chrisp
10-24-2005, 02:20 PM
OK, the first thing I want to say is that its only one game. The intensely heartbreaking nature of the loss can often distort the significance of it, so we need to make sure we don't get carried away with the doom & gloom.
BUT
I DO think that the game did expose one of our weaknesses, namely the inability to convert 3rd downs. Its almost like we're going to score if we don't go 3 and out, and in my crazier moments I sometimes want to see some 30-40 yard drives where we got a couple of 1st downs and then punted.
Truth is, however, this CAN'T mean we are a BAD offense, becuase we are still doing well enough on 1st and 2nd down to make yards and score points, so there has to be another reason. What is it that is different on 3rd down?
You could say pressure is the difference, but in actual fact we have improved on our red zone performance (I can't find the stats but I'm pretty sure that's true) where arguably the pressure is just as great. The other factor to bear in mind is that we are top ten in terms of 4th down conversion - surely on a 4th down the pressure is even greater?? So I don't think you can say it's a case of losing nerve or wilting under pressure. The real reason I think lies elsewhere.
My gut feel is that with so much of the offense being predicated on the run, we have a problem with situations where the other team knows we are going to pass. Perhaps on 3rd and 3 you can bootleg, but once you're looking at anything like 7 yards plus its hard to sell that however good your run game is. I think that once that happens we tend to struggle. But why?
Well one reason is Jake. He is definitely playing ultra-conservative and just not trying to force it if he doesn't have an open man. This is possibly no bad thing considering the interceptions he threw last year, but its throwing up a lingering issue from last year: we don't have any recievers who can get open in those go-to situations. Last year our 3rd down problems were compounded by an inability to convert short-yardage situations on the ground. The return of MA and another year for the re-tooled O-line to jell has fixed that (as evidenced by the 4th-down stat alluded to above), but the other problem last year was the lack of a Shannon-Sharpe style posession guy, and that problem still remains to be fixed.
I can remember in Jake's first season it was a similar story: Jake was asked to just not make mistakes and we rode Clinton Portis to victory. That year I think we all felt that if he hadn't been injured we would have won more games (not sure if that's the case but it was definitely the feeling we all had). But there was a crucial difference in that season: Jake still had Shannon!!! It was almost embarrasing how often he went to him in go-to situations.
So basically we need another strong, crafty, posession receiver to emerge. Here's my breakdown of the recievers and who I think that man could be:
Rod - Rod is the MAN but he just gets too much attention in go-to situations to be relied upon. If no-one else steps up then he will always be tightly covered by a double-team or their best cover-guy
Ashley - Mr Lelie doesn't seem to frighten anyone inside of 15 yards. I'm not putting him down, but he just doesn't seem physical enough to be a consistent over-the-middle posession guy
Stephen Alexander - probably the best all-round tight end he can and does make plays for us from time to time, but he's just too much of a Jack-of-all trades to be that go-to-guy. Solid and dependable, but not the answer to our 3rd down woes
Charlie Adams - has worked his ass off to get himself onto the field, and cannot be accused of lacking heart, but alas, I can't help but feel he's a little too ordinary to be a difference-maker. No-one will be happier than me if he proves me wrong, however.....
Jeb Putzier - No-one is more confused than I am as to why Jeb has not become the heir apparent to Shannon. Sometimes he gets so open its embarrasing. The only thing I can suggest is that maybe he isn't that great an athelete, just shifty and clever, so he can make big gains when the other team isn't expecting it or doesn't account for him, but on 3rd down he gets proper attention from the defense and rejoins the ranks of the average. I'm not saying he couldn't be the answer, just that if he was I think we'd know by now....
David Terrell - Like Gerard Warren he's suffered for not living up to the expectations of a top ten draft choice, and at 212 lbs I have more than a hunch that Shanny has some hopes for him to be that go-to posession guy. However, I honestly think he needs more time to bed into the system, and even then he's a long-shot, after all, he has yet to get a 1000 yard season and he's in his 5th year as a pro.
Darius Watts: Showed last year that his impressive ability to get open when it matters was matched only by his inability to hang on to the ball. Had he fixed his issues this season then we would NOT be talking about 3rd down problems but alas he seems to have gone the other way...last seen on the bench heading slowly but inexorably towards a sign marked "EXIT"....
Todd Devoe - impressive in camp, but all that did was earn him a roster spot. I'll be rooting for the kid but I reckon we're clutching at straws if we think he's going to step up and be the man.
...so who have I missed? Well there's a couple of maybe's up there, but anyone who knows me knows i'm little teensy-weensy Homerish when it comes to a certain Mr Nate Jackson. Yes, you heard it here first ladies and gentlemen, Crazy Nate is my sleeper pick to step up and solve our 3rd down woes. Why do I say this? Well, from what I've seen so far the only knock on him is his durability. He's missed a hell of a lot playing time on the treatment-table, but in the glimpses we've seen of him he's shown an ability to get open in the clutch, and catch everything that's within a mile of his hands. Plus anyone who reads any of his journal contributions on the website can be left in no doubt that he has the right kind of space-cadet-cum-ranged-out psycho mentality to go over the middle on a consistent basis. All we need is a few miraculous weeks of health from the guy and he can help us to limp to the superbowl. I don't think he goes on to be all-pro, I reckon he has a couple more years struggling with injuries before he finally hangs it up, but I'm just hoping, nay PRAYING that he can stay healthy long enough to be a factor for us this season.
so there you have it - don't hold back, I'm either insane or a visionary...or an insane visionary...which do you think it is?????
