=56>30 </TD><TD width=56>20 </TD><TD width=56>137 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Medium </TD><TD width=56>16 </TD><TD width=56>8 </TD><TD width=56>111 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Deep </TD><TD width=56>12 </TD><TD width=56>3 </TD><TD width=56>101 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>18 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Totals </TD><TD width=56>58 </TD><TD width=56>31 </TD><TD width=56>349 </TD><TD width=56>3 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>18 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><!---------------------INLINE TABLE (END)---------------------><!---------------------INLINE TABLE (BEGIN)---------------------><TABLE id=inlinetable cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width=420 border=0><TBODY><TR><TH style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #000000" colSpan=7>Champ Bailey</TH><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Depth</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Att</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Comp</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Yds</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>TD</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>INT</TD><TD style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #999999" width=56>Pen</TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Short </TD><TD width=56>20 </TD><TD width=56>12 </TD><TD width=56>83 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD><TD width=56>2 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Medium </TD><TD width=56>11 </TD><TD width=56>3 </TD><TD width=56>47 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>28 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ffffff" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Deep </TD><TD width=56>9 </TD><TD width=56>2 </TD><TD width=56>37 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>1 </TD><TD width=56>0 </TD></TR><TR style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #ececec" vAlign=top><TD width=56>Totals </TD><TD width=56>40 </TD><TD width=56>17 </TD><TD width=56>167 </TD><TD width=56>2 </TD><TD width=56>4 </TD><TD width=56>28 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

tad easier to read the charts

[Spider]

I remember when I first saw D Will play , I said before the year is over he will replace Walls ...... Socal said , he would long before that ;D .......
D Will is just plain Bad ass Corner ..... in some respects he is up there with Champ ( a little coachin from Lynch , Champ, Wilson so far ) Learning on the fly , what he lacks in expierence , he makes up for with instinct , and speed ......

[Northman]

I remember when I first saw D Will play , I said before the year is over he will replace Walls ...... Socal said , he would long before that ;D .......
D Will is just plain Bad ass Corner ..... in some respects he is up there with Champ ( a little coachin from Lynch , Champ, Wilson so far ) Learning on the fly , what he lacks in expierence , he makes up for with instinct , and speed ......


Indeed, i also recall myself ( yes im gloating ) saying Foxy was going to be something special as well. i saw him in numerous games at UMD and he was a great pickup for us. i loved it, just too bad we wasted a pick on Clarett's dumb ass. :nono:

[Spider]

Indeed, i also recall myself ( yes im gloating ) saying Foxy was going to be something special as well. i saw him in numerous games at UMD and he was a great pickup for us. i loved it, just too bad we wasted a pick on Clarett's dumb ass. :nono:
^5 I was on the Shanny cant draft Corners bandwagon for awhile there , D Will on Foxy have put that stupid thought to rest ........

[listopencil]

Indeed, i also recall myself ( yes im gloating ) saying Foxy was going to be something special as well. i saw him in numerous games at UMD and he was a great pickup for us. i loved it, just too bad we wasted a pick on Clarett's dumb ass. :nono:



Karma. We did it to appease The Football Gods and it worked. After getting so much for Droughns and Portis we had to have a RB bust to break the chain of draft ineptitude in the DB category. We paid our price and we got our reward. All hail The Football Gods.

[Bronco Vixen]

he tapes every nfl game and goes through each passing play marking off depth of coverage, openness of wr(3 yards, 5 yards, etc.), and tracks this for each CB and WR, which means that's an awful lot of work. He left them out, I'm assuming, because he hasn't gotten around to breaking them down, which is understandable.

His book is phenomenal if you ever get a chance to glance through it--it's a bit stat-heavy and hard to navigate, but what little of it i've seen is remarkable.

i concur lid..his book was great - extremely refreshing analysis

great article llama - thanks for sharing actual expert analysis for a change as opposed to the absurd yahoo parade (i.e., "expert" picks) we're forced to endure weekly.

i for one have lost all patience with these "sports personalities" that pass themselves off as columnists! you can't tell me that the majority of these foolish fools know as much as the average fan - thanks to the advent of espn, fantasy sports, and of course the brilliant banter that one can only encounter on message boards! :)

[Northman]

Karma. We did it to appease The Football Gods and it worked. After getting so much for Droughns and Portis we had to have a RB bust to break the chain of draft ineptitude in the DB category. We paid our price and we got our reward. All hail The Football Gods.



