Mock's Locks week 1. Smoke 'em if you got em

[watermock]

I just am pasting the USA Today spread and O/U. I'm not ready to make picks yet, but I'll be doing this every week. Everyone is happy to keep their own tabs on their predictions. All predictions will be based on Sheridan's spread/Points on either tuesday or wednesday night. (or whenever I get around to it...the point is, it will be midweek. We have an early game thursday so it's up a little early.

Noone has to pick every game. I pick three or four. Over/Under locks are totally legit. Or you can pick every one, but this isn't pickem, it's locks. Dead Ringers, Can't lose, take it to the bank, rape the bookie stone cold thefts. In other words, Real Betting. I'm not going to mess with money lines, VBookie will take care of that for us. For multiple picks straight up, Pick em will be fine.

I will have my three or four picks up by tommorow night.
Good Luck

Remember, you must judge your win or loss against the spread. In case of a tie, it's a push, and noone wins or loses. So if you bet the over under at 38 and 38 is scored, it's a push. It's impossible to have a push with a half point spread, thats why it's called a hook. Someone has to lose. Hooks are nasty critters. :nono:

I'm sure most of you know this, but the HOME TEAM is listed in CAPS. The the favorite is listed on the left hand column. Home underdog would be a team in the right hand side in CAPS, like Miami. That is called a home underdog, or dog. The favorite must win by more than the number. The underdog must lose by less than that number, or just win outright, or tie of course. the Over/Under is the TOTAL amount of points scored. You bet either side. Ties are again, a push. ^5 Again good luck if you care to play. At any rate, I will be making weekly picks, anyone is welcome to play and compare. :boxing:
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NFL REGULAR SEASON WEEK 1
Thursday, Sept. 8
NEW ENGLAND 7½ Oakland 49½
Sunday, Sept. 11
Denver 4½ MIAMI 38
Cincinnati 3½ CLEVELAND 43½
BUFFALO 5½ Houston 39
PITTSBURGH 7 Tennessee 40
WASHINGTON 6 Chicago 33
CAROLINA 7 New Orleans 45½
MINNESOTA 6 Tampa Bay 43
JACKSONVILLE 3 Seattle 39
KANSAS CITY 3 N.Y. Jets 47½
N.Y. GIANTS 2½ Arizona 37
St. Louis 5 SAN FRANCISCO 46
DETROIT 3 Green Bay 45½
SAN DIEGO 4½ Dallas 40
Indianapolis 3 BALTIMORE 47
Monday, Sept. 12
Philadelphia 1 ATLANTA 41½

[SoCalBronco]

SoCal's Sure Bets

Take St. Louis -5 at San Francisco
Take Kansas City -3 at home, versus the NY Jets
Take Pittsburgh -7 at home, versus Tennessee

[watermock]

I made a couple errors and fixed them. The home team is in Caps, the favorite in the left hand column. The last number is the over/under. Sorry.

[SportinOne]

My Sure Bet: Denver -4.5 at Miami and bet your house on this one. And then bet the rest of what you own on the over because Denver will score 38 themselves.

Okay so take Denver to win, but history tells me to bet under. We'll see.

[watermock]

I try to not go homer, but I really like Denver covering. Until Denver gets respect in Vegas and around the country, they will be undervalued. Homer pick but like it on the board that I see.

Denver covers the - 4.5 @ Miami. This smells like a late cover by Miami, but they will need a TD, and run out of time/downs.

I also like the Hornheads @ home -6 to cover over Tampa. Pep is on fire.

Damn, edit, I forgot that that storm will be over Atlanta monday night. I withdraw that one.

Kansas City-3 to cover at home over the Jets.

Man, I keep messing this up. I think I screwed up who had who. Sounds like my FF team. Might be a rough week for the mockster.

Broncos, Vikings, Kansas City. This doesn't sound good to me. Still we have east coast odds here. This is very scary because as a tyke I followed the Chefs, then the Vikings, then the Broncos. If I go 0-3, I'm heading to Montana.

[watermock]

BTW, I don't really care if you change your picks within a reasonable time...it's not Vegas. You make a pick in Vegas, you hold the ticket. If your making picks and want to adjust them, that's fine, lets just do it while we are doing our stuff. After a couple hours, try to lock them in. I'm done, and to the window.

