Why?

[UltimateHoboW/Shotgun]

I have to be honest I'm not a Clarette fan. I feel that at his second combine viste, he gave up on himself and feel that he could give up during a game or the season. But the thing is I have complete faith in our system and how we choice RB's. So the last couple of days I kept thinking "why on God's green earth did the Broncos draft Clarette." So then I thought why did they draft him. The I remembered that he was graded last year too. And last year he was graded as high as a 1st rounder. Also I remembered that when Adam Scheftern(sp) said that Shannahan really liked Clarette and was willing to draft him then.

[SoCalBronco]

Here is why:
1. We really like Maurice Clarett the football player. Maurice was the no. 1 RB in America coming out of high school. He graduated early so that he could enroll at Ohio State in the spring, become acclimated with the system and make an impact from day one. From day 1, the whole nation could tell he was a special back. He has great vision, great build, power and a nice football burst. He has football speed. Very good tools. Excellent football instincts. How many true freshman can dominate not only against Division 1A competition but in the rigors of the Big 10. Clarett has undeniable Top 15 football talent. There have been several objections, i will state and reply to each.
1. "Character Issues"- Maurice has a well documented history of being involved in several controversies. Certainly there is risk involved. I personally do not believe all of them are his doing, but certainly he has contributed to many of them. Maurice was perhaps unprepared for college life and just life in general in the spotlight. He did in fact make mistakes. The argument Freek and I have made this offseason was that it would be very wise to invest a 6th rounder on him. Put simply, the vast majority of Day 2 picks do not have anywhere near the talent level he possesses. Being a late round selection also carries little risk if he does not pan out. 7th round draft picks have a 33 percent chance of making an NFL roster to say nothing of making any kind of meaningful contribution. By contrast, 5th round selections only have a 50 percent chance of making the roster alone. Here, merely because we selected Maurice somewhat higher than where i would have liked to have gotten him does not make the acquisition prohibitively dangerous in my view. No one expected Denver to get 2 compensatory thirds. The consensus among those (on KFFL) well versed in the past tendencies of the NFL compensatory system was that Denver would get a 3rd or 4th, ofcourse with these picks coming at the end of the round. One can make the argument that we got an extra third (in reality an early fourth) for free. If we are to look at it from this perspective than there is literally no risk involved. Even if we are not to look at it from this perspective, what we have here is essentially a very early fourth/very late third investment in Maurice Clarett. What is the level of risk for Denver and what would we have likely done otherwise? Consider the following statistics. In the last five years of drafting, our "hit" rate for third round picks has been 25% and for fourth round picks has been a FLAT ZERO. I am using both because there is some debate as to the characterization of the clarett pick. Is it a "really late third" or a "really early fourth", as the selection is between the end and beginning of the normal 3rd and 4th round. If we merge these percentages, there was ONLY a 12.5 percent likelihood, based on the last five years of drafting that we would have a "hit" (my characterization is subjective to be sure, but i can go into more detail if you like) anyways so its highly likely the pick we would have otherwise made was not going to pan out anyway. I also believe Clarett's character concerns are overstated since he KNOWS this is his last shot and he has EVERY INCENTIVE not to mess up. I believe the risk reward ratio is still firmly in Denver's favor.

2. But hasnt he not played football for two years? Yes. But as i mentioned before he has the great RUNNING INSTINCTS. He has tremendous vision, a good blend of power, and just knows how to run and make plays. These things do not go away. They are inherent. You have it or you dont. This is dissimilar from muscle mass or muscle memory which can be built up or destroyed. We are talking purely running instincts.

