Ian Gold, a brief statistical analysis.

[Drek]

Ok, so I've been thinking. This whole off-season has in large part been very well played by our front office. We managed to bring in an assortment of promising DL guys in what looked to be an overpriced and undertalented DL FA crop. We added a lot of speedy depth to our DBs pretty cheap as well. All in all Sundquist and Shanny have done a great job (in my opinion) of assembling a low risk/high reward team for '05, while putting us in excellent shape cap and draft wise for '06 and beyond.

So considering all that, I can't help but look at one single off-season move and wonder why. What was Sundquist and Shanny smoking the day they signed Gold to the deal he got this off-season? I know he likely will once again get cut or have to restructure before the big money is payed out, but it still had me wondering about what they see in Gold to make them pay as much money as they did.

My take? Ian Gold is our secret weapon against the Colts and all the teams now trying to be just like them (i.e. Oakland, KC, a few others). He's the Trot Nixon of football, i.e. a great player handicapped by one major weakness. While Nixon can't hit lefties, Gold can't play the run. Nixon mashes on righties though, just like how Ian does his best work against passing teams.

For example, in '06 Ian Gold played five teams rated 11th or higher in total passing yards in the NFL, Kansas City (3rd in the league), St. Louis (4th) Denver (7th), New Orleans (10th), and Carolina (11th). It was a total of 7 games. They also played two games against the Falcons, a team that while not pass heavy is QB focused, for another two games.

In those 9 games Gold had 46 tackles and a pick, versus only 27 in the remaining 7 games, no picks (going by total tackles from ESPN). Thats 5.11 tackles a game versus 3.85, and he wasn't even playing as many downs as you'd expect a starter to in Tampa.

To really figure Gold out though lets look at his '02 season here with us. In 9 games against top 12 passing teams Gold had 61 total tackles, versus 38 in the other 7 games. Thats 6.78 versus 5.43 tackles a game, again over a whole tackle per game difference. Thats with Gold having one horrible game against Buffalo that season (only 3 tackles in the game).

The '05 numbers over a whole 16 game season would give you these two seasons.
3.86 tackle average: 61.6 tot
5.11 tackle average: 81.76 tot

The '02 difference over a 16 game season.
5.43 tackle average: 86.88 tot
6.78 tackle average: 108.48 tot

In both cases about a 20 tackle difference over a whole season, so the over a tackle difference per game would be pretty significant through 16 games.

[Drek]

So to summarize, is Gold worth the money we gave him? I don't think so, but its pretty hard to argue with Gold being a legitimate weapon against strong passing games. Just so happens two of our division rivals fit that description, along with the team that's spoiled the playoffs for us the past two years.

My only real fear is that the F.O. will play Gold significant time on running plays, when in reality we should shift DJ back to weakside and put Pierce, Chuck, or Sykes in at strong side in those cases. Our LB corps last year proved they could stop the run, I don't want Ian Gold messing that up.

FYI, in '05 our 10 non-AFC West games are against:
Miami
Jacksonville
Washington
New England
NYG
Philly
NYJ
Dallas
B'more
Buff

The real challenging teams (NE, PHI, JAX, BAL, NYJ) are 3/5th passing. Not to mention four of our six divisional games are against passing teams. That means before the season even starts we can expect at least seven games in which we'll face strong passing offenses. Also, should Buffalo or NYG be challenging they'll need to do so through the air, since neither has a ground game I'm real worried about.

EDIT: Sorry for deleting the previous thread, the text didn't post for some reason.

[Atlas]

Gold's strong suit is pass coverage and rushing the QB. IMO he was a good signing he definatley gives the Broncos something Spragen couldn't. AN $8million bonus on 5 year contract isn't really that amazing.

[Hulamau]

Gold played strong side for Tampa which he isnt as well suited for as weak side. A totally different situation than with us. Therefore, his numbers at Tampa can't compute to playing teamed up with Big Al and DJ where his strength in pass defense and run pursuit are much better utilized.

[Drek]

Gold played strong side for Tampa which he isnt as well suited for as weak side. A totally different situation than with us. Therefore, his numbers at Tampa can't compute to playing teamed up with Big Al and DJ where his strength in pass defense and run pursuit are much better utilized. I think you missed the point. Irregardless of who he's played with (Al Wilson and Mobley in '02, or in Tampa last year) he's shown a significant swing in production versus strong passing offenses.

I agree, I think he'll play significantly better on the weak side with Al and DJ next to him and Trev in front of him, as opposed to the now dismantled Bucs. However, its still worth seeing that he's a coverage/pass rush guy, not a run stopper.

I think he still has a role in some run coverage, namely against speed backs. When we play NYG for example, I think he should be in all game because Pierce and Sykes will get outran by Barber while Gold will be able to run with him and Barber is too small to use Gold's lack of size against him.

[Florida_Bronco]

Wow that's pretty good analyasis (sp?) there. I too like Gold and am glad we got him back.

[SoCalBronco]

ugh!~

[Drek]

Totally saw that post coming. :)

Next thing I'm gonna do (when ESPN gets their player pages 100% back on line) is a solo v. assisted tackle analysis. Spragan had 66 tackles last year, only 44 solos. I didn't even add DJ's up for a ratio because it was pretty clear he crushed Spragan in ending tackles on his own (12 solos in one game). I wonder how many solos Gold put up while playing with Wilson and Mobley, which I'd call a comprable LB corps to what Wilson and DJ were last year (Mobley was more experienced than DJ, plus Wilson had a better '02 than '04 if I recall). I'll probably cross that with a few other linebackers from other teams to gauge if Gold really does have a problem tackling on his own.

FYI, the major impetus for this is that I'm a huge baseball fan and really like the concepts behind sabremetrics. I know I'm not enough of a statistician to do for football what Bill James did for baseball, but its a sport that clearly lends itself to such analysis, as seen by how trusted QB rating has become. I just don't see why this was left as a tool for grading a single position.

edit: just checked Williams' solo/total ratio, he's at .76, 81 solo v. 25 assisted. Talk about finishing your own work! Al was real close, 78 v. 27, for a solo v. total ratio of .74, but its crazy to think that the rookie was finishing off his own tackles better than Wilson!

[FADERPROOF]

ugh!~

Same here, but only because he went to Michigan.

[elsid13]

Did anyone have access to the Daily Camera article on Gold? I saw that you need to register now to access their stuff.

