Fantasy Football 2005 -- Who Ya Got?

[RhymesayersDU]

A couple of people were discussing Fantasy Football in another thread, who they picked last year, how they turned out, etc., so I thought this might be an interesting topic.

As it stands now, who would you draft on your team? Who do you think could be drafted low and have a break out season?

And the first person to seriously answer Jerry Rice gets rep from me. ;)

[BlitzingDog]

Take Tatum Bell.

[MajikMan7]

This is what I'd like to get realisticly.

QB: J.Plummer, C.Palmer
RB: J.Lewis, W.Mcgahee, J.Jones, R.Dayne
WR: R.Moss, C.Johnson, A.Lelie, L.Evans
TE: J.Shockey
DF: D.Broncos
K: M.Vanderjagt "Idoiot Kicker"

[RhymesayersDU]

Plummer, seriously?

I think he's going to be better this year, and I like him as our QB... But he's not a huge stats guy for FF.. I don't know if I'd pick him.

And yeah Blitzin', Tatum is going to do big things, and nobody outside of Dove Valley knows who he is yet.

[watermock]

Dunno.

I think Lelie might be cheap, I wouldn't bet a dime on TaterTot.

I think Denver's D will be in the top 5.

Jake will throw for alot of yards, but INT's hurt your stats. He's a top 15 or so.

I think the Putz might put it together in the red zone this year, he might be a decent TE pick.

I would handcuff Clarett to TaterTot if your going that way.

Muneer Moore might be a sleeper now that the Whizzinator has been put down. Handcuff him to Bennett.

[Beantown Bronco]

I tend to shy away from Broncos. Their defense is statistically good, but they're not a good fantasy defense. Not enough turnovers or sacks to rack up real fantasy points. I tend to jump on a team like Baltimore or New England a round early.

Tatum Bell is fairly high on most of the early ff forecasts I'm seeing. I don't think he's the "surprise pick" most around Denver would expect.

Kerry Collins has moved up a few rounds this year I'd imagine....

[RhymesayersDU]

I tend to shy away from Broncos. Their defense is statistically good, but they're not a good fantasy defense. Not enough turnovers or sacks to rack up real fantasy points. I tend to jump on a team like Baltimore or New England a round early.

Tatum Bell is fairly high on most of the early ff forecasts I'm seeing. I don't think he's the "surprise pick" most around Denver would expect.

Kerry Collins has moved up a few rounds this year I'd imagine....
Ooooh, I forgot about Collins.. yeah with Porter and Moss, it'd be impossible for him not to put up numbers.

And people know about Tatum? That surprises me considering he didn't play much last year... But good to hear he's getting press, he's gunna be good.

[bloodsunday]

Jake is a good late round QB for those that invest heavily in RB and WR. There is a pretty large drop off in QBs from the top 3 (Peyton, Culpepper, and McNabb). It depends on your scoring system as well. Culpepper and McNabb are better in leagues where you only get 4pts for a passing TD and 6pts for a rushing TD. If you get 6pts for a passing TD, then Peyton is a top 3 pick overall.

I am going to wait and see how the preseason goes before selecting a Denver RB. Even then, I won't count a Denver RB higher than my #2 back because they are just too unreliable as to who plays from week to week. Depending on how camp and preseason goes, I think that Big Mo could even be the starter by year end.

Denver's WR shouldn't be considered much more than the 3rd option for most teams (in 10 or 12 team leagues). They are good for the Broncos, but not very good in FFL. They are too unreliable when it comes to scoring TDs. If your league is deep (14 - 18 teams), then these guys are more reliable as starters.

I agree that Putz could be a decent late round TE.

Our defense is worthless in traditional FFL because they don't put up turnovers and sacks. If you get points for yards allowed, then Denver's D is probably a decent D.

[Pezman]

I threw together a top of my head list of this year's duds and studs that I suspect will be good and bad as follows...

RB's
Priest Holmes - Dud (Injury concerns?)
Steven Jackson - Stud (Ready to tear it up with better offensive line)
Julius Jones - Stud (If the O-line can stay healthy)
Clinton Portis - Dud (Still needs better offensive support)
Lamont Jordan - Dud (will be overshadows and underused because of Moss)
Chris Brown - Dud (Injuries plaguing him)
Ladanian Tomlinson - Stud (Peak form, only late season injuries keeping him from going off the hook)
Shaun Alexander - Stud (should be legit threat for 1800 yards and tons of tds)
Rudy Johnson - Dud (tough go last year, not quite an elite back, but still should be top 30 pick)
Tiki Barber - Stud (wont have as productive a year but still solid)
Domanick Davis - Stud (look for a big jump in draft position as he will be a top 10)

WR's
Randy Moss - Stud (Should be focal point in Raider offense)
Terrell Owens - Stud (Unhappy but still money)
Reggie Wayne - Stud (Not a sleeper anymore)
Michael Clayton - Stud (has a chance to shine again)
Joe Horn - Dud (age/injuries due to catch up with him)
Chad Johnson - Stud (could be a great year or a total flop depending on QB)
Marvin Harrison - Dud (fading, not enough looks to be elite anymore)
Darrell Jackson - Stud (Hasselbeck rebound the key)
Drew Bennett - Stud (screaming for a breakout campaign)
Eric Moulds - Dud (new QB, no thanks)
Santana Moss - Dud (lay an egg once, shame on you, draft you twice, shame on me)

More later... gotta get back to work hehe...

[MajikMan7]

Plummer, seriously?

I think he's going to be better this year, and I like him as our QB... But he's not a huge stats guy for FF.. I don't know if I'd pick him.

And yeah Blitzin', Tatum is going to do big things, and nobody outside of Dove Valley knows who he is yet.

I usually don't pick a QB until like round 6 or 7.

[MajikMan7]

I Santana Moss - Dud (lay an egg once, shame on you, draft you twice, shame on me)

Yeah. he was great for me two years ago when I picked him up as a free agent, but last year when I drafted him in the 4th round..... just horrible.

[yavoon]

This is what I'd like to get realisticly.

QB: J.Plummer, C.Palmer
RB: J.Lewis, W.Mcgahee, J.Jones, R.Dayne
WR: R.Moss, C.Johnson, A.Lelie, L.Evans
TE: J.Shockey
DF: D.Broncos
K: M.Vanderjagt "Idoiot Kicker"

I'm not sure how many ppl are in ur league. but mcgahee, moss and jamal are all very high picks. and johnson, lelie, jones are all right after them.

I'd be shocked if u could get all fo those guys.

[yavoon]

Jake is a good late round QB for those that invest heavily in RB and WR. There is a pretty large drop off in QBs from the top 3 (Peyton, Culpepper, and McNabb). It depends on your scoring system as well. Culpepper and McNabb are better in leagues where you only get 4pts for a passing TD and 6pts for a rushing TD. If you get 6pts for a passing TD, then Peyton is a top 3 pick overall.

I am going to wait and see how the preseason goes before selecting a Denver RB. Even then, I won't count a Denver RB higher than my #2 back because they are just too unreliable as to who plays from week to week. Depending on how camp and preseason goes, I think that Big Mo could even be the starter by year end.

Denver's WR shouldn't be considered much more than the 3rd option for most teams (in 10 or 12 team leagues). They are good for the Broncos, but not very good in FFL. They are too unreliable when it comes to scoring TDs. If your league is deep (14 - 18 teams), then these guys are more reliable as starters.

I agree that Putz could be a decent late round TE.

Our defense is worthless in traditional FFL because they don't put up turnovers and sacks. If you get points for yards allowed, then Denver's D is probably a decent D.

if u get 6 for a passing td peyton is #1 w/ a bullet.

[MajikMan7]

I'm not sure how many ppl are in ur league. but mcgahee, moss and jamal are all very high picks. and johnson, lelie, jones are all right after them.

I'd be shocked if u could get all fo those guys.

I play in a 12 person league. My roster last year looked like this.

QB: S.McNair, C.Pennington
RB: D. Mcalister, C.Dillon, T.Jones, Q.Griffen
WR:T.Holt, C.Johnson, A.Lelie, M.Clayton
TE: R.McMichael
DF: Denver
K: J.Wilkins

[i4jelway7]

I'm looking to join a new league this year if anyone has any suggestions, I'd prefer a pay league w/ a cash prize

[bloodsunday]

if u get 6 for a passing td peyton is #1 w/ a bullet.
He could be. I might still opt for an elite back because its a numbers game. If you have 10 teams and are forced to start 2 backs, that's 20 backs! There are not 20 FFL starting caliber backs in the NFL. With a flex position or more teams it can get even thinner. The one HUGE upside to Peyton is he never misses time. Having Petyon at 220 yds and two TDs beats watching Jamal Lewis miss 4 games with a sprained ankle.