BUT
I DO think that the game did expose one of our weaknesses, namely the inability to convert 3rd downs. Its almost like we're going to score if we don't go 3 and out, and in my crazier moments I sometimes want to see some 30-40 yard drives where we got a couple of 1st downs and then punted.
Truth is, however, this CAN'T mean we are a BAD offense, becuase we are still doing well enough on 1st and 2nd down to make yards and score points, so there has to be another reason. What is it that is different on 3rd down?
You could say pressure is the difference, but in actual fact we have improved on our red zone performance (I can't find the stats but I'm pretty sure that's true) where arguably the pressure is just as great. The other factor to bear in mind is that we are top ten in terms of 4th down conversion - surely on a 4th down the pressure is even greater?? So I don't think you can say it's a case of losing nerve or wilting under pressure. The real reason I think lies elsewhere.
My gut feel is that with so much of the offense being predicated on the run, we have a problem with situations where the other team knows we are going to pass. Perhaps on 3rd and 3 you can bootleg, but once you're looking at anything like 7 yards plus its hard to sell that however good your run game is. I think that once that happens we tend to struggle. But why?
Well one reason is Jake. He is definitely playing ultra-conservative and just not trying to force it if he doesn't have an open man. This is possibly no bad thing considering the interceptions he threw last year, but its throwing up a lingering issue from last year: we don't have any recievers who can get open in those go-to situations. Last year our 3rd down problems were compounded by an inability to convert short-yardage situations on the ground. The return of MA and another year for the re-tooled O-line to jell has fixed that (as evidenced by the 4th-down stat alluded to above), but the other problem last year was the lack of a Shannon-Sharpe style posession guy, and that problem still remains to be fixed.
I can remember in Jake's first season it was a similar story: Jake was asked to just not make mistakes and we rode Clinton Portis to victory. That year I think we all felt that if he hadn't been injured we would have won more games (not sure if that's the case but it was definitely the feeling we all had). But there was a crucial difference in that season: Jake still had Shannon!!! It was almost embarrasing how often he went to him in go-to situations.
So basically we need another strong, crafty, posession receiver to emerge. Here's my breakdown of the recievers and who I think that man could be:
Rod - Rod is the MAN but he just gets too much attention in go-to situations to be relied upon. If no-one else steps up then he will always be tightly covered by a double-team or their best cover-guy
Ashley - Mr Lelie doesn't seem to frighten anyone inside of 15 yards. I'm not putting him down, but he just doesn't seem physical enough to be a consistent over-the-middle posession guy
Stephen Alexander - probably the best all-round tight end he can and does make plays for us from time to time, but he's just too much of a Jack-of-all trades to be that go-to-guy. Solid and dependable, but not the answer to our 3rd down woes
Charlie Adams - has worked his ass off to get himself onto the field, and cannot be accused of lacking heart, but alas, I can't help but feel he's a little too ordinary to be a difference-maker. No-one will be happier than me if he proves me wrong, however.....
Jeb Putzier - No-one is more confused than I am as to why Jeb has not become the heir apparent to Shannon. Sometimes he gets so open its embarrasing. The only thing I can suggest is that maybe he isn't that great an athelete, just shifty and clever, so he can make big gains when the other team isn't expecting it or doesn't account for him, but on 3rd down he gets proper attention from the defense and rejoins the ranks of the average. I'm not saying he couldn't be the answer, just that if he was I think we'd know by now....
David Terrell - Like Gerard Warren he's suffered for not living up to the expectations of a top ten draft choice, and at 212 lbs I have more than a hunch that Shanny has some hopes for him to be that go-to posession guy. However, I honestly think he needs more time to bed into the system, and even then he's a long-shot, after all, he has yet to get a 1000 yard season and he's in his 5th year as a pro.
Darius Watts: Showed last year that his impressive ability to get open when it matters was matched only by his inability to hang on to the ball. Had he fixed his issues this season then we would NOT be talking about 3rd down problems but alas he seems to have gone the other way...last seen on the bench heading slowly but inexorably towards a sign marked "EXIT"....
Todd Devoe - impressive in camp, but all that did was earn him a roster spot. I'll be rooting for the kid but I reckon we're clutching at straws if we think he's going to step up and be the man.
...so who have I missed? Well there's a couple of maybe's up there, but anyone who knows me knows i'm little teensy-weensy Homerish when it comes to a certain Mr Nate Jackson. Yes, you heard it here first ladies and gentlemen, Crazy Nate is my sleeper pick to step up and solve our 3rd down woes. Why do I say this? Well, from what I've seen so far the only knock on him is his durability. He's missed a hell of a lot playing time on the treatment-table, but in the glimpses we've seen of him he's shown an ability to get open in the clutch, and catch everything that's within a mile of his hands. Plus anyone who reads any of his journal contributions on the website can be left in no doubt that he has the right kind of space-cadet-cum-ranged-out psycho mentality to go over the middle on a consistent basis. All we need is a few miraculous weeks of health from the guy and he can help us to limp to the superbowl. I don't think he goes on to be all-pro, I reckon he has a couple more years struggling with injuries before he finally hangs it up, but I'm just hoping, nay PRAYING that he can stay healthy long enough to be a factor for us this season.
so there you have it - don't hold back, I'm either insane or a visionary...or an insane visionary...which do you think it is?????