bloodsunday
09-28-2005, 06:32 AM
http://msn.foxsports.com/nfl/story/4910694
1. STEELERS 2-1 1 2 1 8 21
Pittsburgh's drive to tie the game was just as impressive as New England's comeback to take the lead. Coming off a 15-1 season, they dominated their first two opponents and then lost a close game to the defending Super Bowl champions. Since they've been more consistent than the Patriots this year, I think it's fair for them to stay at number one. NEXT: Bye week, then at SD
2. EAGLES 2-1 2 4 4 5 27
Eagles are this high for two reasons: First, our pre-season projections had them as the best team in the NFL, and second, they stomped all over the 49ers. But they haven't looked impressive in two out of three games. The Akers injury is killing them on both field goals and kickoffs. Do you really want a subpar kicker to face Dante Hall? NEXT: at KC
3. BENGALS 3-0 3 1 5 1 9
The best team in the NFL through three games. Really. See extended commentary below. NEXT: vs. HOU — Houston? Man, you have got to be kidding me.
4. COLTS 3-0 6 6 9 6 22
Us hate beauty. Us love ugliness. Is big crime for Peyton Manning to throw touchdown pass on Bizarro World. NEXT: at TEN
5. BUCS 3-0 5 3 15 2 12
For two years, the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings have said that the Bucs were better than their record. Two years ago, they went 7-9 and ranked 8th. Last year, they went 5-11 but ranked 16th. Our preseason projection had them winning the NFC South, but our brains simply couldn't believe it. In the battle of cold, heartless stats vs. human scouting, this is a win for cold, heartless stats. NEXT: vs. DET
6. PATRIOTS 2-1 7 14 13 12 16
This was one of the all-time great New England regular season wins: they came from behind on the road, against one of the best teams in the NFL, after losing two of their most important players to injury early in the contest. But that doesn't change the fact that they lost to Carolina, and not by a slim margin either. Thus, the lower ranking. The bad news, of course, is the loss of Rodney Harrison for the season, and Matt Light for most of it. The good news is that they may have just put their two hardest games of the season behind them, and as important as Harrison was -- dare I disrespect him? -- he wasn't as important to the Patriots as Takeo Spikes and Chad Pennington were to the Bills and Jets. NEXT: vs. SD
7. BILLS 1-2 4 15 21 10 4
The Bills had the NFL's best defense for the second half of last year, and looked pretty good coming into this season, which is why they get ranked this high in a formula that isn't entirely based on 2005. But the defense hasn't been close to last year's level, giving up a lot of yards on second and third down, and it is going to get even worse without Spikes. Are the Saints the cure for J.P. Losman's woes? NEXT: vs. NO in San Antonio
8. CHARGERS 1-2 14 11 3 25 7
Very impressive offensive performance as your Super Bowl XLI Champion San Diego Chargers get off the schneid. NEXT: at NE
9. SEAHAWKS 2-1 18 9 2 20 23
First week loss to Jacksonville looks like a bit of a fluke, as the Seahawks have put up two straight games with big offense and slightly above-average defense. See extended commentary below. NEXT: at WAS
10. PANTHERS 1-2 8 18 19 11 11
People are going to get whiplash jumping on and off the Carolina bandwagon. See extended commentary below. NEXT: vs GB in the renewal of that annual tradition, the "Wow, that's not such a great matchup after all" Monday night game.
