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View Full Version : Hey W*gs is China still our buddy?


Hotrod
07-11-2005, 03:52 PM
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ac758e36-f1f1-11d9-8e69-00000e2511c8.html

Read, digest, reply.

Spider
07-11-2005, 03:57 PM
http://news.ft.com/cms/s/ac758e36-f1f1-11d9-8e69-00000e2511c8.html

Read, digest, reply.
I am not W*GS , and I am on board with your views about Chinia , I have followed China a tad bit , but never saw this comming ......

bronco_diesel
07-11-2005, 03:58 PM
I am not W*GS , and I am on board with your views about Chinia , I have followed China a tad bit , but never saw this comming ......

what are hotrods views on china?

Spider
07-11-2005, 04:01 PM
what are hotrods views on china?
food is ok .MSG sucks ....... Crouching Tiger pissing Dragon sucked ....But Jackie Chan is cool

Spider
07-11-2005, 04:04 PM
what are hotrods views on china?
;D in case you are serious ..... Hotrod like me believes that China needs to be watched very closly ...... They could be a serious threat to us , and our economy .....

bronco_diesel
07-11-2005, 04:12 PM
;D in case you are serious ..... Hotrod like me believes that China needs to be watched very closly ...... They could be a serious threat to us , and our economy .....

i was hurt by the crouching tiger pissing dragon bit - aside from the ending, i liked it. :)

but i share the same views on the serious note. i do see them as a threat to us - see my other recent post.

Spider
07-11-2005, 04:16 PM
i was hurt by the crouching tiger pissing dragon bit - aside from the ending, i liked it. :)

but i share the same views on the serious note. i do see them as a threat to us - see my other recent post.
;D ..... well lets just hope that this is all just bluster and over hyped mumbo jumbo

elsid13
07-11-2005, 04:17 PM
If it is a problem/threat then how do you propose to fix it???????????

Spider
07-11-2005, 04:18 PM
If it is a problem/threat then how do you propose to fix it???????????
we cancel any airings of the simpons over there ........

REB
07-12-2005, 12:10 AM
No doubt China is a serious or gonna soon be a very serious problem for us. Their just waiting and watching very closely. There will be a showdown but I doubt it will be over Taiwan. I think it will be in the Middle east as China has now become the 2nd largest oil consumer in the world.

REB

1-2-3-:Broncos:!!!!!!!

Hotrod
07-12-2005, 06:59 AM
food is ok .MSG sucks ....... Crouching Tiger pissing Dragon sucked ....But Jackie Chan is cool

LOL that about sums it up.

Hotrod
07-12-2005, 07:02 AM
No doubt China is a serious or gonna soon be a very serious problem for us. Their just waiting and watching very closely. There will be a showdown but I doubt it will be over Taiwan. I think it will be in the Middle east as China has now become the 2nd largest oil consumer in the world.

REB

1-2-3-:Broncos:!!!!!!!

Taiwan maybe maybe not but something will spark a war of some form with China. You very well maybe correct it will be over oil. Im still not convinced China wants a physical war with us but Im starting to think they have already launched a war effort in the economical field. They will use the economy and the fact were bogged down in wars which are further hurting our economy/military.

Hotrod
07-12-2005, 07:06 AM
If it is a problem/threat then how do you propose to fix it???????????

You must force them to stop their unfair trade practices NOW not tomarrow. How to go about it is a problem in itself. Maybe some form of restrictions on trade IE get rid of the (oh heck what is it again) prefered trade partner status which Clinton handed them. Not alot the average Joe can do except try to not buy 'made in China' crap. The problem is thats almost if not entirly impossible.

Spider
07-12-2005, 07:16 AM
No doubt China is a serious or gonna soon be a very serious problem for us. Their just waiting and watching very closely. There will be a showdown but I doubt it will be over Taiwan. I think it will be in the Middle east as China has now become the 2nd largest oil consumer in the world.

REB

1-2-3-:Broncos:!!!!!!!
Taiwan is a serious issue ,No doubt China wants to invade Taiwan and take it back , the US wont let that happen , we cant .. China views the Issue as a in house Problem , that the US and the UN needs to butt out of the issue ..........

W*GS
07-12-2005, 08:49 AM
If you guys really think a war with China is inevitable, well, then it will happen.

I still haven't see a reasonable justification for China launching a war - what purpose would it serve?

And the "Yellow Horde" and "inscrutable Orientals" subtexts are there...

Hotrod
07-12-2005, 08:51 AM
If you guys really think a war with China is inevitable, well, then it will happen.

I still haven't see a reasonable justification for China launching a war - what purpose would it serve?

And the "Yellow Horde" and "inscrutable Orientals" subtexts are there...

LOL so your answer was Yes ???

Hotrod
07-12-2005, 08:55 AM
With all the threads that have been posted on this subject your the only one whos ever used terms like "Yellow Horde" or "inscrutable Orientals"

Of course the first rule when losing an argument is throw the race card right W*gs rofl

Rascal
07-12-2005, 09:09 AM
I really really wish we would put an across the board tariff on and force them to unpeg the yuan. I've heard people say that by doing so it will hurt China's economy....like i give a flying flip. I'm concerned about America and those who trade fairly, not those who engage in unfair trade practices (INSERT CHINA HERE).

This is really beginning to piss me off.

Somebody mentioned oil. While you may not agree with the war in Iraq, you must acknowledge the fact that by securing Iraq we are gaining a major advantage against China in the future issue of petroleum wars. But to gain even more of an advantage we must lessen our need on foreign oil but adapting an agressive plan on alternative fuels by studying Brazil. And we must also revamp our electricity grid, roads, water plants etc. I really think we need to undergo a massive internal reconstruction program. Hopefully, we will get out of Iraq ASAP and then use that money to do the reconstruction.

Hotrod
07-12-2005, 09:14 AM
I really really wish we would put an across the board tariff on and force them to unpeg the yuan. I've heard people say that by doing so it will hurt China's economy....like i give a flying flip. I'm concerned about America and those who trade fairly, not those who engage in unfair trade practices (INSERT CHINA HERE).

This is really beginning to piss me off.

Somebody mentioned oil. While you may not agree with the war in Iraq, you must acknowledge the fact that by securing Iraq we are gaining a major advantage against China in the future issue of petroleum wars. But to gain even more of an advantage we must lessen our need on foreign oil but adapting an agressive plan on alternative fuels by studying Brazil. And we must also revamp our electricity grid, roads, water plants etc. I really think we need to undergo a massive internal reconstruction program. Hopefully, we will get out of Iraq ASAP and then use that money to do the reconstruction.

Great post!

