Top Picks aren't worth the $$$

[Atlas]

I have always know this to be true but I have never seen a study on it before.

Study: Pricing study finds top picks not worth cost

Aug. 25, 2005
CBS SportsLine.com wire reports




RALEIGH, N.C. -- The San Francisco 49ers spent weeks studying their choices before picking Alex Smith with the No. 1 selection in this year's draft -- a decision that will cost the team $49.5 million.

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It might be years before the team knows if that six-year deal with Smith is money well spent.

But a pair of economists say the Niners would have ended up with a lot more had they spent the money in the second round.

In a study under review for publication, the University of Chicago's Richard Thaler and Yale University's B. Cade Massey applied their science to the annual task facing general managers in the NFL. Using statistics such as "yards gained per dollar of compensation," the pair concluded the NFL's top draft picks are overpriced - an insight they shared with NFL teams this spring and summer.

"We've been contacted by a number of teams. In fact, we've spent some time with one team," said Massey, who left a position at Duke this summer. "Whether any decision makers are buying it and are going to act on it, we don't know yet."

He and Thaler admit when they tell team executives they'd be better off with "the middle pick of the second round rather than the middle pick of the first round, some of them think we're crazy."

"We're not saying that (lower-valued) player's better, but he's paid so much less that the team does better on him than they do on the top guy," he said. "It's not necessarily that players are overvalued or draft picks are overvalued, it's that high draft picks are overvalued relative to low draft picks."

The difference is so stark when salary is considered, Massey said, that the value a team can expect from the top pick in the second round is better than the top choice of the first, such as Smith.

"We thought that the value of the draft picks would decline gently, but instead they actually increase into the second round," he said.

The pair's research comes in a field of study that examines how people make economic decisions and the point at which using reason and the evidence of past results breaks down to relying on intuition and chance.

Economists say humans are often overconfident about their own abilities and knowledge, and they fail to consider a wide enough range of possibilities before making an important choice. That's why many people believe they'll buy and sell costly technology stocks or resort homes at just the right time, or that a player selected in the first round is inherently more valuable than one picked in the second.

In their study, Massey and Thaler single out the New England Patriots as a franchise that understands that buying expensive stars imposes costs elsewhere on the roster.

The Patriots have won three Super Bowl titles in the past four years, led by quarterback Tom Brady. The sixth-round draft pick who was a fourth-stringer as a rookie might be the poster boy for the economists' research: Brady has the best record as a starter of any quarterback with at least 40 starts in the game's modern era




Until he signed a new contract in May, Brady was a financial bargain. His previous contract had a total value of about $30 million; it was worth less than the signing bonus alone given to Indianapolis quarterback and two-time league MVP Peyton Manning when he signed a new contract last year.





But Patriots coach Bill Belichick argues teams don't have much choice about how much to pay draft picks. First-round picks may be overpaid, as the economists suggest, but the league has a pay scale that largely predetermines how much rookies can expect.

"The 10th guy makes more than the 11th. The eighth guy makes (less) than the seventh guy. The 15th guy makes more than the 16th guy does," Belichick said.

"Wherever a guy is picked, that pretty much represents where his contract is going to be as a rookie. So, in terms of overpaying or underpaying those guys, you have a rookie pool. Every team pretty much has that money allotted to sign the picks that they have based on the slots they were taken in. It comes out pretty, pretty equitably."

And there are other reasons than on-field performance for drafting early, said Andrew Zimbalist, a professor at Smith College and an expert on sports economics. The fans, just as much as the executives in the front office, want the stars of the college game to play for their team on Sundays.

"It may be that teams opt to go for high-round picks because it generates more fan excitement and strengthens the fans' perception of the legitimacy of the owners' competitive effort," Zimbalist said.

Massey and Thaler wondered the same thing, but concluded there just aren't that many players capable of making up for their high salary with what they bring to the team off the field.

"In any case, if high draft picks had more fan appeal this should show up in their (veteran) contracts, and we find no evidence for it," they said.

[Atlas]

I think if Denver's pick from Washington is a top 10 pick I would like to see them move down in the first round and pick up another 2nd rounder. It makes a lot of sense cap wise and Denver can still get a top player.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

I think if Denver's pick from Washington is a top 10 pick I would like to see them move down in the first round and pick up another 2nd rounder. It makes a lot of sense cap wise and Denver can still get a top player.