[Drek]

Bit of a quick note on solo v. total tackle ratios, I have yet to verify that the best players carry them over from year to year, I'm working on that now. Also, if this does appear as a real skill stat (i.e. carries over from year to year) I would be willing to make the assertion that players with high tackle numbers but poor ratios are overrated, while players with the reverse would be underrated.

Bit of a glance from last year's stats, Kieth Bullocks lead the league in tackles, but had a .68 ratio of solo v. assited. Zach Thomas, #4 on the list, had a rediculous .81 ratio (118 solos v. only 27 assited).

Edit: for anyone interested, take a quick look at the change in Al Wilson's tackle numbers for his career. In '03 he made a ton of tackles (about 130+) and that was the only season until last year that he had over 20 assisted. How big a role did DJ's speed play in that?

I'm also not saying assisted tackles are a negative stat entirely, you want guys with lots of solos, but guys with a lot of assisteds are guys who help their weaker teammates out with making a tackle as well. That is, if they have good overall numbers. Spragan's for example would not make me conclude that he's helping his teammates finish guys off, rather that he got a lot of help from DJ and Al (since there was an overall increase in Al Wilson's assisteds with DJ as well).

Makes you wonder just how valuable an experienced DJ Williams could be.

[SoCalBronco]

Same here, but only because he went to Michigan.

And also because we will now likely pass over A.J. Hawk with our first selection, when we otherwise would have strongly considered a guy of that caliber.

[SoCalBronco]

Did anyone have access to the Daily Camera article on Gold? I saw that you need to register now to access their stuff.

Here you go, although i now have to wash my hands after posting it. It doesnt surprise me at all that he actively rooted against us last year. Scumbag.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Broncos happy to strike Gold again
After year in Tampa, popular LB returns to Denver

By Ryan Thorburn, Camera Sports Writer
August 1, 2005

ENGLEWOOD — Ian Gold wasn't wearing a Peyton Manning jersey or holding up a giant foam finger with a Colts logo on it.

But after feeling slighted by the Broncos last year, the temporary Tampa Bay linebacker wasn't shedding tears while watching Denver's 49-24 postseason loss at Indianapolis from a distance.


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Gold wouldn't wish that kind of public embarrassment on Al Wilson and other friends on his former team.

Still, it feels good to know that you are missed.

"When we played Denver it was good to see the guys, but I definitely wanted to beat them," Gold said when asked where his heart was during the 2004 season. "Even the playoffs, I wanted to see them lose. That's just the nature of the game."

[SoCalBronco]

In the NFL, money is as much a part of the game as winning or losing. And after the 2003 campaign, negotiations between Gold and the Broncos on a new contract were unsuccessful.

The Broncos felt that Gold, who had suffered a serious knee injury on special teams during the season, was asking for too much money, and he eventually had to settle for a back-loaded contract with the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, Mike Shanahan and his staff filled the void nicely by drafting D.J. Williams in the first round.

"What did I learn about myself? I think the most important thing that I've learned is that you can't lose faith," Gold said. "You've got to keep the faith. And as long as you work hard and keep that faith, everything's going to work out for you."

During the 2004 season, Gold admittedly felt like a fish out of water, playing on the strong side of the defense in Tampa, where perennial Pro Bowl selection Derrick Brooks roams the weak side. Back in Denver, Williams was flourishing, and finished his rookie season with a team-high 114 tackles.

"My experience in Tampa was, I'd say life-changing," Gold said. "I got a chance to play with a different group of guys, I got a chance to go down there and learn from one of the best at my position in Brooks. I feel like I learned a lot from him and was kind of a sponge."

Jon Gruden cut a number of veteran players, including Gold, in March to manage his salary cap. Two days later, the Broncos kissed and made up with the linebacker they had lost, presenting him with a five-year, $22.5 million contract that included an $8.5 million signing bonus.

Now the Broncos have Williams on the strong side, and Gold back where they think he belongs, on the other side of Al Wilson.

"It's a pretty good situation," defensive coordinator Larry Coyer said. "It's really nice to have Ian Gold back. ... Ian is bullet fast, he's tenacious, he gets after your butt, and he's going to compete."

It's not like Gold didn't compete in Tampa. Despite playing a new position on a surgically repaired knee, he finished with 120 total tackles — including 70 unassisted — and had an interception.

The pewter and red pants just never looked right on Gold.

"I knew that my heart was here, and I knew how Shanahan felt, and knew how the guys upstairs felt," Gold said. "I just knew that it was going to be a matter of me proving to everybody in this one year that I'm away that I can still perform at a high level."

Perhaps the reason Gold never completely got over the Broncos was the fact that Keith Burns joined him on the one-year hiatus. The vocal veteran proved to be a good listener in Tampa.

"I'm an outgoing person, so it's easy for me to adjust to a lot of circumstances," said Burns, who is also back on the Broncos' roster, signing three weeks after Gold. "Ian really didn't know that many people down there, but he always had me to lean on if he needed anything, or to talk about stuff like the game itself getting frustrating for him. ...

"I think last year was different for him, it was humbling. I think he has matured and it helped him grow up a lot to see that sometimes you may think the grass is greener on the other side and actually it's not."

With Gold back in the fold, the Broncos have arguably the top starting linebacking trio in the league. They're certainly the strength of Coyer's defense.

"If we can stay healthy, we can definitely be the best in the business," Wilson said. "It doesn't feel like Ian left. It feels as if he took a nice little break, but it feels good to have him back."

[FADERPROOF]

And also because we will now likely pass over A.J. Hawk with our first selection, when we otherwise would have strongly considered a guy of that caliber.

Yep, both he or Bobby Carpenter from Ohio State would be nice to grab had we not gotten Ian Gold.

[Jason in LA]

Drek, good work on the stats. One thing I'd like to see, if you have the time, is what is the difference in numbers with Al Wilson and DJ. Comparing their numbers to Gold's numbers will tell us something.

[SoCalBronco]

Drek, good work on the stats. One thing I'd like to see, if you have the time, is what is the difference in numbers with Al Wilson and DJ. Comparing their numbers to Gold's numbers will tell us something.

I dont think it will tell us much on what is the ranking of all three of them. Gold will have his numbers artificially bumped up due to his position. Maybe if we can saw off 25-30 tackles or so, than we can make a more accurate look at all three.