[MajikMan7]

I'm looking to join a new league this year if anyone has any suggestions, I'd prefer a pay league w/ a cash prize

I really like playing at cbs sportsline they have a $40 league where the winner gets $200.

[i4jelway7]

I really like playing at cbs sportsline they have a $40 league where the winner gets $200.


yeah that's where I played last year, it was a private league though, winner got $300, 2nd got $200, and 3rd got $100... I finished 3rd

[MajikMan7]

yeah that's where I played last year, it was a private league though, winner got $300, 2nd got $200, and 3rd got $100... I finished 3rd

How much did that cost? I'm playing in a private money league this year and I might have a team in one of the OrangeMane leagues at yahoo.

[i4jelway7]

How much did that cost? I'm playing in a private money league this year and I might have a team in one of the OrangeMane leagues at yahoo.


each team was $60

I'd like to get in a private league again this year

[DrFate]

I worry about Bell and the Clarett factor. I think Clarett is a bum, but I don't know how many carries he might see.

Plummer isn't that good a fantasy guy unless he really cuts down on his INTs.

Putzier might be a fantasy option considering Winslow is out and Heap is still hurt.

[RhymesayersDU]

If you guys are looking for pay leagues, go to Rod Smith's website, rodsmith80.com ... I think he's doing a FF league with prizes and ****.. I don't know if you can get cash prizes, but they said they're going to make it really cool, so you never know, autographed stuff, good tickets, etc might be up for grabs.

[Rascal]

Some key things to watch this summer for fantasy regarding RB's:

Will Ricky Williams come back and have in impact with Miami. If not Ronnie Brown is a solid #3 RB.

Will Carnell Williams split time with Pittman in Tampa Bay? Pittman was a solid #3 RB last year, but if they split time both will suffer.

Will JJ Arrington establish himself as the #1 runner in Arizona and will their line improve with the addition of man boobs. E Smith was also a solid #3 RB and JJ should meet those numbers if he stays healthy and is the #1 runner.

Will Cedric Benson take over in Chicago and will the return of Grossman and the addition of Muhammaud make their offense better.

Is there going to be an o-line in Green Bay? Losing two of the elite guards in the game is going to kill Ahman Greens average.

Will Tiki Barber continue to have the support and confidence of Coughlin or will his carries be taken away and go back to his "Thunder and Lightning Days".

Is Kevin Barlow's heavy offseason workout be enough to keep Gore off the field? If Barlow struggles in the preseason Gore would be an excellent sleeper pick.

Will Travis Henry be traded? If a team loses their #1 RB in the preseason or camp (see Shipp from Arizona last year) he will obviously be of greater fantasy value.

Who to pick in Carolina. With a running based offensive scheme whoever is their RB will succeed...Nick Goings is a prime example. Do you think Davis or Foster stay healthy? If not taking a flyer on Shelton would be a good move.

Is Duece McAllister going to return to form after a disappointing year. The wanna be coach says yes, time will tell.

Is Tatum going to be the man in Denver. Shanny has shown that he won't stand fumbles, and with Tatum's history in college and limited NFL experience a flyer on Mike Anderson or Q will be advisable

Can Chris Brown stay healthy or is he a modern Fred Taylor. Both have potential to be solid #2's, but with health concerns may fall to #3 material.

Will Kevin Jones live up to his potential after a disappointing rookie year?

How many carries will Marshall Faulk steal from Stephen Jackson?

[RhymesayersDU]

How many carries will Marshall Faulk steal from Stephen Jackson?

I don't think many. I believe it's pretty much set that Jackson will be the starter this year, although I could be mistaken.


Oh, and I don't know if this is "news" per se, but Arizona named Warner the starter... I'm not big on him, but he's got good WR's, you never know.

[MileHighMania]

It's never too early to talk fantasy football. We have some 'tidbits' on the front page of our site and soon will be releasing regularly scheduled content. (all free ... "cheap plug")

Anyway, regarding Plummer ... he was a top 10-12 fantasy QB in a lot of leagues last year, despite the high INTs. He was top 10 in the two leagues that I played.

This year, RBs are plentiful! Potential early round RBs (rounds 3-4) are guys like Jackson, Bell, Martin, JJ Arrington, Benson, C Williams, R Brown, the Falcons' duo, Vikings' RBs and several others.

I really think McGahee, Julius Jones, Kevin Jones and D Davis are going to all finish in the Top 10 by seasons' end.

There are also several key receivers that can be picked in the 5th-7th rounds that could be #2 starters.

I think Muhsin has the "biggest bust" potential written all over him at this point, I think many will take him early hoping he can get near his 2004 numbers, but I think he'll struggle to break 1,000 yards unless the Bears get on track early.

I'm also leary of Derrick Mason and Curtis Martin... I am just not sold on Baltimore, even though they appear to be more balanced and they have Fassel running the offense. I think Boller sucks, but he could prove me wrong... Mason has #2 receiver talent, but I wouldn't draft him unless I already had 3 receivers.

Curtis Martin should do well, but he won't repeat the 2004 season and I don't think his production will justify being drafted prior to Round 3.

I think Carr and Palmer will bust loose in 2005. These are two QBs that will be drafted as #2 on many teams, likely rounds 7-10 and by week 4 they should be rolling.

[Rascal]

Not to mention Bettis/Staley, Dunn/Duckett, and Holmes/Johnson issues. Regarding Holmes: if you pick him in the first it would be advisable to strongly consider picking Johnson in the fifth.

Key backups to consider:

Derrick Blaylock (can C Martin keep it going).
Shelton (will Davis or Foster stay healthy)
Toefield (will Taylor stay healthy)
Chester Taylor (will Jamal return from jail and be a factor)
Ray Jackson (with Chris Brown looking fragile every day)

[RhymesayersDU]

I had Carr last year, and he did very well for me. I'd definately take him again, unless there was a clear-cut better QB available when I wanted to choose one.

[Rascal]

Forgot about Min. If you figure that one out and can some how tell Tice to leave things alone let me know. Although the wizzinator's team mate being out helps.

[Rascal]

This RB class for this year is very deep I have possibly 18 going by the end of round 2 in a 12 team league.

My top 24:
LT
Alexander
McGahee
Peyton
Holmes
James
Deuce
Portis
Jamal
Dillon
Green
Barber
Julius Jones
Owens
Moss
Kevin Jones
Culpepper
Davis
Rudi Johnson
Martin
Harrison
McNabb
Westbrook
Steven Jackson

3 QB's, 3 WR's, and 18 RB's.

[Rascal]

I might move Kevin Jones up. Detroit faces poor running defensive teams and their o-line should get better as the season progresses if the right tackle position can come together.

[Old Dude]

FWIW, Matt Pitzer (USA Today) has published his early rankings.

Top 10:

L. Tomlinson
P. Manning
S. Alexander
R. Moss
W. McGahee
P. Holmes
T. Owens
D. Culpepper
M. Harrison
A. Green

Plummer is ranked 13 among QBs.
No Bronco is in the top 10 TEs.
No Bronco is in the top 20 WRs.
No Bronco is in the top 20 RBs.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On a non-fantasy note:

PFW has the Broncos rated 13th overall in its power rankings, just ahead of Buffalo and KC, which are tied at 14. They predict the Broncos will have a winning season, but miss the playoffs. They aren't impressed with (in no particular order) Watts, the Red Zone Offense, Plummer's inconsistency, Bell's durability, the DL additions from the Browns, and a three-year pattern of falling into a mid-season slump.

What they do like: Elam, the LBs, Bailey and Pryce's restructured contract.

Top Ten Teams overall:

New England
Philadelphia
Pittsburgh
Atlanta
San Diego
Minnesota
Indianapolis
Baltimore
NY Jets
Carolina


Bottom Ten

New Orleans
Detroit
Tampa Bay
Miami
Chicago
Washington
NY Giants
Tennessee
Cleveland
San Francisco

[RhymesayersDU]

I don't buy San Diego, NY Jets, or Baltimore in the Top 10.

SD maybe, but they need to prove last year wasn't a fluke.