Someday the powers that be had better wake up and take seriously the alternative fuel source ideas. That wont happen as long as Oil companys control issues thru $$$$$

W*GS
07-12-2005, 12:42 PM
With all the threads that have been posted on this subject your the only one whos ever used terms like "Yellow Horde" or "inscrutable Orientals"

Why do you think I used the word "subtext"?

Spider
07-12-2005, 12:49 PM
If you guys really think a war with China is inevitable, well, then it will happen.

I still haven't see a reasonable justification for China launching a war - what purpose would it serve?

And the "Yellow Horde" and "inscrutable Orientals" subtexts are there...
you havent been paying attention . even to the Chinese goverment ........ Now you know better then to ask me to back my claim up , I will hit with link after link ....... you just choose to turn a blind eye to it ..... Maybe you are Chinese descent and you see this as an attack on you ie Yellow hoard ........

Hotrod
07-12-2005, 01:13 PM
Why do you think I used the word "subtext"?

Oh I see I figured you added the "subtext" thing to help deflect from the fact your whole "China is our frined" argument is based solely on if anyone says bad things about them they must be racist.

W*GS
07-12-2005, 04:12 PM
you havent been paying attention . even to the Chinese goverment ........ Now you know better then to ask me to back my claim up , I will hit with link after link

At least one of your links was to a site that was, shall we say charitably, a wee odd. Lots of stuff about UFOs and the like.

You can interpret the actions of the Chinese leadership as leading us into war against them; but that tells me more about your views in regards to China, and your basic paranoia and fear than it does about the actual potential of war with China in the near future.

No, I'm not Chinese, but folks like you who think that war is very nearly inevitable don't help things.

W*GS
07-12-2005, 04:14 PM
Oh I see I figured you added the "subtext" thing to help deflect from the fact your whole "China is our frined" argument is based solely on if anyone says bad things about them they must be racist.

China is far from our biggest trading partner, nor is it the nation which is most heavily invested in the US.

Where are your fears about the UK and Canada, for example, which are bigger trading partners and bigger investors in the US?

I've yet to see either you or Spider offer a coherent explanation for why China would engage in a war with us. What would they hope to gain?

Spider
07-12-2005, 04:18 PM
At least one of your links was to a site that was, shall we say charitably, a wee odd. Lots of stuff about UFOs and the like. One out of all of them , and I even said this one is iteresting ........ So your point is what ?

You can interpret the actions of the Chinese leadership as leading us into war against them; but that tells me more about your views in regards to China, and your basic paranoia and fear than it does about the actual potential of war with China in the near future.
Yeah silly me , a Country engages into a Massive military buildup , vows they want to take Taiwan back , means nothing ....... Just like you claimed China Wasnt engaging in War Drills and I showed you they was ...... Like I say you are blind as a Bat ......

No, I'm not Chinese, but folks like you who think that war is very nearly inevitable don't help things.
Well there has to be a reason for your Idiotcy when to comes to China

Spider
07-12-2005, 04:22 PM
China is far from our biggest trading partner, nor is it the nation which is most heavily invested in the US.

Where are your fears about the UK and Canada, for example, which are bigger trading partners and bigger investors in the US?

I've yet to see either you or Spider offer a coherent explanation for why China would engage in a war with us. What would they hope to gain?
http://www.humorbg.com/Karikaturi/animals/a-blind-man-and-his-dog.jpg

W*GS
07-12-2005, 04:27 PM
One out of all of them , and I even said this one is iteresting ........ So your point is what ?

That there is no shortage of Sinophobes out there, which isn't proof that China is a nation to be feared.

Yeah silly me , a Country engages into a Massive military buildup ,

Hardly "massive".

vows they want to take Taiwan back , means nothing

The Chinese attitude towards Taiwan is not new.

....... Just like you claimed China Wasnt engaging in War Drills and I showed you they was

What "war drills"? The thousands of Chinese troops in Mexico thing you linked to?

Well there has to be a reason for your Idiotcy when to comes to China

I don't fear China.

Why do you?

Spider
07-12-2005, 04:42 PM
That there is no shortage of Sinophobes out there, which isn't proof that China is a nation to be feared.
90% of those links were from The china media and the American Pentagon .....



Hardly "massive".
http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/library/news/taiwan/2000/e-03-13-00-5.htm
http://www.taiwandc.org/washt2001-03.htm
http://www.weijingsheng.org/doc/en/Pentagon%20warns%20of%20China%20threat.htm
http://www.boston.com/news/world/asia/articles/2005/06/04/us_criticizes_chinas_weapons_buildup/
there is more .......



The Chinese attitude towards Taiwan is not new.
And this makes this less of a threat how ? not to mention china now has some $$$ ...



What "war drills"? The thousands of Chinese troops in Mexico thing you linked to?
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/03/16/china.navy/
http://www2.chinadaily.com.cn/english/doc/2004-07/08/content_346370.htm




I don't fear China.

Why do you?
Fear ? LOL ...... Yeah ok ...... But then I dont dismiss threats either , your Idea is Ignore the warning lights for the Train then act suprised when the Train smacks you .....

L.A. BRONCOS FAN
07-12-2005, 04:45 PM
your Idea is Ignore the warning lights for the Train then act suprised when the Train smacks you .....

LOL

Yep - that's W*GS in a nutshell.

See no evil (unless it concerns Clinton's honker or Ted Kennedy, that is.)

Bronco_Beerslug
07-12-2005, 04:51 PM
China is far from our biggest trading partner, nor is it the nation which is most heavily invested in the US.

Where are your fears about the UK and Canada, for example, which are bigger trading partners and bigger investors in the US?

The U.S. imports from China were $196.7 billion in 2004 (an increase of 29%), making China the second largest exporter of goods to the United States, behind only Canada’s $256 billion export total. At current rates of growth, China will surpass Canada and become the largest supplier of U.S. imports in 2006.
http://tinyurl.com/bnrn8


http://www.isa.org/Images/InTech/2005/April/intech20050414-04.gif

L.A. BRONCOS FAN
07-12-2005, 04:53 PM
http://tinyurl.com/bnrn8


http://www.isa.org/Images/InTech/2005/April/intech20050414-04.gif


:laugh:

Can you say "owned?"

Hotrod
07-13-2005, 07:26 AM
Where are your fears about the UK and Canada, for example, which are bigger trading partners and bigger investors in the US?


Form of governments for one. Size of growth. Chinas growing demand for steel and oil. Allies the list grows and grows.

Hotrod
07-13-2005, 07:28 AM
http://tinyurl.com/bnrn8


http://www.isa.org/Images/InTech/2005/April/intech20050414-04.gif

LOL W*gs does not like facts

Rascal
07-13-2005, 08:51 AM
More stuff that hacks me off about China and how Bush is dealing with them. Looks like my continuous emailing to senators is paying off :) To bad the white house isn't listening.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,162338,00.html

W*GS
07-13-2005, 09:08 AM
But then I dont dismiss threats either , your Idea is Ignore the warning lights for the Train then act suprised when the Train smacks you .....

