Indy drops to #6 in outsiders, denver is now #1

[yavoon]

strength of schedule adjustment.

"Indianapolis had the easiest schedule in the league during the first 10 weeks. They have the hardest schedule in the league during the final seven weeks."

http://msn.foxsports.com/name/public/NFL/PowerRankings

[yavoon]

also denver is #1. shoulda made that the headline now that I thinka bout it.

[Garcia Bronco]

I swear...any other team...and the pressure is on to go undefeated....Indy?...."They're not going to make it. That can't go undefeated."

[Hotrod]

#1 ya that sounds about right to me :homer:

[yavoon]

Prior to the bye week, Minnesota ranked 31st in offensive DVOA. For the five weeks since, they rank sixth, and that includes this week when the offense fell apart against the Giants. If they somehow win at Lambeau, Chicago may start looking over its shoulder. NEXT: at GB

everyone is gna have bad records but the fight to win this division could be awesome. atleast I hope so.

[ludo21]

Jags 2, wow, thats some props there. Altho the Colts did beat them. makes you scratch your head.

Chargers 4, whatever.

I like being number 1, but it means nothing right now.

Call me in Feb, then being number 1 will be good! :thumbs:

[Blart]

DVOA is complete crap, and I hope nobody puts any money on its predictions. Why does it even exist?

Denver was #16 on DVOA when we were 5-1.

Three weeks ago Aaron Shatz of FBO was claiming how great DVOA was, and how it predicted Denver's downfall over the past two years and how again this year it was right, and denver would do the annual 5-2 slide.

Now everyone can see that DVOA is a joke, Indy at #6? Yikes.

[yavoon]

DVOA is complete crap, and I hope nobody puts any money on its predictions. Why does it even exist?

Denver was #16 on DVOA when we were 5-1.

Three weeks ago Aaron Brooks of FBO was claiming how great DVOA was, and how it predicted Denver's downfall over the past two years and how again this year it was right, and denver would do the annual 5-2 slide.

Now everyone can see that DVOA is a joke, Indy at #6? Yikes.

why is dvoa a joke? denver didnt slide and now denver is #1 overall. outsiders has predicted a lot of things. it predicted minnie's fall last year, buffalo's, san diego's and carolina's rise.

all the indy dvoa is saying is they haven't played ANYONE GOOD. if u look at their unadjusted dvoa(doesn't count opponent strength) indy is infact #1.

course I know its a huge strain to think about these things.

[Bronx33]

How the he11 is this concidered hard? for the final seven?


Nov 20 @Cincinnati
Nov 28 Pittsburgh
Dec 4 Tennessee
Dec 11 @Jacksonville
Dec 18 San Diego
Dec 24 @Seattle
Jan 1 Arizona

[epicSocialism4tw]

I guess that he can override his statistics for the Colts alone. I guess that he isnt too impressed with his methods right now either.

[yavoon]

How the he11 is this concidered hard? for the final seven?


Nov 20 @Cincinnati
Nov 28 Pittsburgh
Dec 4 Tennessee
Dec 11 @Jacksonville
Dec 18 San Diego
Dec 24 @Seattle
Jan 1 Arizona

#3,#4,#5,#7,#27,#28. not in order.

[Blart]

course I know its a huge strain to think about these things
Reading Aaron Schatz's apologies for his crappy system every week and considering them your own doesn't mean you have any brains at all.

The fact is, DVOA had Denver listed at #16 when they were at 5 and 1. Let me repeat that:
Denver was ranked #16 when they were 5 and 1.

ESPN, Sports Illustrated, even local papers had Broncos placed in the top 5 after their 5-1 start. Why? Because humans can recognize potential, while a stats machine can't.

Aaron Schatz defended his faulty system back then, much like he is right now with Indy.

My point is: DVOA is consistently wrong. Why else would Aaron Schatz need to write a damned novel every week apologizing for his system? Since it's always wrong, why have it at all? No sane person would use it for betting or predicting, which is the whole point of power rankings. If you used it to bet on the Broncos this year, you'd be broke, and if you used it to pick winners at the office, your co-workers would think you've never watched a game.

[yavoon]

I guess that he can override his statistics for the Colts alone. I guess that he isnt too impressed with his methods right now either.

this is actually common in statistics. because u design for the majority of situations extraordinary situations by in large fall out of ur grasp. many equations ppl use to build real things follow this rule.

its just how life is. a person using a non-rigorous technique could have just fudged their answer to not make it look bad. but then their methods would goto ****.

really read the explanation, indy is NUMBER ONE IN UNADJUSTED DVOA.

[Tw0mey]

Ha, reminds me of the BCS when the champs were put to number to. Indy's undefeated, they are on top until they lose, twice. Haha.

[Bronx33]

#3,#4,#5,#7,#27,#28. not in order.

The hard ones are @ home with two being hard IMO being away, the stick stated (They have the hardest schedule in the league during the final seven weeks) in his reasoning and throwing the firechickens in that group.

[yavoon]

Reading Aaron Schatz's apologies for his crappy system every week and considering them your own doesn't mean you have any brains at all.

The fact is, DVOA had Denver listed at #16 when they were at 5 and 1. Let me repeat that:
Denver was ranked #16 when they were 5 and 1.

ESPN, Sports Illustrated, even local papers had Broncos placed in the top 5 after their 5-1 start. Why? Because humans can recognize potential, while a stats machine can't.

Aaron Schatz defended his faulty system back then, much like he is right now with Indy.

My point is: DVOA is consistently wrong. Why else would Aaron Schatz need to write a damned novel every week apologizing for his system? Since it's always wrong, why have it at all?

no its not because humans can recognize potential? wth are u even talking about? potential in a 5-1 team? what potential, they're 5-1! all other power rankings are BY AND LARGE descending order of record. it slips around a little but thats it. they aren't predictive, u might as well print out the records of the teams, it'd be just as informative.

what he is doing is telling u why things occur, its not defending of the system. see this is all very novel to the complete ****ing retards that are football fans because its not subjective. u guys are use to throwing bull**** at each other w/ no accountability, changing ur tune as fast as u please and being as arrogant as u please. this happens in statistics.

god I liked it so much better when this site wasn't on fox and retards w/ zero knowledge or intelligence weren't invading.