The Jets... I don't know, they've got talent, and hell, almost beat the Steelers in the playoffs... I don't know, still not sold.

And B-More... 2 words: kyle boller

[MileHighMania]

There are not 20 FFL starting caliber backs in the NFL. With a flex position or more teams it can get even thinner.

Golden Starters (#1 guys)
L Tomlinson
P Holmes (injury concern)
S Alexander
E James
T Barber
W McGahee
C Dillon
J Lewis
R Johnson
D McAllister
C Portis
A Green

I think these 12 guys are the consensus #1 guys (for the most part) in just about any fantasy league.

On the verge of greatness (strong #2 starters)
K Jones
J Jones
D Davis
C Martin
C Brown (if healthy)

These are 5 guys that should do incredibly well this season. So, I think without question you have 17 solid options for your 1-2 punch.

Great potential - either unknowns or RBBC issues
L Jordan
B Westbrook
S Jackson (Faulk)
T Bell (take your pick at the options)
R Brown (Ricky or other)
JJ Arrington (Shipp)
C Benson (T Jones)
C Williams (Pittman)
W Dunn (Duckett)
M Bennett (lots of other options)
F Taylor (Toefield, etc)
D Foster (Davis, rookie)
D Staley (Bettis)

Right here you have 11 scenarios that are very cloudy. The guys in this mix will likely fall (R3-6) in most drafts and if any of them step up and take the lead role, these are the guys that can really make or break a fantasy team. Drafting any of these guys as your #2 is risky, but their potential as your #3 guy is huge.

I think of that last group, you have 4-5 guys that will become legit #2 fantasy starters on a consistent basis - Jordan, Jackson, Bell and Benson should be near locks. If Foster is healthy, he should do well.

The problem is - if you figure that these 30 RBs will be selected prior to R5, you're potentially sacrificing other positional depth to get 3 of the top 30. However, I think if you take the right calculated risks, you can get a top 7 QB, top 7 WR and 3 of the top 30 RBs prior to R5 and still find nice #2-#3 starting receiver talent from rounds 6-8.

It's just all about what does your league's scoring system value more.

[Rascal]

And I might move James down as I think losing Demulling will hurt. I think Peyton will be able to mask their weaknesses for passing, but not as much rushing. I think Peyton will have more pressure this year and the running game will not be as strong this year.

To freaking bad Fragile Taylor can't stay healthy. That Jags offensive line is awesome.

And I think whoever runs in SF will have a better line then last year so they should do moderately better unless they split carries. I have no confidence in Barlow and wouldn't object to taking Gore in the 6th round in a 12 team league.

[Rascal]

Mania, you forgot to include Rudi Johnson and Westbrook and Dunn/Duckett.

[MileHighMania]

And I might move James down as I think losing Demulling will hurt. I think Peyton will be able to mask their weaknesses for passing, but not as much rushing. I think Peyton will have more pressure this year and the running game will not be as strong this year.

To freaking bad Fragile Taylor can't stay healthy. That Jags offensive line is awesome.

And I think whoever runs in SF will have a better line then last year so they should do moderately better unless they split carries. I have no confidence in Barlow and wouldn't object to taking Gore in the 6th round in a 12 team league.

It does suck about Taylor... I'm curious to see how Toefield does, if he becomes the starter. Also - the 49er duo you reference should both be there after R6. I just can't imagine drafting any 49er really at all this year until I had each of my starters filled out, so that would push me to Rounds 7 or 8, hell maybe 9. I claimed that Barlow would be the most overhyped bust in 2004 and he proved it. I just wouldn't take him or Gore at this point unless they were my #4 or #5 RB.

[MileHighMania]

Mania, you forgot to include Rudi Johnson and Westbrook and Dunn/Duckett.

:alky:

Nice catch - I reference 2 of the 3 in the previous post and was just typing too quickly to catch the ommissions. thanks

[Rascal]

I think Barlow will be taken in round 5 by whoever selected Culpepper or Manning in the first. Even if a poor #3 RB, with all the injuries in the season that #3 RB could prove extremely valuable.

[Rascal]

Also, forgot to mention that I'm talking about leagues where you start 2 RB's, 2 WR's and a flex (WR or RB).

[MileHighMania]

I think Barlow will be taken in round 5 by whoever selected Culpepper or Manning in the first. Even if a poor #3 RB, with all the injuries in the season that #3 RB could prove extremely valuable.

It's very likely.

Owners that take a QB or WR in R1 or R2 will be reaching potentially for that consistent #2 RB and will definitely reach for that #3.

Outside of possibly Manning (depending on where I picked in R1), I would stick with the RB/RB picks the first two rounds. Your team dies fast if the RB depth is poor.

[Rascal]

I agree with that.

What would you do in round three if you were in this situation:
You picked two RB's as your first two picks. In the third you find that one or two of L Jordan, B Westbrook, S Jackson, T Bell, R Brown, JJ Arrington are remaining on the board (been a big run on RB's). Do you take them or pray they are available in round 4.

I think I would be forced to take them and take the best WR available in round 4 and 5 and best QB in round 6.

[MileHighMania]

I agree with that.

What would you do in round three if you were in this situation:
You picked two RB's as your first two picks. In the third you find that one or two of L Jordan, B Westbrook, S Jackson, T Bell, R Brown, JJ Arrington are remaining on the board (been a big run on RB's). Do you take them or pray they are available in round 4.

I think I would be forced to take them and take the best WR available in round 4 and 5 and best QB in round 6.

Great scenario and will surely happen to an owner or two in each draft.

Honestly, it would depend on which WR or QB was still on the board and where I pick in R3 and in R4.

I have two RBs and will assume the following are gone:
RBs: Tomlinson/Holmes/Barber/Edge/McGahee/R Johnson/Alexander/Green/Portis/Dillon/Lewis/J Jones/K Jones/D Davis/C Martin/McGahee/McAllister/C Brown(if healthy)
QBs: Manning/Culpepper/McNabb/
WRs: TO/Moss/Holt/Harrison

I think these are the most likely top 25 selected as of right now. So, in a 12 team league that would take you through the first pick of R3.

So, if I have a pick through #2 and #5 in Round 3 (26th-29th overall) and I have 2 stud RBs with guys like ... Walker, Wayne, Horn, C Johnson and 1 or 2 others sitting there... of the guys you suggested, I would likely go WR at this point. Jordan is the only guy (from what you mentioned) that has a real lock on the position, so with that risk - I wouldn't take any of those RBs if any of the 4 receivers I named are there and I still need a #1 receiver.

Plus, if my R4 pick is middle to late in the round and I wait until the 40th or 43rd overall pick to get my first receiver... I'm looking at maybe the 10th-12th best overall receiver as my #1 guy.

So, if I have a nice 1-2 punch at RB with your scenario and using my top 25 listed, I'd go WR. Depth at RB is one of (if not the most) critical factor in fantasy football, but I wouldn't sacrifice starters at other positions early in the draft for a #3 RB.

Plus, every season there are 4-5 RBs that break loose in the first month that are available via the waiver wire or trade. A stud gets injured and his backup shines, someone breaks free from a RBBC, an rookie flies up from under the radar...

[MileHighMania]

The main key in fantasy football is not wasting your first 3-4 selections... and with that in mind, I don't want a RB as my #2 if he is not the clear cut every down RB. So, I would avoid any and all RBBC options as one of my top two RB selections.

[Rascal]

What if you pick 9th overall and your subsequent fourth round pick is number 39th overall. I'm guessing it depends on what WR's are available in the third round when you select 33rd. If I pick 9th or later overall I would be more apt to consider picking another RB because I can still get a top WR with my fourth rounder.

I agree with Jordan being the only true lock at that position unless things change in preseason when somebody gets injured.

Changing topics a bit. Which online source do you consider the best for analysis, cheat sheats, etc?

[MileHighMania]

What if you pick 9th overall and your subsequent fourth round pick is number 39th overall. I'm guessing it depends on what WR's are available in the third round when you select 33rd. If I pick 9th or later overall I would be more apt to consider picking another RB because I can still get a top WR with my fourth rounder.

I agree with Jordan being the only true lock at that position unless things change in preseason when somebody gets injured.

Changing topics a bit. Which online source do you consider the best for analysis, cheat sheats, etc?

That early in the draft, it would really have to be a hell of a scenario for me to go RB/RB/RB...

Regarding your final question, I'm hoping that www.pigskinsanity.com will get a lot closer to our goal of being one of the better online sources for fantasy information in Year 2 (this season). :angel: I think our predraft lists/rankings/etc and regular season content will be much improved from 2004.