\m/ :militia:

[Mediator12]

It is amazing that all it takes is KC Joyner to speak it and what I have been saying all along about the secondary is true. The New scheme has been pretty effective overall but brutal in total passing yards. The rookies are playing well, but they are being protected deep by surrendering cheap underneath completions. The great point he makes, they tackle better than most veteran CB's.

The omission of great value here is where are the other 11 receiving TD's. 3 were from PHI where Champ had 1, Westbrook scored on three bad tackles with Ekuban in coverage on a zone blitz, and LJ Smith scored on Darrent Williams. So that adds one to Champ and one to Darrent for eight unaccounted.

Three were from, yes that's right, Lenny Walls in five games. One in MIA, KC, and NE. Ferguson and Brandon both had TE's or H-Backs from WAS. Paymah and others had Jimmy Smith from JAX. Finally, Ferguson had coverage on Mcmichael in MIA.

This says two important things to me. One, No RB has scored a passing TD on the LB's. Two, for all the criticism on John Lynch's coverage ability, or lack thereof, no one has exploited it for a TD in eleven games people. That is incredible scheming and even more important execution.

So, the reality is that the new scheme gives up cheap yardage but less points overall. It is currently the #1 run Defense in the NFL. The only thing that really sucks is the Defensive red Zone pass defense. No INT's, and only one sack all year. If this improves, the scoring defense will improve back into the top 5.

[Bronx33]

It is amazing that all it takes is KC Joyner to speak it and what I have been saying all along about the secondary is true. The New scheme has been pretty effective overall but brutal in total passing yards. The rookies are playing well, but they are being protected deep by surrendering cheap underneath completions. The great point he makes, they tackle better than most veteran CB's.

The omission of great value here is where are the other 11 receiving TD's. 3 were from PHI where Champ had 1, Westbrook scored on three bad tackles with Ekuban in coverage on a zone blitz, and LJ Smith scored on Darrent Williams. So that adds one to Champ and one to Darrent for eight unaccounted.

Three were from, yes that's right, Lenny Walls in five games. One in MIA, KC, and NE. Ferguson and Brandon both had TE's or H-Backs from WAS. Paymah and others had Jimmy Smith from JAX. Finally, Ferguson had coverage on Mcmichael in MIA.

This says two important things to me. One, No RB has scored a passing TD on the LB's. Two, for all the criticism on John Lynch's coverage ability, or lack thereof, no one has exploited it for a TD in eleven games people. That is incredible scheming and even more important execution.

So, the reality is that the new scheme gives up cheap yardage but less points overall. It is currently the #1 run Defense in the NFL. The only thing that really sucks is the Defensive red Zone pass defense. No INT's, and only one sack all year. If this improves, the scoring defense will improve back into the top 5.


Lynch has been quitely affective as has the whole LB core except in the listed dept as you stated hopefully we can fix that somewhat in mulletland this weekend, thanks for the great take mediator.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

That's true, but how often is Lynch matched up with a WR one-on-one? Not often.

[Mediator12]

That's true, but how often is Lynch matched up with a WR one-on-one? Not often.

Uh, yeah. That is called scheme Bob. Do not let the other team match up your worst cover player. That is the point!

[Bob's your Information Minister]

Uh, yeah. That is called scheme Bob. Do not let the other team match up your worst cover player. That is the point!

I wouldn't call that "incredible scheming." I'd call it "making sure your SS is never matched up with a WR."

[Bronx33]

Uh, yeah. That is called scheme Bob. Do not let the other team match up your worst cover player. That is the point!

Bob doesn't get this kind of stuff where your defense plays to it's strengths eliminating odd match ups where you get burned gunther doesn't get it either.

[Mediator12]

I wouldn't call that "incredible scheming." I'd call it "making sure your SS is never matched up with a WR."

First of all, Lynch is a FS in Denver's scheme. And scheme is what dictate's the matchup's. Coyer allows The LB's to play WR's in twin sets on Lynch's side of the field and then he takes the RB instead of the other way around that most Schemes dictate.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

Bob doesn't get this kind of stuff where your defense plays to it's strengths eliminating odd match ups where you get burned gunther doesn't get it either.

Uh, whatever. Our safeties haven't been burned for touchdowns either.

[Kaylore]

I wouldn't call that "incredible scheming." I'd call it "making sure your SS is never matched up with a WR."
Yeah, it's that easy. The other teams that get burned because of those matchups must just have Defensive cordinators that go into commas randomly.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

Yeah, it's that easy. The other teams that get burned because of those matchups must just have Defensive cordinators that go into commas randomly.

