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View Full Version : crazy fact from fox's power ranking

yavoon
10-26-2005, 07:14 AM
nothing to do w/ broncos


Since 1970, Mike Martz has the highest winning percentage of any NFL head coach in games where his team had a lead sometime in the fourth quarter. Red Miller is second, Joe Gibbs third.
Pat Bowlen
10-26-2005, 08:14 AM
"Sometime" in the fourth?
yavoon
10-26-2005, 08:23 AM
"Sometime" in the fourth?

yes
GreatBronco16
10-26-2005, 08:33 AM
"Sometime" in the fourth?

Do we need to draw you a picture?
Pat Bowlen
10-26-2005, 08:44 AM
Isn't that a little vague?
Rascal
10-26-2005, 08:45 AM
Oh so?

During the fourth quarter they had the lead at some point.
Pat Bowlen
10-26-2005, 08:52 AM
Oh so?

During the fourth quarter they had the lead at some point.
Yeah, but the team with the lead last usually wins the game. That stat apparently includes games in which the Rams scored a touchdown with a minute left, or kicked a FG as time expired.
Rascal
10-26-2005, 08:55 AM
Yes it does. So that would imply his team is good at coming back to win as well as holding a lead to win.
Pat Bowlen
10-26-2005, 09:05 AM
Fair enough. I still think it's kinda silly, though. It's basically the same thing as a coach's winning percentage.
bronco militia
10-26-2005, 09:12 AM
Since 1970, Mike Martz has the highest winning percentage

screw percentages.

what a lame stat...who has the most victories?
Lidderer
10-26-2005, 10:06 AM
Since 1970, Mike Martz has the highest winning percentage

screw percentages.

what a lame stat...who has the most victories?

Lenny wilkins
Arkie
10-26-2005, 10:20 AM
Since 1970, Mike Martz has the highest winning percentage

screw percentages.

what a lame stat...who has the most victories?

I'm sure Don Shula easily has the most victories.
broncogary
10-26-2005, 10:34 AM
Red Miller-"The fourth quarter is ours!"
ludo21
10-26-2005, 10:37 AM
Red Miller-"The fourth quarter is ours!"

that is exactly the intesnsity that needs to be pumped thru each practice this week. Shany needs to be riding the guys hard and getting them the mentality that the 4th is the time to shine and dominate!! :coach:
NaptownChief
10-26-2005, 11:00 AM
Fair enough. I still think it's kinda silly, though. It's basically the same thing as a coach's winning percentage.



Not really since it factors in games blown in the 4th quarter.
Pat Bowlen
10-26-2005, 12:11 PM
Not really since it factors in games blown in the 4th quarter.
Which would affect his record and win percentage.
Merlin
10-26-2005, 12:29 PM
Since 1970, Mike Martz has the highest winning percentage of any NFL head coach in games where his team had a lead sometime in the fourth quarter. Red Miller is second, Joe Gibbs third.
That is surprising because Reid has some "astronomical" (I think less than 10 losses) winning percentage when leading after the first half, so I would have expected him to be even better in this category.
NaptownChief
10-26-2005, 12:31 PM
Which would affect his record and win percentage.



True but it isn't just "basically his winning %" as you mentioned because it is specifically breaking out and measuring a coaches ability to hold a late lead. In reality a loss is a loss but if you held a lead in the 4th quarter that is usually a good indication that you had a team good enough to win the game and poor coaching could have blown it to where if you never held a lead beyond the early part of a game it could very well mean you never had the team and talent to compete in the first place. There is always exceptions to anything but this give you a good idea as to what coaches know how to put games away and those that struggle with it.
Pat Bowlen
10-26-2005, 12:38 PM
True but it isn't just "basically his winning %" as you mentioned because it is specifically breaking out and measuring a coaches ability to hold a late lead.
Read the thing again. It's not about 'holding' a lead, it's about having a lead at sometime in the fourth. Martz could be down by three scores at the beginning of the fourth quarter but if his team came back and took the lead and won it would count on this statistic.
westcliffe
10-26-2005, 12:43 PM
This is basically winning % minus games where you are getting beat and never take a lead in the fourth quarter at any time for any length of time. Don't really know what that shows. If you get beat 100 times and never have a lead in the fourth, but win 50 times with a lead in the fourth, you would still have a terrible record overall and wouldn't have a job long. This stat, however, would discount the 100 losses and would look good.

Again, not real sure what this stat shows or why it is relevant.
Pat Bowlen
10-26-2005, 12:51 PM
Again, not real sure what this stat shows or why it is relevant.
Crazy, huh?
NaptownChief
10-26-2005, 12:55 PM
Read the thing again. It's not about 'holding' a lead, it's about having a lead at sometime in the fourth. Martz could be down by three scores at the beginning of the fourth quarter but if his team came back and took the lead and won it would count on this statistic.



Absolutely...it would count both which in either case would mean getting it done late in the game when it matters.


I think a better way to look at it at least for me would be to think about the same measure in basketball.

If a team plays Duke and has a lead in the final ten minutes of the game it is a good indication that the team is certainly talented enough to play with them. A good coach, like a Bobby Knight, would have a much better chance of devising a game plan to win a game like that than say Mike Davis and over the long haul a measure like this would indicate as such. Losing a game that you had a lead in the final ten minutes tells us that as a coach you might have had an opportunity to make a difference versus a loss where a team goes into Cameron and gets ripped by 50 points and never had a lead. While they are both losses losing the one late reflects more on the coach to where getting blasted by 50 probably means the team didn't have the talent to compete no matter who would have been coaching the team on that night.

You follow?
Arkie
10-26-2005, 01:12 PM
Crazy, huh?

It's crazy that FOX has a "NFL's sexiest man" poll on their NFL front page. Jake Plummer is one of the choices.
http://i.a.cnn.net/si/2005/writers/justin_doom/10/21/dooms.day/p1_jakeplummer.jpg
Vote for Rookie Cop No. 2
Pat Bowlen
10-26-2005, 01:18 PM
You follow?
Yeah, but like westcliffe said it doesn't really tell you about much other than the games in which they scored in the fourth. I didn't say it was a stupid stat, I just think it's pretty trivial.
NaptownChief
10-26-2005, 01:29 PM
Yeah, but like westcliffe said it doesn't really tell you about much other than the games in which they scored in the fourth. I didn't say it was a stupid stat, I just think it's pretty trivial.


It only tells you how they faired in which they held late leads, nothing more or less...It is a pretty irrelevant measure with a very small sample of data but probably a very good indication of coaching ability with a large sample of data over several years. To put it in the simplest of terms I would say it measures "How many did you pull off in which you had a chance to win..." Kinda like how many tournaments a golfer has won or lost after having a 54 hole lead.

Well anyway....nothing more to see here.
Atlas
10-26-2005, 02:19 PM
Yeah, but the team with the lead last usually wins the game. That stat apparently includes games in which the Rams scored a touchdown with a minute left, or kicked a FG as time expired.

What this stat means is that these teams probably had good defenses that were able to hold leads when the 4th quarter arrived.
bronco militia
10-26-2005, 02:33 PM
What this stat means is that these teams probably had good defenses that were able to hold leads when the 4th quarter arrived.


good defenses and Mike Martz.....now there's an oxymoron

ROFL!