Aside from my own backyard ... :hitself: ... I would say that Footballguys and FantasyAsylum (appears to be Fantasyfootball.com now) are among the two best, but they are pay sites.

There's lots of things I like and dislike about many of the sites that have been around for years. Some sites, simply flood you with way too much information. I'm hoping that eventually, we'll find a healthy balance with PIGSKINSANITY. Oh - and I play in CBS.Sportsline leagues and they typically have some good information.

[TheManeMan]

I got this email from draftsharks.com...Early Player Rankings for 2005...check it out...

Draft Sharks
May 26, 2005
Sneak Peek 2005 Player Rankings
*****************************

A few quick items for you today…

** If you’re a mom or dad, please take your kids to a Memorial Day service this
weekend to teach them that freedom is not free…

** As we bang out the player profiles and projections (which will “go live” on
the Draft Sharks web site on June 19), we wanted to give you a sneak peek at how
the rankings are shaping up. Bear in mind that these will change a bit as we
dig deeper into each player, and as the summer goes along. We omitted any
rookie RBs from the top-20 as of now, though that will likely change.

QBs:
1. Peyton Manning
2. Donovan McNabb
3. Daunte Culpepper
4. Trent Green
5. Kerry Collins
6. Jake Plummer
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Carson Palmer
9. Marc Bulger
10. Jake Delhomme

RBs:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Deuce McAllister
3. Kevin Jones
4. Shaun Alexander
5. Clinton Portis
6. Domanick Davis
7. Edgerrin James
8. Priest Holmes
9. Rudi Johnson
10. Willis McGahee
11. LaMont Jordan
12. Tiki Barber
13. Corey Dillon
14. Curtis Martin
15. Julius Jones
16. Brian Westbrook
17. Ahman Green
18. Jamal Lewis
19. Steven Jackson
20. Tatum Bell

WRs:
1. Terrell Owens
2. Torry Holt
3. Randy Moss
4. Chad Johnson
5. Javon Walker
6. Marvin Harrison
7. Andre Johnson
8. Joe Horn
9. Hines Ward
10. Darrell Jackson
11. Reggie Wayne
12. Michael Clayton
13. Nate Burleson
14. Steve Smith
15. Roy Williams
16. Jerry Porter
17. Derrick Mason
18. Lee Evans
19. Deion Branch
20. Ashley Lelie
21. Muhsin Muhammad
22. Laveranues Coles
23. Eddie Kennison
24. Larry Fitzgerald
25. Drew Bennett
26. Donald Driver
27. Isaac Bruce
28. Jimmy Smith
29. Brandon Stokley
30. Santana Moss

TEs:

1. Antonio Gates
2. Tony Gonzalez
3. Alge Crumpler
5. Jason Witten
6. Todd Heap
4. L.J. Smith
7. Jeremy Shockey
8. Dallas Clark
9. Heath Miller
10. Jermaine Wiggins

Ks:
1. Adam Vinatieri
2. Josh Brown
3. Jason Elam
4. Mike Vanderjagt
5. Shayne Graham
6. Jason Hanson
7. David Akers
8. Jeff Reed
9. Mike Nugent
10. Lawrence Tynes

Ds:
1. Baltimore
2. Atlanta
3. Philadelphia
4. Pittsburgh
5. New England
6. Buffalo
7. Cincinnati
8. Chicago
9. Minnesota
10. Arizona

***********************

** By sheer luck, I happened to sit next to ABC college football analyst (and
former Auburn coach) Terry Bowden on a flight to Orlando, Florida last week.
(He was headed home, and the Pappano family was headed to Disney World!). We
chatted for quite a while, and I asked him his take on Ronnie Brown vs. Carnell
Williams. He said that Brown was the safer pick, and that he had all the
physical tools to succeed in the NFL. He also said that Williams had more
upside, comparing his running style somewhat to Barry Sanders. Let it also be
noted that Bowden was a regular guy. He sat in coach and let my 3 year old
daughter, Noelle, bother him.

** In a few years, it will be interesting to go back and look at the NFL careers
of WR Matt Jones (Jaguars) and WR Mark Clayton (Ravens). Jones was the guy
flying up everybody’s draft board because of his tremendous size and athletic
ability. Clayton isn’t very big, but is one of the most polished players in
this year’s rookie class. Jones went to Jacksonville with the 21st pick, and
Clayton was the very next player taken. My money is on Clayton.

** The Star Tribune reported last week that Vikings RB Onterrio Smith was
excused indefinitely from mini-camp because of a league matter. Coach Mike Tice
said, "I really can't speak about any reasons why, or when he'll be back. “It's
in the league's hands, and we'll leave it at that." Smith, a two-time offender
of the NFL's substance abuse policy, was detained April 21 at Minneapolis-St.
Paul Airport with a prosthetic penis and vials of powdered urine designed to
beat drug tests. Meanwhile, WCCO-TV's website reports the NFL has suspended
Onterrio for a full year. If this is true, it means the NFL's investigation
qualified this "Whizzinator" issue as an actual 3rd offense in the league drug
policy. Michael Bennett’s fantasy stock would surge in this case. Mewelde Moore
and/or rookie Ciatrick Fason would also earn hard looks as fantasy reserves
because of Bennett’s lengthy injury history.

** Here is a one-time offer for folks who have not subscribed yet for this
season – the “Onterrio Smith Special.” Subscribe to Draft Sharks in the next 24
hours, and you’ll be eligible for our random drawing of a free “Original
Whizzinator” complete with dry urine and a prosthetic penis (according to the
Whizzinator web site, you have your choice of White, Tan, Latino, Brown or
Black). Guys – can you really live without one? If you’re a white dude,
imagine ordering the “black” Whizzintor kit and making sure that your co-workers
see you in the men’s room as you urinate. Won’t that be the topic of discussion
at lunch for the next month?! And ladies – this makes the perfect Father’s Day
gift. All you have to do to be eligible for your own free Whizzinator is to
subscribe to Draft Sharks today. Go to draftsharks.com or click on the link
below. Thanks – and that’s all for today

[MileHighMania]

QBs:
1. Peyton Manning
2. Donovan McNabb
3. Daunte Culpepper
4. Trent Green
5. Kerry Collins
6. Jake Plummer
7. Matt Hasselbeck
8. Carson Palmer
9. Marc Bulger
10. Jake Delhomme

Just an observation, but I think Plummer, Hasselbeck, Palmer and Delhomme are kinda high for top 10 this early in the offseason. Lots of questions with each, especially Delhome with Smith coming back from injury, Colbert in year 2 and the questions that are still out there at RB. I really think Palmer could be huge this year, so I think he'll hover around that top 10 mark.

The top 3 are going to be the guys listed above in most every ranking... 4-10 will be interesting to see how various folks rank them.

RBs:
1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Deuce McAllister
3. Kevin Jones
4. Shaun Alexander
5. Clinton Portis
6. Domanick Davis
7. Edgerrin James
8. Priest Holmes
9. Rudi Johnson
10. Willis McGahee
11. LaMont Jordan
12. Tiki Barber
13. Corey Dillon
14. Curtis Martin
15. Julius Jones
16. Brian Westbrook
17. Ahman Green
18. Jamal Lewis
19. Steven Jackson
20. Tatum Bell


McAllister and K Jones are really kinda high on the list for right now, IMO.
Barber after LaMont Jordan? Not sure I would go there... same with Westbrook and Martin being ahead of Green and Lewis.

It is early, so everyone's list will change a dozen or more times.

[Rascal]

I disagree with their RB ratings big time.

McGahee 10th, Jamal 18th, Kevin Jones 3rd???

Those guys are on crack.

[Rich Karlis]

18. Lee Evans

He kind of scares me a little this year. I loved what he did last year but now hes got Losman. Who knows what Losman is gonna do as the starter.

14. Steve Smith

I would love to grab this guy after 13 WRs have been taken. The Panthers cant be the IR All Stars 2 years in a row, can they? If he didnt get hurt last year he would have had Muhammads' numbers.

[Rascal]

Hoping Steve Smith slips past a lot of people and I'm still not sure about Burleson being worthy of such a high ranking but preseason will tell a lot.

[MileHighMania]

14. Steve Smith

I would love to grab this guy after 13 WRs have been taken. The Panthers cant be the IR All Stars 2 years in a row, can they? If he didnt get hurt last year he would have had Muhammads' numbers.