[epicSocialism4tw]

this is actually common in statistics. because u design for the majority of situations extraordinary situations by in large fall out of ur grasp. many equations ppl use to build real things follow this rule.

its just how life is. a person using a non-rigorous technique could have just fudged their answer to not make it look bad. but then their methods would goto ****.

really read the explanation, indy is NUMBER ONE IN UNADJUSTED DVOA.

I understand his reasoning, but I was commenting on his willingness to ignore his own standards for Denver earlier in the season to allow Indy to sit at athe top (at least aesthetically) of his rankings.

[yavoon]

The hard ones are @ home with two being hard IMO being away, the stick stated (They have the hardest schedule in the league during the final seven weeks) in his reasoning.

so everyone here was doggy humping denver's schedule because they played a 5-4 patriots and a 4-5 eagles team? and both of those at home.

[yavoon]

I understand his reasoning, but I was commenting on his willingness to ignore his own standards for Denver earlier in the season to allow Indy to sit at athe top (at least aesthetically) of his rankings.

yah I dont like that, but denver still is #1. he didnt change their rank he probably was scared by the atlanta thing. basically atlanta was ranked low and the retard fans spammed his site's dvoa thread to over 600 responses of trash. he's probably trying to not let indy do that. I dont blame him, it wasted a lot of what in some other year would have been good discussion.

[Bronx33]

so everyone here was doggy humping denver's schedule because they played a 5-4 patriots and a 4-5 eagles team? and both of those at home.

Iam just tired of the adjustable arse kissing for the dolts.......

[Blart]

really read the explanation, indy is NUMBER ONE IN UNADJUSTED DVOA.
So what? Denver is #8 in unadjusted DVOA, below the Jaguars who we beat on the road! DVOA is a horrible system, and if you use it for any practical purpose (betting, predicting) you will lose.

Again, why does DVOA exist? Aside from encouraging flames on messageboards.

god I liked it so much better when this site wasn't on fox and retards w/ zero knowledge or intelligence weren't invading.
Then leave. I know some great forums at footballoutsiders where you can hang out with your hyper-intelligent buddies who understand the intricacies of DVOA, the most accurate ranking system ever created.

[yavoon]

So what? Denver is #8 in unadjusted DVOA, below the Jaguars who we beat on the road! DVOA is a horrible system, and if you use it for any practical purpose (betting, predicting) you will lose.

Again, why does DVOA exist?

actually u will win. but thats besides the point. ur a retard,u haven't read up on dvoa. all u do is look "omg denver is 5-1 this site sees the potential of a 5-1 team!" hahahahahahaha, potential of a 5-1 team. god.

[Bronx33]

I really don't give ratz arse about rankings to begin with just ask KC, what irks me is the stupid reasoning they write to justify their ignorant claims.

[yavoon]

I really don't give ratz arse about rankings to begin with just ask KC, what irks me is the stupid reasoning they write to justify their ignorant claims.

u mean to explain why the rankings occured? yah thats horrible. btw the falcons bitched for an entire week about their ranking and then promptly lost to green bay at home.

[Rock Chalk]

Prior to the bye week, Minnesota ranked 31st in offensive DVOA. For the five weeks since, they rank sixth, and that includes this week when the offense fell apart against the Giants. If they somehow win at Lambeau, Chicago may start looking over its shoulder. NEXT: at GB

everyone is gna have bad records but the fight to win this division could be awesome. atleast I hope so.
Yeah, but you know that division is almost always a good fight to the end.

[Blart]

actually u will win. but thats besides the point. ur a retard,u haven't read up on dvoa.
Alright, if you'd used DVOA to bet on the broncos, you'd have lost money on the following games:

Miami
San diego
Kansas City
Jacksonville
Washington
New England
Philadelphia

You'd have won money on
NY Giants
Oakland

Thanks DVOA, I just lost seven bets out of nine!

If you'd used ESPN's, USA Today, or your local paper's rankings when betting on Broncos games, you'd have won 6 and lost 3.

I keep asking why DVOA exists, and yavoon keeps stating "it's BASED ON STATS!!!"

Yes yavoon, I know. It's also based on previous season records (to a degree), yardage, opponent strength, as well as a million other things. My question is why?

Anyone at Orangemane, even yavoon, could create a rankings system based on stats. But if it fails at predicting the best teams and the worst teams, why does it exist?

[Merlin]

Yavoon knows I have been critical in the past regarding some of the weighting being used by FO, but to totally dismiss them is just totally ignorant. The author has obviously put a lot of careful thought into the process, and it is perhaps the best (overall) statistical analysis of football out there at the moment. Is the system perfect? Of course not. There was something wrong with the weights that was totally confounding its assessment of Denver when it was 5-1 (especially when you considered that dropping the loss to Miami did not improve Denver's placing much). That being said, it is still far superior to anything out there. Look at their analysis of offenses, defenses, and individual positions. There is a lot to be said for the site, but like all things human, it will never be perfect.

[Bronx33]

Alright, if you'd used DVOA to bet on the broncos, you'd have lost money on the following games:

Miami
San diego
Kansas City
Jacksonville
Washington
New England
Philadelphia

You'd have won money on
NY Giants
Oakland

Thanks DVOA, I just lost seven bets out of nine!

If you'd used ESPN's, USA Today, or your local paper's rankings when betting on Broncos games, you'd have won 6 and lost 3.

I keep asking why DVOA exists, and yavoon keeps stating "it's BASED ON STATS!!!"

Yes yavoon, I know. It's also based on previous season records (to a degree), yardage, opponent strength, as well as a million other things. My question is why?

Anyone at Orangemane, even yavoon, could create a rankings system based on stats. But if it fails at predicting the best teams and the worst teams, why does it exist?


Great point! and that's how i see it, the over all numbers don't mean squat! come game time mistakes (which can't be predicted) and TDs do.

