Superbowl Odds

[BritBronco Maniac]

Ok, every year I try to tell myself the Broncos are not going to win the Superbowl, DON'T BET ON THEM!

Yet every year I come to look at the odds and I think, those odds are just too big, surely its worth a bet.

This year I had convinced myself not to bet on them, but I thought I would just have a little peek at the odds, and to my shock they are 50/1!

Both the Chargers and the Chefs are shorter than them (both around 30/1)

Now, will someone with a clear head please tell my why the odds are so big, and why the Chefs deserve to be shorter?

Last time I checked Denver made the playoffs last season, have they really got worse since last year?
What have the Chefs done to get so much better?

[Arkie]

Last year, we were 10 to 1.

http://66.49.247.155/BB/showthread.php?t=16852

I just noticed the Steelers were 20 to 1, and the Dolphins were 17 to 1! A lot can change in one year. The Chargers were 80 to 1!

[RukdaFaidas]

Now, will someone with a clear head please tell my why the odds are so big, and why the Chefs deserve to be shorter?

http://www.aneatlittlepackage.com/RoseGlassesCover.jpg

[TheReverend]

50 to 1???? Im going to throw $20 on it.

[Hercules Rockefeller]

Now, will someone with a clear head please tell my why the odds are so big, and why the Chefs deserve to be shorter?


Surtain, the Browncos, and last year's playoff game

[KillerBronco#76]

hey if ya throw 100$ thats 5000$ if they do it

sounds like a good deal to me

[RukdaFaidas]

Vegas.com has the Broncos listed at 25.:1, the Chiefs 17:1 and Chargers 15:1.
http://www.vegas.com/gaming/futures/superbowl.html

[Bronco_Beerslug]

From Sportsbook.com.............

-------------------------------------------------------
Odds to win 2006 Super Bowl - Detroit MI
02-05-06 6:00 PM


New England Patriots 6-1

Indianapolis Colts 8-1

Philadelphia Eagles 6-1

Pittsburgh Steelers 16-1

San Diego Chargers 28-1

Denver Broncos 35-1

Kansas City Chiefs 25-1

Baltimore Ravens 17-1

New York Jets 25-1

Buffalo Bills 40-1

Green Bay Packers 40-1

Minnesota Vikings 18-1

Atlanta Falcons 16-1

Carolina Panthers 17-1

Seattle Seahawks 40-1

St Louis Rams 40-1

Jacksonville Jaguars 40-1

Tennessee Titans 100-1

Houston Texans 65-1

Washington Redskins 40-1

Detroit Lions 40-1

Cincinnati Bengals 40-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 60-1

New Orleans Saints 60-1

Dallas Cowboys 38-1

Chicago Bears 50-1

New York Giants 55-1

Arizona Cardinals 50-1

Oakland Raiders 30-1

Miami Dolphins 100-1

Cleveland Browns 100-1

San Francisco 49ers 200-1

[Bob's your Information Minister]

What have the Chefs done to get so much better?

Must...resist...the urge....

[Hercules Rockefeller]

From Sportsbook.com.............

-------------------------------------------------------
Odds to win 2006 Super Bowl - Detroit MI
02-05-06 6:00 PM

San Diego Chargers 28-1

Denver Broncos 35-1

Kansas City Chiefs 25-1

New York Jets 25-1

Jacksonville Jaguars 40-1

Washington Redskins 40-1

Detroit Lions 40-1

Cincinnati Bengals 40-1

Oakland Raiders 30-1


High, low, low, high, low, way too high, high, high, way way too high

[eddie mac]

I already got the Vikes at 33-1 during FA for the Superbowl and a good price to win the division and the NFC crown. The Broncos odds have really gone out over the last 2 months or so, around the middle of FA you wouldn't have gotten better odds than around 20/1.

[ak1971]

Just bet your teams futures year in and year out and it will pay. Had a buddy who does this with NE and hit the jackpot a few years back. I got 18-1 in Vegas on the Donks in Feb, wish I could have got 50-1, since I am probably throwing my $$$ away

[TheReverend]

Where do you guys go to make your bets?

[ak1971]

Where do you guys go to make your bets?

Usually Vegas, or with some guido

[El Guapo]

mex-i-COoooooo! [/supertroopers]

[yavoon]

Just bet your teams futures year in and year out and it will pay. Had a buddy who does this with NE and hit the jackpot a few years back. I got 18-1 in Vegas on the Donks in Feb, wish I could have got 50-1, since I am probably throwing my $$$ away


good thing ur buddy didnt live in cincinnatti

[dumpy]

good thing ur buddy didnt live in cincinnatti


or KC

[Crushaholic]

Must...resist...the urge....