3. We are fine at RB. No, we are not. We have Tatum Bell, an emerging runner who has the skills to be superb. He hits the hole FAST, is improving in his vision and tackle breaking ability. Tatum is a fine back and should be the feature back this year. Tatum has had some injury problems however. To be fair, none have been really serious. But what do we have behind Tatum. I believe our RB depth is very precarious. Q, who was ineffective outside of the first game last season, tore his ACL. Its well settled that Q is a one trick pony. Put another way, outside of his jukes and moves he doesnt have much. Now the ACL is horrible for any RB, but for a back who relies as much as he does on his cutting ability and juking ability, this was and will be very devastating for Q. Now to be clear, i love Qs heart, determination, character and work ethic but he doesnt have what it takes. We saw it ourselves. Q can still be effective in limited situations where we get him in space, say with draw plays, screens or running pass routes. But so far as quality running depth goes, Q was inadequate before the injury. We also have Anderson who is a shell of his former self. He has no vision, he has no burst, he has no moves. Outside of his preseason performance against Seattle's scrubs he has done virtually nothing the last few years. And this was all before his painful groin injury. Droughns is gone. Dayne has proven nothing in this league. We have a REAL PROBLEM with depth should Tatum continue to suffer these small injuries. Now Maurice, because he is a power back (with on the field speed) will be VERY USEFUL in short yardage at least. He can power it. He can push the pile. He is consistently good between the tackles.

4. But couldnt we have picked another back? Yes, but when it comes to RBs who are we to question the Broncos. Surely, any fan of any team can say that "the coaches" know more about the fans" and then at times fans can point to a list of RB bust selections for the argument that "just cause their coaches doesnt mean they know it all". With Denver its different. We consistently have an eye for talent and we consistently have plugged backs in who flourish in our system. Here we must defer to the coaches based not only on the fact that they know more about football and the back ideal for their system but more so because they have a proven track record in this area.

[DBroncos4life]

Bottom line is he is a Bronco now and thats it. The NFL gave us a free pick and thats what we got with it. We will just have to wait and see what happens next won't we?

[labronco]

Yo, Socal. Do me a favor and work on your resume. And send it to the Post. I definitely think you can replace that Bill Williamson guy on Denver Post.

[DBroncos4life]

Its going to be a long hard road for Clarett thats for sure. Nothing will be handed to him either. I think he's going to have a hard time beating Bell out period, but thats just me. I really think the world of Bell. One thing that Clarett does give us is another back that can catch. Bell, well he needs work on that. The only real problem I have with this is Im growing tired of 1 year backs. I want a Faulk, Martin, or Bettis type. Someone to cheer for more then a couple of year and then they are gone. Having Clarett and Bell isn't going to make this happen.

[SoCalBronco]

Its going to be a long hard road for Clarett thats for sure. Nothing will be handed to him either. I think he's going to have a hard time beating Bell out period, but thats just me. I really think the world of Bell. One thing that Clarett does give us is another back that can catch. Bell, well he needs work on that. The only real problem I have with this is Im growing tired of 1 year backs. I want a Faulk, Martin, or Bettis type. Someone to cheer for more then a couple of year and then they are gone. Having Clarett and Bell isn't going to make this happen.

Yep, i love Bell too and i think he will win the job. Bell has great talent and he is still scratching the surface. He can be a monster this year. Get Maurice a whole bunch of reps this offseason and he will be a good sidekick as well. Speed and Power. A great 1-2 punch with Bell still getting the Lion's share of the carries but Maurice doing a great job helping to cure Denver's short yardage ailments.

[DBroncos4life]

Yep, i love Bell too and i think he will win the job. Bell has great talent and he is still scratching the surface. He can be a monster this year. Get Maurice a whole bunch of reps this offseason and he will be a good sidekick as well. Speed and Power. A great 1-2 punch with Bell still getting the Lion's share of the carries but Maurice doing a great job helping to cure Denver's short yardage ailments.


Hopefully Bell will just take it to the house and we won't have to deal with shortyards anymore!

[labronco]

I don't think Clarett will beat out Bell. Clarett will never have that breakaway speed that Bell has, which is why he was drafted so high after we traded Portis. I hope, eventually, he will mature enough as a person and player to replace (OMG, i'm going to say this) Mike Anderson. I am not sure Clarett is big enough to handle part time FB duties, though.