[Arkie]

hmmm... Bosko sez

Take CLEVELAND (+3½) vs. Cincinnati
Take MINNESOTA (-6) vs. Tampa Bay
Take Green Bay (+3) vs. DETROIT

[Play2win]

SoCal's Sure Bets

Take St. Louis -5 at San Francisco
Take Kansas City -3 at home, versus the NY Jets
Take Pittsburgh -7 at home, versus Tennessee
I wouldn't be so sure about betting against the Jets...

[SoCalBronco]

I wouldn't be so sure about betting against the Jets...

Unfortuneatly, the Mullets are going to thrash them. Jets will score but the Chiefs will beat them by around 10 or so. Jets DL is going to get stoned by the Chiefs OL. They lost Ferguson. And they have a rookie who is going to try and cover Tony G.

Rape.

[watermock]

I goofed my bets up again...dang. WTF. I had SF playing the Chefs. OK it's all fixed.

It's really hard to get a feel early.

[watermock]

OK OK it's all straightend out now. Sorry for the baloney stupidity. I've been out changing fuel and painting off heights and very tired.

I just want to make it clear. Sorry. BTW I ran the Exxon Valzez for a while.

Denver minus 4.5
Minnesota minus 6
Kansas City Minus 3

Those picks sound incredibly homer, but I like them, but I'm terrified. I was on the over with the Atlanta game but who knows with a storm offcoast.

It would be kinda cool if everyone just kept a record of their w/l record btw.

[TheReverend]

You cut and pasted Vegas odds...

[Sir Mawn]

I love the Rams and the Broncos

I like the Vikings and the over.

Cleveland??? No way.. I actually like Cincy in that one!

[rbackfactory80]

SoCal's Sure Bets

Take St. Louis -5 at San Francisco
Take Kansas City -3 at home, versus the NY Jets
Take Pittsburgh -7 at home, versus Tennessee


I dont know about the jets game being a sure thing but I do think you are crazy if you like the rams on the road. That team year after year plays 100 times better at home. When they go on the road they look like the worst team in football. I understand the san fran situation but I still would never take St. Louis on the road.

[watermock]

You cut and pasted Vegas odds...

I exlplained I would be using Sarigan's odds from USA today very cleary. Yes yes, he sets odds in vegas. I thought I cleared this up.

[watermock]

You cut and pasted Vegas odds...

No I didn't. I said that those odds would be win or loss on wednesday. I put the odds up early because of the early thursday night game. They are the odds USA TODAY uses, and I post them, I really don't care who made them. Of course they are Vegas odds. They are a decent benchmark. If you don't want to play with the spread on wednesday on the biggest newspaper on the net with vegas odds, don't play. Jesus Christ. Seems fair to me. If the odds are bad, that gives you an advantage right there genius?

[watermock]

I'm not going to lead idiots around.

You take your picks off of USA Today Sangarins odds in USA today. It's free.

Honestly, I was just going to place my own picks here. Then I thought it might be fun to have a competition. So I am scared am I? I laid the parameters out completely. Let me repeat them for you that seem to have a problem. Since you can't seem to find USA today and the spread, I will post the spread mid week. The spread as posted will stick when posted. It's a consensus spread. If its a stupid spread, bet against it, it's just that!

I didn't make it up! Now shut up and put three bets down or go the hell away...thes gnats are bothering me....are you women or what? Nitpicking like some thong ridden whatever.

It's simple, make three picks, and track your choices.

Why won't we do this. I forget it, and show you how to get 70% on bets and you can all watch. OK? Get it together, it's not rocket science.

[TheManeMan]

Buffalo / Houston over 39

Detroit -3 vs. Green Bay

Indy -3 vs. Baltimore

[Atlas]

SoCal's Sure Bets

Take St. Louis -5 at San Francisco
Take Kansas City -3 at home, versus the NY Jets
Take Pittsburgh -7 at home, versus Tennessee

The only one there I would touch is Pittsburgh covering

I like the Ravens as a home underdog. I think they'll teach Peyton a thing or three.

[BritBronco Maniac]

Calm down Mock, those lines are pretty accurate. Good job setting up the thread.

I like the Rams, but as highlighted above their road record stinks.
Same goes for Denver, they have never won in Miami from 6 attempts.
So I could see both those teams winning but not covering.
I have backed them both myself, but since this thread is about XXX LOCKS, i will stick to one selection this week.

Minnesota - 6

You can take the Vikings to the bank every year in the first few weeks.