Possibly, but the question is can he do it with only Colbert really being the other option? I love his potential as well as Colbert, but I have to see how the offseason and preseason games go with just about any Carolina player right now - they are a big unknown.

[MileHighMania]

Hoping Steve Smith slips past a lot of people and I'm still not sure about Burleson being worthy of such a high ranking but preseason will tell a lot.

I don't have my list in front of me, but IIRC, Burleson is a 3rd year player this season and even though Moss is gone... I think their offense will still be a nice vertical attack and I really think Nate will do well. There will be some bumps early, but by October he should be well in synch.

[Rascal]

My top 10 QB's:

Manning
Culpepper
McNabb
Green
Bulger
Farve
Vick
Hasselbeck
Plummer
Collins

[Beantown Bronco]

I'd put David Carr in the top 8-10

[Rascal]

Good call Bean I forgot about him. But I'm not sure he is top 10 material though. Either way though, if I'm not picking one of the top three I'm picking my second QB by round 9.

[MileHighMania]

I think Carr and Palmer are great options if you wait until round 5 or 6 for you QB.

[TheManeMan]

Yeah I know those rankings are a little bogus MHM...I just wanted to share since it was in my email box...There is NO WAY i'd take Kevin Jones over guys like Alexander, Edge, or Priest...You're right its still a little too early to put out draft cheat sheets and these guys are sure to switch things up by the time Draft Season comes around...

[Beantown Bronco]

I would rather either of them around 5 or 6 rather than taking Favre in an earlier round. I can see him really taking a nosedive this season, unless they come up with some good replacements on the Oline. If not, their running game won't be as big a threat so teams can have their DBs stay back. Not only that, but it'll be interesting to see if Favre and Walker can work out their "differences". There's definitely trouble brewing in Packer land.

[Rich Karlis]

I would rather either of them around 5 or 6 rather than taking Favre in an earlier round. I can see him really taking a nosedive this season, unless they come up with some good replacements on the Oline. If not, their running game won't be as big a threat so teams can have their DBs stay back. Not only that, but it'll be interesting to see if Favre and Walker can work out their "differences". There's definitely trouble brewing in Packer land.

All the signs are pointing toward trouble in Cheeseland, but its preety hard to bet against Favre.

[-Slap-]

Possibly, but the question is can he do it with only Colbert really being the other option? I love his potential as well as Colbert, but I have to see how the offseason and preseason games go with just about any Carolina player right now - they are a big unknown.

I don't see why Carolina is an unknown. Delhomme is established. The offensive line is over the turmoil of changing over four of five starters last season. They have two solid backs. Smith and Colbert will form one of the best WR tandems in the league. I plan to grab Colbert late in every league.

[MileHighMania]

I don't see why Carolina is an unknown. Delhomme is established. The offensive line is over the turmoil of changing over four of five starters last season. They have two solid backs. Smith and Colbert will form one of the best WR tandems in the league. I plan to grab Colbert late in every league.

I say they're an uknown simply because we don't know what Smith can do as the #1 and you have to note he is coming off a nasty injury. Also, Colbert is entering his 2nd season and will be #2 to a guy he hasn't played with much. Muhsin was a rock of stability last season.

The RBs... yes, if healthy Davis and Foster are solid... two big words there "if healthy". I'm not 100% confident in how it's going to shake out.

Yes, Delhome has proven he can be a solid fantasy QB, but right now there are lots of questions with that team, IMO.

[MajikMan7]

Not only that, but it'll be interesting to see if Favre and Walker can work out their "differences". There's definitely trouble brewing in Packer land.

There is some big problems brewing up here. I think Favre needs to mind his own business. Walker is just doing whats best for his life right now. Favre isn't working for the veterns minimum is he? I didn't think so.

[yavoon]

I play in a 12 person league. My roster last year looked like this.

QB: S.McNair, C.Pennington
RB: D. Mcalister, C.Dillon, T.Jones, Q.Griffen
WR:T.Holt, C.Johnson, A.Lelie, M.Clayton
TE: R.McMichael
DF: Denver
K: J.Wilkins

thats not as good a roster as ur asking for this year. lots of ppl are VERY high on mcgahee, top 5 high. then u want bill parcells #1 stud, then u want the #1 receiver? I dont know=[. good luck w/ it tho.

[-Slap-]

I say they're an uknown simply because we don't know what Smith can do as the #1 and you have to note he is coming off a nasty injury. Also, Colbert is entering his 2nd season and will be #2 to a guy he hasn't played with much. Muhsin was a rock of stability last season.

The RBs... yes, if healthy Davis and Foster are solid... two big words there "if healthy". I'm not 100% confident in how it's going to shake out.

Yes, Delhome has proven he can be a solid fantasy QB, but right now there are lots of questions with that team, IMO.

I guess its fair to say they have a lot of questions, but they're also loaded with talent. They took three years worth of bad luck in September of last season and a healthy Steve Smith and Kris Jenkins are going to make a huge difference this year.

[Rascal]

Can somebody neg rep Project86 for me. The little ****er neg repped me saying something about Majowski and 89.

Positive rep to all those that do.

[Szarka33]

I play in a 12 person league. My roster last year looked like this.

QB: S.McNair, C.Pennington
RB: D. Mcalister, C.Dillon, T.Jones, Q.Griffen
WR:T.Holt, C.Johnson, A.Lelie, M.Clayton
TE: R.McMichael
DF: Denver
K: J.Wilkins
Here are my 2 teams KEEPER LEAGUES

TEAM #1

QB Jake Plummer
RB Jamal Lewis
RB Steven Jackson
WR Joe Horn
WR Darrell Jackson
TE Todd Heap
PK Ryan Longwell
DEF Dallas
EXTRA Tatum Bell

TEAM #2

QB Carson Palmer
RB Willis McGahee
RB Clinton Portis
WR Marvin Harrison
WR Andre Johnson
TE Jeb Putzier (I have Winslow, but screw him now)
PK Shayne Graham
DEF Chiefs (look good on paper)
EXTRA Kevin Jones
EXTRA Julius Jones

[Crow]

Ahhh. 66 posts and no one has mentioned either of my "super sleeper" RBs. Love it.

[-Slap-]

Ahhh. 66 posts and no one has mentioned either of my "super sleeper" RBs. Love it.

Nick Bell and Huggy Bear's kid?

[Crow]

Hahaha, negative.


Screw it. I'm not in any Mane leagues. As your draft winds down, remember these two names: Vernand Morency and Ciatrick Fason.

Dom Davis is bound to get hurt at some point. I look for Morency to come in and make some waves.

In Minnesota, everyone knows that Bennett is garbage. Whiz is done. I love me some Moe Williams, but they won't start him. Same goes for Mewelde Moore. I think Fason closes the season as the Vikes most productive RB.


As for Huggy's kid, that dude is crap.I hated the pick when it was made. I laughed at the people who drafted him in fantasy leagues, and I still laugh at people foolish enough to think he'll ever be more than an injury and fumble prone son of an actor.

[-Slap-]

Hahaha, negative.


Screw it. I'm not in any Mane leagues. As your draft winds down, remember these two names: Vernand Morency and Ciatrick Fason.

Dom Davis is bound to get hurt at some point. I look for Morency to come in and make some waves.

In Minnesota, everyone knows that Bennett is garbage. Whiz is done. I love me some Moe Williams, but they won't start him. Same goes for Mewelde Moore. I think Fason closes the season as the Vikes most productive RB.


As for Huggy's kid, that dude is crap.I hated the pick when it was made. I laughed at the people who drafted him in fantasy leagues, and I still laugh at people foolish enough to think he'll ever be more than an injury and fumble prone son of an actor.

About a dozen years ago I was rehabbing a blown ACL and I had Nick Bell in a couple pilates sessions with me. It was so funny to see this guy, who was sculpted like a Greek god, whining about a very easy low impact exersize routine. He seemed to be less concerned about a football career than Ricky Williams. Kind of amazing to see these naturally gifted guys who simply don't care.

[rbackfactory80]

A couple of people were discussing Fantasy Football in another thread, who they picked last year, how they turned out, etc., so I thought this might be an interesting topic.

As it stands now, who would you draft on your team? Who do you think could be drafted low and have a break out season?