[UltimateHoboW/Shotgun]

Here is why:
1. We really like Maurice Clarett the football player. Maurice was the no. 1 RB in America coming out of high school. He graduated early so that he could enroll at Ohio State in the spring, become acclimated with the system and make an impact from day one. From day 1, the whole nation could tell he was a special back. He has great vision, great build, power and a nice football burst. He has football speed. Very good tools. Excellent football instincts. How many true freshman can dominate not only against Division 1A competition but in the rigors of the Big 10. Clarett has undeniable Top 15 football talent. There have been several objections, i will state and reply to each.
1. "Character Issues"- Maurice has a well documented history of being involved in several controversies. Certainly there is risk involved. I personally do not believe all of them are his doing, but certainly he has contributed to many of them. Maurice was perhaps unprepared for college life and just life in general in the spotlight. He did in fact make mistakes. The argument Freek and I have made this offseason was that it would be very wise to invest a 6th rounder on him. Put simply, the vast majority of Day 2 picks do not have anywhere near the talent level he possesses. Being a late round selection also carries little risk if he does not pan out. 7th round draft picks have a 33 percent chance of making an NFL roster to say nothing of making any kind of meaningful contribution. By contrast, 5th round selections only have a 50 percent chance of making the roster alone. Here, merely because we selected Maurice somewhat higher than where i would have liked to have gotten him does not make the acquisition prohibitively dangerous in my view. No one expected Denver to get 2 compensatory thirds. The consensus among those (on KFFL) well versed in the past tendencies of the NFL compensatory system was that Denver would get a 3rd or 4th, ofcourse with these picks coming at the end of the round. One can make the argument that we got an extra third (in reality an early fourth) for free. If we are to look at it from this perspective than there is literally no risk involved. Even if we are not to look at it from this perspective, what we have here is essentially a very early fourth/very late third investment in Maurice Clarett. What is the level of risk for Denver and what would we have likely done otherwise? Consider the following statistics. In the last five years of drafting, our "hit" rate for third round picks has been 25% and for fourth round picks has been a FLAT ZERO. I am using both because there is some debate as to the characterization of the clarett pick. Is it a "really late third" or a "really early fourth", as the selection is between the end and beginning of the normal 3rd and 4th round. If we merge these percentages, there was ONLY a 12.5 percent likelihood, based on the last five years of drafting that we would have a "hit" (my characterization is subjective to be sure, but i can go into more detail if you like) anyways so its highly likely the pick we would have otherwise made was not going to pan out anyway. I also believe Clarett's character concerns are overstated since he KNOWS this is his last shot and he has EVERY INCENTIVE not to mess up. I believe the risk reward ratio is still firmly in Denver's favor.

2. But hasnt he not played football for two years? Yes. But as i mentioned before he has the great RUNNING INSTINCTS. He has tremendous vision, a good blend of power, and just knows how to run and make plays. These things do not go away. They are inherent. You have it or you dont. This is dissimilar from muscle mass or muscle memory which can be built up or destroyed. We are talking purely running instincts.

3. We are fine at RB. No, we are not. We have Tatum Bell, an emerging runner who has the skills to be superb. He hits the hole FAST, is improving in his vision and tackle breaking ability. Tatum is a fine back and should be the feature back this year. Tatum has had some injury problems however. To be fair, none have been really serious. But what do we have behind Tatum. I believe our RB depth is very precarious. Q, who was ineffective outside of the first game last season, tore his ACL. Its well settled that Q is a one trick pony. Put another way, outside of his jukes and moves he doesnt have much. Now the ACL is horrible for any RB, but for a back who relies as much as he does on his cutting ability and juking ability, this was and will be very devastating for Q. Now to be clear, i love Qs heart, determination, character and work ethic but he doesnt have what it takes. We saw it ourselves. Q can still be effective in limited situations where we get him in space, say with draw plays, screens or running pass routes. But so far as quality running depth goes, Q was inadequate before the injury. We also have Anderson who is a shell of his former self. He has no vision, he has no burst, he has no moves. Outside of his preseason performance against Seattle's scrubs he has done virtually nothing the last few years. And this was all before his painful groin injury. Droughns is gone. Dayne has proven nothing in this league. We have a REAL PROBLEM with depth should Tatum continue to suffer these small injuries. Now Maurice, because he is a power back (with on the field speed) will be VERY USEFUL in short yardage at least. He can power it. He can push the pile. He is consistently good between the tackles.