Well all I can say is Greg Robinson did some pretty retarded stuff when he was here. I saw Randy Moss get matched up with a safety when GROB was our DC.

[Rock Chalk]

It is amazing that all it takes is KC Joyner to speak it and what I have been saying all along about the secondary is true. The New scheme has been pretty effective overall but brutal in total passing yards. The rookies are playing well, but they are being protected deep by surrendering cheap underneath completions. The great point he makes, they tackle better than most veteran CB's.

The omission of great value here is where are the other 11 receiving TD's. 3 were from PHI where Champ had 1, Westbrook scored on three bad tackles with Ekuban in coverage on a zone blitz, and LJ Smith scored on Darrent Williams. So that adds one to Champ and one to Darrent for eight unaccounted.

Three were from, yes that's right, Lenny Walls in five games. One in MIA, KC, and NE. Ferguson and Brandon both had TE's or H-Backs from WAS. Paymah and others had Jimmy Smith from JAX. Finally, Ferguson had coverage on Mcmichael in MIA.

This says two important things to me. One, No RB has scored a passing TD on the LB's. Two, for all the criticism on John Lynch's coverage ability, or lack thereof, no one has exploited it for a TD in eleven games people. That is incredible scheming and even more important execution.

So, the reality is that the new scheme gives up cheap yardage but less points overall. It is currently the #1 run Defense in the NFL. The only thing that really sucks is the Defensive red Zone pass defense. No INT's, and only one sack all year. If this improves, the scoring defense will improve back into the top 5.

Where ya been? I missed arguing with you.

[dbroncos31]

darrent is the freakin man (just don't buy his jersey. i got one from reebok and it only had DARRENT WILLI on the back. i'm returning it now. damn that blows. it was the only authentic i've ever had and it was amazing. i'm gonna try to get one from the team store at invesco, and i might get smith or someone else.)

[epicSocialism4tw]

I wouldn't call that "incredible scheming." I'd call it "making sure your SS is never matched up with a WR."


Sorry bro, but that's what scheming is. It's taking advantage of matchups.

[jutang]

ESPN was showing highlights of the Dallas game, including the TD toss play from Bledsoe to Keyshawn. After hearing that the touchdown was due to blown coverage I was curious on what exactly happened. Replay showed Bailey in the forefront and in the background you see Lynch running right behind him.

[SoCalBronco]

ESPN was showing highlights of the Dallas game, including the TD toss play from Bledsoe to Keyshawn. After hearing that the touchdown was due to blown coverage I was curious on what exactly happened. Replay showed Bailey in the forefront and in the background you see Lynch running right behind him.

It wasnt blown coverage, it was good playcalling. Sean Payton set us up well. They kept hitting the quick jailbreak screen to the outside WR on us a few times with the inside WR going to the outside at 45 degrees to block the corner. Not surprisingly, Dallas correctly predicted that Denver would adjust to that and that Bailey would recognize the action of the play and then brought out the complementary fake quick screen, and wheel with the other WR. It was a good complementary play off the original play. The action is the same, it looks exactly the same, the WR hitches up and the inside WR is coming at the corner, you think jailbreak screen, I better come down and blow it up and before you know it, that inside WR isnt blocking you even though he is running right at you, its a wheel route. Just good job setting us up and pouncing on our adjustment by Sean Payton, thats all. Nothing was "blown".

[Dagmar]

http://www.profootballweekly.com/NR/rdonlyres/eqvos6h52k6kswumytbbmzvlm6kpf44fmgylptpenzdf7lfyln cklv2jtblegwskceh5pvmt3s2vpp/HOMEPAGESeniorBowlfriday.gif

This lad is gonna have the game of his life on Sunday, I can feel it.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

It wasnt blown coverage, it was good playcalling.

I hope the Chiefs saw that. ;D

[SoCalBronco]

I hope the Chiefs saw that. ;D

They undoubtedly did and they have broke it down to the smallest detail. The amount of opponent film breakdown in the league is just disgusting. Back in high school, I thought our staff was very meticulous. Its probably beyond gross in pro ball. We broke down everything. Start from our 0-20, than field zone, from 20-20, than 20-10, 10-5 and 5-goal, going by down and distance for each yardage area, every down and distance scenario, 1st and 10, 2nd and 7 and longer, 2nd and 4-6, 2nd and 3-1, same with third downs. Than within each down and distance breakdown, their most frequently used formations and then most frequent runs and passes from each, and further breaking it down by which hash and what is the personnel grouping they are using. The goal is always to narrow it down as much as you can so that in every situation, you can be almost completely certain what you will see, and plan accordingly. You want to see a formation in a certain down and distance situation in a certain field area and know exactly what they will do, to the T. You bring it down to 1 or 2 things they will do and be in the perfect offensive or defensive play. I cant imagine how much worse it is in the pros, but it has to be alot more. You can be sure that every opponent sees every single thing you do, even the smallest things that you barely notice when you are watching a game on TV, its dissected to the ninth degree.