And the first person to seriously answer Jerry Rice gets rep from me. ;)

All I am going to say is that if I did not have Peyton last year I would have been terrible. He alone carried me to win many games and if I can get him first I would. Obviously Antonio Gates was huge last year, I wouldn't mind having him. Julius Jones will have a big stat year. Wr Moss K Elam and for defense/ special teams you have to like the ravens and ed reed, hands down best safety in the game. No homer picks here.

[Arkie]

To freaking bad Fragile Taylor can't stay healthy. That Jags offensive line is awesome.


Did you know that Fred Taylor is the best running back to never make a Pro Bowl? Taylor is #35 on the list of top running backs (rushing yards). Everybody else in the top 50 have made the Pro Bowl. I just thought that was a little interesting. He's not that great of a fantasy back because he doesn't score very often, and he's easily injured. I think he may have an injury right now.

Jim Brown was asked who he thought was the best running back of today. His response--Fred Taylor.

I've been concentrating on running backs in my keeper league because I'm set at WR. Here's my top 25:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Priest Holmes
3. Willis McGahee
4. Shaun Alexander
5. Domanick Davis
6. Kevin Jones
7. Edgerrin James
8. Corey Dillon
9. Julius Jones
10. Deuce McAllister
11. Jamal Lewis
12. Steven Jackson
13. Tatum Bell
14. Brian Westbrook
15. Tiki Barber
16. Ahman Green
17. Cedric Benson
18. Cadillac Williams
19. Curtis Martin
20. Clinton Portis
21. Fred Taylor
22. Ronnie Brown
23. LaMont Jordan
24. DeShaun Foster
25. JJ Arrington

[Rascal]

Did you know that Fred Taylor is the best running back to never make a Pro Bowl? Taylor is #35 on the list of top running backs (rushing yards). Everybody else in the top 50 have made the Pro Bowl. I just thought that was a little interesting. He's not that great of a fantasy back because he doesn't score very often, and he's easily injured. I think he may have an injury right now.

Jim Brown was asked who he thought was the best running back of today. His response--Fred Taylor.

I've been concentrating on running backs in my keeper league because I'm set at WR. Here's my top 25:

1. LaDainian Tomlinson
2. Priest Holmes
3. Willis McGahee
4. Shaun Alexander
5. Domanick Davis
6. Kevin Jones
7. Edgerrin James
8. Corey Dillon
9. Julius Jones
10. Deuce McAllister
11. Jamal Lewis
12. Steven Jackson
13. Tatum Bell
14. Brian Westbrook
15. Tiki Barber
16. Ahman Green
17. Cedric Benson
18. Cadillac Williams
19. Curtis Martin
20. Clinton Portis
21. Fred Taylor
22. Ronnie Brown
23. LaMont Jordan
24. DeShaun Foster
25. JJ Arrington

I didn't know all that. Interesting stuff. Taylor does have incredible talent, it's just to bad he is made of glass. And yes he is injured right now.

If you are doing a keeper league I would have Priest and Martin ranked lower then that. And it's interesting that you didn't include Rudi Johnson or Chris Brown.

[Crow]

About a dozen years ago I was rehabbing a blown ACL and I had Nick Bell in a couple pilates sessions with me. It was so funny to see this guy, who was sculpted like a Greek god, whining about a very easy low impact exersize routine. He seemed to be less concerned about a football career than Ricky Williams. Kind of amazing to see these naturally gifted guys who simply don't care.

I've had friends like that. Seems like mother nature just handed them everything. But if you've always had it, I guess you're just used to it. The cats that have to work twice as hard just to be half as good...those are the ones that make a team. Prime example: Those rat bastard Patriots.

[toad]

This year's fantasy drafts are going to be interesting.

I come from the "old school" where there's typically not much depth at RB but QBs are a dime a dozen. Come this season, however, there appears to be great depth at RB and Manning, McNabb, and Culpepper showed us last year that there is a huge drop-off in QB talent after they're gone.

Typically, in my league, we've had as many as 10 RBs selected in the first round (12 teams) but I have a feeling its going to get shaken up this year. Typically the first 6-7 picks are RBs then you'll see Moss or TO spring up anywhere from #7 on. This year, though, you almost have to look at Manning as early as #3 or #4.

For me, LT and Alexander are the obvious first 2 picks, with Priest or Edge being #3. But what do you do if you're sitting at the #4 or #5 pick? Do you take Manning hoping he'll throw at least 35 TDs, then try to land a solid RB like Julius Jones in the 2nd (with the hopes of landing a decent WR like Ward or C. Johnson in the 3rd or 4th)? Or do you take Edge or McGahee and hope to land Culpepper or McNabb in the second (but run the "risk" of getting someone like Brady, Favre, or Delhomme later in the draft)?

I just don't know. I hate to take a QB in the first, especially as early as #4, but I think you have to give Manning a look that early. In my league the passing TDs are worth 6 and the top SIX scorers in our league last year were QBs.

So many draft questions...

[Beantown Bronco]

If passing TDs are worth 6 points in your league, you are a moron if you don't pick Manning #1 overall.....IMO

[ozomulsion]

Did you know that Fred Taylor is the best running back to never make a Pro Bowl? Taylor is #35 on the list of top running backs (rushing yards). Everybody else in the top 50 have made the Pro Bowl. I just thought that was a little interesting. He's not that great of a fantasy back because he doesn't score very often, and he's easily injured. I think he may have an injury right now.

Jim Brown was asked who he thought was the best running back of today. His response--Fred Taylor.


Yeah, it's really too bad Taylor doesn't get the credit he deserves. Most folks would never guess he started 46 consecutive games dating back to week 15 last season. Running backs made of glass don't start that many games in a row. It just doesn't happen.

[MileHighMania]

Fason has a great chance to shine, but the fact is that unless somebody stands up and takes that lead role early... they're staring at RBBC more often than not. If they're all healthy, then they'll all play at some point in time. Question is who will get the yards and who will get the TDs? Vikings and Falcons' RBs are damn frustrating...

Regarding Manning and the #1 overall pick, it really just depends. If you are first in a 12 team draft and you pick 1st and 24th... you're looking at Manning and then likely the 18th best RB as your #1 guy. It all depends on your league and the quality of owners in that league. But, I'd rather have a top 5 RB and then grap a top 5-7 QB as my starter.

The thing is ... drafting Manning first overall is not a bad idea if you're smart about your RBs and you pay attention early and work the FA wire aggressively during the first month. There are always 4-5 RBs that stand out in early October that were low picks (or undrafted) in fantasy. It's all about the homework.

I think it's a bit of "wishful" thinking to believe Manning can duplicate his 2004 production, and unless he does then I think you're better off taking a guy like Tomlinson at #1 and then grabbing a guy like Brady, Carr, Green or a handful of others in R3-5.

I'd rather have Green as my QB and Tomlinson as my #1 RB than a combo of Manning as my QB and a RB like Westbrook, Martin or S Jackson. Yes, the potential for a Manning - Jackson is great, but the fact is Jackson and several others in that 18th overall RB range are questionable right now.

I would rather go the "known commodity" route than risk my early picks on potential.

[Crow]

Anyone have any theories as to why Rudi Johnson isn't getting much pub as a #1 fantasy back? He had a great year last year and should easily match those #s this year.

[MileHighMania]

I think Rudi Johnson is a 'consensus' top 10 pick in most every fantasy ranking you might find... I listed him as a golden starter previously in this thread and doubt you'll find many that don't think he is a #1 fantasy starter. In a 12 team draft, he's a lock for R1.

[Crow]

I think Rudi Johnson is a 'consensus' top 10 pick in most every fantasy ranking you might find... I listed him as a golden starter previously in this thread and doubt you'll find many that don't think he is a #1 fantasy starter. In a 12 team draft, he's a lock for R1.

I agree, but I've done a half dozen mocks at AntSports so far this year (All but 1 being 12 team leagues) and he hasn't gone in Rd1 in any of them. Seems strange to me, especially with guys like Dom Davis going ahead of him. I like Davis, but he's a little brittle for a 1st round pick, IMO.

[MileHighMania]

I agree, but it's early and if healthy D Davis could be a Tiki-like dual threat in fantasy, so I understand why his value is high. I think Rudi may still suffer from the mystique of being a Bengal. All that should change soon. I think if you check out those mocks in late June, you'll see Rudi as a R1 pick more often than not. If he falls in your league, that's a hell of a R2 pick.

[Rascal]

So how early to do you think someone should pick manning, culpepper, and McNabb?