4. But couldnt we have picked another back? Yes, but when it comes to RBs who are we to question the Broncos. Surely, any fan of any team can say that "the coaches" know more about the fans" and then at times fans can point to a list of RB bust selections for the argument that "just cause their coaches doesnt mean they know it all". With Denver its different. We consistently have an eye for talent and we consistently have plugged backs in who flourish in our system. Here we must defer to the coaches based not only on the fact that they know more about football and the back ideal for their system but more so because they have a proven track record in this area.


First off, awesome post.

I think Isaid this before but I'm not a numbers guys. I'll take a 4.6 guys that has a good head on his shoulders and instincts over a 4.3 guy anyday. But the thing with Clarette is that I'm not sold on his head.

[ro_50]

Good analysis SoCalBronco. As a sports writer myself, I'm impressed w/ the knowledge you bring on this board. Do you write for someone?

[DBroncos4life]

Well here is something to chew on as well.

Quentin Griffin - RB - Broncos


Quentin Griffin, already recovering from ACL surgery, recently underwent a second arthroscopic procedure to fix a cartilage tear.
Coach Mike Shanahan says he'll be ready in a few weeks. But one has to wonder about the future of Griffin after two surgeries and a lot of competition in the Denver backfield. We think he still has some upside as a third-down back in Denver. Apr. 25 - 1:10 pm et
Source: Rocky Mountain News

[UltimateHoboW/Shotgun]

I don't think we have to worry about Clarette starting and I don't want to put that kind of pressure on him. I think this season he just need to study and get back into "football shape".

[SoCalBronco]

Good analysis SoCalBronco. As a sports writer myself, I'm impressed w/ the knowledge you bring on this board. Do you write for someone?

Nope, Ro. I dont write for anyone. Thanks for the nice words though, i appreciate that. What are your views on Maurice?

[ro_50]

I think you pretty much said it all.

I liked the pick from the get go. On the field wise, Clarett is a solid inside runner, can explode through the hole, and he does have vision, actually, I think he had the best vision on reading his blockers Ive seen from anyone as a true freshman on the college level. Even better than Carnell's, Adrian Peterson. But I dont know if this has been mentioned, from watching during the 2002 season, he excels at picking up blitzes, especially from the quarterback's blind side and he puts his body on the line and does use good balance when he blocks an oncoming lineman or linebacker.

Off the field, he's a kid and he made a mistake when he took money and lied about it to invesitgators. Ive covered college kids and they get a bad rap for the most part. 90% are kids who play hard, and do the right thing off the field or court. Maurice got himself into a bad situation and it all came out in that Tom Friend article. He was being honest and writers have a way of impacting the way kids respond to questions. Ive seen some writers do that firsthand in press conference rooms and in this article, Friend could have somehow used his background in journalism and being a interviewer to convince him to talk about those things that happened in Ohio St. He did take money, but that type of stuff happens in big-time college football, its just a matter of if you get caught or not. He made a mistake when he was 18 or 19 and its not like he beat up his girlfriend or got arrested for something to that extent.

And the 40 time was blown out of proportion. Sure he ran a slow time, but that is not the best criteria to use on a running back. Its his vision, ability to see things before they happen and using those blocks to get those gains and also being a tough inside runner and a important thing is blocking. That often gets lost when talking about a running back.

And Clarett did the right thing by getting rid of that extra bulk for the combine. I dont know who he had during that time he was getting ready for the combine, but he got the wrong advice. He admitted he bulked up to the extent where he lost some of his burst. But he got that new attorney and new trainers and he lost the bulk and what he did was regain some of that burst by dropping that upper body muscle.


If you guys have seen Ronnie Brown play at AU, one reason he was the top RB picked was not just of his tremendous physical abilities, but his ability to block. That what separated him from Caddy and Benson. He was the best blocking running back Ive seen in college since I cant remember when. Clarett does a good job of picking up blocks and is willing to do that.