It might make sense cap-wise, but there's a reason why guys go Top 10, because there's probably a near consensus that more than a couple have a chance at being elite players. You don't get that by trading down and picking up another 2nd. That's when you start throwing **** up against the wall and hope that you hit on a guy that every team misevaluated (like Portis). It's nice that some PhDs took the time to study what most NFL fans could tell you, if you hit on a pick outside the 1st round you're in great shape because they're signed for a couple years for peanuts. The other thing that's not mentioned in the article, is that Top 10s (and most QBs) usually have a lot of incentives built into their deals and people simple repeat their "max-out" as their true contract size.

I'd rather Denver take the chance with a high pick and try to get someone they think is elite, than to trade down and hope they get lucky just to save a few bucks on the cap. That smacks of the chicken**** move by the Chargers in '01 when they traded out of the 1st overall because they were gun-shy on Vick because of what happened with Leaf.

[Traveler]

I'd rather Denver take the chance with a high pick and try to get someone they think is elite, than to trade down and hope they get lucky just to save a few bucks on the cap. That smacks of the chicken**** move by the Chargers in '01 when they traded out of the 1st overall because they were gun-shy on Vick because of what happened with Leaf.

So true! We've rarely had the chance to select an elite player. So now that we may have the chance, we have to take advantage of it. My concern is (and I hate to say this) even if Denver were to get a top ten choice next year, I'm not so confident that they won't have us scratching our heads and asking what the ****? But I am tired of them trying to make chicken salad from chicken ****! Especially along the DL.

Even though it looks as if the 3 CB's taken this year will pan out, I've stopped expecting much from a Bronco draft because they seem so unorthodox.

[watermock]

No, we don't move down. There are about 5 top notch LT in this draft.

[fontaine]

It might make sense cap-wise, but there's a reason why guys go Top 10, because there's probably a near consensus that more than a couple have a chance at being elite players. You don't get that by trading down and picking up another 2nd.


It really depends on the position. QBs, no matter how highly ranked, usually don't do squat until their 4th/5th season, if they pan out at all. It makes more sense to pick a guy that fits your system rather than just draft the highest ranked QB for the sake of it.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

and Denver is (most likely) not going to be in the typical position of a team picking in the Top 10 if that's where the Skins end up. This is not a "make-or-break" pick for the franchise or someone like Courtney or Gerard as high 1sts on an expansion team who must contribute right away, this is a good team who made a good trade that ended up with a high pick. They have the ability to take a chance on the guy they think has the most upside and pick again later in the 1st.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

It really depends on the position. QBs, no matter how highly ranked, usually don't do squat until their 4th/5th season, if they pan out at all. It makes more sense to pick a guy that fits your system rather than just draft the highest ranked QB for the sake of it.

4th or 5th year is stretching it for high 1st QBs because those guys will have gotten a shot by that time, and you can probably tell who is going to be a player and who is not.

[fontaine]

4th or 5th year is stretching it for high 1st QBs because those guys will have gotten a shot by that time, and you can probably tell who is going to be a player and who is not.

True enough, but even after they bomb out, different coaches will give them 2nd/3rd chances.

I bring up the QB position because Denver will be picking at a spot next year where they'll have to (given Plummer's situation) draft a high rated signal caller and recent history dictates that draft slot in the first round is no indication of success when it comes to the QB position.

[Mediator12]

I believe that the Drafting of players is so Screwed UP with the amount of salary and especially Bonus money. 50% of first round players play beneath their potential the first two years and it gets worse after that. However, for some reason they get ludicrous Guaranteed Money. If they play beyond their Contract look out! The Call to Drew Rosenhaus is on the way. The Only way a team wins FINANCIALLY is if a guy PERFORMS as expected. That only happens about 10% of the time.

Vets are more apt to get screwed out of a job due to Draftees large salary cap numbers. Not starters mind you, but quality backups that know the League and the System of the team. That Freakin Sucks :hitself:

The Farm Systems of Baseball and European Soccer would do a lot of good for the quality of player on the NFL Field. However, the cost is well beyond the greedy bastages that own the teams would ever put up with. :moon:

[TheReverend]

I think if Denver's pick from Washington is a top 10 pick I would like to see them move down in the first round and pick up another 2nd rounder. It makes a lot of sense cap wise and Denver can still get a top player.