In what ways does China threaten us?

W*GS
07-13-2005, 09:13 AM
China's real weaknesses:

1. Its ageing society;

2. The fragility of its financial system;

3. Its sick capital markets;

4. The inefficiency of its economy;

5. Its weak service sector;

6. Shortages of skilled workers;

7. A political environment that is weighted against long-term business interests.

Spider
07-13-2005, 09:13 AM
In what ways does China threaten us?
are you serious ?
I have stated so many times , they are a threat as far as Taiwan , if China invades ( somthing they want to do ) that will throw us into it ...... I have repeated this so many times ....... I hope it sticks this time

W*GS
07-13-2005, 09:15 AM
are you serious ?
I have stated so many times , they are a threat as far as Taiwan , if China invades ( somthing they want to do ) that will throw us into it ...... I have repeated this so many times ....... I hope it sticks this time

So Chinese threats to invade Taiwan are quite credible and within the abilities of the Chinese military? The Chinese care not one whit about the repurcussions (military, political, and otherwise) from the US and the rest of the world if they did so?

I suppose you believe every other bit of political rhetoric you read, too.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan still doesn't threaten the US directly. What does China do that does?

Spider
07-13-2005, 09:18 AM
So Chinese threats to invade Taiwan are quite credible and within the abilities of the Chinese military? The Chinese care not one whit about the repurcussions (military, political, and otherwise) from the US and the rest of the world if they did so?
Yeah those Idiots in the Pentagon , CIA , Dont know what you know ......... the anti-succession law , Military build up , means nothing ......

I suppose you believe every other bit of political rhetoric you read, too.
LOL . do you realy want to go there ?

Spider
07-13-2005, 09:22 AM
.

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan still doesn't threaten the US directly. What does China do that does?
I see you added this also ........ Outside of the fact that America has pledge Protection to Taiwan you tell me . though some in the Pentagon say War could be 2 years away

W*GS
07-13-2005, 09:33 AM
I see you added this also ........ Outside of the fact that America has pledge Protection to Taiwan you tell me . though some in the Pentagon say War could be 2 years away

What would China gain by a military invasion of Taiwan?

Since you're so incredibly well-read about China, why don't you ever counter my list of China's weaknesses?

Because that list, which is entirely factual, puts your "China is going to rule the world and defeat the US in a war in the very near future" fear and paranoia right into the crapper?

Hotrod
07-13-2005, 09:39 AM
China's real weaknesses:

1. Its ageing society;

2. The fragility of its financial system;

3. Its sick capital markets;

4. The inefficiency of its economy;

5. Its weak service sector;

6. Shortages of skilled workers;

7. A political environment that is weighted against long-term business interests.

1. the ageing and growing population will soon be a huge problem for the communist leader (war would help with this in two ways) a) slow decrease poplution & keep unhappy citizens busy with the war effort

2. Again a great way to hide the problems of a country economic situation from its public is to get the worried about war (defend the homeland)

3. See answer #2

4. See answer #2 & #3

5. See answer #2 & #3 & #4 keep people busy with the war effor/machine

6. Dont need large #'s of skilled workers to fight

7. The political enviornment is on of over population which will soon get tired of current conditions communist goverment can avoid over throw/revolts by engaging the population in a war.

Hotrod
07-13-2005, 09:40 AM
What would China gain by a military invasion of Taiwan?

Since you're so incredibly well-read about China, why don't you ever counter my list of China's weaknesses?

Because that list, which is entirely factual, puts your "China is going to rule the world and defeat the US in a war in the very near future" fear and paranoia right into the crapper?

I guess I missed the post saying "China is gong to rule the world and defeat the US" ??? Oh wait there was not one.

Spider
07-13-2005, 09:52 AM
What would China gain by a military invasion of Taiwan?
Finaly a good question ..... first , you have to take in the Mainland China resources , vs the Taiwan factories now some say , that if Shina were to attack Taiwan , they would lose that wealth , I dont know about that , but in short , China would have alot to gain ..........

Since you're so incredibly well-read about China, why don't you ever counter my list of China's weaknesses?
I have , you just havent paid attention , I already told you more then once , there are More People in China under the age of 14 then there is in America ....
you have been Busted on the trading so many times , it is hardly worth Bringing up , you was Busted on the Military build up , and you was Busted on the Wartime Drills ......

Because that list, which is entirely factual, puts your "China is going to rule the world and defeat the US in a war in the very near future" fear and paranoia right into the crapper?
LOL .execpt i never claimed China will rule the world , that is your own fantasy .see W*GS , you know you are losing an Argument , when you have to overstate your oppenant position to make a point .......

Spider
07-13-2005, 09:54 AM
I guess I missed the post saying "China is gong to rule the world and defeat the US" ??? Oh wait there was not one.
LOL ... thats a tall tale sign that he is losing an Argument , Overstating our position to make a point ..... We never claimed China would rule the world , Hell I dont think any of us has Claimed China would beat us in a war , all we are saying is China cant be trusted , and they are doing things that warrent attention ......

W*GS
07-13-2005, 10:40 AM
1. the ageing and growing population will soon be a huge problem for the communist leader (war would help with this in two ways) a) slow decrease poplution & keep unhappy citizens busy with the war effort

China's population is on the verge of dropping - and a rapidly aging population, given the culture, will not make it so easy for the Chinese leadership to tell its young people to abandon their parents and grandparents (the 4-2-1 problem) and go fight a war.

2. Again a great way to hide the problems of a country economic situation from its public is to get the worried about war (defend the homeland)

Who would attack China such that China itself would need to be defended? What percentage of Chinese citizens believe Taiwan is "their" homeland, worthy of defense and a war?

6. Dont need large #'s of skilled workers to fight

To fight, maybe. To win, yes.

Do you think China is an unstoppable force that will inevitably be at war with the US?

W*GS
07-13-2005, 10:43 AM
Finaly a good question ..... first , you have to take in the Mainland China resources , vs the Taiwan factories now some say , that if Shina were to attack Taiwan , they would lose that wealth , I dont know about that , but in short , China would have alot to gain ..........

Like what?

An island devastated by a war? How would that be a gain?

I have , you just havent paid attention , I already told you more then once , there are More People in China under the age of 14 then there is in America ....

So? Sheer numbers do not mean power. China and India together are far more populous than the US is, but their combined power is far far less.

you have been Busted on the trading so many times , it is hardly worth Bringing up , you was Busted on the Military build up , and you was Busted on the Wartime Drills ......

I haven't been "Busted" on anything.

You want to make China out to be the boogeyman-du-jour.