[yavoon]

Yes yavoon, I know. It's also based on previous season records (to a degree), yardage, opponent strength, as well as a million other things. My question is why?

Anyone at Orangemane, even yavoon, could create a rankings system based on stats. But if it fails at predicting the best teams and the worst teams, why does it exist?

no not everyone can create dvoa. infact u can't. and it would take me a very long time. once again, u dont even know what dvoa is.....

I've also made many many posts about things that dvoa has caught and predicted. usually about unusual things(teams falling or rising). but the mundane counts as well. dvoa predicted the eagles and patriots to meet in the superbowl and the pats to win. they predicted the falcons to get to the champ game, then lose. that happened. they predicted the steelers to lose, as well as the colts, both happened.

[yavoon]

Yavoon knows I have been critical in the past regarding some of the weighting being used by FO, but to totally dismiss them is just totally ignorant. The author has obviously put a lot of careful thought into the process, and it is perhaps the best (overall) statistical analysis of football out there at the moment. Is the system perfect? Of course not. There was something wrong with the weights that was totally confounding its assessment of Denver when it was 5-1 (especially when you considered that dropping the loss to Miami did not improve Denver's placing much). That being said, it is still far superior to anything out there. Look at their analysis of offenses, defenses, and individual positions. There is a lot to be said for the site, but like all things human, it will never be perfect.

every week there is a team w/ a lot of wins low in dvoa. it just stopped being denver. there is a saying in statistics, u should get two things, mostly what u expect, and some that u dont. if its completely topsy tervy it makes u skittish to move forward, but on the other hand if it just reiterated "conventional wisdom" or in this case ranking the teams in descending order of wins. it would be completely useless and redundant.

[Blart]

There was something wrong with the weights that was totally confounding its assessment of Denver when it was 5-1.
But instead of admitting a fault in the system, Schutz made it sound like Denver deserved that spot because they were in for another 5-2 slide. Both he and DVOA were wrong.

I understand Aaron put a lot of thought and time into the DVOA statistical method, but that doesn't make it anything more than a curiosity. It's fun to look at and to argue about, but no sane person would use it to bet Cinci and Jacksonville beat Indianopolis.



I personally believe Denver deserves #1, and Indy deserves #3 or #4, but considering how wildly DVOA flip-flops, it doesn't reinforce my beliefs one bit.

[yavoon]

[/B]

Great point! and that's how i see it, the over all numbers don't mean squat! come game time mistakes (which can't be predicted) and TDs do.

u obviously do not even understand the purpose or nature of statistics, go color in the lines.

[yavoon]

But instead of admitting a fault in the system, Schutz made it sound like Denver deserved that spot because they were in for another 5-2 slide. Both he and DVOA were wrong.

I understand Aaron put a lot of thought and time into the DVOA statistical method, but that doesn't make it anything more than a curiosity. It's fun to look at and to argue about, but no sane person would use it to bet Cinci and Jacksonville beat Indianopolis.

its not a fault in the system, its the nature of statistics, ur just too stupid to see that.

[Bronx33]

u obviously do not even understand the purpose or nature of statistics, go color in the lines.

And you color outside the lines....kinda sloppy if you ask me.

[yavoon]

And you color outside the lines....kinda sloppy if you ask me.

yah well coloring inside the lines never advanced anyone's knowledge. unless of course ur too uncoordinated to do it in the first place.

[Bronx33]

yah well coloring inside the lines never advanced anyone's knowledge. unless of course ur too uncoordinated to do it in the first place.

Can you fit your fist in your mouth? if you haven't tried please do, your word is not god ok and neither is mine so please don't pretend yours is.

[Elway 4 Life]

yah well coloring inside the lines never advanced anyone's knowledge. unless of course ur too uncoordinated to do it in the first place.

I think I've got it figured out. You grew up getting your arse kicked everyday because you were a smartmouth punk that hides behind his knowledge of unimportant things. Do us all a favor and shut the **** up.

[Blart]

its not a fault in the system, its the nature of statistics, ur just too stupid to see that.

http://www.notacult.com/messageboard/missed.jpg

[Pezman]

God, I get such a headache reading yav's threads sometimes... kind of like when I get a headache reading any tripe from Foxsports.com.

Here, ill translate this for yavoon speak for everyone.

ppl, foxsprots is teh lame n u r all needing som beter stuff too topsy tervy about

[yavoon]

Can you fit your fist in your mouth? if you haven't tried please do, your word is not god ok and neither is mine so please don't pretend yours is.

my word doesn't need to be god for urs to be childish and uneducated.

[yavoon]

http://www.notacult.com/messageboard/missed.jpg

no, u'd understand it if u could. u just can't.

[Bronx33]

my word doesn't need to be god for urs to be childish and uneducated.

Now i know why everybody conciders you to be an arse..8')

[Merlin]

It's fun to look at and to argue about, but no sane person would use it to bet Cinci and Jacksonville beat Indianopolis.
Statistics gives you insights into probabilities; it will rarely provide evidence of absolute predictability. Just because it cannot predict the winner of Indy Natty game does not make it just a fun topic. Its value comes from its analysis of the whole. FO analysis provides very good insight into the whole, and provides a very good (when given enough data) idea of probable trends. Look at their analysis of Denver's D and O, and then look at the NFL's. Tell me which is the more accurate depiction of Denver? Which provides a better understanding of how the team performs under game conditions? Is it perfect? No. Can it be used to make absolute predictions? No. But if that is your expectation of stats, then you need to read a little more on the subject.

[DomCasual]

why is dvoa a joke? denver didnt slide and now denver is #1 overall. outsiders has predicted a lot of things. it predicted minnie's fall last year, buffalo's, san diego's and carolina's rise.

all the indy dvoa is saying is they haven't played ANYONE GOOD. if u look at their unadjusted dvoa(doesn't count opponent strength) indy is infact #1.

course I know its a huge strain to think about these things.
Dude, you like DVOA. We get it.

Seriously, I appreciate your posting the information about it. But you get worked up everytime someone utters a negative word about it. It's as if someone says, "DVOA sucks," and you read, "yavoon's mother sucks." It's bizarre, man.