In case anyone's interested, I have also backed the Bengals myself (although worried about their habitual slow starts)

[llayne]

I like the Rams, but as highlighted above their road record stinks.
Same goes for Denver, they have never won in Miami from 6 attempts.
So I could see both those teams winning but not covering.


I have also read about the Broncos playing horrible in the Sunshine state, but many of those past teams were good teams. This fins team is need of a lot of help and I think the Broncos will cover. I also like the Rams because no one is giving them much love. Cinci should cover and I would take the redskins bears in the under.

[Broncoman13]

I dont know about the jets game being a sure thing but I do think you are crazy if you like the rams on the road. That team year after year plays 100 times better at home. When they go on the road they look like the worst team in football. I understand the san fran situation but I still would never take St. Louis on the road.


St Louis minus the points is the safest bet on the board! Surely a lot safer than Denver minus the points IN Miami. What are we 0-9 lifetime in Miami. I take a 10-9 win and run with it!

[ND Bronco Fan]

Denver minus 4.5
Minnesota minus 6
Kansas City Minus 3




I bet on two of those three last week already, it pains me to know that we think alike :hitself:

[rbackfactory80]

St Louis minus the points is the safest bet on the board! Surely a lot safer than Denver minus the points IN Miami. What are we 0-9 lifetime in Miami. I take a 10-9 win and run with it!

First of all I am sure you have heard the saying road favorites are sucker bets, and that is times two when applying to the rams.

[Hotrod]

KANSAS CITY 3 N.Y. Jets 47½ = Over
WASHINGTON 6 Chicago 33 = Da Bears win this game
JACKSONVILLE 3 Seattle 39 = Hags +3

[Rascal]

NFL REGULAR SEASON WEEK 1
Thursday, Sept. 8
NEW ENGLAND 7½ Oakland 49½
Sunday, Sept. 11
Denver 4½ MIAMI 38
Cincinnati 3½ CLEVELAND 43½
BUFFALO 5½ Houston 39
PITTSBURGH 7 Tennessee 40
WASHINGTON 6 Chicago 33
CAROLINA 7 New Orleans 45½
MINNESOTA 6 Tampa Bay 43
JACKSONVILLE 3 Seattle 39
KANSAS CITY 3 N.Y. Jets 47½
N.Y. GIANTS 2½ Arizona 37
St. Louis 5 SAN FRANCISCO 46
DETROIT 3 Green Bay 45½
SAN DIEGO 4½ Dallas 40
Indianapolis 3 BALTIMORE 47
Monday, Sept. 12
Philadelphia 1 ATLANTA 41½

Thanks for setting this up mock.

I'll take St Louis -5, Cincinnati -3 1/2, and KC -3.

[Pezman]

My hammerlock goes to St Looooey over the 49ers.

Others that I have eyeballed as good bets are
KC over the Jets
Pittsburg over the Titans

[Rascal]

I think the Steelers will win, but I am not sure about that margine especially with the way their offense has been struggling.

[bro1ncos]

I'll take:

St Louis -5
Pitt vs Tenn under 40
New Orleans +7

[watermock]

I'm nervous about all my picks, I just wanted to get the balls in play. If I can hit 2 of 3 I will be very happy. I went homer. I just think Denver is going to beat the crap out of Miami. I really do.

[Hunted]

I will take

Denver at minus 4 1/2
Da Bears at plus 6
Rams at minus 5

[bombquixote]

hmmm... Bosko sez

Take CLEVELAND (+3½) vs. Cincinnati
Take MINNESOTA (-6) vs. Tampa Bay
Take Green Bay (+3) vs. DETROIT

hilarious. i'd take the opposite on ever one of those.

[Broncoman13]

First of all I am sure you have heard the saying road favorites are sucker bets, and that is times two when applying to the rams.


News flash... Steven Jackson doesn't rely on speed...he's a combo of mad power and nice speed. He'll run crazy and Bulger will have his way with a Middlebrooksless Niner backfield!

Put a 100 on it RBF80..you'll be happy you did!

[TheReverend]

No way KC beats the Jets. No ****ING way they win by 3.

[watermock]

No way KC beats the Jets. No ****ING way they win by 3.

Make your picks. This is obviously too complicated for you.

[broncogary]

I hate to take 3 road favorites, but here they are:

Cincy -3.5 at CLEVE
Denver -4.5 at MIA
St. Louis -5 at SF

[broncos love]

I would be very careful about betting with the rams on the road because they
can either be really good or stink and the niners have nothing to lose .