11. CHIEFS 2-1 10 13 8 21 15
Monday loss was like watching the words we wrote in Pro Football Prospectus 2005 come to life. Without Willie Roaf, the Chiefs offensive line looked bad. If the offense is hitting on all cylinders, this team is extremely dangerous, but too many of those cylinders are old. Old players get injured more often, and the only Kansas City star with a trustworthy backup is Priest Holmes. By the way, the book also noted that Tony Gonzalez is 29, the age when the greatest tight ends all started to decline. Gonzalez is averaging 41 yards per game this year (with no touchdowns) after 79 yards per game in 2004. NEXT: vs. PHI
12. BRONCOS 2-1 15 19 18 16 19
Game-by-game ratings for this season: -54%, -5%, 48%. The offense has improved each game, the defense has improved each game, and the special teams have improved each game. If they lose this week, they'll be 2-0 in Colorado, 0-2 in Florida, and 0-0 in the other 48 states. NEXT: at JAC
13. JAGUARS 2-1 12 10 17 7 3
Story of the season has been Byron Leftwich pulling the offense out of the fire on third-and-long, making up for another stuff-a-riffic year from the aging Fred Taylor. Offensive DVOA ranks 20th on first down, 22nd on second down, 8th on third down. If that can continue, the defense is good enough for this team to get into the playoffs. NEXT: vs. DEN
14. DOLPHINS 2-1 16 8 16 4 10
The league's top run defense DVOA after three games, and it didn't exactly come against cupcake opponents. They stopped the Denver running factory, last year's rushing leader Curtis Martin, and now the Carolina committee. Offense has been delightfully mediocre instead of the train wreck we all expected going into the season. How happy are people who bet the Miami over right now? NEXT: Bye week, then at BUF
15. GIANTS 2-1 9 5 6 22 1
The greatly improved, playoff caliber defense of the New York Giants -- Wow, I remember it like it was yesterday. Well, three days ago, actually. Jumping to the conclusion that the Giants are overrated based on one game against LaDainian Tomlinson is as rash as jumping to the conclusion that the Giants have a good defense based on games against Arizona and New Orleans. For now, Giants fans should just be happy that Eli Manning, after a terrible rookie year, has put together two very nice games. NEXT: vs. STL
16. COWBOYS 2-1 13 12 10 17 17
Dallas' secondary looks awful, even though Anthony Henry has played reasonably well most of the time, and Roy Williams is a great linebacker. Or would be, if he played linebacker. If Dallas doesn't get a pass rush, they're sunk. NEXT: at OAK — Randy Moss is licking his chops (but only because he has the munchies).
17. FALCONS 2-1 20 17 11 19 20
This one needs explanation. Football Outsiders stats are notoriously down on the Falcons in general and Michael Vick in particular. Last year, the Falcons played like an 8-8 team and lucked into an 11-5 record. They don't rank very high based on 2005 performance either because both wins have been close. That being said, the biggest reason why our projections were so down on Atlanta was their schedule. With all the injuries in the AFC East, Carolina looking schizo, and New Orleans perpetually on the road, that schedule doesn't look so tough anymore. NEXT: vs. MIN
18. JETS 1-2 11 24 28 13 18
This elevator is headed straight down, but at least they have a good field goal kicker. It's hard to figure out what caused the sudden disintegration of the offensive line and Curtis Martin did in fact get worn down by all those carries last year. Where are they hiding Derrick Blaylock? The worst problem, of course, is the quarterback situation, at least until Vinny plays himself back into shape. This is what we wrote about Brooks Bollinger in Pro Football Prospectus 2005: "If your team ends up with him under center, it's time to turn off the TV." Click. NEXT: at BAL
19. REDSKINS 2-0 19 22 23 9 31
Done with mirrors. Every year some team jumps out to a good start based on close victories even though our numbers say that team is getting outplayed by opponents. Two years ago it was Carolina, but the Panthers turned it on in the playoffs and went all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year it was Jacksonville, which crashed and burned in the second half. This year, Washington. I have a feeling that Joe Gibbs is going to get what's behind door number two, not door number one. But it will be fun to see just how big a cushion the Seattle cornerbacks give Santana Moss. Has any cornerback ever played 20 yards off the line? NEXT: vs. SEA
20. RAMS 2-1 21 16 12 14 24
The defense has looked surprisingly average so far, but remember that the three offenses they have faced are ranked 22nd, 27th and 29th. NEXT: at NYG
21. BEARS 1-2 17 7 26 3 6
The winner of the "team that most confuses the rating system early" award, because their Week 2 win against Detroit was so absurdly one-sided. The defensive rating for the game against Cincinnati is actually above-average, because Kyle Orton's interceptions put them in bad field position on drive after drive. Cincinnati's first two scoring drives started at the Chicago 18-yard line and the Chicago 36-yard line. NEXT: Bye week, then at CLE
22. RAIDERS 0-3 24 21 7 30 28
Oakland is ranked this low because it is too early to have strong adjustments for strength of schedule. But Oakland did draw the short straw in the early schedule lottery, with both defending conference champions and 2-1 Kansas City, and the Raiders weren't blown off the field in any of those games. NEXT: vs. DAL, and don't be surprised by an Oakland upset.