Or we could pick up a franchise mauler like D'Brick.

[NaptownChief]

1st round pay is definitely out of whack for what you get but it is really out of whack for top 5 picks or so. I would never want to pick in the top 5 with a few rare exceptions. The difference in talent available at 3, 4 and 5 is virtually the same as the talent available at 8-12 usually yet it will cost you nearly double. I remember in the 1999 draft Edgerrin James taken 4th got more money in his first year with performance incentives than Champ Bailey(taken 7th)had in his entire 5 or 6 year contract. I think it was close to double in just the first year despite both performing at a high level for their respective positions and only draft 3 picks later.

Over the long haul you need 1st round picks but you don't need the price tag that comes with top 5 picks.

[watermock]

1st round pay is definitely out of whack for what you get but it is really out of whack for top 5 picks or so. I would never want to pick in the top 5 with a few rare exceptions. The difference in talent available at 3, 4 and 5 is virtually the same as the talent available at 8-12 usually yet it will cost you nearly double. I remember in the 1999 draft Edgerrin James taken 4th got more money in his first year with performance incentives than Champ Bailey(taken 7th)had in his entire 5 or 6 year contract. I think it was close to double in just the first year despite both performing at a high level for their respective positions and only draft 3 picks later.

Over the long haul you need 1st round picks but you don't need the price tag that comes with top 5 picks.

Don't you allready know? The east coast media allready has Washington going 9-7. Portis has a chronic elbow and a weak knee, they lost coles, Gibbs wants to go back to NASCAR.

This is a 5-7 win team.

[NaptownChief]

Don't you allready know? The east coast media allready has Washington going 9-7. Portis has a chronic elbow and a weak knee, they lost coles, Gibbs wants to go back to NASCAR.

This is a 5-7 win team.


I would be surprised if they were better than 6-10....Only reason I think 6 wins is possible is due to the NFC being so poor. If they were an AFC West team I think 3-13 would be well within their reach.

[watermock]

I would be surprised if they were better than 6-10....Only reason I think 6 wins is possible is due to the NFC being so poor. If they were an AFC West team I think 3-13 would be well within their reach.

They have a pathetically easy schedule.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

PFT had an interesting idea this morning worth some discussion. They mentioned allowing the worst teams to select their draft position rather than locking them into the first pick so that they wouldn't have to spend their cap money on a player that was not the best fit for them.

[Ninjafied]

PFT had an interesting idea this morning worth some discussion. They mentioned allowing the worst teams to select their draft position rather than locking them into the first pick so that they wouldn't have to spend their cap money on a player that was not the best fit for them.
Why would you do that when there are plenty of other team willing to trade up and compensate you for it?

[watermock]

I have talke repeatedly about how having a top 10 pick isn't that great a gift.

I like next year's draft, particuliarly at LT. Depending on their season, there might be 5 LT in the top 15. I'm projecting between 5-13, so we will be able to draft a true LT if we want.

[NaptownChief]

Why would you do that when there are plenty of other team willing to trade up and compensate you for it?


Sometimes very willing to trade up. This year for example would have been tough to give away the #1 pick. There wasn't any Elway, Manning type QB talent that people saw as a must have and the other top talent were at positions that were very deep like RB. So the only thing the first overall pick would do for most teams is cost them an extra $15-20 million.

[Ninjafied]

Sometimes very willing to trade up. This year for example would have been tough to give away the #1 pick. There wasn't any Elway, Manning type QB talent that people saw as a must have and the other top talent were at positions that were very deep like RB. So the only thing the first overall pick would do for most teams is cost them an extra $15-20 million.
Which Manning do you mean, because Alex Smith is probably equal to Eli.

Well at least Washington was able to trade up :wiggle:

[jonny1]

I'd rather Denver take the chance with a high pick and try to get someone they think is elite, than to trade down and hope they get lucky just to save a few bucks on the cap. That smacks of the chicken**** move by the Chargers in '01 when they traded out of the 1st overall because they were gun-shy on Vick because of what happened with Leaf.

Considering they got LT and Brees, a player and a draft pick for that move, it's hard to argue with what they did.

[BroncoBuff]

I have talke repeatedly about how having a top 10 pick isn't that great a gift.