[DivineLegion]

Here you go, although i now have to wash my hands after posting it. It doesnt surprise me at all that he actively rooted against us last year. Scumbag.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

Broncos happy to strike Gold again
After year in Tampa, popular LB returns to Denver

By Ryan Thorburn, Camera Sports Writer
August 1, 2005

ENGLEWOOD — Ian Gold wasn't wearing a Peyton Manning jersey or holding up a giant foam finger with a Colts logo on it.

But after feeling slighted by the Broncos last year, the temporary Tampa Bay linebacker wasn't shedding tears while watching Denver's 49-24 postseason loss at Indianapolis from a distance.


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Gold wouldn't wish that kind of public embarrassment on Al Wilson and other friends on his former team.

Still, it feels good to know that you are missed.

"When we played Denver it was good to see the guys, but I definitely wanted to beat them," Gold said when asked where his heart was during the 2004 season. "Even the playoffs, I wanted to see them lose. That's just the nature of the game."

Maybe he will realy go out there and break a leg for us this season...That would fix all of our problems... :wiggle:

[Dukes]

"Even the playoffs, I wanted to see them lose. That's just the nature of the game."

Someone was bitter last season :vermeil:

[elsid13]

I don't blame him, the team that he wanted to play for rejected him. It like the woman that you loved since high school and told you she loved you, then goes live with another guy. It only human to be bitter.

[SoCalBronco]

I don't blame him, the team that he wanted to play for rejected him. It like the woman that you loved since high school and told you she loved you, then goes live with another guy. It only human to be bitter.

I dont think he wanted to play for us. I dont believe its a situation where we didnt want him. We gave him an even better offer than he signed for this year. We wanted to see what offers he got so that we could have the chance to match it and he refused to allow us to do that. We tried to call him up right when we were on the clock with the 17th pick and negotiate with him some more to keep him here. I dont think Ian can reasonably believe that we didnt want him. Merely because we werent willing to give him a signing bonus equal to or greater than the 12 million bonus that we gave Al Wilson doesnt mean we didnt want him. I wish the team didnt want him but unfortuneatly they did. Its a product of his mind alone that created the erroneous belief that we didnt want him.

[Drek]

It's not like Gold didn't compete in Tampa. Despite playing a new position on a surgically repaired knee, he finished with 120 total tackles — including 70 unassisted — and had an interception. I've always found ESPN's tackle numbers to be somewhat inflated and they had him for about 70 total, not 70 unassisted last season. This Daily Camera or whatever's numbers appear completely wrong to me.

Drek, good work on the stats. One thing I'd like to see, if you have the time, is what is the difference in numbers with Al Wilson and DJ. Comparing their numbers to Gold's numbers will tell us something. Well, I've looked at all three numbers in terms of solos v. totals (neither Al nor DJ appear to have a real clear variance v. passing or running teams, they both just make plays), and Gold looks like a guy who finishes off his tackles without much help. '04 was a worse year by solo v. total ratios than what Gold did in '02. In '02 Gold had 99 total tackles, 87 solo, and 12 assisted, for better than an .87 ratio. Thats freakishly good really, but then, Gold only has two years of quality stats to base that on. Its easier to see a game by game anomaly over two healthy seasons than something as tricky as tacking ability.

Conversely, Al Wilson has a career .8 ratio, a .78 in '02, his best overall season to date. Last year was a .74, '03 was his biggest ratio, a .84, but I'm sure we'll all agree it was a disapointing season for him overall. This leads me to believe that Al should be in line for a career season. He plays with speed 'backers well and now will be bookended by two of them.

Here's the odd thing with Al though. in his two best seasons ('02 and '04) he's had worse ratios. Is that because he finishes off more teammate tackles, or is he having his own finished off? Neither Ian nor DJ seems to require a lot of help in that department, and he's played with one of each in his two best seasons. I get the feeling that Al is ideal at setting up ballcarriers for his speed backs to then missle into, as well as probably helping the interior DTs finish off their tackles (hence our good run stopping each year we've had him at MLB despite many scrubs playing DT).

[DivineLegion]

SoCal wants AJ Hawk and hes bitter but when he takes off his homer goggles he should see that because Ian is such a prick and left last offseason we got DJ...so realy he should thank him for being a money misering prick and then damn him for costing us an excuse to draft an awsome LB...

[elsid13]

I dont think he wanted to play for us. I dont believe its a situation where we didnt want him. We gave him an even better offer than he signed for this year. We wanted to see what offers he got so that we could have the chance to match it and he refused to allow us to do that. We tried to call him up right when we were on the clock with the 17th pick and negotiate with him some more to keep him here. I dont think Ian can reasonably believe that we didnt want him. Merely because we werent willing to give him a signing bonus equal to or greater than the 12 million bonus that we gave Al Wilson doesnt mean we didnt want him. I wish the team didnt want him but unfortuneatly they did. Its a product of his mind alone that created the erroneous belief that we didnt want him.


Pulling from memories, I remember that Shanny went to visit Gold in the hospital after the injury, with "don't worry, we take care of you, even though you injuried" line. Then The POLSON brothers showed up and convinced Gold that he was going to get paid the big bucks. So when the Front Office "low balled" him, he went to Tampa, pissed off. Now that Polson are out of the picture and he back. I think he personnel favorite of Coyer so let see how it work out.

[SoCalBronco]

SoCal wants AJ Hawk and hes bitter but when he takes off his homer goggles he should see that because Ian is such a prick and left last offseason we got DJ...so realy he should thank him for being a money misering prick and then damn him for costing us an excuse to draft an awsome LB...

Yes, that is one side benefit of the whole situation. I'll give you that although at the same time it doesnt give me a great deal of confidence in the front office knowing that DJ wouldnt have been a Bronco but for 1) Gold refusing the team's very generous offers at the very last moment when we were on the clock to keep him here as their first choice as opposed to simply stopping negotiations when they got to Pick 17 and DJ was still on the clock and 2) from various pieces of anecdotal evidence, DJ being the 4th choice among the team's 4 targets at that pick and them "having to settle" for him since he was the only one left. It seems just like a coincidence that that we ended up with him. Doesnt inspire alot of confidence in the FO in terms of their ability to spot talent.