Count me among the ones that think DVOA, while interesting, is not very accurate. The whole "fumble recoveries are based upon luck" thing is the poster issue that makes me discount everything else about it. The fact that in a matter of a few weeks, the Broncos could go from #16 (or whatever it was) to #1, while losing to the Giants and beating a beat-up Eagles team and a really bad Raiders team is something I'll add to my "DVOA lack of credibility" list.

[Elway 4 Life]

Statistics gives you insights into probabilities; it will rarely provide evidence of absolute predictability. Just because it cannot predict the winner of Indy Natty game does not make it just a fun topic. Its value comes from its analysis of the whole. FO analysis provides very good insight into the whole, and provides a very good (when given enough data) idea of probable trends. Look at their analysis of Denver's D and O, and then look at the NFL's. Tell me which is the more accurate depiction of Denver? Which provides a better understanding of how the team performs under game conditions? Is it perfect? No. Can it be used to make absolute predictions? No. But if that is your expectation of stats, then you need to read a little more on the subject.

I understand statistics, the problem I have is that it leaves out all the emotion involved with the players. It's an emotional game and not really about math.

[DomCasual]

u obviously do not even understand the purpose or nature of statistics, go color in the lines.
You are sure smug for a guy that doesn't make the effort to spell or use proper grammar.

I know what you have said about it before, and that is fine. If you weren't so damned pretentious about your opinion, it would be a heck of a lot easier to look past the fact that you write like a 3rd grader from the 'hood. But when you come in treating everyone that disagrees with you as if they are somehow below you, and you do while writing like you do, well...it just seems ironic.

[yavoon]

Now i know why everybody conciders you to be an arse..8')

sure, ur still wrong and dumb.

[Jason in LA]

How the he11 is this concidered hard? for the final seven?


Nov 20 @Cincinnati
Nov 28 Pittsburgh
Dec 4 Tennessee
Dec 11 @Jacksonville
Dec 18 San Diego
Dec 24 @Seattle
Jan 1 Arizona

Five of those teams are going to be fighting for a playoff spot late in the season. Four of them probably will make it.

[Blart]

Statistics gives you insights into probabilities; it will rarely provide evidence of absolute predictability. Just because it cannot predict the winner of Indy Natty game does not make it just a fun topic. Its value comes from its analysis of the whole. FO analysis provides very good insight into the whole, and provides a very good (when given enough data) idea of probable trends. Look at their analysis of Denver's D and O, and then look at the NFL's. Tell me which is the more accurate depiction of Denver? Which provides a better understanding of how the team performs under game conditions? Is it perfect? No.
Thank you for taking the time to understand my question and answer it.

One thing though:

Does it work? Absolutely. The only stat that is a more accurate indicator of how many wins a team will have is points scored and allowed. And DVOA is more consistent from year to year than points or yards.

That's where I get the idea that it was made to be a great predictor of games. For this season, you'd be better off with pure points.

[yavoon]

You are sure smug for a guy that doesn't make the effort to spell or use proper grammar.

I know what you have said about it before, and that is fine. If you weren't so damned pretentious about your opinion, it would be a heck of a lot easier to look past the fact that you write like a 3rd grader from the 'hood. But when you come in treating everyone that disagrees with you as if they are somehow below you, and you do while writing like you do, well...it just seems ironic.

yah I've been very patient w/ explaining statistics for quite a long time. u guys flame each other constantly on this forum. am I just so much better at flaming that when I do it everyone has to point it out?

I get ridiculed regularly and yet when I do any of it back there's a sudden bloom of **** posts like this.

yah I use abbreviations that makes everything I say wrong. good job.

[Merlin]

I understand statistics, the problem I have is that it leaves out all the emotion involved with the players. It's an emotional game and not really about math.
Emotions is but one of many factors. Accordingly, an analysis can still be good even if it excludes it. However, you are right that it would be nice if we could use a variable to gauge (which we cannot). But that does not in itself discount statistical analysis. The latter is still an incredibly valuable tool. There is a lot more math than there is emotion in football and most other human endeavors. However, it would have been virtually impossible for any statistical analysis to predict the NYG-Washington game (where emotion was obviously a strong factor).

[Bronx33]

sure, ur still wrong and dumb.

Respond to blart and merlin a-hole...

[yavoon]

I understand statistics, the problem I have is that it leaves out all the emotion involved with the players. It's an emotional game and not really about math.

sure maybe we should rank teams based on emotion. ray lewis has a lot, the ravens should be #1.

u HAVE TO quantify things to rank ppl. even if u do it in the murky depths or ur head w/ no consistant rationale. if u want to count emotion it needs a value, a weight. even if that weight is ever changing, useless and exists only in ur head it still needs one.

[Blart]

DVOA gives you more to argue about, but as far as predicting games statistically, I'd rather put my money on Sagarin's pure points.
http://www.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nfl05.htm

[DomCasual]

yah I've been very patient w/ explaining statistics for quite a long time. u guys flame each other constantly on this forum. am I just so much better at flaming that when I do it everyone has to point it out?

I get ridiculed regularly and yet when I do any of it back there's a sudden bloom of **** posts like this.

yah I use abbreviations that makes everything I say wrong. good job.
I actually have always assumed you to be very intelligent. But you come in throwing stones like a madman over this issue, and you open yourself up to having them thrown back. And it's not as if you just say, "I disagree." It is more like, "I disagree. You don't understand, because you're an imbecile."

I feel I have sound reasons for doubting the credibility of DVOA. I am not ignorant, or a simpleton for having them.

[Elway 4 Life]

sure maybe we should rank teams based on emotion. ray lewis has a lot, the ravens should be #1.

u HAVE TO quantify things to rank ppl. even if u do it in the murky depths or ur head w/ no consistant rationale. if u want to count emotion it needs a value, a weight. even if that weight is ever changing, useless and exists only in ur head it still needs one.