I like next year's draft, particuliarly at LT. Depending on their season, there might be 5 LT in the top 15. I'm projecting between 5-13, so we will be able to draft a true LT if we want.

Why an LT? "Little Mattie Lepsis" is on schedule to go to hawaii next year after Roaf retires! And he has plenty of tread left on the tires!

Or am I missing something here?

[Mediator12]

Why an LT? "Little Mattie Lepsis" is on schedule to go to hawaii next year after Roaf retires! And he has plenty of tread left on the tires!

Or am I missing something here?

Potential Salary cap concerns. Plus Lepsis would be better @ Guard down the road if they Got D'Brickashaw or another High End LT.

[NaptownChief]

Which Manning do you mean, because Alex Smith is probably equal to Eli.

Well at least Washington was able to trade up :wiggle:


The really good one.

[Mr. Trout]

Somehow the NFL has to set up a pay scale for rookies. That would alleviate all of the problems. I know their is a lot of hoops to jump through to do that but in my honest opinion it is necessary.

[Atlas]

It might make sense cap-wise, but there's a reason why guys go Top 10, because there's probably a near consensus that more than a couple have a chance at being elite players. You don't get that by trading down and picking up another 2nd. That's when you start throwing **** up against the wall and hope that you hit on a guy that every team misevaluated (like Portis). It's nice that some PhDs took the time to study what most NFL fans could tell you, if you hit on a pick outside the 1st round you're in great shape because they're signed for a couple years for peanuts..

That's not true though. Second round picks often have a higher success rate than the first rounders. It's not really throwing **** up against the wall as you say. How come every player personal had Courtney Brown and Gerrad Warren as the Best DE and DTs in their respect draft?? How come? Don't you think some organization would say nope we like so and so better. But that isn't the case these players are scouted by people and almost every team will have these people slotted the same way. It's because organizations don't like to gamble on early first round picks. They don't like to pass up on a Brown for another tackle because they don't want to look stupid so they draft Brown or a Warren. I believe that's why second rounders fair just as good as first rounders. It's because teams can go more with their gut and less with the consensous. That's what I like about Shanny, He will draft the player he likes best no matter where they are slotted. A lot of organizations don't have the balls to do that.

[NaptownChief]

Somehow the NFL has to set up a pay scale for rookies. That would alleviate all of the problems. I know their is a lot of hoops to jump through to do that but in my honest opinion it is necessary.


I think it is very possible that we could see a move to a fixed schedule with a fixed number of years for 1st rounders much like the NBA. The trade off would probably be made by making the full contract guaranteed also like the NBA. That would give the players some extra protection with the guarantee and give the teams a lot more protection like the NBA got when I think Big Dog Robinson got the last of the crazy 1st overall pick contracts.

The NFLPA won't be crazy about this that is for sure and will take a lot of concessions to get it done I would imagine...Maybe even something like taking the guaranteed contracts into the 2nd round. Who knows but something will eventaully happen after the money A.Smith and Ronnie Brown got this year.

[Mediator12]

I think it is very possible that we could see a move to a fixed schedule with a fixed number of years for 1st rounders much like the NBA. The trade off would probably be made by making the full contract guaranteed also like the NBA. That would give the players some extra protection with the guarantee and give the teams a lot more protection like the NBA got when I think Big Dog Robinson got the last of the crazy 1st overall pick contracts.

The NFLPA won't be crazy about this that is for sure and will take a lot of concessions to get it done I would imagine...Maybe even something like taking the guaranteed contracts into the 2nd round. Who knows but something will eventaully happen after the money A.Smith and Ronnie Brown got this year.

I think now would be a good time to bump my NEW CBA idea thread.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Considering they got LT and Brees, a player and a draft pick for that move, it's hard to argue with what they did.

Brees was not part of the trade, he was taken with the Chargers own 2nd and at the time. DB was not expected to last until the top of the 2nd so it's not like the Chargers knew he would be there at their pick. The guy also hadn't done dick until last season either.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

That's not true though. Second round picks often have a higher success rate than the first rounders. It's not really throwing **** up against the wall as you say. How come every player personal had Courtney Brown and Gerrad Warren as the Best DE and DTs in their respect draft?? How come? Don't you think some organization would say nope we like so and so better. But that isn't the case these players are scouted by people and almost every team will have these people slotted the same way. It's because organizations don't like to gamble on early first round picks. They don't like to pass up on a Brown for another tackle because they don't want to look stupid so they draft Brown or a Warren.