LOL .execpt i never claimed China will rule the world , that is your own fantasy .see W*GS , you know you are losing an Argument , when you have to overstate your oppenant position to make a point .......

Then you've lost the argument already by overstating my position. Thanks for busting yourself - makes my job easier.

Spider
07-13-2005, 10:48 AM
Like what?

An island devastated by a war? How would that be a gain? Thats one of the arguments to a guestimated senario , We will see , I dont think there will be an all out destruction .......



So? Sheer numbers do not mean power. China and India together are far more populous than the US is, but their combined power is far far less.
I see so when you say Chinas aging Popluation is a problem and I say there are more People under the age of 14 , then the entire population of the USA , you come back is this ........



I haven't been "Busted" on anything. a song by Pam Tillis comes to mind . queen of Denial ......

You want to make China out to be the boogeyman-du-jour.
I dont , china is doing that on their own .......



Then you've lost the argument already by overstating my position. Thanks for busting yourself - makes my job easier.
Hilarious! . I feel like I am arguing with Pee wee Herman here . I know what I am but what are you ROFL! .......

Rascal
07-13-2005, 11:24 AM
Personally I'm not worried about China taking over Taiwan...at least yet.

But should they eclipse our economic or military powers then I would say it is a sure thing that they would.

Regarding your weaknesses Wigs:

1. Its ageing society; according to the CIA World Fact book 7.6% of their population is 65 and older. Compared that to US which has 12.4% and they are in obvious better shape...not to mention the fact that they don't have the social programs we do (read Social Security and Medicare) to support those that are older plus there are more working individuals to support that 7.6%. This argument is worthless.

2. The fragility of its financial system; It's finiancial system is weak, but with the yuan being pegged at 8.27 dollars they are rapping America in the process. Since when was compromising US workers for foreign growth good for the US?

3. Its sick capital markets; It's a communists society what do you expect?

4. The inefficiency of its economy; They just quadrupled their exports compared to their inports in June I think their efficiency is just fine.

5. Its weak service sector; According to the CIA source used above their labor force is 761 million with their labor force divided among agriculture (49%), industry (22%), and service (29%). Not to mention the fact that since when was a strong service factor ever a sign of a good economy. Consider that the US has 147 million workforce divided among farming (.7%), production (22.7%), mangerial (professional and technical) 34.9%, sales and office (25.5%) and other services (16.3%). Depending on what you call "service" there is not a large difference between the US and China...besides one could argue that if anything the US has become to service oriented in its economy.

6. Shortages of skilled workers; with a labor force of 760 million they may not have the %'s that we do, but they do have the numbers. And they are rapidly increasing that number. If you don't believe that then I suggest you go to a university and see how many chinese students being educated here in the states, then compare that with how many US students are in Chinese schools. Also consider the fact that their literacy rate is 91%...not shabby when you have that many people (US is 97%).

7. A political environment that is weighted against long-term business interests. Why should they be worried about long term when they are growing so fast. Their situation is very similar to the US after WWII. We were growing so fast that there was little thought of long term business interests.

Spider
07-13-2005, 11:27 AM
Personally I'm not worried about China taking over Taiwan...at least yet.

But should they eclipse our economic or military powers then I would say it is a sure thing that they would.

Regarding your weaknesses Wigs:

1. Its ageing society; according to the CIA World Fact book 7.6% of their population is 65 and older. Compared that to US which has 12.4% and they are in obvious better shape...not to mention the fact that they don't have the social programs we do (read Social Security and Medicare) to support those that are older plus there are more working individuals to support that 7.6%. This argument is worthless.

2. The fragility of its financial system; It's finiancial system is weak, but with the yuan being pegged at 8.27 dollars they are rapping America in the process. Since when was compromising US workers for foreign growth good for the US?

3. Its sick capital markets; It's a communists society what do you expect?

4. The inefficiency of its economy; They just quadrupled their exports compared to their inports in June I think their efficiency is just fine.

5. Its weak service sector; According to the CIA source used above their labor force is 761 million with their labor force divided among agriculture (49%), industry (22%), and service (29%). Not to mention the fact that since when was a strong service factor ever a sign of a good economy. Consider that the US has 147 million workforce divided among farming (.7%), production (22.7%), mangerial (professional and technical) 34.9%, sales and office (25.5%) and other services (16.3%). Depending on what you call "service" there is not a large difference between the US and China...besides one could argue that if anything the US has become to service oriented in its economy.

6. Shortages of skilled workers; with a labor force of 760 million they may not have the %'s that we do, but they do have the numbers. And they are rapidly increasing that number. If you don't believe that then I suggest you go to a university and see how many chinese students being educated here in the states, then compare that with how many US students are in Chinese schools. Also consider the fact that their literacy rate is 91%...not shabby when you have that many people (US is 97%).

7. A political environment that is weighted against long-term business interests. Why should they be worried about long term when they are growing so fast. Their situation is very similar to the US after WWII. We were growing so fast that there was little thought of long term business interests.

Good solid Post Rascal , but I do worry about China taking on Taiwan , I believe that Americans , can out Produce any country , while you are right about the yen being Pegged , instead of floating , we can over come that ....
everything you posted Rascal is true , and is a problem , but it wouldnt set us off in a war . Taiwan will and China wants Taiwan back .........

Hotrod
07-13-2005, 11:28 AM
Rascal all I can say is Wow

W*gs all I can say is OWNED

Hotrod
07-13-2005, 11:34 AM
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/ch.html#Military

Rascal
07-13-2005, 11:38 AM
Spider,

China does want Taiwan back. But they are not in a position to do so right now. They do not want to stop the growth that they are currently undergoing, and if they went after Taiwan that growth would stop. China isn't stupid, they understand that a war with the US would be devestating to them at this current moment. Instead they are going to continue to grow economically and militarilly until they are able to take the hit that would occur when they do go after Taiwan. It won't be this decade, but it might be in the next one.

But like you this is just my opinion as nobody knows what is going to happen.

Spider
07-13-2005, 11:42 AM
Spider,

China does want Taiwan back. But they are not in a position to do so right now. They do not want to stop the growth that they are currently undergoing, and if they went after Taiwan that growth would stop. China isn't stupid, they understand that a war with the US would be devestating to them at this current moment. Instead they are going to continue to grow economically and militarilly until they are able to take the hit that would occur when they do go after Taiwan. It won't be this decade, but it might be in the next one.

But like you this is just my opinion as nobody knows what is going to happen.
I agree, I dont agree with the 2 year time frame ..... but in 5 or 10 years , who knows .....
but I think we can agree that China is posturing right now , and their posturing warrents the USA to keep an eye on them ..........

W*GS
07-13-2005, 12:05 PM
Thats one of the arguments to a guestimated senario , We will see , I dont think there will be an all out destruction .......