You are an ***hole. I'm just saying that you cant equate the human factor in the dvoa. Do you seriously think that emotion plays no factor in a game? Emotion only needs a value or a weight in your little math boy equation. Did the dvoa predict that the giants would hand the redskins there ass after there owner died. No Emotion in that game.

[yavoon]

I actually have always assumed you to be very intelligent. But you come in throwing stones like a madman over this issue, and you open yourself up to having them thrown back. And it's not as if you just say, "I disagree." It is more like, "I disagree. You don't understand, because you're an imbecile."

I feel I have sound reasons for doubting the credibility of DVOA. I am not ignorant, or a simpleton for having them.

haha come in throwing stones? I dont open myself up to them being thrown back, they get thrown over outsiders constantly. I've IMO been very dilligent in explaining things and stuff.

what kind of retort do they deserve for "outsiders sucks, they know nothing LOZL." its not like they are making some argument based on anything but rampant opinion and lack of information.

[yavoon]

You are an ***hole. I'm just saying that you cant equate the human factor in the dvoa. Do you seriously think that emotion plays no factor in a game? Emotion only needs a value or a weight in your little math boy equation. Did the dvoa predict that the giants would hand the redskins there ass after there owner died. No Emotion in that game.

like I said, if u want to count emotion and u want to have a RANKING u need to give it a value. even if its foggy and u guess and ur not sure what the value really is. IF AT THE END THE TEAMS ARE RANKED THEN IT HAD TO HAVE A VALUE.

[Bronx33]

You are an ***hole. I'm just saying that you cant equate the human factor in the dvoa. Do you seriously think that emotion plays no factor in a game? Emotion only needs a value or a weight in your little math boy equation. Did the dvoa predict that the giants would hand the redskins there ass after there owner died. No Emotion in that game.


Also answer Elway 4 Life yavoon you singled me out now iam singling you out..............

[yavoon]

Also answer Elway 4 Life yavoon you singled me out now iam singling you out..............

already answered. infact the post above ur reply! shift eyes upward.

[Elway 4 Life]

like I said, if u want to count emotion and u want to have a RANKING u need to give it a value. even if its foggy and u guess and ur not sure what the value really is. IF AT THE END THE TEAMS ARE RANKED THEN IT HAD TO HAVE A VALUE.

I dont really give a **** about the rankings. I just want my team to win every damn game. I could care less about the value of this or that.

I think your an ***hole. Put a value on that.

[yavoon]

I dont really give a **** about the rankings. I just want my team to win every damn game. I could care less about the value of this or that.

I think your an ***hole. Put a value on that.

well then ur in the wrong thread. kinda like wondering into a football stadium telling everyone u just wanted to watch synchronized swimming.

[Elway 4 Life]

well then ur in the wrong thread. kinda like wondering into a football stadium telling everyone u just wanted to watch synchronized swimming.

So your a swimmer!!!:thumbsup:

[GonzoLays]

no its not because humans can recognize potential? wth are u even talking about? potential in a 5-1 team? what potential, they're 5-1! all other power rankings are BY AND LARGE descending order of record. it slips around a little but thats it. they aren't predictive, u might as well print out the records of the teams, it'd be just as informative.

what he is doing is telling u why things occur, its not defending of the system. see this is all very novel to the complete ****ing retards that are football fans because its not subjective. u guys are use to throwing bull**** at each other w/ no accountability, changing ur tune as fast as u please and being as arrogant as u please. this happens in statistics.

god I liked it so much better when this site wasn't on fox and retards w/ zero knowledge or intelligence weren't invading.


http://re2.mm-a1.yimg.com/image/309378594

WHAAAAAAA!!! I want people to like DVOA. WHAAAAA!!!!!!

[yavoon]

http://re2.mm-a1.yimg.com/image/309378594

WHAAAAAAA!!! I want people to like DVOA. WHAAAAA!!!!!!

hey its not me who brings up these weird meta arguments. I'll argue straight about dvoa. I just always get pelted w/ these "ur a meanie" things.

[Elway 4 Life]

hey its not me who brings up these weird meta arguments. I'll argue straight about dvoa. I just always get pelted w/ these "ur a meanie" things.

No not your a meanie, your an ***hole. Get it right!

[Pat Bowlen]

It's too bad yavoon chooses to type so poorly and act so right all the time. I like his opinions and agree with him occasionally, but that kind of stuff turns people off.

[Bronx33]

No not your a meanie, your an ***hole. Get it right!

Maybe we need to determine is hes an a-hole statistically so he will understand, with no other variables what so ever and see if he agrees with the outcome.

[Broncoman13]

How the he11 is this concidered hard? for the final seven?


Nov 20 @Cincinnati
Nov 28 Pittsburgh
Dec 4 Tennessee
Dec 11 @Jacksonville
Dec 18 San Diego
Dec 24 @Seattle
Jan 1 Arizona


For the record I think DVOA is worthless, but that schedule is TOUGH!
Cincy 7-2, Pitt 7-2, Jax 6-3, SD 5-4 and a much better team than their record indicates, and Seattle 7-2. If that team goes undefeated they will have been battle tested when it's all said and done! Plain and simple, I'm glad we don't have that schedule to closeout the season!

[Dukes]

Wow after 3 pages of discussion I couldn't even find out what DVOA means. Ha! And just for the record, I just really hate acronyms

[yavoon]

Wow after 3 pages of discussion I couldn't even find out what DVOA means. Ha! And just for the record, I just really hate acronyms

"The FOXSports.com Power Rankings are based on the innovative DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings from FootballOutsiders.com. The DVOA system breaks down every single play of the season and compares each one to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. Each play is judged on both total yards and yards towards a first down."

[Dukes]

"The FOXSports.com Power Rankings are based on the innovative DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) ratings from FootballOutsiders.com. The DVOA system breaks down every single play of the season and compares each one to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. Each play is judged on both total yards and yards towards a first down."

Gotcha, ok well on with the pissing contest! Hilarious! Its entertaining

[yavoon]

Gotcha, ok well on with the pissing contest! Hilarious! Its entertaining

:).

[Lidderer]

It's too bad yavoon chooses to type so poorly and act so right all the time. I like his opinions and agree with him occasionally, but that kind of stuff turns people off.