In your example, trading down just for the sake of trading down to save a few bucks and pick up an extra pick is going with the theory of "Let's try to get lucky with more picks than higher picks". It's still August. We don't know where the pick will be, who will be in the draft, or have a rough idea of where guys look to go and you're already saying Denver should trade down. And looking through the past 5 drafts ('00-'04), '01 is probably the only season where you could say that you'd rather have the 2nds over the 1sts.

This isn't a popularity contest where teams don't want everyone else to make fun of them for who they draft, so they draft who they think everyone else thinks should be picked at that spot. Courtney was pretty much the consensus #1 for the entire NFL season leading up to his being drafted. Lavar was the only guy the people thought could unseat him. Warren was not the consensus #1 tackle that year. The Browns went for the guy they thought was the best, other teams had Seymour as the best DT. These are NFL franchises, they're going to take who they think is best for their team

[NaptownChief]

Brees was not part of the trade, he was taken with the Chargers own 2nd and at the time. DB was not expected to last until the top of the 2nd so it's not like the Chargers knew he would be there at their pick. The guy also hadn't done dick until last season either.


Getting LT over Vick straight up was a hell of a deal but getting him and paying him far less money than the #1 pick was a monster bargain.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Getting LT over Vick straight up was a hell of a deal but getting him and paying him far less money than the #1 pick was a monster bargain.

For all the crap Vick receives, he's still won 2/3rds of his starts and has won 3 playoff games including the first ever road playoff win in Lambeau. LT might be the best RB in the NFL, but he's still only gone to the playoffs 1 time and last year was the first time they had a winning record in his time there.

[NaptownChief]

For all the crap Vick receives, he's still won 2/3rds of his starts and has won 3 playoff games including the first ever road playoff win in Lambeau. LT might be the best RB in the NFL, but he's still only gone to the playoffs 1 time and last year was the first time they had a winning record in his time there.



I believe he has only won 2 playoff games:

Year Opp Result | CMP ATT PYD PTD INT | RSH YD TD
---------------------+--------------------------+-----------------
2002 gnb W,27-7 | 13 25 117 1 0 | 10 64 0
2002 phi L,6-20 | 22 38 274 0 2 | 6 30 0
2004 ram W,47-17 | 12 16 82 2 0 | 8 119 0
2004 phi L,10-27 | 11 24 136 0 1 | 4 26 0
---------------------+--------------------------+-----------------
TOTAL | 58 103 609 3 3 | 28 239 0

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Ok, 2 playoff games more than LT2.

[Rohirrim]

Yeah, GMs can try to be conservative with the bucks - until a Reggie Bush comes out early and you have one of the top picks. Than your philosophy of money management goes down the tubes and you're slathering at the pick - just like all the other teams. It's called a feeding frenzy.

[NaptownChief]

Ok, 2 playoff games more than LT2.


If team success ever comes down to exclusively one player I will take LT every time...However it doesn't so I refuse to give credence to a 2-2 playoff record that has far more to do with team and playing in the weaker conference than anything Vick has done vs. Tomlinson.

[NFLBRONCO]

It might make sense cap-wise, but there's a reason why guys go Top 10, because there's probably a near consensus that more than a couple have a chance at being elite players. You don't get that by trading down and picking up another 2nd. That's when you start throwing **** up against the wall and hope that you hit on a guy that every team misevaluated (like Portis). It's nice that some PhDs took the time to study what most NFL fans could tell you, if you hit on a pick outside the 1st round you're in great shape because they're signed for a couple years for peanuts. The other thing that's not mentioned in the article, is that Top 10s (and most QBs) usually have a lot of incentives built into their deals and people simple repeat their "max-out" as their true contract size.

I'd rather Denver take the chance with a high pick and try to get someone they think is elite, than to trade down and hope they get lucky just to save a few bucks on the cap. That smacks of the chicken**** move by the Chargers in '01 when they traded out of the 1st overall because they were gun-shy on Vick because of what happened with Leaf.


