Bronco LB 59
08-14-2005, 02:07 PM
After reading this, my opinion of Dr. Z has diminished to a all-time low. He does give some respect to Rod and Nails, maybe to get Bronco fans off his back. Some of the players he mentions like Clinton Portis, Chad Pennington, Antonio Gates, Charles Tillman need more good seasons under their belt before we can even start talking about Canton.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/dr_z/08/04/hall.of.fame/index.html
Called to Canton?
Hall of Fame sure things, possibles and long shots
Posted: Friday August 5, 2005 12:20PM;
Updated: Friday August 5, 2005 11:46PM
Last year, as the Hall of Fame weekend approached, I produced a roster of active NFL players who might be considered for induction some day, what their chances were and where my sentiments lay. I've been asked to update it, indicating any changes that have taken place in my thinking since last season.
These are the changes, for better or worse. Emmitt Smith actually has retired, which makes him a first-ballot enshrinee, class of 2010. Unless, of course, he de-mothballizes himself, as Deion did, and gives it another go. Tim Brown has retired. His chances will depend on whom he's up against. If his numbers speak, he'll make it, but I get a feeling that after five years, the steady inundation of overwhelming reception stats will have a numbing effect, just as multi-million dollar contract figures do now.
Less noticeable is the retirement of Darren Woodson, the sturdy warrior who played strong safety for the Cowboys for so many years. I'd love to see him join the Class of 2010, but it'll be tough. A new star has risen: San Diego TE Antonio Gates. Right now, in his infancy, he'll be termed a long shot.
This year I'm listing the prospects in three categories: Sure Thing, Possible and Long Shot. I'd call Gates a Possible. And Daunte Culpepper has thrown his hat into the ring after a magnificent 2004 season. Another Possible.
I think the whole area of kicking eventually will get a long look. You have Gary Anderson and Morten Andersen, who rank one-two in career field goals. You have Adam Vinatieri, one of the great money kickers in history. Right now only one kicker -- Jan Stenerud -- is in the Hall, and if you look at his numbers, compared to those of the moderns, they seem kind of quaint.
Last year I had Steve McNair as a possible enshrinee someday. Now it looks iffy. His body seems to be breaking down. Michael Vick and Jeremy Shockey were also possibles last year. Now I have serious doubts if Vick, thrilling as he is, ever will be an accurate passer, or if Shockey eventually will get his game together enough to perform at a consistently high level. They don't make our list.
In re-reading the piece from 2004, I see that my mistake was that I created way too big a roster. I knew some of those guys never would have a prayer, but I just threw them in anyway, feeling that someone, some day, might bring up their names. Now I'm trimming the list way back, and fitting the players into the three categories I mentioned earlier.
Sure Things
Junior Seau -- I've always been annoyed by his tendency to freelance a bit too much, but looking at the overall body of work, you have to say he's had a HOF career.
Jerry Rice -- Next candidate.
Marvin Harrison -- Huge numbers will bring him in.
Tom Brady -- Barring injury, of course.
Brett Favre -- He keeps tarnishing the image with goofy interceptions, but not many HOF selectors would have the guts to leave him out.
Peyton Manning -- Yeah, he's come of age. All he'll need will be to pile a few more 2004-style seasons on top of his lifetime totals.
Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis -- Nos. 4 and 5, respectively, on the career rushing list.
Marshall Faulk -- No. 12, but fourth in total yards from scrimmage (rushing and pass catching).
Ray Lewis -- Starting to slip a bit, but that's after nine years of high production.
Hines Ward -- Terrific gamer, but he might fall behind some others in the numbers race. Call him a Sure Thing in Z's mind, but maybe not in everyone else's.
LaDainian Tomlinson -- About five more years of the kind of yardage figures he's already put up will swing it.
Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick -- The latter is the surer Bill.
Michael Strahan -- OK, maybe not a sure thing, but he can lay a claim as the dominant D-lineman of this period.
Brian Dawkins -- Definitely the best free safety for half a dozen years.
Aeneas Williams and Derrick Brooks -- Long and meritorious service at corner and outside linebacker, respectively.
Larry Allen -- Eleven years of selectors being exposed to his booming blocks via the isolated camera won't hurt his chances.
Possibles
Culpepper and Randy Moss -- For Culpepper, see above. I think his chances are better than those of Moss because people, and that includes the selectors, don't like Randy. A glitch or two, such as the injuries he suffered last season, will hurt Moss worse than it would other guys because people will be looking for excuses not to vote for him.
Ed Reed -- The dominant strong safety right now, but his career has a long way to go.