These are all things I like about yavoon. Guy's killing in this thread.

[Blart]

yavoon in this thread: "guys DVOA is based on stats! DVOA is based on stats, you suck you are morons, and DVOA is based on stats! Did I mention DVOA is based on stats? you are morons and idiots and not based on stats."

[Lidderer]

yavoon in this thread: "guys DVOA is based on stats! DVOA is based on stats, you suck you are morons, and DVOA is based on stats! Did I mention DVOA is based on stats? you are morons and idiots and not based on stats."

blart: adjusted LoLVOA: -46.7

[Bronx33]

For the record I think DVOA is worthless, but that schedule is TOUGH!
Cincy 7-2, Pitt 7-2, Jax 6-3, SD 5-4 and a much better team than their record indicates, and Seattle 7-2. If that team goes undefeated they will have been battle tested when it's all said and done! Plain and simple, I'm glad we don't have that schedule to closeout the season!


I also stated that the 2 away games cincy and seachickens were tough and the home games were a massive help to a team already handed a cake scedule.Pitt will have batch at QB or a 75% roth at QB, tennesee at home easy, jacksonville easy, eggo @ home easy, the fire chickens @ home where peyten doesn't even play, easy.

[Merlin]

Does it work? Absolutely. The only stat that is a more accurate indicator of how many wins a team will have is points scored and allowed. And DVOA is more consistent from year to year than points or yards.

That's where I get the idea that it was made to be a great predictor of games. For this season, you'd be better off with pure points.
FO are dealing in probabilities. Based on the data they are predicting a certain number of wins for the yr, but they are not telling you which games they will win. That is, based on their play thus far, and how that particular level of play has led to this number of wins, then they are saying it is highly probable the team will win x number of games. Their predictions are grounded on probabilities. These probabilities have a particular level of significance (how strong a predictor value they have), but they are not absolute. For arguments sake we could say in 9 out of 10 cases they will be right.

PS if your purpose is for betting, then you are better off using their predictions for total games won rather than a particular game; i.e. statistics usually works better when speaking in generalities as opposed to specifics.

[Rock Chalk]

How the he11 is this concidered hard? for the final seven?


Nov 20 @Cincinnati
Nov 28 Pittsburgh
Dec 4 Tennessee
Dec 11 @Jacksonville
Dec 18 San Diego
Dec 24 @Seattle
Jan 1 Arizona
Well, Pittsburg, Cincy, Jacksonville, San Diego and Seattle are are pretty good teams, with winning records. ALL of those games are potential losses for the Colts because everyone of those teams has a team capable of beating the Colts.

The Colts are undefeated, but that does not make them unstoppable. Jacksonville is finally clicking after holding the mighty Colts to 10 points in their first encounter....IN the dome. Cincy has the weapons to get into a shootout with the Colts and while their defense has done OK against inferior teams, against even marginal offenses they have shown some weakness. Pittsburg is a strong defensive team that makes a lot of plays and their running game is hard for anyone to stop, much less a speedy line like Indy's who can be forced to overpursue. Then you know, there is the Tomlinson factor against San Diego and say what you will about their suspect defense, that guy will put the scare into anyone. Let's not forget Seattle and Shaun Alexander. This guy is a touchdown machine this year. Indy is not likely to win that, if they are even playing their starters at that point.

They could go 11-5 to finish the season, but then they could run the table. Odds are it will be 13-3 or 14-2 is my guess.

[watermock]

You can make the Iraq war look good if you choose the right stats...

The fact of the matter is the NFL if full of intangibles left, right and center, and if you don't watch your back, the coach goes down...raw stats are so flawed it laughable, and I don't even know the parameters they use, or Sangarin for that matter....The stone cold fact is we have a game against the Jets we should win before we go on a rather brutal road trip...I suggest everying STFU about INDY and worry about the Jets and then playing 3 of 4 on the road.

Indy doesn't mean anything till we play them...we all know they continue to play a cupcake schedule designed by the NFL to get PayaTon to the SB...Did Indy have to go to Miami in the heat? Will they travel to KC and Buffalo in December? Did they play both Philly and New England?

The only thing to worry about is the Jets and getting ready for Dallas on the road on a short week...that's it...

When I saw our schedule I crapped my pants and thought 10-6, but we are holding home court just like I said we had to...the Jets are just another example, and another AFC team so it's important to win...

The Jets are not playing very well and should roll over if we get on them early, but like any NFL team, if you let them hang around, they have the ability to bite you in the ass.

I recommend we stop worry about Indy and start worrying about the Jets. And Dallas on the road on a short week. Let the talking heads give Peyton blowjobs...it's not going to change a thing....

[Bronx33]

Well, Pittsburg, Cincy, Jacksonville, San Diego and Seattle are are pretty good teams, with winning records. ALL of those games are potential losses for the Colts because everyone of those teams has a team capable of beating the Colts.

The Colts are undefeated, but that does not make them unstoppable. Jacksonville is finally clicking after holding the mighty Colts to 10 points in their first encounter....IN the dome. Cincy has the weapons to get into a shootout with the Colts and while their defense has done OK against inferior teams, against even marginal offenses they have shown some weakness. Pittsburg is a strong defensive team that makes a lot of plays and their running game is hard for anyone to stop, much less a speedy line like Indy's who can be forced to overpursue. Then you know, there is the Tomlinson factor against San Diego and say what you will about their suspect defense, that guy will put the scare into anyone. Let's not forget Seattle and Shaun Alexander. This guy is a touchdown machine this year. Indy is not likely to win that, if they are even playing their starters at that point.

They could go 11-5 to finish the season, but then they could run the table. Odds are it will be 13-3 or 14-2 is my guess.

Good take and i can respect that, some folks see winning records as a major factor in determining a win, i tend to look at the team and how they match up and iam hoping the dolts have a meltdown on a few games down the stretch. I just don't see them doing that though (but iam hoping) and to tell you the truth i want to smash the dolts SB dreams in one game to wipe the slate clean for past years.

