Concern? Broncos last in third down percentage...

[Taco John]

I think there's a general feeling that something isn't quite right on the offensive side of the ball... And whoever you want to attribute as the "problem," you have to at least admit that there is something wrong.

I went to the Total Offense stats matrix at NFL.com to gain some comparative insight and found some interesting things, some of which are very good, and others that should at least raise a red flag of concern.

First the good news. We are 4-1 and among the best in the league in every conceivable rushing stat. The Broncos are ranked among the top ten in the league in Time of Possession (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TOTAL/2005/regular?sort_col_1=4&_1:col_1=15&_1:col_2=7). We are currently ranked in the top five (fourth overall) in average yards per rush (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2005/regular?&_1:col_1=6). We are ranked in the top three in average rushing yards per game (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2005/regular?&_1:col_1=7&_1:col_2=6). Our rushing game is ranked in the top three in rushing first downs overall with 37 (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2005/regular?&_1:col_1=9&_1:col_2=8), and we are second in the league in 20+ yard rushing attempts. Our rushing offense is second in the league in total yards (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2005/regular?&_1:col_1=5&_1:col_2=10) with 742 yards... almost 70 yards ahead of Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks.

Sorting through the stats, one thing in particular jumped out at me with regards to third downs. I turns out that we are ranked last in the league in third down percentage (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TOTAL/2005/regular?sort_col_1=7&_1:col_1=9) at 27.7%. Just ahead of us is Oakland at 28.6%. Just ahead of both of us is Houston and San Francisco. We have made 18 of 65 third down conversions. Of note is the fact that the Chargers are ranked first in this stat, at 50%.

Any thoughts of concern over being last in third down percentage?

[Rock Chalk]

I think there's a general feeling that something isn't quite right on the offensive side of the ball... And whoever you want to attribute as the "problem," you have to at least admit that there is something wrong.

I went to the Total Offense stats matrix at NFL.com to gain some comparative insight and found some interesting things, some of which are very good, and others that should at least raise a red flag of concern.

First the good news. We are 4-1 and among the best in the league in every conceivable rushing stat. The Broncos are ranked among the top ten in the league in Time of Possession (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TOTAL/2005/regular?sort_col_1=4&_1:col_1=15&_1:col_2=7). We are currently ranked in the top five (fourth overall) in average yards per rush (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2005/regular?&_1:col_1=6). We are ranked in the top three in average rushing yards per game (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2005/regular?&_1:col_1=7&_1:col_2=6). Our rushing game is ranked in the top three in rushing first downs overall with 37 (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2005/regular?&_1:col_1=9&_1:col_2=8), and we are second in the league in 20+ yard rushing attempts. Our rushing offense is second in the league in total yards (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-RUSHING/2005/regular?&_1:col_1=5&_1:col_2=10) with 742 yards... almost 70 yards ahead of Shaun Alexander and the Seahawks.

Sorting through the stats, one thing in particular jumped out at me with regards to third downs. I turns out that we are ranked last in the league in third down percentage (http://www.nfl.com/stats/teamsort/NFL/OFF-TOTAL/2005/regular?sort_col_1=7&_1:col_1=9) at 27.7%. Just ahead of us is Oakland at 28.6%. Just ahead of both of us is Houston and San Francisco. We have made 18 of 65 third down conversions. Of note is the fact that the Chargers are ranked first in this stat, at 50%.

Any thoughts of concern over being last in third down percentage?

Well, first thing that poped into my head is that we have played tough defenses in at least 4 of our five games. Further, one was in sweltering humidity the other in rain and, lets face it, Denver just isnt good in bad weather and never really has been.

We also have had two bad offensive games and three decent producing games, but two of three will throw the stats off especially in those two, Miami and Washington, we wer ereally horrendous.

Its too early to truly be concerned, but it is something we need to keep an eye on. Consistency might be a problem and if it is, we will need to find a way to win despite that, like we ahve been doing.

[anthonypacino]

Big time worries, but I think it correlates to our lack of an effective passing game as of late. We really don't have a great short yardage running game (Dayne folds like a wet tissue at first contact) Lelie running deep routes and catching nothing is still keeping the D honest..for now I know it is a very low risk way of running things and it has worked so far but, I truly believe that this isn't some kind of dream offense that Shanny came up with. He knows that the personal on the offensive side of the ball are not capable of playing up to anything else, you have to come up with a scheme to match your players not force your team into playing something that they can't.

[watermock]

I have been screaming about this for years. It's absolutely pathetic.

Why do you think I have called for Kubiak's head? I don't dislike him at all! Can't we do better than ANY OTHER TEAM IN THE ENTIRE NFL?

[Rock Chalk]

Im not buying the fact that this offense cant be explosive. Ive seen it be explosive. Same offense.

[Taco John]

I personally don't think that Kubiak is to blame here. I sure hated the days of emptying the backfield and motioning to a five wide set on third and one, but those days seem to be done. Maybe it *is* a coaching issue, but I'm of the opinion that these coaches are getting the most out of the personnell they have.