[SoCalBronco]

At that point, its just a cat and mouse game. Knowing the opponent's tendencies inside out is necessary but not sufficient. Its just the first step. All that work...and its just the first step. You have to self-scout yourself, very thoroughly, the exact same way. If your an offensive coordinator, you want to compare their defensive tendencies with your offensive tendencies. They arent going to just run their system, at least the smart coaches arent. They are going to run the things in their system that that fits how they see you in particular. So you want to be able to put yourself in the other guy's shoes. Given his own tendencies, among the 4 or 5 things he likes to do in X situation, looking at it from that perspective, looking at the 4 or 5 things I do on my side of the ball in that situation, which one, or two or three of those 5 things he likes to do, would work best against the things I do. That's how you figure out what is going to come on Friday Night, or Saturday, or Sunday, or whenever you play. If 1 or 2 of the 5 things they love to do from film study of their previous games doesnt work well against the stuff you do on the other side of the ball, you can be sure as hell that you wont see those things on gameday despite them having a strong tendency to do them before. You see what his tendencies are, and then look at your own and see what is it that he does already that works on the blackboard against what you are doing, because of the 5 things, thats what your going to see, and conversely you install stuff that will work against that particular play or coverage. You NEVER stop with just analyzing the opponent. You analyze him, than yourself and look at yourself from his perspective, thats how you predict what you will see in the game, not just his tendencies. Its very detail oriented and very tedious. Football is fascinating.

[Dagmar]

How you can be in a state of mind to post that at 130am (1230am for you I guess) on a Friday night amazes me.
I'm pleased I can spell right now.

:alky:

[ludo21]

How you can be in a state of mind to post that at 130am (1230am for you I guess) on a Friday night amazes me.
I'm pleased I can spell right now.

:alky:

ROFL!

SOCal is a beast.!!!

Yeah in high schooll i was like wow, this film stdy is nuts, then just add 2 more levels up to NFL and its probably insane! Football minds are genius, no doubt.

ITs going to be a chess match for sure, but i just hope we stop the run, and run well.

[Bob's your Information Minister]

At that point, its just a cat and mouse game. Knowing the opponent's tendencies inside out is necessary but not sufficient. Its just the first step. All that work...and its just the first step. You have to self-scout yourself, very thoroughly, the exact same way. If your an offensive coordinator, you want to compare their defensive tendencies with your offensive tendencies. They arent going to just run their system, at least the smart coaches arent. They are going to run the things in their system that that fits how they see you in particular. So you want to be able to put yourself in the other guy's shoes. Given his own tendencies, among the 4 or 5 things he likes to do in X situation, looking at it from that perspective, looking at the 4 or 5 things I do on my side of the ball in that situation, which one, or two or three of those 5 things he likes to do, would work best against the things I do. That's how you figure out what is going to come on Friday Night, or Saturday, or Sunday, or whenever you play. If 1 or 2 of the 5 things they love to do from film study of their previous games doesnt work well against the stuff you do on the other side of the ball, you can be sure as hell that you wont see those things on gameday despite them having a strong tendency to do them before. You see what his tendencies are, and then look at your own and see what is it that he does already that works on the blackboard against what you are doing, because of the 5 things, thats what your going to see, and conversely you install stuff that will work against that particular play or coverage. You NEVER stop with just analyzing the opponent. You analyze him, than yourself and look at yourself from his perspective, thats how you predict what you will see in the game, not just his tendencies. Its very detail oriented and very tedious.

That's all true. And then they just throw it up to Moss and you're screwed. ;D

Football is fascinating.

I couldn't tell. ROFL!

[Mediator12]

Where ya been? I missed arguing with you.

School and Work Alec. Finals are in two weeks so I have only a week or so to prepare from here plus two huge papers due. Therefore, less fun arguing with alec. Even though right now there is very little to argue about ;D

[BlitzingDog]

Mediator always won. ;)

[Chris]

KC has to evaluate all of the game tapes each week for his own site plus the ESPN contributions and that's why he likely couldn't do those games.

I'm a subscriber to thefootballscientist.com, his site. I think he's a great analyst and have enjoyed a dialogue with him on several occasions.