[Pat Bowlen]

These are all things I like about yavoon. Guy's killing in this thread.
Yeah, but Blart's making it pretty damn easy for him.

[DomCasual]

Okay, explain this to me.

After week six, the Broncos were #12 in Outsiders Power Rankings. Since then, they have lost to the Giants (who lost a brutal game to the Vikings at home), they've beaten the Eagles (who have now lost three in a row, and look to be imploding), and have beaten the Raiders (simply not a good team, and losers of two in a row). So, from the time they were #12, the Broncos are 2-1, yet they have jumped ELEVEN PLACES in the Power Rankings. The Seahawks are 3-0 in that time, and they have only moved up two spots.

That just doesn't make sense.

Statistics are great, and they should be used in Power Rankings. However, they're not the end-all and be-all of the rankings. At the end of the day, the way that you choose to use the statistics themselves is arbitrary - as subjective as any opinion. Which statistics do you use? How far back to you analyze? It's all subjective.

It's fine to use them as a basis of your argument. But you use them as the basis for your argument (and the only basis, as best I can tell). That is every bit as ignorant as not using them at all. And calling someone stupid for not agreeing with you is also stupid, and indicative of youth.

[Pat Bowlen]

calling someone stupid for not agreeing with you is also stupid
Deep thought of the day.

[DomCasual]

These are all things I like about yavoon. Guy's killing in this thread.
This is your quote from a month ago regarding the Outsiders' Rankings:
I've been frequenting their site for the last 2 years and am probably the biggest proponent of F.O. on this board aside from (yavoon).
You're about as impartial regarding yavoon "killing in this thread" as blart is about yavoon being a moron.

At the end of the day, it's all subjective. I will agree that stats themselves are not subjective. But how you use them, and which you choose to use, most certainly is.

[DomCasual]

Deep thought of the day.
Why thank you, Chief. You can start calling me Jack Handey.

[Lidderer]

This is your quote from a month ago regarding the Outsiders' Rankings:

You're about as impartial regarding yavoon "killing in this thread" as blart is about yavoon being a moron.


BUSTED! I have opinions.

[DomCasual]

BUSTED! I have opinions...
...which is not allowed. You bastard.

[footstepsfrom#27]

These computer models are digital gibberish. I place no value on any of that stuff...only on what gets done on the field.

[Lidderer]

These computer models are digital gibberish. I place no value on any of that stuff...only on what gets done on the field.

funny, that's just what these wacky computerlators do

[Pat Bowlen]

funny, that's just what these wacky computerlators do
Anytime I have a question I just call up Johnny 5.

[fontaine]

what he is doing is telling u why things occur, its not defending of the system. see this is all very novel to the complete ****ing retards that are football fans because its not subjective. u guys are use to throwing bull**** at each other w/ no accountability, changing ur tune as fast as u please and being as arrogant as u please. this happens in statistics.

god I liked it so much better when this site wasn't on fox and retards w/ zero knowledge or intelligence weren't invading.

Settle down. The people that came up with the ranking system in FootballOutsiders also change and tweak their system (like recently where they gave less weight to early season games) constantly so it's every bit as subjective and prone to fault as the person creating it.

[yavoon]

just found this while reading for u guys:

According to Sean McCormick’s guest column, “The Evolving Predictive Powers of DVOA”, in 2003, picking winners based on relative DVOA won 59% of the time (compared to 50% for a “pickum”). In 2004, after the DVOA formula was updated, picking winners based on relative DVOA won 67% of the time.

[yavoon]

Settle down. The people that came up with the ranking system in FootballOutsiders also change and tweak their system (like recently where they gave less weight to early season games) constantly so it's every bit as subjective and prone to fault as the person creating it.

it changes, and certainly some changes could be important in terms of shoring up situations dvoa is less good at handling. but none of the changes are radical. it still basically does its thing, get every play, compare every play to the plays made by ur team and get a value over average rating.

[yavoon]

Okay, explain this to me.

After week six, the Broncos were #12 in Outsiders Power Rankings. Since then, they have lost to the Giants (who lost a brutal game to the Vikings at home), they've beaten the Eagles (who have now lost three in a row, and look to be imploding), and have beaten the Raiders (simply not a good team, and losers of two in a row). So, from the time they were #12, the Broncos are 2-1, yet they have jumped ELEVEN PLACES in the Power Rankings. The Seahawks are 3-0 in that time, and they have only moved up two spots.

That just doesn't make sense.

Statistics are great, and they should be used in Power Rankings. However, they're not the end-all and be-all of the rankings. At the end of the day, the way that you choose to use the statistics themselves is arbitrary - as subjective as any opinion. Which statistics do you use? How far back to you analyze? It's all subjective.

It's fine to use them as a basis of your argument. But you use them as the basis for your argument (and the only basis, as best I can tell). That is every bit as ignorant as not using them at all. And calling someone stupid for not agreeing with you is also stupid, and indicative of youth.

easy answer, ur basing ur rankings on wins and losses, nowhere in dvoa does a win or a loss matter. u can, and ppl have pretty regularly dropped in dvoa after a win, or gained after a loss.

[Hotrod]

How the he11 is this concidered hard? for the final seven?


Nov 20 @Cincinnati
Nov 28 Pittsburgh
Dec 4 Tennessee
Dec 11 @Jacksonville
Dec 18 San Diego
Dec 24 @Seattle
Jan 1 Arizona

Um I would not want any part of that :nono:

[watermock]

just found this while reading for u guys:

According to Sean McCormick’s guest column, “The Evolving Predictive Powers of DVOA”, in 2003, picking winners based on relative DVOA won 59% of the time (compared to 50% for a “pickum”). In 2004, after the DVOA formula was updated, picking winners based on relative DVOA won 67% of the time.

Since the good pickers are getting a consistent 80 percent return, around 11 of 14 thru the bye weeks, you will find that all that statistical analyisis is just that....anal...it doesn't even pick against the spread....While we have done well picking the Broncos, I haven't exactly done well picking Minnesota each week either...yet I have an 80 percent win margin...at least...want to see?