[elsid13]

Yes, that is one side benefit of the whole situation. I'll give you that although at the same time it doesnt give me a great deal of confidence in the front office knowing that DJ wouldnt have been a Bronco but for 1) Gold refusing the team's very generous offers at the very last moment when we were on the clock to keep him here as their first choice as opposed to simply stopping negotiations when they got to Pick 17 and DJ was still on the clock and 2) from various pieces of anecdotal evidence, DJ being the 4th choice among the team's 4 targets at that pick and them "having to settle" for him since he was the only one left. It seems just like a coincidence that that we ended up with him. Doesnt inspire alot of confidence in the FO in terms of their ability to spot talent.

To be fair the three ahead of DJ were Clayton, Harris and (forgot the third), all turn out to be pretty good.

[SoCalBronco]

To be fair the three ahead of DJ were Clayton, Harris and (forgot the third), all turn out to be pretty good.

2 of the 3 turned out very good, yep i agree. The other Reggie Williams, was a bust in Year 1. So in that respect, the talent evaluation was pretty good, they hit on 3 out of 4.

[bpc]

Well I've always liked Gold. I just think he works hard and he is a sparkplug for our defense, something it lacked it two lackluster performances against Indy in the playoffs. I hardly see that being a problem this year as long as we can stay healthy. I see us being #1 in run defense just based on these three guys alone, and I would even say we are better then the 2002 run defense for Ray Rhodes which absolutely swarmed people to death early in the season.

[DB-Freak]

I don't know, but don't be so willing to judge that Sykes would be outran by speed backs.

Sykes is still capable of being a starter.

[FADERPROOF]

SoCal wants AJ Hawk and hes bitter but when he takes off his homer goggles he should see that because Ian is such a prick and left last offseason we got DJ...so realy he should thank him for being a money misering prick and then damn him for costing us an excuse to draft an awsome LB...

Yes, but Good Lord could you imagine the starting LB's being DJ Williams, Al Wilson, and A.J. Hawk?

Just wow...

[-Slap-]

ugh!~

Double ugh!~ ugh!~

[DBroncos4life]

Yes, but Good Lord could you imagine the starting LB's being DJ Williams, Al Wilson, and A.J. Hawk?

Just wow...


I would rather have had Burnett, but I can't say that I know much about Hawk.

[FADERPROOF]

I would rather have had Burnett, but I can't say that I know much about Hawk.

Burnett likes to play WLB as well, so we would have that conflict of both DJ and him on the weakside.

A.J. Hawk can play both, the Bucks have a bigger guy in Bobby Carpenter that'll play Sam for us but A.J. with his speed and covering skills make him a great Will.

And he did play SLB up until part of last year when Bobby Carpenter really turned it on and couldn't be held out of the starting line-up, Hawk made as transition so smooth that you didn't even know he switched positions.

[SoCalBronco]

Burnett likes to play WLB as well, so we would have that conflict of both DJ and him on the weakside.

A.J. Hawk can play both, the Bucks have a bigger guy in Bobby Carpenter that'll play Sam for us but A.J. with his speed and covering skills make him a great Will.

And he did play SLB up until part of last year when Bobby Carpenter really turned it on and couldn't be held out of the starting line-up, Hawk made as transition so smooth that you didn't even know he switched positions.

Hawk is so good. He kinda reminds me of Matt Wilhelm in that he has good leadership and is very smart but he has way more ability than Wilhelm. That was pretty impressive how he ran a 4.49 at his size and weight when he wasnt even training for it unlike the guys who were actually preparing for the pro day because they were going out in the draft. I think Hawk will prolly go in the Top 10 though if he has another good season so I dont know if we would have had a shot at him anyway. I think the Skins will give us something like the 12th pick or whatever.

[Drek]

To be honest I would have prefered not bringing Gold back myself, I think we've already got enough talent at LB to not need to invest that kind of money at the position. However, to me it seems clear that Gold will make us a better team than if we had Sykes in at SLB and DJ at WLB. Is it better than DJ at WLB, Al at SLB, and Pierce at MLB though, thats what I worry about. But then, I think Pierce is a real good player who just needs a shot to prove it.

[FADERPROOF]

Hawk is so good. He kinda reminds me of Matt Wilhelm in that he has good leadership and is very smart but he has way more ability than Wilhelm. That was pretty impressive how he ran a 4.49 at his size and weight when he wasnt even training for it unlike the guys who were actually preparing for the pro day because they were going out in the draft. I think Hawk will prolly go in the Top 10 though if he has another good season so I dont know if we would have had a shot at him anyway. I think the Skins will give us something like the 12th pick or whatever.

I agree with that, Wilhelm was a great leader and could hit and tackle, but was a MLB and limited at coverages and such, Hawk is faster and can cover better along with being able to hit like a monster.

Even I was shocked at his 40 time, and I've seen him play the past 2 years and saw how fast he is out there. Last year he had an INT against Michigan State that wasn't even right, receiver ran a post corner route, AJ stuck with him and the QB had no one open so he tried to just throw it out of bounds. Hawk closed in on it, dove, secured the ball as he was going out and got his foot down to make the interception, linebackers are not supposed to make those kind of plays.

[SoCalBronco]

Is it better than DJ at WLB, Al at SLB, and Pierce at MLB though, thats what I worry about. .

To quote the late Mr. Scott, "that's the ticket, laddie".

And that lineup wouldnt have costed us a dime more than we were already paying. We also would be actually getting something out of our 2nd round draft pick. Khan's report on Pierce was dim on the OLB position. Like Slappy says, just because you get Roseanne Barr to lose 100 lbs. doesnt transform her into a model. This above lineup would have been perfect and we could have gotten Okaefor and/ or DeMulling.

[DBroncos4life]

I thought Burnett was a SLB. He has the height for it and he still is fast enough as well.

[FADERPROOF]

I thought Burnett was a SLB. He has the height for it and he still is fast enough as well.

Kevin Mitchell, Tennessee's SLB, made the trasition to MLB because of Kevin Simon going down, but I don't know if Omar Gaither came in at SLB or went to WLB while Burnett went to SLB.

Burnett, at least up until that injury, has been a career WLB and I wouldn't be surprised if that's his natural position in the pros.

[FADERPROOF]

JUst checked up, and yes Omar Gaither came in as the SLB while Kevin Burnett stayed as the WLB, while Kevin Mitchell went from SLB to MLB to take the place of the injured MLB, Kevin Simon.