If I'm sitting #6 in a 12 team league and manning is there I think I have to take him. If culpepper is there in the mid second and I have a stud RB and there hasn't been a huge run on RB's I think I would take him. If McNabb is available at the end of the second and the same applies I would do it.

[MileHighMania]

So how early to do you think someone should pick manning, culpepper, and McNabb?

If I'm sitting #6 in a 12 team league and Manning is there I think I have to take him. If culpepper is there in the mid second and I have a stud RB and there hasn't been a huge run on RB's I think I would take him. If McNabb is available at the end of the second and the same applies I would do it.

#6 overall...

Tomlinson, Holmes, Alexander are looking to be the top 3 picks overall in most leagues. Then, you have the guy at #4 looking at Manning vs the likes of proven studs from the past in McAllister, Portis, James, Green, Lewis, Tiki and Dillon. Can Portis and Deuce rebound? Will Edge keep pace on yardage and more shots at the end zone? How will Lewis respond after this past offseason? Will Tiki and Dillon continue to impress?

As well, you have potential uber-studs in Rudi, McGahee, Davis, J Jones, K Jones...

In reality, I'm torn on the issue of when to draft Manning in R1. I looked up some numbers on Manning and let's look at them:

Since 2001 (4 years) Peyton has been a top 5 fantasy QB every year, top 3 the last 3.
Since 2001 (4 years) Peyton has yardage totals of 4,131/4,200/4,267/4,557
Since 2001 (4 years) Peyton has TD totals of 26/27/29/49
Since 2001 (4 years) Peyton has INT totals of 23/19/10/10

So, aside from 2004, Peyton has consistently a 4,200 yard 27 TD QB. Hell, in his 3 seasons prior to 2001, he only failed to pass for 4,100 yards once - his rookie season and he has NEVER passed for fewer than 26 TDs. The key is he is consistent, methodical and has dramatically decreased the INTs.

In 2001, there were 7 QBs to reach 26 passing TDs and 5 of them reached at least 3,800 passing yards.

In 2002, there were 6 QBs to reach 26 passing TDs and 3 of them reached at least 3,800 passing yards.

In 2003, there were 5 QBs to reach 26 passing TDs and 3 of them reached at least 3,800 passing yards.

In 2004, there were 9 QBs to reach 27 passing TDs and 7 of them reached at least 3,800 passing yards.

So, as I look at the numbers, I'm saying "wow". Manning was a model of consistency from 2001-2003 as the number of QBs with 3800/26+ declined. Then, he was one of many in 2004 that surpassed that mark.

All this says is that Manning is good for 4,600 yards and 27 TDs looking at his body of work since 1998. That's greatness. The other thing is, was 2004 a fluke for all QBs or will we continue to see a half dozen or so QBs also push for the 4,000 yard/30 TD club?

Will Manning get near 40 TDs again? That's a hell of a tough mark to achieve once, much less twice in a row.

If the trend continues, and you pass on Manning early for a top 10 RB ... you could reap the rewards of doing your homework. That's how I look at it and that's the risk I would take when confronting the notion of picking Manning with a high R1 pick.

You really have to project the RB value sitting there for your #2 pick. Is it worth taking Manning in R1, the 18th overall RB in R2, then going WR or your second RB in R3?

Did that muddy the waters for you?

[MileHighMania]

Oh yeah ... back to the essence of your question. (sorry)

I think Manning is the only sure fire R1 selection. I would take 8-10 RBs and possibly a WR or two before I take a McNabb or Culpepper.

Culpepper blew up in 2004, but previously he was pretty inconsisitent. There will be an adjustment period for Culpepper and while I think he'll still do well, he's a bit more mortal now without Moss until the others step up - more like a 3,500 yard / 25 TD QB and there should be a 8-10 of those guys this year.

McNabb never had more than 3,400 passing yards or 25 TDs prior to 2004 when he blew up. So, just like Culpepper, I think he can be great, but no better than another 8-10 QBs.

I wouldn't draft either of them until late R2 at the very earliest based on the depth of the talent pool at RB and WR.

Essentially, let's see if 2004 was a fluke for QBs. I think Manning has the only proven track record to state the case for being the #1 overall QB in fantasy football. His track record is also the only reason I would draft him in R1.

If 2004 was not a fluke then look out, because there will be a handful of QBs drafted in Rounds 3-5 that will freaking amaze you. Guys like Carr, Brees, Palmer, etc - these will likely be the starting QBs for teams that drafted 2 top 20 RBs and a top 10 WR in the first 3 rounds.

[yavoon]

#6 overall...

Tomlinson, Holmes, Alexander are looking to be the top 3 picks overall in most leagues. Then, you have the guy at #4 looking at Manning vs the likes of proven studs from the past in McAllister, Portis, James, Green, Lewis, Tiki and Dillon. Can Portis and Deuce rebound? Will Edge keep pace on yardage and more shots at the end zone? How will Lewis respond after this past offseason? Will Tiki and Dillon continue to impress?

As well, you have potential uber-studs in Rudi, McGahee, Davis, J Jones, K Jones...

In reality, I'm torn on the issue of when to draft Manning in R1. I looked up some numbers on Manning and let's look at them:

Since 2001 (4 years) Peyton has been a top 5 fantasy QB every year, top 3 the last 3.
Since 2001 (4 years) Peyton has yardage totals of 4,131/4,200/4,267/4,557
Since 2001 (4 years) Peyton has TD totals of 26/27/29/49
Since 2001 (4 years) Peyton has INT totals of 23/19/10/10

So, aside from 2004, Peyton has consistently a 4,200 yard 27 TD QB. Hell, in his 3 seasons prior to 2001, he only failed to pass for 4,100 yards once - his rookie season and he has NEVER passed for fewer than 26 TDs. The key is he is consistent, methodical and has dramatically decreased the INTs.

In 2001, there were 7 QBs to reach 26 passing TDs and 5 of them reached at least 3,800 passing yards.

In 2002, there were 6 QBs to reach 26 passing TDs and 3 of them reached at least 3,800 passing yards.

In 2003, there were 5 QBs to reach 26 passing TDs and 3 of them reached at least 3,800 passing yards.

In 2004, there were 9 QBs to reach 27 passing TDs and 7 of them reached at least 3,800 passing yards.

So, as I look at the numbers, I'm saying "wow". Manning was a model of consistency from 2001-2003 as the number of QBs with 3800/26+ declined. Then, he was one of many in 2004 that surpassed that mark.

All this says is that Manning is good for 4,600 yards and 27 TDs looking at his body of work since 1998. That's greatness. The other thing is, was 2004 a fluke for all QBs or will we continue to see a half dozen or so QBs also push for the 4,000 yard/30 TD club?

Will Manning get near 40 TDs again? That's a hell of a tough mark to achieve once, much less twice in a row.

If the trend continues, and you pass on Manning early for a top 10 RB ... you could reap the rewards of doing your homework. That's how I look at it and that's the risk I would take when confronting the notion of picking Manning with a high R1 pick.

You really have to project the RB value sitting there for your #2 pick. Is it worth taking Manning in R1, the 18th overall RB in R2, then going WR or your second RB in R3?

Did that muddy the waters for you?

no way on gods earth should manning slip past the first. i think to some degree rb's are overrated, there are always some who are amazing and give uber points, but they are not as guarenteed as ppl think. deuce was uber stud 2 years ago, what happened last year? rb's fluctuate, get injurd, share time, all sorts of stuff.

peyton doesn't. never been injured, never thrown for less than 4k(maybe his rookie year was like 3800), and throws a ton of tds.

[-Slap-]

Yeah, it's really too bad Taylor doesn't get the credit he deserves. Most folks would never guess he started 46 consecutive games dating back to week 15 last season. Running backs made of glass don't start that many games in a row. It just doesn't happen.

It doesn't take a long time to gain a bad reputation, but it takes a long time to lose one. Those early injury prone years branded him as Fragile Fred in many people's eyes and they can't see him any other way.

[MileHighMania]

no way on gods earth should manning slip past the first. i think to some degree rb's are overrated, there are always some who are amazing and give uber points, but they are not as guarenteed as ppl think. deuce was uber stud 2 years ago, what happened last year? rb's fluctuate, get injurd, share time, all sorts of stuff.

peyton doesn't. never been injured, never thrown for less than 4k(maybe his rookie year was like 3800), and throws a ton of tds.

I wouldn't think that he would slip past round 1 in 99.78245% of all leagues.