23. VIKINGS 1-2 31 27 29 15 13
Well, those were the Vikings we've all come to know and love. Considering the fact that both of their losses came to teams that are now 3-0, maybe the issue was not that the Vikings are bad, but rather that the Bucs and Bengals are good. They still have six games left against the terrible teams in their own division, so they should still be the favorites to win the NFC North. As for this week, the interior of the Atlanta offensive line has looked really good this season, so this is an important week for the Williams brothers, Kevin and Pat. Minnesota might not pull off the upset on the road, but given Atlanta's tendency to play close games, they make quite the attractive underdog. NEXT: at ATL
24. SAINTS 1-2 23 26 20 28 25
That first win was a nice story, but they've been hideous on both offense and defense for two weeks. I said before the season that this was a mediocre team of fantasy football stars who specialize in gaining yardage rather than playing good situational football, and I'm sticking to it. NEXT: vs. BUF in San Antonio
25. TITANS 1-2 27 23 25 23 5
They're really better than this, considering that their big blowout loss came to the team at number one. Check out the schedule from Week 7 on: Tennessee is the most likely team to make a surprising playoff push in the second half and become a sleeper pick for 2006. NEXT: vs. IND
26. RAVENS 0-2 22 31 30 26 30
The offensive struggles were expected. That defensive rating is bad because the Ravens have played only two games and one of them was against Indianapolis, back before they replaced Peyton Manning with Trent Dilfer. This defense has had a week off to prepare to take on Brooks Bollinger. At home. You do the math. NEXT: vs. NYJ
27. BROWNS 1-2 25 20 14 27 8
For what it is worth, they are better than Green Bay. NEXT: Bye week, then vs. CHI
28. PACKERS 0-3 26 25 24 26 26
According to DVOA, Green Bay has been the league's most consistent team. Unfortunately, they've been consistently bad, with single-game ratings of -47%, -40% and -44%. Next: at CAR
Rk Team W-L Last Wk 2005 Only Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk
29. CARDINALS 0-3 28 29 22 29 29
Our book Pro Football Prospectus 2005 predicted: "(Kurt) Warner hasn't played a full season since 2001 so (Josh) McCown will see starts in 2005." Score that one correct. Next prediction to get tested: "On October 2 in Mexico City, (Neil) Rackers will set a new NFL record by kicking a 65-yard field goal against San Francisco." NEXT: vs. SF in Mexico City
30. LIONS 1-1 29 30 31 18 32
That's your first place Detroit Lions. Their first two games were so different from each other that it is hard to tell what will happen over the course of the season. This week, at least, they are going to lose. NEXT: at TB
31. TEXANS 0-2 30 32 32 32 14
Have you ever heard that old football adage, "You build a team from the lines out?" Well, then, you're one up on the Texans. Next: at CIN
32. 49ERS 1-2 32 28 27 31 2
Continuing their steady climb from league doormat to 2006 NFC West champion. NEXT: vs. ARI in Mexico City
1. STEELERS 2-1 1 2 1 8 21
Pittsburgh's drive to tie the game was just as impressive as New England's comeback to take the lead. Coming off a 15-1 season, they dominated their first two opponents and then lost a close game to the defending Super Bowl champions. Since they've been more consistent than the Patriots this year, I think it's fair for them to stay at number one. NEXT: Bye week, then at SD
2. EAGLES 2-1 2 4 4 5 27
Eagles are this high for two reasons: First, our pre-season projections had them as the best team in the NFL, and second, they stomped all over the 49ers. But they haven't looked impressive in two out of three games. The Akers injury is killing them on both field goals and kickoffs. Do you really want a subpar kicker to face Dante Hall? NEXT: at KC
3. BENGALS 3-0 3 1 5 1 9
The best team in the NFL through three games. Really. See extended commentary below. NEXT: vs. HOU — Houston? Man, you have got to be kidding me.
4. COLTS 3-0 6 6 9 6 22
Us hate beauty. Us love ugliness. Is big crime for Peyton Manning to throw touchdown pass on Bizarro World. NEXT: at TEN
5. BUCS 3-0 5 3 15 2 12
For two years, the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings have said that the Bucs were better than their record. Two years ago, they went 7-9 and ranked 8th. Last year, they went 5-11 but ranked 16th. Our preseason projection had them winning the NFC South, but our brains simply couldn't believe it. In the battle of cold, heartless stats vs. human scouting, this is a win for cold, heartless stats. NEXT: vs. DET
6. PATRIOTS 2-1 7 14 13 12 16
This was one of the all-time great New England regular season wins: they came from behind on the road, against one of the best teams in the NFL, after losing two of their most important players to injury early in the contest. But that doesn't change the fact that they lost to Carolina, and not by a slim margin either. Thus, the lower ranking. The bad news, of course, is the loss of Rodney Harrison for the season, and Matt Light for most of it. The good news is that they may have just put their two hardest games of the season behind them, and as important as Harrison was -- dare I disrespect him? -- he wasn't as important to the Patriots as Takeo Spikes and Chad Pennington were to the Bills and Jets. NEXT: vs. SD
7. BILLS 1-2 4 15 21 10 4
The Bills had the NFL's best defense for the second half of last year, and looked pretty good coming into this season, which is why they get ranked this high in a formula that isn't entirely based on 2005. But the defense hasn't been close to last year's level, giving up a lot of yards on second and third down, and it is going to get even worse without Spikes. Are the Saints the cure for J.P. Losman's woes? NEXT: vs. NO in San Antonio
8. CHARGERS 1-2 14 11 3 25 7
Very impressive offensive performance as your Super Bowl XLI Champion San Diego Chargers get off the schneid. NEXT: at NE
9. SEAHAWKS 2-1 18 9 2 20 23
First week loss to Jacksonville looks like a bit of a fluke, as the Seahawks have put up two straight games with big offense and slightly above-average defense. See extended commentary below. NEXT: at WAS
10. PANTHERS 1-2 8 18 19 11 11
People are going to get whiplash jumping on and off the Carolina bandwagon. See extended commentary below. NEXT: vs GB in the renewal of that annual tradition, the "Wow, that's not such a great matchup after all" Monday night game.