See who you encourage, BritBronco?

[Pezman]

Just got back from Vegas... The latest odds at some of the bigger bookies out there had Denver between 15-24 to 1 odds for winning the Superbowl and in the same type of neighborhood for winning the AFC.

Naturally, the top three contenders to win this Superbowl were the Pats at around 5-2, Philly at 3-1 and the Colts at 6-1. Some of the big suprises were how low the Jags and Texans were ranged between 30-1 to 65-1. Not that I would purposly put down any signifigant jack on either of them, but you gotta admit, both those two teams have some real potential to do some suprising damage this year. And even if you only laid down a hundy on one of them, we are talking some serious moolah if it happens... Believe me, I was tempted!

Not suprisingly btw, the concensus was that San Fran and Tennessee will be dog meat this year. I saw one big board that had the Niners at 280-1. Cant say I blame em for that at all.

Oh yeah and one last thing... Slappy, fix the goddang airconditioning in that freaking city of yours bro. 109 degrees yesterday? Whack! Its no wonder no one is fat in that town. Everyone is constantly burning it all off

[BritBronco Maniac]

Sounds like 50/1 is a lot bigger than what you can get in Vegas anyway.
I think I will have a little dabble.

Message to Chefs fans, bringing in a big priced CB does not send you straight to the Superbowl, just look at Denver!

[Raiders Rock]

Damn, them suckers gave us better odds than the All Mighty Donckos with their Mastermind at Coach and the graceful Jacko Plumber under center?.... Hell I thought just with the addition of Rice alone, you all should be around 2-1 odds


RR

[Beantown Bronco]

How can the Broncos have basically the same odds as Washington? Washington is sure getting a lot of credit.

[Hotrod]

I laid down some $ at the Frontier at 18-1 the chefs were 15-1 and I forgot what the faid and chargers were at. Too many $2 margaritas ;D

[bloodsunday]

Now, will someone with a clear head please tell my why the odds are so big, and why the Chefs deserve to be shorter?
I'll give you two:
1) Betting is all about perception. The Chiefs are perceived to be only a defense away from winning it all. They signed/drafted enough players to make believers out of those that saw them through this light. Of course, the wise better knows that you could give the Chiefs homefield advantage throughout the playoffs and they'll lose the divisional game anyway. I'd save my money and bet on their opponent in round 1 of the playoffs. Nyah!

2) The Chiefs have one thing that Denver does not -- a dominant unit. It is kind of counter intuitive, but its better to have one dominant unit than a well balanced team sometimes. KC can count on 28 - 40 points a game from their offense and it puts them at a serious advantage. Sure, their defense will on occassion give up 45, but more often than not 30 pts wins in the NFL. Denver on the other hand, has no unit to hang their hat on. They are above average on offense and defense, but they can't count on either unit to dominate a game when it counts.

[NaptownChief]

Now, will someone with a clear head please tell my why the odds are so big, and why the Chefs deserve to be shorter?




Because the odds are put together by someone being objective and looking at reality versus a board full of homers that think everything Donkey has to be great. It is pretty simple.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

Because the odds are put together by someone being objective and looking at reality versus a board full of homers that think everything Donkey has to be great. It is pretty simple.

Actually that is not true. The odds are set using projected supply and demand for the bet so the lower the odds, the more money the book thinks will be bet on that team. Therefore the book thinks the Chiefs homers are more gulible than the Broncs homers.

[NaptownChief]

Actually that is not true. The odds are set using projected supply and demand for the bet so the lower the odds, the more money the book thinks will be bet on that team. Therefore the book thinks the Chiefs homers are more gulible than the Broncs homers.


It is based on projected supply and demand which is a direct result of what the masses believe to the quality of the team. What the consensus believes to be the best team will always have the smallest odds and the worst team the longest odds. There is small tweaks done to odds to protect the book against silly homer betting like Notre Dame football but the original odds are set close to realistic expectations.

[Billy Clyde Puckett]

It is based on projected supply and demand which is a direct result of what the masses believe to the quality of the team. What the consensus believes to be the best team will always have the smallest odds and the worst team the longest odds. There is small tweaks done to odds to protect the book against silly homer betting like Notre Dame football but the original odds are set close to realistic expectations.