[DBroncos4life]

I didn't think Demorio Williams was a SLB in college but the Falcons think he can do it in the NFL and they are really high on him. After reading about that it makes the DJ and Gold thing not a big deal in my mind. We now have three guys that can get 100 tackles each from the LB spot and thats not a bad thing in my mid.

[Mediator12]

Demorrio Williams was high on the draft list and would probably been selected if DJ was gone or for better value if one of the three other targets were there.

As for statistical analysis, I think it does a world of good for individual sports, including Baseball, where it really does come down to one on one battles. As for team sports, I think it is a waste of time Drek. There are an insane amount of uncontrollable variables that affect team performance and to isolate a single statistic like tackles is very dubious from a Reliability standpoint.

[DBroncos4life]

Demorrio Williams was high on the draft list and would probably been selected if DJ was gone or for better value if one of the three other targets were there.

As for statistical analysis, I think it does a world of good for individual sports, including Baseball, where it really does come down to one on one battles. As for team sports, I think it is a waste of time Drek. There are an insane amount of uncontrollable variables that affect team performance and to isolate a single statistic like tackles is very dubious from a Reliability standpoint.


Thats good to here. I thought Dj, my Williams, and Boulware would have been a good LB pick. Part of me wishes we would have drafted Will Smith or Kenechi Udeze, then Bell, Watts, and Demorrio, but I can live with how it turned out. Even more so if LeSueur can pull it together.

[SoCalBronco]

Demorrio Williams was high on the draft list and would probably been selected if DJ was gone or for better value if one of the three other targets were there.

.

You just made Slappy throw up, Med.

[DBroncos4life]

You just made Slappy throw up, Med.


why?

[Drek]

This above lineup would have been perfect and we could have gotten Okaefor and/ or DeMulling. Hold on there, I'd rather have just held onto the money before signing either of those guys to worthwhile money myself.

Personally, I would have prefered moving Putz to the NYJ's for whatever picks they'd give us, then give the money to Bubba Franks. Nate Jackson has moved to TE so he gives us a speedy deeper TE threat, Franks would have been a reliable TE who would dominate in the red zone.

As it is our red zone offense has nothing over the red zone from last year, arguably it'll be worse if Anderson can't stay healthy, because we won't have Droughns to carry the rock in short yardage situations. It'll bite us in the ass, just wait and see.

As for statistical analysis, I think it does a world of good for individual sports, including Baseball, where it really does come down to one on one battles. As for team sports, I think it is a waste of time Drek. There are an insane amount of uncontrollable variables that affect team performance and to isolate a single statistic like tackles is very dubious from a Reliability standpoint. See, I take Bill James' view of there not being any such thing as uncontrollable variables, just a failure to understand and incorporate them. But then, its true that I don't think I'm anywhere close to being as big a stat head as I'd need to be. I do think some of it can be used though, such as the clear difference that Gold plays better against passing teams. solo v. total tackle ratios though was just something new I was trying out while free today, I'm not real happy with how its turning out as a metric for gauging someone's ability to make quality tackles.

[SoCalBronco]

why?

He hated Demorrio Williams going into last year's draft.

[DivineLegion]

They need to set up a stat for missed tackles then Ian will realy show his true color...Yeller, or Yellow

[DBroncos4life]

He hated Demorrio Williams going into last year's draft.


I see. He is a fast SOB. Why did he hate him, remind him of Gold?

[DivineLegion]

I see. He is a fast SOB. Why did he hate him, remind him of Gold?

Tehehehehehe...DeMario Williams is a Balla, Dont hate :thumbs:

[SoCalBronco]

Hold on there, I'd rather have just held onto the money before signing either of those guys to worthwhile money myself.

Personally, I would have prefered moving Putz to the NYJ's for whatever picks they'd give us, then give the money to Bubba Franks. Nate Jackson has moved to TE so he gives us a speedy deeper TE threat, Franks would have been a reliable TE who would dominate in the red zone.

As it is our red zone offense has nothing over the red zone from last year, arguably it'll be worse if Anderson can't stay healthy, because we won't have Droughns to carry the rock in short yardage situations. It'll bite us in the ass, just wait and see.


Holding onto the money would have been fine with me as well, Drek. I wouldnt have moved the Putz. Jeb has good upside and unlike Franks he can stretch the field. Bubba is a very good red zone target and does well in the short game but cant stretch the field at all. Plus the compensation the Jets where offering, at least initially I believe was a 5th and a 6th. That's very inadequate. We demanded a 2nd. Obviously they werent going to go that high. They may have counteroffered a 4th but I do not remember exactly. Even a 4th would be inadequate. But I agree with you if they felt Okeafor was overpriced thats fine just keep the money as to not clog spots unnecessarily and give us more flexibility in the future.

[DBroncos4life]

Tehehehehehe...DeMario Williams is a Balla, Dont hate :thumbs:


I like him. That guy was everywhere for NU.

[SoCalBronco]

They need to set up a stat for missed tackles then Ian will realy show his true color...Yeller, or Yellow

Rep.

[watermock]

Damn. Talk about splitting hairs. What is amazing is Coyer not simply coming out and saying Williams will play Sam. Yes, we hear you D.J. Deal with it. Coyer needs to lay the law down if that's what he wanted. I have given my opinion of the Gold move many times, so no use now.

That's the way it is. Coyer can be evasive and candy coat it, but Williams will be Sam, Gold Will. Period. We could have worse problems. Our DL is deep beyond belief, and it will be this training camp and preseason to sort the wheat from the chaff.

The secondary is up for grabs IMO. That's actually good. We have 7 young players, Lynch, Fergy and Champ. It's almost like the DL. Lots of bodies.

The Offense seems set except for RB. The rest is basically tweaking. Even RB seems fairly settled. Evidently, MoC is a turd, give Dayne a chance. Bell and Mike can run the ball effectively enough. God help me, they are working on screen passes. That drove me crazy they didn't call them more, you could see it was wide open so many times it drove me nuts. That goes to Q.

[Drek]

I wouldnt have moved the Putz. Jeb has good upside and unlike Franks he can stretch the field. See, I really like Putz too, I just don't like that we basically gave him almost franchise tag TE money. Matching was a good move, I wouldn't give him up for a 5th and 6th, but if we could have gotten a 3rd (which I seem to recall them moving up to) I would have done it. Wasn't Shanny asking for either a #2 or a #3 plus another pick (like a #5)?