11. CHIEFS 2-1 10 13 8 21 15
Monday loss was like watching the words we wrote in Pro Football Prospectus 2005 come to life. Without Willie Roaf, the Chiefs offensive line looked bad. If the offense is hitting on all cylinders, this team is extremely dangerous, but too many of those cylinders are old. Old players get injured more often, and the only Kansas City star with a trustworthy backup is Priest Holmes. By the way, the book also noted that Tony Gonzalez is 29, the age when the greatest tight ends all started to decline. Gonzalez is averaging 41 yards per game this year (with no touchdowns) after 79 yards per game in 2004. NEXT: vs. PHI
12. BRONCOS 2-1 15 19 18 16 19
Game-by-game ratings for this season: -54%, -5%, 48%. The offense has improved each game, the defense has improved each game, and the special teams have improved each game. If they lose this week, they'll be 2-0 in Colorado, 0-2 in Florida, and 0-0 in the other 48 states. NEXT: at JAC
13. JAGUARS 2-1 12 10 17 7 3
Story of the season has been Byron Leftwich pulling the offense out of the fire on third-and-long, making up for another stuff-a-riffic year from the aging Fred Taylor. Offensive DVOA ranks 20th on first down, 22nd on second down, 8th on third down. If that can continue, the defense is good enough for this team to get into the playoffs. NEXT: vs. DEN
14. DOLPHINS 2-1 16 8 16 4 10
The league's top run defense DVOA after three games, and it didn't exactly come against cupcake opponents. They stopped the Denver running factory, last year's rushing leader Curtis Martin, and now the Carolina committee. Offense has been delightfully mediocre instead of the train wreck we all expected going into the season. How happy are people who bet the Miami over right now? NEXT: Bye week, then at BUF
15. GIANTS 2-1 9 5 6 22 1
The greatly improved, playoff caliber defense of the New York Giants -- Wow, I remember it like it was yesterday. Well, three days ago, actually. Jumping to the conclusion that the Giants are overrated based on one game against LaDainian Tomlinson is as rash as jumping to the conclusion that the Giants have a good defense based on games against Arizona and New Orleans. For now, Giants fans should just be happy that Eli Manning, after a terrible rookie year, has put together two very nice games. NEXT: vs. STL
16. COWBOYS 2-1 13 12 10 17 17
Dallas' secondary looks awful, even though Anthony Henry has played reasonably well most of the time, and Roy Williams is a great linebacker. Or would be, if he played linebacker. If Dallas doesn't get a pass rush, they're sunk. NEXT: at OAK — Randy Moss is licking his chops (but only because he has the munchies).