I'd Rep you if I could again. Only way I would consider a trade down if it was an unbelievable offer and all the guys we really liked were off the board and felt similar talent was available 5-10 picks lower. I'm like you I hope if we have a high pick we use it and see what happens. I'm tired of missing out on guys picking at 25.

[phibacka31]

First off I totally agree with setting a salary cap, per say, for draftees. The first rounders, especially the top ten get WAY too much straight up. The team that ends up with them knows absolutely nothing of how they will do in the big NFL. These are college athletes that we pay as if they will be the savior of the team. They have to prove something in the NFL, before I start throwing money at them.
Second off I totally agree that the Broncos should jump at the oppurtunity to get a top ten guy. How often does this happen in this great organization? Mine and others point exactly. I believe next years dratf class is way too talented to pass on a top ten. That is totally crazy.

[Atlas]

In your example, trading down just for the sake of trading down to save a few bucks and pick up an extra pick is going with the theory of "Let's try to get lucky with more picks than higher picks". It's still August. We don't know where the pick will be, who will be in the draft, or have a rough idea of where guys look to go and you're already saying Denver should trade down. And looking through the past 5 drafts ('00-'04), '01 is probably the only season where you could say that you'd rather have the 2nds over the 1sts.


In Denver's drafts as a whoile I agree. The last few rounds Denver has drafted extremely well in the first round. What I'm saying Denver should do is if the Redskins pick is in the top ten trade down to the mid first round and collect another secondrounder in the process. I wouldtrade a #8 for a #19 and a 46. That is what the article was dealing with. Your options of getting a great player at #8 is basically the same as #18. Plus it makes sense financially and you get another top tier pick who in all likelyhjood could be your best player.

[Atlas]

For all the crap Vick receives, he's still won 2/3rds of his starts and has won 3 playoff games including the first ever road playoff win in Lambeau. LT might be the best RB in the NFL, but he's still only gone to the playoffs 1 time and last year was the first time they had a winning record in his time there.

He has only been in the league what 3 years? Last year he was injured all season so that shouldn't count. So in 2 seasons of play he has won 2/3 of his gfame took the loser Falcons to the playoffs and won in GB in January. His passing stats aren't great but he is a winner.

[jonny1]

Totally off subject, but . . .

Atlas, I loved Alzado too, but he is quite a come down from your usual avatars. 8-)

[Atlas]

Totally off subject, but . . .

Atlas, I loved Alzado too, but he is quite a come down from your usual avatars. 8-)

I did some really good bronco avatars so I thought I would bring them out.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Vick missed 1 game last year, he played in 5 games in '03.

[Atlas]

Vick missed 1 game last year, he played in 5 games in '03.

That's right. That's what I meant,,, sorry

[listopencil]

No, we don't move down. There are about 5 top notch LT in this draft.



I didn't know that. That kicks serious ass. I would love for us to get a "franchise" LT with the first pick next year. Then a D-Lineman. Then, I guess, we would have to go ahead and draft the obligatory 3 LB's and 3 RB's.

[jossjeff]

I was completely pissed off when Oakland traded up into the first round with the Jets.

Even though the price of trading up was really quite reasonable.

No, I was pissed off because the Raiders drooling over Fabian Washington and his blazing 40 time was one of the worst kept secrets in the NFL around draft time.

Then to top it off we reached for Stanford Routt and the early second, a move that I'm still convinced was designed to keep the mules from drafting him later in the round.

Meanwhile...Washington was recently demoted to 5th string behind just about everyone on the roster. Routt has shown a few flashes but calling him raw is an understatement.

In last years draft I would have been more than content to stay with two #2's and two #3's and take my chances with what dropped.

****ing Al Davis and his ****ing speed fetish....

It drives me crazy as a fan of this team.

Meanwhile, as seemingly it always works out for us, our later picks are looking solid. Morrison is an up and coming stud LB(3rd), Walter appears to be our QB of the future(3rd), and Anttaj Hawthorne(6th) may have been the biggest late round steal of the entire draft.

If I was running a team I would entertain trade offers to drop out of the first every year unless there was a player up there that I absolutely had to have.

You can't tell me that Tyler Brayton, Nnamdi Asomugha, Derrick Gibson, Sebastian Janikowski and Napolean Harris were must have players. I'm convinced all would have been available in the 2nd round and some would have been available even later.