So, how much destruction can Taiwan suffer before China's invasion becomes a losing proposition?

I see so when you say Chinas aging Popluation is a problem and I say there are more People under the age of 14 , then the entire population of the USA , you come back is this ........

Read up on the topic of demographics. What's more important than the sheer number of people in a given age group is the relative percentage of the total population in each age group and how those percentages are changing over time.

I dont , china is doing that on their own .......

Kinda like the US is the boogeyman to a lot of people around the world? Do Americans view our actions as that of a warmongering power bent on global empire?

Spider
07-13-2005, 12:20 PM
So, how much destruction can Taiwan suffer before China's invasion becomes a losing proposition?
Such an open ended question ....... you answer that .....



Read up on the topic of demographics. What's more important than the sheer number of people in a given age group is the relative percentage of the total population in each age group and how those percentages are changing over time.
http://66.49.247.155/BB/showpost.php?p=677783&postcount=49
read this post . study it . understand it .......

L.A. BRONCOS FAN
07-13-2005, 05:23 PM
LOL W*gs does not like facts

Indeed.

Especially those facts that topple the house of cards that is his ideology, viz., that any government regulation of trade and commerce is inherently evil, and that the 'free market' is inherently good, trustworthy, fair, and a level playing field. In other words, according to W*GS' reasoning, we're all better off under a regime where multinational corporations are the government.

W*GS
07-13-2005, 06:02 PM
Indeed.

I'll take that as someone speaking from vast experience of a tenuous (at best) grasp of and familiarity with the facts on almost any subject.

Especially those facts that topple the house of cards that is his ideology, viz., that any government regulation of trade and commerce is inherently evil, and that the 'free market' is inherently good, trustworthy, fair, and a level playing field. In other words, according to W*GS' reasoning, we're all better off under a regime where multinational corporations are the government.

Funny, you used the name "W*GS" in the above, but nowhere do I see an actual and accurate summation of my views.

In short, you've bludgeoned the strawman, LABF. Now try addressing my real arguments, not your fantasies about them.

W*GS
07-13-2005, 06:06 PM
Such an open ended question ....... you answer that .....

It's your position that a Chinese attack upon Taiwan is just short of certain; and the reasons you've given for your views would require some thought about the subject. Clearly, you've not gone much beyond the fearmongering stage.

http://66.49.247.155/BB/showpost.php?p=677783&postcount=49 read this post . study it . understand it .......

I've got a reply prepared, but for some reason, all attempts to post it have failed. Eh, I'll try again tomorrow.

It's safe to say that Rascal is wrong in his facts and his interpretations of the facts in multiple instances.

SoCalBronco
07-13-2005, 06:09 PM
It's your position that a Chinese attack upon Taiwan is just short of certain; and the reasons you've given for your views would require some thought about the subject. Clearly, you've not gone much beyond the fearmongering stage.



I've got a reply prepared, but for some reason, all attempts to post it have failed. Eh, I'll try again tomorrow.

It's safe to say that Rascal is wrong in his facts and his interpretations of the facts in multiple instances.

w*gs,
i think a problem might be due to the server, since about a week ago, its been hard to post something over a certain word limit so you gotta break it up into different posts.

Spider
07-13-2005, 06:13 PM
It's your position that a Chinese attack upon Taiwan is just short of certain; and the reasons you've given for your views would require some thought about the subject. Clearly, you've not gone much beyond the fearmongering stage. it still cracks me up you sit here and pretend to have a deeper understanding then the pentagon , and despite me posting link after link from the chineese ..... Why does it have ot be an all out invasion ?




I've got a reply prepared, but for some reason, all attempts to post it have failed. Eh, I'll try again tomorrow.

It's safe to say that Rascal is wrong in his facts and his interpretations of the facts in multiple instances.
CIA Facts vs W*GS Reply ...... What one to believe ...... tough choice .... hmmmmm Ok I will go with the CIA , so save your answer it will fall upon deaf ears .unless of course it has some humor value , then by all means post it

W*GS
07-13-2005, 06:20 PM
it still cracks me up you sit here and pretend to have a deeper understanding then the pentagon , and despite me posting link after link from the chineese ..... Why does it have ot be an all out invasion ?

You tell me. So what are China's plans for Taiwan such that the Pentagon is so concerned, you're so concerned about a "massive military buildup" and (apparently) thousands of Chinese troops engaging in military drills? Is it all a bluff, just to make us think China will attack Taiwan, when in fact their plans are far more subtle and insidious?

Make up your mind.

CIA Facts vs W*GS Reply ...... What one to believe ...... tough choice .... hmmmmm Ok I will go with the CIA , so save your answer it will fall upon deaf ears .unless of course it has some humor value , then by all means post it

Indeed I shall - not much humor in it really, and some links that disprove Rascal's takes.

Besides, why trust the CIA? They've botched more things than not for oh, about 20 years now.

Spider
07-13-2005, 06:25 PM
You tell me. So what are China's plans for Taiwan such that the Pentagon is so concerned, you're so concerned about a "massive military buildup" and (apparently) thousands of Chinese troops engaging in military drills? Is it all a bluff, just to make us think China will attack Taiwan, when in fact their plans are far more subtle and insidious?

Make up your mind.
Oh my mind is made up , I proved my Case , others have seen , you on the other hand realy havent added anything , just denial ..... Untill you come up with some hard facts , your take on this issue is being dismissed as a joke , and not just by me .. take it for what it is worth .....




Indeed I shall - not much humor in it really, and some links that disprove Rascal's takes.

Besides, why trust the CIA? They've botched more things than not for oh, about 20 years now.
I dont believe the CIA was that far off on anything , their reports were tampered twith , but thats for another thread ........ CIA did a hellva Job tracking ans stocking the Russians , CIA can handle China .... So anything you post better be rock solid .......

W*GS
07-13-2005, 06:30 PM
Oh my mind is made up , I proved my Case , others have seen , you on the other hand realy havent added anything , just denial ....

And your case is what? We need to pay attention to China? Well duh, that's true. China is our enemy? What have you shown that proves that? China is buying Russian military junk?

I dont believe the CIA was that far off on anything,

Only the Iranian revolution that overthrew the Shah, the collapse of the USSR, India and Pakistan testing nuclear weapons, Saddam's lack of WMD, the 9/11 attacks...

Those four things alone are pretty damned big screw-ups by the CIA.