17. FALCONS 2-1 20 17 11 19 20
This one needs explanation. Football Outsiders stats are notoriously down on the Falcons in general and Michael Vick in particular. Last year, the Falcons played like an 8-8 team and lucked into an 11-5 record. They don't rank very high based on 2005 performance either because both wins have been close. That being said, the biggest reason why our projections were so down on Atlanta was their schedule. With all the injuries in the AFC East, Carolina looking schizo, and New Orleans perpetually on the road, that schedule doesn't look so tough anymore. NEXT: vs. MIN
18. JETS 1-2 11 24 28 13 18
This elevator is headed straight down, but at least they have a good field goal kicker. It's hard to figure out what caused the sudden disintegration of the offensive line and Curtis Martin did in fact get worn down by all those carries last year. Where are they hiding Derrick Blaylock? The worst problem, of course, is the quarterback situation, at least until Vinny plays himself back into shape. This is what we wrote about Brooks Bollinger in Pro Football Prospectus 2005: "If your team ends up with him under center, it's time to turn off the TV." Click. NEXT: at BAL
19. REDSKINS 2-0 19 22 23 9 31
Done with mirrors. Every year some team jumps out to a good start based on close victories even though our numbers say that team is getting outplayed by opponents. Two years ago it was Carolina, but the Panthers turned it on in the playoffs and went all the way to the Super Bowl. Last year it was Jacksonville, which crashed and burned in the second half. This year, Washington. I have a feeling that Joe Gibbs is going to get what's behind door number two, not door number one. But it will be fun to see just how big a cushion the Seattle cornerbacks give Santana Moss. Has any cornerback ever played 20 yards off the line? NEXT: vs. SEA
20. RAMS 2-1 21 16 12 14 24
The defense has looked surprisingly average so far, but remember that the three offenses they have faced are ranked 22nd, 27th and 29th. NEXT: at NYG
21. BEARS 1-2 17 7 26 3 6
The winner of the "team that most confuses the rating system early" award, because their Week 2 win against Detroit was so absurdly one-sided. The defensive rating for the game against Cincinnati is actually above-average, because Kyle Orton's interceptions put them in bad field position on drive after drive. Cincinnati's first two scoring drives started at the Chicago 18-yard line and the Chicago 36-yard line. NEXT: Bye week, then at CLE
22. RAIDERS 0-3 24 21 7 30 28
Oakland is ranked this low because it is too early to have strong adjustments for strength of schedule. But Oakland did draw the short straw in the early schedule lottery, with both defending conference champions and 2-1 Kansas City, and the Raiders weren't blown off the field in any of those games. NEXT: vs. DAL, and don't be surprised by an Oakland upset.
23. VIKINGS 1-2 31 27 29 15 13
Well, those were the Vikings we've all come to know and love. Considering the fact that both of their losses came to teams that are now 3-0, maybe the issue was not that the Vikings are bad, but rather that the Bucs and Bengals are good. They still have six games left against the terrible teams in their own division, so they should still be the favorites to win the NFC North. As for this week, the interior of the Atlanta offensive line has looked really good this season, so this is an important week for the Williams brothers, Kevin and Pat. Minnesota might not pull off the upset on the road, but given Atlanta's tendency to play close games, they make quite the attractive underdog. NEXT: at ATL
24. SAINTS 1-2 23 26 20 28 25
That first win was a nice story, but they've been hideous on both offense and defense for two weeks. I said before the season that this was a mediocre team of fantasy football stars who specialize in gaining yardage rather than playing good situational football, and I'm sticking to it. NEXT: vs. BUF in San Antonio
25. TITANS 1-2 27 23 25 23 5
They're really better than this, considering that their big blowout loss came to the team at number one. Check out the schedule from Week 7 on: Tennessee is the most likely team to make a surprising playoff push in the second half and become a sleeper pick for 2006. NEXT: vs. IND
26. RAVENS 0-2 22 31 30 26 30
The offensive struggles were expected. That defensive rating is bad because the Ravens have played only two games and one of them was against Indianapolis, back before they replaced Peyton Manning with Trent Dilfer. This defense has had a week off to prepare to take on Brooks Bollinger. At home. You do the math. NEXT: vs. NYJ
27. BROWNS 1-2 25 20 14 27 8
For what it is worth, they are better than Green Bay. NEXT: Bye week, then vs. CHI
28. PACKERS 0-3 26 25 24 26 26
According to DVOA, Green Bay has been the league's most consistent team. Unfortunately, they've been consistently bad, with single-game ratings of -47%, -40% and -44%. Next: at CAR
Rk Team W-L Last Wk 2005 Only Offense Rk Defense Rk Sp. Tms Rk
29. CARDINALS 0-3 28 29 22 29 29
Our book Pro Football Prospectus 2005 predicted: "(Kurt) Warner hasn't played a full season since 2001 so (Josh) McCown will see starts in 2005." Score that one correct. Next prediction to get tested: "On October 2 in Mexico City, (Neil) Rackers will set a new NFL record by kicking a 65-yard field goal against San Francisco." NEXT: vs. SF in Mexico City
30. LIONS 1-1 29 30 31 18 32
That's your first place Detroit Lions. Their first two games were so different from each other that it is hard to tell what will happen over the course of the season. This week, at least, they are going to lose. NEXT: at TB
31. TEXANS 0-2 30 32 32 32 14
Have you ever heard that old football adage, "You build a team from the lines out?" Well, then, you're one up on the Texans. Next: at CIN
32. 49ERS 1-2 32 28 27 31 2
Continuing their steady climb from league doormat to 2006 NFC West champion. NEXT: vs. ARI in Mexico City