HEAV
04-23-2005, 08:23 AM
The very top NFL draft picks are overvalued. That's according to Cade Massey of Duke University and Richard H. Thaler of the University of Chicago. Their new study, "The Loser's Curse: Overconfidence vs. Market Efficiency in the National Football League Draft," says teams put far too much stake in their ability to identify the most valuable players in the draft, and therefore trade too much to move up to get better picks, according to the PHILADELPHIA INQUIRER.
The professors analyzed 334 NFL draft-day trades from 1988 to 2004 in which draft positions were swapped (the average move in such trades was 13.3 picks). They also looked at player salaries and on-field success, finding that over their first five years, players drafted in the first round spend about as many seasons not starting a single game as making the Pro Bowl.
The professors call the first pick in the draft "The Loser's Curse," and conclude that the last pick in Round 1, costing an average of one-quarter as much, delivers more bang for the buck.
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/11467362.htm
The professors analyzed 334 NFL draft-day trades from 1988 to 2004 in which draft positions were swapped (the average move in such trades was 13.3 picks). They also looked at player salaries and on-field success, finding that over their first five years, players drafted in the first round spend about as many seasons not starting a single game as making the Pro Bowl.
The professors call the first pick in the draft "The Loser's Curse," and conclude that the last pick in Round 1, costing an average of one-quarter as much, delivers more bang for the buck.
http://www.philly.com/mld/inquirer/sports/11467362.htm