To be fair Asomugha is having a very nice camp and is the favorite to start but it took him three years to earn the job keeping in mind Phil Buchanon was the #2 corner ahead of him. Jano is a fine kicker but I will and have argued that he was drafted about 30 spots too high for a kicker to be taken. Brayton is playing out of postion yet again, Gibson is still a major question mark at Safety, and Nap Harris was part of the Randy Moss deal.

In other words out recent first round draft history is less than steller...just like so many other teams.

It seems to me that many players slide into the first round based on workouts in shorts rather than their track record after years starting in college.

Seems ridiculous to me....

[BroncoBuff]

Potential Salary cap concerns. Plus Lepsis would be better @ Guard down the road if they Got D'Brickashaw or another High End LT.

I don't think they should move Lil' Mattie EVER! Here's why: did you notice that for about 4 straight years there they were "set to move Lepsis from RT to LT" in camp - but every year he wasn't comfortable with it?

I think "Lil' Mattie" is a classic 'fear of change' kinda guy!

[Dean]

I don't think they should move Lil' Mattie EVER! Here's why: did you notice that for about 4 straight years there they were "set to move Lepsis from RT to LT" in camp - but every year he wasn't comfortable with it?

I think "Lil' Mattie" is a classic 'fear of change' kinda guy!

Lepsis restructured his contract and in doing so got it changed so that this would be have the option of being a free agent next year. To resign him for nest year will be very expensive. Many people think that it might be more feasable to draft a LT rather than to pay what he will probably get from another team.

[Mr. Trout]

Its not saving a few bucks by trading down..it is saving a s!@# ton of bucks...these contracts are only gonna go up...If teams pick in the top 5 and they bust they are in a world of trouble.

[Atlas]

Lepsis restructured his contract and in doing so got it changed so that this would be have the option of being a free agent next year. To resign him for nest year will be very expensive. Many people think that it might be more feasable to draft a LT rather than to pay what he will probably get from another team.

You could be right but NFL teams don't generally drool over 290 left tackles. He'll get some offers but I think a lot of teams will look at him as a product of the system.

[Jason in LA]

If the Broncos end up with a top five pick I say trade it away. Too many of these guys are total busts. Those guys kill the cap. It's a crap shoot just like drafting players in the middle of the first round. But those guys in the middle of the first round are so much cheaper.

Somebody said that teams need special players, or something like that, so if the Broncos have a chance they shouldn't trade it away. Special players come out of the middle to late first round just like they do in the top 10. I don't know what the numbers are, but I'd bet that there are as many special players in the middle of the round as there are in the beginning of the round.

Some teams always have a top 5-10 pick and can't do anything with them. The Cards always have a great pick. How many great picks have the Raiders had recently? What's that gotten them? The Pats and Eagles have been picking at the end of every round for the past 4 years. But they've stayed ontop.

I hope the Skins pass the Broncos the top pick in the draft. So Shanny can hold some team hostage for that pick.

[Atlas]

If the Broncos end up with a top five pick I say trade it away. Too many of these guys are total busts. Those guys kill the cap. It's a crap shoot just like drafting players in the middle of the first round. But those guys in the middle of the first round are so much cheaper.

Somebody said that teams need special players, or something like that, so if the Broncos have a chance they shouldn't trade it away. Special players come out of the middle to late first round just like they do in the top 10. I don't know what the numbers are, but I'd bet that there are as many special players in the middle of the round as there are in the beginning of the round.
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Exactly. Denver chose D.J. Williams in the middle of the first. How many other players would you want over him?? Maybe Clayton and he was selected only one spot a head of Williams

Pryce and Wilson were both selected with the last few Picks in their respective drafts and yet there aren't many better.

[-Slap-]

I think anyone who has a hard and fast rule about this is silly. Many top five picks turn out to be franchise players that carry their teams for a decade. Would anybody object to using a top five pick on another Duke, Manning or McNabb? Would it suck if we spent a top five pick on the next LT?

I would favor trading down, in most cases, but I don't want to run away from a Hall of Famer or seven time All Pro in the process. This is going to be a very strong draft. Who knows what kind of talent will rise to the top?

[Atlas]

I think anyone who has a hard and fast rule about this is silly. Many top five picks turn out to be franchise players that carry their teams for a decade. Would anybody object to using a top five pick on another Duke, Manning or McNabb? Would it suck if we spent a top five pick on the next LT?