Denver -5
houston +5.5
Tampa +6

[Rock Chalk]

NFL REGULAR SEASON WEEK 1
Thursday, Sept. 8
NEW ENGLAND 7½ Oakland 49½
Sunday, Sept. 11
Denver 4½ MIAMI 38
Cincinnati 3½ CLEVELAND 43½
BUFFALO 5½ Houston 39
PITTSBURGH 7 Tennessee 40
WASHINGTON 6 Chicago 33
CAROLINA 7 New Orleans 45½
MINNESOTA 6 Tampa Bay 43
JACKSONVILLE 3 Seattle 39
KANSAS CITY 3 N.Y. Jets 47½
N.Y. GIANTS 2½ Arizona 37
St. Louis 5 SAN FRANCISCO 46
DETROIT 3 Green Bay 45½
SAN DIEGO 4½ Dallas 40
Indianapolis 3 BALTIMORE 47
Monday, Sept. 12
Philadelphia 1 ATLANTA 41½
Take Philly to cover
Take the UNDER in Buffalo HOUSTON
Take the UNDER in Cincinnatti CLEVELAND
Take Indy to cover

[Broncoman13]

Take Philly to cover
Take the UNDER in Buffalo HOUSTON
Take the UNDER in Cincinnatti CLEVELAND
Take Indy to cover


Not bad, not bad at all. I'm staying away from anything Cleveland related though... need to see how they do with a new coach,QB,DL,RB, etc.!!

Philly over Atlanta is a good pick. You have to wonder about Philly's inability to stop the run though... coupled with the fact that Gibbs' run game is 2nd to 1.

Houston can't score and Losman is a big ? Nice pick!

Balt. has some talent on offense now...QB isn't one of those talents!

Not sure I'd run a parlay on those but I'd feel comfortable betting on each of them individually knowing that I'd probably hit on 3 of 4.

[Rock Chalk]

Ohio rivalry, I think it'll be a good defensive battle. Dont get me wrong I think that Rudi and Chad Johnson are fine players and I think Carson Palmer will eventually be a really fine QB, but they are missing pieces and Cleveland cant even decide who is going to get the bulk of the carries over there with Suggs hurt.

Philly on the other hand, will handily stop Atlanta. Vick and Crumpler are really the only threats on that team and mostly, just Vick. Atlanta is a decent enough team, but Philly is way deeper on both O and D and I think that by halftime, Atlanta will be shaking their fists in frustration. Its not Tom Brady under center afterall.

Normally I wouldnt take an under with Houston involved because of Carr, Johnson and Double D, but they are looking really rusty and Carr is having timing issues that will probably need a week or three to be worked out. Once they get clicking on all cylinders this year, they will be a much tougher team, but they are coming out of the gate weak. Not to mention that Losman factor you mentioned. While I think the world of McGahee, Losman is a Boller clone at best and will, at best, have a year like Boller had last year.

Speaking of Boller, what the hell is everyone swingin on this guy's johnson? He's horrible and I think the only reason Billick is sticking with him at this point is because he picked him and wants to be known as an offensive guy. Baltimore's defense is still good, but its not that dominant force that won a superbowl and, essentially, thats what you need to stop PayMeATon.

[watermock]

Bonus pick of the week: Double secret probation double lock. (I hope) New England/Oakland and the under. 50 seems a little high, more imaginary than real.

[Hunted]

That 50 points on the Pats and Faiders looks low now.

[watermock]

hilarious. i'd take the opposite on ever one of those.

I lost two of three, but the fools that picked Arizona will have amnesia this week.

Most irritating is picking the Horneheads at home to cover and Broncos to even to cover against a marginal team. OK, no more Homer picks.

Broncos Mock's Lock. Loss

Vikings mock's lock, Loss

KC mock's win. blowout. What a weekend. UGG.

NE vs. Oakland...push..50 on the button.

1-2-1.

How did others do? I didn't do well obviously. I knew Arizona would throw an egg but didn't expect Parker to go for 161.

[Rascal]

I lost one...damn Rams.

[Hogan11]

Junk science confirmed once again.

[Hotrod]

KANSAS CITY 3 N.Y. Jets 47½ = Over
WASHINGTON 6 Chicago 33 = Da Bears win this game
JACKSONVILLE 3 Seattle 39 = Hags +3

Beautiful Ha!

[Rascal]

LOL!!

I would advise that you go to Las Vegas.