Bronco_Beerslug
07-13-2005, 06:34 PM
Because that list, which is entirely factual, puts your "China is going to rule the world and defeat the US in a war in the very near future" fear and paranoia right into the crapper?
There will be no war between the U.S. and any country (unless a madman starts pushing the buttons) that possesses multiple nuclear weapons (with the ability to deliver them anywhere in the world). If there were it would be the beginning of the end. All these countries understand this. The only countries that have to fear war are the ones that DON"T have nuclear weapons and have resources that are in demand.
The one thing we have to worry about is off shoring everything we depend on. China and other Asian countries continue to keep growing on the American dollar. Once all the steel mills, mining operations, oil and gas resources, textiles, etc... are all gone from this country, we then are open for any number of catastrophes.

L.A. BRONCOS FAN
07-13-2005, 06:36 PM
CIA Facts vs W*GS Reply ...... What one to believe ...... tough choice ....

rofl

Why, you should go with the guy who thinks he "is" the NRA, of course.

:laugh:

Spider
07-13-2005, 06:44 PM
And your case is what? We need to pay attention to China? Well duh, that's true. China is our enemy? What have you shown that proves that? China is buying Russian military junk?
where have I claimed China is the enemy ? .......



Only the Iranian revolution that overthrew the Shah,
didnt Claw Mathews break the code before the fall of the Shah ? What to do about it was another thing , but the CIA was on top of it ...


the collapse of the USSR,
it is clear the CIA didnt expect alot of the fall out we face today with Russia fall , But in 1986 , the CIA was very active in Russia , shortly before the fall of communism , who do you think was supplying Bin Ladin with Arms and Money ?

India and Pakistan testing nuclear weapons, Saddam's lack of WMD, the 9/11 attacks...

Those four things alone are pretty damned big screw-ups by the CIA.
I think the lack of WMD is on Bush , at least that is what is surfacing ....

W*GS
07-13-2005, 06:45 PM
The one thing we have to worry about is off shoring everything we depend on. China and other Asian countries continue to keep growing on the American dollar.

Therefore, they have an interest in a strong American economy. Where else are they going to send their low-profit plastic crap? Each other? Europe? Africa?

Once all the steel mills, mining operations, oil and gas resources, textiles, etc... are all gone from this country, we then are open for any number of catastrophes.

Ohmigod! Textiles! The Chinese could make us all nekkid and have to use paper towels to cover our bare asses in the winter! Eeeek!

Now, get real. What are the odds that "all the steel mills, mining operations, oil and gas resources, textiles, etc... are all gone from this country"? How does one move a mine to China? Or an oil field?

Strangely, the percentage of the American GDP that has come from the above things has been in decline for decades, yet we are richer now than we ever have been. Are we heading for an inevitable crash, our economic lives based on lies? Is China poised to wipe us off the economic map?

I don't think so - the implication is that we Americans have gotten so soft and weak that we can't compete. If we have, that has more to do with the Left side of the aisle than the Right, honestly.

PS - China can have Maytag. Who the eff cares what happens to it, anyway?

Bronco_Beerslug
07-13-2005, 06:54 PM
Therefore, they have an interest in a strong American economy. Where else are they going to send their low-profit plastic crap? Each other? Europe? Africa?
Exactly!




Ohmigod! Textiles! The Chinese could make us all nekkid and have to use paper towels to cover our bare asses in the winter! Eeeek!

Now, get real. What are the odds that "all the steel mills, mining operations, oil and gas resources, textiles, etc... are all gone from this country"? How does one move a mine to China? Or an oil field?
Exxon just announced they are building their next refinery in China.
If you can't see that this country is off shoring our industrial manufacturing on a steady increasing basis you're wearing blinders.



Strangely, the percentage of the American GDP that has come from the above things has been in decline for decades, yet we are richer now than we ever have been. Are we heading for an inevitable crash, our economic lives based on lies? Is China poised to wipe us off the economic map?

Exactly again! If we keep moving towards a service economy this is what can happen.

W*GS
07-13-2005, 07:03 PM
Exactly!

Let's see - if the Asian economies start trading around low-profit plastic crap to each other, how do they get rich? If they start shipping to Africa, that's a sure loser. Europe? With its moribund (to say the least) economic state? Where else besides the US are there hundreds of millions of very wealthy people to buy Chinese goods?

Exxon just announced they are building their next refinery in China.

So that leaves them with how many elsewhere?

If you can't see that this country is off shoring our industrial manufacturing on a steady increasing basis you're wearing blinders.

Those folks are welcome to it - a dirty, low-profit, huge capital-expense, economically vulnerable way to make a little wealth. Next thing you know, all our gas grills will be made in China and millions of men with cute little aprons will be held hostage for their summertime cooking duties.

I don't see China as a threat - I see them as an opportunity. As they get wealthier, they'll want more and more of the stuff we make and the services we provide.

Exactly again! If we keep moving towards a service economy this is what can happen.

Amazing that shifting bits of magnetic material around can be worth billions, isn't it?

What sort of protectionist measures should we impose to make sure the hard-hat-wearing American Working Man can have a place to take his lunchbox and his Thermos and earn a decent wage for an honest day's work?

Bronco_Beerslug
07-13-2005, 07:18 PM
When oil companies beginning locating their facilities in competing countries we have a problem. It's just the beginning. In case you haven't figured it out yet, your analogy of how rich we're getting is really great if you're the small minority at the top of the ever widening gap between the rich and poor but for everyone else it kinda sucks since real wages are declining.

Kerry had the right idea, Instead of encouraging companies to off shore give them tax breaks and other incentives to stay home and produce goods here.
Find a way to lift the health care costs burden off of companies (so they can remain competive in their own country) and offer all employees basic health care.

What is exactly that this country is manufacturing these days that the rest of the world can't live with out?

W*GS
07-13-2005, 07:38 PM
When oil companies beginning locating their facilities in competing countries we have a problem.

Strictly speaking, China isn't competing with the US - Chinese companies (hampered as they are) are attempt to compete with US companies. Then again, given the nature of multinational corporations, it's sometimes difficult to say whether or not a given company is American, French, British, or whatever.

In case you haven't figured it out yet, your analogy of how rich we're getting is really great if you're the small minority at the top of the ever widening gap between the rich and poor but for everyone else it kinda sucks since real wages are declining.

Wages are not the sole arbiter of wealth, you know.

Is it China's fault that the rich are getting richer? Is it the case that the wealth pie is fixed so every time someone gets $1 richer, someone else has to get $1 poorer? Besides, how do you say that someone today is poor when (for example) they have a VCR, which 30 years ago, no-one could afford?

Kerry had the right idea, Instead of encouraging companies to off shore give them tax breaks and other incentives to stay home and produce goods here.

What encourages companies to offshore some operations? Just greedy pursuit of profit? How do you control that without throttling it? Besides, you're just advocating corporate welfare, which I thought liberals like yourself hated. And, in any case, that does nothing to address the wealth imbalance that you're so concerned about - the filthy rich will get filthier regardless.