Just a #3 and I would have shipped him out then gone after Franks. While Franks can't stretch the field like we'd like our TEs to do he is a great red zone weapon, an excellent blocker, and would be a valuable short yardage out guy for Plummer. I think we've shown the ability to develope field stretching TEs out of oversized, slower, WRs.

Back to Gold though, I think the only way we get his contract value out of him is to platoon him out on running plays or against run heavy teams while playing him on special teams throughout the season. I don't see either of those implementations being used though, so Ian is going to get his fat payday, but will probably still put up a real good season for us. I wonder just how many tackles our LB corps can make, since we have three starters who are all 100 tackles possibles.

[watermock]

Wrong Wrong and Wrong. We simply matched a tender offer. He's nowhere near "franchise" money.

Everything I have heard from our recon on the ground is Nate Jackson is kicking ass.

If all 3 LB's make 100 tackles we will be 2-14.

[DBroncos4life]

I just really want to see what Gold can do for the passrush. I think the DLine will do a great job getting after the QB by itself but when you have a guy like Gold blitzing as well it should really do wonders for the team. Like him or not he does have a knack for getting the QB.

[-Slap-]

I just really want to see what Gold can do for the passrush. I think the DLine will do a great job getting after the QB by itself but when you have a guy like Gold blitzing as well it should really do wonders for the team. Like him or not he does have a knack for getting the QB.
This is one of my biggest complaints about Gold. He's effective as a blitzer if the offense has absolutely no idea that he's coming. If he shows blitz, or they suspect he's coming, OTs deflect him easily. Some openly mock him. There is no way we can go into a ballgame with part of the gameplan expecting pressure from Ian Gold. If we get stubborn about it, teams will exploit him, count on it.

My biggest complaint about Gold is not only do we have to absorb blockers for him, but he's still on the periphery of the action way more than he should be. I prefer linebackers who are eager to stick their noses into the action, not guys who want to run every play down from behind.

I guess its a philosophical difference, but I like linebackers who can come right up and smack you in the mouth. Not guys who want to dart past blockers like a scatback and then act bad when they get to the ballcarrier.

[SoCalBronco]

This is one of my biggest complaints about Gold. He's effective as a blitzer if the offense has absolutely no idea that he's coming. If he shows blitz, or they suspect he's coming, OTs deflect him easily. Some openly mock him. There is no way we can go into a ballgame with part of the gameplan expecting pressure from Ian Gold. If we get stubborn about it, teams will exploit him, count on it.

My biggest complaint about Gold is not only do we have to absorb blockers for him, but he's still on the periphery of the action way more than he should be. I prefer linebackers who are eager to stick their noses into the action, not guys who want to run every play down from behind.

I guess its a philosophical difference, but I like linebackers who can come right up and smack you in the mouth. Not guys who want to dart past blockers like a scatback and then act bad when they get to the ballcarrier.

Hey Slappy, im sure you enjoyed Mediator's comment on page 2 that Demorrio Williams was a key target of the staff in last year's draft if we had gone some other way in Rd 1. ;)

[-Slap-]

Hey Slappy, im sure you enjoyed Mediator's comment on page 2 that Demorrio Williams was a key target of the staff in last year's draft if we had gone some other way in Rd 1. ;)
One day they'll realize that fielding three tiny linebackers is only going to be effective if you're sporting a D line like the Bucs had a few years ago.

[watermock]

One day they'll realize that fielding three tiny linebackers is only going to be effective if you're sporting a D line like the Bucs had a few years ago.

Your so full of crap. We don't have tiny LB's. You have been sucking Pierces balls since he was drafted. Al Wilson isn't "tiny" nor is Williams. Gold is smallish, but plays to his size. You have been wrong on every turn Slappy.

Honestly, I have resisted calling slappy an idiot, but it's just plain now. Now listen you moron, if Pierce, your hero, had shown anything he would be starting right? Second, Our "Midget" MLB would be out of the league..right?

Your an idiot. Every thing you have said has been dead wrong. I can't wait for your next projections. The fact is your a dunce.

I'm not going to rub your nose in it, but ai said that Detroit would lose, and you were all over it.l Youre a joke

[baja]

That's you are or you're

Your is a pronoun used as follows;

Your going to get it now.

[DBroncos4life]

One day they'll realize that fielding three tiny linebackers is only going to be effective if you're sporting a D line like the Bucs had a few years ago.


D might not be tall but he isn't small like Gold. He packed on the pounds before the draft and he is listed at 235 right now. Thats 12 pounds more then Gold is listed at and 5 pounds less then Williams.

[-Slap-]

Your so full of crap. We don't have tiny LB's. You have been sucking Pierces balls since he was drafted. Al Wilson isn't "tiny" nor is Williams. Gold is smallish, but plays to his size. You have been wrong on every turn Slappy.

Honestly, I have resisted calling slappy an idiot, but it's just plain now. Now listen you moron, if Pierce, your hero, had shown anything he would be starting right? Second, Our "Midget" MLB would be out of the league..right?

Your an idiot. Every thing you have said has been dead wrong. I can't wait for your next projections. The fact is your a dunce.

I'm not going to rub your nose in it, but ai said that Detroit would lose, and you were all over it.l Youre a joke

Hey, the drunkard is back for another smackdown. Always funny when he finds his pecker and comes back for more.

First off, dickless cripple, THE CURRENT LINEBACKER CORPS ISN'T TINY, ONLY GOLD. Try reading when you're not completely ****faced sometime, it will alleviate the part of your confusion that isn't caused by your ignorant hillbilly upbringing.

Not sure where you came up with the Detroit nonsense, but I've hated that franchise for almost 20 years and root against them religiously. Again, splash a little water on your face, check out a couple 12 step programs and try again once you've pulled your life together.

Sorry you think I make you look bad all the time, Mock, but I'm actually just the guy pointing it out to everybody. Not my fault that so many people here are amused by your plight.

[-Slap-]

D might not be tall but he isn't small like Gold. He packed on the pounds before the draft and he is listed at 235 right now. Thats 12 pounds more then Gold is listed at and 5 pounds less then Williams.
You're certainly way smarter than Mock, so reread the thread. Here's a hint: SoCal asked me about adding tiny Demorrio Williams to our defense INSTEAD of DJ Williams. I responded to that premise and assumed it was pretty clear to all but drunken dickless losers leeching off their brothers in Bum****, Iowa.