Expectations of the betting volume - not expectations of the actual outcome.

[NaptownChief]

Expectations of the betting volume - not expectations of the actual outcome.



Not totally true...They set lines on many events that they expect little to zero volume yet they still come up with odds.


NE, Colts and Philly would be among the top favorites regardless if a single dollar came through the door.

[Atlas]

Damn, them suckers gave us better odds than the All Mighty Donckos with their Mastermind at Coach and the graceful Jacko Plumber under center?.... Hell I thought just with the addition of Rice alone, you all should be around 2-1 odds


RR

That might be the best post you ever made. I agree, Denver should have odds at around 2-1. I didn't know you were that smart you have obviously thought this through and now realize the Broncos are the best team in the league.. You did misspell "Broncos" but we understand. Oh yeah and it's "Jake" Plummer. Don't worry we know you are trying.

[Cito Pelon]

2) The Chiefs have one thing that Denver does not -- a dominant unit. Denver on the other hand, has no unit to hang their hat on. They are above average on offense and defense, but they can't count on either unit to dominate a game when it counts.

Good point. That was the story for last year, anyway. This year could be different. We'll see. On paper, the Broncs look not only well-balanced, but potentially more of a threat to score/prevent scores in all three phases.

[Atlas]

Good point. That was the story for last year, anyway. This year could be different. We'll see. On paper, the Broncs look not only well-balanced, but potentially more of a threat to score/prevent scores in all three phases.

Funny you say that because every preseason rag I read has Denver finishing 8-8 or 9-7. I just don't see it. Maybe I'm a homer but I see 10-6 with a good possibility for 11-5.

[Merlin]

Funny you say that because every preseason rag I read has Denver finishing 8-8 or 9-7. I just don't see it. Maybe I'm a homer but I see 10-6 with a good possibility for 11-5.
All of these predictions are to create readership and betting. No one in their right mind would bet on any team before preseason, and many of the above predictions were based on missing information. The savvy bettor will only engage after preseason to make sure no critical injuries occurred and to ensure that the new players are adding value.

Merlin

[Cito Pelon]

Funny you say that because every preseason rag I read has Denver finishing 8-8 or 9-7. I just don't see it. Maybe I'm a homer but I see 10-6 with a good possibility for 11-5.

8-8 is a possibility for the Broncs, as it is for a heck of a lot of teams. In fact, there's only about 4 teams that I would say are a lock to be over .500.

Denver could go 12-4, I can see that possibility also.

It doesn't get mentioned a lot (probably because it's so painful to think back on last year's coaching-staff dysfunctional breakdown), but Denver this year may have the best coaching staff they've had since 1998.

[-Slap-]

Oh yeah and one last thing... Slappy, fix the goddang airconditioning in that freaking city of yours bro. 109 degrees yesterday? Whack! Its no wonder no one is fat in that town. Everyone is constantly burning it all off

Spectacularly bad timing, PezMan. Tuesday (also the first day of Summer) was the hottest day of the year so far, by a pretty good margin, too. Yesterday we were overcast and had some thunder and lightning storms in the afternoon. In fact, I would say this has been the mildest weather I've ever seen for the month of June in Las Vegas and I've been here since 91.

Of course, July and August will still be a 60 day trip to hell. Nothing like ten straight days over 110 degrees to sap your will live.

[broncoblue]

Ok, every year I try to tell myself the Broncos are not going to win the Superbowl, DON'T BET ON THEM!

Yet every year I come to look at the odds and I think, those odds are just too big, surely its worth a bet.

This year I had convinced myself not to bet on them, but I thought I would just have a little peek at the odds, and to my shock they are 50/1!

Both the Chargers and the Chefs are shorter than them (both around 30/1)

Now, will someone with a clear head please tell my why the odds are so big, and why the Chefs deserve to be shorter?

Last time I checked Denver made the playoffs last season, have they really got worse since last year?
What have the Chefs done to get so much better?


WHICH BOOKIES ARE OFFERING 50'S???I GET PAID NEXT WEEK ,DEFO WORTH £50 OR A TON ON THEM PRICES. :thumbs: :griese:

[broncoblue]

WHICH BOOKIES ARE OFFERING 50'S???I GET PAID NEXT WEEK ,DEFO WORTH £50 OR A TON ON THEM PRICES. :thumbs: :griese:
IVE SEEN 33-1 AT LADDIES AND 28 AT BLUE SQUARE