I would favor trading down, in most cases, but I don't to run away from a Hall of Famer or seven time All Pro in the process. This is going to be a very strong draft. Who knows what kind of talent will rise to the top?

I agree but who is a sure fire pick?? Afterall Mcnabb was loudly booed by the Philly fans when the Eagles selected him. I also thought he would be an average at best QB. Andre Wadsworth and Brian Bosworth and Gerrad Warren were all "can't miss" prospects.

Denver has never really had this dilemma afterall The last time Denver had a top 10 pick was In 1982 they finished 2-7 and selected Chris Hinton in the '83 draft whom they sent to the Colts in a trade for some overhyped QB... What was his name again???

[Hercules Rockefeller]

The Pats and Eagles have been picking at the end of every round for the past 4 years. But they've stayed ontop.

Those franchises also have elite players that can be built around, something that Denver doesn't have. Oh and Eagles benefitted from a couple high picks in the late 90's and the Pats had theirs in the early 90's and a couple years in the late 90's.

[-Slap-]

I agree but who is a sure fire pick?? Afterall Mcnabb was loudly booed by the Philly fans when the Eagles selected him. I also thought he would be an average at best QB. Andre Wadsworth and Brian Bosworth and Gerrad Warren were all "can't miss" prospects.
I'll be diplomatic and suggest that all Philly fans are not represented by the brainless louts who came out to beg management to bring Ricky Williams to their blue collar town. I was propping McNabb hard since Syracuse and laughed at all the Couch talk. Witnesses.

Bosworth, Wadsworth and Warren all had doubters, too. At a certain point you have to trust that you're paying your scouting department for a reason.

San Diego ran away from Michael Vick because management still had swollen sphincters from the Ryan Leaf Experience. They're just lucky that John Butler spent his last days on earth devising a golden parachute for them. Had Beach Bum Beathard still been in charge, they would probably still be the worst franchise in football.

[Bronco LB 59]

San Diego ran away from Michael Vick because management still had swollen sphincters from the Ryan Leaf Experience. They're just lucky that John Butler spent his last days on earth devising a golden parachute for them. Had Beach Bum Beathard still been in charge, they would probably still be the worst franchise in football.

The Chargers had 3 first round picks in 1983 and decided against trading up to #1 for a shot to nab Elway. In 1998, the Chargers' rationale for the Ryan Leaf deal was "this is our chance to get our John Elway". Beathard referred to the 1983 draft to justify the price he paid at the time to nab Leaf.

Beathard's last years with the Chargers will probably cost him a shot at the Hall of Fame. He built the 70s Dolphins, the 80s Redskins and was an influential part of getting the Chargers to XXIX. After Bobby Ross and him parted ways, he went completely crazy. His ego took control of all his personnel decisions. Actually, Beathard lives about 7 houses down from me on the other side of the street. He's a total beach bum. One time, I went to the ocean here to cool off and what do you know, Beathard is body surfing right next to me. Last I heard, he's now a consultant with the Atlanta Falcons.

[NFLBRONCO]

Wouldn't it be nice to choose from a great talent pool and pick within 3 hours once then waiting 6 hours on draft day sounds more fun to me.

[-Slap-]

The Chargers had 3 first round picks in 1983 and decided against trading up to #1 for a shot to nab Elway. In 1998, the Chargers' rationale for the Ryan Leaf deal was "this is our chance to get our John Elway". Beathard referred to the 1983 draft to justify the price he paid at the time to nab Leaf.

Beathard's last years with the Chargers will probably cost him a shot at the Hall of Fame. He built the 70s Dolphins, the 80s Redskins and was an influential part of getting the Chargers to XXIX. After Bobby Ross and him parted ways, he went completely crazy. His ego took control of all his personnel decisions. Actually, Beathard lives about 7 houses down from me on the other side of the street. He's a total beach bum. One time, I went to the ocean here to cool off and what do you know, Beathard is body surfing right next to me. Last I heard, he's now a consultant with the Atlanta Falcons.
Bobby didn't lose it overnight. He just got lazy. Spotting Beathard at the beach was an all too common occurence for the Chargers. The guy went into semi-retirement and didn't tell anybody. Trading future number ones to draft guys like Eric Moten and Michael Ricks in the second round. Yeesh!