[DBroncos4life]

You're certainly way smarter than Mock, so reread the thread. Here's a hint: SoCal asked me about adding tiny Demorrio Williams to our defense INSTEAD of DJ Williams. I responded to that premise and assumed it was pretty clear to all but drunken dickless losers leeching off their brothers in Bum****, Iowa.


By D I meant Demorrio. Not the D itself. He's playing around 235.

[-Slap-]

By D I meant Demorrio. Not the D itself. He's playing around 235.
D might not be tall but he isn't small like Gold. He packed on the pounds before the draft and he is listed at 235 right now.

Six foot nothing and a puffed up 232 pounds. Been there, endured that.

[UltimateHoboW/Shotgun]

D might not be tall but he isn't small like Gold. He packed on the pounds before the draft and he is listed at 235 right now.

Six foot nothing and a puffed up 232 pounds. Been there, endured that.


To coin a phrase "It's not the size of the dog in the fight. It the size of the fight in the dog." There have been a lot of small LB that have made it in the NFL like Sam Mills (R.I.P.) Nat Nygen, John Mobley and the like. Sure there are the Romo's and such. I'm just saying lets not look for failure. Our LB's are good and have been good for a long time.

[footstepsfrom#27]

Ian Gold IMO, is a strong safety playing linebacker. That's not all bad. I can see him being a terror off the edge playing outside Pryce. Still...I'd like a bigger guy in there. He can easily give up 100 pounds or more taking on some of these OL beasts.

[DBroncos4life]

D might not be tall but he isn't small like Gold. He packed on the pounds before the draft and he is listed at 235 right now.

Six foot nothing and a puffed up 232 pounds. Been there, endured that.


Whatever man he still is bigger then Gold ever will be.

[Drek]

Wrong Wrong and Wrong. We simply matched a tender offer. He's nowhere near "franchise" money. Yeah, and that tender offer pays him top ten TE money, while franchise tag is an average of the top 5 TEs. For a 6th round draft pick that disapears in the red zone and in general has inconsistant hands that seems rather expensive to me.

Though I'm sure you were probably fooled by the generally low contract value, but thats because TEs don't get paid as much as most other positions. Bubba Franks' tag money got him about $3.5M for '05.

Go back to prematurely judging Mo Clarett Mock, you clearly don't keep up when it comes to real football discussions.

[Mediator12]

Slap, there is more than one way to skin a Cat! My Goodness.

It would be awesome if 6'3 4.5 250 lb LB's that have any football instincts grew on trees. Problem is there is a short supply of them and DEN has two already! The Chiefs are Praying that their Minute LB that is predicated on Running around blockers in College bercomes a real NFL LB just to have ONE. Meanwhile, DEN is blessed to have three Guys that Coyer Likes in his system. Gunther MAY NOT have any if Bell keeps missing practices and Johnson plays like you say Ian does.

Yes Ian is undersized. Can we get past this if the run "D" stays the same or gets better perhaps? Otherwise, this is just becoming a daily confrontation for the fun of it :hitself:

[-Slap-]

Slap, there is more than one way to skin a Cat! My Goodness.

It would be awesome if 6'3 4.5 250 lb LB's that have any football instincts grew on trees. Problem is there is a short supply of them and DEN has two already! The Chiefs are Praying that their Minute LB that is predicated on Running around blockers in College bercomes a real NFL LB just to have ONE. Meanwhile, DEN is blessed to have three Guys that Coyer Likes in his system. Gunther MAY NOT have any if Bell keeps missing practices and Johnson plays like you say Ian does.

Yes Ian is undersized. Can we get past this if the run "D" stays the same or gets better perhaps? Otherwise, this is just becoming a daily confrontation for the fun of it :hitself:

Yeah, what was I thinking, giving my thoughts on Ian Gold in a thread titled "Ian Gold, a brief statistical analysis"?

If you check post #58 you'll see my concerns about Ian Gold are more thought out than, "Gold's too small, screw him." They also extend beyond his liability against the run. I explain that Ian's not a reliable option as a pass rusher because he's only effective as a blitzer when he really surprises the offense. He's incapable of beating an OT if the guy knows he's coming.

Then Mock stumbled in a couple posts later and the thread devolved into ****.

On another thread, I said I was encouraged to hear the writer from ProFootballGuys praising Ian. They said he was making big plays all over the place. That's great. Speed linebackers of Ian's type have to do that because they're not much factor at the point of attack. Is Ian going to use what he learned watching Derrick Brooks last year and become that kind of player? He has all the tools and he has an organization that clearly believes in him. Until he does, this conversation probably isn't going anywhere.

[Play2win]

When Gold is ON, he gets to the ball FAST. His immediate acceleration and suddenness is very, very good. This is going to save our ARSE in the short passing game. Against WCO teams, and against teams like The Colts. Especially against Harrison. I expect Gold to do great against Quick-Slants, Short passes to the Flat and Screens. If used properly He is going to Shut-down alot of passing lanes. If he can help our line shut-down the opposition's short passing game, then I am all for it.

I just love how (almost) everybody condemns Gold before he even gets close to the playing field. Jeez, talk about jumping to conclusions. Give him atleast a chance to prove it on the field, This Field, This Year. Let him prove it on the field. Isn't that what its all about, PERFORMING on the FIELD?

[Drek]

I explain that Ian's not a reliable option as a pass rusher because he's only effective as a blitzer when he really surprises the offense. He's incapable of beating an OT if the guy knows he's coming. I'd have to agree with you here, he isn't a serious pass rushing linebacker, but then, we play a 4-3 with minimal amounts of linebacker pass rushing. The biggest role he and DJ will both play in our pass defense is in coverage though, which is a definate strong suit for Ian.

Coyer has typically blitzed all of our linebackers pretty equally and so that should minimize how easily teams can just key in on Ian coming around the corner. Also, having Trev in front of him will give him a real threat to play behind. I think because of these reasons he'll lead our 'backers in sacks, but thats more because he gets to play on the weakside in front of our most dominant DL. DJ could probably do the same, but DJ is more valuable on the strong side where he can make more tackles and learn to dominate TEs, which are quickly becoming a favorite weapon of many offenses.

[bendog]

I've avoided the thread up to now for a couple of reasons, mostly that it's just too early to tell a. whether like Slap said Gold was going to take angles, chase em down and make more tackles, and knock some balls loose, and b. I have no idea what the overall D is gonna be this year.