Walter Jones, Alan Faneca, Jonathan Ogden, Willie Roaf, Will Shields -- Multiple all-star choices along the offensive line. Jones is the smoothest, as a pass blocker. Which one (or ones) get anointed will depend on the mood of the selectors, plus who these candidates are up against.
Long Shots
Troy Vincent -- He's had a comfortable, productive career on the corner. If he develops as a really talented player in his new spot, free safety, he'll have a shot because the selectors like multiple-position guys.
Eric Moulds, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith -- I'd rank them J. Smith, Moulds, R. Smith, but future HOF wideouts will be a grab bag because the numbers are so high.
Chad Pennington -- Very talented, but I'm afraid they'll rush him back too quickly, with that bad shoulder, just as they did at the end of last season.
Kevin Mawae, Tom Nalen, Olin Kreutz -- Long-shot centers (no, I didn't say long-snap).
Charles Tillman -- The young Bears CB was my ultimate sleeper last year. Then he got hurt. Call it the SI.com jinx.
Dick Vermeil -- A long, distinguished career. He'll be battling Parcells for the coach's spot.
John Lynch -- He has a shot because he's been so popular with the writers, i.e., selectors. Who said that being a nice guy didn't hurt?
Keith Bulluck -- Starting to taste stardom now. It tastes good. Bring more, please.
Warren Sapp -- I won't vote for him. I know that other people will. I thought after Sapp's first few years that he'd be one of the greatest who ever lived. Unfortunately he didn't maintain the pace, but he's quotable and popular.
Donovan McNabb -- Ooh, this is a tough one. Had a better chance before last year. Super Bowl hurt him. The disappearance of the two-minute offense wasn't really his fault, but I think it'll always haunt him.
Clinton Portis -- Last year I liked his chances. Although 1,315 yards hardly indicate a bad season, the vibes coming out of Washington weren't all positive, and I think he has less of a chance now.
Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt -- Gosh, I don't know. I threw their names in there, and now I'm drifting back to what I did last year, and while I'm at it, I might as well throw in ...
Ahman Green -- Who has been productive for quite a few seasons.
Gates -- See above.
OK, right now there are about 200 people out there with fingers poised over the e-mail keys, and outcries that start with, "How could you have left off ... ?"
Send 'em in, folks. Send in all the names. I know I've neglected people. It's been a rough day. Just drove back from the Bills camp in Rochester. Three hundred miles. Arrived home to find that Little Jake, who is no longer a kitten, peed all over the house. And that was with a supervisor present.
Some supervisor.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2005/writers/dr_z/08/04/hall.of.fame/index.html
Called to Canton?
Hall of Fame sure things, possibles and long shots
Posted: Friday August 5, 2005 12:20PM;
Updated: Friday August 5, 2005 11:46PM
Last year, as the Hall of Fame weekend approached, I produced a roster of active NFL players who might be considered for induction some day, what their chances were and where my sentiments lay. I've been asked to update it, indicating any changes that have taken place in my thinking since last season.
These are the changes, for better or worse. Emmitt Smith actually has retired, which makes him a first-ballot enshrinee, class of 2010. Unless, of course, he de-mothballizes himself, as Deion did, and gives it another go. Tim Brown has retired. His chances will depend on whom he's up against. If his numbers speak, he'll make it, but I get a feeling that after five years, the steady inundation of overwhelming reception stats will have a numbing effect, just as multi-million dollar contract figures do now.
Less noticeable is the retirement of Darren Woodson, the sturdy warrior who played strong safety for the Cowboys for so many years. I'd love to see him join the Class of 2010, but it'll be tough. A new star has risen: San Diego TE Antonio Gates. Right now, in his infancy, he'll be termed a long shot.
This year I'm listing the prospects in three categories: Sure Thing, Possible and Long Shot. I'd call Gates a Possible. And Daunte Culpepper has thrown his hat into the ring after a magnificent 2004 season. Another Possible.
I think the whole area of kicking eventually will get a long look. You have Gary Anderson and Morten Andersen, who rank one-two in career field goals. You have Adam Vinatieri, one of the great money kickers in history. Right now only one kicker -- Jan Stenerud -- is in the Hall, and if you look at his numbers, compared to those of the moderns, they seem kind of quaint.
Last year I had Steve McNair as a possible enshrinee someday. Now it looks iffy. His body seems to be breaking down. Michael Vick and Jeremy Shockey were also possibles last year. Now I have serious doubts if Vick, thrilling as he is, ever will be an accurate passer, or if Shockey eventually will get his game together enough to perform at a consistently high level. They don't make our list.