Find a way to lift the health care costs burden off of companies (so they can remain competive in their own country) and offer all employees basic health care.

Shifting those costs to taxpayers doesn't solve the problem. Why do you think it will? Perhaps companies shouldn't take on the burden of retirees' health care costs - but then the unions would never allow that, would they?

What is exactly that this country is manufacturing these days that the rest of the world can't live with out?

Our exports are booming; someone must find value in our goods and services. Ask them why they Buy American. Probably something to do with value - as a financial wiz, I should think you'd understand something about macroeconomics and international trade.

Bronco_Beerslug
07-13-2005, 08:10 PM
More and more analysts are talking about how healthcare costs are going to drag down our economy and possibly cause a long, deep recession or worse. They also are talking about the costs of medical care for the 50 million or so uninsured Americans and it's effect on our economy. Something has to be done, and soon. What's your solution? Do you have any ideas on solving the healthcare crisis in this country? All I ever hear is how it's the workers fault for wanting the benefits they worked for all their life (even though the company signed a contract to provide those benefits).

If the politicians of this country would put as much effort and money into creating renewable energies (starting right now) and getting off big oil and gas as they do in starting wars and pandering to corporate America, we would create whole new industries and a new and better economy. In the process we would become a more stable and SECURE country!

REB
07-13-2005, 09:50 PM
China does want Taiwan back. But they are not in a position to do so right now. They do not want to stop the growth that they are currently undergoing, and if they went after Taiwan that growth would stop. China isn't stupid, they understand that a war with the US would be devestating to them at this current moment. Instead they are going to continue to grow economically and militarilly until they are able to take the hit that would occur when they do go after Taiwan."



Exactly,,, That's why I say they (Chinese) are watching and learning and one day all will understand

REB

1-2-3-:Broncos:!!!!!!!

Rascal
07-14-2005, 07:46 AM
Looking forward to this awesome post by wigs with enough evidence to disclaim CIA facts and figures and no that economics website is not credible enough to do so.

Hotrod
07-14-2005, 07:53 AM
Looking forward to this awesome post by wigs with enough evidence to disclaim CIA facts and figures and no that economics website is not credible enough to do so.

Might as well go back to sleep he aint gonna actually touch the facts. :nono:

W*GS
07-14-2005, 09:10 AM
Part 1:

Regarding your weaknesses Wigs:

1. Its ageing society; according to the CIA World Fact book 7.6% of their population is 65 and older. Compared that to US which has 12.4% and they are in obvious better shape...not to mention the fact that they don't have the social programs we do (read Social Security and Medicare) to support those that are older plus there are more working individuals to support that 7.6%. This argument is worthless.

Wrong:

http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/40/China,_a_demographic_time_bomb.html

China is in far worse shape to handle their rapidly-aging population than the US is.

2. The fragility of its financial system; It's finiancial system is weak, but with the yuan being pegged at 8.27 dollars they are rapping America in the process. Since when was compromising US workers for foreign growth good for the US?

Doesn't the fact that China is very strongly dependent on massive export growth to sustain itself make it extremely vulnerable to changes in other nations' economies? Since you and others constantly bemoan that China is growing economically at our expense, does China really want the US economy to stumble? To where would their exports (which are a strong key to their economy) go?

3. Its sick capital markets; It's a communists society what do you expect?

Misallocation of capital (i.e., capital is allocated for reasons other than economic ones, e.g., political pull and so on) is not a long-term growth model.

China has a big problem with its banks being saddled with excessive debt; indeed, a lot of folks who purchased cars simply quit paying for them when the rules were tightened. How long do you think Citicorp would stay in business if the folks who owed it money just quit paying?

W*GS
07-14-2005, 09:10 AM
Part 2:

4. The inefficiency of its economy; They just quadrupled their exports compared to their inports in June I think their efficiency is just fine.

If China's economy is so efficient, why are they so utterly reliable on exporting their low-return goods? And why are their imports of oil and other inputs growing so rapidly? Those two things make China especially vulnerable to external shocks - either increases in the costs of their imports, and declines in the countries that import Chinese goods.

5. Its weak service sector; According to the CIA source used above their labor force is 761 million with their labor force divided among agriculture (49%), industry (22%), and service (29%).

How many are unemployed?

http://www.usc.cuhk.edu.hk/wk_wzdetails.asp?id=4254

What nation has ever gotten rich and powerful with fully 1/2 the people engaged in agriculture?

Not to mention the fact that since when was a strong service factor ever a sign of a good economy.

The United States, for example.

Depending on what you call "service" there is not a large difference between the US and China...

0.7% in agriculture for the US versus 49% in China?

That's a pretty goddamned big difference.

6. Shortages of skilled workers; with a labor force of 760 million they may not have the %'s that we do, but they do have the numbers.

So they have a lot of people who can put crap plastic goods into brightly-colored boxes for export.

Where are their millions of engineers? Attorneys? Programmers? Folks with technical and professional skills are where wealth is at, not assembly-line folks.

And they are rapidly increasing that number. If you don't believe that then I suggest you go to a university and see how many chinese students being educated here in the states, then compare that with how many US students are in Chinese schools. Also consider the fact that their literacy rate is 91%...not shabby when you have that many people (US is 97%).

The fact that China's best and brightest have to go overseas to get a good education tells you something.

7. A political environment that is weighted against long-term business interests. Why should they be worried about long term when they are growing so fast.

That growth needs to be sustainable if the leadership wants to remain in power. Short-term thinking is rightly considered to be a very poor way of planning. What makes China exempt from that?

W*GS
07-14-2005, 09:12 AM
Looking forward to this awesome post by wigs with enough evidence to disclaim CIA facts and figures and no that economics website is not credible enough to do so.

Done.

And to what "economics website" are you referring?

W*GS
07-14-2005, 09:34 AM
More and more analysts are talking about how healthcare costs are going to drag down our economy and possibly cause a long, deep recession or worse. They also are talking about the costs of medical care for the 50 million or so uninsured Americans and it's effect on our economy. Something has to be done, and soon. What's your solution? Do you have any ideas on solving the healthcare crisis in this country? All I ever hear is how it's the workers fault for wanting the benefits they worked for all their life (even though the company signed a contract to provide those benefits).

The problem is that the discipline created by supply and demand via prices has been so manipulated that the health care market is a big mess. The health care system in this country is not a market failure - it's a messing-with-the-market failure. The incentives for consumers and producers are almost completely wrong. Does it really make sense to spend tens of thousands of health care dollars to keep a terminally-ill elderly person alive for a few more months? Does it make sense to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars, maybe millions, to keep alive a child born with incredibly severe defects that eliminate any chance of normality? What are the incentives to all of us to live reasonably healthy lives, rather than trying to "get away" with unhealthy lifestyles that cost us personally next to nothing to fix when it catches up? For the births of our three kids, we had to pay a few hundred out-of-pocket. The total charges (and none were complicated births) were well over $20,000. How do we change that, so that the health care dollars we consume are more-closely tied to what we can actually pay?