[Beantown Bronco]

We all thought the rules favored offenses going into last season. We were right. Now, the rules have been tweaked a little more in favor of offense; so I doubt QB numbers will drop that much after last season's explosion, if at all.

Manning single-handedly won at least 4 weeks for me last season. How many people's running backs could say that for them?

[MileHighMania]

We all thought the rules favored offenses going into last season. We were right. Now, the rules have been tweaked a little more in favor of offense; so I doubt QB numbers will drop that much after last season's explosion, if at all.

Manning single-handedly won at least 4 weeks for me last season. How many people's running backs could say that for them?

I am still confused by the production in 2004 and trying to make sense of it. :crazy:

Example, I had Manning last year and I won the league title. It was the first time a team with Manning in that league won the title.

I looked at the weekly numbers for my team during the playoffs and while Manning secured my winning by 30 or more points in many weeks, my backup QB (Delhomme) would have won the exact same games had I started him.

My RBs of Martin, Droughns and WRs of Muhsin, Horn, Burleson and Mason were all off the charts the weeks I started them.

So, in my case and that's probably why I'm sticking with the get as many good RBs as you can and take a QB later strategy. I admit that my RBs weren't the guys drafted high and I was lucky in the sense that all my players decided to rock in the same season.

It's one of the fun and frustrating things about fantasy football ... there is no one answer or clear strategy on building a team. I think you spend your first 5 picks choosing players with the least chance to fail you and then spend the first month watching the waiver wire and making calculated trades.

There should again be 8-10 QBs that surpass that combined 3,800 yard / 25 TD barrier and another 10-14 RBs that reach that 1,100 yard / 10 TD mark... if you do your homework, plot where you think they'll fall and then get a bit lucky during the draft - you should have a nice team.

[Rascal]

Mania,

Did you draft Manning last year? I was looking at your website and if so you had a very interesting team (ie I'm suprised you won based on the draft day results).

[Rascal]

I've heard numerous rumours recently that Dom Davis isn't going to be the top fantasy back that many expect after his numbers last year. With them spending the #76th pick on Morency and Dom's history of injuries, I wouldn't be suprised to see Dom have a lesser role. Instead of being a round 1 RB, he might be worth only taking in early round 3/end of round 2.

If Ricky Williams comes back I also think that dramatically lowers Ronnie Browns value. He is probably a mid 40 pick right now, but if Ricky comes back he will probably drop to low 50's. How valuable Ricky will be though should he come back is a huge question mark.

Apparently Bettis is still feeling the effects of last season and said there is no way he can handle 300 touches again even if Staley goes down. I still think Bettis will get the goal line touches, but if Staley has recovered I think his value goes up to maybe mid 30's.

For those looking for a good WR depth filler I would recommend David Boston, Mark Clayton, Ronald Curry, Andre Davis, and Antwaan Randle El in addition to Brandon Stokley.

[MileHighMania]

Mania,

Did you draft Manning last year? I was looking at your website and if so you had a very interesting team (ie I'm suprised you won based on the draft day results).

My roster was completely different looking at players in week 1 and then the Superbowl roster.

I was really active getting FAs and I did 6 trades which paid off rather well.

I'm recalling from memory, week 1 roster looked like:
QB- Pennington/Brady/Maddox
RB - S Davis, Faulk, D Foster, T Henry
WR - Burleson, Coles, Holt, Calico, White

I wasn't completely happy with my draft.

I picked up Manning and Delhome in week 4, I believe.

I had the likes of Pittman, Taylor, Q Griffin, Bell, Droughns, Martin, S Jackson, W Green, Lamont Jordan and Zereoue on my roster at RB at some point during the season.

I tend to take a stud's backup when I can (Davis/Foster - Q/Bell/Droughns - Faulk/Jackson - Martin/Jordan). I parlayed many of these players into trades that brought me studs. It's rare than many trades work out, but all of mine did. The stars were aligned.

The following receivers also ran through my franchise - Burleson, A Bryant, Holt, Mason, Horn, Calico, Conway, Coles, M Clayton, D Clark, Muhsin, E Johnson, Rice, Pinkston and Dez White.

My QBs were Brady, Pennington, Maddox, Delhomme, A Brooks and Manning.

After all of that, my final roster was:
QB Manning/Delhomme
RB Droughns/Martin/Faulk/Jackson/Jordan
WR Horn/Muhsin/Mason/Burleson/Clark/Pinkston

There was a period during weeks 3-5 when I did all of my trades. I was doing 3 for 2 combos and things that I normally advise against, but I had the bug and thankfully it paid off.

Typically, when I trade 3-2 or 2-1 to get that potential stud starter, I have a secondary trade in the works with another owner to fill depth and again, it paid off last year.

My trade for Manning was just great timing. That owner was dead in the water at every position. Only 1 of his 3 RBs was healthy - that was McGahee, still a backup at the time. Also, he only had 2 decent receivers with Manning and a decent backup QB. Also, Manning hadn't yet exploded through the first 4 weeks.

So, I sent (IIRC) Brooks/Henry/Coles to him for Manning. On that same day, I sent Pennington and Taylor to another guy for Delhomme and Muhsin.

It gets really confusing, but I had a winning record at the time of my trades, but I wasn't dominating my wins. So, I was concerned about maintaining a lead and was really interested in getting Manning. Plus, my Panthers' RBs were going down ... my Denver RBs were question marks at that time... it was crazy.

[MileHighMania]

I've heard numerous rumours recently that Dom Davis isn't going to be the top fantasy back that many expect after his numbers last year. With them spending the #76th pick on Morency and Dom's history of injuries, I wouldn't be suprised to see Dom have a lesser role. Instead of being a round 1 RB, he might be worth only taking in early round 3/end of round 2.

I still think it's wishful thinking at this point to hope that Davis slides past the top 10-14 picks in most leagues. The drafting of Morency is just smart b/c Davis has injury concerns. I think he has great dual threat ability, similar to Tiki and would not hesitate drafting him - but, if I did, I'd try hard to get Morency around R10 for insurance. I think it's wise to get the backup for any RB that is slated to be a top 10-12 performer in a solid offense.

If Ricky Williams comes back I also think that dramatically lowers Ronnie Browns value. He is probably a mid 40 pick right now, but if Ricky comes back he will probably drop to low 50's. How valuable Ricky will be though should he come back is a huge question mark.

I think Brown is staring at a R3 selection right now, which could rise depending on several factors. If Williams does return and he is in shape, then yes, there's no question that muddies the picture. Still, I would draft Brown ahead of Williams and I personally would not draft Williams right now. He hasn't played in a year, will likely serve a 4 game suspension the first month and he's reported to be well under his previous playing weight. The Dolphins have inconsistentcy at QB and WR, so selecting any Dolphin as a starter for your team is still risky in my opinion.

Apparently Bettis is still feeling the effects of last season and said there is no way he can handle 300 touches again even if Staley goes down. I still think Bettis will get the goal line touches, but if Staley has recovered I think his value goes up to maybe mid 30's.

This is a situation that I will avoid. Too much unknown about what Bettis can do again and the health status with Staley. Also, reports are the Steelers plan to "open up" the passing game more. I wouldn't draft either RB higher than my #3 at this point and hope for the best.

For those looking for a good WR depth filler I would recommend David Boston, Mark Clayton, Ronald Curry, Andre Davis, and Antwaan Randle El in addition to Brandon Stokley.

I like all of those guys except Boston. The guy is returning from injury that kept him out all of last year. Boston has really only produced twice since 2001 - once with AZ and the other with SD. Looking at the QB issues and just the team in general in year 1 under Saban, I have a low trust factor. I think Boston will be there when you are filling out your 6th receiver spot.

I really like the other guys though for those #3-5 spots.

[Beantown Bronco]

There will be no suspension for Ricky. The way I understand it, because he sat out the season, that time off nullifies any potential suspension he had coming.

[MileHighMania]

I had not looked for the latest on the Ricky issue, but even if he doesn't serve a suspension I'm avoiding him entirely. Unless it's a midseason pickup or trade, I'm not going to spend a draft pick on him unless something crazy happys between now and then.

[Arkie]

Anyone have any theories as to why Rudi Johnson isn't getting much pub as a #1 fantasy back? He had a great year last year and should easily match those #s this year.

Will Chris Perry cut into Rudi's carries? He only had 2 carries last year compared to 361 carries for Rudi. I know they drafted Perry for his hands. Rudi only had 15 catches last year. I believe they're counting on Perry, but he could be a bust.