In re-reading the piece from 2004, I see that my mistake was that I created way too big a roster. I knew some of those guys never would have a prayer, but I just threw them in anyway, feeling that someone, some day, might bring up their names. Now I'm trimming the list way back, and fitting the players into the three categories I mentioned earlier.
Sure Things
Junior Seau -- I've always been annoyed by his tendency to freelance a bit too much, but looking at the overall body of work, you have to say he's had a HOF career.
Jerry Rice -- Next candidate.
Marvin Harrison -- Huge numbers will bring him in.
Tom Brady -- Barring injury, of course.
Brett Favre -- He keeps tarnishing the image with goofy interceptions, but not many HOF selectors would have the guts to leave him out.
Peyton Manning -- Yeah, he's come of age. All he'll need will be to pile a few more 2004-style seasons on top of his lifetime totals.
Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis -- Nos. 4 and 5, respectively, on the career rushing list.
Marshall Faulk -- No. 12, but fourth in total yards from scrimmage (rushing and pass catching).
Ray Lewis -- Starting to slip a bit, but that's after nine years of high production.
Hines Ward -- Terrific gamer, but he might fall behind some others in the numbers race. Call him a Sure Thing in Z's mind, but maybe not in everyone else's.
LaDainian Tomlinson -- About five more years of the kind of yardage figures he's already put up will swing it.
Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick -- The latter is the surer Bill.
Michael Strahan -- OK, maybe not a sure thing, but he can lay a claim as the dominant D-lineman of this period.
Brian Dawkins -- Definitely the best free safety for half a dozen years.
Aeneas Williams and Derrick Brooks -- Long and meritorious service at corner and outside linebacker, respectively.
Larry Allen -- Eleven years of selectors being exposed to his booming blocks via the isolated camera won't hurt his chances.
Possibles
Culpepper and Randy Moss -- For Culpepper, see above. I think his chances are better than those of Moss because people, and that includes the selectors, don't like Randy. A glitch or two, such as the injuries he suffered last season, will hurt Moss worse than it would other guys because people will be looking for excuses not to vote for him.
Ed Reed -- The dominant strong safety right now, but his career has a long way to go.
Walter Jones, Alan Faneca, Jonathan Ogden, Willie Roaf, Will Shields -- Multiple all-star choices along the offensive line. Jones is the smoothest, as a pass blocker. Which one (or ones) get anointed will depend on the mood of the selectors, plus who these candidates are up against.
Long Shots
Troy Vincent -- He's had a comfortable, productive career on the corner. If he develops as a really talented player in his new spot, free safety, he'll have a shot because the selectors like multiple-position guys.
Eric Moulds, Jimmy Smith, Rod Smith -- I'd rank them J. Smith, Moulds, R. Smith, but future HOF wideouts will be a grab bag because the numbers are so high.
Chad Pennington -- Very talented, but I'm afraid they'll rush him back too quickly, with that bad shoulder, just as they did at the end of last season.
Kevin Mawae, Tom Nalen, Olin Kreutz -- Long-shot centers (no, I didn't say long-snap).
Charles Tillman -- The young Bears CB was my ultimate sleeper last year. Then he got hurt. Call it the SI.com jinx.
Dick Vermeil -- A long, distinguished career. He'll be battling Parcells for the coach's spot.
John Lynch -- He has a shot because he's been so popular with the writers, i.e., selectors. Who said that being a nice guy didn't hurt?
Keith Bulluck -- Starting to taste stardom now. It tastes good. Bring more, please.
Warren Sapp -- I won't vote for him. I know that other people will. I thought after Sapp's first few years that he'd be one of the greatest who ever lived. Unfortunately he didn't maintain the pace, but he's quotable and popular.
Donovan McNabb -- Ooh, this is a tough one. Had a better chance before last year. Super Bowl hurt him. The disappearance of the two-minute offense wasn't really his fault, but I think it'll always haunt him.
Clinton Portis -- Last year I liked his chances. Although 1,315 yards hardly indicate a bad season, the vibes coming out of Washington weren't all positive, and I think he has less of a chance now.
Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt -- Gosh, I don't know. I threw their names in there, and now I'm drifting back to what I did last year, and while I'm at it, I might as well throw in ...
Ahman Green -- Who has been productive for quite a few seasons.
Gates -- See above.
OK, right now there are about 200 people out there with fingers poised over the e-mail keys, and outcries that start with, "How could you have left off ... ?"
Send 'em in, folks. Send in all the names. I know I've neglected people. It's been a rough day. Just drove back from the Bills camp in Rochester. Three hundred miles. Arrived home to find that Little Jake, who is no longer a kitten, peed all over the house. And that was with a supervisor present.
Some supervisor.