If the politicians of this country would put as much effort and money into creating renewable energies (starting right now) and getting off big oil and gas as they do in starting wars and pandering to corporate America, we would create whole new industries and a new and better economy. In the process we would become a more stable and SECURE country!

I'd rather the politicians mess with the market as little as possible - instead of trying to create industries (a job they are woefully unable to do, honestly), they should let market discipline work as fully as possible. The fossil fuel industry gets huge direct and indirect subsidies - eliminate them. Make consumers pay as close to the true costs of their consumption as possible - if that means $5/gallon gas, so be it. There is no government program or policy as inventive and responsive to solving a problem as the market - so let it work!

Rascal
07-15-2005, 08:26 AM
Part 1:

Wrong:

http://www.oecdobserver.org/news/fullstory.php/aid/40/China,_a_demographic_time_bomb.html

China is in far worse shape to handle their rapidly-aging population than the US is.



That article is so full of speculation it is ridiculous. First off it assumes that China will not be able to increase it's own grain production and not industrialize...which is flat out wrong.

Second it assumes that there will be a major shift to urban areas when that is not known.


Doesn't the fact that China is very strongly dependent on massive export growth to sustain itself make it extremely vulnerable to changes in other nations' economies? Since you and others constantly bemoan that China is growing economically at our expense, does China really want the US economy to stumble? To where would their exports (which are a strong key to their economy) go?


You assume that China wouldn't be able to diversify it's economy. Have you taken a hard look at their trading numbers recently or just relied on out of date articles like the one you posted. The are rapidly industrializing their economy and educating their population.


Misallocation of capital (i.e., capital is allocated for reasons other than economic ones, e.g., political pull and so on) is not a long-term growth model. [QUOTE=W*GS]

moving capital for political pull is a long term growth model...can you corruption?

[QUOTE=W*GS]
China has a big problem with its banks being saddled with excessive debt; indeed, a lot of folks who purchased cars simply quit paying for them when the rules were tightened. How long do you think Citicorp would stay in business if the folks who owed it money just quit paying?

And how much US currency and other currency are those banks buying up and storing in their vaults not to mention the fact that their national debt is not near what the US debt is. Those banks aren't in near as much trouble as people think they are.

Rascal
07-15-2005, 08:32 AM
Experts would also argue that America is to dependent on the service sector and that our best days were when we were manufacture oriented.

The % of people in service of US compared to China is not that far off, where they have a huge difference is in agriculture.

China's best and brightest don't have to come here, we are paying them to. WHy I have no idea. I've been there and they are building like you wouldn't believe. They are building roads, power plants, schools, etc. And they are doing it at the expense of the american worker.

Fortunately, it looks like we are making some progress.

http://money.cnn.com/2005/07/15/news/international/yuan.reut/index.htm
BEIJING (Reuters) - The Bush administration has told key senators that it expects China to revalue the yuan in August, before President Hu Jintao visits Washington in September, a newspaper said Friday.

A spokesman for the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, declined to comment on the report.

A spokesman for the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's currency regulator, restated Beijing's long-held stance that there was no timetable for a possible change in the yuan's peg of near 8.28 to the dollar.

The Financial Times, quoting unnamed people familiar with the matter, said Treasury Secretary John Snow had named August as the likely date for a change at a meeting last month with Senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham, co-sponsors of a bill that would impose a 27.5 percent tariff on Chinese imports.

The two said at the time they had agreed to postpone a hearing on their bill after receiving assurances from Snow and Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan that a change in China's currency regime was imminent.

"Senator Graham and I believe that the administration is convinced that China will begin a revaluation process this summer, forced by our bill's success in the Senate," Schumer told the Financial Times.

Beijing, while resisting foreign pressure to revalue, has long promised to make the currency more flexible through gradual reforms, but says it must first strengthen its financial system and ensure its economy is stable.

Many economists agree the run-up to Hu's U.S. visit provides a window of opportunity to widen the yuan's trading band.

"I am quite persuaded that something might happen perhaps as early as August before the U.S. Congress returns," said Uwe Parpart of Bank of America in Hong Kong.

Snow's spokesman, Tony Fratto, told the Financial Times his boss had not been specific. "Secretary Snow did not provide an assurance on a specific timeframe for when China would reform its currency regime. Targeting a specific date or timeframe is counter-productive," the paper quoted Fratto as saying.

"That said, it is clear that China is prepared to move now. It would be in the best interests of China, and the global financial system, if these reforms came sooner rather than later," Fratto added.

Snow himself said on Thursday he was unsure when China would allow the yuan to move more freely.

"We think they should move as soon as possible but I have no prediction on when that might happen," Snow told CNBC television.

W*GS
07-15-2005, 09:46 AM
That article is so full of speculation it is ridiculous.

So look at the following, then:

http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/ChinaFood/data/anim/pop_ani.htm
or
http://www.nationmaster.com/country/ch/Age_distribution

Second it assumes that there will be a major shift to urban areas when that is not known.

There are no jobs in the rural areas. So where will rural Chinese go to get work? Every other nation that made the transition from agriculture to industry has had a shift in population from rural to urban. What makes China different?

You assume that China wouldn't be able to diversify it's economy.

I make no such assumptions. However, diversification is far more difficult in a command economy than in an entrepreneurial one. See the USSR and North Korea, Cuba and the other communist nations as examples.

The Chinese leaderership is attempting to walk the very fine line of maintaining their power yet allowing the economy to grow via some allowance of market freedoms. I don't believe that is something that will work for much longer - folks who aren't just concerned where their next meal is coming from (i.e., a budding middle class) have the time to think about things like political freedom. We will see what happens.

Have you taken a hard look at their trading numbers recently or just relied on out of date articles like the one you posted.

China is running a trade surplus with the US, true - but is running deficits with other countries. Overall, it has a very small trade surplus.

The are rapidly industrializing their economy and educating their population.

Should we attempt to keep them from doing so?

And how much US currency and other currency are those banks buying up and storing in their vaults not to mention the fact that their national debt is not near what the US debt is.

Really? Do you have any data to support this?

Besides, why would China be buying up US Treasuries if they wanted to destroy us economically? Wouldn't that be a tremendous waste of their money?

Those banks aren't in near as much trouble as people think they are.

So prove it.

Chinese banks are in a financial mess, because they've been pawns of the politicians for decades, so their lending has been based on political concerns, not financial ones. A bank cannot survive if it has lots of bad loans, which Chinese banks do, for the above reason.