9/16 Complete Thu, Sep 8 at 7:55 pm View
2 (Sep 13) 8/16 Complete Sun, Sep 18 at 11:55 am View
3 (Sep 20) 11/14 Complete Sun, Sep 25 at 11:55 am View
4 (Sep 27) 11/14 Complete Sun, Oct 2 at 11:55 am View
5 (Oct 4) 8/14 Complete Sun, Oct 9 at 11:55 am View
6 (Oct 11) 12/14 Complete Sun, Oct 16 at 11:55 am View
7 (Oct 18) 7/14 Complete Fri, Oct 21 at 5:55 pm View
8 (Oct 25) 10/14 Complete Sun, Oct 30 at 11:55 am View
9 (Nov 1) 12/14 Complete Sun, Nov 6 at 11:55 am View
10 (Nov 8) 11/14 Complete Sun, Nov 13 at 11:55 am View

And Dallas lucked out at the last moment....so whatever...

A moron can get straight up games right 67% of the time. Give me someone who can hit the spread in that percentage and you get my attention...

This only shows how stupid it is....a 12 year old can pick favorites....

[Rock Chalk]

Here's the kicker. DVOA claims that their power ranking system doesnt make for drastic changes up and down the charts. Well Denver from 12 to 1 in 3 weeks and Indy from 1 down to 6 in one week is drastic changes.

Quite frankly, I see no difference in DVOA power rankings and your next best schmuck throwing darts at a dartboard of teams. Statistical opinion is all DVOA is, not fact.

Lidderer and yavoon can cling to it like its their lifeblood all they want, it doesn't mean its right, or better, than anyone else's power rankings.

[yavoon]

Here's the kicker. DVOA claims that their power ranking system doesnt make for drastic changes up and down the charts. Well Denver from 12 to 1 in 3 weeks and Indy from 1 down to 6 in one week is drastic changes.

Quite frankly, I see no difference in DVOA power rankings and your next best schmuck throwing darts at a dartboard of teams. Statistical opinion is all DVOA is, not fact.

Lidderer and yavoon can cling to it like its their lifeblood all they want, it doesn't mean its right, or better, than anyone else's power rankings.

dvoa is nowhere near as elastic as the other rankings. just look at the beginning of the season its really quite funny how fast things can move.

[yavoon]

Since the good pickers are getting a consistent 80 percent return, around 11 of 14 thru the bye weeks, you will find that all that statistical analyisis is just that....anal...it doesn't even pick against the spread....While we have done well picking the Broncos, I haven't exactly done well picking Minnesota each week either...yet I have an 80 percent win margin...at least...want to see?

9/16 Complete Thu, Sep 8 at 7:55 pm View
2 (Sep 13) 8/16 Complete Sun, Sep 18 at 11:55 am View
3 (Sep 20) 11/14 Complete Sun, Sep 25 at 11:55 am View
4 (Sep 27) 11/14 Complete Sun, Oct 2 at 11:55 am View
5 (Oct 4) 8/14 Complete Sun, Oct 9 at 11:55 am View
6 (Oct 11) 12/14 Complete Sun, Oct 16 at 11:55 am View
7 (Oct 18) 7/14 Complete Fri, Oct 21 at 5:55 pm View
8 (Oct 25) 10/14 Complete Sun, Oct 30 at 11:55 am View
9 (Nov 1) 12/14 Complete Sun, Nov 6 at 11:55 am View
10 (Nov 8) 11/14 Complete Sun, Nov 13 at 11:55 am View

And Dallas lucked out at the last moment....so whatever...

A moron can get straight up games right 67% of the time. Give me someone who can hit the spread in that percentage and you get my attention...

This only shows how stupid it is....a 12 year old can pick favorites....

if ur picking favorites then ur actually borrowing someone else's sophisticated opinion. "just picking favorites" is easy for u but only because the favorites have already been established by ppl paid large sums of money to do such things.

[fontaine]

it changes, and certainly some changes could be important in terms of shoring up situations dvoa is less good at handling. but none of the changes are radical. it still basically does its thing, get every play, compare every play to the plays made by ur team and get a value over average rating.

I didn't say otherwise. I just pointed out that every system has it's faults since no one system has been known to predict the SuperBowl winner each year.

And there are PLENTY of other facets/intangibles of the game that are equally, if not more so, important as statistical analysis no matter how detailed it is. Such as luck with injuries, how travel affects warm weather teams like Miami in December, and how a team (record notwithstanding) can match up well against another, divisional games etc. Such as San Diego vs. Denver. No matter what their respective records Denver will always play San Diego's offense tough because we are so good at nullifying the other teams TE and have been for years and that doesn't just show up on a stat sheet that easily.

[yavoon]

I didn't say otherwise. I just pointed out that every system has it's faults since no one system has been known to predict the SuperBowl winner each year.

And there are PLENTY of other facets/intangibles of the game that are equally, if not more so, important as statistical analysis no matter how detailed it is. Such as luck with injuries, how travel affects warm weather teams like Miami in December, and how a team (record notwithstanding) can match up well against another, divisional games etc. Such as San Diego vs. Denver. No matter what their respective records Denver will always play San Diego's offense tough because we are so good at nullifying the other teams TE and have been for years and that doesn't just show up on a stat sheet that easily.

sure, hell u make it sound like its amazing dvoa can do anything at all! btw there is a dvoa for covering tight ends:)

[fontaine]

sure, hell u make it sound like its amazing dvoa can do anything at all!

No, just stats in general of any kind. There's ofcourse an important place for them, but IMO factors such as luck, injuries, strength of schedule also have pretty important merits.


btw there is a dvoa for covering tight ends

Cool. I might look it up. Do you have a link?

[yavoon]

No, just stats in general of any kind. There's ofcourse an important place for them, but IMO factors such as luck, injuries, strength of schedule also have pretty important merits.




Cool. I might look it up. Do you have a link?

www.footballoutsiders.com "just the stats" dropdown menu. the vs tightends or receivers is under team defense. individual players get dpar ratings. which is sort of like their contribution to the teams overall success.