Whatever the problem is, we need to do better against the Patriots.

[Ballhawk]

First, I think what we are experiencing is Shanny and co have not yet found a good balance with Jake. Last year he may have made bonehead plays, but he made a lot of good plays also. This year he is over controlled. To take one play from tonights SD game, Brees scrambled out of the pocket, pointed gates to take off, then threw up a jump ball that gates came down with...First down. Jake would have been applauded for throwing the ball away in that situation. Shanny needs to let Jake put the ball up and let the WR make a play on it. Where are the Lelie PI calls? Not going to get them when the ball is uncatchable. One on One throw up a jump ball if needed and good things can happen.

Second, MA is a 3 yards and a cloud of dust. Yes he will break one when the hole is big enough, but no way does he get more than 3 yards on either of the runs Bell took for TDS. What this means is a lot of 3rd and 4 or more. So Jake runs the play and if it is not there he throws it away and we punt. I think if Bell is getting 20 or more touches we are more likely to see 2nd and 3 and be able to PA pass into better situations.

[watermock]

I totally dissagree.

Altho we might be going 2 TE at times, it seems we always motion one split anyway...yea, Putz is starting to make plays, but really, where do you rank this guy among the AFC TE's?

Where would you rank Lelie yet alone Watts, who I don't think hardly saw the field...seems Adams is getting more snaps.

Alexander hasn't done anything whatsoever.

Neither Anderson, Bell or Sapp have decent hands out of the backfield. Dayne is the best, and he was invisible. Q had good hands but it's hard to hit an ant.

[Taco John]

Hmm... Plummer's take via Jim Armstrong at the DPO


"They've told us not to worry about it when you don't get a first down," Plummer said. "Move on, let (Todd Sauerbrun) punt and let the defense take over. But we're not going to be able to hang our hats on that all year. We're going to have to get after it. Next week, we've got to make big plays.

"We can't make a big deal out of it. Sure, I'd like to have 10 touchdown passes, six of them to Ashley (Lelie) for 30 or 40 yards, but that's not the way it's gone."

Good article by Armstrong (http://www.denverpost.com/ci_3104561?rss)

[wabbit]

This 3rd down dilemma will very likely be the circumstance that earns Tatum Bell a starters role...which so many have called for...me, NOT among them, until now.

Mike Anderson earned his starters job, but just casual observation seems to scream for a flashier option at RB.

You've GOT to have a threat in both the run & pass to keep teams off-balance on third downs, and the Broncos have Rod Smith & who, exactly??

I've read several commentaries quoting opposing players who say they knew, without a doubt, what Denver was going to do in a particular third down situation...in most cases, as the stats would indicate, they stopped it, in a few memorable goofs...as with Washington vs a slippery Tatum Bell...it got away from them.

Predictability.

With multiple, VIABLE threats...a la Tatum Bell, Putzier, Alexander, Smith, Adams...even Lelie, might make defenses think a little harder.

Until then, third down will remain a low % probablility.

[Ballhawk]

We could also use a little more aggressive playcalling like the Lelie reverses called against KC.

[MrPeepers]

it's time for tater to accept his role as our next big threat and embrace it.

noone on this team minus the defense really scares anyone else.

lelie has the potential too, but lately his hands have been made of granite, and when given the opportunity to be a threat he hides from it.

it would be great to see a leader emerge and alot of that is up to shanahan. he can encourage leadership and confidence in tater. so with that it's time start forcing the chick to fly.

[Taco John]

I think you're going to see Shanahan do the same thing in the running game as we've been doing all along, if for no other reason than "if it's not broke, don't fix it."

An interesting stat about Tatum Bell though... Bell has had 10 rushing attempts for 95 yards on third downs this season, a 9.5 Average. Five of those were for first downs. Comparatively, Mike Anderson is 9 attempts for 25 yards (a 2.8 yard average).

[Ballhawk]

TJ, does that include his 4th down run for the TD?

[Taco John]

More third down stats of interest...

-100% of Lelie's third down catches are for first downs (1 catch for 5 yards)
-100% of Putzier and Stephen Alexander's third down catches are for 1st downs (combined 3 catches for 30 yards)
-57% of Rod's third down catches are for first downs. (7 catches for 66 yards)
-50% of Tatum Bell's third down runs convert to first downs (10 for 95 yards)
-44% of Mike Anderson's third down runs convert to first downs (9 for 25 yards)
-25% of Charlie Adam's third down catches are for first downs (4 for 31 yards)

Darius Watts has zero third down catches.


I'd throw out the outlier of Lelie being 100% given he's only had one attempt. Rod and Tatum are our bread and butter, but I think we need to try and find our tight ends more. 3 for 3 is pretty decent from them.

[Taco John]

TJ, does that include his 4th down run for the TD?

.
Bell has had 10 rushing attempts for 95 yards on third downs this season, a 9.5 Average.

[Ballhawk]

Or a link for reading comprehension lol