The notion of going 3-4 and then signing Gold made no sense.

The plan a of trading TP went nowhere.

My guess is that with a revamped pass rush with Eagleburger and Ebaneazor giving a more than adequate rotation and IF Big Ass can move the pocket a little, the notion is to throw if varied looks of zone. My guess is based upon the notion of Lynch and Gold both being back there. Contrary players, but both can do essentially the same job. Wilson can get a big drop, and DJ can run with a TE, at least till he passes him off to another guy's zone. Big physical corners who can run, and Ferguson should be a reliable center fielder.

If that's the notion, then signing Ian is OK. I don't see how that was "the plan," though it might have been, with shanny thinking he'd get a rook DE for TP, reel in a FA to take Haywards spot, and steal a guy like Eagleburger.

But given the Payaton Pussy Passing League, the trick seems to be to make the QB make his reads and a decision without a second look, and fool him with the coverage keys. Now how they stop Jamal if he's back, or SD if that oline holds up, or some team that's gonna run it 35 times ..... I dunno.

[-Slap-]

I've avoided the thread up to now for a couple of reasons, mostly that it's just too early to tell a. whether like Slap said Gold was going to take angles, chase em down and make more tackles, and knock some balls loose, and b. I have no idea what the overall D is gonna be this year.

The notion of going 3-4 and then signing Gold made no sense.

The plan a of trading TP went nowhere.

My guess is that with a revamped pass rush with Eagleburger and Ebaneazor giving a more than adequate rotation and IF Big Ass can move the pocket a little, the notion is to throw if varied looks of zone. My guess is based upon the notion of Lynch and Gold both being back there. Contrary players, but both can do essentially the same job. Wilson can get a big drop, and DJ can run with a TE, at least till he passes him off to another guy's zone. Big physical corners who can run, and Ferguson should be a reliable center fielder.

If that's the notion, then signing Ian is OK.

I tend to agree with this notion, too. The defense, as currently constructed, is physical enough to get a pure speed guy into the lineup in the front seven. It all depends on Ian. He's in the perfect situation to develop into a big play linebacker. He's got the tools and he's got the talent. Now lets see him go out there and have a career year that ends up in Honolulu.

http://img217.imageshack.us/img217/623/picture1865ic.jpg

[Atlas]

****.

On another thread, I said I was encouraged to hear the writer from ProFootballGuys praising Ian. They said he was making big plays all over the place. That's great. Speed linebackers of Ian's type have to do that because they're not much factor at the point of attack.


I believe that is why they got Gold because he is a play maker. Willaims and Wilson can fly all over the field and make tackles but truth be known they aren't playmakers. Denver needs a speed guy to run around sack the QB, bat down some balls and maybe get a couple of picks. If Denver stood pat and kept Spragen then Denver would have three LBs that can get to the ball and tackle. BUT they would have that one explosive LB that can change the course of the game.

Denver is a smart team and they have a smart system. I'm sure they can get Gold on the field and get him making plays without exposing him too much.

[bendog]

I edited out a part that while I really don't understand what they were trying to do initially, and I really do NOT doubt Wabbit's accuracy, seeing the new rule changes that don't let the WRs get hit, the only way to defend is to not give the qb, or good qbs, time to make more than their initial read. Make them pass based on just their keys, and not to be able to look around. And, use guys interchangably to change the keys. That appears to be what NE is doing.

Lynch and Gold make some sense. Ferguson for Kennedy does too, because both Ferguson and Kennedy can play either safety position. They can basically swith assignments without moving their snap position.

I was focusing more on the back 7 than the front 7. The new rules really change the game.

[SoCalBronco]

I believe that is why they got Gold because he is a play maker. Willaims and Wilson can fly all over the field and make tackles but truth be known they aren't playmakers. Denver needs a speed guy to run around sack the QB, bat down some balls and maybe get a couple of picks. If Denver stood pat and kept Spragen then Denver would have three LBs that can get to the ball and tackle. BUT they would have that one explosive LB that can change the course of the game.

Denver is a smart team and they have a smart system. I'm sure they can get Gold on the field and get him making plays without exposing him too much.

Are you serious Atlas?

[Atlas]

Are you serious Atlas?

When is the last time Wilson made a game winning play?? DJ played great last year but he got 1 sack i believe and one INT.

They are great LBs but they are not sack guys and they are not int guys. That being said Gold is a perfect compliment to them.

If Gold gets swallowed up on a running play Wilson or Williams can clean it up.

I look for Gold to lead the LBs in sacks with 4 or 5 possibly 6 and I also look for him to lead them in INTs with 2-4.

[SoCalBronco]

When is the last time Wilson made a game winning play?? DJ played great last year but he got 1 sack i believe and one INT.

They are great LBs but they are not sack guys and they are not int guys. That being said Gold is a perfect compliment to them.

If Gold gets swallowed up on a running play Wilson or Williams can clean it up.

I look for Gold to lead the LBs in sacks with 4 or 5 possibly 6 and I also look for him to lead them in INTs with 2-4.

I dont know about game winning plays, but Wilson had a few INTs last year. One of them he took in for a TD. I dont recall Gold ever making game winning plays on defense, he had that blocked kick for a TD against the raiders on ST awhile ago. I think Williams will make more plays this year. He made alot of TFL last year, id say thats a big play. He does have to snag more INTs i agree. I think he will snag 3-5 this year and have about 6 sacks. He forced 2 fumbles last year. Maybe this year he can force 4. Both of them are playmakers.

[Atlas]

I dont know about game winning plays, but Wilson had a few INTs last year. One of them he took in for a TD. I dont recall Gold ever making game winning plays on defense, he had that blocked kick for a TD against the raiders on ST awhile ago. I think Williams will make more plays this year. He made alot of TFL last year, id say thats a big play. He does have to snag more INTs i agree. I think he will snag 3-5 this year and have about 6 sacks. He forced 2 fumbles last year. Maybe this year he can force 4. Both of them are playmakers.

Wilson had 2 ints last year.

Wilson is a great LB. Wilson and Williams are both better than Gold. I have no problem with saying that. I'm just saying that Gold will add to the defense and make them beter....much better. Spragen had one sack last year and no ints and something like 30 tackles. I would think All of Denver's starting LBs will beat those stats.

With an improved Dline I believe the LBers will be monsters out there.